Newbie game 806: Game over (the scums win)

[Johoohno]

Vote count

(5 players alive = 3 to lynch before deadline)

Not voting:

d3x, facebook, sigma, Toast, Zachrulez

:arrow:

Deadline: 28 August (click this to see cowntdown)

[facebook]

Okay, I agree with you guys too about mass-claim. I also agree with Toast going first, however this is mostly because of the way Toledo acted. I think Toast is the most likely scum currently, however about now we need to start looking at the likely scum pairs (in my opinion) to make an accurate lynch.

Currently, I have no idea who I think is a good lynch out of Sigma, d3x and Zach. I have followed d3x's logic so far, and whilst it ultimately failed, I'm not sure whether to think he's scum. Maybe he has hoodwinked me, I'll keep it in consideration. Sigma has been hostile towards me, but that may have been genuine scum-hunting. And Zach has just not impressed me with his posts, just...kinda faded into the background a little bit. I'll needa do much reading back.

lol This post ended up being a small summary of my thoughts. =P

[d3x]

@facebook- I just looked through your Iso and that was the first time you mentioned Toast, although you had a few vague suspicions about Toledo. Why do you say that he's the "most likely Scum"? Please be specific.

[facebook]

I'm not sure how much I stated on this. But I felt Toledo's posts were too short, and a bit useless. So far,with Toast, I haven't felt he is scummy as such. But Toledo was in the game long enough to make Toast accountable, I feel.

And as I said, he is most likely scum because I am mostly unsure about you other 3, and he is the odd one out.

[Toast]

Fine. Roleclaim: cop.
Facebook is innocent, Zachrulez is scum.

I'm aware of how scummy I must have looked in retrospect, and I don't think I can really do much else to prove anything except answer questions as honestly as I could.

[d3x]

Why did you choose to investigate Zach last night? Why do you think you're predecessor investigated facebook?

[Toast]

I decided to investigate Zach because he seemed to talk less than anyone else. My initial choice was going to be you (d3x), but I decided that it would be easier to try to extract information by re-reading your iso than by trying to wiggle more information out of Zach.

I have really no idea why Toledo decided to investigate facebook. It might be for similar reasons, as facebook hadn't really talked much during day 1, and he might have thought it was scummy.

[d3x]

I just realize the implications of this.

Unvote

. For now.

[d3x]

Well, I'm a moron, that's for sure. In my haste to leave work, I misremembered and thought Zach and I had voted you, not FoSed you. On top of that, you are claiming that Zach is Scum, thus a quicklynch scenario wouldn't be possible {if he was already voting you}.

All that aside, I have some more followups for you. Please reconcile the following...

Zach doesn't interest me particularly at the moment

I decided to investigate Zach because he seemed to talk less than anyone else.

Surely you would think that we'd find it suspicious that you flat out expressed no interest in Zach, didn't question him a single time, and then all of a sudden you investigate him due to his limited posts. What made you change your mind so swiftly?

Also, did you breadcrumb your role? Or notice any breadcrumbing from Toledo? I would assume you'd want to look for it as you knew his role as soon as you replaced into the game.

[Zachrulez]

Fine. Roleclaim: cop.
Facebook is innocent, Zachrulez is scum.

I'm aware of how scummy I must have looked in retrospect, and I don't think I can really do much else to prove anything except answer questions as honestly as I could.

Ok, I was hoping to wait for massclaim to see if I could implicate Toast's scumbuddy. (Was hoping that maybe that particular person might try fake claiming.)

But since that didn't happen, and Toast is now claiming I'm scum, I need to come out now.

Toast is lying. I am the cop.

Night one I investigated d3x and got an innocent on him.

Night two I investigated Toast. He's scum.

It should be clear why I picked who I did both nights. On day 1, I clearly voiced my concerns about d3x's play, and they turned out to be unfounded.

I picked Toast on night 2 because of that extremely scummy hammer on HR. With a newbie you never really know for sure, but now I do.

Vote: Toast

[Zachrulez]

Post 333 is important to re-read at this point. It correlates with my investigation on d3x, and explains why I found him to be town after being suspicious of him on day 1.

It is also important to point out that despite Toast's claimed guilty on me. He did not vote for me.

[d3x]

I am much more inclined to believe Zach over Toast. Toast's investigations just don't sit right with me {aside from the other points I've brought up}. It doesn't seem like a Cop would just blindly sheep an uncomfirmed player. It also doesn't stand to reason that either HR or I wouldn't get investigated at the end of D1. I drove 2 wagons D1 and got an innocent lynched. D2, I drove another mislynch. Also of note is Zach's play in regards to how he handled me D1 to D2. D1, I made a move against Toledo and he was all over my case about it. D2, I made a similar move against sigma and instead of going after me, he was more directing the conversation and making subtle allowances for me {see Iso41 and Iso45 for more details}.

As I know my alignment and one of Zach and Toast has to be Scum, I am

very

curious to hear from facebook and sigma at this point.

[facebook]

Ok. Let's see it from the Copz PoV =P

Toast:
Facebook and Toast innocent.
Zach is scum.
Sigma or d3x are partner to Zach.

Zach:
Zach and d3x innocent.
Toast is scum.
Sigma or Facebook are partner to Toast.

Pretty much the worst position for Town. Because the information we've been given is such that there is no lynch that both parties agree on (Sigma may appear to be a good lynch, but of course, Mafia may have cleared their partner). I think I am leaning on believing Zach atm, because Post 333 does correlate with his thoughts. But then the investigating eachother is very fishy, although I guess at this point it's not particularly unlikely to happen (33% of naming the Cop as scum).

I will read back more. Also, looking forward to a post from Sigma =P

[sigma]

Morning folks.

Roleclaim:Townie

, in case that wasn't clear already.

I believe Zach. Here's why:

1) I agree that Zach's actions D2 towards d3x line up with Zach being a cop. He clearly had a completely different attitude towards d3x on Day 2.

2) Toledo's playstyle was predominantly lurking. It could be just playstyle -- maybe he was trying to stay alive rather than find a good investigation target, but he just didn't really read like a cop to me at all.

3) Toast hammer still looks scummy.

4) The biggie: Toast's night actions are not consistent with someone who had an innocent on facebook and suspected Zach enough to investigate him:

Zach doesn't interest me particularly at the moment

- I agree with his vote on HR, but I can't really think of much else to say.

I also agree with Dizzle in his opinion that d3x and HR probably aren't both scum.

To both Dizzle and Toast . . . how will this affect your opinions if I am lynched today and thus flip vanilla townie?

I will probably be a bit more suspicious of d3x, zach,

and facebook.

Instead of what-iffing, I think I'll just vote and see the results right away.

If you're a cop with a confirmed innocent on facebook, this looks like bad play at best. Why put suspicion on someone who you know for a fact is innocent? Why investigate someone who didn't interest you that day? It doesn't make sense. More likely, you were backed into a corner with your selection of the innocent, having already named d3x, zach and facebook as suspicious above and having already FoS'd me on day 2.

Conclusion: Unless there's something I'm missing, Toast is much more likely to be scum.

@d3x and facebook: Any thoughts on the above arguments?

[facebook]

Hrm. I have to agree with that. However, if that is the case, then you are his partner, Sigma. And you are putting an awful lot of evidence forward against him. So I'm a little bit nervous about that possibility, because I'm not sure who d3x would vote tomorrow out of us two if that's the case.

=/

[d3x]

Well frankly, facebook, I don't want to think about that scenario {voting between you and sigma tomorrow} until we've cleaned this mess up today. We are in MyLo. There may not

be

a tomorrow at this point.

sigma- My thoughts on your above arguments? You've ultimately said what I said, just in a more thurough manner. Obviously I agree with you. I am curious, though. No one continued the Role Claiming due to the counter on the Cop Claim. Why did you feel the need to claim VT?

@Zach and Toast- What are your thoughts on facebook and sigma? I want to get it all out there before this day has even the slightest chance of ending.

[sigma]

@d3x: I like using bold? No particular reason, just felt like making my first "official" roleclaim, even if it isn't really needed at this point.

Zach mentioned in iso 50 that he's officially on V/LA from now through Aug. 14, so we probably won't hear from him until after that.

[Zachrulez]

I've gotten a town vibe from facebook. Nothing she has posted has really stood out to me. There's also the matter of Random's exit from the game, and I still believe that is a town indicator.

That leaves Sigma by process of elimination. I've been pretty weary of him since day 2. He got a bit overdefensive on day 2, but I don't really have much of a case on him past that.

Still, if I trust my town read on facebook, I'd put my money on Sigma being Toast's partner.

[Zachrulez]

@d3x: I like using bold? No particular reason, just felt like making my first "official" roleclaim, even if it isn't really needed at this point.

Zach mentioned in iso 50 that he's officially on V/LA from now through Aug. 14, so we probably won't hear from him until after that.

Yeah, I leave for my trip a little bit later today, and I'll be back Wednesday.

Will have access from that point on, but I'll be kicking back with my time off work. You can expect reduced posting in that time frame.

[Toast]

Well, shit.


First, let me answer some specific questions.
The specific statement about being suspicious of facebook as well as d3x and zach was a precaution in case d3x and zach were both scum. I guess you could call it playing dumb, but I wanted to give off the impression that I knew less than I actually did, because the town gained nothing out of knowing facebook was townie at that point.

I've already explained my reasoning for investigating Zach. If it seems scummy, then I can't really think of anything I could say to make it seem less so. Again, if you have more questions, ask.

On to our current situation:

First, @facebook: I know you're town. Zach knows it too, and it would be stupid of him to put suspicion on you, because that would sway you away from him. Zach is playing well, but I hope you can see through it.

Again: facebook is innocent.

@d3x: I'm not really familiar with breadcrumbing - from what I read on the wiki, you just leave hints about your real role in previous texts which you then reveal later to help your role-claim. How does this actually help, seeing as scum can leave hints about whatever role they want and reveal it later? Also. I haven't looked at Toledo's posts for any breadcrumbing, but I will update if I find anything.

About d3x: He's either a very good liar or a townie. Pretty much everyone (myself included) believes he's innocent, although I am still paranoid that I'm being hoodwinked. He did lead two failed lynches, and although this is forgivable (I did, after all, get on one of those bandwagons), it's potentially very dangerous.

I'll re-read more about sigma and post an update sometime soon, but for now my opinion of him stays the same.

About zach's fake role-claim:
His claim that I'm a scum needs no explanation. His claim that d3x is innocent has two possible interpretations: One is that d3x is actually innocent and zach is using his knowledge of this to help win d3x over, the same way I'm trying to convince facebook. The second interpretation is that d3x is actually scum and that Zach is trying to cover him, but that would be a very unwise plan, as it would blow away any chance of them winning if zach is lynched and discovered to be scum.

So, there are two possible scenarios:

More likely:
Me, d3x, and facebook are town,
Zach and sigma are scum.

Very unlikely but still possible:
Me, sigma, and facebook are town,
Zach and d3x are scum.


Also, I completely forgot to actually place a vote, so here it is:

Vote: Zachrulez

Scum has a very good chance of winning right now. There aren't really many paths we can take.
I'm pretty sure we don't have a doctor or a roleblocker in this game, although d3x has yet to properly role-claim. Assuming I'm right, then I'll get NKed tonight if we lynch Zach (otherwise town wins automatically from my investigation result on either sigma or d3x), leaving the rest of you to decide between d3x and sigma.

At this point, the game is pretty much mirrored, as Zach and I are taking basically the same stance with different people in our investigations. I can't think of anything concrete that could prove my point over Zach's, so I guess we're playing to figure out who is more convincing. I'm definitely worried, because Zach is much more experienced than I am.

[d3x]

@Toast-

About d3x: He's either a very good liar or a townie.

I am actually an

acceptionally

good liar, but that doesn't make me Scum.

I've already explained my reasoning for investigating Zach. If it seems scummy, then I can't really think of anything I could say to make it seem less so.

My problem is not that your investigation seems scummy. My problem is that you contradicted yourself in investigating him. Why? What changed between this...

Zach doesn't interest me particularly at the moment

...and this...

I decided to investigate Zach because he seemed to talk less than anyone else.

Zach's posting hadn't slowed down at that point, so your comment about him not posting a lot was just as true when you said you weren't interested in him. Your actions just don't jive with your statements.

I don't like this statement...

One is that d3x is actually innocent and zach is using his knowledge of this to help win d3x over, the same way I'm trying to convince facebook.

In your example, you are saying that I am innocent and Zach knows it because he's Scum. You then say it's the same as you trying to convince facebook. In essence, you are saying that you are Scum trying to buy facebook's backing. That doesn't sound good. In fact, it sounds like a Scum Slip.

How can you be sure that we don't have a Doc or a RoleBlocker? That makes no sense. I have not claim and neither has facebook. The only way you can know the setup at this point, is if you are Scum and your team doesn't have a RoleBlocker. You would then know that Zach is the

only

Power Role.

@Zack- Can you please link us to a game where you played as the Cop {preferably one where you lived past D1}? Thank you.

@all- The most important thing to know is that we still have more than

2 weeks

until the deadline. No one should Vote until we are all agree on what to do. If we randomly pick one of tehse two and get lucky, we will have next to nothing to pick the other Scum by. There is no downside to being cautious.

[Toast]

How far apart were the two contradicting quotes you found? What makes you think that disinterest can't turn into worry? Like I said, for a long time, I thought about investigating you, but I changed my mind at literally the last minute, when I realized I knew almost nothing about Zach but had plenty of opinions about you.

I don't like this statement...

One is that d3x is actually innocent and zach is using his knowledge of this to help win d3x over, the same way I'm trying to convince facebook.

In your example, you are saying that I am innocent and Zach knows it because he's Scum. You then say it's the same as you trying to convince facebook. In essence, you are saying that you are Scum trying to buy facebook's backing. That doesn't sound good. In fact, it sounds like a Scum Slip.

It IS the same as me trying to convice facebook. It's an almost identical situation - Zach wants to win you over by pretending he knows you're innocent through an investigation. I'm trying to win facebook over by telling her that I know she's innocent through Toledo's investigation. The only difference is that I'm doing it to help the town win, and Zach's doing it to help the scum win. That's what's so scary about this situation: I can't think of ANY way of justifying my own actions without justifying Zach's. Our situations are, from an outside perspective, almost identical. I'm not good enough at this game to find a way to prove my point over Zach's. Some of you, however, might be. I invite you to ask more questions.

I said I'm pretty sure we don't have a doc or roleblocker because none of the NKs have shown a doctor (when two thirds of potential docs have been killed without yielding anything), nobody has been saved from a NK, and nobody has blocked investigations. I know that the chances of this happening so far are not unreasonable, but it's not like assuming we don't have one will lead to any problems at this point, when what we should be worrying about it is how to make it clear that I'm not lying about being the cop.

[sigma]

About zach's fake role-claim:
His claim that I'm a scum needs no explanation. His claim that d3x is innocent has two possible interpretations: One is that d3x is actually innocent and zach is using his knowledge of this to help win d3x over, the same way I'm trying to convince facebook. The second interpretation is that d3x is actually scum and that Zach is trying to cover him, but that would be a very unwise plan, as it would blow away any chance of them winning if zach is lynched and discovered to be scum.

So, there are two possible scenarios:

More likely:
Me, d3x, and facebook are town,
Zach and sigma are scum.

Very unlikely but still possible:
Me, sigma, and facebook are town,
Zach and d3x are scum.

Let's assume Zach/d3x are scum. Your quote is: "The second interpretation is that d3x is actually scum and that Zach is trying to cover him, but that would be a very unwise plan, as it would blow away any chance of them winning if zach is lynched and discovered to be scum." But that doesn't make any sense, because if Zach is lynched and turns out to be scum, you're saying that the more likely scenario is that d3x is town. It's total WIFOM.

I think what you're saying is that you think d3x is more likely to be town than I am, but introducing the WIFOM of "why did Zach-scum name d3x as innocent?" doesn't support your belief. (If that is, indeed, your belief.)

I'll re-read more about sigma and post an update sometime soon, but for now my opinion of him stays the same.

Looking forward to this, although I'm not sure what your current opinion of me is.

@d3x, facebook:

d3x already said that we have a long time to discuss. We definitely need to use that time; if we get to day 4, one of you two will be making the decision who to lynch. (Assuming we lynch scum and whichever of Zach/Toast is NK'd and comes up Cop.) All the information from day 3 we can get will be helpful to that end.

We also need to make sure that we get to day 4. If we had to come up with a lynch in the next 12 hours, Toast would be the choice, but we don't have to lynch for a while.

Along those lines, here's a look at the two voting records. Wagon placement is in parentheses, unless the vote was random:

Zachrulez:

Day 1:
iso 0: Zach votes for Toledo (random)
iso 1: votes d3x (1st)
iso 10: votes HR (2nd)
iso 20: votes Bond (2nd)

Day 2:
iso 46: votes HR (2nd)

Day 3:
iso 54: votes Toast (1st)

Toledo:
Day 1:

iso 0: Toledo votes for iPeanut (random)
iso 8: Unvote
iso 12: votes Bond (3rd)

Toast:
Day 2:

iso 1: votes HR (3rd)
iso 2: unvote
iso 6: votes HR (hammer)


Note that the final day's vote counts may have a different order due to people changing votes. That bandwagon order should be accurate as of the time of voting.

Not sure if there's much to go on from this. Zach moved his vote around a lot more on day 1. He did state at one point that he'd be willing to lynch any of the three he'd voted on (d3x, HR, Bond). He was second on the wagon for HR on day 2. All three of these are either proven townies (HR, Bond) or innocent according to him (d3x).

Toledo, on the other hand, his first vote was on Bond, 3rd on the wagon. This vote didn't really go against the tide of the town's opinion at all.

Both day 1 voting records look a little scummy to me. Zach voted for three folks, all of whom are either confirmed or people he has said are innocent. On the other hand, Toledo's only vote was later on the wagon and mostly piggybacking off of other's scum-hunting.

Day 2 is pretty straightforward. Everyone in the town was basically on the HR wagon, whether there was an actual vote or not. Toast's hammer has already been discussed.

Day 3 is self-explanatory.

Not sure how much there is to go on from votes.

[Zachrulez]

@Zack- Can you please link us to a game where you played as the Cop {preferably one where you lived past D1}? Thank you.

I have read as far as this so far.

I've never been a cop before, so I have no game I can link you to unfortunately.

[d3x]

So... I know you're officially on V/LA, but will we be getting the rest anytime soon, Zach?