Newbie game 806: Game over (the scums win)

[Zachrulez]

This is how i think: Were probably in for a mislynch anyhow, D1 is pretty much always a mislynch. If we accept Somerandomguy as town, and we go for someone else, we have 2/8 shot of getting scum, i personally dont belive i can see anyone as scum more than another at this point. Then scum do NK, then we lynch him anyway in D2, then scum NK, then were at LYLO D3.

Thats the worst thing we could do. In my opinion we have two options that are good:

1) We lynch him now, getting rid of him and take the shot that he is scum, or just accept that he probably is town, but wont contribute.
2) We dont lynch him at all, and let him sit there.

All this is of course if we dont get replacement.

Ok, let me state clearly right now that he WILL be replaced eventually. The mod will not let that player slot go through night one without it, as it would allow the night phase to be metagamed otherwise. He'll probably be replaced before the end of day 1.

I don't like this post at all. It seems to accept Somerandomguy as town, yet seems to be justifying his lynch all the same. We can reason that his reaction to us is a town tell and not lynch him on day 1, but we shouldn't dismiss entirely the idea of ever lynching him, nor should we treat his lynch as a foregone conclusion on day 2 if we don't lynch him on day 1.

The way you just talk about his lynch being a really bad thing just puts out the vibes that you know it will be, and you seem to be tapping all the possibilities of handling him, while playing on the fear of not lynching him at the same time.

I could easily see you as scum at this point, bothered at the prospect of losing somerandomguy as a mislynch candidate because of the fact that his reaction seems to be making people 2nd guess that he is scum and making people less willing to lynch him.

And with that, I need to revise my willing to lynch list.

Unvote: Vote: JamesBond

Also fine with a Howard lynch, and a d3x lynch.

Somerandomguy's reaction comes off as town. I'd prefer not to lynch him.

Vote count

(9 players alive = 5 to lynch before deadline)

(2) somerand0mguy – sigma, HowardRoark
(2) JamesBond - somerand0mguy, Zachrulez
(1) HowardRoark - d3x

Not voting:

Dizzle, iPeanut, JamesBond, Toledo88

Deadline

: 16 July

[Johoohno]

Response

I've PM'ed somerand0mguy, and will give him at least 24 hours to respond before I look for a replacement.

[d3x]

I would be ok with a Bond lynch. He's been more active than his replacees, but has been acting a bit weird over this rand0m thing. Multiple times he's made statements about being ok with an almost assuredly mislynch of rand0m. His comments on a replacement seem like an afterthought, but he should know more than anyone {as he is a replacement} the availability of replacing out/in.

Also, Rash's exit seemed more Scum laden than rand0m's. It was more like we caught his hand in the cookie jar than frustrated Newb-Town.

My p129 sums up another pressure point that I felt was left untouched by him bailing. I find that move very scummy, indeed.

For what it's worth, I just noticed that in his p171 where he was detailing our chances of nailing Scum, Bond left himself into the equation. I don't like that. He says...

If we accept Somerandomguy as town, and we go for someone else, we have 2/8 shot of getting scum

...but with rand0m being Town and him knowing his own alignment as "Town", it'd be 2/7. Hmm...

I'm currently liking an HR or Bond lynch. I'm looking at their interactions to see how likely they are as a pair, but for the moment, my vote will stay with HR. Afterall, I don't like the fact that we'd be using a leftover vote from rand0m on any push to lynch Bond right now.

Speaking of HR... where is he again? He came back in with a "lynch rand0m" initiative and then dissappeared again. That HR/Bond team is looking juicier and juicier to me ATM.

[JamesBond]

@Zachrules: I tried to explain why we should not lynch somerandomguy at D2, gave a good argument for it, and then i stated the options that are left which is a lynch now or not lynch him at all.
Of course we could lynch him later if we get scum on the way, but a LYLO lynch on Somerandomguy would be terribly stupid, and I dont want that. I actually did not say I wanted him lynched, im just thinking about the possibility and I have not voted for him. I just wanted to state our options.

@Dx3: Yes, i left myself into that equation on purpose. I try to play for the towns best, and the town as a whole is not sure that i am pro-town, even though I am. Leaving myself out of these equations are just silly, and might benefit me, but not the town.

[HowardRoark]

I don't get why HR is voting SRG. I understand the benefit of applying pressure, but you never say what SRG has done that troubles you. Lurking? I thought that wasn't an issue right now? And has d3x done anything to make you less suspicious of him?

Mostly a pressure vote to hopefully move him to be more active. However, his probable (*crosses fingers*) replacement does leave me lacking.

As for d3x, I still believe him to be a player to watch.

I won't explain my D1 play strategy until the post game discussion.

I'm not saying to rely on Power Roles, I'm saying that there's a clear distinction between targeting and killing each night.

That is a good distinction. I just wanted to make it clear that town cannot just rely on power roles to win the game; no offense nor suggestion was meant toward nor about you.

You asked me before the weekend for a concise argument for why I find you scummy {my p103}, but then you didn't respond to it at all when you came back. Why? Also, please respond to it.

I asked for the concise case for the town's benefit. I did not respond because I didn't realize that you expected it. Here you go . . .

1. A case has been built against me for misrepresenting. If that's scummy, then your misrepresenting is also scummy.
2. You are misdirecting. Bringing up Chain Lynching, etc.
3. You're not reading my posts and questioning things I have already pointed out in other earlier posts.
4. Your initial vote was limited and based off of parrotted information.
5. Apparent contradiction with how you're handling rand0m's lurking. "LAL" in your first post to "don't worry about it" in your recent posts.

1. Fair enough.
2. I simply mentioned chain lynches in a question form in order to see your reaction. I'm not sure that it counts as misdirection.
3. Perhaps. It happens.
4. My initial vote was limited by the amount of material posted in the thread. It was parrotted because I had just replaced in. If I had been playing from the beginning and not been so busy as I have been, I would have been the first to bring some of it to the table.
5. Already covered.

I wanted to see your first game to give it a quick read and see what differences I might notice. I haven't had the chance to read it yet.

(Still 153) I mixed up who our IC and SE players were. That's why I made the mistake about attacking Toledo88 over Zachrulez.

On the somerand0mguy's rant . . . a newbie is a newbie is a newbie. It's difficult for me to call it anything but a null tell. As for the treatment of replacements . . . a replacement does not get a clean state. However, it's a less powerful argument to use the predecessor's play against them.

d3x's post 177 needs some attention. It's begins by parrotting others (where have we seen that used as an accusation?). After calling somerand0mguy's "exit" a null tell and a case is brought against JamesBond, he

now

decides that Rashilul's exit was a scum tell. The part concerning JamesBond leaving himself out of the equation is something I've had trouble with in the past. It seems that either way you do it, some player will call you on it.

[JamesBond]

I won't explain my D1 play strategy until the post game discussion.

Keeping secrets as town is not good for town.

[HowardRoark]

. . . and revealing my D1 strategies during the game makes them less useful now.

[d3x]

@HR-
I don't buy it. rand0m was actually being rather active, as opposed to you. You had just been prodded while he was chatting more than he had all game {not well, but more actively}. Also, you said just now it was to get him to be more active, yes? So does that mean there's merit in Dizzle's question of you're concern over his "lurking"? Because you definitely did say it wasn't a concern ATM. Why didn't you answer Dizzle's question about it not being an issue?

Point 2 from earlier- It counts as misdirection because I wasn't saying anything even close to what you implied I was saying. You pulled the Chain Lynching thing out of the air and said "I hope you're not saying this". Of course I wasn't saying that, otherwise I would've said it. It's misdirection because I wasn't suggesting it and the casual reader would've assumed I had. You inserted the idea of Chain Lynches, not me. Further, in doing so, you changed the conversation from "there's not much Scumhunting" to "are you suggesting something scummy?" Misdirection.

Hmm... You requested the information on my case against you and my previous game for what purpose? So it could be there? You requested this a week ago. If you are serious in your accusations against me, why sit on all of this? Or will you not tell us that either until the post-game?

In regards to p177, I'd agree with you if I didn't build on the case. The fact of the matter is, I did build on it. When I was calling you and Dizzle out for parroting, you didn't add anything to the accusations. You didn't provide new content. You ultimately just said "What he said, I agree".

And I actually didn't call his exit a "Null Tell". Allow me to pull a quote...

I think it's frustrated Newb-Town.

Tell me how you read that as me thinking it's Null. Again, you are either not reading my posts {scummy} or misrepresenting me {scummier} or both {scummiest!}. Your choice.

I'm definitely leaning towards one of them being Scum... I'm thinking MSTR/Rash/Bond over rand0m ATM, but I'm very curious how Bond's going to handle this.

I had an FoS on him before he left and I never said I took my suspicion off of him after he was replaced {still haven't as a matter of fact}. I thought his exit was scummy when he exited, but I was more interested in how Bond was going to come out playing. Also, I just noticed that you took this out of context. I was comparing Rash's exit to rand0m's. When Rash left, I was suspicious of him, but also still suspicious of rand0m as well. After the 2 had bowed out "gracefully", I compared them. It has nothing to do with just

now

deciding Rash's was scummy.

At this point, I'm going to ask the town their thoughts on the HR case in it's entirity. I believe this needs more pressure.

[iPeanut]

Honestly, I think flaking out like that is a null tell, though obviously I don't have a wealth of experience to back that up with. I could see a newb-scum being really excited about being Mr. Secret Agent Guy and then flipping out when he doesn't do a good job of it.

Quoted for truth. Anyone can get frustrated with the game, regardless of their role. Seriously, who wants to get lynched? I'm with the null-tell side of this one.

This is how i think: Were probably in for a mislynch anyhow, D1 is pretty much always a mislynch. If we accept Somerandomguy as town, and we go for someone else, we have 2/8 shot of getting scum, i personally dont belive i can see anyone as scum more than another at this point. Then scum do NK, then we lynch him anyway in D2, then scum NK, then were at LYLO D3.

Well, dang, let's just throw in the towel here. ):

Mislynching's a bad thing, so if it can be avoided, that's pretty freakin' awesome. We should also stay open to the possibility, though, that the odds would only be 1/8. Personally, I could still see him flipping scum.

Thats the worst thing we could do. In my opinion we have two options that are good:

1) We lynch him now, getting rid of him and take the shot that he is scum, or just accept that he probably is town, but wont contribute.
2) We dont lynch him at all, and let him sit there.

Option one should boil down to two different paths: One under the guess that he's scum, and one under the guess that he's town. Same result, but in mafia, thought process counts.

Question time. Which would you choose between those? If, for whatever reason, rand0m's not our lynch target, who's next on your list?

After calling somerand0mguy's "exit" a null tell and a case is brought against JamesBond, he now decides that Rashilul's exit was a scum tell.

That's completely different from how I read it...

(for the sake of explaining this further, the following is not the actual quote)

Ladies and gentlemen, please put on your iP glasses for the thrilling new experience of

PEANUTVISION:

rand0m's exit was not as scummy as Rashilul's exit. Rashilul acted like he was doing something bad and got all flustered 'cause we caught him, but rand0m's exit seemed more like frustrated newb-town in comparison.

You may now remove your glasses.

[iPeanut]

Dammit. I hate doubleposting (holy crap, it took me that long to edit that!?). D:

@HR-
I don't buy it. rand0m was actually being rather active, as opposed to you. You had just been prodded while he was chatting more than he had all game {not well, but more actively}. Also, you said just now it was to get him to be more active, yes? So does that mean there's merit in Dizzle's question of you're concern over his "lurking"? Because you definitely did say it wasn't a concern ATM. Why didn't you answer Dizzle's question about it not being an issue?

I'm not reading that as a scumtell. rand0m wasn't adding any sort of content whatsoever, while HR was at least posting something (albeit intermittently). Though the contradiction does concern me, it's not raising any flags. Well, not yet, anyways.

At this point, I'm going to ask the town their thoughts on the HR case in it's entirity. I believe this needs more pressure.

I'm not entirely sure what to think about it; at first, I didn't see anything malicious in it - maybe he was just genuinely missing points here. Hell, maybe he still is. Difference in playstyle and whatnot. Some of these are becoming more and more stretched, though, so I'm not liking that.

HR's definitely getting an IGMEOY from me, but I'm still holding my suspicions against JamesBond. Pressing that rand0m vote a little too hard recently, and I wasn't fond of Rashilul's activity, as previously stated.

[Toledo25]

@HR-
I don't buy it. rand0m was actually being rather active, as opposed to you. You had just been prodded while he was chatting more than he had all game {not well, but more actively}. Also, you said just now it was to get him to be more active, yes? So does that mean there's merit in Dizzle's question of you're concern over his "lurking"? Because you definitely did say it wasn't a concern ATM. Why didn't you answer Dizzle's question about it not being an issue?

I'm not reading that as a scumtell. rand0m wasn't adding any sort of content whatsoever, while HR was at least posting something (albeit intermittently). Though the contradiction does concern me, it's not raising any flags. Well, not yet, anyways.

That was going to be the first thing I was going to mention after reading through the past few pages D: D3x said it himself pretty much:

You haven't given a good {let alone passable} reason to vote. You're not fully answering the questions that are put to you. You're not really adding actual content to the discussion.

I know you say he wasn't posting very well in your post, but posting without adding anything doesn't go far.

@rand0m-
I'm not saying you can't gain suspects, I'm very clearly asking why. If you don't share how you came to your conclusions, we have no way of proving you as a Townie {lurking doesn't provide us with information and that doesn't help the Town}.

Also, rand0m's getting angry and ditching the game seems more like a null tell than anything. Regardless of his role, some newbs get angry when they're about to get lynched, regardless of role (I nearly hammered myself the first out of frustration, but that's just me.)

At this point, I'm going to ask the town their thoughts on the HR case in it's entirity. I believe this needs more pressure.

I was about to start answering this, and then I realized it was 2:30 AM. Assuming I have time, I'll answer this tomorrow and put down my vote, which is probably going to be rand0m or Bonds, and not Howard.

[Johoohno]

Replacement

somerand0mguy is replaced by facebook (effective immediately). Thanks!

[facebook]

Hi guys. I will try to read all of the posts and post my views later today.

I'm living in a quite different timezone as you guys so I might not be able to reply so promptly but I will try! =)

[sigma]

Welcome facebook -- looking forward to your thoughts.

At this point, I'm going to ask the town their thoughts on the HR case in it's entirity. I believe this needs more pressure.

I've already said that I find HR suspicious for his previous actions. Commenting on some recent ones:

I think that somerand0mguy deserves more pressure as we deserve some answers to questions.

p9 Mostly a pressure vote to hopefully move him to be more active. However, his probable (*crosses fingers*) replacement does leave me lacking.

This is a contradiction. Being 'active' and answering questions are different things.

d3x's post 177 needs some attention. It's begins by parrotting others (where have we seen that used as an accusation?). After calling somerand0mguy's "exit" a null tell and a case is brought against JamesBond, he now decides that Rashilul's exit was a scum tell.

I'm not convinced by this attack. There is no way you can reasonably say that d3x called rand0m's exit a null tell. d3x has always said that his gut feeling is that rand0m's rant indicated newb-town. He expressed some reservations in his first post about it, but further posts have made his attitude clear. This is misrepresentation on HR's part.

Honestly, I think this is enough to change my vote, but I'd like to hear from facebook before I do that.

One other thing, d3x:

For what it's worth, I just noticed that in his p171 where he was detailing our chances of nailing Scum, Bond left himself into the equation. I don't like that. He says...

If we accept Somerandomguy as town, and we go for someone else, we have 2/8 shot of getting scum

...but with rand0m being Town and him knowing his own alignment as "Town", it'd be 2/7. Hmm...

This is not a scum-tell. Picking a probability here is basically a writing style choice (first-person perspective, or town's.) I agree with HR that this can be called 'scummy' either way you do it.

[d3x]

It could be nothing, but it could be everything.

Unless I missed something, the

first

interaction between HR and spirit/Rash/Bond is immediately after I said I'm going to look into their interactions. And then it was a short ultimately meaningless {IMO} interaction of...

Keeping secrets as town is not good for town.

. . . and revealing my D1 strategies during the game makes them less useful now.

Contrived much?

The first and only mention of one another before that was when I asked Bond to produce his breakdown of everyone and he wrote...

HowardRoark: He is the main subject for a few of you. Actually, i really cant see why, i belive most of his posts to be pretty informative, even though his logic might not always be solid.
I would like to get a review on that case from Dx3 or Zachrules if possible.

This strikes me as a it off because if he knew that HR was a main subject, he would've seen the case. I presented the entire thing in full and then even paraphrased it. Zach did likewise less than 10 posts before Bond came into the game. When it's laid out so clearly so often, why do you need it to be reviewed?

[d3x]

@sigma-

This is not a scum-tell.

Fair enough. I withdraw my suspicion on that point. You and HR are probably right, it's just a playstyle difference.

[JamesBond]

quote]HowardRoark: He is the main subject for a few of you. Actually, i really cant see why, i belive most of his posts to be pretty informative, even though his logic might not always be solid.
I would like to get a review on that case from Dx3 or Zachrules if possible.

This strikes me as a it off because if he knew that HR was a main subject, he would've seen the case. I presented the entire thing in full and then even paraphrased it. Zach did likewise less than 10 posts before Bond came into the game. When it's laid out so clearly so often, why do you need it to be reviewed?[/quote]

I wanted a review on the case, because so far i have not felt that your case against HR is strong enough to me to vote for him. If you explained in a more summarized way one more time, i might very well vote for him if i feel your case is good. Thats why i wanted the review.

[JamesBond]

Eh, got that quote wrong, sorry. You understand anyway i guess.

[JamesBond]

Fuck, im tripleposting. Thats just newbie of me

@Dx3 (again): Sorry, i actually missed your 182, which gives me more info on the HR case that i have missed. So ill read some more and shut my mouth for a while now.

[Dizzle]

p.162

I do think we should lynch him.

p.178

I actually did not say I wanted him lynched

To me, this looks like a glaring contradiction. Explanation please. And how does SRG being replaced affect your strategy? Do you think we should still consider lynching facebook because of SRG's lurking, freaking out and quitting?

[d3x]

^Good catch Dizzle.

@HR- I just noticed as I was reading through again. You said...

I won't explain my D1 play strategy until the post game discussion.

What is the context of this comment? I looked and I'm not seeing anyone asking you to explain your strategy. Where'd this come from?

[facebook]

my apologies: rl business gets in the way and reading all these taking longer than i thot.
i will finish them hopefully in 24 hrs

[JamesBond]

p.162

I do think we should lynch him.

p.178

I actually did not say I wanted him lynched

To me, this looks like a glaring contradiction. Explanation please. And how does SRG being replaced affect your strategy? Do you think we should still consider lynching facebook because of SRG's lurking, freaking out and quitting?

The thing is, I did want him lynched, as I explained in 162, but other players thoughts made me doubt that conclusion, so i changed my mind, then forgot what I had said earlier. Mistake on my part.

About the facebook/SRG-case: No, I dont want to lynch him right away. He still is high on my suspect list, but i want to give him the benefit of the doubt until he can get on playing.

[Toledo25]

Welcome to the game facebook!

At this point, I'm going to ask the town their thoughts on the HR case in it's entirity. I believe this needs more pressure.

To start by summing it up, for now, he's probably 3rd on my list. Tomorrow I might vote for him, but not today.

1. A case has been built against me for misrepresenting. If that's scummy, then your misrepresenting is also scummy.

Other people have claimed you were misrepresenting before (me and the rvs thing). Why just him?

2. You are misdirecting. Bringing up Chain Lynching, etc.

Ok

3. You're not reading my posts and questioning things I have already pointed out in other earlier posts.

He came a few pages in, so he might have had less memory on the early pages (though I have yet to sub in, so I can't say for certain).

4. Your initial vote was limited and based off of parrotted information.

He subbed in, so that's to be expected. Lack on new info after after a few real days is problematic.

5. Apparent contradiction with how you're handling rand0m's lurking. "LAL" in your first post to "don't worry about it" in your recent posts.

A nice reason/contradiction for me.

After calling somerand0mguy's "exit" a null tell

And I actually didn't call his exit a "Null Tell". Allow me to pull a quote...

I think it's frustrated Newb-Town.

Yep, seems like a point for d3x.

Shall continue later

Also, everyone keep in mind we have 5 days until deadline.

[d3x]

Good to have you in the game, facebook!

@Toledo-

For a bit more clarity on my 1st case you quoted^...

1. In p99, I owned up and appologized to accidentally misrepresenting sigma in the whole RVS thing. My point wasn't that he was going after me for misrep'ing sigma, it was that he then misrepresented me. If it is scummy to misrep someone, then it is scummy to misrep someone.
3. HR came in at the top of page 3. The first page ultimately only has RVS junk on it {aside from the initial 2 or 3 posts by sigma and Toledo that sparked the discussion}, so that only leaves one page that he missed out on. Aside from that, the actual things that I was refering to {in both the first and later accusations against HR} were all things he was in the game for.