Mini 783: Cowboy Bebop Mafia - Game Over, Space Cowboy

[Gorrad]

People to look at: VP Baltar, Juls, Vi, charlatan, Zilla

At least one of these is scum.

Vote: Juls

[Vi]

People to look at: VP Baltar, Juls, Vi,

charlatan,

Zilla

...?

charlatan, vote for someone. Then request a vote count, making sure the leading wagon is highlighted.

[Gorrad]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

ZEEnon ––– VP Baltar, Juls, Vi, charlatan, Zilla

[Rhinox]

Gorrad, I think Vi is trying to confirms char's new double voting ability, if it exists. Yesterday's vote count won't work.

By the way, how exactly did you come up with your list of 5 names today?

[Vi]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

ZEEnon ––– VP Baltar, Juls, Vi, charlatan, Zilla

oic
I've already explained why I was on the wagon and pushed it, and since (if it worked as advertised) it has confirmed someone that I've had questions about for a while, I refuse to say the ZEEnon lynch was anything but a good move. tbh I think an examination of the motives for the votes at the end of the day would be nice about now.

@Rhinox: Compare the vote count above with Gorrad's list o' suspicions.

[Rhinox]

"@Rhinox: Compare the vote count above with Gorrad's list o' suspicions. "

aha... I get it now.

[Gorrad]

Gorrad, I think Vi is trying to confirms char's new double voting ability, if it exists. Yesterday's vote count won't work.

By the way, how exactly did you come up with your list of 5 names today?

You swapped around what 977 was directed at. It's how I got the list of five, not meant to show doublevoting.

I have already shown my favoring of a Juls wagon, and I think clearing Xtoxm only helps the case.

[Zilla]

Well, on my part, it was part confirmation of Xtoxm's double-voting ability and part wanting to execute his planned scumhunting method.

Gorrad, I think statistics are pretty good that there's scum on ZEEnon's case anyway. Where I don't agree is that there were plenty of good reasons to be on ZEEnon's case without needing scum on it. I'd say it's a good bet that there's scum on that wagon though, just by comparing spreads. If Hohum is scum, I'd turn that "at least one" into "at least two."

[Jahudo]

The vote counts are unreliable. I intentionally leave out the number that usually shows how many people are on a wagon because, as you've discovered, the number of people on a wagon does not necessarily correlate to voting power of a wagon. In this way, the top to bottom order of wagon prevalence can be unreliable.

This may or may not explain why hohum was not lynched day 1.

Vote count to come soon.

[Zilla]

Vote: Juls

I likely know why you're doing this, but I'd like a reason on record.

[Gorrad]

I spent most of yesterday talking about it! If you need one single reason, it's trying to draw the vig kill and not the scumkill.

[Vi]

The vote counts are unreliable. I intentionally leave out the number that usually shows how many people are on a wagon because, as you've discovered, the number of people on a wagon does not necessarily correlate to voting power of a wagon. In this way, the top to bottom order of wagon prevalence can be unreliable.

This may or may not explain why hohum was not lynched day 1.

Vote count to come soon.

Maybe this game

is

weirder than advertised.

Either way, that gives an

excellent

lead for today. I'll allow 24 hours for people to drop bombshells before I proceed with my own theory.

[charlatan]

tbh I think an examination of the motives for the votes at the end of the day would be nice about now.

As far as I go, the thing that sucked was that I wasn't awake when everything really hit the fan. The deadline was in the middle of the night in my time zone. It would be have been good to get all the info that we did a lot sooner than a few hours before the deadline. When I voted, ZEEnon hadn't claimed, he had just admitted to going along with the Xtomx's story, and pretending to be a mason coupled with scummy play was enough for me to cast a vote.

I'm needing to reread, and I want to see what the others who haven't chimed in yet have to say.

[VP Baltar]

@charlatan, do you think ZEEnon's claim made him more or less scummy?

I would still like a little post-day commentary from the people who supposedly were not around when everything went down yesterday, ie hohum, Gorrad, pokerface, charlatan, etc.

Also, I think I have an idea where you are going Vi, but I'll let you comment first since you might have a more complete idea than me.

[Vi]

Also, I think I have an idea where you are going Vi, but I'll let you comment first since you might have a more complete idea than me.

I don't. That's the purpose of asking other people to speak up.

I do agree that hohum needs to show up --now-- as he was not unconditionally spared from the lynch yesterday.
To get this to go faster,

@mod: Has hohum picked up his prod? If so, can you spam one or two more to him? Or maybe just flood his inbox?

Out of curiosity, are you (VP Baltar) an alt?

[VP Baltar]

Nope, this is all me. Who do you think I'm an alt for?

I have a theory about what happened with the vote. Also, Jahudo's little comment is making me question a bit about whether or not the double voter power was actually passed on or if charlatan is just bold scum trying to get a townie pass.

[charlatan]

@charlatan, do you think ZEEnon's claim made him more or less scummy?

Less, but I think I would've still considered him a decent lynch. The nature of his claim was such that he told us how he'd be useful in death and then participated in making that a reality. He was clear that we wouldn't lose the role, and while I might've seen that as a clever way to gain some last-second townie cred, it probably would've been enough to make me want hohum lynched over him (since I liked him for a lynch anyways). I would've supported testing his double-voting in the manner everyone attempted to, I thought that was smart when I caught up.

I have a theory about what happened with the vote. Also, Jahudo's little comment is making me question a bit about whether or not the double voter power was actually passed on or if charlatan is just bold scum trying to get a townie pass.

I'd love to hear the theory.

[VP Baltar]

My theory (which should seem somewhat obvious) is that the scum had some sort of power that blocked ZEEnon's double vote. All things being equal, hohum should have been the lynch yesterday. Therefore, something had to have interferred since we now know that it is true he had a double vote. What that could be is beyond me, which is why I said Vi might have a better idea than me.

[Jahudo]

Hohum had picked up his prod and the notice that Day 2 has started. I will send another prod if he does not post after 72 hours of Day 2 starting.

[Vi]

All things being equal

I reject this assumption.

[Rhinox]

My theory (which should seem somewhat obvious) is that the scum had some sort of power that blocked ZEEnon's double vote. All things being equal, hohum should have been the lynch yesterday. Therefore, something had to have interferred since we now know that it is true he had a double vote. What that could be is beyond me, which is why I said Vi might have a better idea than me.

I'm not sure this speculating will get us anywhere...

~maybe there are other double voters
~maybe there are voteless players

^^either of these could be town or scum

~Maybe there are other new mechanics involved that we can't predict.
~Maybe the choice was affected due to the lynch being deadlined
~Maybe Hohum is unlynchable
~Maybe etc.

...see what I mean?

[VP Baltar]

Ok ok...Baltar theory shaky at best.

[Rhinox]

Ok ok...Baltar theory shaky at best.

well... if you think ZEE's double vote was blocked by scum, do you have any suspects for who could have affected the vote?

IF scum were messing around with the vote, the players that stick out to me as potential vote manipulators are D_J and Zilla, as both were making last minute vote changes right at the deadline.

Aside from that, the reasons for suspecting the players I suspected yesterday are still valid. It is somewhat discomforting to learn that hohum is still active on the site and ignoring this game, and I'm still for a Juls lynch. So far today, Gorrad is better.

I think hohum is the place to start today.

vote: Hohum

@Gorrad, an alternative theory: At least 1 of {

pokerface

, hohum, d_j, Gorrad,

Rhinox

,

ZEEnon

,

Xtoxm

}

Reasoning? I'll give you that at least 1 scum was probably on the townie mislynch, but I would be shocked if ALL scum were on the mislynch, especially given that there was no lynch majority with the deadline confusion and all. Therefore, there must be at least 1 scum in the group of players NOT voting for ZEEnon yesterday. The difference is, in my group, PF is already assumed town, as am I in my own analysis, and 2 others are dead.

So I can conclude that at least 1 of {hohum, d_j, gorrad} is probably scum, and I'm much more comfortable choosing from a group of 3 than a group of 5.

[VP Baltar]

if you think ZEE's double vote was blocked by scum, do you have any suspects for who could have affected the vote?

Well, you did make a valid point that it could be any number of things manipulating the vote, so I'm not sure that given so many variables it is safe to pursue my theory as a valid scum hunting method.

Hohum and Gorrad's absences at the end of the day are of course disconcerting. They could have been sitting back manipulating while the town scrambled. I have already shown that Gorrad has somewhat willfully stayed out of the fray when things get hairy. However, there is no real evidence for either one of them certainly being some sort of vote manipulator (at least that I have). They could have also had real life issues that simply interferred with participating. It's more about feel than evidence in either case.

Your theory is decent enough, Rhinox, but for most of us it only narrows the list down to 4 instead of 5. I'll take any improved odds that I can, however, so I do agree that hohum, dj, gorrad and Rhinox would be a better place to investigate statistically speaking than the five on the ZEEnon lynch (which I think definitely had legit reasons, of course).

[Vi]

I like Rhinox's alternative theory, actually...

Vote: hohum

(L-4)
*

^^either of these could be town or scum

By not claiming now, I think that these players would more likely be scum.