Mini 758 - Normalcy (GAME OVER)

[Plum]

Posting, posting:

RBT - I still do not like and still very much would like to lynch. I need to reread Caboose, but offhand I can think of little I found truly dubious, though will have to check up on the charge of preemptive defensiveness. In any case lynching Caboose to try to confirm me and strengthen Lowell's claim doesn't seem to have the right risk/reward ratio for me to endorse it (what with Caboose not being the scummiest player in my book by a long shot). If he's confirmed the town will likely lose the confirmed Townie (me, assuming Caboose is scum for just a sec, as the presented theory is that lynching Caboose is beneficial enough even if Caboose isn't scum) or the strengthened one-shot Tracker.

The argument re: should Caboose have claimed: One-shot Cop with his only result has to out himself to share it. Not sharing it the next Day risks losing that one piece of info he could get. Claiming regular Cop runs risks of, assuming he survives (Doc is likely to use protection on him, if there is a Doc) the town asking him for results. He claims that he was only One-shot

at that point

and scum can screw that to heck, if you get my drift.

@ Everyone: You confuse me by saying 'Lynch' when you mean NK - verb-wise, that is. Lynches are vote on during the day. NKs are kills at night, in this case, it would seem, by the Mafia.

Kieraen is bothering me A LOT. Have to run now, but a post detailing why coming ASAP.

---

The "Fayetteville, AR has a pretty good public transit system. -or- OMFG A REAL KEYBOARD" Votecount

Lowell (3) - EmpTyger, dejkha, Benmage

Riceballtail (2) - Lowell, Plum
Caboose (2) - Kieraen, Knight of Cydonia

Benmage (1) - Caboose

Not Voting (2):

Riceballtail, Atronach,

6 to lynch

[Knight of Cydonia]

Except Lowell's claim doesn't back him up, IIRC, it just says "he wouldn't be surprised" because of his one-shot role. You're making an awfully big leap of faith in saying "Caboose is mafia, he claimed a one-shot, Lowell claimed a one-shot, therefore he is mafia", not least in the fact that you're already saying "mafia Caboose" when we have no idea whatsoever about his alignment.

[Riceballtail]

I have a suspicion, should Lowell/Caboose be telling the truth that perhaps all the PRs are one-shots? While we obviously can't tell without someone else claiming, if there is another, then we can assuredly use that info to good use. Until then, however, we do run the risk of them being mafia. The thing that really bothers me is that people are hounding him for doing

the right thing

with a one-shot cop role. The thing that scares me is that Lowell could be trying to play off that as well.

TL;DR version: Caboose can be trusted. Carry on.

[Kieraen]

Okay okay, I just wanted to run with the theory a while.

I hear what your saying you don't like the gambit, and I suppose come to think of it, I'm not so horny with the idea either.

I would probably say I believe that he is a one shot cop. Claiming so early makes sense. I also think Plum has been very townie so far, so his result makes sense.

However both these points are WIFOM. Mafia would do the exact same. Im suprised Caboose didn't investigate a more suspicious person (Lowell or RBT for example would be my first investigation).

With Lowell, I honestly have no idea if he is right or not. His play has been suspicios but probably blown up to much, as I see RBT as playing pretty similair so far.

[Caboose]

Caboose:
I *really* don’t like how you are responding to questions without answering what’s being asked.

KoC wasn’t asking why you claimed an innocent on Plum.

He was asking why you claimed the 1-shot detail. Which I still want to know.

Because leaving out that detail would be lying. Not sure why I wouldn't claim that detail as it's pretty important.
<snip>

Not my question

. Why did you claim at all?

YES IT WAS YOUR QUESTION. Stop playing mind games with me. I told you why I claimed over and over, and everyone still keeps asking.

LISTEN UP EVERYONE:

My Claim: One-Shot Cop
Why I claimed: I only get a tidbit of info. No more. That's all there is, so there's no reason to sit on it.

(And, explain why that detail is so important to claim. Because to me, either the mafia don’t know about its significance detail, in which case why would you want to blurt it out. Or the mafia do know about it, in which case it means nothing. Except that you are reallyreally eager to be the first to claim and reallyreally insistent that it makes you innocent.)

What are you not getting?
If I don't put in the "one-shot" part, someone will ask me tomorrow for results and then it'll be a game of "OMG LAL!!!!1111"

I don't understand this. Do I need to be "figuring out who is guilty" in

every

post? My first post was a quick post just for everyone's info.

Please tell me the name of one person who has "found mafia" today so far.

The point isn’t finding mafia. It’s *trying* to find mafia, versus simply trying not be lynched.

I never thought I would see the day when a cop just posting his results turned into a scumtell.

Roleclaiming and clearing someone else isn't a scumtell. Also, defending yourself isn't a scumtell either.
<snip>

You’re not being accused of defending yourself, but of defending yourself when you weren’t being attacked.
Why not, instead of blithely declaring that your behavior is not a scumtell, you say what might be a scumtell in others’ behavior?

Because it's not.
Also, I would like you to stop saying "you're not answering the question" when I clearly did. It's annoying and slightly scummy because you're saying somethings that's just not true.

<snip>
Where's the huge hole? I must be missing it.

Um, the conveniently unused ability last night? Which conveniently requires a presumably 1-shot doctor to use up their ability tonight?

Who said a hypothetical doc was one-shot?

And this doesn't have anything to do with it being one-shot.

This is ridiculous and I’m *this* close to switching my vote to you. Considering how aghast and high-minded you got about oh-I-*had*-to-claim-cop-and-not-only-that-1-shot-cop-because-anything-less-than-that-would-be-a-lie when you declared Plum innocent, why are you being so incomplete and so dodgy in refusing to provide reasoning when you declare Lowell innocent?

Yes, I agree, my wagon IS ridiculous.

[Benmage]

I too think the Caboose wagon is wack, and probably scum backed.

I am cautious of those in favor of testing the waters to see others people's roles with a Caboose lynch.(Confirming Plum/Lowell's claim) I don't like this mentality because if wrong it kills off can innocent and gives the scum another free night; so in a sense you are condemning two innocents. (hence why i strongly feel the Caboose wagon is scum backed..for those reasons Kieran is deff rising on my scum radar.)

I'm still in favor of a Lowell lynch above all. RBT is fine in my book too.. we can't be the pickiest people here with the 10 day deadlines.

[Lowell]

You guys are dumb to blame caboose but not me.

Had I remembered my role I ALSO would have used it N1. There's no point in waiting with one-shots, as the chance of dying is too high.

That said, it's dumb to kill either of us.

[Atronach]

The longer this goes on, the more I believe Caboose and the more I doubt Lowell. I see Lowell's claim as opportunistic, claiming one-shot once someone he knows as town did. Therefore my

Vote:

Lowell is back on.

Kieran's reasons for lynching Caboose do not make me feel a town vibe. His recent change of opinion does not either. I think the Caboose wagon is, if not scum-backed, is poor town play.

FoS:

Kieraen, KoC.

I will be on a trip to Kansas City over the rest of weekend. I will be back Monday night.

[Lowell]

Okay I'll make a deal with you.

Don't lynch me today, lynch me tomorrow if you must. There are two alternatives:

1) I'm lying scum- there's nothing to be lost by letting me live until tomorrow.

2) I'm TELLING THE TRUTH- scum will have to decide whether or not to kill me to prevent me from using my one-shot ability. If they do, then that saves everyone a kill. If they don't, then at least I get a result out before I die.

[EmpTyger]

Benmage:
For the third time:

<snip>

spyrex gets townpoints. KoC does not. Carry on.

This stuff is always lame in my opinion…but is from my experience generally a townies move.
<snip>

<snip>

Vote Lowell

Her posts are absolutely useless. Nothing of real substance. One to two lines.
<snip>

What took you from “generally townie” to voteworthy?

---

Caboose:

<snip>
Roleclaiming and clearing someone else isn't a scumtell. Also, defending yourself isn't a scumtell either.
<snip>

You’re not being accused of defending yourself, but of defending yourself when you weren’t being attacked.
Why not, instead of blithely declaring that your behavior is not a scumtell, you say what might be a scumtell in others’ behavior?

Because it's not.

Not trying to find mafia is 100% a scumtell.

Also, I would like you to stop saying "you're not answering the question" when I clearly did. It's annoying and slightly scummy because you're saying somethings that's just not true.

Talk about saying something not true…

Where’s your clear answer to

Why do you think Lowell is innocent?

Where’s your clear answer to

Who do you think is mafia?

(Yes, I know, last time I accused you of this you in [180] quickly tossed a vote onto Benmage, because of “parroted reasoning”. And yet the only justification you have for that vote is parroted reasoning. Otherwise you’ve ignored him, before and since. But otherwise since Spyre, you’ve just been defending yourself- from before you were even attacked.)

<snip>
Where's the huge hole? I must be missing it.

Um, the conveniently unused ability last night? Which conveniently requires a presumably 1-shot doctor to use up their ability tonight?

Who said a hypothetical doc was one-shot?

I hypothesized it.

---

Lowell:

You guys are dumb to blame caboose but not me.
<snip>

Name one person who is doing this?

Temporary

unvote: Lowell

, to consider [208] however.

[EmpTyger]

Let me state unambiguously that I don't believe Lowell, but there's no reason not to give the benefit of the doubt, when there's enough others to lynch in the meantime.

Vote: dejkha

. This lurking has gone on too much to be legitimate, and he's posting elsewhere on site.

[Plum]

Some problems with Kieraen's play today (I have not done a full reread of him - here I am only addressing points on his play today):

First post Day 2 he says to RBT

I also dislike that you are selective in your suspicion. You have ALL the reason to doubt CABOOSE's claim and KoC is absolutely correct to want to discredit it within reason.

But he doesn't work on discrediting or doubting it immediately and/or explicitly.

Interesting. Caboose is defended by Lowell because he has a similair powerrole.

Or in other words, One of our top suspects defends another of our top suspects.

I imagine either both are right or wrong.

Complete false dilemma. I can easily see scum Lowell, town Caboose. Scum Caboose, town Lowell seems more remote but absolutely not something we need or want to toss out the window simply on the merit of the two claims. He builds a plan out of this false dilemma to lynch Caboose to try to confirm or incriminate Lowell - a bad plan because the results won't be nearly as easy to interpret as he argues they will be. Argues we lynch Caboose for this vague info

despite not having expressed strong feelings about Caboose being scummy at all

. I see he does say Day 1 that, while not entirely confortable with Caboose, Caboose is (at the reading and interpretation which would imply the strongest suspicions of Caboose by Kieraen) simply not a top suspect, and, while not seeming extremely townie, not very scummy either. He votes Caboose here.

Then he realizes one of the drawbacks of him plan and suggests we do the 'easier' thing, and lynch RBT - the player on whom his vote had been before he voted Caboose - but does not unvote Caboose. I think he doid mean to, though, as evidenced by the fact that in the post after that he votes Caboose again.

He posts an argument in favor of his 'lynch Caboose' gambit in the next post and votes him - and it's an argument that seems stupid, especially in context of Lieraen's utter lack of case made against Caboose himself. Makes assumption that we have a Doc. Why?

He acknowledes his wishy-washyness. Looking it over here, I say that it's definitely likely that it's scum wavering here.

His argument for the gambit being beneficial rests almost entirely on the assumption that we have a Doc.

Again, as One-Shot Cop, claiming when he did was the (or, at least, a) correct play for Caboose. Claiming regular Cop would have been a lie to open to door to screwups and scum chaos.

Then

he agrees again for the second time going back against his lynch-Caboose gambit

and

says that we can probably trust the claim. I don't see where this flip-flopping is coming from - except, quite possibly, floundering scum.

It's possible that Kieraen's just town playing erratically, but the evidence makes him look scummy.

Unvote; Vote: Kieraen

---

The "I don't understand the new RE5 commercial...it seems to suggest that if you play RE5, you will kill yourself...?" Votecount

Lowell (3) - dejkha, Benmage, Atronach

Caboose (2) - Kieraen, Knight of Cydonia

Riceballtail (1) - Lowell
Benmage (1) - Caboose
Dejkha (1) - EmpTyger
Kieraen (1) - Plum

Not Voting (1):

Riceballtail

6 to lynch

[Benmage]

Okay I'll make a deal with you.

Don't lynch me today, lynch me tomorrow if you must. There are two alternatives:

1) I'm lying scum- there's nothing to be lost by letting me live until tomorrow.

2) I'm TELLING THE TRUTH- scum will have to decide whether or not to kill me to prevent me from using my one-shot ability. If they do, then that saves everyone a kill. If they don't, then at least I get a result out before I die.

I'm willing to wait one day on lynching Lowell.

So switching vote to

vote Riceballtail

.

[Kieraen]

My gambit was umpopular and with too many flaws.

The cases againts Lowell and RBT are the same except that theres a chance Lowells has more to say.

So.

Vote RBT

[Riceballtail]

I think Plum's case is quite accurate. And I don't know of any kind of gambit that you could be talking about would be equated to your play. I also like the idea of Benmage being the third scum. Shall we finish them off today?

[Riceballtail]

Forgot this:

UNVOTE; VOTE:Kieraen

Looks like OMGUS, but I'd have done it with or without him voting me.

[Caboose]

I don't see the case on RBT.

My gambit was

umpopular

and with too many flaws.

Is the bolded reason the real reason you abandoned it?

So.

Vote RBT

Why do you think RBT is scum?

Mod: Please prod dejkha.

Done.

Where’s your clear answer to Why do you think Lowell is innocent?

His claim is believeable. Also, he hasn't done anything scummy since his day 1 crap attack.

Who do you think is mafia?

Will be answered soon.

I hypothesized it.

So you're using this hypothesis to justify you saying that there's a "huge hole" in Lowell's claim? And I don't see how him not using his ability makes a "huge hole" either. I wasn't going to use my ability N1, either, until the ridiculous bandwagon built on me Day 1.

[dejkha]

Oh wow, sorry everyone. I completely forgot about this game. I'll read the thread and make a post tomorrow.

[Benmage]

Benmage:
For the third time:

Missed the second time, answering your other question. But the question is already answered a little lower than the quote you use in my post 172.

There was also my post 160. Feel free to reread both.

Continuing my suspicions of her would follow her post 177, ‘claim anyways’…no real reason to claim, nor do I believe she conveniently forgot.

Also, please don't get so hung up on semantics...'generally townie' is pretty arbitrary as it doesn't mean 100% so it really means zilch in the long run.

[dejkha]

Why do you believe Cabooses claim so easy?

And can you post longer than five lines?

We have an option, whereby we can protect Lowell (who tracks tonight) and lynch Caboose to see if he is who he says he is.

I support a lynch of Caboose.

Unvote, Vote Caboose

So let me get this straight, Caboose, who is a top suspect for... well, I don't even know, since I didn't agree with the case on him on Day 1, claims to be a one shot cop and you don't believe it. But Lowell, who is still making a bunch of baseless one liners and, as far as I can tell, has yet to elaborate on Day 1 when he said "When I have a more complete take on things I'll share, I promise", is more likely to be a tracker that supposedly hasn't used his Night action?

It sounds like you're not even considering the fact that Lowell may not have used his tracking abilities because... he's not really a tracker. I doubt Caboose would fake claim with a fake result with the chance of their already being a one shot cop out their (unless there can be more than one at once, in which case, he might've).

I personally think Lowell is scummier, but you say an option is to lynch Caboose just to he if he is who he says. Why Caboose and not Lowell? You don't even give that as an option.

Have to say I'm certainly questioning the allegiance of those who doubt Caboose's claim, and moreover those who are voting against him. It doesn't seem like a mafia advantageous thing to do. (Even if mafia had a one-shot investigative move)

I don't believe Lowell's role claim...forgot about his ability... No sir.

^I agree with all of the above.

@Emptiger. If we lynch Caboose we find out:

a) He's a one shot cop: Plum is townie, Lowell's claim has more significance.

b) He's mafia: Plum is more likely mafia, Lowell's claim looks like bullshit, thefore more likely mafia.

a) Lowells claim has no more significance regardless of what Caboose flips.

b) You really think Caboose would risk his scumbuddy like that when he's one of the top suspects at the end of day 1 (aside from Spyre). If he's smart, I doubt he would.

I hear what your saying you don't like the gambit, and I suppose come to think of it, I'm not so horny with the idea either.

It's nice to see you try to sell theories without thinking them through.

The cases againts Lowell and RBT are the same except that theres a chance Lowells has more to say.

I don't think that RBT claimed a one-shot with a 50-50 likeliness and i don't think she made a baseless statement accompanied with a promise that she didn't keep.

Plum may have explained it a lot better than me, but that's what I think about Kieraen and I agree that his play is erratic. I'll make note of his rapidly changing votes as well.

Unvote Vote: Kieraen

FoS: Lowell

[Kieraen]

Time to claim I think.

Vanilla Townie.

With a deathwish.

Check my Meta, I'm not the best mafia player in the world...


Basically my thinking had a rather large assumption.

I assumed that Lowell and Caboose would have the same alignment given that they make the same claim. I think this is basically what everyones problem is with my argument.

I just thought I'd give it a shout out, but...

It's nice to see you try to sell theories without thinking them through.

must be QFT.

Not my best piece of play in the world... I'll admit.

I wanted to establish if we had one-shot powerroles in the game. By lynching one we either guaranteed the innocence of Plum, or established its scumminess.

When the play way examined it became clear it was full of holes (plum would be a likely lynch target if mafia, caboose's claim had little to do with Lowell's), however I always think aloud in games, and I don't truely think a mafia would be making such a play in this game do you?


Okay my attack on RBT is mainly for her lack of productivity in the game. It would be similair to how many people think of Lowell, but Lowell's powerclaim makes him a more interesting player to examine tomorrow following his tracking (assuming this is true).

How can I convince you I'm town? What aspect of my play can I explain further that will show that I am merely playing a (arguably) poorly thought out gambit.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Using a meta-defence of "not being the best player in the world"?
WIFOMing about "mafia wouldn't

really

push for a lynch of 1-shot power roles, would they?
A Vanilla Townie claim?
I've heard enough.

unvote; Vote Kieraen

---

The "Are there too many votecounts on this page?" Votecount

Kieraen (4) - Plum, Riceballtail, dejkha, Knight of Cydonia

Riceballtail (3) - Lowell, Kieraen, Benmage

Lowell (1) - Atronach
Benmage (1) - Caboose
Dejkha (1) - EmpTyger

Not Voting (0):

6 to lynch

[Atronach]

Ok folks, I am in KC now, and the next couple of weeks. I will take this time to read, but work starts tomorrow, long shifts. Luckily, not too too much has happened. I'll be able to post something then.

[Plum]

The VT claim at L-3 hurts Kieraen's case more than it helps. Meta defense is also troublesome. Specific meta defense (e.g., a player saying 'It's my custom to random vote with dice always, regardless of my alignment, as you can see from these handy links) is acceptable, in my mind. Vague 'I always look scummy, so you shouldn't attack me for looking scummy!', however, is useless. Thinking alud is normal, stupid WIFOM defenses are always a red flag, but by now it's a signal we may have gone off the deep end here, if you get my drift.

Re: Lowell forgetting his role: I don't like it much myself, but, especially with a more intriguing case (Kieraen) and a strong gut suspect who hasn't contributed too much (RBT) and knowing that sometimes powerroles make stupid mistakes (Atronach remembers the game where someone claimed his limited JOAT role gave him a one-shot Tracker option which, the next day, he told us was a mistake on his part and actually a

Watcher

power . . . meh. I'll reserve judgment for a day.

[Caboose]

The VT claim at L-3 hurts Kieraen's case more than it helps.

What the
Godfather possibility slightly increased.

Meta defense is also troublesome.

This is true.

Vague 'I always look scummy, so you shouldn't attack me for looking scummy!', however, is useless. Thinking alud is normal, stupid WIFOM defenses are always a red flag, but by now it's a signal we may have gone off the deep end here, if you get my drift.

This is also true.

Benmage doesn't deserve my vote anymore. I think he's put enough independent input for the

Unvote

.

RBT jump onto the Kieraen wagon troubles me.
RBT, why exactly did you vote Kieraen, again. I know you said it wasn't OMGUS, but if it isn't OMGUS, what is it?
And don't just say "what Plum said," either.