Mini 783: Cowboy Bebop Mafia - Game Over, Space Cowboy

[Gorrad]

Also, if you

do

decide to lynch me please pay attention to the voting patterns.
Scum will definitely try to push a lynch on me.
Also! My role can be passed down to another non-scum player whenever I die, so it's okay.

Vi, do you claim this to be a lie?

[charlatan]

Okay, I've got a definitive answer back now to your question from before, Juls.

Every

living player must be ranked in order of preference in the PM to the mod. As far as posting a public list, it doesn't matter how many people you put on it.

[charlatan]

Vi, I think you might simply be reading too much into whether or not he's got "largest wagon" there.

[quote="Vi"Notice the lack of a "largest wagon" indicator here. I would assume that there is a tie here. We (presumably) know hohum had five votes on him.[/quote]

If the lack of "largest wagon" indicated a tie, then we would see one on vote count #4, which we don't:

Vote Count #4 of Day 1

PokerFace – Juls, VP Baltar, Vi, Zilla
Gorrad – Rhinox
ShadowGirl – don_johnson
Zilla - hohum

Also, do you believe ZEEnon or not? I'm not sure where you eventually came down on that -- it seemed at the end of the day yesterday that you were happy to vote him because the power could be used to scumhunt, but today don't seem to believe that at all? I'm trying to get all my positions straight.

[don_johnson]

sorry, just getting back to ms. caught up but a bit confused.

i did not recieve anything but a day 2 prod. no role, ability etc.

not sure what juls is getting at but i do not have a post restriction or voting ability.

without a counterclaim i see no reason to lynch charlatan at this point. zeenon was not the most trustworthy of associates, but i am not going to speculate on whether or not the whole "passing on" of the role was some type of ruse. if the speculation is between charlatan having a double vote yesterday, or someone having a null vote i think it may pay to investigate the latter. if rhinox' vote is unreadable then perhaps we should start there.

vote: rhinox

care to explain?

[Zilla]

I will make note that your refusal of the charlatan case is ironic considering Xtoxm dying, Don John.

By the way, it's Charlat

a

n and Xto

xm

.

Pokerface:

There's a lot different in saying one person being town makes another scum and saying someone's flip will help in determining someone else. The "he's not playing on that level of direct linking" was more like I don't want to choose the wine in front of me. I thought hohum might have been distancing from possible scum-Xtoxm.

As for my reasons for vote-switching, they were to keep it balanced to test ZEEnon's voting ability, and because I wanted hohum lynched. If it failed, we could use ZEEnon's pass-on as a scumhunting tool. So basically, whether we lynched hohum or ZEEnon, it was okay by me. I put my vote on Hohum to keep things balanced because if all had gone according to plan, it would confirm he was a doublevoter and he would still be alive. I guess it wouldn't have confirmed his townness though, but I kinda felt it would at the time.

[Rhinox]

@Vi:

The vote counts are unreliable. I intentionally leave out the number that usually shows how many people are on a wagon because, as you've discovered, the number of people on a wagon does not necessarily correlate to voting power of a wagon.

In this way, the top to bottom order of wagon prevalence can be unreliable.

This may or may not explain why hohum was not lynched day 1.

Vote count to come soon.

I appreciate the work you did looking at the vote counts, but I think Jahudo was trying to tell us something here

Same goes to you don... if anyone needs to explain anything, its you for flipping your vote at the last minute yesterday.

I think continuing to scum hunt in this manner would not be pro-town.

As I said earlier, unless ALL scum were voting zeenon (unlikely), then there is at least 1 scum in this group of 3 (4) {hohum, d_j, gorrad, (Rhinox)}. I can't really see myself voting to lynch outside this group today. The only player that's not hohum, d_j, or gorrad I would vote to lynch today would be juls.

-----------------------------------------------

I agree with Juls. ZEEnon flip would have definitely been a free lynch for them of Xtoxm were still alive, mostly due to the fake claim. My other top suspect is of course charlatan.

Vote: Charlatan

Why do you agree with juls? What are you talking about with the "free lynch if xtoxm was still alive? Why is Char your

other

top suspect (and who then is your other)? Do you not believe that ZEE's power was passed on at all?

After being gone for so long, this post doesn't make me want to lynch you any less.

[Vi]

If the lack of "largest wagon" indicated a tie, then we would see one on vote count #4, which we don't:

That's because Jahudo didn't include "largest wagon" indicators until #15, before which the following quotes were made.

@Jahudo, can I get a vote count and could you highlight or bold who is going to be lynched at deadline?

Mod: As it stands, who will be lynched at dealdine?

Also, do you believe ZEEnon or not? I'm not sure where you eventually came down on that -- it seemed at the end of the day yesterday that you were happy to vote him because the power could be used to scumhunt, but today don't seem to believe that at all? I'm trying to get all my positions straight.

Until I find a better explanation, I do not.
This is based on the discrepancies in the vote count, especially toward the end of the day. I didn't notice them until then.

One other thing about that. Vote Counts 15 and 16 show that Juls could not be a doublevoter. I cannot demonstrate that I am not a doublevoter with vote analysis.

-----

but I think Jahudo was trying to tell us something here

And I paid attention. I went with the obvious "Largest Wagon" designator, not the listed order.

I think continuing to scum hunt in this manner would not be pro-town.

I wonder about that. But I already know where else to keep looking... (>")>

@mod: Hurry up with the vote count *kick*

[VP Baltar]

VP, seems to be calling for a policy lynch right here^. Lynch scum, not town because they lied. Your vote shouldn't have been locked for that.

Pretty sure when I say that his play was out and out scummy that means I didn't really consider it a policy lynch. I said people claiming he lies as town was unrelated to his scummy play. How do you get policy lynch out of that?

And what's this, so you are agreeing with Xtoxm that ZEEnon couldn't be masterful scum?

Actually, Xtoxm seemed to be saying that he thought ZEEnon's play was very pro-town and if he was scum, then he had done a masterful job of playing in the game. I sarcastically disagreed with that statement. I'll use tags next time so it's more clear.

Juls' theory on the dj voting pattern strikes me as...improbable. Could you explain a bit more what you are seeing as the difference between the votes you highlight and those you didn't? Are you trying to say that if he puts a comma in his votes they don't count for real?

Hohum being unlynchable also seems highly unlikely if you are trying to say it is a scum power since it would appear we don't have a pro-town killing faction.

I didn't want to slap an easy vote on just because of "lynch all liars". You claimed and I believed that, which also made me believe Xtomx. Having decided that Xtomx was legit, I was more inclined to vote ZEEnon.

These points don't seem to agree for me. Were you voting ZEEnon primarily for his scumminess or because he lied?

Or, if it really is another hidden double-voter, perhaps it's you. If it's going to come to light eventually anyways, why not get a jump on it first?

WIFOM scare tactics don't exactly bode well for me thinking you are town. Though I agree that there could be more options than what Vi presented, this certainly does nothing to disprove the potential scenario he put forth, and seems like a flippant response to say 'oh, well it's not worth looking at what you said because you could be scum'.

Vi's 1024 is pretty damn solid. We need to lynch Charlatan or Rhinox today, end of story it seems.

@Rhinox, the vote counts that Vi points out do in fact indicate the "Largest Wagon". I don't think the mod would out and out lie. I think when there is question about who the largest wagon is, the mod would simply leave off an indicator...as he did in some other vote counts.

Vote count #4 that charlatan points out is suspect, but it may just be that the mod forgot or thought it was obvious enough in that one case that a largest wagon indicator did not need to be placed.

I think Zilla made a good point about ZEEnon possibly lying about the his role passing on to help clear Xtoxm further and get his top picks lynched. It was indeed risky, but we have clearly seen that he didn't have an aversion to playing fast and loose since he claimed mason with someone he couldn't have had a clue about their alignment.

Right now I'm inclined to

Vote Charlatan

, but I'd be up for a Rhinox lynch today as well.

[Vi]

I don't think I'm done yet, actually.

Unvote: charlatan

[charlatan]

These points don't seem to agree for me. Were you voting ZEEnon primarily for his scumminess or because he lied?

Scuminess. Like I've said all game, I thought ZEEnon's play was suspect, but I was initially more interested in a hohum lynch. When it came to light that ZEEnon had lied and that Xtoxm was likely telling the truth, it bumped him into my #1 lynch spot.

WIFOM scare tactics don't exactly bode well for me thinking you are town. Though I agree that there could be more options than what Vi presented, this certainly does nothing to disprove the potential scenario he put forth, and seems like a flippant response to say 'oh, well it's not worth looking at what you said because you could be scum'.

It's not about that, it's about pointing out that the argument put forth is presented as simple and easily digestible when it's not. I don't think I've been flippant, especially as I've discussed the idea with Vi more than anyone else has -- that's not ignoring it. The point is that Vi argued a reasonable case that narrows the playing field to a few players, then makes a leap that it's me and what I'm seeing now is an awful lot of people falling in line. I have never said it's not worth looking at. I have explicitly said it's something to be considered by all players. You illustrate this idea well here:

Vi's 1024 is pretty damn solid. We need to lynch Charlatan or Rhinox today, end of story it seems.

Vi's votes can't be cleared in Vi's analysis either. Since Vi presented the argument, Vi can't be considered a suspect, or what?

I think this is a bad time to follow the leader and I need people to think hard about what's happening. As I see it, for this to be a viable conclusion, the following assumptions need to be true:

• * ZEEnon told the truth about his role but lied about it being passed on in a bizarre gambit almost guaranteed to end poorly, OR the role was passed on to a player besides myself who has chosen not to claim it (which would out me as scum).
  
  * If ZEEnon wasn't lying, I as scum got absurdly lucky in being placed at the front of his list, as I would be the only player in the game able to inherit a role power I already had. If we killed Xtoxm to cover ourselves, as Vi suggests, then this would imply that dj is also scum.
  
  * By virtue of the previous, ZEEnon nailed two scum on day 1 without even reading the game.
  
  * I played yesterday very cautiously to keep my double vote a secret, then threw that away at the last minute.
  
  * I somehow knew that ZEEnon was lying about his role, or would else be risking a counterclaim that would out me as scum.

Those are the just ones off the top of my head, though I suspect there are more required to make this conclusion solid.

As far as I'm concerned, I find one assumption easier to believe than all of these: that there's an element at work that we haven't discovered yet.

Soon I'm going to sleep; if this gets out of control and you do decide to lynch me, please don't hammer until I've had a chance to post the full list I'll send Jahudo (which can't be right this second.)

[Vi]

* I played yesterday very cautiously to keep my double vote a secret, then threw that away at the last minute.

* I somehow knew that ZEEnon was lying about his role, or would else be risking a counterclaim that would out me as scum.

Not so.

However, I'm going to consider some other ideas later today and do not want charlatan to be lynched until I get done. Hence the unvote.

[charlatan]

* I played yesterday very cautiously to keep my double vote a secret, then threw that away at the last minute.

* I somehow knew that ZEEnon was lying about his role, or would else be risking a counterclaim that would out me as scum.

Not so.

Care to explain? If what you say is true, I could've kept my vote parked on hohum, watched him get lynched, and we'd have a whole different set of circumstances on our hands.

As for the second point, were I scum and ZEEnon was telling the truth, then whoever actually did get the role could counterclaim and cause me all sorts of headaches. Doesn't seem a viable scum play unless scum somehow knows ZEEnon to be lying.

However, I'm going to consider some other ideas later today and do not want charlatan to be lynched until I get done. Hence the unvote.

Glad to see you asserting your authority.

[Jahudo]

Hey, who kicked me? Ow

Vote Count #1 of Day 2

charlatan ––– hohum, VP Baltar
hohum ––– Rhinox, Zilla
Rhinox ––– don_johnson
don_johnson ––– Juls
Juls ––– Gorrad


Not Voting ––– Vi, charlatan, PokerFace

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

[charlatan]

Okay, time to sleep.

Posting this to remind the town to be careful at this junction and don't rush. If Vi is correct that there were two double voters but incorrect about me being one of them yesterday, then I can be quick-lynched from L-2 without it looking like one if there are other players on the wagon who are possible candidates for double-voter. That would leave us down four town with zero scum to show for it and in much the same situation tomorrow as we are today. We've got plenty of time.

We have at our disposal a role mechanic better than a cop investigation. Scum has every reason in the world to try and sabotage it.

Just in case:

hohum
don_johnson
Gorrad
Juls
VP Baltar
Zilla

[VP Baltar]

Vi can't be considered a suspect, or what?

No one said that. However, he did not claim to have the double voting ability today. Annnnd, while the vote counts yesterday do not clear him, they also do not seem to directly implicate him as they do for you and Rhinox. That is why it is more likely that one of you has some sort of vote altering ability.

* ZEEnon told the truth about his role but lied about it being passed on in a bizarre gambit almost guaranteed to end poorly, OR the role was passed on to a player besides myself who has chosen not to claim it (which would out me as scum).

I really doubt it was passed onto a player that has chosen not to claim it, so that isn't really valid. I've already stated why I think it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility for ZEEnon to lie about his role being passed on, given his and Xtoxm's fanatical belief in each other being town before any proof was available.

* If ZEEnon wasn't lying, I as scum got absurdly lucky in being placed at the front of his list, as I would be the only player in the game able to inherit a role power I already had. If we killed Xtoxm to cover ourselves, as Vi suggests, then this would imply that dj is also scum.

This is a valid point. The odds are against it happening, but it's not impossible either. It may in fact implicate dj as scum as well.

* By virtue of the previous, ZEEnon nailed two scum on day 1 without even reading the game.

* I played yesterday very cautiously to keep my double vote a secret, then threw that away at the last minute.

* I somehow knew that ZEEnon was lying about his role, or would else be risking a counterclaim that would out me as scum.

The first two seem be things that you think are big assumptions, they don't necessarily seem improbable to me. The last one is essentially tied to your first, and it still doesn't sway me. Plus, for all you knew yesterday looking at ZEEnon's list of three people, if dj is your scumbuddy, no else

would

have received the double vote.

Soooooo...there is definitely the assumption working here that you got lucky ZEEnon called you as his first receiver and you already had some vote manipulating ability. Like I said before, you or Rhinox are the most likely choices for hitting scum.

[VP Baltar]

Don't worry about a quick lynch charlatan. I don't want it either and would unvote if the town started moving rapidly toward that. We of course need to think this out thoroughly before making a final decision.

[hohum]

we should be lynching Charlatan

[Juls]

school started back today and I spent my free time catching up on a game where I was "away" for an entire day so I will post tomorrow. But I will give hohum ~20 hours to do some significant scum hunting or I will be voting him in my next post.

[hohum]

school started back today and I spent my free time catching up on a game where I was "away" for an entire day so I will post tomorrow. But I will give hohum ~20 hours to do some significant scum hunting or I will be voting him in my next post.

I think the ignorance trap is working quite well. Then again I'm also ignorant to the results.

[hohum]

in 20 hours I'll remember to be frightened.

[VP Baltar]

Juls, what do you think about the voting record seeming to implicate Charlatan or Rhinox? Do you think lynching hohum for inactivity is more pressing than that matter?

[charlatan]

Juls, what do you think about the voting record seeming to implicate Charlatan or Rhinox? Do you think lynching hohum for inactivity is more pressing than that matter?

Do remember, the only way it potentially implicates either of us is you're 100% sold on the fact that there are two double voters (always were) and nothing else that effects voting.

The current wagon is not about scuminess, it's about setup theory, and it's about thinking things are "highly unlikely" in a game where the mod said to remember the following:

Some roles are uncommon, unusual, brand-new, tweaked, and/or affect voting.

I don't expect Vi to question theories that Vi comes up with (why doubt one's brilliance?) but the rest of you ought to think it through yourselves and don't take statements like VP's as given.

[charlatan]

EBWOP

"Is if you're 100% sold".

Also, not that it matters, but I meant "affects". I hate when I do that.

[VP Baltar]

Also, not that it matters, but I meant "affects". I hate when I do that.

You sound like me.

the only way it potentially implicates either of us is you're 100% sold on the fact that there are two double voters (always were) and nothing else that effects voting.

I'm not 100% on anything. If I believe it is you that was altering the votes on day 1, then yes, the most logical thing to believe is that there are two double voters. Could be something else though...I dunno. Maybe the scum had a more direct way of blocking ZEEnon's double vote. You would admit, however, that there was something going on there, right?

Now, looking back more closely at the vote counts, I have to amend something that I said before. Vi does look just as guilty as Charlatan or Rhinox on the vote counts from #15 onward. I thought there was one in there that he wasn't on that showed the wagons as being equal when they shouldn't have been, but that's not true.

This complicates things. We now have three potential suspects who could have been manipulating the vote to offset ZEEnon's double vote. It gets way to WIFOMy when you start think about why Vi would have brought up the vote counts if he was the one changing them.

Unvote

I need some time to think about this.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Amendment to my last post:

Juls, can you answer the question I asked you about don johnson's voting and what pattern you are seeing there?

[PokerFace]

Just letting you know I'm going to be a little bit busy this week. Got to pack for vacation and other personal affairs. See Sig. One comment I will make is that the thought ZEEnon would lie about his skill being passed on is Epic Fail.

I don't 100% believe ZEEnon's claim that his role is passed on. I think it may have been a town-lie, considering Xtoxm's reason for picking him as his fake-mason was that he went along with those things. ZEEnon could have been returning the favor. He'd put his top suspects on the list including Xtoxm, so if Xtoxm also believed those two to be scum, he'd claim to get the power just to get those top two lynched. It's a risky play, but seeing what they had already done, I don't think it's beyond them to try something like that.

No way the Xtoxm and ZEE could have planned something like that or had the nerve to orchestrait it. I don't think any MS player would lie/act to that extent.

Just skimming through a few things, unless someone wants to counter claim charlaton I don't really see a reason to think he didn't just get the skill. I'll address answers to my previous questions and what not as soon as I get the time.