Newbie 732 - Abandoned

[Furpants_Tom]

It's a date.

Vote Honko

What say you, lurkfiend?

[roflcopter]

i don't have the time to give this game the attention it really deserves, which is unfortunate. hopefully during the weekend. if not, i'll request replacement so you guys can have the caliber of ic you deserve.

posts 251 and 252 really catch my attention. furpants has basically no real reason at all to dislike the infinis votes, except for the fact that people were

not

defending him. tom, who exactly do you expect to defend infinis? if everyone legitimately finds him scummy, maybe the simplest explanation is because he's scum. the lack of anyone else defending him probably has something to do with him being caught, not whatever cockeyed conspiracy reason you're touting. but i'm really impressed with how you managed to totally derail the wagon on him without actually providing any reason.

as for the wagon on me, well lets see - blizzire i still haven't been able to figure out

what

the guy really thinks because he's barely posted anything. post 271 is especially juicy, with all that conditional language leaving him all sorts of outs for when i inevitably don't flip mafia. and he's followed with the one two punch of tom and infinis. i find it hard to believe that two scum would so blatantly bandwagon the same person, but it does feel like the two of them are doing whatever they can to keep pressure off of infinis right now.

[roflcopter]

sorry if that post was a little bit rambly, i had two very strong long island iced teas not long before i got home tonight

[Furpants_Tom]

Nah, not too bad; all things considered. Plus, it's nice to see you posting again.

Yeah, maybe people aren't voting for Infinis because they believe every word I say. Hey, must be why I almost got lynched yesterday. Oh wait, that doesn't make any sense.

If people aren't lining up to lynch Infinis, it must be because they get the same bad gut feeling about it that I do, after watching that first week of posts where absolutely everything and everyone was pointing to his imminent demise. I wouldn't have the ability to derail a wagon of any sort, if it wasn't running on pretty shaky tracks to begin with, to overextend a metaphor.

As for the wagon on you - it's not really a wagon, per se. Blizzire is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, but he's given some reasoning as to why his vote is where it is. I switched to you because I think you're an active drag on the town's decision-making process; and Infinis, bless him, is just trying to save his own skin. That could make him either town or scum, I don't think we have any way of knowing. But his scrambling for survival doesn't implicate me - I've already said what I think of his play, and had today gone differently, I would have been happy to see him swing.

Anyway, we're a couple of votes short of throwing Honko to the dogs - where is he?

[Erratus Apathos]

Vote Count

roflcopter: (2) blizzire, Infinis
Honko: (2) orangepenguin, Furpants_Tom
Infinis: (1) roflcopter

Not voting: Honko, Mind of Descartes

Four votes to lynch. Deadline: March 9

Honko is being replaced.

[Furpants_Tom]

Well, I guess that answers my question.

Shall we move the laser of truth over to our new friend?

Unvote
Vote Mind of Descartes

[Erratus Apathos]

Kieraen replaces Honko.

[Kieraen]

Doing a reread, I'll be back to comment more when I have something-

[Infinis]

Unvote. Vote Mind of Descartes

agreed

[Kieraen]

Okay Im coming into the game with fresh eyes. I have had one full reread. No evidence in this post just my gut feelings from posts. This game seems to need a boost andf qui ck posting so I will be direct. I will start to formulate my arguments later.

The town is being guided by a very amiable TOM. He is creating and expressing desires but not with a stick, more like a soft lily that bends and twists in the wind. What I mean is when disagreed upon, he responds with 'okay, Im totaly cool with that, you vote for me dude, but what do you think of this...."

I find his day one play curious.

For a start, talking so extenssively on who may or may not be cop. The merits of which i find shaky at best. I also find claiming Vanilla day one shaky.

As townie you may be lynched, or night killed, and thats crap. But when you claim vanilla you are increasing the danger of death for the real cop or doctor. Thats assuming your claim is true.

I find it shakry that you try to encourage everyone to state their suspects, or at least the manner in which you do so. Having all that information makes mafia far more likely to lynch a common townie suspect, and makes it far easier for thm to support the more trusted townies.


Alot of these have been picked up by my predecessor HONKO and by ROFL. Between the arguments of ROFL and TOM I will state now that on first read I find ROFL more convincing.
The discussion between ROFL and TOM don't feel like bussing to me. Primarily because the points ROFL picked out I agree with.

I think (at the minute as I do need more detailed analysis). That INFINIS made an incorrect decision in not hammering. As townie you had one decision. Vote who you find scummiest.

I find it far more likely that an OP/TOM scum combination is hear now, or an INFIDIS/TOM scum team.


Of course I will need to look a little mkore at lurkers, as just the more obvious posters are apparent.
-------------------------------

Okay back to rereadimg, thinking and evidence.

[Furpants_Tom]

Welcome, dude.

Hopefully another analyst? Someone who's bothered to read the backthread at least; and with about 24 hours to go for this day, that's encouraging.

Most of the stuff you've brought up is pretty reasonable. I tend to play a facilitator role, trying to conjure up consensus between the people I trust. Where things start to bog and go slow, as they have with this game, I'll try just about anything to get people interacting again, because the information flow is just about all we have.

And that's what happened yesterday. I did a great job yesterday of sticking my head in the noose, but I think the results were worth it. I've been referring back to yesterday's results as we've played through today, and I suspect a couple of other people have as well. The only reliable info I have is my role; and I'm not going to start feeding the town inaccurate information. I explained why I didn't make a fake copclaim previously, but I think my reasoning stands up.

For the record, too, I didn't discuss the cop role extensively. I mentioned it in one post, and rofl leapt on it to accuse me of being mafia, eating babies and leaving the toilet lid up. Seriously, it wasn't a big deal until he made it one. In the meantime, we'd already had a roleclaim for cop - so it gave the scum exactly no guidance whatsoever.

Rofl and I aren't bussing - I know this because I'm not scum. But we has consistently targeted me since day 1. He redirects conversations that might have useful outcomes, and shuts them down with personal attacks on individuals. I'm glad you've taken the time to read back, but take a more careful look - there's not a lot of evidence, and a whole lot of OMGUS. And every single time he pops up with a real post (as opposed to the 90% of time that he's lurking) it's just when conversation is getting started in a direction he doesn't like, or to speed along a growing bandwagon.

Infinis made a dumb move - a series of dumb moves, really. But today's early play pretty much convinced me that he's innocent; and a big part of that was rofl popping up at a convenient time to try and push him over the cliff just after Orange and I had bagged him out for it.

And I don't think a Tom/Infinis scum team is very likely. Mainly because if that's what we've done, we've basically lost. Here's why:
If Infinis gets lynched, and is scum, I'm dead. Game over.
If I get lynched, and I'm scum, then Infinis is dead. Game over.
If I get rofl lynched, and he's innocent, then I'm dead. Then Infinis is dead. Game over.

Infinis has been spending the second half of today hiding in my shadow, because he knows I'm his only chance at survival. That's not a scum move, that's noob town all over. He's not even attempting to convince anyone else; he's hoping I'll do it for him. At the very least, decent mafia would be trying to distance themselves from the real mafia and create some false links to town players. It's not happening, so I don't buy the theory.

I wish we knew more about MoD, because right now, I'm trying to figure out if you or he are scumbuddies with rofl. However, you siding openly with rofl while he goes quiet makes it a little more likely you're town. Maybe. WIFOM alert, I know. But it's all we've got to go on right now.

Keep posting, guys, we're on a timer!

MoD, please report to the front counter! Could we get a third vote there to ratchet up the pressure?

[Furpants_Tom]

Oh yeah, just remembered - Honko/Kieran's probably not scum, because he saw Tucking Fypo's hidden signal from yesterday. Anyway, let's see what MoD thinks.

[Furpants_Tom]

Hey Mod, what time does this day end on March 9th? And what timezone are you in?

[Erratus Apathos]

Vote Count

Mind of Descartes: (2) Furpants_Tom, Infinis
roflcopter: (1) blizzire
Kieraen: (1) orangepenguin
Infinis: (1) roflcopter

Not voting: Kieraen, Mind of Descartes

Four votes to lynch. Deadline: March 9

Mind of Descartes has been prodded.

Hey Mod, what time does this day end on March 9th? And what timezone are you in?

2:06 AM CDT.

[Furpants_Tom]

If I've got my conversions right, that's 6pm my time; and about 18.5 hours away. I'm prepared to lynch MoD if he doesn't come back, but I'd much rather he did speak up, so we could lynch rofl instead.

I think we still have 4 realistic lynch options today, sadly.

Mind of Descartes (for going AFK)
roflcopter (conversation derailing)
Infinis (yesterday's scummy play)
Furpants_Tom (Just too helpful to live)

I'd be prepared to lynch the following:

Mind of Descartes (I made the threat, I have to follow it through or I lose all credibility. Plus, he's not a bad bet, by my elimination theory)
roflcopter (I'm pretty sold on his guilt for reasons stated).

Tell us which of those four you'd be prepared to lynch - if there is at least one person with 4 or more votes, at least we'll know what to do before deadline.

[Kieraen]

Tom's 23rd post

Tucking Fypo wrote:
Alright, I want to spice things up a bit. I am the cop.

I demand protection tonight. At this point I am either going to investigate OrangePenguin or Infinis.


That's some spicy enchillada, right there. Ballsy, considering there's no guarantee that there's even a doctor in the house - but then, the scum don't know either, and if there is one, you're probably the safest person in town once the sun goes down.

If you're actually the cop, you have a 50/50 shot of just having signed your death warrant. It's probably worth the mafia's while taking a shot at you just to find out if there is a doctor - or wipe out the only other town role. You'll be more credible tomorrow; but it's not the way I would have played it - because we need the cop to survive N1.

If you're only a townie, you're protecting the cop. Good work! And the doctor, if they exist, should still protect you. But you're risking derailing the whole townie game by keeping up the pretence and declaring scum innocent or a townie guilty tomorrow. And if you get it demonstrably wrong, you'll further screw up the plans by wasting a lynch the next night. If you are a regular townie, please, please, please let us know first thing tomorrow; or you could really do us some damage.

If you're scum, then there's a 50/50 chance that there's now a cop about to investigate you. Bad news. But that's balanced by the possibility that you can outtalk them tomorrow; and survive to day 3. If there's no alternate cop, you're sitting pretty; and there's every chance you can exert undue influence from here on out. And tie up the doctor. We'll need to keep watching you very carefully.

Tom's 43rd post

Seriously, Fypo isn't the cop. If the real cop (assuming there is one) wants to investigate anyone, I'd say the survivor out of me or Actarus would be a good bet, as suggested by my learned colleague

So thats twice on day one.

Okay not excessive, but Timing is important. What benefit is their to townieTOM stating that FYPO ain't cop end of day one? This just confuses mafia and doc.
With mafia and doc going for same person in the night (likely FYPO's intent) we can see what we have, more info=pro town.


Also this stuck out to me early on.
Tom's 23rd post

Probably. I just don't think there's anything we're likely to be able to reliably use. And chances are we will lynch the wrong person - I'd rather we acknowledge that today instead of getting the idea we can solve the puzzle right off the bat. That way leads to instalynching

their

hammerer tomorrow for no good reason

This is exonnerating the hammerer. A mislynch on day one DOES have reasons which can be traced back to mafia.

And I find this bolded word curious. It implies that we the town, are different to you.

Tom's 64th post

It's a date.

Vote Honko

What say you, lurkfiend?

This was a vote after pressure from OP I believe. But by this point you had established that you had believed my predeccessor to be town, a statement you repeated after my first posts.

It feels like your finding a home for your vote in a non-agressive mannaer.

TOM I don't know if your tonwie or not. I don't like some of your play:
1 Claiming vanilla townie seems set up and anti dramataic to the point where it has more believabilit to it.
2 Also asking for everyones suspects and tusted townies.
3 Speculating on night activities.
4. Moving your vote from one player to the next with little justification/argument from the other player.

However I haven't got enough yet on you, and I don't want to tunnel. So I'm gonna have a look at OP.

[Kieraen]

Mod can you fix my above quotes?

[Erratus Apathos]

Fixed.

[Kieraen]

For now

Vote: Furpants TOM

Til someone scummier comes up.

I have read Infinis and OP, nothing is striking me, though I'm not sure what to make of INFINIS lack of a vote when the votes where tied 4 to4, and OP's moved vote.

I haven't seen anything excessively scummy in ACTARUS play, however I havent read him yet. I'm reading ROFL now.

I'll report back later.

[Furpants_Tom]

So thats twice on day one.

Okay not excessive, but Timing is important. What benefit is their to townieTOM stating that FYPO ain't cop end of day one? This just confuses mafia and doc.
With mafia and doc going for same person in the night (likely FYPO's intent) we can see what we have, more info=pro town.

Dude, anyone who was talking was discussing Fypo's claim. That's not extraordinary. What's weird is that you think we wouldn't be discussing the only serious roleclaim at that point. And the mafia did go for Fypo, which means there's only one of the two power-roles - cop or doc. If there were both, he would have been roleblocked instead, and still alive. We have plenty of info - but it would have been stupid to make plans based on Fypo's obvious fakeclaim; because no sensible mafia would be.

This is exonnerating the hammerer. A mislynch on day one DOES have reasons which can be traced back to mafia.

And I find this bolded word curious. It implies that we the town, are different to you.

No, this isn't exonerating the hammerer. I exonerate the hammerer later on. Because you'd have to be a moron scum to hammer on Day 1. However, you're absolutely right - the mislynch can be traced back to mafia. My point was that jumping on the hammerer day 2 would be absolutely the stupidest thing we could do. I think I was right, and I'm glad we avoided that trap.

Incidentally, the bolded word is grammatically correct. It is not the town's hammerer, it is the lynched individual's hammerer. The lynched individual is a they in that sentence, even if it had been me. You're just looking for mud, now.

It's a date.

Vote Honko

What say you, lurkfiend?

Yeah, Tommie is right out. Also Tommy. Thomas, less aggravating, but still not my name.

This was a vote after pressure from OP I believe. But by this point you had established that you had believed my predeccessor to be town, a statement you repeated after my first posts.

It feels like your finding a home for your vote in a non-agressive mannaer.

I did this on day 1 as well. People weren't (and aren't) talking, so I threatened them with mini-bandwagons. Like I said, I'll do just about anything to get people interacting, and Honko had gone dead in the water. You can read that as scummy if you like, but a better interpretation would be slightly desperate town.

TOM I don't know if your tonwie or not. I don't like some of your play:
1 Claiming vanilla townie seems set up and anti dramataic to the point where it has more believabilit to it.
2 Also asking for everyones suspects and tusted townies.
3 Speculating on night activities.
4. Moving your vote from one player to the next with little justification/argument from the other player.

This is all fair; but it goes right back to the original argument I was having with rofl. If nobody gives out any information, the town loses.
Yes, it'd be great if we could all hide our roles from the mafia forever, and who we suspect, and never make public plans for night-time. But if we do that, then the mafia wins by default.

The mafia WILL ALWAYS know more than us. So every piece of information we share - not just know - is infinitessimally more valuable to us than to them. This is why I can make posts 100X faster than everyone else - you're all sitting there wondering what to tell and what to keep secret. I believe that if I start keeping secrets from the town, I'm only hurting myself in the long run, so I just write down what I'm thinking.

It gets me into trouble, just like this, but seriously, how boring is this game when nobody posts anything?

[Kieraen]

I agree with thi part of your game, getting more information for the town is totaly positive and there were plenty of negative players in this game. I respect your posting.

Th grammer issue, I can see now. You meant

their

(the lynched) final hammerer.

I have a problem however when you voted for people and moved on to others.

To be honest I'm not sure what to make of you TOM. Of course you have posted more than others so there will be more to look at, however I'm not sure their is enough for the quantity of posts you hae made to point to you as obviousscum.

Your the first, and easiest suspect for me to see, but rest assured I will do my upmost to look at others. For the moment, a lynch is priority. Even a mislynch has merits. You are probably (sorry to say this dude) the best player for us to fuck up our lynch against, as you claim vanilla (therfore no power role mess up), you have some scummy play, and you have more interaction than any other players. I maintain my vote on you , due to thedanger on a no lynch, but will review others play.

[Kieraen]

tom wrote:
Yep; I wouldn't be voting for them tomorrow, even if it was you. Hammering on N1 is dumb scum play; so I wouldn't be voting for them unless they revealed themselves as particularly dumb scum.

if you're town thats just a stupid thing to say. if you're scum, it makes sense, as you'll either be making a friend of whatever townie drops the hammer or giving the blanket pass to your scumpartner.

QFT

Also: Hiding behind rationality? Say whut? Because irrationality would be a much better townie tactic, clearly.

Yes and No. If someone started posting long rants and gibberish, what would you think? Scum or crazy town?

A rational, logical poster who analyzes everything has a perfect WIFOM shield. If that person is challenged as scum people have to a pick apart the analysis in several places or agree with the analyst. Most people are too lazy or indifferent to pick apart a long post. In some cases, the post is so fair and balanced that it is easier to say the analyst is town, since the analyst will most surely respond to any attacks in kind. In the late game the analyst can say if I'm scum show me when I did anything scummy, and if I am scum why go through all that effort when I could lurk and be safer.

QFT

I'm sorry Im finding it hard to look beyond you at the minute. When i look at others posts at lot of what the ysay reminds me of things I picked up on my first reread.

[Kieraen]

Actarus: (5) Honko, Tucking Fypo, Furpants_Tom, luchs, orangepenguin
Furpants_Tom: (3) roflcopter, blizzire, Actarus

Voting analysis:

Actarus, confirmed (and very dead) townie.
Tucking Fypo confirmed (and dead) townie.
Honko/kieraen (obviously I know my alignement, but I think based on Honko's easter egg obsevation we can assume he/I am townie.

That leaves TOM, LUCHS and OP.

TOM is totaly justified in his vote. Not saying he is townie, but if he is then voting actarus even if he thinks (which he didn't) he is innocent was more positive for the town than not voting. However as mafia the argument is the same. So Tom as either mafia or townie HAS to vote the other way.

I doubt very much that both scum were on the other bandwagon.

So I think we have at least one, if not two mafia from a short list of OP, TOM and LUCHS.

We should be voting this way today. (others townies may want to look at myself/honko as well).

[Kieraen]

OP has provided us with a lot of reasonf ro his voting, and hasn't really posted a considerable lot of detail considering he is a IC.

I think he could very well have been bussing TOM, if TOM comes up mafia, OP would be my first choice as second mafia, and vice versa.

This was would also fit with his inital post:

vote: Mafiana

(who became TOM)

The name says it all.

an early vote against a scumbuddy perhaps. I dunno, but i don't find it coincidental.

OP also stated that he trusted tom during the 2GOOD2BAD reveal, and trusted a lurker (despite the entireity of his argument against ACTARUS being that he was actively lurking.

I find his case against ACTARUS to be poor, however it was a day one case so this should be bared in mind.

Overall. I find him quite scummy. I don't believe that he is indecisive here. I think the case against TOM is stronger and that he never really made a case against ACTARUS.

His move of vote could be defensive against TOM. However if TOM turns out to be a townie, basically my case against OP disappears.

[Kieraen]

LUCHS has posted perhaps the least on that bandwagon, and the posts he has made have been very empty of content.

His admits to being a N00b on this site (has played 4 games previously elsewhere).
He has come in with basically no analysis.

He has been a consistent voter on ACTARUS duirng random voting stage and onwards, and has voted him 3 times with a single vote against blizzaire.

He stated just before the lynch that he did not find him particularly scummy but is 'giving the town options'.
His votes against Actarus were 1) random, 2) for lurking and 3) for an option for the town. The last resulted in a lynch.

His vote against Blizzaire was for not posting.

Overall I find him n00bie ish, but highly unproductive compared to the other two.

We might kill the game lynching a big poster like TOM, but not LUCHS.

Interstingly his replacement MIND OF DESCARTES, has been equally unhelpful, claiming to be abpout to contribute a huge analysis of three players which we continue to look forward to.

If LUCHS is mafia he is definitely playing the lurking game.