Open 118 - Follow The Cop ... Or Not (Game Over) before 748

[Tuberkulos]

Oh, my bad. Anyway, the reasons weren't given just to answer

Kmd

GIEFF's posts, but for everyone to read and comment.

[Kmd4390]

Shin should respond first.

[GIEFF]

Agreed; I have something to say, but I want to hear Shin answer first.

[Empking]

I'd like Shin to post first.

[GIEFF]

I'd like Shin to post first.

This is a great point.

[ZazieR]

Sorry for being silent so far. Will post my thoughts tomorrow.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, here's my so-waited answer:

Here's my reasons for voting Shin:

We're in a random voting stage, so I'm guessing that all votes and FoS'es are joke.

Geez, calm down Mr. Serious. For me, the RVS ends when somebody start with a good argument. So far I've seen none of that. Just random/pressure votes.

Well, first, I agree with you regarding that townies want the RVS to end as soon as possible to have more time for serious discussion. However, the RVS is important, as it lets us start with the game properly, and rushing it when we have not yet something to start with is not good, imo.

Let's look at these posts. He says (guesses) that all votes and FoS'es are random in the RVS and that Emp shouldn't take the votes/FoS'es seriously and that the RVS ends when someone makes a good argument. If everything is random and shouldn't be taken seriously, then how are we going to suddenly come up with a good argument for something? Maybe if someone is oppertunistic maybe, that's a possebility. But I don't understand why he have anything against Empking's reaction. He says that RVS will give us something good start with. How is that possible if everything should be counted as random?

I was referring that so far at that point of the game the votes and FoS were joke. It's obvious that not everything in the rvs is joke, otherwise the game wouldn't start never. Yes, maybe I wasn't clear enough in my first sentence, but I was referring to the game as it was at that point.

I also don't like his reaction to Kmd being at L-3. Since when is that something to get all jumpy about? To me it looks like he is trying be look townie. Especially since he is trying to label one of them as scum.

Your three votes might seem random, but there's also a probability that mafia (not all of them, though), it's behind of one of those votes.

Craplogic. These people could just aswell be townie.

Craplogic. These people could just as well be mafia. With this I just wanted to say that I stated an opinion regarding his L-3. Yeah, I might have overreacted, but still, it was just an opinion, never a certain fact. So, just because we don't use the same methods, or just because I use a different logic I'm scummy? That's one sure craplogic you have there.

Seriously? Are we really going to have and discuss random votes and bandwagons based entirely on random votes in *2* games I'm in?

So, Shadow Knight, what do you suggest then? You think that we should then just keep random voting until somebody screams "I'm mafia!"?

Wait a sec. When Empking tried to discuss about a FoS (that was random according to Shin) Shin bashed on him for it. Contradicts to what he have expressed in post 30 and 32

The rvs, for me, need to be at least somewhat long (around 3 pages or so), because chances are that the reactions of people towards the random votes wouldn't give us enough info to start a proper discussion (that's what I, at least, believe).

Shin told SK that we should discuss random votes in post 49. That kind of signifies that the reactions of people towards the random votes is quite sufficient, which contradicts what he have said earlier.

At this point of the game, we were already starting a discussion. It's not the same as it was when Emp tried to discuss about a FoS earlier. Also, I did not say that we should discuss random votes. If you read well, I never said that. I was referring to the fact that we were already in a discussion, and SK wanted to return to the rvs. Don't put words in other people's mouths. It's not nice.

I believe the most likely is the second option (an early bandwagon pushed by mafia). However, I do not think the point of the bandwagon is a quick lynch, but to draw attention to some place by pressuring one player.

Again, trying to say that one of them might be scum, and that is more likely than 3 townies. Why is that? It's such a brainfart really.

Why? Just because you say so? How can you be so sure that mafia was not using that to deflect attention to another person? Just because you didn't think of that doesn't mean it can't be possible. I just stated my opinion. I never accused anyone, I just said that it was weird, and that I didn't like the L-3.

Well, I hope I have answered all questions. If there are still any remaining, please tell me.

[Tuberkulos]

Craplogic.

These people could just as well be mafia.

Exactly my point. Yet you choose to label one of them as scum instead of all of them of town or all of them as mafia.

At this point of the game, we were already starting a discussion. It's not the same as it was when Emp tried to discuss about a FoS earlier.

Also, I did not say that we should discuss random votes.

If you read well, I never said that. I was referring to the fact that we were already in a discussion, and SK wanted to return to the rvs. Don't put words in other people's mouths. It's not nice.

Then tell, what were you trying to say with this post?

Seriously? Are we really going to have and discuss random votes and bandwagons based entirely on random votes in *2* games I'm in?

So, Shadow Knight, what do you suggest then? You think that we should then just keep random voting until somebody screams "I'm mafia!"?

You didn't spell it out, but it sure looks like you that you think we should discuss random votes. I'm not putting words into your mouth, it's how I interpret your post. But sure, we can play the "don't put words in other people's mouths"-game.

and SK wanted to return to the rvs.

Don't put words in other people's mouths. It's not nice.

I believe the most likely is the second option (an early bandwagon pushed by mafia). However, I do not think the point of the bandwagon is a quick lynch, but to draw attention to some place by pressuring one player.

Again, trying to say that one of them might be scum, and that is more likely than 3 townies. Why is that? It's such a brainfart really.

Why? Just because you say so?

How can you be so sure that mafia was not using that to deflect attention to another person? Just because you didn't think of that doesn't mean it can't be possible. I just stated my opinion. I never accused anyone, I just said that it was weird, and that I didn't like the L-3.

Simple math. However, you probably used your gut. But your gut is usually triggered by something. And I wonder why your gut would tell you that one of the three voting Kmd might be scum (more likely then everyone being town) just because he was at L-3.

[GIEFF]

Tuber's attack on Shin strikes me as post-facto justification for a vote for different reasons.

Exactly my point. Yet you choose to label one of them as scum instead of all of them of town or all of them as mafia.

This is not what happened. I will quote:

Your three votes might seem random, but there's also a probability that mafia (not all of them, though), it's behind of one of those votes.

Craplogic. These people could just aswell be townie.

Shin said there is a CHANCE that mafia is on the wagon. You are the one trying to ascribe certainty to Shin's position (i.e. putting words in Shin's mouth).

When I asked you why you voted Shin, you responded:

I voted him to put some pressure on him for some answers (both of the times). Some people tend to talk more if they have votes on 'em. Shin seems to be one of these people. Not scummy per se, but it doesn't look too good. I unvoted the first time because I got answers. This time however, I'll leave the vote on him until he have given a respons to my upcoming post. He is scummy.

Nothing in here about freaking out over L-3, using craplogic, or being inconsistent about the purpose and usefulness of the random voting stage. These things only came later.

And I see no reason to be certain that this behavior is more likely to come from new/confused scum than from new/confused townie. There is a possible scum explanation, and a possible townie explanation; you chose to focus on the possible scum explanation.


Your behavior is better than Empking's, though - at least you are trying to explain yourself. Empking is sitting back, making quote pyramids, and hypocritically claiming that Shin's posts are "long but don't really say much" or are "wastes of a post"; this case coming in the middle of a giant pyramid that was very long, didn't really say much, and was a waste of

many

posts.

[Tuberkulos]

This time however, I'll leave the vote on him until he have given a respons to my

upcoming post

. He is scummy.

Post 197 was that "upcoming post" that I was talking about. So I had in advance already told why my vote would be left on him, at the time I was to lazy to start typing that case.

Shin said there is a CHANCE that mafia is on the wagon. You are the one trying to ascribe certainty to Shin's position (i.e. putting words in Shin's mouth).

I see your point. At that moment, I did actually put words in Shin's mouth. But later he said:

I believe the most likely is the second option (an early bandwagon pushed by mafia). However, I do not think the point of the bandwagon is a quick lynch, but to draw attention to some place by pressuring one player.

So you are right, he doesn't say that there

is

a mafia behind one of those votes (it was never my intention to make it look like Shin said this) but he does say that he believes that it's more likely that that is the case rather than three townies. Why?

Nothing in here about freaking out over L-3, using craplogic, or being inconsistent about the purpose and usefulness of the random voting stage. These things only came later.

True, but I had already noticed that and these were also reasons behind my vote even though I had not stated them yet.

[Shadow Knight]

SK wanted to return to the rvs

Uh, where the hell did I say I wanted to go BACK to rvs? Because I generally *hate* rvs. Sorry dude, you fail.

unvote, vote Shin

[GIEFF]

Post 197 was that "upcoming post" that I was talking about. So I had in advance already told why my vote would be left on him, at the time I was to lazy to start typing that case.

OK, fair enough.


I, like Shin, believe that for a 3-player bandwagon, it is more likely than not that at least one of the three is mafia. Just from a statistical standpoint, the probability that three randomly-chosen players are all town is 8/11*7/10*6/9 = 34%. So the probability that three rnadom players contain 1 or more scum is 1 - 34% =

66%

. And this number is completely ignoring things like mafia liking to bandwagon, and early bandwagons more likely to be on townies than on mafia, so I think the true chance that at least one of the three on the early wagon was mafia is more like 70 or 75%.



And even if I didn't believe it to be true, I wouldn't think that another person believing it is scummy. Why is it scummy?



I see why freaking out about L-3 could be seen as scummy; do you see how it could be from a pro-town perspective? Shin said that in a past game, he was attacked for putting someone at L-3. Shin appears to be new. Do you think the Shin-as-scum theory fits his inconsistency better than the Shin-as-new-town-who-is-using-scumtells-from-past-games theory? Did you consider both theories? Do you think Shin was lying about his past game?

-----

Seriously? Are we really going to have and discuss random votes and bandwagons based entirely on random votes in *2* games I'm in?

So, Shadow Knight, what do you suggest then? You think that we should then just keep random voting until somebody screams "I'm mafia!"?

SK, if you have an issue with Magus thinking you would prefer to remain in the random-vote stage, why didn't you question Magus when he first did it, back on Page 2? You posted a clarification, but it appears Magus either didn't read it, didn't understand it, forgot about it, or chose to ignore it. I take it from your vote that you assume he ignored it, and it deliberately misrepresenting your position?

Or do you have other reasons for voting him?

Shin is now at L-1.

If someone else wants to vote him, please let it be known with an HOS so that Shin has time to claim before getting hammered.

[Slicey]

I'm not sure how you did that math, but I can't see how that number can be accurate. >_>

[GIEFF]

It's accurate. If you don't believe the math, go get 11 jelly beans: 8 green, and 3 red. Pick out three randomly. If you do it 30 times, you should get all green jellybeans close to 10 times out of the 30 total.

And it's not highly relevant, as even if the math is wrong, I don't see how saying "there is likely at least one mafia on this wagon" is scummy.

[Nameless]

You Say Tomato, I Say It's Time For A Vote Count

Shinnen_no_Me: 5 (ZazieR, Empking, Slicey, Tuberkulos, Shadow Knight)
BlakAdder: 1 (Kmd4390)
Empking: 1 (GIEFF)
Not Voting: 4 (BlakAdder, ac1983fan, Shinnen_no_Me, ZEEnon)

(Also, I am now seeking a replacement for BlakAdder.)

[GIEFF]

The last game I was in where BlakAdder lurked hardcore until a day-1 replacement, he was scum.

Has anybody seen him do this as town?

[Tuberkulos]

I see why freaking out about L-3 could be seen as scummy; do you see how it could be from a pro-town perspective? Shin said that in a past game, he was attacked for putting someone at L-3. Shin appears to be new. Do you think the Shin-as-scum theory fits his inconsistency better than the Shin-as-new-town-who-is-using-scumtells-from-past-games theory? Did you consider both theories? Do you think Shin was lying about his past game?

I don't see Shin's reaction as very pro-town, no. At the time, I didn't think that Shin lied. But since you asked if I did, I checked is post history and from what I found he got called out for putting someone at L-2 (not L-3). I've considered both theories and I believe that he is scum. It's my initial feeling.

[ac1983fan]

I'm ready to hammer, but I'll give Shin her say.
Truth is, she wasn't scummy to me when empking first made his case on her, but her actions since then have changed my opinions of her.

[Tuberkulos]

I'm ready to hammer, but I'll give Shin her say.
Truth is, she wasn't scummy to me when empking first made his case on her, but her actions since then have changed my opinions of her.

I really hope that you are going to post more content and concrete reasons for why you find her scummy before you hammer.

[Tuberkulos]

I'm not sure how you did that math, but I can't see how that number can be accurate. >_>

His numbers are correct.

[Shadow Knight]

@ tuber- when he dropped it, I figured that he understood my clarification. For him to drop it and suddenly come back later saying it was *me* that wanted to go back to rvs is a blatant misrepresentation. The case against him had me seriously considering him, but his response was the trigger to me voting him.

[Tuberkulos]

@ tuber- when he dropped it, I figured that he understood my clarification. For him to drop it and suddenly come back later saying it was *me* that wanted to go back to rvs is a blatant misrepresentation.

The case against him had me seriously considering him,

but his response was the trigger to me voting him.

Which case are you refering too?

I would like to hear more from at least Empking and Zaizer before a possible lynch on Shin.

[Slicey]

I see why freaking out about L-3 could be seen as scummy; do you see how it could be from a pro-town perspective? Shin said that in a past game, he was attacked for putting someone at L-3. Shin appears to be new. Do you think the Shin-as-scum theory fits his inconsistency better than the Shin-as-new-town-who-is-using-scumtells-from-past-games theory? Did you consider both theories? Do you think Shin was lying about his past game?

I don't see Shin's reaction as very pro-town, no. At the time, I didn't think that Shin lied. But since you asked if I did, I checked is post history and from what I found he got called out for putting someone at L-2 (not L-3). I've considered both theories and I believe that he is scum. It's my initial feeling.

Why thank you. Now I know my vote is for scum.

[GIEFF]

No, you don't.

[Empking]

Shin's reaction ddn't seem pro-town to me.