Open 121: Two of Four (b9) - Over! before 752

[Kmd4390]

If you don't have an issue with the wagon while the player is alive, you shouldn't have an issue with it if said player flips Town.

No, but scum are likely to be on most any mislynch. When you have a group of players which are more likely to be scum, you look into them a little more than you did before.

[SensFan]

If you don't have an issue with the wagon while the player is alive, you shouldn't have an issue with it if said player flips Town.

No, but scum are likely to be on most any mislynch. When you have a group of players which are more likely to be scum, you look into them a little more than you did before.

Scum are also more likely to not be on the lynch of someone they know is innocent.

If an innocent is lynched, I'm way more wary of the people that defended them tooth and nail than those that attacked tooth and nail.

[hewitt]

Okay well let me just clarify how I feel on this issue. If a player is put at L-1 and the players who are on that bandwagon ask for no one to hammer...but someone does I will put more responsibility not on the one who hammered, but the players who were stupid enough to put that player at L-1 to begin with. Because one vote at L-1 does not make a lynch it is all the votes before that as well.

[Kmd4390]

If an innocent is lynched, I'm way more wary of the people that defended them tooth and nail than those that attacked tooth and nail.

About what percentage of your games with a Day 1 mislynch have you seen 0 scum on the wagon?

Okay well let me just clarify how I feel on this issue. If a player is put at L-1 and the players who are on that bandwagon ask for no one to hammer...but someone does I will put more responsibility not on the one who hammered, but the players who were stupid enough to put that player at L-1 to begin with. Because one vote at L-1 does not make a lynch it is all the votes before that as well.

Regardless of whether or not it was a good lynch, a mislynch is likely to have scum on it.

[hewitt]

If an innocent is lynched, I'm way more wary of the people that defended them tooth and nail than those that attacked tooth and nail.

About what percentage of your games with a Day 1 mislynch have you seen 0 scum on the wagon?

Okay well let me just clarify how I feel on this issue. If a player is put at L-1 and the players who are on that bandwagon ask for no one to hammer...but someone does I will put more responsibility not on the one who hammered, but the players who were stupid enough to put that player at L-1 to begin with. Because one vote at L-1 does not make a lynch it is all the votes before that as well.

Regardless of whether or not it was a good lynch, a mislynch is likely to have scum on it.

Well yeah I mean that's pretty much exactly my point.

[Empking]

KMD: Is the number of scum more that you'd get if you picked random players?

[Kmd4390]

Analysis:

BlondeSoWut

- A total of ONE post. With a vote "just cus" that is STILL on. Still no read on her but she needs to post more.

Darkcoffeejazz

- Made 2 posts without a vote. Looks overly cautious. Finally votes BSW for being a troll.

Wow, three people with 2 votes each. I'm assuming 5 are needed on one person before they are lynched?

Seems overly anxious for a lynch. But he mentioned being from a faster paced site, so I can see this regardless of alignment.

Votes Zwet saying "we have to lynch someone". Again, being used to a fast pace explains some of this, but he shows slight displeasure in this lynch and hasn't suggested anything else.

So DCJ overall hasn't really given a suspicion aside from his random vote and his "we have to lynch someone" vote on Zwet. Neutral read, leaning slightly scum.

Empking

- Quotes Zwet voting him and saying lynch "useless" players and votes Zwet. (In RVS)

Asks Sens for a quote on Zwet. When Sens does this, he simply responds, "Thank you". Can I ask what the purpose was in that? (Never mind. You answered this later.)

Asks DCJ if he wants Zwet to claim/be lynched. When DCJ doesn't answer, he votes him.

Didn't want Zwet to claim. Doesn't want a counterclaim if Zwet is lying. I agree with this.

I'm leaning town on Emp.

hewitt

- Comes out strong against the Zwet wagon. Note that this is AFTER Zwet has claimed, so that's an obvious position to take.

Attacks Sens for voting Zwet. This is the obvious protown action to take and I can see scum doing it.

Logic tells me town, gut says scum.

militant

- Votes BSW for being a troll (RVS).

Calls out Zwet.

Goes after DCJ a little and unvotes. No serious vote yet.

I have a slight town read on mil.

SensFan

- Votes Zwet in RVS.

Calls his vote non random in his second post.

Throws a hailstorm at Zwet.

Defends himself for going after Zwet.

He's pretty much matching the town meta I have on him. I don't have scum meta, but I'd guess Sens is town right now.

ZazieR

- joke votes me. Null because I expected it before roles were even sent.

Then some fluff (not that it's bad fluff ) Again, null.

Asks DCJ a question. Continues to question DCJ. Voted him and questioned some more.

She's reminding me of her town play so far.

Zwet

- Mostly started off with uselessness.

Defended against mostly Sens, but others as well, including myself.

Claimed cop.

Voted DCJ.

So far I think he's town until it's proven otherwise. He needs to contribute actual content though.

So...

Most likely scum so far:
1.DCJ
2.BSW
3.Hewit/Mil

Vote DCJ

[Kmd4390]

KMD: Is the number of scum more that you'd get if you picked random players?

Haven't thought about that. Probably should have. I'll research it and have an answer for you when I'm done.

To be 100% sure, the question is:

On a Day 1 mislynch, is the number of scum on the lynch greater than the number of scum in a randomly generated list of the same number of players?

Correct?

My hypothesis is that it is. I have to research it though. I'll use my past games where a Day 1 mislynch has occured combined with random.org and I'll post the conclusion I get from my results here.

[Empking]

Yes.

[SensFan]

If an innocent is lynched, I'm way more wary of the people that defended them tooth and nail than those that attacked tooth and nail.

About what percentage of your games with a Day 1 mislynch have you seen 0 scum on the wagon?

Straw man much?

I never said there are no Scum on a mislynch, I'd say there's probably Scum on every non-Lylo-Scum lynch.

But Town going after ScummyTown is very possible (and even pro-Town, really). Town defending ScummyTown tooth and nail, barely plausible.

If zwet flips Town, I will be looking at hewitt

very

closely.

[SensFan]

SensFan

He's pretty much matching the town meta I have on him. I don't have scum meta, but I'd guess Sens is town right now.

Do you want a full list of all my completed games, sorted by alignment? I have one that I did in a game that ended not too long ago, shouldn't take more than 2-3 minutes to add in the games since.

[hewitt]

Empking I don't understand exactly what you were thinking in this game voting zwets so early on. To me you're hopping on the first bandwagon you can think of. You know zwets acts like this, you know this is how he plays, we have both played in the same game with him before where his behaviour was extensively analyzed, criticized, etc. This game is no different so why did you support a zwets lynch? Not to mention the fact that you have been following SensFan like a golden retriever.

[Empking]

Its called a random vote.

How have I been following Sens?

[SensFan]

Empking I don't understand exactly what you were thinking in this game voting zwets so early on. To me you're hopping on the first bandwagon you can think of. You know zwets acts like this, you know this is how he plays, we have both played in the same game with him before where his behaviour was extensively analyzed, criticized, etc. This game is no different so why did you support a zwets lynch?

If I decided that in every game I played, I would lie, have no content, argue for terrible theory, and always claim NK-Immune-SuperCop-SuperDoc-SuperVig, do you think I would EVER live past Day 1?

[hewitt]

During the stages where zwets was getting the most heat you were rallying off what SensFan was saying and you asked him for his take on zwets so that you could distinguish what his thoughts on zwets are vs. your thoughts and then after he gave it to you, you never really completed the second part of that by actually distinguishing his thoughts from your own and all you did was reply with a thank you. That was pretty useless considering you had explained why you wanted his thoughts for one reason and then totally didn't follow it. So far you've never really done anything either of great substance yet you manage to play it off as if you had by asking questions and never really letting the rest of the town know your exact logical reasoning behind your actions.

I can't really find any possible links between you and town at this point. Good thing it's early.

[Kmd4390]

Straw man much?

How? I asked a question.

But Town going after ScummyTown is very possible (and even pro-Town, really). Town defending ScummyTown tooth and nail, barely plausible.

Well of course town are going to be on a mislynch. A lynch can't happen without townies voting for it. My point is that scum are likely to be on a Day 1 mislynch. (Which of course I am going to research.)

Do you want a full list of all my completed games, sorted by alignment? I have one that I did in a game that ended not too long ago, shouldn't take more than 2-3 minutes to add in the games since.

If all your games are on mafiascum, I can find them if I feel the need.

[SensFan]

This should be all of my completed games. It does not include games in which I was replaced.

Newbie Games (Scum)
Newbie 613
Newbie 669
Newbie 683
Newbie 725

Newbie Games (Town)
Newbie 514
Newbie 550
Newbie 585
Newbie 586
Newbie 608
Newbie 638
Newbie 662

Mini Games (Scum)
Mini 537
Mini 550
Mini 551
Mini 570
Mini 625
Open 97

Mini Games (Town)
Mini 531
Mini 532
Mini 562
Mini 604
Mini 610
Mini 632
Mini 639
Mini 643
Mini 661
Mini 685
Open 102
Open 109
Open 113

Large Games (Scum)
Realistic Mafia
ehobanohar
Mafia 79

Large Games (Town)
Mafia 85

[zwetschenwasser]

BSW Is a troll. You might want to take that into account when assessing the randomness of the early votes.

[hewitt]

Where the hell is BlondeSoWut?

[zwetschenwasser]

Trolling around.

[Empking]

Its been like 5 days since her last post on the site.

[hewitt]

Its been like 5 days since her last post on the site.

Are you going to answer my last post about you at all?

[zwetschenwasser]

He's empking. People get mad at him for not being helpful more than they do with me posting one-liners.

[hewitt]

He's empking. People get mad at him for not being helpful more than they do with me posting one-liners.

Truthfully I don't really find either of you helpful though so I don't really need your help assessing Empking thanks much.

[zwetschenwasser]

You're welcome.