Ren Hoek wrote:Now MSH, what you do you think of this Adelscum post, from another game?
If I have to go on that post alone, Adel places a lot of emphasis on meta, sees potential differences in opinion on the topic of lurking, and considers these two topics excellent to start the discussion with.
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scotmany wrote:You assume your percentages are exactly what the scum believed.
scotmany wrote:You assume the scum went through all those calculations before submitting their kill.
Personally, I believe I made a slightly different assumption: that the scum had a rough idea of how likely each scenario was, and that this rough idea resembled my percentages enough to make them useable. See the following quote from my original post:
MichelSableheart wrote:I'll use these percentages as an estimation of the chance that each target was chosen. I believe they roughly match the chances in Adel's plan [SNIP] at least enough to get an acceptable estimate of what the scum could expect to happen
scotmany wrote:You assume the scum would be willing to sacrifice a scum member to get rid of me.
Again, I want to reword slightly. I assume the scum is willing to lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway (which, I must admit, was another one of my assumpions, and probably the most dubious one) to get rid of you.
scotmany wrote:You assume the mafia could not actually think that I might have not been busdriven.
I don't think I made that assumption. Each of my calculations took into account a 25% chance of you dying. In other words, I estimated that mafia could expect you not to be the busdrivers target roughly 1 out of 4 times.
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Currently, I count four assumptions:
- Scum know what they're doing, and can think things through.
- When they try to kill Scotmany, different scenario's can happen. Scum are aware of this, and have a rough idea of how likely each scenario is. This rough idea is similar to the percentages I've given.
- Ren Hoek would almost certainly be lynched during day 1.
- Scum is willing to immediately lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway if this means that the Creative Director dies.
I have given arguments for all of these assumptions except #1, which I assumed was obvious. I have only seen counterarguments for assumption #3.
@those who claim I make too many assumptions: which of my assumptions do you disagree with, and why?
Apologies for pressing this point. But in a logical argument, if the logic is correct, and you agree with the assumptions made, then the conclusion will automatically follow, no matter how many assumptions were made. And if you don't agree with the assumptions made, you should be able to point out why you disagree with them, rather then just write them of as unfounded.
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Ojanen wrote:@MichelSableheart: Do you find Sensfan's behaviour regarding falsely referencing back to your quicktopic suspicious?
Looking back at the situation, no not really. In fact, I find myself disagreeing with Adel's assesment of the situation in the quicktopic.
Sensfan voted FL on monday, july 13th. Then the Ren Hoek bandwagon got to speed. On wednesday july 15th, he made two short posts against Ren Hoek. On thursday july 16th, Adel asked a direct question to Faerielord, to which Sensfan responded in the quicktopic (quicktopic post 15). Then, from saturday july 18th onward, he was discussing his case against FL with Ren Hoek.
He claimed he didn't drop it in thread, and definately did not drop it in the quicktopic. From the moment he posted his suspicions about FL till the moment he claimed not to have dropped it in the quicktopic, he made 4 posts in the quicktopic. 3 of these posts had to do with FaerieLord in some way or another, the other was a doublepost. He has not been saying continuously, explicitly, that he suspected FaerieLord, but I can understand why he claimed not to have dropped the matter in the quicktopic.
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Thanks for posting the quicktopic.
Looking at the beginning of the Adel and Yos wagons, I'm mainly getting stronger confirmed in my suspicions against Ren. The wagon there builds up too much speed too fast for me to believe there is no scum there.
Ren Hoek showed agressiveness towards Adel during day 1, but doesn't comment in the quicktopic till CKD and OGML comment along the same lines. Then he is completely in favour of an Adel lynch. As far as I can see, he is the main reason that suspicions become a "let's lynch one of them now" feeling, while bringing very little of an actual case.
OGML promisses to make a case against adel in the Quicktopic, then does so in the main thread. He has his suspicions, he voices them. Looks good to me.
CKD isn't very loud with his suspicions in the beginning, rather he builds up steam slowly as the others comment. From the Quicktopic, I'm getting the feeling that ongoing discussion reinforces lingering feelings. If that is the case, then he is likely town too.
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The most important thing in there, in my opinion, is the fact that the "Adel is attacking confirmed townies" argument has been brought up by Ren Hoek. I believe it is the worst argument out of all arguments given. The fact that it was first mentioned by a player who would have a serious agenda pushing the thought that he was confirmed town does not make it better at all.
Why is it the worst argument? Because at the beginning of day 2, Adel was not attacking Ren Hoek. He did not push for a Ren lynch, in fact, he explicitly stated that scot being the target of the scumkill made him change his mind on lynching Ren. That Adel did not dismiss the scummy feelings Ren gave him and remembered the possibility that Goat and Ren were scum together is not attacking confirmed townies, it is remaining open minded about players who are not completely confirmed.
There is no 'a' in Michel.