Mini 754 - Frogs Mafia Game, Set and Match.

[Shanba]

Post 500 is mine!

Vote Count:

3: Dizzyizzyb13

(Gorrad, TSQ, mbf)

2: Gorrad

(Izzy, scotmany)

2: mikeburnfire

(MacLock, ckd)
Not Voting:

Citizen Karne, dahill1, Raging Rabbit

[MacavityLock]

Mafia is also a game of cut and dry analysis, and it's pretty obvious to me that since Izzy knew the townie flavor before we got any sort of confirmation on it, that makes her at least somewhat more likely to be a townie.

As we don't yet know what scum flavor constitutes, this is a bad argument. I refer you to my "vampire duck" theory from post 303, which has not been ruled out.

[Raging Rabbit]

If there wasn't a theory that makes Izzy a possible scum duck, or quite a few theories actually, she'd be confirmed rather than more likely innocent.

[curiouskarmadog]

I see the case on MBF, but still like Gorrad's better. Will explain it in full tomorrow if I have more time tomorrow.

looking forward to hearing about this.

[MacavityLock]

If there wasn't a theory that makes Izzy a possible scum duck, or quite a few theories actually, she'd be confirmed rather than more likely innocent.

Fine, I see the distinction, but it seems that I value it less than others do..

[DizzyIzzyB13]

I probably went too far saying I was "confirmed". Still, I believe the fact that he flipped duck is a point in my favour, since Cayke's duck-claim came at a point where the general consensus of the game appeared to be that Townies are frogs of some kind. Not wishing to out-guess the mod, but surely in a game called Frog Mafia, in which the flavour text of the game's opening suggests the town are frogs, giving someone the safe-claim "Duck" is delf-defeating, since safe-claims are supposed to be believable.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok, so I've done a lot of digging on izzy, and here's what I feel.

Here's a lot of problems I have with the claim.

1) She was one of the main driving forces in getting archon lynched. This makes no sense to me, because if I were masons with someone, I probably wouldn't even mention them unless forced to. The claim that "She didn't have alignment confirmation." and therefore wanted to lynch him makes little sense, as scum mason is a very rarely used role. Even if like, they were scum masons, that makes izzy more likely to be scum, because the behavior of crywolf/izzy (i.e. aggressively attacking one they know to be pro town) is behavior that fits far more with the scum side of the mason pair than the town, and since we know archon was town....

2) As I said, the way the claim was bandied about by izzy as being proof positive of her townieness to me just screams wrong. It reads almost 100% exactly like a scum who had a little piece of info about the setup, and used it to their advantage, wanting to draw attention to that fact. "Look at me, I knew ducks were town, isn't that great, don't you think that makes me look like a townie? Shit, yeah it does." is not something I have ever heard from an actual townie yet, in almost 4 years of playing online mafia. Town players tend not to assert their own innocence, except in their own defense. To draw attention to the fact that you're probably more likely to be town than scum when you are not being attacked is psychologically something that scum are way more likely to do than town, because as a town player you are not thinking about proving your townieness unless you're attacked for it, whereas a scum player is always thinking about whether or not they are looking like a townie.

Confirm vote: Izzy

Seriously.

[Raging Rabbit]

TSQ says some valid stuff in point 2, but I still disagree with his conclusion.

All my MS time is currently spent finally finishing another game, once it's over (a few days at most) there should be plenty of time for me to catch up here and be able to comment on more than just Izzy. I'm surprised she seems the main topic of discussion, franktly. I'd like to see this case on MBF, for one.

[scotmany12]

Just letting everyone know that this week has been really busy for me. I'll get something done over the weekend.

[Gorrad]

Just letting everyone know that this week has been really busy for me. I'll get something done over the weekend.

AKA Scotmany will post another one-liner stating that I'm scum in a day or two.

[Thestatusquo]

TSQ says some valid stuff in point 2, but I still disagree with his conclusion.

All my MS time is currently spent finally finishing another game, once it's over (a few days at most) there should be plenty of time for me to catch up here and be able to comment on more than just Izzy. I'm surprised she seems the main topic of discussion, franktly. I'd like to see this case on MBF, for one.

WHY?!

Seriously, what the hell about izzy makes you think she's town?

[Raging Rabbit]

TSQ says some valid stuff in point 2, but I still disagree with his conclusion.

All my MS time is currently spent finally finishing another game, once it's over (a few days at most) there should be plenty of time for me to catch up here and be able to comment on more than just Izzy. I'm surprised she seems the main topic of discussion, franktly. I'd like to see this case on MBF, for one.

WHY?!

Seriously, what the hell about izzy makes you think she's town?

The fact that she knew the townie flavor in advance. We've been over this.

Declaring yourself confrimed town for something like that is indeed very uncommon, but I can see why a replacement would want to say that in one of her first posts.

[curiouskarmadog]

TSQ, what is your take on Day 1 MBF blasting Gorrad for voting the claimed mason...then 8 posts later voting the claimed mason?, THEN...leaving the game for a bit and giving his vote to Gorrad? Do you feel like this is town play? Why are why not? Your thoughts on his vote today (even though he is voting with you)?

Also, what scenario do you think happened that Cry Scum knew about town ducks? He claimed yesterday when we had no clue about ducks, that didnt seem risky from a scum prespective?

Does anyone know (past games) if the Mod usually gives fake claims to scum? Might look that up.

[mikeburnfire]

TSQ, what is your take on Day 1 MBF blasting Gorrad for voting the claimed mason...then 8 posts later voting the claimed mason?, THEN...leaving the game for a bit and giving his vote to Gorrad? Do you feel like this is town play?

Hey, screw you man. Stop trying to get TSQ to turn on me!

On a related note, I've been sick this entire week. I blame being on a crowded airplane. Plan on me actually playing this game later today or tomorrow.

[curiouskarmadog]

turn on you? How do you know what his current position is on you?..is there a post I missed?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Also, what scenario do you think happened that Cry Scum knew about town ducks? He claimed yesterday when we had no clue about ducks, that didnt seem risky from a scum prespective?

Cry is a girl, dude.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Ok, so I've done a lot of digging on izzy, and here's what I feel.

Here's a lot of problems I have with the claim.

1) She was one of the main driving forces in getting archon lynched. This makes no sense to me, because if I were masons with someone, I probably wouldn't even mention them unless forced to. The claim that "She didn't have alignment confirmation." and therefore wanted to lynch him makes little sense, as scum mason is a very rarely used role. Even if like, they were scum masons, that makes izzy more likely to be scum, because the behavior of crywolf/izzy (i.e. aggressively attacking one they know to be pro town) is behavior that fits far more with the scum side of the mason pair than the town, and since we know archon was town....

We were neighbors, not masons. Meaning, specifically, that we do not know each others alignements. To me, since he's not confirmed in any way, the fact that he's a mason with me is irrelevent when analysing his play. His play said scum to me. Thus, I voted for him, as did enough other people that he was lynched. The fact that scum masons aren't used often is irrelevent - there was no confirmation, and the role used specifically ensures that there is no knowledge of each others alignements that it was a realistic possibility especially given the scummy nature of Archon/Haterade's behaviour.

Also, part of this confuses me: namely "(i.e. aggressively attacking one they know to be pro town)". Who knew Archon was pro-town? Town couldn't have known, and I particularly didn't know since, y'know, specific role designed to reprsent night-talkers who don't know each others alignments and all. The only people who could KNOW he was town would be Archon and scum. And you aren't Archon.

2) As I said, the way the claim was bandied about by izzy as being proof positive of her townieness to me just screams wrong. It reads almost 100% exactly like a scum who had a little piece of info about the setup, and used it to their advantage, wanting to draw attention to that fact. "Look at me, I knew ducks were town, isn't that great, don't you think that makes me look like a townie? Shit, yeah it does." is not something I have ever heard from an actual townie yet, in almost 4 years of playing online mafia. Town players tend not to assert their own innocence, except in their own defense. To draw attention to the fact that you're probably more likely to be town than scum when you are not being attacked is psychologically something that scum are way more likely to do than town, because as a town player you are not thinking about proving your townieness unless you're attacked for it, whereas a scum player is always thinking about whether or not they are looking like a townie.

Confirm vote: Izzy

Seriously.

Your point is based on the fact I wasn't being attacked. Hi. Look at the first post of the day. See how your point is undermined. Gorrad went on the attack straight away, which I found surprising since the neighbor (as opposed to mason) claim and the flavour of my claim had both been demonstrated by the lynch and the night kill. Both of which, whilst not as conclusive as my initial surprised reaction suggested, would surely at least point to the fact that I was more likely than not telling the truth. Gorrad's case is essentially "MUST BE SCUM MASON 'CAUSE YOU'RE NEIGHBORS AND NEIGHBORS ALWAYS HAVE ONE SCUM". I find it surprising that you have yet to react to this considering your assertion that you find my behviour suspicious solely because I didn't assume Archon was pro-town.

[curiouskarmadog]

Also, what scenario do you think happened that Cry Scum knew about town ducks? He claimed yesterday when we had no clue about ducks, that didnt seem risky from a scum prespective?

Cry is a girl, dude.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Also, what scenario do you think happened that Cry Scum knew about town ducks? He claimed yesterday when we had no clue about ducks, that didnt seem risky from a scum prespective?

Cry is a girl, dude.

This is a pet peeve of mine. You've fallen foul of it in games I've played before.

[dahill1]

The fact that she knew the townie flavor in advance. We've been over this.

but couldn't scum have been provided with this? it isn't uncommon for mods to include fake claims/flavor for scum, especially in theme games. this case seems to be clearing based on a conditional action which was based off of flavor again. as i said before, i'm not gonna be clearing anyone because of that

[dahill1]

We were neighbors, not masons. Meaning, specifically, that we do not know each others alignements. To me, since he's not confirmed in any way, the fact that he's a mason with me is irrelevent when analysing his play.

However, this statement is much different than Crywolf's, who basically wanted to lynch him because he was her neighbor.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

We were neighbors, not masons. Meaning, specifically, that we do not know each others alignements. To me, since he's not confirmed in any way, the fact that he's a mason with me is irrelevent when analysing his play.

However, this statement is much different than Crywolf's, who basically wanted to lynch him because he was her neighbor.

I am not Cayke. Based on my reading of the game, I believe this may have been influenced by Gorrad's insistence that it means that one of us must be scum, that several people seemed to have focused on.

Which, incidently, is one of the reasons I suspect Gorrad. Once Cay made her initial claim, he was the driving force behind getting the other neighbor to claim and puishing the notion that one must be scum, an argument he's now pushing to get the one he didn't lynch yesterday (me) lynched today. Assuming I'm town (from yoru perspective, sinc eI know I'm town already, obviously), is that not an ideal outcome for scum-Gorrad, getting two townie lynches in during the first two days with the in-built excuse that the mod is breaking the meta?

I'm very happy with my Gorrad vote.

[dahill1]

We were neighbors, not masons. Meaning, specifically, that we do not know each others alignements. To me, since he's not confirmed in any way, the fact that he's a mason with me is irrelevent when analysing his play.

However, this statement is much different than Crywolf's, who basically wanted to lynch him because he was her neighbor.

I am not Cayke. Based on my reading of the game, I believe this may have been influenced by Gorrad's insistence that it means that one of us must be scum, that several people seemed to have focused on.

while it may be true that you're not cayke, i can never truly know which one of the motives was meant. she could have been influenced by gorrad, but it also could have been scum trying to bandwagon on an easy lynch

Assuming I'm town (from yoru perspective, sinc eI know I'm town already, obviously), is that not an ideal outcome for scum-Gorrad, getting two townie lynches in during the first two days with the in-built excuse that the mod is breaking the meta?

well yes, but that is all assuming

[DizzyIzzyB13]

We were neighbors, not masons. Meaning, specifically, that we do not know each others alignements. To me, since he's not confirmed in any way, the fact that he's a mason with me is irrelevent when analysing his play.

However, this statement is much different than Crywolf's, who basically wanted to lynch him because he was her neighbor.

I am not Cayke. Based on my reading of the game, I believe this may have been influenced by Gorrad's insistence that it means that one of us must be scum, that several people seemed to have focused on.

while it may be true that you're not cayke, i can never truly know which one of the motives was meant. she could have been influenced by gorrad, but it also could have been scum trying to bandwagon on an easy lynch

What else can I say to that other than we are not scum?

Assuming I'm town (from yoru perspective, sinc eI know I'm town already, obviously), is that not an ideal outcome for scum-Gorrad, getting two townie lynches in during the first two days with the in-built excuse that the mod is breaking the meta?

well yes, but that is all assuming

Indeed, but it makes sense, no? And if I end up lynched today, I suggest you remember this post so, y'know, you can try and make up for two consecutive mislynches with Gorradscum.

[dahill1]

What else can I say to that other than we are not scum?

well saying things like that and "i'm town" aren't helping, that's for sure.