Newbie 769 - Game Over

[Tenchi]

Also, one big thing here: me flipping town does NOT clear anyone, especially Hockey.

[SerialClergyman]

I'll hold off on saying anything about your analysis because I'm keen for more people to get their say in.

I'll just mention to your last post - again, it becomes a matter of probability. If we lynch you and you flip town, I suspect it would be very difficult to place a lylo lynch on Hockey. Part of why I and others suspect you two is the apparant collusion to quicklynch a townie, and if you were town, that entire side of the case is derailed against Hockey.

I don't mean to give either you or Hockey a free pass if the other is lynched and townflips, but on the balance of probabilities I'd imagine we'd be looking elsewhere in our lylo D3.

[Hero764]

Hi. Thanks for your welcome. Before I get onto much gameplay stuff, I have to say your style of writing really doesn't endear me to your case. Saying that someone is full of shit, TALKING IN CAPS, saying things like you gotta be kidding me - all of that stuff doesn't actually improve your case at all and only serves to make me not want to listen to you. Others will disagree with you, it can be frustrating. Time to man up, take a breath and find reasons. If you feel you have given plenty - make a summary case. If you feel there are unanswered questions, work out the most important ones and type them out again. Howling at the moon because you are sure you're correct is unhelpful.

See that's the thing. I've given plentiful reasons for my cases and yet they are ignored a lot. Am I not allowed to get angry on a mafia game?

The Feeres day 1 thing is minor, but similar to Hockey's recent issue. Feeres said that he randomed a vote on a player, then changed it to an FoS because he was worried about how high the vote count was getting. In the same post, he ALSO said he was FoSing because he was suspicious of the player. So - a) which one is it? Is he suspicious or is he your random vote that you changed to an FoS purely to avoid stacking? b) if you are suspicious of a player, why random vote at all? Those questions were barely addressed by Feeres, and similarly to Hockey, even if his story changed to adapt ot the criticism and his CURRENT story makes sense, that's not how it went down according ot the post history. The reason why it's possibly scummy is that it heaped further suspicion on CJ while allowing him to distance himself (Oh no, that was a random vote, I wasn't pushing the wagon on a townie).

He addressed all of these questions, and it was pretty obvious what the answers were(to me at least, obviously not to others) before he even said anything.

a) He found CJ suspicious, but not suspicious enough to vote(which was reasoned also by the fact that his votes were piling up). The random vote thing had nothing to do with it at this point, it just happened by coincidence(as he said).

b) He stated that he made his random vote before reading through the thread.

Saying things like if scum always did what scum is supposed to do scumhinting would be easy, and sure she's helpful but sometimes helpful players end up being scum - doesn't hold much water. It's like the 'too townie' or 'too scummy' argument. Of course we are unable to be certain about someone - it's a game of incomplete information. But if you had someone who is acting town and someone who is acting scum, there's no point trying to work out if it's the odd time that the scummy person is town and the townie person is scum - you just have to go by the probabilities that scummy action = scum and townie action - town.

It obviously does hold water since there have been games where it happened. Anyways, kiku is not my main concern right now by any means, and I'm thinking she's probably town. I was just throwing the possibility out there.

As for Hockey, no need to ask if I'm kidding when I'm agreeing with you about his scummyness. There's no need to go over the points that have dragged on for ages without getting anywhere - I summarised the points you made against him and added more. I agree with most of the case against him.

Uhm, no. You said he was always there to answer questions, when clearly the opposite was true.

Or would you prefer to be Hero, going missing for 40 posts and only popping up with minor posts when he hears his name?

What are you talking about?

@the debate issue: Two things:
1) I'm not tunnelvisioned. I've been focusing on hockeyruler specifically as well, and posting suspicions of other players. Its just that the thing with Tenchi wouldn't end because he kept denying what I was saying.
2) Do you think me and Tenchi have equal stances in the issue(ie. one is not more justifiable than the other)?

Not much to say on Tenchi's notes. If there's anything you want me to address in them let me know.

[Hero764]

Also, one big thing here: me flipping town does NOT clear anyone, especially Hockey.

Big contradiction. Post 229 you state that:

I have some problems with this.

1. I don't think Hockey is likely scum. Well I think he's 40% scum, maybe less.
2. You are setting both of us for a back to back lynch. When/Even if I flip town, I feel you'd set him up for the next lynch, which will cost us the game.
3. In the situation of the quicklynch, I don't think Hockey is scum. He couldn't have expected me to hammer. (If you have a case against him that accuses him of quicklynching CJMiller, then I say you shouldn't do that.)

Please do not set Hockey for a back to back lynch with the CJMiller thing as base on his case.

1. You say that Hockey isn't likely to be scum. Minor thing, but still interesting.
2. Here you state that by voting for you voting for hockey would surely end in a loss. This contradicts what you've just said.
3. And yet now you say that it

especially

doesn't clear Hockey.

[Feeres]

I'm making a post where I'll try to address all the issues at hand, especially concerning me, so just few moments that I get my things together. I kinda promised a post yesterday but the moment I got home I fell asleep after not sleeping much at all the previous night. >_>

[SerialClergyman]

@ Hero:

You can get as angry as you like, but it doesn't do anything except make me not want to listen to you. You don't have to take my advice at all, but you make good points that get lost in bluster, to my mind. Take it on board or not.

As for Feeres - we disagree. To my mind, if he found CJ suspicious, why mention anything baout the random vote thing? Why random vote at all? Anyway - it doesn't matter hugely, we just disagree.

As for the debate about kiku - I perhaps didn't epxlain myself when I said it didn't hold water. I agree with you that scummy actions don't always mean scum and townie actions don't always mean town. My point is that that doesn't matter too much. It is always possible - anything is possible. But we have to make our judgements on limited information. If you see someone acting townie, it's still

possible

they are scum, but you probably aren't likely to vote them. So by all means be cautious, and by all means remember that rarely is anything definite in this game, but don't fall into the trap of double guessing yourself - most of the time scummy actions denote scum and townie actions denote town.

For Hockey - I didn't make myself clear, which is why you didn't understand the second part either. When I said that he was always there to answer questions, I should have said he was ONLY there to answer questions. In the last 100 posts, Hockey has posted a suspiciously few amount of times, and almost every time has been a direct response to him seeing his name. That means he is keeping up with the game without posing - active lurking, a big scumtell in my experience.

The what are you talking aobut quote should be Hockey, not Hero. My point in that exchange was Hero seems to have worked himself in a safer position than Tenchi because of the active lurking that I described above.

Sorry about the poor wording and Hero/Hockey nameswap - I've written about 5000 words in 2 days about this game and occasionally I'll make that kind of mistake.

For the debate - I disagree with you aobut your tunnelvision - even if I condeede that you've targetted Hockey as well. You've still left 4 people completely unanalysed. Almost everyone has. That's not a criticism, you have your reads on players and you should go with that, but I think especially since the argument had stalled a while ago and was going in circles, it would have helped the town to start talking aobut some of the issues with the other players.

As for your question in 2), I feel that Tenchi and Hockey are the most likely scumteam at the moment. So I agree with you in terms of the argument. (Note: I feel that Toledo is the scummiest player, but I'm not so sure about a partner for him.) But for the five reasons I detailed earlier, I think it's in the town's benefit to lynch elsewhere today, or at the very least, look elsewhere first. And I also feel that a good deal of the case against them is their link to each other - if we lynched one and found scum I'd immediately be prepared to lynch the second.

Is there any chance you would vote for someone other than Tenchi or Hockey today? Or have you made your mind up already?

What do you think about the idea of Tenchi providing us with a case on someone who is less central ot the game at the moment, like Feeres or Toledo? If we were to lynch that person, with or without your vote, and they turned up scum, would you be prepared to reassess your views on Tenchi?

[SerialClergyman]

I think Hero in 278 makes some excellent points - that is a direct contradiction.

@ Tenchi - Did anything happen between 229 and 278 to change your mind on Hero?

@ Hero - one last question - if we lynched Tenchi/Hockey today and they flipped town, would you be gunning for Hockey/Tenchi the next day? ie - if we lynched one, do you think that clears the other enough to look elsewhere for our lylo vote?

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP -
Oh my God, I did it again. Dammit.

The what are you talking aobut quote should be Hockey, not Hero. My point in that exchange was Hero seems to have worked himself in a safer position than Tenchi because of the active lurking that I described above.

So sorry, that should be ..HOCKEY seems to have worked himself...

My point again is that Tenchi is out in the open talking a lot and drawing attention to himself while Hockey is hiding in the shadows a lot more. This makes me suspect hockey more than Tenchi.

Sorry aobut all the typos

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP:

@ Tenchi - Did anything happen between 229 and 278 to change your mind on Hero?

This isn't even funny any more. For some reason Hockey and Hero go together in my mind. Maybe I'm Canadian.

Tenchi, that question obviously should be has anything happened in that time to change your mind on HOCKEY.

Sorry all again

[Hero764]

If I don't address some of your post its because I generally agree with what it says, or think that the discussion needs to go no further.

For Hockey - I didn't make myself clear, which is why you didn't understand the second part either. When I said that he was always there to answer questions, I should have said he was ONLY there to answer questions. In the last 100 posts, Hockey has posted a suspiciously few amount of times, and almost every time has been a direct response to him seeing his name. That means he is keeping up with the game without posing - active lurking, a big scumtell in my experience.

Ah. I gotcha.

The what are you talking aobut quote should be Hockey, not Hero. My point in that exchange was Hero seems to have worked himself in a safer position than Tenchi because of the active lurking that I described above.

Sorry about the poor wording and Hero/Hockey nameswap - I've written about 5000 words in 2 days about this game and occasionally I'll make that kind of mistake.

It's no problem.

Is there any chance you would vote for someone other than Tenchi or Hockey today? Or have you made your mind up already?

I would be willing to lynch anyone if I were convinced enough. Right now Tenchi, Hockey, and somewhat Toledo are the only ones who I am considering at the moment. Tenchi's latest post has reaffirmed my suspicions of him.

What do you think about the idea of Tenchi providing us with a case on someone who is less central ot the game at the moment, like Feeres or Toledo? If we were to lynch that person, with or without your vote, and they turned up scum, would you be prepared to reassess your views on Tenchi?

If Tenchi was able to do that, coupled with all of his other behavior, I would probably come to the conclusion that he was bussing. I'm open to other suggestions though of course.

@ Hero - one last question - if we lynched Tenchi/Hockey today and they flipped town, would you be gunning for Hockey/Tenchi the next day? ie - if we lynched one, do you think that clears the other enough to look elsewhere for our lylo vote?

Like I've said, I believe that at least one of them is scum. So I would probably be going against the other one. I would still be open to suggestions though.

Other Note: If Tenchi fails to address my point about his contradiction well enough I think he should definitely be our Day 2 lynch. Do you agree?

[SerialClergyman]

I won't address anything much for the same reason as you, and because we do need some input from Feeres/kiku/Toledo/Hockey into this discussion.

I'll answer your question though - I am not in favour of a Tenchi or Hockey lynch until we explore other players and really address how they might be scum, or linked with scum. We need to have more of a backup plan if H/T does flip town, and we need more info for power roles, I think. Plus, I genuinely do suspect Toledo, as I said. But I'm certainly not against a lynch of either in principle.

I also would be very hesitant if one flipped town to vote the other. If, for argument's sake, we lynched Tenchi town, kiku died overnight and we're left with Hero, SC, Hockey, Toledo and Feeres - I think it's way too big a risk to vote Hero. I'd be angling much more towards Toledo and Feeres.

[SerialClergyman]

OH FOR GOD'S SAKE

EBWOP:

I would be hesitant to vote HOCKEY.

No more posts for me tonight, 2:45am here.

[Tenchi]

WATCH FOLKS HOW HERO WORKS HIS MAGIC AGAIN!

Also, one big thing here: me flipping town does NOT clear anyone, especially Hockey.

Big contradiction. Post 229 you state that:

I have some problems with this.

1. I don't think Hockey is likely scum. Well I think he's 40% scum, maybe less.
2. You are setting both of us for a back to back lynch. When/Even if I flip town, I feel you'd set him up for the next lynch, which will cost us the game.
3. In the situation of the quicklynch, I don't think Hockey is scum. He couldn't have expected me to hammer. (If you have a case against him that accuses him of quicklynching CJMiller, then I say you shouldn't do that.)

Please do not set Hockey for a back to back lynch with the CJMiller thing as base on his case.

1. You say that Hockey isn't likely to be scum. Minor thing, but still interesting.
2. Here you state that by voting for you voting for hockey would surely end in a loss. This contradicts what you've just said.
3. And yet now you say that it

especially

doesn't clear Hockey.

[/quote]

1. I think Hockey isn't likely to be scum because you are badgering him and I think YOU are scum.
2. If you are scum, you are doing one hell of a job trying to breadcrumb a back to back town lynch. I hope they catch onto you. Obviously you and Hockey cannot be scum together.
3. I was responding to SC's observation that my TownFlip removes a lot of suspicion against Hockey.

[Tenchi]

I think Hero in 278 makes some excellent points - that is a direct contradiction.

@ Tenchi - Did anything happen between 229 and 278 to change your mind on Hockey?

YES. Toledo is a close second suspect and noticing the lack of interaction with Hockey (or avoidance of giving an opinion on him), brings me blaring sirens over my head. Note here that I am basing my change of opinion of Hockey on Toledo's behavior.

I unvoted for now since I can't find Hero's "partner". But I am still strongly annoyed by how Hero kept on twisting my words and misrepping me the whole game! And for that I still think he's scum.

[Tenchi]

OH SHIT I MESSED UP THE TOLEDO SUMMARY:

For the record:

TOLEDO

1. Toledo CANNOT be scum with HERO
2. If Toledo is Scum, Hockey is his probable partner. See # 16. I haven't done a review on Hockey yet but I am noting the lack of interaction between them.
3. Very "in" when it comes to the "hot" issues. Tries to scumhunt but then becomes wishy washy on providing solid reasons.
4. Right now, I don't even know what he thinks of Feeres. He folded when Kikuchiyo confronted him the clearing on 11.
5. Rolefisher. And he did it twice. See 14 and 17.
6. Big speculation on the NK. (See 11.) I can't put a finger on it but the whole speculative post just doesn't seem right. I suggest somebody to review that for me.
7. Highly Probable Scum.
8. Watch if continues to be unnecessarily middle of the road and echoing people's thoughts. Watch for piggybacking also. Watch rolefishing. Cross-check interaction with Hockey.

[Hero764]

1. I think Hockey isn't likely to be scum because you are badgering him and I think YOU are scum.
2. If you are scum, you are doing one hell of a job trying to breadcrumb a back to back town lynch. I hope they catch onto you. Obviously you and Hockey cannot be scum together.
3. I was responding to SC's observation that my TownFlip removes a lot of suspicion against Hockey.

1. Which brings up a question of mine: Why do you think I'm scum? Other than OMGUS reasons, of course.
2. And if I'm not scum?
3. But according to you, hockey isn't really suspicious at all. Why are you now suggesting that he should be suspected?

But I am still strongly annoyed by how Hero kept on twisting my words and misrepping me the whole game! And for that I still think he's scum.

OMGUS then? I have no twisted your words once, so don't even try that.

[Tenchi]

3. But according to you,

hockey isn't really suspicious at all

. Why are you now suggesting that he should be suspected?

Do you see what's wrong with that statement? I told you he is likely to be Town (around <40% scum). Nowhere did that say that he isn't suspicious at all.

My dillemma here is that I have two "scum factions" which I am trying to get my head around:

1. You and somebody (not Kikuchiyo, not Feeres)
2. Toledo and Hockey (still haven't done that Hockey review though)

3. The contradictory element here is that I feel that you and Hockey cannot be scum together. Also, Toledo has suspected you a fair amount.

If you are not scum then we are so royally screwed. To prevent that, I suggest that you look into my reviews without bias.

[Hero764]

Do you see what's wrong with that statement? I told you he is likely to be Town (around <40% scum). Nowhere did that say that he isn't suspicious at all.

We've already been through this. Point 2 on post 229, you state that lynching hockey will result in us losing. This means you are he is town, as obviously lynching mafia will not result in us losing.

My dillemma here is that I have two "scum factions" which I am trying to get my head around:

1. You and somebody (not Kikuchiyo, not Feeres)
2. Toledo and Hockey (still haven't done that Hockey review though)

3. The contradictory element here is that I feel that you and Hockey cannot be scum together. Also, Toledo has suspected you a fair amount.

If you are not scum then we are so royally screwed. To prevent that, I suggest that you look into my reviews without bias.

Why would we be royally screwed? =/ And I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say reviews. The notes you made? If so I did read them without bias, I'm not sure what you want me to see in them though.

[Hero764]

EBWOP:

This means you are he is town

should be:

This means you are sure he is town

[Tenchi]

Do you see what's wrong with that statement? I told you he is likely to be Town (around <40% scum). Nowhere did that say that he isn't suspicious at all.

We've already been through this. Point 2 on post 229, you state that lynching hockey will result in us losing. This means you are he is town, as obviously lynching mafia will not result in us losing.

Yes to me.

You are not seeing this from MY point of view.

I think YOU are scum. Therefore, from the POV you both cannot be buddies. Therefore in Hockey vs Hero, I think YOU are scum. Hence on that argument alone, I think Hockey is probTown. Can't you see something from my POV for once?

[Tenchi]

Why would we be royally screwed? =/ And I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say reviews. The notes you made? If so I did read them without bias, I'm not sure what you want me to see in them though.

Yeah, ignore my notes. Because your name wasn't there and it doesn't directly concern you.

[Tenchi]

Can you please stop badgering me. You obviously have no plans of hearing me out here. Everybody gets the case against me. Can you just give me a moment to lay out my "last words"?

I'm already pretty much dead. I don't know what you are doing to make me much "deader".

[Hero764]

Yes to me.

You are not seeing this from MY point of view.

I think YOU are scum. Therefore, from the POV you both cannot be buddies. Therefore in Hockey vs Hero, I think YOU are scum. Hence on that argument alone, I think Hockey is probTown. Can't you see something from my POV for once?

So you weren't posting through your POV when you said that the suspicion on hockey should be continued?

Yeah, ignore my notes. Because your name wasn't there and it doesn't directly concern you.

What the hell? I read your notes.

Can you please stop badgering me. You obviously have no plans of hearing me out here. Everybody gets the case against me. Can you just give me a moment to lay out my "last words"?

I'm already pretty much dead. I don't know what you are doing to make me much "deader".

I've given you plenty of chances to explain yourself, and all you do is accuse me of twisting your words, trying to force the town into a back-to-back lynch. You've not even properly addressed my first post on day 2.

And I'm still waiting for any other reasons for me being scum, other than me suspecting you.

[Hero764]

And I want to know why we would be royally screwed. That didn't make much sense.

[Hero764]

EBWOP:

I've given you plenty of chances to explain yourself, and all you do is accuse me of twisting your words, trying to force the town into a back-to-back lynch, etc. You've not even properly addressed my first post on day 2.

Fixed to avoid confusion.