Mini 783: Cowboy Bebop Mafia - Game Over, Space Cowboy

[VP Baltar]

do you think zeenon lied to us about his role being able to be passed down?

I think it is a possibility and clearly stated so. I don't consider it beyond the realm of possibility that he lied, but what throws a wrench in those wheels is the improbability of him putting a double voting scum charlatan at the top of his list. It's unlikely, but not impossible.

what are the odds of a double voting scum role offsetting the crime boss?

Doesn't seem unlikely. There would likely be something to balance the game. A null vote would be an equal possibility, however.

[Rhinox]

Rhinox:

I don't like this... If you feel so strongly about don, voting him should take precedence of waiting to hear from lurker/inactive Hohum. I know you also find hohum likely scum, but I haven't heard this level of resolve out of you regarding the prospect of a hohum lynch...

(1)

First, contrast with his earlier statement here:

Seriously, why aren't we lynching d_j?

Because Hohum is still MIA, and gorrad and juls aren't contributing enough today to make me feel comfortable about either of them... although, he is in my group of 3: {hohum, d_j, Gorrad}... maybe you are onto something.

(2)

Second, I already said I want answers from Hohum, and that means even if I have to sacrifice my choice lynch to get them. I hate that my vote is getting nailed down here, but I made a commitment and I aim to honor that commitment. If he gets replaced, I'll have no choice but to unvote, and now I know right where to put it.

(3)

Also, I've been blind on Don John today, not necessarily the whole game. If you would like to illustrate where I've been critical of Don John today, be my guest.

1)The difference is, you want to lynch don. I answered why I wasn't lynching don because I still had 3 other top suspects.

2)Maybe its just me, but I don't think you should stick with your current vote out of stubbornness for answers, when there is someone else you think is clearly scum.

3)Maybe you missed my point, but it was that your blindness of Don today seems out of place since at the end of the day yesterday, he seemed to be one of your top suspectsl. seemed like a player you should have had your eye on heavily today, not been blind to.

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(1) Objecting to the vote analysis as a whole in a way that I had already answered via exclusively looking at the Largest Existing Wagon designators.
(2) Deflection to someone else... via vote analysis.
(3) An interesting choice of words. Not "I don't believe this is going anywhere". "This would not be pro-Town". That more than anything suggests that you're hiding something.
(4) Obvious reversion to your previous plan.

(1)I actually didn't notice that at first, until you pointed that out, but I still thought the main point to take away from Jahudo's message was to stop worrying about the VC's, they're unrealiable.

Mod: can you confirm whether your largest wagon indicators are reliable?

(2)It wasn't deflection, and it wasn't based on vote (count) analysis, it was based on don changing his vote with no explanation at the end of the day.
(3)I think you're looking into this too much. I thought the mod basically said "the votecounts are unreliable", so continually pressing a votecount analysis does not seem pro-town.
(4)Yes, I admit, I was very clearly trying to derail the votecount analysis that I felt was not pro-town by reverting to my previous point that I feel is much more valid than the vote count analysis.

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@Zilla 1177: I'm more than cabable of defending myself, thanks.

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Aside from Pokerface I have no clue who is town/scum. It has been such a difficult game for me to read people. Right now I think my vote is best placed on don though because he has said/done some things that I would not expect out of town don (change vote last minute and make a case on me because I have said he is being hostile)

vote: dj

If dj is scum, I would say this particular vote looks an awful lot like bussing.

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Regarding don's claim: Don, what happens if the crime boss dies after you successfully become masons?

On paper, its a confirmable role (but not allignment). However, it also seems easy to be able to avoid role confirmation by either being "blocked", or nking the known crime boss.

So, as they say, I'm not yet sure I'm buyin' it.

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my role technically has a 10% chance of succeeding on night 1

Explain.

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You've [VP] been floating along on top of my words for too long. You need to die. Today.

I don't get this at all... for the better part of today, you've been calling him VT (vanilla townie?). I pretty much thought you've been crumbing as cop who got an innocent on Baltar, but now I'm pretty sure thats not the case with your change in opinion of him.

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Ok, you're right, but doesn't that then mean that (barring "wacky" vote mechanics) that Rhinox manipulated the vote count?

Which is why I've been trying to graciously derail the vote count analysis... we just don't know what mechanics are in play.

[Vi]

Which is why I've been trying to graciously derail the vote count analysis... we just don't know what mechanics are in play.

I'll agree on the first part, you have been graciously derailing the vote count analysis. But I think you DO have some idea what mechanics are in play. And you're in no hurry to confirm or deny anything.

you've been calling him VT (vanilla townie?).

Cowboy Bebop humor, etc.

[don_johnson]

Regarding don's claim: Don, what happens if the crime boss dies after you successfully become masons?

there is nothing in my role pm regarding my ability being "singular" or one-shot. i am assuming i can try and try again. perhaps the new boss "inherits" me. i could be wrong. not sure if the mod will confirm any of that information for me, but i will ask. google "consigliere". it is quite interesting. i thought it meant "doorman".

On paper, its a confirmable role (but not allignment). However, it also seems easy to be able to avoid role confirmation by either being "blocked", or nking the known crime boss.

please name me a role that can't easily avoid confirmation by roleblock or nk. i find this point irrelevant.

But I think you DO have some idea what mechanics are in play. And you're in no hurry to confirm or deny anything.

QFT. rhinox certainly appears to be a missing link here. perhaps a role claim is in order.

anyways, i am off to work.

[Zilla]

Didn't have time for a full-catchup this lunch break, but I don't like VP's mess-up regarding Rhinox, and I don't trust DJ's claim. More when I have time, leaving my vote on DJ for now.

[Vi]

Something else I've noticed. Check out these wagons.

(209) PokerFace - Juls, VP Baltar, Vi, Zilla
(523) hohum - charlatan, Vi, Zilla, Rhinox, Xtoxm
(623) Rhinox - Vi, Juls, Zilla
(732) hohum - charlatan, Juls, Zilla
(734) PokerFace - VP Baltar, Vi, Juls
(785) ZEEnon - VP Baltar, Juls, Zilla
(793) hohum - charlatan, Zilla, Xtoxm
(1003) hohum - Rhinox, Vi, Zilla (VP Baltar correctly predicted that I was gambiting here)
(1032) charlatan - hohum, Vi, VP Baltar
(1070) hohum - Rhinox, Zilla, Juls, don_johnson
(1184) don_johnson - Vi, charlatan, Juls, Zilla

Total appearances:
Zilla - 8
Juls - 7
Vi - 7 (well, 6)
charlatan - 4
VP Baltar - 4
Rhinox - 3

Total original votes:
charlatan - 3
Rhinox - 2
Vi - 2
VP Baltar - 2
Juls - 1
Zilla - 0

Does anyone see an obvious voting bloc here? Look at whose names keep coming back - Juls and Zilla.
At least one of these two is scum, guaranteed.

[Juls]

not yet. it's no win for me. i.e. i lynch the crime boss, or go with the unclaimed "lurker/policy" lynch.

This makes no sense. You would totally win if you gained a mason partner by saving Zeenon. Lynching a lurker is not the worst thing in the world on D1 and for you to act like that is a lose/lose is silly. If you are who you say you are then it would have been a win/lose situation at worst.

what if hohum was doc?

What if hohum was a serial killer? a mafia member? a traitor? You said this on D1...

gorrad, vp, vi, juls(yeah, i said it)... take your pick. its day one.

Clearly you didn't put much faith in a successful D1 lynch.


@DJ: why did you think you were hammered back in post 1205?

If dj is scum, I would say this particular vote looks an awful lot like bussing.

Considering I find you pretty scummy I would have to say this statement makes me think if dj is scum then you are scum trying to set me up for the next lynch. And in what universe would I make the original case that my "scumbuddy" was lying about his claim? (That is a rhetorical question...I tend to

try

to play logically and I know some people do illogical things on this site and are much better at the game than me.)

@Vi: I like your voting analysis up to this point except I really don't see how post 1230 is relevant. Especially since you are pretty much statistically equal. I can

guarantee

you I am not scum.

Can we lynch don now?

[Vi]

@Vi: I like your voting analysis up to this point except I really don't see how post 1230 is relevant. Especially since you are pretty much statistically equal. I can

guarantee

you I am not scum.

Guarantee

, you say?

Also, if we were statistically equal, you wouldn't be voting after me on all but the first wagon we're both on. Likewise with you and Zilla.

Juls' opposition to d_j's claim appears to be that he gave hohum the benefit of the doubt. Which reminds me.

@mod: You don't have to give hohum a grace period; just replace him!

[Juls]

I'm sorry I don't keep up with when/where I vote the entire game and I have had a feeling you were voting after me on several of these but I would have to go back and do a vote analysis to be sure.

And my opposition to dj's claim is I think he is contradicting himself.

[Vi]

I've done the vote analysis for you. The first PokerFace wagon and the ZEEnon wagon at the end of the day are the only times you "beat me" to a wagon.

I'm still waiting for an explanation about the guarantee.

[Zilla]

I'm waiting on Vi's rationalization for claiming one of Juls or I are scum based on who was on a wagon first, and how many people we've voted.

Reading in context, my Hohum case is independant of anyone else's, same with pokerface early on. In fact, the only reason Juls wasn't leading on Hohum was because Charlatan hadn't moved his vote in a long time. Same goes for me on the next Hohum round. Furthermore your analysis doesn't count people who get to be first because the person before them unvoted. Also note that 5 of your counts are on Hohum, which skews statistics.

Explain this please.

[Zilla]

I will admit to being unoriginal in looking at Don, ZEEnon, and Rhinox, if that's what you're getting at.

[Vi]

I'm waiting on Vi's rationalization for claiming one of Juls or I are scum based on who was on a wagon first, and how many people we've voted.

The three of us are the only people driving wagons in this game, and you tend to be late on the wagon each time--
*First on PF (before ZEEnon)
*First on f-light (no followers)
*4th on PF (after Juls, VP, Vi) - leading wagon
*First on VP (no followers)
*3rd on hohum (after char, Vi) - leading wagon
*3rd on Rhinox (after Vi, Juls) - leading wagon
*2nd on hohum again (after Juls)
*3rd on ZEEnon (after VP, Juls) - leading wagon, flipped back to hohum to make it the leading wagon briefly
*3rd on hohum D2 (after Rhinox, Vi) - leading wagon
*4th on d_j D2 (after Vi, charlatan, Juls) - leading wagon

Compare to Juls--

*2nd on Rhinox (after PF) - leading wagon
*First on PF (no followers)
*2nd on ZEEnon (after VP)
*First on PF (no followers)
*2nd on Xtoxm (after hohum)
*2nd on PF (after Vi)
*First on Rhinox (no followers)
*3rd on herself (after Xtoxm, Gorrad) - leading wagon
*2nd on Rhinox (after Vi)
*First on hohum (beginning of hohum's last wagon)
*3rd on PokerFace (after VP, Vi)
*2nd on Xtoxm (after hohum)
*2nd on ZEEnon (after VP)
*First on charlatan D2 (followed by hohum and Vi)
*First on d_j D2 (no followers)
*Third on hohum D2 (after Rhinox, Zilla) - leading wagon
*Third on d_j D2 (after Vi, charlatan) - leading wagon

And me.

*2nd on Rhinox (after PF) - leading wagon
*First on VP (no followers)
*2nd on Gorrad (after Rhinox)
*3rd on PF (after Juls, VP) - leading wagon
*2nd on charlatan (after Xtoxm)
*2nd on hohum (after charlatan)
*First on PokerFace (followed by Juls)
*First on Rhinox (followed by Juls and Zilla)
*2nd on PokerFace (after VP)
*3rd on ZEEnon (after VP, Juls)
*2nd on hohum D2 (after Rhinox) - leading wagon
*3rd on charlatan D2 (after Juls, hohum) - leading wagon
*First on d_j D2 (most recent wagon)
*First on VP (most recent wagon)

I will look at context momentarily.

[Juls]

I'm still waiting for an explanation about the guarantee.

You are reading too much into this one. I am saying that I know what I am and I guarantee I am not scum. Simple as that.

Look, if you seriously think I am scum (and that applies to all of you) then you need to lynch me now because I don't want us to get to LYLO just to lose because someone is questioning my claim. Scum aren't going to NK a miller when there is so much scuminess that surrounds the role alone. I have done my level best to find scum in this game so I hope that shows.

And just clarify for me your stance from 1237...is leading wagons scummy or being late on them.

[Vi]

Zilla, what is your read on Rhinox?

You are reading too much into this one. I am saying that I know what I am and I guarantee I am not scum. Simple as that.

So do I!

And just clarify for me your stance from 1237...is leading wagons scummy or being late on them.

"leading wagon" implies that vote is either on the leading wagon or made that wagon the leading one. They're basically the same thing.

[Juls]

No I mean "leading" as being on early.

Are you saying early or later is more scummy.

[Vi]

No I mean "leading" as being on early.

Are you saying early or later is more scummy.

In this case, later.

[Zilla]

I read Rhinox as pretty scummy, I'd put him third on my list, after DJ and Hohum. Unfortunately Hohum isn't really moving anywhere and with a replacement, I'm not going to get answers, so that replacement is going to have to work hard. I don't like the way Rhinox has been playing today. I do agree with him that there are too many other factors for votecount analysis to be useful, but I don't like the way he tried to divert attention from it in a way that was kinda unengaging. I'd support a Rhinox lynch.

[charlatan]

d_j and/or myself are completely full of it.

You heard it here first! *lynch lynch lynch*

Har har har.

do you think zeenon lied to us about his role being able to be passed down?

I think it is a possibility and clearly stated so. I don't consider it beyond the realm of possibility that he lied, but what throws a wrench in those wheels is the improbability of him putting a double voting scum charlatan at the top of his list. It's unlikely, but not impossible.

This seems softer than the beginning of the day. Not "beyond the realm of possibility" is far different from stating that it's pretty obvious that there's a double-voter and, thus, we must lynch Charlatan (see: your early-day vote). Now it seems as though you're not actually paying attention to the mechanics of the vote analysis and borrowing it as reasoning for making attacks.

--

@Rhinox: Straight-up question time: Is there anything tricky to your vote? You haven't explicitly said yes or no yet, unless I've missed it.

--

This makes no sense. You would totally win if you gained a mason partner by saving Zeenon.

I'm having a lot of trouble following your reasoning here. If don switched his vote from ZEEnon to hohum at the last second, how is that not trying to save ZEEnon?

--

Thread needs more Gorrad. We're far beyond D1 now.

[Jahudo]

Korlash replaces Hohum effective immediately.

[VP Baltar]

This seems softer than the beginning of the day.

Yeah, unfortunately I wasn't thinking very thoroughly at the beginning of the day and have been proven wrong time and again. I'm not above admitting when I'm wrong. Plus I didn't think coming at you soft at the beginning of the day was going to help guage your reaction any better. Obviously there is still the possibility that you've always had the double voting power, but I think we've fully expressed what would have had to take place for that to be the case and I'm not going to be ignorant about it just because I was acting that way at the beginning of the day. (ten bucks says Zilla jumps on this as being soft)

Thread needs more Gorrad. We're far beyond D1 now.

Agreed. I find it a little disconcerting how much of a free pass he has been given in this game. This is a player who has a total of 62 posts in a 1242 post game. Hell, hohum has 51 and he replaced late and hasn't posted in a week.

Speaking of which, time to continue with my points:

The first I've addressed repeatedly. It simply slipped my mind.

The second IS my meta, and just because you don't like my active lurking doesn't mean I don't do so early in games.

The third: Yes, I was skimming the thread. How is that a scumtell?

The fourth is the same as the second.

The first point is basically a matter of opinion on your intentions. I can't really argue this any more. People can either believe you or not. I don't.

Here's the important part of the second point: You say it is your claimed meta is that you active lurk EARLY IN THE GAME. We're about 10 days from the deadline of day 2 and I'm still waiting to see some active scum hunting from you.

Point #3: You supposedly missing the mason claim is a scumtell because you were most likely gauging the reactions of town before you made your response. Scum want to make sure their opinions are in line with the town so as not to draw attention. I don't see how you could have skimmed the page of and those after the mason claim without seeing it whatsoever. Nearly every post on those pages was talking about it. Even skimming it should have been obvious.

You also try to give the excuse that you checked it late at night and were tired, but the time stamp on you post shows that you checked it during the middle of the day.

Point #4: yes, it's related to number two, but that doesn't make it any less important...just reinforces the idea. You've only actively gone after Juls in this game. One person after fifty pages is just not trying. You're now seem to be claiming that you were also questioning DJ on day1. The only thing I saw was this little skirmish way back on page 10, which died out quickly and you didn't really return to.

Also, you start the day off with weak justification for voting Juls again, saying that someone on ZEEnon's lynch has to be scum. Well that much is obvious.

You take a jab at DJ later in the day and say this:

D_J continues his scummy streak with a very nice cheap bandwagon post, and series of similar cheap posts.

I'd vote for him if he was on yesterday's lynch. As it is, I'll go for him tomorrow.

Suddenly the DJ wagon gains a little steam and you're voting him, even though he wasn't on the ZEEnon lynch. It all seems too convenient for Gorrad.

Even I've been letting you slip by today because of all the vote count discussion. Maybe I need to just be focusing on your blatant scumminess and wait for the suspects of the vote count to be narrowed down even further.

Vote Gorrad

[don_johnson]

This makes no sense. You would totally win if you gained a mason partner by saving Zeenon. Lynching a lurker is not the worst thing in the world on D1 and for you to act like that is a lose/lose is silly. If you are who you say you are then it would have been a win/lose situation at worst.

i can't explain it any better. neither lynch was optimal for me. nor for town(imo). we'll see how korlash responds, but hohum was a general null read for me. leaning scummy at times, but it was hohum, so i don't know what you expect me to say. if not today, we should certainly mass claim tomorrow. this game is no ordinary mini. i think we could have broken it with a day 1 mc.

zilla: why so adamant about hohum? it seems to me there are much scummier things afoot, and his replacement has fifty pages to read. perhaps you should focus elsewhere before condemning him. have you ever read hohum before?

rhinox: claim. now. please.

[Rhinox]

if not today, we should certainly mass claim tomorrow. this game is no ordinary mini. i think we could have broken it with a day 1 mc.

no!

rhinox: claim. now. please.

and no!

unvote, vote: don john

more to follow... its been a busy week irl.

[Gorrad]

VP, I've had finals. Now I don't. This thread has moved faster than I can keep up with while doing school. So sue me for passing ><.

[Korlash]

You know when I first started watching this game it only had 12 pages... >.>

Anyway, i'll see what I can so today.