Open 118 - Follow The Cop ... Or Not (Game Over) before 748

[GIEFF]

I guess I'm more of a follower than a leader. I have a hard time making up cases on my own, but when somebody else makes a case, I can usually determine if I agree or disagree.

But you DIDN'T agree with the case. You said it was Shin's behavior AFTER Empking made his case that changed your mind.

Truth is, she wasn't scummy to me when empking first made his case on her, but her actions since then have changed my opinions of her.

She didn't respond to Empking's case until after she was prodded to it. Also, Shin didn't answer Tuber's question from the 26th until the 9th. Those are the main reasons I'd feel comfortable with hammering Shin, depending on her claim. The RVS contradictions just make me more willing to do so.

So which is it? Did you see Empking's case and think it was a good one, accurately describing Shin's early game? Or did you make up your own mind based on Shin's later behavior (i.e. responding to questions slowly)?

[Empking]

ZEE: A second vote isn't a bandwagon.

My definition of a bandwagon is someone voting for someone for no reason, basically because one other person has voted for them.

Zeenon, Emp later made a case on Shin. Did you not see that?

Yes, but normally people make their case before, not after they vote.
Also, the case he has on him is not really that great, just stating things that players, as well as I, already feel.
Right now Shinnen_no_Me is highly suspicious, but the way that Empking attacks him warrants my vote once again.

Vote: Empking

.

No, you started feeling them after I made my case.

[DraketheFake]

I read up yesterday before I agreed to replace, but haven't found a moment to sit down and write everything up. I should get some time this afternoon.

Unvote

, in case I need to do that.

[ac1983fan]

I guess I'm more of a follower than a leader. I have a hard time making up cases on my own, but when somebody else makes a case, I can usually determine if I agree or disagree.

But you DIDN'T agree with the case. You said it was Shin's behavior AFTER Empking made his case that changed your mind.

Truth is, she wasn't scummy to me when empking first made his case on her, but her actions since then have changed my opinions of her.

She didn't respond to Empking's case until after she was prodded to it. Also, Shin didn't answer Tuber's question from the 26th until the 9th. Those are the main reasons I'd feel comfortable with hammering Shin, depending on her claim. The RVS contradictions just make me more willing to do so.

So which is it? Did you see Empking's case and think it was a good one, accurately describing Shin's early game? Or did you make up your own mind based on Shin's later behavior (i.e. responding to questions slowly)?

I don't believe either of my posts imply the first one. Just because a case against you is horrible doesn't mean you shouldn't defend yourself against it. So it was the second one, I made up my own mind later on. I didn't say I'm solely a follower, but I'm definitely closer to a follower than a leader.

[Kmd4390]

I, like Shin, believe that for a 3-player bandwagon, it is more likely than not that at least one of the three is mafia. Just from a statistical standpoint, the probability that three randomly-chosen players are all town is 8/11*7/10*6/9 = 34%. So the probability that three rnadom players contain 1 or more scum is 1 - 34% =

66%

. And this number is completely ignoring things like mafia liking to bandwagon, and early bandwagons more likely to be on townies than on mafia, so I think the true chance that at least one of the three on the early wagon was mafia is more like 70 or 75%.

Tell me why it's more likely that there is scum in the 3 players who random voted me than any other group of 3 players. (I've lost this post twice already. )

Empking, if yyou find it fishy that people unvote because we aren't in the random vote stage, why did you ignore it when Magus did it? It looks like kmd did the same thing, but Magus actually said the unvote was because "things were getting serious," and I don't have to make assumptions about intent.

I unvoted because I was satisfied with Shin's response, not because the RVS was over. I don't do that. I unvote a random vote when there is a better reason to vote.

The fact that Empking's case was

hidden

in a quote pyramid (which I didn't take the time to read completely, either) makes me more suspicious of Empking than of Shin.

Really? Hidden? It was posted right there. Why is it any harder to read than any other post?

I guess I'm more of a follower than a leader. I have a hard time making up cases on my own, but when somebody else makes a case, I can usually determine if I agree or disagree.

Hypothetical scenario.

5 players. 1 scum. 2 players all out attack each other. You and 2 others are "followers". You lynch one of the 2 attacking each other. The other is NK'd. You are left with 2 players who won't do anything until you make a move. Do you see why being a "follower" hurts there?

[ac1983fan]

Hypothetical scenario.

5 players. 1 scum. 2 players all out attack each other. You and 2 others are "followers". You lynch one of the 2 attacking each other. The other is NK'd. You are left with 2 players who won't do anything until you make a move. Do you see why being a "follower" hurts there?

In that scenario, I would reread the game and vote for the scummiest person. I'm not normally going to be the guy you see leading the case on somebody, I'll normally be the guy that says "oh, I was thinking the same thing about XXX", occasionally with my own reasoning. Again, notice that I said "I'm more of a follower than a leader", not "I'm a follower not a leader".

[GIEFF]

Tell me why it's more likely that there is scum in the 3 players who random voted me than any other group of 3 players. (I've lost this post twice already. Laughing )

It's not much more likely, and even if it wasn't more likely than for a group of 3 random players, it would still be a 2/3 chance there is mafia, so it isn't a relevant point. I think it is slightly more likely because scum like to bandwagon, and early wagons are more likely to be on townies than on scum. Even if you disagree, the point stands that it is twice as likely that a scum was on the wagon than not.

And even that point isn't highly relevant; Tuber still hasn't explain it is scummy for Shin to believe that there could be scum on your wagon.

The fact that Empking's case was hidden in a quote pyramid (which I didn't take the time to read completely, either) makes me more suspicious of Empking than of Shin.

Really? Hidden? It was posted right there. Why is it any harder to read than any other post?

You were reading each additional post one at a time. I had to read it all at once, and as most of it was just distracting randomness, I didn't read the whole thing. I missed it on my first read-through, which is why I believe Shin when she says she missed it, too.


----


There are 5 days until the deadline. If nobody wants to unvote Shin and switch to another candidate (I recommend ac1983fan), then I think Shin should claim within 2 days; otherwise, we'll run out of time to see, digest, and respond to a claim.

[Slicey]

Being a follower is completely useless, ac1983fan. >_>

It's not much more likely, and even if it wasn't more likely than for a group of 3 random players, it would still be a 2/3 chance there is mafia, so it isn't a relevant point. I think it is slightly more likely because scum like to bandwagon, and early wagons are more likely to be on townies than on scum. Even if you disagree, the point stands that it is twice as likely that a scum was on the wagon than not.

That's pretty much saying that KMD is town, which is not necessarily true. >_> It could have been 3 townies "bandwagoning" a townie.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

The fact that Empking's case was

hidden

in a quote pyramid (which I didn't take the time to read completely, either) makes me more suspicious of Empking than of Shin.

Really? Hidden? It was posted right there. Why is it any harder to read than any other post?

Because it was in the middle of the quote pyramid, and I was not reading that due to the annoyness that carries with. Maybe for you, the one who was making the pyramid, was not annoying, but it was for me.

So, ifipostmycasewritinglikethiswouldyoureaditpossiblynot. See what I mean?

As I said before, I find Tuber's reasons to vote for me fair enough. But other than that, I can't find the bases in their reasons to vote me. SK's reasons are just totally baseless, like if he's just following the bandwagon. Zazier, who replaced IH, also hasn't a good reason to vote for me. In fact, he stated that it was a joke vote. Slicey has also tried to provide a good point, but he just voted for me for Emp's post and because the L-3 thing. Regarding Emp's reasons, I can't still find them. First, he voted with no other reason than his gut. Then, he made a "case", which, I repeat, it's not a case but a summary of my posts. Then, he just wait for my reaction and for everyone to hang on that post, which, btw, has no true accusation, question, or the like. Still, most of you find that a good reason. What I wonder is, why have no one noticed of SK's and Zazier's baseless votes? In fact, not only uo have ignored that, but also have eager to lynch me. I do find that scummy, you know.

Oh, regarding the post history, and such, and the L-2, I could have sworn it was L-3... One way or another, I learned that gathering votes on a single person without good reasons was scummy. And that was I was pointing out.

[ac1983fan]

Being a follower is completely useless, ac1983fan. >_>

Having twelve leaders who want to go in separate directions is worse. I can make my own opinion, but more often, I share the opinion of others. Explain how that is completely useless. I would think completely useless would be posting almost nothing, not asking questions, not answering questions, making contentless posts, etc.

[GIEFF]

That's pretty much saying that KMD is town, which is not necessarily true. >_> It could have been 3 townies "bandwagoning" a townie.

I am not saying that at all. I am saying that scum like to bandwagon more than town, and that early wagons are more likely to be on town than scum. This is why I think the mathematical 66% is more likely to be 70% or 75%. This is the second time you've tried to mischaracterize what I've said (the first time being you saying that all I've done is defend Shin). Stop it.

This is way too much discussion over a minor point, which was just an attempt to show that Shin's suspicion of at least one scum being on the wagon was a valid one, and an attempt to get Tuberkulos to explain why he found that suspicion scummy. Which I don't think he has done.

[Slicey]

That's pretty much saying that KMD is town, which is not necessarily true. >_> It could have been 3 townies "bandwagoning" a townie.

I am not saying that at all. I am saying that scum like to bandwagon more than town, and that early wagons are more likely to be on town than scum. This is why I think the mathematical 66% is more likely to be 70% or 75%. This is the second time you've tried to mischaracterize what I've said (the first time being you saying that all I've done is defend Shin). Stop it.

This is way too much discussion over a minor point, which was just an attempt to show that Shin's suspicion of at least one scum being on the wagon was a valid one, and an attempt to get Tuberkulos to explain why he found that suspicion scummy. Which I don't think he has done.

There's just likely a chance that those 3 people were bandwagoning scum instead of town. And bandwagoning at the beginning of the game is not scummy IMHO, because its still random voting. It's not pressure votes or anything: KMD wasn't gonna claim because of three random votes against him or anything like that. I mean, sure they may be scum, but they're not scum because they're bandwagoning a player during the random voting stage. I also apologize for saying that all you've done this game is defend Shin; you've mostly done that, but you have also discussed your suspicions with ac1983fan, which I do agree with.

And Shin, I've said it many times, I'm voting for you because of this whole bandwagoning thing, the fact that you freaked out about L-3 and then lied about the whole thing and because your defense has been pretty bad. SK voted for you because you said he was to stay in the RVS, which is not true, according to him. Zazier is a lurker, and will probably be replaced. I played a game with her, and she posted no more than 10 times the entire game, and most of them were useless.

ac983fan - So you're basically saying "I have suspicions on people, but I want to make sure people agree with me first before I share them." And then you just say "I agree with so and so." That is contentless. >_>

[ac1983fan]

ac983fan - So you're basically saying "I have suspicions on people, but I want to make sure people agree with me first before I share them." And then you just say "I agree with so and so." That is contentless. >_>

When in the game have I said "I agree with x" as my reasons for voting? What I'm saying is that I am not the person who leads the lynch. I'm still posting content.

[Nameless]

On A Scale Of Zero To Vote, This Is A "Vote" Count

Shinnen_no_Me: 5 (ZazieR, Empking, Slicey, Tuberkulos, Shadow Knight)
ac1983fan: 1 (GIEFF)
DraketheFake: 1 (Kmd4390)
Empking: 1 (ZEEnon)
Not Voting: 3 (DraketheFake, ac1983fan, Shinnen_no_Me)

[Tuberkulos]

And even that point isn't highly relevant; Tuber still hasn't explain it is scummy for Shin to believe that there could be scum on your wagon.

To me it looks like he is trying be look townie. Especially since he is trying to label one of them as scum.

Let me elaborate that. I don't like that he is trying to draw attention to the wagon, calling it "more important stuff". Why is it more important than what was already being discussed? Also, as mentioned before, "I guess everything is random", yet IH gets a FoS for his "seemingly random vote".

Really believing in something isn't scummy. But I obviosly don't think that Shin believed that there was a sum on the wagon.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Eh? Believe what you want, in that moment I thought of that. Also, "I guess everything is random" was a guess at the moment I posted, it doesn't mean I will ignore everything later on.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Btw, since your first post, you have been on me. Isn't that called tunnelvision?

[Tuberkulos]

I've been watching all players, trying to get a read on them. Some are more easier to get a read on, others are harder. So don't worry, I haven't just looked at you.

So no, it's not called tunnelvision. It's called focusing. Got a problem with that?

[Kmd4390]

So, ifipostmycasewritinglikethiswouldyoureaditpossiblynot. See what I mean?

I'dreaditbecauseIreadeverythingasIknowitisprotowntodoso.

There are 5 days until the deadline. If nobody wants to unvote Shin and switch to another candidate (I recommend ac1983fan), then I think Shin should claim within 2 days; otherwise, we'll run out of time to see, digest, and respond to a claim.

ac is a better lynch than shin.

Unvote, Vote ac

[Empking]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

[Kmd4390]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

Depends on the specific "BS defense".

[Empking]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

Depends on the specific "BS defense".

Why is that?

[Kmd4390]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

Depends on the specific "BS defense".

Why is that?

If you mean a player defending another who they think is town and have logical reasons, and you call it BS because you disagree, then no. It's not scummy.

If you mean a player defending another player and it being completely screwed up and making no sense, then yeah. They are probably defending for reasons other than thinking the player is town which is scummy.

[Empking]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

Depends on the specific "BS defense".

Why is that?

If you mean a player defending another who they think is town and have logical reasons, and you call it BS because you disagree, then no. It's not scummy.

If you mean a player defending another player and it being completely screwed up and making no sense, then yeah. They are probably defending for reasons other than thinking the player is town which is scummy.

OK

Is "its perfectly OK to not read posts" a logical reason?

[Kmd4390]

KMD: Do you think making BS defences of other players is scummy?

Depends on the specific "BS defense".

Why is that?

If you mean a player defending another who they think is town and have logical reasons, and you call it BS because you disagree, then no. It's not scummy.

If you mean a player defending another player and it being completely screwed up and making no sense, then yeah. They are probably defending for reasons other than thinking the player is town which is scummy.

OK

Is "its perfectly OK to not read posts" a logical reason?

That specific sentence, no.

Did you see something in this game that implied that? If so, quote it.