Newbie game 806: Game over (the scums win)

[sigma]

Double-post: I'm going to post game rule 3, as I think it's important to understand at this stage of the game:

[003] Deadline: Each day will be deadlined to 3 weeks, depending on my real life issues (no extensions planned). If we reach a deadline without a lynch the player (or No Lynch) with the most votes will be lynched. In the case of a tie, the one who got to that number of votes first will be lynched. Should there be no active votes at deadline no one will be lynched.

Note that we don't need a full majority (5 votes) by deadline to lynch. Whoever has the most votes will be lynched, even if they have 4 or less. Bear this in mind as you decide where your final vote should be.

[Zachrulez]

Well at this point the deadline is 3 days away. There is a mechanism in place for a deadline lynch for whoever has the most votes, but I'd rather it not come to that. Allowing that to happen gives us incomplete voting information and is detrimental to the town IMO.

So if you're not voting at this point, you should consider doing so pretty quickly here.

[JamesBond]

Oh guys (and gals?), just wanna tell you that I wont be able to post for the first couple of days of D2 (pondering that ill survive), since I am going to Amsterdam for the weekend. Wont bring my computer and probably will be high all the time anyways, so dont expect me to post until monday.

Ill be here until thursday though, so I wont miss the last days of D1, no problem there.

[d3x]

Regardless of whether we need/should have the full set of 5 votes, we shouldn't have a hammer yet. We need a claim out of HR and a solid defense. As HR has said he's got busy RL stuff right now, I'd expect this to come at the last possible moment. Barring that, hammer away, kids.

[Zachrulez]

Regardless of whether we need/should have the full set of 5 votes, we shouldn't have a hammer yet. We need a claim out of HR and a solid defense. As HR has said he's got busy RL stuff right now, I'd expect this to come at the last possible moment. Barring that, hammer away, kids.

This is what I am waiting on right now.

[d3x]

Oh, and a real quick point of order. Here's the deadline countdown from Johoohno's first post. Please link to it and check it out. As of this post, there's less than a day and a half left. So Zach, watch out when you say things like...

the deadline is 3 days away

That's

very

bad form. I believe it was an honest mistake, but that could've been very costly to us. There needs to be a fire lit under everyone's asses right now.

[Zachrulez]

Ah, I didn't realize the deadline was so early in the morning.

See when I reasoned through it, I counted today, tommorow, and whatever part of the 16th we'd have to post before the actual deadline.

HR still needs to post like yesterday.

[Zachrulez]

And usually the mod will give a 24 hour warning before the deadline. So you're probably being a little over cautious.

[Dizzle]

@facebook
I understand that you're new and the deadline is approaching, but one original reason for voting HR would have been nice. Anyways, I also have some problems with your defense of JamesBond. As a replaced player dealing with your previous player's suspicion, you feel some sort of kinship with Bond. At least you admit that this is poor logic. Your 2nd reason for finding Bond less scummy than HR is even worse. You're basically assuming that Bond is town because he's a replacement? Sure, some newbs might quit if they're town and get accused on D1, but that's no reason to give Bond a free pass when the only evidence you have against HR is that he's "less involved" than Bond.

It looks like it might be too late, but I will be voting for Bond. The basic reasons can be found in Toledo's p.204 and I also have a serious problem with Bond's explanation for voting HR even though he doesn't really find HR that scummy. Self-preservation is understandable, but please don't vote for someone you don't truly suspect. It does the town no good and if you're wrong (which I believe you are) it will put a huge target on your back during D2. If anyone is wavering on their HR vote, I urge you to reconsider Bond.

Vote: JamesBond

[JamesBond]

@Dizzle: True about the replacement thing, noone should get free pass because they are replacing in.

Otherwise im not that satisfied that you are voting against me, but what the heck, cant really say anything that I havent said. I stand by my post, if you think that is scummy, so be it.

[d3x]

@Zach- I know I'm being overly cautious, but I think it's better to be exact in case someone's not paying attention. This will also let HR know exactly how much time he has to post.

@Dizzle- It's not too late to plead a case. I am curious why the change of heart, though.

I'm not convinced that HR is scum yet

Unless I missed it, you haven't commented on the case against him since, but I think it's a big step from not being convinced that HR's Scum to believing he's Town.

if you're wrong (which I believe you are)

This last quote was in regards to facebook's vote on HR {in case anyone missed it}. When did your opinion change?

@Bond- With my willingness to lynch either you or HR, please count yourself at L-1. You said that if your lynch is imminent, you'd give us your thoughts and suspicions, regardless of how "good" they are {p223}. Perhaps you could do that now.

[HowardRoark]

Just quickly checking in from work; I'll have more in a few hours.

Apparently I am at L-1 (I assume that's why a claim is being sought) and I don't want to hold you guys up . . . I am a vanilla townie.

See y'all in a few hours.

[d3x]

I won't explain my D1 play strategy until the post game discussion.

You may also want to go more into this statement when you are able to get back on.

[HowardRoark]

@iPeanut: I want to see your top 2 or 3 suspects list with at one reason; it doesn't even have to be great, just some kind of reason Why? Because it helps the town understand who you are watching. More information is good for the town . . . just as you pointed out early in your 219. As an SE, you already know this. Why are you withholding? You've basically tossed around some weak FoS type of statements but nothing of real substance.

why do you vote for iPeanut but not james or me just to save yourself?

Because my death will not cause a loss at this point. While I have some reservations about JamesBond, I believe that iPeanut is a better place for me to attempt to generate some information, and deserves my vote for the stated reasons. No matter where I vote, I am most likely to hang (be sent to the hallway) at this point.

I have to say a lot of replacements were done because of people not wanting to play as townie in newbie games.

Poor statement unless you have extensive empirical data to back it up.

@d3x: I will only reveal my D1 strategy after the game. It's been sub par due to my RL workload, but it also hasn't been too far off . . . just enough to put my on the edge of lynch right now instead of just being a question mark.

There's some more for you guys to discuss while I take some time to get a good re-read completed.

[iPeanut]

@iPeanut: I want to see your top 2 or 3 suspects list with at one reason; it doesn't even have to be great, just some kind of reason Why? Because it helps the town understand who you are watching. More information is good for the town . . . just as you pointed out early in your 219. As an SE, you already know this. Why are you withholding? You've basically tossed around some weak FoS type of statements but nothing of real substance.

I believe we've had a failure of communication here.

I asked why you picked out my discussion of the suspect list number; you read it as scummy because I had avoided the question, yet I stated that it was never directed at me in the post you referenced. Ergo, I've not been withholding because (until just now) it has not been asked of me. My stronger suspicions have already been stated, as well, but I'll go over them here and add a third, for good measure.

But, regardless, my top three suspects:

1. JamesBond's at my top spot. Rashilul really hit an alarm for me, and Bond's not built up a solid defense; moreover, the points on survival and trying to down someone else just for the sake of seeing it to day 2 are definitely not sitting well with me, as I've said.
2. facebook. Slight defense of Bond, and I did see distancing between rand0m and Rashilul for the short time they were playing together. As stated before, that could be a scumteam in my book. facebook's not coming across with any surprising amount of content thus far, and I've not forgotten the dodginess that rand0m had while playing that role. Wouldn't want facebook to hang yet, though, since we've received very little information from her thus far.
3. HR, though I'm really only very passively suspicious. Some huge point other than misrepresentation would need to pop up, but that's yet to happen. The misrepresentations seem to be so off the mark that it wouldn't be a valid strategy to try and twist words through because of how obvious it would be. Right now I'm more of the mind that HR's town, and I would much rather see a Bond lynch go through.

Speaking of the fire lit under our asses, I'll probably cast my vote sometime tomorrow. I'm not liking the HR lynch right now, especially not in comparison to Bond.

[JamesBond]

This is probably gonna get me hanged for sure. But im seriously starting to doubt for real now that HR is scum. His "not revealing strategy until end of game"-shit were getting on my nerves. But I cant really belive that he refuses to vote for me when im the only other viable target exept him, this is not scum play for me.

So im gonna take you guys advice and not just try to save my ass, thats why im now doing this:

Unvote

As said, this probably will get me hanged, which im fine with (changed my mind there), because if HR gets lynched and gets town im gonna be the next lynch for sure. That is bad for town, because it means two mislynches in a row. And if he is scum ill get lynched anyway because Dx3:s theory about we being scumteam (that would be ok I suppose, 1 scum, 1 town in 2 days isnt bad). So anyway im first target for lynch anyway, so im doing this post instead.

Now, for my probable deathspeech:

So when you hang me now and I turn up town, I belive you should NOT go after HR in D2. He could be scum of course and doing this well, but you will have better chances with someone else, him not going after me and just surrendering instead is probably a town-tell, which made me surrender instead, because its better for town this way.

My thoughts about other players as requested:

I belive facebook is town. While Somerandomguy was really scummy, then left in a pretty towny way, she (right?) have been playing solid in my opinion since then, and my leads on somerandom are just dead. The reason why I think facebook is town is the way somerand0m left, it could be a null-tell, but also a town-tell, im leaning towards town-tell.

I also belive Sigma to be town. Its hard to explain this one, I just have that gut-feeling. This of course should not be trusted a bit, its mafia after all, he could be bluffin

Zachrulez could be anything, but its hard to blame him for getting the wagon against me started, my post that he based his vote on were very bad logic indeed.

Dizzle probably falls under the same category as Zach, he found a huge contradiction in my posts, not hard to understand his vote.

Dx3: You should keep an eye on this dude. Im not saying he is scum, but his moves seem very well planned in my opinion. Either he is very good at this, or he is scum.

iPeanut: He is sitting with the final vote here, and placing it on HR will make him lynched, and placing it on me will probably get me lynched too (Dx3 said he would change if so be it). If he were scum and both me and HR are town (I belive this to be true), he could easily go against any one of us and get away with it this close to deadline. Him hesitating to doing this probably makes him town in my book.

Toledo88: Cant really get a grip on this guy, exept that he is voting for me. I feel like he could very well be scum, but might also be paranoia because of his vote.

Thats all for now.

/JB

[Dizzle]

@d3x
I see your point, but I never explicitly said that I think HR is town. I believe that Bond is most likely scum so, unless we've gotten extremely lucky, HR is likely town. I'm not sold on HR being town at all, but I think the correct vote is for Bond.

@JamesBond
I know I asked you to not vote HR without solid suspicions, but this just seems like a desperate WIFOM defense. "Why would scum not vote to keep their ass in the game? Why would scum defend their biggest competition (HR)?" Maybe I'm focused too much on you at this point, but that's how I see it.

[JamesBond]

@JamesBond
I know I asked you to not vote HR without solid suspicions, but this just seems like a desperate WIFOM defense. "Why would scum not vote to keep their ass in the game? Why would scum defend their biggest competition (HR)?" Maybe I'm focused too much on you at this point, but that's how I see it.

That will change when im dead...

[d3x]

UnVote/Vote:JamesBond

This is for multiple reasons. The first of which being that an HR lynch will fail without 2 additional votes and it seems that the Town's sentiment lies more solidly on Bond. Bond, you're officially at L-1. Do you have a claim for us?

Additionally, I agree with Dizzle. I think Bond setting up an innocent on HR could go either of a few ways that I'm not comfortable with.

you will have better chances with someone else

{read- not HR}

Itallics mine

In this scenario, Bond is Scum and trying to get the heat off of himself with statements like...

this probably will get me hanged

If they're a Scum team {which I'm still not ruling out}, Bond is trying to draw us off of him. That would put HR on the chopping block and he could cry, "I was wrong all along!". If I'm wrong about the Team and HR is innocent. Bond becomes his buddy and he can point to the "I told you so!" defense. Finally, If I'm wrong about the Team and Bond is innocent, that has

no

bearing on HR's alignment. The impassioned plea to spare him at the last second without really providing us with anything substantial is weak, IMO. The strongest suspicion Bond can muster ATM is...

Dx3: You should keep an eye on this dude. Im not saying he is scum...

Both of these guys becoming beneficent right before death doesn't mean squat to me. They've both played scummily {through multiple incarnations in Bond's case} and they're both playing the same cards now. I gotta go to work, but I should be able to keep up throughout the day.

[JamesBond]

No claim, vanilla town. I have a good guess thats the last thing ill post in this game go town, i hope you win!

[Zachrulez]

Does anyone have an idea of what the vote count is?

It's pretty easy to figure out that Bond is at lynch -1 at this point, but I'm more interested in where the other votes are at this point.

I think in light of the deadline being 12 hours away, those voting for HR should probably re-iterate why he's a better lynch than Bond if they plan to hold that vote.

Same goes for HR with his IPeanut vote.

Ipeanut should definitely check in and let us know where he stands as well.

[d3x]

If I've been following everything correctly, the unofficial vote count stands at...

JamesBond (4)- d3x, Zachrulez, Dizzle, Toledo88
HowardRoark (2)- sigma, facebook
iPeanut (1)- Howard Roark

Not Voting: JamesBond, iPeanut

[sigma]

I think in light of the deadline being 12 hours away, those voting for HR should probably re-iterate why he's a better lynch than Bond if they plan to hold that vote.

They've both done scummy things. My gut feeling is that JB is more likely to be town. Another point in his favor is that he hasn't self-hammered in a situation where his lynch is pretty much inevitable (iP has already said that JB is his top suspect). That's a town-tell.

I'd like to request that no one hammer until iP weighs in. I'd like to get iP's first serious vote on record before JB goes down.

[d3x]

@sigma- In the games I've read, self-hammering is usually done by Town, not the other way around. Either way, I think it's a Null Tell. It's about playing to win, even against insurmountable odds.

I do agree on the iP vote issue, though. I hadn't realized that he's gone this entire Day with no real votes.

/Scratches head

@iP- Maybe this is a discussion best had tomorrow, but why

haven't

you voted? I'm not talking about this end of Day push, I'm talking about the entire rest of the game {aside from RVS}. You've only placed a single HoS {no FoSes}, and haven't posted a ton this game.

[iPeanut]

@iP- Maybe this is a discussion best had tomorrow, but why haven't you voted? I'm not talking about this end of Day push, I'm talking about the entire rest of the game {aside from RVS}. You've only placed a single HoS {no FoSes}, and haven't posted a ton this game.

I like to be cautious when voting. Every time I've thought, "Oh, this deserves a vote!" I hesitate so much that I just decide not to. Plus, most of the time before actual lynching becomes a possibility, someone else has already placed a pressure-vote. I don't want to unnecessarily rack that up in the event that our scumteam would be able to push through a hammer.

The posting slowness is a combination of two things: First thing is, I honestly don't have anything to add half the time when I check in. Bad timing, I guess. The second part is that I've not been checking in that often due to IRL stuff getting in the way, but that should be gone by next week. I think.

I'm convinced that we get the most information from a Bond lynch right now, as well as the fact that he's been topping my scum list for most of this day. The last few posts are WIFOM-y, and spin a few doubts my way, but his defenses have been less than impressive. I just can't let that go. I'm probably going to vote that way in the next three hours if no one objects to it (assuming, of course, that someone else even posts in the next three hours). We need to be very, very careful here; if anyone thinks we could draw out meaningful discussion, I don't want to end this day.