Open 143: Jungle Republic (Game Over!) before 787

[Sotty7]

I do think Thesp's vote was a bit mocking, as it seems he was going to vote Sotty no matter what he said.

I did not intend to mock Sotty7. I did indeed intend to vote for him, almost no matter what he said.

For the record, I didn't feel mocked. But you kept saying over and over you wanted people to stop until I had caught up and posted. Why wait to place your vote if it didn't matter what I was going to say?

What do you think of Percy ignoring Ash as far as the lurking goes? Do you not think this could be a possible partnership?

Can you name one player who didn't ignore Ash, as far as his lurking was concerned?

Also, when are you going to start going after lurkers?

Just because everyone else did it, doesn't make it right. My issue is that you stated lurking was scummy to you. We know this because of the Ace wagon and because of how you started to push the Mix wagon. So why the selective attention?

I don't find lurkers scummy by default. Not when it is their “play style” anyway. I do hate lurkers and try to get them to post. Kham's post was interesting and like you stated to emp provided a bunch of opinions for everyone to look over. The more emp posts, the more I have no idea what he is trying to say. Is that scummy? Right now, I don't know.

Emp, can you give your thoughts about all the players left in the game. We need to know where you are coming from.

@All those suspicious of Sotty: Has there been anything in her play today that has made you

more

suspicious of her?

This question is leading. Testing the waters to see if you can jump back on my wagon? If not, what is the motive behind such a question. Are you becoming

more

suspicious of me?

@All those who say they like dejkha/Empking: I don't see dej/Emp. Can someone explain it to me? If it's simply that dej hates Emp, that's not very convincing at all.

For me it has to do with how little dej really mentioned Emp before today. For someone who hates him, it was strange to me. I think it makes them likely partners.

Vote Count

AA23 3 - dejkha, Empking, Khamisa
Sotty7 2 - AA23, Thesp
Percy 1 - Sotty7
dejkha 1 - Hewitt
Empking 1 - Percy

AA23 is -2

[Thesp]

I do think Thesp's vote was a bit mocking, as it seems he was going to vote Sotty no matter what he said.

I did not intend to mock Sotty7. I did indeed intend to vote for him, almost no matter what he said.

For the record, I didn't feel mocked. But you kept saying over and over you wanted people to stop until I had caught up and posted. Why wait to place your vote if it didn't matter what I was going to say?

What you said

did indeed

matter. I wanted you to feel more comfortable and at ease with what you would say, and thus perhaps more likely to give out telling information on who your partner is. I've caught scum many times before based on what their partners said (or didn't say) about them moreso than what they themselves said. If you felt you'd be lynched no matter what you said, I'm not sure how that would have affected your approach towards your scumbuddies, and the data would be less useful.

[Khamisa]

What do you think of Percy ignoring Ash as far as the lurking goes? Do you not think this could be a possible partnership?

This is another viable option, but I don't think it is as likely as the one I mentioned. Sometimes players ignore lurkers just because they don't realize they are there.

I agree with the sentiment that we should not expect replacements to claim scum. What does that have to do with giving them a chance?

AA23 made it sound like the replacements are pointless; we are likely to lynch them anyway. I'm saying that if we're going to put all the effort into finding a replacement, they should at least be able to state their case.

I did not intend to mock Sotty7. I did indeed intend to vote for him, almost no matter what he said.

I don't think "mocking" was the right word, but I'm talking about the fact that you were going to vote him the entire time.

@All those who say they like dejkha/Empking: I don't see dej/Emp. Can someone explain it to me? If it's simply that dej hates Emp, that's not very convincing at all.

It's most definitely not the fact that dejkha hates Empking, I think it's the fact that dejkha has made little comment whatsoever about Empking. This is also very brittle, because 1) dejkha spent most of day 2 arguing with AA23 and 2) I know I've spoken little about Empking, so it's not just a one person thing.

That's the thing I've been saying - - there's no secrets or mysteries to why I switched my vote - - nobody would make that figuritive "hey! I'm scum" statement - - so the only option (in your opinion) is to "give them a chance" - -

but you wouldn't you want to lynch Mixologist, the case you are most convinced on, and get a replacement for Ace, a case that wasn't so convincing?

What you said did indeed matter. I wanted you to feel more comfortable and at ease with what you would say, and thus perhaps more likely to give out telling information on who your partner is. I've caught scum many times before based on what their partners said (or didn't say) about them moreso than what they themselves said. If you felt you'd be lynched no matter what you said, I'm not sure how that would have affected your approach towards your scumbuddies, and the data would be less useful.

but wouldn't you say that scum are more likely to slip when their pressured, and not when they are able to make a good, well-thought-out post?

[dejkha]

No, Dej, that's my point.

You've given me once intance, Dej. One instance (and a weak one at that - extremely weak).

I'm telling you that meta is STRONGER and more substantial in saying your behavior to Emp in this game is contrary to your normal gameplay with him.

One game doesn't overpower the rest of your meta

, Dej, simple as that

No, that one game does override my meta, because everything's the same, just like everything was the same in all the other games. In games where Emp lies low, I don't acknowledge him so much, and that's a fact that cannot be disproven. So either, you deny this because it'll ruin your theory or because you're just stupid. If it's the latter, I'll cut you some slack, but it still won't excuse you.

I am not asking you to explain why you dislike Empking. I am asking you what you mean by the word "scummy". To say that "scummy" means "scummy" is unhelpful. Please try again - this is important to me.

I know what you want me to explain and I gave an example as to what I meant. I just can't see what's so hard to understand about it and I can't think of a way to make it any simpler.

[Thesp]

I agree with the sentiment that we should not expect replacements to claim scum. What does that have to do with giving them a chance?

AA23 made it sound like the replacements are pointless; we are likely to lynch them anyway. I'm saying that if we're going to put all the effort into finding a replacement, they should at least be able to state their case.

Do you think we should lynch the player most likely to be scum, or the person who plays the worst?

What you said did indeed matter. I wanted you to feel more comfortable and at ease with what you would say, and thus perhaps more likely to give out telling information on who your partner is. I've caught scum many times before based on what their partners said (or didn't say) about them moreso than what they themselves said. If you felt you'd be lynched no matter what you said, I'm not sure how that would have affected your approach towards your scumbuddies, and the data would be less useful.

but wouldn't you say that scum are more likely to slip when their pressured, and not when they are able to make a good, well-thought-out post?

Not always.

---

I am not asking you to explain why you dislike Empking. I am asking you what you mean by the word "scummy". To say that "scummy" means "scummy" is unhelpful. Please try again - this is important to me.

I know what you want me to explain and I gave an example as to what I meant. I just can't see what's so hard to understand about it and I can't think of a way to make it any simpler.

Perhaps if you could define "scummy" as a dictionary would. I'm not understanding why it's so difficult for you to explain what you mean by the word "scummy"

without using the word scummy

. What you've said so far is this:

I guess I could say, by default he should be the first to go, because his play is the scummiest.

Can you say this another way without using the word scummy? (This is pretty darn important to me understanding you here - I think we have some dissonance in communication.)

[dejkha]

Ok, I'll take the dictionary approach.

Scummy - To play as Mafia might.

Isn't that generally what "scummy" means?

[AA23]

So either, you deny this because it'll ruin your theory or because you're just stupid.

Stop with you negativity and name calling already.

My opinion stands strong on the meta.

Ok, I'll take the dictionary approach.

Scummy - To play as Mafia might.

Isn't that generally what "scummy" means?

Good - now the second part - can you clearly list, explain, and attach said player's to what they did that mafia would.

[dejkha]

Stop with you negativity and name calling already.

My opinion stands strong on the meta.

I'm not "name calling", if you seriously can't understand a concept as simple as that, then I can't imagine you having an IQ above what would make you legally retarded. So your "opinion", even though that's not what it is, stands strong and wrong.

Good - now the second part - can you clearly list, explain, and attach said player's to what they did that mafia would.

A bunch of things. I don't have the time nor patience to look through all of his games and find them.

[Thesp]

Ok, I'll take the dictionary approach.

Scummy - To play as Mafia might.

Isn't that generally what "scummy" means?

You'd be surprised.

More on this later tonight.

[Percy]

Just because everyone else did it, doesn't make it right. My issue is that you stated lurking was scummy to you. We know this because of the Ace wagon and because of how you started to push the Mix wagon. So why the selective attention?

I think I answered this before, though I'll answer it again.

There were only two active posters, other than myself, for most of Day 2. I do find lurking to be a scumtell, but it's worse when it's coupled with other scummy play. That's why I had Emp and Kham higher than Ash on my suspicion list.

I guess you're wondering why I could claim a null read on Ash, when I should have claimed a scum read due to his lurking. That's a fair point, and all I can say is that when everybody lurks, the utility of the lurking scumtell is greatly decreased.

I do hate lurkers and try to get them to post.

I haven't seen much evidence of this in this game.

@All those suspicious of Sotty: Has there been anything in her play today that has made you more suspicious of her?

This question is leading. Testing the waters to see if you can jump back on my wagon? If not, what is the motive behind such a question. Are you becoming more suspicious of me?

I don't see how this question is leading (for the record, I consider leading questions those that suggest an answer, and I don't think mine does). Your interpretation is exactly the opposite of how I feel - of everyone who has stated suspicion of you, only AA seems to think you have acted in a scummy way today. Everyone else is relying on Mix's Day 2 play, which was a

very

long time ago. I'd like to know if anyone else is finding you more scummy, because (as has been pointed out) a Mix lynch seemed fairly likely at the end of yesterday. Those with votes on you should have good reasons.

@All those who say they like dejkha/Empking: I don't see dej/Emp. Can someone explain it to me? If it's simply that dej hates Emp, that's not very convincing at all.

For me it has to do with how little dej really mentioned Emp before today. For someone who hates him, it was strange to me. I think it makes them likely partners.

Day 1:

I have a meta on Emp and Zwet. They both suck and should be lynched right off the bat, IMO. That doesn't keep me from discussing others behavior. But I'll "random" vote anyway.

Vote: Emp

...my position is that if we were to leave them until endgame, it would be disastrous because you'd have to pick between a dumbass who might be scum, but can't tell(Zwet/Emp), or another player that may have evidence against them. The earlier they're both lynched the better. There's no advantage to having them in the game since they help scum regardless of their alignment.

I'm not blinded by them though, so if someone else catches my attention, I'll play my part like I should and pressure them and maybe vote for them as long as Emp and/or Zwet are soon to follow.

@Dej- Wow, that's a pretty compelling argument. Let's see how they perform in this particular game though, before casting any die, so to speak.

After what must be 50+ games of playing the same crappy way, I doubt they'd change in this one.

Actually, I should probably cool it down with the Emp talk. Hewitt tends to have the urge to leave games when I get started with Emp and Zwet

That's some pretty heavy conversation about Emp right there. He certainly doesn't want Emp alive in the endgame.

Day 2:

Also, I doubt you've played with me enough to know that I don't care if Zwet and/or Emp are lynched for poor reasons. They could be lynched for nothing for all I care, I'll lynch them both on policy. I just happened to have a reason this time.

Emp is Emp, so I'll take him into consideration when I'm lost of leads.

Emp or Zwet could be lynched Day 1 once the game starts and I'd be ok with it (it's happened to).

AA wrote:
- - are you aware I'm not basing my regard for you on just our game, but your entire meta that I took the care to read up on?.....I suppose that didn't occur to you.


That statement was to back up how I don't let poor logic fly so easily and how I always weigh options.

In these two games, as town this proves him wrong and shows how he to, like Ace, is lying about reading a meta to incriminate someone.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10847 - Switched back and forth between voting Emp and Zwet during Day 1 and Emp was lynch. Zwet was on Day 2.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11133 - Emp was lynched within 24 hours of the game starting. I was part of the wagon.

I never said I will lynch Zwet and Emp no matter what. I've only said in other games that it would be wise not to let them live until lylo.

That's every mention of Emp I could find in dejkha. To claim that dej "didn't really mention Emp" is simply not true. Both Sotty and Khamisa have said it, but it's not based on fact.

That said, dejkha, why do you post your scumreads in post 172 but refuse to do so now? What has changed?

Also, we have 4 town, 2 wolves, 2 mafia left. I calculate, as it stands, the win percentages:

Wolves: 58%
Mafia: 22.5%
Town: 19.5%

If, however, we lynch town today, the percentages change to:

Wolves: 54.5%
Mafia: 37.5%
Town: 8%

It's not lynch or lose, but we're getting pretty damn close. Are you prepared to policy lynch Empking now?

[dejkha]

That said, dejkha, why do you post your scumreads in post 172 but refuse to do so now? What has changed?

The time. It was Day one when I first posted my suspicions. During Day 1, leads and suspicions are hardly concrete. It's now Day 3; the numbers have thinned and connections can be made. If those suspicions are wrong, they're a perfect guideline to tell scum who to kill or not kill and who to concentrate on during the Day. So my vote is the only suspicion you need to be aware of. That's not to say I don't have others, but town and scum alike will have to be paying attention to the thread to see them.

[dejkha]

Actually, I think town have the highest percentage don't they? It's 4-2-2 (town-scum-ww). So no, I'm not ready to lynch Empking yet. Town or WW may lynch/kill scum today or tonight anyway. There's a few ways tomorrow can end up, so I'll determine then. But I really want AA lynched...

[AA23]

So either, you deny this because it'll ruin your theory or because you're just

stupid.

I'm not "name calling",

if you seriously can't understand a concept as simple as that, then I can't imagine you having an IQ above what would make you legally

retarded

. So your "opinion", even though that's not what it is, stands strong and wrong.

You've officially displayed gameplay and behavior worse than my early cockyness. I'm not impressed.

For the last time - I take personal offense to the statements about mental health persons, I do not appreciate general name calling, your nastiness, and your insistant behavior to argue with me.

Please. Please stop being derrogatory toward the mentally handicap, and please stop being nasty.

Good - now the second part - can you clearly list, explain, and attach said player's to what they did that mafia would.

A bunch of things. I don't have the time nor patience to look through all of his games and find them.

When you have the time to scum hunt and be clear about what you mean when you call someone "scummy" - then post. I didn't know you lacked patience or care to actually play the game.

[AA23]

@ Khamisa

You made mention of saying that I didn't want Mix lynched (or something on those lines) - - I assure you, that at the days end, when it was between Mix and Ace, I preferred Mix, and was suspicious of Ace.

I've explained why one needed to go.

I've explained how I decided to go about it (the meta investigation)

And it pointed to Ace. That's all.

Re-read my posts leading up to the vote and after it - I make my feelings very clear.

[dejkha]

Please. Please stop being derrogatory toward the mentally handicap, and please stop being nasty.

Just because I use the word "retarded" doesn't mean I'm being derogatory. Don't be so politically correct.

When you have the time to scum hunt and be clear about what you mean when you call someone "scummy" - then post. I didn't know you lacked patience or care to actually play the game.

Well, now you do.

[Percy]

Actually, I think town have the highest percentage don't they? It's 4-2-2 (town-scum-ww). So no, I'm not ready to lynch Empking yet. Town or WW may lynch/kill scum today or tonight anyway. There's a few ways tomorrow can end up, so I'll determine then. But I really want AA lynched...

My percentages are not incorrect. I just went and re-checked them. There are an equal number of scum and town - we basically need to lynch wolves and have wolves kill mafia in order to win this.

My percentages are, of course, based on random lynchings and NKs, but the point still stands. If we lynch town today, town have an 8% chance of victory. Right now, town have just under 20% chance. It's not lylo, but it is

certainly

game over for town if we don't hit a wolf in the next two lynches.

Are you saying you'll wait until we possibly have only an 8% chance of victory before you'll lynch Empking, in the hopes that he's not just scum, but a

werewolf

? Policy lynching of Empking makes the most sense if it's done today, not tomorrow.

[dejkha]

Oh, now I understand. I'd rather not lynch him today, because I think town and WW's are both gunning for a mafia kill so the chances of scum being dead by tomorrow aren't low. But I will if others want to. Like I said before, I'm not wasting as vote, especially now when I find others particularly scummy.

[Percy]

Big error in my calculations. Will post correct percentages soon.

[Sotty7]

I do think Thesp's vote was a bit mocking, as it seems he was going to vote Sotty no matter what he said.

I did not intend to mock Sotty7. I did indeed intend to vote for him, almost no matter what he said.

For the record, I didn't feel mocked. But you kept saying over and over you wanted people to stop until I had caught up and posted. Why wait to place your vote if it didn't matter what I was going to say?

What you said

did indeed

matter. I wanted you to feel more comfortable and at ease with what you would say, and thus perhaps more likely to give out telling information on who your partner is. I've caught scum many times before based on what their partners said (or didn't say) about them moreso than what they themselves said. If you felt you'd be lynched no matter what you said, I'm not sure how that would have affected your approach towards your scumbuddies, and the data would be less useful.

This makes perfect sense actually.

What do you think of Percy ignoring Ash as far as the lurking goes? Do you not think this could be a possible partnership?

This is another viable option, but I don't think it is as likely as the one I mentioned. Sometimes players ignore lurkers just because they don't realize they are there.

There is that possibility.

I do hate lurkers and try to get them to post.

I haven't seen much evidence of this in this game.

Have I not been asking questions of Emp, Kham and Hewitt?

That's every mention of Emp I could find in dejkha. To claim that dej "didn't really mention Emp" is simply not true. Both Sotty and Khamisa have said it, but it's not based on fact.

You found nine quotes spanned over two days. Perhaps a better way to state it is that dej hasn't spoken about emp as much as others. It's a relative thing.

Still, I can see your point. a dej/emp wolf pairing is not something I am anywhere near 100% on it's more of a gut thing I have been feeling.

[Percy]

Recalculated percentages

At present,

Wolves: 67.5%
Mafia: 25.6%
Town: 6.9%

After a

Town lynch

today,

Wolves: 72.5%
Mafia: 25%
Town: 2.5%

After a

Wolf lynch

today,

Wolves: 36.5%
Mafia: 48.6%
Town: 14.9%

After a

Mafia lynch

today,

Wolves: 88.75%
Mafia: 3.75%
Town: 7.5%

Conclusions

-One of the next two lynches

must

be a Wolf, otherwise the Wolves win.
-Therefore, if we don't lynch a wolf today, we must be certain that the next lynch is a wolf - we'll be in Lynch a Wolf or Lose.
-Lynching Mafia today is (of course) better than lynching Town, but lynching a Wolf is

much

better.
-Policy lynches are much safer if carried out today, if at all.
-Things are looking pretty fucking grim for the town.


dej, your 'wait and see' approach is unsound, if you have the Town's best interest at heart.

Your assertion that the town are gunning for a mafia kill is also unsound.

Finally, there is a 47% chance that both the scum will live until tomorrow. This is also "not low".

With tomorrow's lynch being so crucial, and your stated dread of having Empking around for the endgame, I invite you now to place your vote on Empking, or tell me why I should believe there's a better-than-average chance Empking is Town.

Have I not been asking questions of Emp, Kham and Hewitt?

Sure, but you don't seem to care when they don't answer you.

[Sotty7]

I suck at the math side of the game.

Who do you think is a wolf then Percy?

[AA23]

Thanks for working out the numbers Percy -

I'm conflicted with where my vote is best placed.

Mix(Sotty) flipping town, would have put this notion in my head:

Percy, Thesp, (Ash) - Mafia

Dej, Emp - Wolf

What doesn't make sense to me is Dej's relationship with Sotty.

Vote Count

Sotty7 3 - AA23, Percy, Thesp
AA23 2 - dejkha, Empking
Percy 1 - Sotty7
dejkha 1 - Hewitt

Sotty7 is -2

This is the votecount from top of page 27 - -
With that theory of mine, it would look like:

The wolves gaining up on me, trying to push for a mislynch at my demise so they can have one towny down (me) then be put into their free NK.

Then we have Thesp and Percy on the Mix(Sotty) wagon with me - - looks like two scum buddies possibly hopping on board to kill who they think is either:

A towny death (though that would help both sides, and after losing their third, Ash, they would want to hit the wolves)

which makes me go "ah! Do the scum also think Dej is likely wolf, and are voting who they feel is his partner because of how reluctant he was to have anything to do with the wagon?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

So I'm conflicted.

My idea of WW lies between Dej, and either Emp/Mix.

His relationship to Emp is questionable, but still, as Percy showed, a variable (and if Percy is town/scum, he would indeed want to know the true identity of the WW and not lie/manipulate) - so his posting showing the Dej/Emp interations has me sold that maybe it's a thin road to follow.

What also aids this - - is Mix(Sotty)/Dej relationship. Dej does NOT want ANYTHING to do with the wagon of who could very well be his wolf buddy. And although Sotty had humored some pairing notions, I haven't seen a vote thrown down (If I for some warped reason missed this - a thousand apologies, just correct me!)

So in short, I feel Dej is Wolf, and am conflicted as to whether his partner is Emp/Mix(Sotty).

My vote is on Sotty. What Sotty flips will be

very

valuable to me.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@Sotty

My vote stays on you unless I see you vote Dej, I think (and in the event of that happening, my vote would follow onto Dej). Otherwise, I'll have to assume you're his Wolfbuddy.

[Sotty7]

@Sotty

My vote stays on you unless I see you vote Dej, I think (and in the event of that happening, my vote would follow onto Dej). Otherwise, I'll have to assume you're his Wolfbuddy.

This is pretty funny.

At this point I wouldn't be against a dej lynch. Percy is my top suspect, but I think he is much more likely to be paired up with Ash and hence scum. I think Percy knows this and this is why he is now suddenly pushing the fact we need to lynch a wolf. He's right though, so I won't argue. We really need to get rid of the night kills.

Still if I was a hypowolf and dej was my hypowolf buddy, don't you think I would bus the snot out of him to make you feel better about me? I have managed to talk most of my wagoners/potential wagoners into the middle ground, the last key really is you AA.

Still I will not vote dej simply on your direction. I don't like being told who to vote for or being giving conditions to vote for others. It's scummy. “Vote dej and I will unvote you!” Town/scum/wolf would all want a vote off them and suspicion onto others, still I think moving your vote on the advice of another player is a scummy action that I will not do.

You want me to vote for another player to prove we aren't partners. My voting of dej doesn't prove anything. What about bussing?

[AA23]

I'm not telling you what to do, I'm telling you what I'm going to do.

We have different opinions of endgame pairs, and that's fine.

My vote is on you because it logically suits the pairing I'm thinking of.

My vote changes if I see you vote who I think your buddy is (logically), my vote changes if you flip to a villain allignment I didn't foresee, my vote changes if you flip town.

That's all.

[Khamisa]

Do you think we should lynch the player most likely to be scum, or the person who plays the worst?

I think the player more likely to be scum. I'm not sure how that relates to the replacements though. In my opinion, we should have allowed time for both to be replaced.

I see Percy most likely as town; I don't think scum would be willing to do such difficult calculations, see the error in them, and fix them.

Unvote

I'm beginning to think Sotty7 is a better lynch today then AA23.