Open 155 - Jungle Republic - Game Over before 816

[orangepenguin]

If you think that I'm a werewolf, why are you voting Noramp instead of me, OP?

Because it makes more sense for town to lynch scum first, not werewolves.

I explained this already. I've found three mafia. But we didn't have anyone contributing enough for me to find a werewolf. (Though when Noramp came in, this changes. One wolf down, one to go.)

Found three mafia? No, you didn't! You suspect three people as mafia, you didn't find anything yet! Unless you have proof, or unless we lynch them, then you haven't found them. You could be right, it's possible. But I don't agree.

[yabbaguy]

Change:

orangepenguin >>> tilting scummy

@OP-325: First off, if I had it my way, I would lynch a werewolf, because they're the ones who are actually picking off the town. Secondly, the only possible way you can tell mafia from werewolf on D1 is if you can somehow identify how many people are affiliating themselves with a specific scumgroup (2 or 3).

And if you manage to do that, well kudos to you. But I think you're misleading us here. Once an antagonist flips scum or werewolf, you may be able to have more of a read on D2 and beyond, but 325 is a crap insight.

Is this what you truthfully believe?

[ZazieR]

I would like to clear something up, I never meant to suggest that I was defending Falko, Hero. I was arguing that Flava was trying to push a bad case, since then Falko has played really poorly and has become a lot more suspicious in my eyes. The main issue with Falko in my eyes isnt the lurking, however, that is a big deal but its his backtracking over Flavas question. I personally felt his first answer was sufficient, obviously not everyone felt the same but then he went and changed his mind two more times and then disappeared. This is very scummy.

Is that so?:

And to say we should grill falko for lurking is really unfair, he may not be participating to a certain extent but sadly he is on more than half of the people meant to be playing. We need to get everyone else involved so we can get rolling.

Personally I'm not seeing a Falko case. Is it all based solely on him not wanting to answer the question asked of him?

[orangepenguin]

Change:

orangepenguin >>> tilting scummy

@OP-325: First off, if I had it my way, I would lynch a werewolf, because they're the ones who are actually picking off the town. Secondly, the only possible way you can tell mafia from werewolf on D1 is if you can somehow identify how many people are affiliating themselves with a specific scumgroup (2 or 3).

And if you manage to do that, well kudos to you. But I think you're misleading us here. Once an antagonist flips scum or werewolf, you may be able to have more of a read on D2 and beyond, but 325 is a crap insight.

Is this what you truthfully believe?

There are 3 scum though, 2 werewolves. We have to kill all 5 to win. The only advantages in lynching werewolves first is you could eliminate their faction first, reducing a scum kill. But if you kill mafia, it would cut mafia from 3 to 2. I think Mastin is scum because of his intense focus on the mafia and I am getting werewolve vibes from him. In this Lovers Game I played, I replaced in as a werewolf, and we were killed day 1 because my partner and the person I replaced focused too much on trying to kill the mafia. But the numbers suggest lynching mafia today, right? So if we're not killing werewolves today, then I am not voting Mastin.

Why would I say all that and not believe it? I haven't been paying much attention lately, but still, I think I have a grasp on what is going on, at least better than you do. A crap insight? Elaborate please.

[Noramp]

ya Zazie I feel thats consistent. He was talking somewhat before and now hes not posting at all. I said before the case was bad, now its better but Flava seemed to drop the case entirely when falko actually started messing up. Where do you see an inconsistency? I would prefer it in your words and not just posting what I said.

[yabbaguy]

Now let's analyze this, OP. Let's pretend it's our choice. We have 7 town v. 3 Mafia v. 2 WWs

If we hit Mafia, and let's say the werewolves hit a town each time.

4 town v. 2 WWs

that's MyLo. On the other hand... let's lynch a werewolf each time. (and have them kill town each time, at worst)

5 town v. 3 mafia

but we can now afford to mislynch at least once, and possibly more.

So yes, your insight is dead wrong. Werewolves are by far the more favorable of the lynches, and it'd be WW favorable to make the town think otherwise.

[Drench]

The Twelveth Vote Count: "Jungle Gathering"

Noramp

- 5 - Crazy, ChaosOmega, orangepenguin, ZazieR, Hero764

yabbaguy
Flava Flave

- 1 - Noramp

Mastin

ZazieR
orangepenguin

Crazy
falkomagno

- 1 - yabbaguy

Netlava
ChaosOmega
Cephrir

Hero764

- 5 - falkomagno, molestargazer, Mastin, Cephrir, Flava Flave

Not Voting:

If you see any discrepancies, please let me know.

[Noramp]

post 330, isnt this what I said and then was instantly pegged as scum? sorry yabba I feel like youre pro town but im just really confused.

[Netlava]

The Twelveth Vote Count: "Jungle Gathering"

Noramp

- 5 - Crazy, ChaosOmega, orangepenguin, ZazieR, Hero764

yabbaguy
Flava Flave

- 1 - Noramp

Mastin

- 1 -

ZazieR
orangepenguin

Crazy
falkomagno

- 1 - yabbaguy

Netlava
ChaosOmega
Cephrir

Hero764

- 5 - falkomagno, molestargazer, Mastin, Cephrir, Flava Flave

Not Voting:

If you see any discrepancies, please let me know.

Come on, let's lynch already. Yabba, thoughts on hero & noramp? Noramp, why don't you just vote hero??

[orangepenguin]

Now let's analyze this, OP. Let's pretend it's our choice. We have 7 town v. 3 Mafia v. 2 WWs

If we hit Mafia, and let's say the werewolves hit a town each time.

4 town v. 2 WWs

that's MyLo. On the other hand... let's lynch a werewolf each time. (and have them kill town each time, at worst)

5 town v. 3 mafia

but we can now afford to mislynch at least once, and possibly more.

So yes, your insight is dead wrong. Werewolves are by far the more favorable of the lynches, and it'd be WW favorable to make the town think otherwise.

This makes sense, I guess. So would it be beneficial to lynch Mastin over Noramp (for me, not you, since it doesn't look like you agree)?

[yabbaguy]

@Netlava-333: I'm taking note that you're the one trying to accelerate the Day here.

Basically I thought Noramp was scummy on my first read because he seemed to be asking a lot of strange questions that didn't really get us anywhere and parroted statements. That vantage has changed.

Hero, likewise. He's also been stepping up as he goes along. Scumtells initially were that he exhibited an emotional outburst in the face of perfectly reasonable questions, and the fact that he always asked the lazy "Why?" and "How?" questions, just kind of lazily asking for clarifications. This can be scummy as antagonists often want to blend in with the crowd, but have no reason to hunt anyone, just look good in the discussio phase. (they have no incentive to hunt scum, they know who they are)

He's been pointing out some interesting things that deserve another look though.

Falk, you need to post more. Your selective responses are a sign of someone who isn't playing the same game as the rest of us. You're not scumhunting like the rest of us. My vote stands, although I'm fully aware I'm all alone.

[DISCLAIMER: In my posts, "scum" can be either mafia or werewolves. I will distinguish between the latter two words as appropriate]

@OP-334: Uhhh... yes if you think he's a WW, but again, Mastin's consistent strategy is to always claim scum and selfvote so that the tells can be called null, and he has succeeded in that. I don't know how he behaves in multi-faction games, but you must take into account that this is routine behavior for him, town or scum.

[yabbaguy]

@Noramp332: What post are you comparing to?

@Drench331

: Is anyone voting for Mastin at present?

[Drench]

@Drench331

: Is anyone voting for Mastin at present?

As there is no '- # -' next to his name, no, no-one is.

(Fixed.)

[Noramp]

posts 4 and 5 in noramp iso.

[Crazy]

@Crazy: Your PLBPLA, for Hero, you just say "I don't get what you're talking about." There have been several points made, at one time or another, from several players, about Hero, including my own PLBPLA. If you don't see the merit in them, truly you'll be able to pick some of them out and point out their flaws.

I strongly believe that emotional reactions are not scum-tells, and that's the main part of the Hero case.

Ignoring that, there are quite a few players that are scummier than Hero.

@Hero-302: Emotional responses tend to come from when you've exhausted all your logic attacks and are resorting to emotion to get your point across. Often, scum find themselves running out of good logic because they know they're wrong, so this is more often than not a scumtell.

I've never heard that before, and I disagree completely. Townies are more likely to get frustrated if people don't listen to their cases, while scum often have an "as long as it's not me" plan in their head.

However, all of this is trumped, simply because this setup is open and has multiple scum-teams,

everybody

has the ability to honestly scum-hunt. Scum don't have to make up fake cases here, because there

is

scum out there that you don't know, no matter what your role is.

I would like to clear something up, I never meant to suggest that I was defending Falko, Hero. I was arguing that Flava was trying to push a bad case, since then Falko has played really poorly and has become a lot more suspicious in my eyes. The main issue with Falko in my eyes isnt the lurking, however, that is a big deal but its his backtracking over Flavas question. I personally felt his first answer was sufficient, obviously not everyone felt the same but then he went and changed his mind two more times and then disappeared. This is very scummy.

That's bogus. It was Flava that was making the big deal about the question, not falko. Should he have just ignored Flava?

The big deal that makes Falko scummy is the lurking, but that's it.

I haven't dismissed anything.

I only said that a Falko/Hero scumteam is more likely than Falko/Ceph.

And I've given plenty of reasoning against you. OMGUS wasn't one of my points, so I don't see why you feel the need to defend against that.

You put Cephrir in your town-pile simply because of falko's random vote. I think something like that is too arbitrary to be

mentioned

at this point.

Because it makes more sense for town to lynch scum first, not werewolves.

Ugh, not this again. Lynch anybody that you think is scum; that's it. Mastin is just overexaggerating his scum-hunting ability... there's absolutely nothing saying that he's right about the mafia team.

**

Noramp's contradiction that Zazie pointed out looks solid... I have to look at that some more later. If it is a true contradiction, then I am absolutely 100% happy with lynching Noramp.

[Noramp]

Crazy, you must have not understood or something. Flava initially questioned Falko which started this whole thing and then Falko changed his mind and said it was because of his avatar and then changed his mind again and said it was for a serious reason. This is extremely scummy to me. Do you not feel that this major backtracking along with lurking is not scummy? Did you understand what I said at all before you made up your mind to try and get me lynched?

[Crazy]

Crazy, you must have not understood or something. Flava initially questioned Falko which started this whole thing and then Falko changed his mind and said it was because of his avatar and then changed his mind again and said it was for a serious reason. This is extremely scummy to me. Do you not feel that this major backtracking along with lurking is not scummy? Did you understand what I said at all before you made up your mind to try and get me lynched?

I actually had thought you'd said something else, but as for this,

no

, falko did not change his mind, as I said a while ago:

Falko mentioned a BW on Page 2. I can assume that Falko wasn't saying he voted Hero based on a bandwagon that hadn't happened yet. I interpreted it as a "it turned out that Hero was a better vote than Ceph, anyway."

Falko's posts in isolation:

Post #0 - He votes Hero.
Post #1 - Sarcastic answer.
Post #2 - "Because the avatar."

His next two posts:
#3 - He says his vote for Hero was better than his vote for Ceph.

And to be honest, my vote for hero was so much better that if would vote for Ceph. In fact, I'm gonna focus in flava-hero instead flava-hero-ceph

And the one I'm sure you're referring to here, #4...

Because the vote of ceph can be take as random, meanwhile the subsequent two votes not. That BW in page 2 is fishy.

This is

not

an answer to the question, because he's referring to something that happened

after

his vote on Hero. How could he have voted Hero based on something that hadn't happened yet?

[ChaosOmega]

Dammit, Crazy, stop posting things I want to post. Post 339 covers my view pretty well. So, let me find something else to post about.

Aint a scum tell from me. I know it looks bad, but I've got many players who've used this point against me before, and were proven wrong. Done it in most of my games, in fact.

Really? Maybe the game's changed since I've played, but normally, scum tells are decided upon by the town as a whole, and not by the person making the supposed tell. Regardless of your point of view on the matter, I find it suspicious.

And another thing in this post strikes a chord with me. Your argument essentially boils down to that since you've avoided posting in many of your games, it should go unpunished. I'm not in favor of letting bad play slide because it's habitual.

Isn't there a rule against posting time stamps?

Well, you can't take a screenshot of your inbox and post it, but you can post the times you sent the PMs to the mod (I believe. If this is false, mod, please clarify.). So (barring if it's not allowed) do you mind posting the time you sent your original confirmation and then the time you sent your PM about the fact that you confirmed earlier?

[Noramp]

Crazy, Do you understand what Falko meant in his iso post 3? Is he just saying that voting for Hero is a better vote than a vote for Ceph would have been. That seems really scummy because he's saying that all along he had a reason but chose not to say it which sort of seems like he wanted us to stay in RVS by not bringing up a real case. This might be a bad point because I'm not positive when Mastin started posting but if his answer was before Mastin's post I think its plausible to suggest he wanted to stay in RVS as long as he could. Why else would he not bring up a real reason if he had it? And also he says he's going to focus on Hero-Flava, doesn't mention why and then never does it. This is also pretty scummy. flava did not do this case justice.

[yabbaguy]

Quoting timestamps is quoting mod communication. Trust me, Mastin and I were in a game where someone got warned for that.

In retrospect, I think emotion is a thin-air case myself. I'll still keep my eye on Hero considering his high vote count, but he's not as scummy as I thought at the outset.

Noramp, I'm gonna speculate everyone got on you because you mentioned a very arbitrary reason along with your theory. Mastin is more or less bragging. He may be right, he may be wrong, but the odds of him actually saying that from the random vote stage he's found all three mafia is a ridiculous proposition, and for you to even base theory off of that is ludicrous.

You're right otherwise, in my opinion.

@Noramp-343: There are situations when a vote without reason is permissible. Earlier today, someone told me that a pressure vote is sometimes better done when you want to gauge a reaction to someone and yet not let out all your reactions outright.

How is prolonging the RVS scummy?

We really haven't heard much out of falk, but I really don't know what's preoccupying him. I mean, I threw a PLBPLA in a matter of an hour at worst and he's taking days to analyze what's going on whilst he posts elsewhere. Alarms are going off in my head right now.

[Noramp]

prolonging the rvs means the town takes longer to get into the real game where we discuss real issues. This seems beneficial for scum because whereas rvs can be good to look back at in later days, in terms of a Day 1 lynch its fairly worthless because we don't know anyones alignments. This was my take on it. Do you disagree Yabba?

[orangepenguin]

Ugh, not this again. Lynch anybody that you think is scum; that's it. Mastin is just overexaggerating his scum-hunting ability... there's absolutely nothing saying that he's right about the mafia team.

Eh, whatever. I am keeping my vote on Noramp anyways.

[Noramp]

Orange can you remind what exactly your case was on me?

[Crazy]

(1)

Crazy, Do you understand what Falko meant in his iso post 3? Is he just saying that voting for Hero is a better vote than a vote for Ceph would have been.

(2)

That seems really scummy because he's saying that all along he had a reason but chose not to say it which sort of seems like he wanted us to stay in RVS by not bringing up a real case. This might be a bad point because I'm not positive when Mastin started posting but if his answer was before Mastin's post I think its plausible to suggest he wanted to stay in RVS as long as he could. Why else would he not bring up a real reason if he had it?

(3)

And also he says he's going to focus on Hero-Flava, doesn't mention why and then never does it. This is also pretty scummy. flava did not do this case justice.

1. That's the only way I can seem to interpret it, and his follow-up response to Mastin's question confirms that.

2. He's saying he

didn't

have a reason. The only real reason he gave was "because the avatar."

3. This can just be summed up in the whole "he's lurking" bit. It's not that he's doing something other than attacking Hero/Flava, which would mean he's ignoring that; it's just that he's doing nothing at all, which means he's ignoring this game entirely.

prolonging the rvs means the town takes longer to get into the real game where we discuss real issues. This seems beneficial for scum because whereas rvs can be good to look back at in later days, in terms of a Day 1 lynch its fairly worthless because we don't know anyones alignments. This was my take on it. Do you disagree Yabba?

The only use I see in keeping the game in the RVS is to incite deadline-panic. The only thing is, though, this game doesn't have a set deadline, so doing that would be pretty useless, since we can pretty much take as long as we want to achieve a lynch, regardless.



****

@Netlava

- You've said your vote is on Hero simply because you trust MSG. And now you're pushing to end the day. Well, there are 5 people on the Noramp-wagon, and with only 5 scum in the game, you must admit the chances of all of us being scum is very slim, so you can pretty much conclude there is at least one pro-town person on the Noramp wagon (as for me, I know there is. ). Even if MSG is confirmed town to you, you can't trust that he's right, can you?

[Netlava]

I've read through the thread and I suspect Hero myself too.