Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[Kison]

Spyrex was a very optymal investigation target. He was the top suspect yesterday and the idea that he wouldnt be nked was a very decent assumption to make.

You were among the top suspects yesterday, having almost been run up to a lynch, with a few thinking of switching back even after you claimed. If this is nitpicking about who was more likely to die, I didn't even consider that when selecting between you two because, quite frankly, you both looked scummy to me, and both were among the top lynch candidates. There simply was more to gain from an investigation on you.

[populartajo]

Fair enough.

There is only one single reason why I dont like you. Why the hell are you alive?

Who is scum?

[Korts]

My thinking right now is that scum is one, possibly two of {ekiM;charter;Lowell}. I'm leaning towards ekiM right now, up next Lowell, and then charter.

X: I think it at least semi-confirms Kison that he backed me up. As scum the only motivation for it would be to further confirm himself as town, but at the pretty big cost of confirming a town player. I don't particularly think that would be a reasonable trade for scum at this point.

On Seraphim being NK-immune: while it would otherwise be a convenient fakeclaim for scum, coupled with the solo vig power of his neighbourhood it pretty much confirms him and leaves X's alignment questionable.

Seraphim: Did you inform X of your NK immunity before N0 was over? If not, when did you tell him? We might be able to account for a lost kill depending on your answer--we had a surprising lack of kills on N0 in retrospect.

tajo: please spell Howard's name correctly. It's not Rock, it's Roark, as in the protagonist of The Fountainhead. Thanks

Lowell 920: X justified his vote by claiming you're

active

lurking, not lurking in general. Active lurking is genuinely scummy.

Just a note to the town to be careful--Lowell is at L-1.

[populartajo]

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

[TDC]

Vote Count

Lowell (4): X, ekiM, HowardRoark, Kison
ekiM (2): charter, Lowell

Not Voting (3): populartajo, Seraphim, Korts

[Lowell]

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

Listen to the man. Let's make something happen with ekim.

[ekiM]

Yet this continued into day two, after several scum were killed. If Caboose was Italian, he'd have been down a doctor by that point, thus putting himself in a very vulnerable position. It's obvious that I am/he was a legit cop based on the accuracy of our results - why, then would he be more likely to draw attention to himself as scum cop over town cop? The way he acted makes more sense as town, because there is no kill to use to go after those guilty results; the only way to get those investigations out there is through this thread. If he was scum, he could have just kept his mouth shut and taken care of any guilty result at night.

I missed this before. Why would he draw attention to himself as Scum Cop? Because it's given him/you semi-confirmed status.

Not worth risking drawing the cross-kill though.

Similarly, I find X's 180 on the Caboose subject scummy as shit, but I'm seeing that people are writing Seraphim/X off as probable town because they claim to receive a kill if the other dies:

They've claimed to have an extra vig that gets enabled when one of them dies. I cannot see how they wouldn't kill the other ASAP if either were scum independently. An extra kill is a huge bonus.

...which I agree is a very strong point in favor of them being town.

Sera has now claimed NK-immune though, which is both mystifying and screws with that logic.

Yeah, this was before I caught that Seraphim was night kill immune. Assuming I have this right, they get a kill if the other dies. This still remains a fairly compelling argument for Seraphim not being scum, given that X is not claiming to have the same immunity.

That's right I think.

Why exactly are you all preferring Lowell instead of charter?

Speaking for myself, mainly the way he's doing very little scumhunting.

Kison, do you realize that one of the optymal plays yesterday was to investigate Spyrex?

I read this as . . . "Hey!!! I killed SpyreX to waste one of your investigations because I expected an investigation on him! Why'd you investigate me?!?!?" This is gold. Drat that pesky result.

That's silly. If Tajo is a godfather then he'd be fine with having drawn the investigation.

ekiM's 903- I've considered the possibility charter is scum. I just don't find it likely that he is.

WHY?

This is like blood from a stone.

901 is bad for justifying lurkervotes.

So you admit that you're lurking? Why are you lurking?

903 is bad for shotgunning

I had two weeks of posting to comment on, so I had a few things to say. I understand 'shotgunning' to be shooting a wide field of suspicion in the hope of hitting something. I'm not doing this.

In general, this post has the feel of someone who is trying to position himself as being active and pro-town, but I don't see that much that really hits hard.

As opposed to your Herculean scumhunting efforts...? I've said more in the couple of posts since I got back than you've said all game.

... also, charter's defense of me suggests he's town. A scum mason-buddy wouldn't try very hard to prevent his partner from being lynched. It would exonerate him and give him a clear path to victory were the town-buddy to die.

He's not trying very hard. He's saying "Lowell is town" without any serious justification.

Also, your logic appears to be "people who suspect me are bad, people who defend me are good". You know that's weak, right?

I've already explained why. Mixologist wasn't posting in our quicktopic, and I'm pretty sure that if he was scum, and had just checked his scum quicktopic, he'd hop on over to ours and try and figure out what I'm thinking. His lack of participation I think means he wasn't interested, which I think makes him much more likely to be town.

That's absurdly flimsy. One could just as plausibly argue that avoiding discussion in a QT is scummy. It certainly is in the main thread. And from this you insist so strongly that Lowell is town? This leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

My thinking right now is that scum is one, possibly two of {ekiM;charter;Lowell}. I'm leaning towards ekiM right now, up next Lowell, and then charter.

...

Would it kill you guys to provide a couple of sentences of reasoning when you say stuff like this?

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

People, give some damn reasoning or there is no reason to listen to you.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

Listen to the man. Let's make something happen with ekim.

Interesting how you start posting once you're in danger, to point the finger at the only other guy to have gotten a vote. Seems rather self-serving.

[populartajo]

Mike, what do you think of he claiming masons instead of neighbors?

Who are your other suspects?

[ekiM]

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

[ekiM]

Mike, what do you think of he claiming masons instead of neighbors?

I don't think it's significant.

Who are your other suspects?

Charter for defending Lowell based on nothing, that could be the action of a scum partner or, if Lowell isn't scum, scum looking for cred for defending a townie. The thing I just posted from Korts troubles me. Also X is not really confirmed at all now that Seraphim claimed NK-immune, so I need to think about him.

Why do you think Lowell is town? Who do you suspect?

[ekiM]

In post 931 the second-to-last quotation should've been attributed to Tajo, not Korts.

[X]

I've already explained why. Mixologist wasn't posting in our quicktopic, and I'm pretty sure that if he was scum, and had just checked his scum quicktopic, he'd hop on over to ours and try and figure out what I'm thinking. His lack of participation I think means he wasn't interested, which I think makes him much more likely to be town.

That's a pretty weak tell in my opinion.

Seraphim: Did you inform X of your NK immunity before N0 was over? If not, when did you tell him? We might be able to account for a lost kill depending on your answer--we had a surprising lack of kills on N0 in retrospect.

He told me during N2.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

No, no he's not.

Yet this continued into day two, after several scum were killed. If Caboose was Italian, he'd have been down a doctor by that point, thus putting himself in a very vulnerable position. It's obvious that I am/he was a legit cop based on the accuracy of our results - why, then would he be more likely to draw attention to himself as scum cop over town cop? The way he acted makes more sense as town, because there is no kill to use to go after those guilty results; the only way to get those investigations out there is through this thread. If he was scum, he could have just kept his mouth shut and taken care of any guilty result at night.

I missed this before. Why would he draw attention to himself as Scum Cop? Because it's given him/you semi-confirmed status.

Not worth risking drawing the cross-kill though.

But I don't think it would be crazy of him to have assumed there was a Doctor, whether he was Scum or Town.

If we have 2 scum left, I'm thinking that they might be Lowell and charter based on their unbased gung-ho defense of each other.

[populartajo]

I meant to do this tons of years ago:

Analysis of the flipped Italians V. 2.0 (now only with people alive)

Admiral

iso 1
iso 1 has some comments of the top subjects of day1 : ogb and mufasa. Ad shows an interesting fixation with Seraphim.

The oh-so-important random phase is "interrupted" by ogb claiming he is an alt. For some reason this makes him obvscum according to seraphim and rofl and others. I tend to disagree.

Mufasa claims joat really early. Why? Charter and seraphim then vote for mufasa. Even more why?

Seraphim says something about the "tone" in which mufasa claimed which is just a very poor and completely subjective way to keep his vote on someone who may very well be a town power role.

This overfixation with Seraph makes me think that Seraph is not an Italian and Ad was setting ground for future suspicions. Seraph -2

caboose defends mufasa. noted.

Now this attack is very strange. Ad thought Mufasa could be a power role. Why was it important that caboose defended mufasa? This attack smells so early bussing its not funny. Caboose +1

iso 2

ekim actually has some good points to say about the ogb situation. Here they are: snip
he also brings up a telling point against mufasa in that he doesn't have a vig, which could be used to test the role.

Adscum is less likely to support points brought by a scumpartner. So, this gives Mike less chances of being Italian. Mike -1

ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb...
I was beginning to like him

At first glance, I didnt like this attack. But now that I think about it, I dont think Adscum would bring unnecessary attention to Mikescum after he agreed with some arguments in the same very post. Its a possible distancing but not very likely. Mike -1

iso 3

Caboose continues to defend mufasa. If mufasa comes up scum caboose has to be next. I normally don't like chain lynching but this one seems like a gimme.

Ok, if we assume Ad is scum with Caboose, then he should have known that there were 2 scumgroups. In the scenario Mufasa had been a Russian, I dont think this was a very good attack against a scumpartner. This attack, as Ad himself admits, is very strange for him. Caboose -1

Howard Roark votes korts "for his contrived case against seraphim". Another example of a completely subjective reason to vote someone, furthermore a reason I don't agree with at all. He doesn't use any points to back it up either.

Unncessay attention. Less chances of HR being Italian. HR -1

iso 4.
Ad says Mike that his question is a bit loaded. Mike -1.
Charter and Ad have a sincere discussion regarding OGB.

You aren't the only one who has said it, so don't think I am trying to focus on you. But since you responded:

What kind of scum says his partner "dont think I am trying to focus on you".
Charter -1

iso 5 are answers to Mike and Charter. Overall vibe is that its not a scum-scum conversation. No points here since there is nothing very indicative of alignment.

Posterior isos are related to people already dead and one post where he supports my starbuck hate.

Conclusion:

More negative points are people less likely to be Italians.

Seraphim -2
Mike -2
charter -1
Howard -1
Caboose (Kison) 0
Others np

[Korts]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

[populartajo]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

And what result would you get if Seraph hadnt done anything that night?

[Korts]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

And what result would you get if Seraph hadnt done anything that night?

Ask Kison, he was the one who got the result of a Vanilla Townie's tracks.

[ekiM]

You got no message at all from TDC then?

[populartajo]

Inhim

iso 0

vote: Caboose

I'll be back maybe tomorrow, but I'm checking in and putting my vote on the most likely scum that I see. Mostly the doublespeak on voting OGB and reactions to Mufasa is my reasoning.

First vote and unnecessary attention. Caboose -1

iso 1

unvote
vote: Seraphim

What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

Sincere back and forth accusation with Seraphim. Seraphim -1

iso 2 contains some answers to Seraphim.

Doublespeak, to clarify, would be Caboose's alvinz spiel, which I more or less see as fencesitting (one of my favorite words in my mafia vernacular).

More or less, yes. I like to vote productively, and had I realized Caboose was sitting on no votes, I would have mentioned him, but probably would have wound up voting one of Mufasa or OGB.

Those two posts slightly lean to Caboose not being scum with inhim. Inhim wouldnt have called doublespeak on Caboose's alvinz spiel. He would have thought alvinz was a guilty result. -1

iso 4

I agree with Korts that Mufasa is helpful to the town alive rather than dead, but I'm not so keen on pushing votes on charter or ekiM, who I think are just headstrong town at the moment.

Charter and Mike. -1

Looking back at some of the wagon patterns on Mufasa, I'm returning to my Seraphim vote.
unvote
vote: Seraphim

Another vote for Seraphim. Seraphim -1

Conclusion.

More negative points are people less likely to be Italians.
Seraphim -2
Caboose -2
Charter -1
Mike -1

[populartajo]

I've already explained why. Mixologist wasn't posting in our quicktopic, and I'm pretty sure that if he was scum, and had just checked his scum quicktopic, he'd hop on over to ours and try and figure out what I'm thinking. His lack of participation I think means he wasn't interested, which I think makes him much more likely to be town.

That's a pretty weak tell in my opinion.

Seraphim: Did you inform X of your NK immunity before N0 was over? If not, when did you tell him? We might be able to account for a lost kill depending on your answer--we had a surprising lack of kills on N0 in retrospect.

He told me during N2.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

No, no he's not.

Yet this continued into day two, after several scum were killed. If Caboose was Italian, he'd have been down a doctor by that point, thus putting himself in a very vulnerable position. It's obvious that I am/he was a legit cop based on the accuracy of our results - why, then would he be more likely to draw attention to himself as scum cop over town cop? The way he acted makes more sense as town, because there is no kill to use to go after those guilty results; the only way to get those investigations out there is through this thread. If he was scum, he could have just kept his mouth shut and taken care of any guilty result at night.

I missed this before. Why would he draw attention to himself as Scum Cop? Because it's given him/you semi-confirmed status.

Not worth risking drawing the cross-kill though.

But I don't think it would be crazy of him to have assumed there was a Doctor, whether he was Scum or Town.

If we have 2 scum left, I'm thinking that they might be Lowell and charter based on their unbased gung-ho defense of each other.

Why do you think we have 2 scum left?

[populartajo]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

And what result would you get if Seraph hadnt done anything that night?

Ask Kison, he was the one who got the result of a Vanilla Townie's tracks.

Korts, why did you assume you were roleblocked rather than you tracked someone with no action?

[Korts]

I didn't assume, I said it was likely I was. I'd expect to be sent at least a "no result" if I wasn't blocked.

[populartajo]

Conclusions based in analysis of flipped Italians Admiral and inhim.

People not likely to be Italians, therefore not scum.
05. ekiM
10. Seraphim
19. charter
21. Kison

Neutral but possibly Italian.
12. Korts
14. X
15. Mixologist
17. HowardRoark

People likely to be Italians, therefore scum.

Seems both Ad and inhim made a good job not being too obvious with their respective scumpartners. Day 1 and not much posting from both is prob the reason.

There are some things that are important to notice. Why didnt Italians protect their Godfather night 1? This heavily implies that Italians protected a heavy suspected player, a power role more important than godfather or a very likely Russian mafia kill.

[HowardRoark]

charter's defense of me suggests he's town. A scum mason-buddy wouldn't try very hard to prevent his partner from being lynched. It would exonerate him and give him a clear path to victory were the town-buddy to die.

It neither clears nor implicates charter's alignment. Also note that I don't think we can use neighborhoods to determine alignment, only masonries.

I just can't shake this gut feeling that Korts is scum. I had him on my short list until he had that period of activity. Then he kind of thinned out again. His claim is believable, but he's also not a VI. Seeing the lack of Italian power (compared to the Russians), his could be a scum power role.

please spell Howard's name correctly. It's not Rock, it's Roark, as in the protagonist of The Fountainhead. Thanks

While I appreciate it . . . why? It doesn't really bother me. (I would have said something if it did.) Is it wrong to consider this buddying?

Just a note to the town to be careful--Lowell is at L-1.

I am always a bit anal with the wording of these warnings. Why are you warning "the town"? Are you not town? Why not "NOTE: Lowell is at L-1"? *HowardRoark braces for attacks*

That's silly. If Tajo is a godfather then he'd be fine with having drawn the investigation.

Thus the "drat" part of my post.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

People, give some damn reasoning or there is no reason to listen to you.

YES!

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

No, no he's not.

This is a very strong statement. Anything else to add to your case besides his lack of participation and defense of charter?

Why didnt Italians protect their Godfather night 1?

Perhaps they did and the doctor was killed first or there were multiple attempts on the GF. Remember that we only had those two kills N1 and four during N2.

Overall I am still happy with a Lowell lynch today. Even if he is town, his death will not hamper our odds that much. 2:5 tomorrow assuming 2 scum, town-Lowell death, and 1 NK. Also importantly, it will keep the more active players alive who are actually attempting to scum hunt.

NOTE: About 5 days until deadline.

[populartajo]

I just thought something.

Someone can use two active abilities the same night?

[ekiM]

"""

Amount of Night Actions: Unless otherwise stated, every player may only use one night action per night. This includes group actions submitted by that player.

...

Active ability modifiers

:

• Free: This ability does not count against the one action a night rule.

...

Passive abilities

:

• Multitasker: You can use one additional ability per night.

"""