Newbie 769 - Game Over

[kikuchiyo]

Toledo/Hockey is plausible due to their behaviors and conspicuous placement on the day 1 bandwagon. Hockey seems more obvious scum right now, but that may be because Toledo has gone quiet

What's conspicuous about Toledo/Hockey day 1 placements in the bandwagon? I'd say that the common "3rd on bandwagon" tell applies to Toledo, but what's the thing with Hockey's vote? In my opinion his vote or placement of the vote was justified when he eventually gave the reasons for it.

I believe you are "strawmanning" here. You are clearly focusing on one point in my argument when it is obvious that the information is part of a larger theory. Both Hockey's and Toledo's placement on the bandwagon is not suspicious in and of itself, but when combined with behaviors on day 2 it becomes conspicuous. Here you seek to separate the evidence in what seems like an attempt to make it appear weak.

I am still suspicious of Feeres, I don't like the "I'll leave it up to town" post. It is a good way to absolve yourself of responsibility if today's lynch flips town. If we are deciding between Toledo and Hockey, I would like a more concrete answer from Feeres as to who should go first.

Suspicious because of that? Uh, ok. As you can see now, I am thinking that Toledo should go first. I see that the case towards both Hockey and Toledo is similarly strong, yet Hockey has been more suspicious lately while Toledo has been quiet. I have been strongly suspicious of Toledo for some time now, that's why I voted for him instead of Hockey.

Town consensus means that if people feel Hockey should go first, I don't see a problem with it. If Toledo goes first, I don't see problem with it either. Both are at the bottom of my scum list, so I don't have much intention to save one or the other. But before I make a choice that I want to lynch Hockey first, I want to hear more from other people.

This is acceptable. The wording of the last sentence is odd, though. If you find Toledo to be more likely scum, why would you not push for their lynch first? It seems as though you are happy to fence sit. Personally, I understand that to a degree, i.e. I am also not dead set on a lynch just yet, however, you seem to be sending a mixed message of finding one scummier than the other, but placing them at the same spot on your lynch list. If we mislynch, tomorrow is lylo, no? I would think we would want to get this right.

[Feeres]

I believe you are "strawmanning" here. You are clearly focusing on one point in my argument when it is obvious that the information is part of a larger theory. Both Hockey's and Toledo's placement on the bandwagon is not suspicious in and of itself, but when combined with behaviors on day 2 it becomes conspicuous. Here you seek to separate the evidence in what seems like an attempt to make it appear weak.

I apologize if I refuted a proposition if you didn't originally make. I interpreted your sentence in the way that you had two distinct reasons to find them suspicious, their placement in the bandwagon and their behaviour. This is probably the wrong interpretation, because if you indeed meant that the combination of their behavior with their voting, it does make sense.

A bit related thing, I don't recall if anyone noticed, but Toledo voted for Tenchi, which IMO supports the idea that Tenchi and Hero would be town and Toledo would be scum because how voting for someone in a debate where both are town could be used to gain some mass in to other one's arguments and thereby drive the town in to lynching one of the two. Or that is how I'd find it.

This is acceptable. The wording of the last sentence is odd, though. If you find Toledo to be more likely scum, why would you not push for their lynch first? It seems as though you are happy to fence sit. Personally, I understand that to a degree, i.e. I am also not dead set on a lynch just yet, however, you seem to be sending a mixed message of finding one scummier than the other, but placing them at the same spot on your lynch list. If we mislynch, tomorrow is lylo, no? I would think we would want to get this right.

Personally, I strongly believe both Toledo and Hockey are the scum at this point. If we were to mislynch today when choosing either one of them, we would have the situation where people we are left with some clear connections as to who can and can't be scum together. I feel we would still have a strong chance of winning, especially with town powers being alive.

Regardless, I don't see why I would need to push for Toledo's lynch any further at this point when I haven't heard from him at all yet after my vote. I'm giving him time to defend himself before we make a lynch.

[Toledo25]

Toledo/Hockey is plausible due to their behaviors and conspicuous placement on the day 1 bandwagon. Hockey seems more obvious scum right now, but that may be because Toledo has gone quiet

What's conspicuous about Toledo/Hockey day 1 placements in the bandwagon? I'd say that the common "3rd on bandwagon" tell applies to Toledo, but what's the thing with Hockey's vote? In my opinion his vote or placement of the vote was justified when he eventually gave the reasons for it.

Feeres: I'm not sure if you are questioning me on my position on the bandwagon, but I'll just say this for the record: I believed that CJMiller was scum. The fact that I was #3 on the bandwagon really doesn't mean much to me (unless it's a scum tell, please tell me if so).

All: Since mine or Hockey's lynch at this point is pretty close to guaranteed, I have a question: if the person who is lynched turns out to be protown, what will become of the other? No need to say what will happen if me or Hockey comes up scum, I can figure that one out.

[Hockeyruler]

Continuing from yesterday...

I think surely there's been enough talk about odd defences, role-fishing and his support of the CJ lynch post-lynch that you couldn't have missed some scummyness coming from Toledo. Kiku, myself, Hero and Tenchi's recent analysis have all found some form of fault or suspicion with Toledo, often with a fair amount of detail. I also called for his lynch and voted him with a list of reasons and suspicious posts in my first major analysis summary post, a pretty prominent post. This seems like an attempt to both distance yourself from Toledo and at the same time clear him of suspicion, both of which are far from successful in my eyes.

I think his role fishing post was more curious than anything else? Regardless it deffinitly fit into the newbie category more than scummy, in my opinion. And yes he did say that he didn't feel bad for CJ being lynched, but I myself said this so I can't really find fault with it....

I fail to see how that looks at all like distancing myself, I stated quite easily the truth. Looking over his "rolefishing" post again (unless there is another post like this, I don't honestly think it can be fishing) It really did not try and get anyone to list a role and only mentioned hero, I feel if he was fishing for roles he would have given a list of people with their possible roles, not make mention of one person. I guess he has maybe stood at the outside of arguements, but I haven't noticed it (haha)


I don't really know what else to say besides this, I haven't meant to not post as often, I have been busy. And I think its quite frankly rude to say stuff like "hes only been posting in defense of himself" and yet when I say other things they're all shot down. My voting of CJ made sense to me, yet to some of you (Hero, etc) it didn't, and to others (Feeres, Toledo) it did.

[Hero764]

My voting of CJ made sense to me, yet to some of you (Hero, etc) it didn't, and to others (Feeres, Toledo) it did.

It doesn't make sense because you have two completely different stories about the vote. One is that he looked like scum acting like that, and another is that he was being an unhelpful townie(which, lynching him for that is almost as scummy as you can get). The fact that you still have failed to properly explain yourself has made you look all the scummier.

I fail to see how that looks at all like distancing myself, I stated quite easily the truth. Looking over his "rolefishing" post again (unless there is another post like this, I don't honestly think it can be fishing) It really did not try and get anyone to list a role and only mentioned hero, I feel if he was fishing for roles he would have given a list of people with their possible roles, not make mention of one person. I guess he has maybe stood at the outside of arguements, but I haven't noticed it (haha)

It might be bias, but this reeks of defending a scumbuddy. Either that or you're just trying to start arguments to "stay involved". Anyways, he doesn't have to name multiple people...that would be incredibly obvious.

[SerialClergyman]

A few things..

@Hockeyruler - I'm sorry that you found it to be rude, but unfortunately in this game when lies and bravado are mixed up with the truth, some accusations may seem more rude than they're meant to be. I've enjoyed playing with you and your temperment and posts have been fine - I just think you're mafia.

@ Feeres and kiku - Some good points in your discussion from both sides. I suspect if we were to lynch and flip town perhaps this would be looked at again, and it's worth being cautious, but overall I think there isn't too much disagreement in your posts.

@ all - There is an assumptions that I've only mentioned lightly but that are starting to be taken as fact, and I just thought I'd bring it up to remind us all that it may not be true. The major assumption is that Hero v Tenchi is a town v town argument. I suspect this to be the case and I think it fits the gamestate nicely, but that is an assumption, and if, for example, our lynches went Hockey scum, Toledo town then a 3 man lylo - Tenchi MUST be looked at with suspicion because of his quicklynch with Hockey. So all I'm saying is at the moment that assumption is a good working hypothesis, but it's also far from proven true.

The question Toledo asks in his last post is a good one. We do have to realise that it's possible we get a town flip here and all the people gunning for one of them must come under more suspicion, myself included. We will need to look at who is making sense, who is jumping on the wagon, who is making logical leaps etc. However we're never going to get anywhere unless we actively hunt out the scum, and simply the amount of questions, answers, cases and defenses that we've had over the last 2 weeks will give the town a pretty big advantage even if we end up down with 5 men.

This does NOT mean we should change who we think is scummy. That question would apply no matter WHO we lynch today. I also feel, and this is more of a personal view, that while I can see a link between Toledo and Hockey, I don't feel that suspicion of either depends on that link. That is, if I knew Hockey was town right now, I don't feel Toledo is much more town - he'd still look scummy without that link.

To the who to lynch debate -

Toledo seems utterly unwilling to defend himself. He seems to acknowledge his lynch may be likely but doesn't want to mention any of the evidence brought up against him. Since I joined on April 22, I've had 20 posts (though I've been very active). Toledo has had 3 - including the one above. The other two were in response to Feeres' set of questions. I agree that he is suspiciously quiet when faced with such a situation - perhaps more votes and pressure would change that. It's worth remembering if he's not our lynch today.

Hockey's recent posts do not persuade me in the least. And the recent analysis of his post a couple of days ago that I gave seems to still hold water. I also feel the argument that Hockey is in a more suspicious place with regards to scumbuddies and the gamestate is a good argument that most people don't seem to acknowledge or be persuaded by - that is, Hockey was more suspicious on the quicklynch on D1, he may have possible links to Tenchiscum as well as TOledoscum - his lynch just seems to me to uncover more information about the setup of the mafia - whether he comes up scum like we imagine he will or town if we got it wrong.

So for those reasons I'm going ot stick with Hockey.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

5 Days to Deadline

Vote Count

Tenchi - 1 (Toledo88)
Toledo88 - 1 (Feeres)

Hockeyruler - 2 (Hero764, SerialClergyman)

Not Voting - 3 (Hockeyruler, kikuchiyo, Tenchi)

4 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Monday, May 4th (Eastern, GMT - 4).

[Tenchi]

I'll be back with the game full force after a 1-2 days.

I just find the current vote count odd. I would actually suspect Toledo to be getting more votes, due to what I found.

Note that I will be hammering Toledo if it came down to that.

I have yet to read the additional posts.

[Hero764]

Where did all the activity go? If no one else has anything to add I think we should just go with the lynch. I'm advocating hockey for reasons stated.

[SerialClergyman]

I've been watching, I'm just waiting for something of substance to make a post to - my last post still stands as my current opinion.

If there's any questions undecided people would like to ask now's the time.

I also had something to say to Tenchi but I'll wait till his post (he's coming back full force in a couple of days, I see)

-A

[SerialClergyman]

-A

Sorry - my real name starts with an A and I always end my emails like that, so force of habit - it's not some clue or sign or something.

[kikuchiyo]

Sorry guys. I have been ill. I would like to reread and make a decision, but realistically, I will need a couple of days. If anything, please be sure we get a roleclaim from our lynch candidate and avoid ending the day earlier than necessary. I would like to use as much of the time allotted in order to make a decision here. You can expect a content post sometime this weekend.

[Feeres]

Do not have anything to add, my vote stands as it is, just waiting for the other people to get active. Meanwhile... 1st of May celebrations!

[Hockeyruler]

I'm here, but I don't really have anything to add besides stuff that I've already said.

So I'll just watch my fate. And happy 1st of may to you too Feeres!

[Hero764]

We're not getting anywhere, and the dead line is in 3 days =/.

[Hero764]

I'll get some discussion going...

Toledo88: Any reason you still have a vote on Tenchi? Do you agree that hockeyruler looks scummy? If not, post your reasoning.

The fact that hockey and Toledo are neglecting to defend themselves and instead just "accepting their fate" makes them look like scum giving up imo. If you were town you would be able to justify yourself to some extent, right?

[Hockeyruler]

I have defended myself!!!! Maybe you failed to notice how I said "I don't really have anything to add besides things that I've already said"

It would just lead me to once again list why I voted for CJ. Do you have any questions besides that?

[Hero764]

Well what you've already said hasn't been good enough

And ok, did you vote for CJ because he was an unhelpful townie, or because you thought he was mafia acting that way as a disguise?

Why did you make two different stories?

And why haven't you voted yet?

[SerialClergyman]

We have to get some votes on the table. Kiku, Tenchi, Hockey - we need you to put your votes down, if you don't feel like you have to say anything else.

Since there's a lack of discussion, I'll revisit a suspicion that I've been thinking on for a couple of days.

Enlightening Thoughts:

1. Absence of Toledo and Kikuchyo in his posts. Especially Toledo.
2. It is very unlikely that Hockey and Hero are scum together.
3. Hero has focused on his defense lately. I think it is rather time for him to show what he thinks of other people.
4. With that I note he is less aggressive D2. He had CJMiller and Hero and Feeres as suspects D1. Right now he has none (from what I read).
4. He lacks alternative suspects/scumhunting starting D2. He hasn't even made a vote or an FoS.
5. I am totally on the fence with him, just because he defended me. Yet I am surprised why he hasn't pushed back on Hero. From that, I'm assuming he is also on the fence with Tenchi vs Hero.
6.

Watch for wishy washiness and lack of putting up a stance. Watch if he starts to piggyback or put up BS cases (see Hockey vs Feeres, I felt Hockey was bordering BSing at the beginning.). Finally, watch association with Toledo.

This was Tenchi's list of suspicious behaviour to look for on Hockey. (my italics)

Tenchi - you say that you are leaning more otwards Toledo yet Hockey seems ot hit every note on that list exactly. He is still extraordinarily wishy-washy, does not put up a stance. He still hasn't voted. He has tried ot put up bs cases (tenchi and hero scum together) and he has shown some link with Toledo, defending Toledo's rolefishing as minor.

I am bringing this up because I am still a little nervous about Tenchi's links with Hockey, given the quicklynch day 1. I'm a little surprised, therefore, to see Hockey so firmly do everything tenchi was looking for and yet for Tenchi to be reluctant to vote him.

Either way, the more people don't put their votes on the table, the more the vote can be influenced at the last moment by those who haven't voted yet.

Can we please come ot some consesnsus and start pressuring a person (I still vote Hockey for reasons stated in 341 that I really don't think have been addressed by anyone unwilling to vote Hockey) so that we can move on and now leave ourselves open to an ill-considered deadline lynch?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

2 Days to Deadline

Vote Count

Tenchi - 1 (Toledo88)
Toledo88 - 1 (Feeres)

Hockeyruler - 2 (Hero764, SerialClergyman)

Not Voting - 3 (Hockeyruler, kikuchiyo, Tenchi)

4 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Monday, May 4th (Eastern, GMT - 4).

[kikuchiyo]

Honestly, I have been sick. I haven't had time to reread, but I certainly don't like how this lynch has been steering away from Tenchi. At first, it made some sense, but hockey's latest posts seem like desparate town caught in a tough spot. Hockey didn't quicklynch day 1, that was Tenchi. Giving such an anti-town action a free pass just doesn't seem like asmart idea. Tenchi has basically been trying to set everyone up to look like scum just by describing their play.

Vote: Tenchi

If Toledo is scum and wants to bus his scumpartner to stay off a town wagon, I see no reason to let Tenchi walk. There is only one scenario in which I don't see Toledo as scum. I will share that when and if the time is right.

I will check in again before deadline. If need be, I will switch my vote. I apologize for lack of content, but I have been bed ridden for two days and really need to get my energy back up for work on Monday.

[Tenchi]

Will be posting within 24 hours.

[Toledo25]

Can't post much now, I shall tomorrow hopefully.

[Hero764]

I'll be making my final vote decision after Tenchi and Toledo post. I'm still leaning towards hockey though.

[Tenchi]

I'm back.

I will be reading/having dinner.

I will make a final decision today.