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[Ren Hoek]

You do understand that you can't be given a role, right?

I didn't, actually.

But if someone else would be willing to vig Budja... that be good.

Anyway, I agree with the plan, it's a no brainer.

[vollkan]

Vote: Jailkeeper

Let's get this over with. As Ren says, it's a no-brainer.

[Ren Hoek]

vote: Jailkeeper

[scotmany12]

Ehh, I didn't neccesarily agree with lynching FL, rather have tried to lynch scum. I have to read the last page. Jailkeeper is an obvious choice. Yeah, and no to vigilantes incase I give it to scum.

[scotmany12]

So you think I'm scum with Ren and FL and...budja?

As Adel said, this is a rhetorical trick and doesn't in any way discredit suspicions. I'm interested as to why you'd ask it, though.

I wasn't trying any trick. I wanted to know who he thought was scum. Never tried to discredit or anything. I already responded to this:

So you think I'm scum with Ren and FL and...budja?

I'm so tired of that rhetorical trick. Yes, I do have a list of prime suspects, and yes that list has more than three names. That I am suspicious of more than three people does not undermine the legitimacy of my suspicions.

Chill, I wasn't trying any trick. I fully expect you to be suspicious of more than three people given your ability. I was simply wondering who you suspected. I included with because I had briefly considered a four person scum team (no longer do after calculating the percentage of scum would be 35%).

Budja has pinged my scumdar. I don't like how all of a sudden he thinks FL looked scummy.

[SensFan]

You do understand that you can't be given a role, right?

I didn't, actually.

You're saying you didn't understand how the roles are given out?

Go read the front post now, then explain to me how the roles are distibuted, and who can get them. We can't afford to have people that don't understand the mechanics.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm in agreement with the plan as well.

[Yosarian2]

I'm thinking JK (targetting scot) for one team, Tracker + Bulletproof for another.

Yeah, that's what I would do. Course, I'm not a big fan of vigs.

[Yosarian2]

Ehh, I didn't neccesarily agree with lynching FL, rather have tried to lynch scum. I have to read the last page. Jailkeeper is an obvious choice. Yeah, and no to vigilantes incase I give it to scum.

Eh...at that point, though, especally after Adel laid it out in such detail, if we didn't quick lynch FL before he got back and he WAS scum, he would have used his one-shot right away, and either given your role to a scumbuddy or WIFOMed us into thinking he did. Either way, the jump from "The guy giving out the roles is confirmed town" to "town has no roles at all" would have totally killed the town this game, dramatically reducing our chances to win.

I personally thought there was only, say, a 30%-40% chance FL was scum (to pull a number out of thin air), but the risk of letting him live at that point was unacceptable.

[curiouskarmadog]

I understood the plan, just seemed...ehhh? The problem for me was FLscum would screw us later so we need to kill him now....but if FLscum was indeed scum, then he would screw us anyway, seemed flawed...but as Adel stated, it had to be quick....and it was...if FL was scum, it would have paid off.

agree with current plan.

got jailkeeper.

vote: Tracker

[Adel]

I personally thought there was only, say, a 30%-40% chance FL was scum (to pull a number out of thin air), but the risk of letting him live at that point was unacceptable.

that was my perception as well, and I wasn't expecting to have a much higher level of confidence against anyone else.

[Ren Hoek]

So, we officially have jailkeeper?

vote: Tracker

[Korts]

(0) Tracker-
(3) Jailkeeper- vollkan, vollkan, Ren Hoek
(0) Bulletproof-
(0) Vigilante-
(0) None-

not voting:

crywolf, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog

3 to approve

Jailkeeper has been approved.

[Korts]

(0) Tracker-
(0) Bulletproof-
(0) Vigilante-
(0) None-

not voting:

vollkan, crywolf, Ren Hoek, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog

3 to approve

Approved

Jailkeeper

[vollkan]

It looks like CKD and Ren's tracker votes haven't counted, probably because the "lynch" result for JK hadn't yet flipped.

Vote: Tracker

[curiouskarmadog]

vote tracker

[Ren Hoek]

vote: Tracker

[Ren Hoek]

Next voting block: Bulletproof, right?

[vollkan]

Yeah, Bulletproof

[Budja]

@scot, I did say it wasn't scummy enough for a lynch. I still saw FL as less scummy than Ren or Sens, but still a good lynch because of Adel's plan.

@Ren, examples? I think I have been straightforward enough with my views.

[OhGodMyLife]

I was hoping to get some more out of the account services qt before starting in the main thread, but responses there were slow in coming and then there was a weekend and holy-shit-FL-was-lynched, so sorry this post took so long in coming.

General vibes while reading, from the top:
- Ren's attack on scotmany re: random choice - I understand the position. Ren is appropriately zealous and aggressive. He's town. scot seems pretty weasely.
- Sera was at this point aggressively grilling scot and later in the day ends up scumkilled, this also looks bad for scot.
- cay's post 55 is a huge partner tell if scot is scum
- At this point I'm pretty much sure Ren is town.
- I disagree with my former self at post 87. I also have the benefit of Sera already being dead and confirmed town to work with though. Cay at this point looks far and away the worst from the ren-sera-cay discussion here and in the qt (discussion there already laid out by Nuwen)
- sera-Ren fight really got out of hand. Still think Ren is town.
- Adel is rubbing me the wrong way, focusing too much on theory/breaking-the-game and too little on analyzing the other players.
- Top of page six, Adel seems to be asking leading Qs of seraphim that are designed specifically to make him look scummy, not actually ascertain whether what he did was more likely to come from scum
- Sens' entrance is extremely underwhelming. Made even moreso by advance knowledge of Sera's town alignment.
- TDC has been notably tightlipped.
- I wish I had Nuwen's Diagram of Doom. I will be much less helpful than she was for game-breaking purposes.
- Cay's post 263 is mega slimy
- I really don't understand why TDC comes out of the gates with a Sera vote after barely commenting on anything during the first part of the game either
- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.
- Yuck. Yos' and Sens' votes are both also terrible. What is the deal here guys? How slow was this game moving?
- Ren is still almost certainly town. Budja's vote seems honest. Yos' feels like serious piggybacking.
- This whole wagon sucks. Budja, Vollkan seem like the honest participants. Yos and Sens' stick out as the scummy voters.
- I don't really understand where Adel's FL vote is coming from.
- Yos' post 350 is like a giant, terrible smear campaign against ren that entirely ignores the possibility that Sera is who the scum may have been busdriven

to

. If that is the case, they very well may have been targeting someone off the Ren wagon hoping to land a twofer.
- Sens looks extremely scummy throughout this whole push against FL
- Ironic that in post 382 Adel doesn't want to "serve as a pathfinder" for a mislynch but then as far as I can tell ends up being the major thrust behind the FL mislynch.
- Post 391 is a cheap shot from Adel. Its like a madlib where the blank says

Scummy Reason

underneath it. She doesn't even have to come up with her own, everyone else will just fill it in themselves after this post.
- Bottom of 16/Top of 17 - Alt hunting is a waste of time. It is unimportant.
- Yos could very well be attempting to save Sens by refocusing pressure on Ren
- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.
- Yay the coolest guy ever replaced Nuwen! (give me a break its the middle of the night)
- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.
- Digesting Adel's post of the QT... honestly, it looks good right up to Adel calling people being willing to go after Sens a town-tell for him. The wagon on Sens at this point was a whopping two votes. I'm pretty sure Sens is scum and Adel is either scum with him or totally taken in by virtue of sharing a QT with him.
- Goat's busdriver reveal: scot is town, goat is town, goat was (obviously, based on his flip) incorrect in assessing FL's reactions. I think the most telling reaction (and attempts to use the sera death) is still Yos. This also p much clears Ren, as scot was not voting Ren so if he had died, Ren would have been autolynched.
- Post 513 from Yos acknowledges that the busdrive makes scot town, but ignores that it makes Ren town as well, and that he's been trying to use the Sera kill to his advantage to press a Ren lynch. Yos is so scum.
- OK, hold the phone. Adel's quicklynch FL plan looks good at first glance, but on a deeper level it is seriously, seriously terrible. I don't know why at this point Goat is the only one who has pointed out that Ren is very very probably town based on busdrive etc but this fact leaves FL and Sens as the only really viable wagons left. So Adel suddenly comes up with some crazy break-the-game theory of why FL should be quicklynched no questions asked? I call shenanigans. Adel was saving Sens' bacon, pure and simple.
- It should have been clear from FL posting after Adel potentially blew up scum-FL's spot with the "lets quicklynch him" post and

not

swapping out scot that FL was town and not in need of quicklynching.

OK, that brings me up through the FL lynch. I'll look at these choices for roles that I need to vote on in the morning. One that sticks out as uber obvious is Jailkeeper targeting Scot.

Here's the TL;DR version of the above, distilled to its essence

As Good As Confirmed Town

Scot
Goat
Ren

Town-Seeming

Budja
Vollkan
CKD

Scummy and/or Didn't Make Any Impression

Crywolf
TDC

Scumbags

Sens
Yos
(Adel)

[Adel]

- Adel is rubbing me the wrong way, focusing too much on theory/breaking-the-game and too little on analyzing the other players.

why is figuring out the mechanics in play anti-town? with 14 living players, and most of them not having an especially solid grasp of the mechanics, I thought that was where my talents would best be directed.

- Top of page six, Adel seems to be asking leading Qs of seraphim that are designed specifically to make him look scummy, not actually ascertain whether what he did was more likely to come from scum

his post

I think the CEO is also privy to the quicktopic. But yes, I'm willing to comment on the task at hand.

That's a gutsy plan. If you were the Creative Director, who would get which abilities?

really struck me the wrong way, and I was trying to get some traction on him. I suspected that he was scum attempting to undermine my plan, or figure out what his team's reaction should be to it.

- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.

the actual post:

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

- Ironic that in post 382 Adel doesn't want to "serve as a pathfinder" for a mislynch but then as far as I can tell ends up being the major thrust behind the FL mislynch.

the entire post that one word "pathfinder" was drawn from:

Adel your thoughts on Sens? What do you think of his vote at the start of the phase? Your thoughts on his wagon? Your current position on ren?

I'm holding my cards close to my chest for now. I want other players to contribute more, and I don't want to serve as a pathfinder for the scum to get a mislynch.

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players?

I'm asking them specific questions in a specific way so that we can compare their answers, and the overall purpose is to get more even amounts of participation in thsi game.

Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt?

It is a direct way to get them to comment on the three active wagons currently in play.

Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

From a Ren-town perspective, how could these question possibly help the town win? It looks to me like you might be spamming up the game thread with pointless dialog in an attempt to corrupt the signal:noise ratio. Keep it up and I'll commit to mitigating that risk by pushing for your lynch as quickly as possible. Diarrhea of the hands is not pro-town.

I think it is one of the stronger anti-Ren posts in this game, and I think it is interesting that you focused on the irony. Chainsaw defense, I think.

- Post 391 is a cheap shot from Adel. Its like a madlib where the blank says

Scummy Reason

underneath it. She doesn't even have to come up with her own, everyone else will just fill it in themselves after this post.

Also, I'm heartbroken that you are not saying anything about Adel's latest.

I'm heartbroken that Nuwen is getting replaced despite remaining active on this site. Why do you think she has not been posting?

My theory was, and is, that because she has had serious RL drama with TSQ, and figured out that TSQ=Ren, she replaced out.

- Bottom of 16/Top of 17 - Alt hunting is a waste of time. It is unimportant.

have you ever played with TSQ? Do you doubt that Ren is an alt? If Ren is TSQ will that help you determine Ren's alignment?

- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.

why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.

- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.

how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?

- Digesting Adel's post of the QT... honestly, it looks good right up to Adel calling people being willing to go after Sens a town-tell for him. The wagon on Sens at this point was a whopping two votes. I'm pretty sure Sens is scum and Adel is either scum with him or totally taken in by virtue of sharing a QT with him.

It seemed to me that Ren was scum, and Sens was taking heat as an alternative to a Ren-scum lynch.

- OK, hold the phone. Adel's quicklynch FL plan looks good at first glance, but on a deeper level it is seriously, seriously terrible. I don't know why at this point Goat is the only one who has pointed out that Ren is very very probably town based on busdrive etc but this fact leaves FL and Sens as the only really viable wagons left. So Adel suddenly comes up with some crazy break-the-game theory of why FL should be quicklynched no questions asked? I call shenanigans. Adel was saving Sens' bacon, pure and simple.

did you note the posts where I explicitly stated that I did not Sens lynched? I didn't, and I still don't. His play has been sloppy, and he has been making sub-optimal posts regardless of what his alignment is. I fail to see a scum-motivation for his sloppiness, and RL drama seems like a good explanation. I see him as a relatively un-invested townie popping in and typing some words, and not thinking carefully enough about the game: mislynch material.

- It should have been clear from FL posting after Adel potentially blew up scum-FL's spot with the "lets quicklynch him" post and

not

swapping out scot that FL was town and not in need of quicklynching.

which post number should FL-scum have swapped scot out by? At which post number should we have concluded that FL was town?

Scumbags

Sens
Yos
(Adel)

why is my name in parenthesis?

[Adel]

- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.

the actual post:

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

more importantly, he wasn't actually lurking.

vote:vollkan for posting so much elsewhere on the site, just not in this thread.

Okay, a few points in reply:
1) As I said, I've had exams. I haven't been posting as much as usual anywhere, and I am only in two games atm.

2) Posted by Korts on Tuesday July 7:

SensFan has been prodded;

vollkan hasn't picked up his role and alignment yet

. If he doesn't pick it up until tomorrow, he will be replaced. CKD's V/LA is noted.

3) So, if we go to my profile and have a look at my posting since finding the PM:
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:11 pm
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:59 pm
- Mini 806 Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:05 am
- Favourite Book Tournament Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:51 am
- Mini 806 Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:56 pm
- Advertising Mafia Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:58 pm

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

this is how I check for lurkers:

unvote, vote:Goatrevolt

look at his last three posts in this game, and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Goatrevolt to see why

which brings up the same information volkan cited.

my stated reason for the gambit was "to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote" -- I wanted to poke vollkan since he was being quiet, and I am weary of lazy townies votes without thinking, especially during day 1 -- it makes later voting analysis much harder.

If I wanted to start a lurker hunt, I would've picked a legitimate lurker.

[Adel]

thanks to OGML's post I finally payed attention to this

I can't see scum taking what amounts to a 50/50 chance of killing one of their own, so unless GR is scum, scot is probably town.

Also, since they knew he would be busdriven with an accountant but did it anyway, it must've seemed unlikely for them to be busdriven (again, assuming GR to be town).
So either all accountants are town, or someone felt pretty good about not being selected. Not sure about the others, but I think the risk was significant for Ren there.

voting for Ren at the moment of Serapham's death: Seraphim, Budja, Yosarian2, Adel, vollkan, SensFan, Ren Hoek

vollkan - Head of Account Services
crywolf20084 - Account Executive
Ren Hoek - Account Executive
Nuwen - Account Executive
curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
Seraphim - Account Executive

my theories, as they occur to me:
1. the incompetent scum-team theory: they thought that scot wouldn't be a bus-driver choice, so they targeted him, or they thought that there was enough of a chance that he wouldn't be targeted that killing him would send the rest of the town into fits, and they decided to risk it.
2. GR is scum theory: goat picked the kill and the bus drive, therefore he saved Ren's bacon. He would have trouble explaining why he picked vollkan over seraphim.
3. scum-free accounting team theory: no scum on the accounting team, scum pick scot for the kill, no risk, or there is only one scum on the team who isn't crywolf or seraphim or ren.
4. suicidal Ren-scum: Ren is about to get lynched anyway, so kill scot, Ren (scum) is a likely target for busdrive (no loss) and so is Seraphim (saves Ren's bacon) but then so is Crywolf.

~~~

crywolf also replaced out of a second game that I know of at the same time she replaced out of this one.

I think that ckd and vollkan both would've had a reasonable expectation of not being targeted by a bus driver.

I'm not very willing to suspect GR right now, and I think that Sens is town.

I think that crywolf20084 and Nuwen would not target scot as scum for fear of getting the busdriver redirect.

I still have a really scummy feeling about Ren, and if I knew for sure whose alt he was I could correct his playstyle against his meta... but I'm willing to give him a pass, he could be BM or ABR or Guardian or Xtoxm almost as easily as he could be TSQ. I'm giving him a pass for now.

That leaves:
vollkan
curiouskarmadog
OGML
Yos2
TDC
Budja

as my lynch candidates. I do not have a preference at this time.

[Adel]

@yos, why don't you think it is scummy how goat grabbed the busdriver without consulting with you? You mentioned in the threads that sens not grabbing tracker should be a minor town tell, so why don't you think that goat grabbing busdriver isn't a minor scum tell for him?