Mini 810: Infection! Mini - Game over!

[Mokina]

/confirm'd

[Mokina]

Vote: Rally Vincent

Oh mah gawd, you suck!

[Mokina]

I don't think we should ask people close to a lynch for a claim in this game.

To be fair, it's ultimately an individual choice whether or not to roleclaim and at one time. If someone at L-1 were to claim ... say ... scientist, I hope you will consider validity and counterclaim possibilities rather than getting angry at them because you didn't

ask

them to.

[Mokina]

...whether or not to roleclaim and at

what

time.

[Mokina]

Yes, that is true Mokina. But if all of us were to decide now that it's a bad idea to claim, then hopefully any townie about to be lynched would respect that and not draw out possible counterclaims. From what I gather, it's entirely possible that we have multiples of some of the roles or none at all. I don't want any "claim scientist" then "counter, I'm scientist" and we proceed to lynch them both.

Not saying we have to do this, but it makes sense in my head.

There's some merit to this. The odds are stacked against the town in the situation you describe. The next logical step for scum in the case of a mislynch would result in a guaranteed spread and suicide the next night - the outed fakeclaimer infects someone else, number of scum remains unchanged, and we lose the scientist.

Compare that to a normal game, where even if the power role is killed, the town would be able to take out one of the scum.

:goodposting:

[Mokina]

I somewhat agree about the claim thing, its problematic for the PRs to claim when a counter-claim makes it a 50/50 lynch and then the liar kills himself that night and we lose out. Still, a 50/50 chance is better than just going down isn't it? If scum counter-claim they're risking a player which is (presumably?) half of their team. This is my first mini and we don't know how many scum or anything else there are out there. It doesn't make much sense to counter-claim either way because their very well could be two of the same power role out there. I like the idea of making a blanket decision one way or the other though.

I think this is semi-open (i.e. we know the roles, but not how many of each of them there are), with at least two scum. We don't know how many scientists there are, but that's actually a good thing. You're right about the counterclaim not making sense ... scientists have a much better option in this scenario.

Imagine another player claims scientist while close to being lynched and the town backs off. You're a scientist. What do you do that night if you decide not to counterclaim? You inject the hell out of them, that's what. If they're genuine, it's a logical course of action for infected to target them - gets rid of a major threat, etc. If they're a lying scumbag, they are now a serious town suspect and will probably make a suicide run that night. Injection will stop both of these.

But maybe there's only one scientist. And lest we forget, there's also at least one security guard out there (same counterclaim caveat applies - thanks, shotty). It's quite possible they will mercy-vig claimed scientists, because if they don't and the scientist is genuine, he becomes infected and we don't even know it. If he's scum, good news.

The moral of this story is that claiming your scientist role will get you lynched (bad), killed at night by a security guard (worse), or infected (we won't even know it until the endgame).

[Mokina]

Mokina, we don't know if there are any scientists or bodyguards.

The bodyguard kill going through before an infection changes things though. My original assumption was that the infection still went through. Xyl's ruling makes it a seemingly impossible risk for scum to take. With this I think that claiming could be beneficial (though I still think anyone counterclaiming would be a bad idea).

I feel like taking it on faith that all claims are valid would be a bad idea. The very concept that "scum would not take X risk" has WIFOM written all over it.

Good point on the semi-open roles, though - there might not be any.

[Mokina]

Haha, thats dumb. How many games have you played here?

BM

Instead of antagonizing, maybe you could show him why that vote wasn't warranted. Shotty - to give an example, a town protective role might fakeclaim bulletproof. Nonprotective protowns don't need to know who their doctor is, and scum are less likely to waste their time trying to shoot a NK-immune target with no other powers. In a closed or semi-open setup, a doc can get away with doing this and benefit the town overall.

These instances are rare, and protowns

generally

shouldn't fakeclaim. In this particular game, the only case I can think of would be a genuine scientist claiming test subject. There are no set quotas for each role (preventing a two-protown counterclaim situation), and it might just work as a nightkill deterrent. Test subjects are very clearly at the bottom of the infection priority list.

[Mokina]

They might drop scientist tells, but I'm not sure how wise it would be to claim. Scum would see the WIFOM immediately and might not bite, whereas tells will almost definitely help mask the real scientist.

But it's an individual choice, in the end.

[Mokina]

Sorry for the double post, addressing FA's reply now.

@ fallen angel: Everything's relative here, and we would very much prefer that scum attack test subjects over anyone else, vaccinations aside. If we know who they're going to attack, by all means, send in the scientists. But until then, test subjects should try to divert the night choice.

[Mokina]

But on the other hand, isn't a infected vanilla (or maybe no infected at all) better then an infected scientist?

Absolutely, though I don't see why this is contrary to BM's point. Elaborate?

[Mokina]

The problem with fake-claims is lying to your fellow town as a pro-town role isn't usually a good idea. Tricking your fellow town is as likely as tricking the scum.

Correct. In general, it's a bad idea because it makes the rest of the town (the majority) more uninformed. However, in some special cases, a real claim would give protowns very little useful information

compared to the amount of useful information it would give scum

. In these cases, a slightly different roleclaim might redirect the attention of the baddies and avoid town power losses.

If you fake-claim scientist as bullet-proof that'll most likely waste vaccinates if there are other scientists and get a character that otherwise might've been NK proof shot by the guard. Fake-claiming bullet-proof as Scientist might work, but then again you might just get lynched if people don't think bullet-proof is justification for the votes on you (assuming you're claiming to avoid lynch).

First instnace? Feh. Could go either way, but you're probably right. Also... that's certainly a valid argument re: second scenario. False claims when you're a protown can understate the importance of keeping you alive, and if someone gets bad vibes, they may invoke a very Lynch-All-Liars mindset and call you out as newly-infected scum. Think carefully about lying to fellow protowns and weigh the benefits with the costs before you do it.

Protective PRs tend to avoid suspicion whereas a bullet-proof would have no problem being the best pro-town he could be to avoid guard kills or lynches. Guess my noobie logic will have to do for this post BM.

Right, and this was the point I made earlier. Protectives will (and should) try to keep their heads down, whereas our semi-bulletproofs can be protown, smart, and (I would argue) intentionally dropping scientells.

Oh, time to pressure people to talk - hey, are you someone other than me, shotty, or BM? Any thoughts on the current discourse? You should post and help the town! I have a random vote on right now, but I am just about ready to push for lurker lynches, soo...

[Mokina]

[EBWOP: First instance*]

Ugh, hate my spelling late at night. 1:25 here. Sleeping.

[Mokina]

Trying as hard as possible not to get lynched. This game is strange in that people want to be NKed.

Only the immune semi-bulletproofs and scientists who have injected themselves, because they can effectively kill infected by drawing an attack.

...all your awesome towning can become a hindrance if you get infected.

Right. The more analytical and protown you act, the more the scum will want to target you. Vote histories will have to be conducted a little differently, and the argument that someone has

suddenly

become much more scummy might actually matter.

Other than that, it's vanilla mafia.

[Mokina]

Shotty and Kid are my current top two suspects.

Any particular reason why? I'm more suspicious of all the people not posting anything that are flying under the radar.

QFT. I'd like to hear why. Shotty at least is willing to think aloud and plan the best course of action - at this stage, that's all the protown you can hope for.

There are definitely some active lurkers out there that seem content to have the town go blind into this, and they are making me worried.

[Mokina]

Shooty and Mokina why are you assuming two scum distribution?

Two to three scum, I suspect. I can't see a single-member infected team against the triple threat of vigilante(s), the suicide mechanic (if you're immune, scum loses a member), and classic lynching combined.

I'm not sure the infected will be too insistent on targeting claimed scientists anyway. They are basically doctors (or blockers) who can't repeat target. They are not confirmable at all, if I'm not mistaken.

If you buy the generic brand, it's "one-shot-per-person jailkeeper, self targeting." Under a hypothetical of twelve players making a lynch every day and being targeted by an infection/suicide every night, the scientist can make three to five different vaccinations during the course of the game - less if there are vig kills and additional scum, more if there are fewer scum and a tendency to nolynch.

...for lurking.

Thanks for pointing it out. To tell the truth, we're way past the random voting stage and I don't see nearly enough analysis. Scumvibes from the lurkers - and Battle Mage in particular should speak up.

Unvote

,

Vote: Battle Mage

[Mokina]

But that implies that the scientist and the guard know who the scum are. There is still a definite chance of a accidental kill, and I think it would be better to scumhunt and try to lynch a scum instead of relying on one person. That's why there is discussion and lynches instead of all vigs or other killing roles. We have okay chances, but not enough for me to think a no-lynch is a good idea at the moment.

Good call.

Especially important - as far as the vigilantes go, there's more potential for harm (even, as FA mentioned, an accidental friendly kill among the power roles). At least during the day, scientists have the opportunity to argue their way out of a building wagon. Keep in mind that under the above plan, if a scientist gets infected, the rest of the town will carry on doing nothing - we won't even know it until the endgame.

To even suggest sitting on our hands is a little suspicious in its own right, but I understand the temptation to do so in this mechanic. The day game is going to be a little trickier, but it's the best solution even at these early stages.

[Mokina]

I think a No-Lynch might be worth a punt.

Unvote, Vote: NL

BM

Not worth it. The daygame makes it or breaks it for us (fallen angel knows what's up - read his post).

[Mokina]

Discussion can still occur and we can lynch the most scummy player if one presents. In the case of NL, the guard will have some good info to use in determining his kill. In no way did I mean to stifle the discussion and say we should no lynch NOW. But to me, it's as logical an end to a day as lynching someone, especially later in the game.

If the scum feel no threat of a lynch happening, they're unlikely to go out of their way to defend themselves or convince the town to off someone else. They'll be advocating the sit-back-and-relax approach, because it offers far better odds. Whether it's through a bandwagon or a misplaced argument, scum have consistently revealed themselves almost exclusively during the voting phase. Without the day game, we have no way of identifying the infected.

FoS: veerus

for pushing this point. I honestly don't believe it's a protown strategy at all.

[Mokina]

Lurkers! Get in here and move your votes off random mode!

[Mokina]

Mod: Will a power role keep their power if infected?
Power roles lose all powers if infected.

Good question. Was unduly worried about the security guards for a moment.

thought i already did this.

Unvote

Mokina is town.

BM

I know you like short posts, but do you

still

think NL is a good idea, or are you finally convinced? If this endorsement is a silly ploy to make me unvote you, it is both transparent and amusing.

I guess I agree that NL kills off a lot of the potential discussion, but I still believe it's a decent back-up plan if there's a deadline.

Can someone tell me what the case on BM is? Besides lurking (something that could be said of many here).

Is a policy of no-lynching if we cut it close to the deadline really a decent back-up plan? I am somewhat concerned about this proposition - from my understanding, it's general agreement that this would improve the chances of the scum and that we should play the day game as much as possible. The case against Battle Mage is primarily due to his lurk tendency, but he was also a supporter of your proposed policy ... which is still looking like an antitown push, if not outright scummy.

I would suggest that guards avoid using their nightkill at all, until we at least have some day suspicions to go on. Having one or two uninformed, infection-prone security duke it out with two or three informed scum has bad odds written all over it. Even if the guards

don't

die fast, we'd be handing the infected a victory - the security guards have the special antitown power of killing otherwise NK-immune test subjects in a heartbeat. By extension, this plan's looking more and more like a scumtell.

[Mokina]

...why me in particular?

I know you like short posts...

Inactivity prod. To tell the truth, I voted for you because you were a lurker who I know can make serious posts. I could just as easily have voted for Kid Know Nothing, but feh.

Still on the fence about this vote I'm carrying, since your NL flip-flop feels a bit contrived, but thanks for posting and ending the douchery. Care to explain your suspicions?

[Mokina]

So you were unwilling to apply pressure to me because of... "feh?"

If you are going after one player, why not go after someone else who has done the same thing as well?

Good point! At the time of the vote, I had no preference between the missing people, but now I do.

Unvote, Vote: Kid Know Nothing

At least Battle Mage is doing some legit posting now.

I almost thought Kid Know Nothing had some kind of limited access, but this looks like a clear-cut case of active lurking. I mean, Kid doesn't say a word for pages and pages. As soon as a suspicion post mentions him by name, however, he manages a knee-jerk reply in less than an hour's time. If this isn't scummy, it's antitown.

[Mokina]

Lmao. Assumes the typical pro-town stance. Anti-NL, Anti-Selfvote, Anti-lying. Any half decent townie knows the logic behind fakeclaiming as town, in certain circumstances.

In fairness to Shotty, his posts show a good grasp of the mechanic of the game. Which makes it really odd when he chooses to play on the sympathies of Mokina, and use the newbie card. 0.o

I dont understand the distinction between scummy and anti-town over an issue that can really be placed under neither heading. What's your reasoning for saying this could be anti-town but not scummy?

Kid sat on his hands for a long time. The difference between scummy and antitown is purely in motivation - it has the same effect. It's my understanding that if one refuses to post as town, they aren't scumhunting. If they refuse to post as scum, they don't really have any possibility of slipping up. Either way, it's better for the town for everyone to post.

The few days we talked about Role Claiming, I had nothing to say. I'm not a game theorist. There was nothing in that discussion for me to find scummy, thus I had nothing else to do at that time other check in. I began posting again as that discussion ended, if you'll read back. Not when you said my name.

And yes, if you are going to give some poor excuse for attacking a player, I'm going to call you on it. And if it happens to be an hour after, is that honestly an indication of whether I'm infected or not?

I suppose that is an acceptable justification, if you're not really into game theory. Benefit of a doubt here, but I think it's safe to say that at this point the nolynch discussion is over.

Unvote, IGMEOY

Regarding recent events - I have to agree that PaperPenguin's plan looks like more of a newbtell than anything else; it just doesn't make sense otherwise. I doubt remotely intelligent scum would ever attempt a rolefishing ploy that desperate.

[Mokina]

You dont have to post to be scumhunting. And if nothing of value is being discussed, there isnt much point in town posting simply to avoid being called lurkers. This in itself is neither scummy not anti-town. Him posting as soon as being called out is most certainly not anti-town.

I suppose if you're one of the vigilantes/scientists and you're feeling pretty confident in your own judgment, you can sit back. But I would contend that all the scumhunting in the world means nothing unless those suspicions are directed towards a vote or a persuasive argument for others.

Personal opinion, of course, but I believe strongly that in most circumstances it's better to post too many suspicions and talk it out with the rest of the town than to voice none at all.

[Mokina]

Mokina, what made you change your mind about veerus?

He changed his mind about the advisability of a nolynch and no longer considers it advisable. Please let me know if he tries to push that on us again - I'm not sure why you like him so much, but that's been his main point so far this game. Reasoning behind your impressions of veerus and charter?

Thanks for asking lots of questions and trying to get discussion going (especially at this point), but I can't help but worry about prob town lists - it's even worse in this game, since the infected are easily able to find out who we trust, convert them, and play them off as highly protown players.

[Mokina]

@Tajo - What is it about veerus that you believe is town-like? I'm having an opposing reading of him.

Its about the motivation. First, scum are less likely to bring polemic ideas to the game. It gathers unnecessary attention. Second, if you deeply analyse veerus proposition, you can see a protown motivation in his idea. Yeah, there are fatal flaws as some have already explained but reread that post assuming veerus is town.

:goodposting:

I agree that veerus may well have all protown interest at heart here. Even as popular opinion and an observation of flaws turned most of the town against a NL, he continued to take up a controversial (polemic?) position of pointing out its merits. One could argue WIFOM, but it seems like too foolish a scum strategy to be enacted by a reasoning player like veerus. If someone else had put the idea forward and veerus had supported it with no comment whatsoever ...

that's

the kind of sketchiness I would vote for.

BM's support of the plan felt opportunistic, latching on to an ultimately antitown proposal, then discarding it when it became clear it wasn't going to fly. He still acts antitown in general, but I understand that's part and parcel, given meta. Has anyone else played with him enough to know the difference between BM-as-usual and BM-scum?

Rally Vincent

- Veerus did try to back it up for a while, and even the compromise of the deadline seems as if he's just a protown with tunnel vision about his own clever plan. Didn't seem vote-worthy.

[Mokina]

I don't want to think too hard about how much I agree or disagree with this vote for these reasons. But it bothers me that Mokina seems to want to be very clear about why she votes. She even explains that if it's not scummy, it at least hurts the town. To my mind scum might like to do this because it prevents difficult questions (and possibly votes) if you don't leave room for any.

For instance, if I just vote someone without saying anything, or I say something that isn't the whole story or could be misconstrued, there's a greater risk that someone won't buy it, may vote me, may drill me on it, may reject my answers as being contrived only now that I've been called on it. I think that especially scum want to avoid this situation because it means more attention if nothing else.

Pleas elaborate on what you mean by "acts antitown in general".

I disagree. I believe stating one's reasoning opens up far more lines of questioning. There's really no better way to bring people into a dialogue.

If I were to vote for someone silently, with no case, people would grumble. That is all - and for scum, it's

much safer

to lurk and post the occasional vote. After all, an argument based on "unclear voting" falls apart rather quickly ... and for a good reason: quiet votes, however antitown, are a null alignment tell. I hate to pull out strategy here, but if you take out all the supposed reasoning behind the votes, you end up with a pretty scum-favorable game. Nobody slips, so none of the votes are based on anything worthwhile. Eventually we get bored, cave to a scum wagon, and agree on an uninformed lynch.

See Battle Mage for an example of why this is infuriating. The best I can do is vote for people who

don't

explain their votes until they start scumhunting again. It's ridiculously difficult to uncover someone's motivations if they don't talk, and it ended up being BM's occasional surfacing versus Kid Know Nothing's almost absent silence.

[Mokina]

#85, He says here that he doesn't think NL is a good idea.... he opens the way for possible support.....

Then after several non-supportive opinions for NL (mainly Mokina, Charter, and KKN) he decides to follow the town and acts totally horrified that NL is a good idea at all.

Malthusis

NL wasn't a worthwhile plan to begin with, and I don't see how you can be attacking someone for opposing it. Fallen Angel tried to slow down the push for an immediate nolynch, and that's protown (if a null alignment tell).

Rally Vincent

It's strange how many people are trying to coax an alignment out of one side of the nolynch debate or another. I doubt intelligent scum will ever pursue any road other than popular opinion, and one of the main reasons I'm not on the veerus wagon right now is that I felt his motives behind the nolynch push were based on the conception that it might actually be a good plan. Like tajo said, he was pushing for a lost cause rather than immediately following the whims of the rest of the town, and that's not a particularly convenient option for scum.

Similarly, PaperPenguin's didn't have a chance. Whether he was trying to emulate veerus or simply being newbish, I haven't a clue.

The fact that veerus hasn't been scumhunting? That's valid. I'd like to hear more from him concerning the other players, as opposed to simply speculating on the strategy and mechanics. Still watching him there... but that said, I wouldn't push the case that veerus' own polemic plan was driven by scummy intentions, any more than PP's was.

[Mokina]

also, BM needs to post again.

DIdn't we agree that the meta of BM lurker = scum? He's been pretty lurk-ish here.

Double QFT on Battle Mage's lurking. Post or perish.

[Mokina]

Mokina, do you think anybody is scummy? Since you unvoted Kid I don't see any concrete suspicions except once of BM; do you think he's scummy or do you just want him to start posting again? I'm looking at your last post of course.

What do you think of BM, Kelly? Lurkish town or lurkish scum?

I don't want to lynch lazy townies ... and on the other side of the coin, I don't want to pass up on scum just because there aren't any quotes. BM's rare, single-sentence posts bother me, but in the end they're not an actual alignment tell. All very well to cite meta and say that "BM-scum lurks hardcore," but without any regular posts to go on, I can neither confirm my suspicions nor lay them to rest.

So yes, I'd love to see him posting again.