Newbie 732 - Abandoned

[luchs]

I have a pretty good idea on who is the cop, but I am going to keep my mouth shut on that one.

I think Orange Penguin, may be scum, however I wouldn't lynch him, until much later in the day. Orange Penguin does present some logic for his vote on infinis however it may still be a OMGUS.

[Erratus Apathos]

Vote Count

orangepenguin: (1) Infinis
roflcopter: (1) blizzire
Infinis: (1) orangepenguin

Not voting: Honko, Furpants_Tom, luchs, roflcopter

Four votes to lynch. Deadline: March 9

blizzire, Honko, and orangepenguin have been prodded.

[blizzire]

@Furpants_Tom
I think they are just 2 mafia using the tactic where they vote for each other. I can't be sure though.

[Furpants_Tom]

Maybe, but why would they bus at this point? Surely it'd be just as easy to start framing up a townie? That said, it's still early in the day - maybe they're hoping a third lynch contender pops up from purely town sources.

[Honko]

I'm here, but I'm in the middle of a busy couple of weeks. I doubt I'll have time to post much until this weekend.

[orangepenguin]

Okay, so we have exactly two weeks until deadline. Might not seem like a big deal, but time flies.

luch, my vote is not OMGUS. It's based on his crap logic and everything I else I already stated.

[Infinis]

Okay, so we have exactly two weeks until deadline. Might not seem like a big deal, but time flies.

luch, my vote is not OMGUS. It's based on his crap logic and everything I else I already stated.

Ok then please tell me why it's crap logic again.

1) You couldn't wait and let me hammer? You wagon jumped! That's scummy at the verfy least it's even more indecisive than what you are accusing me of being when I didn't hammer.

2) One post made you think actarus was scum enough to hammer his wagon, my left foot.

3) If any bussing is going on here its OP bussing Tom, hence the hammer instead of waiting for me to make a case and drop the hammer. OP couldnt risk me lynching his scum buddy as I was obviously leaning.

[Furpants_Tom]

Fair point. And OP and I do look pretty suspicious right now - how come no-one is prepared to stick up for Infinis? Do people distrust him, or trust me and/or Orange?

What's going on here, guys?

[orangepenguin]

Okay, so we have exactly two weeks until deadline. Might not seem like a big deal, but time flies.

luch, my vote is not OMGUS. It's based on his crap logic and everything I else I already stated.

Ok then please tell me why it's crap logic again.

1) You couldn't wait and let me hammer? You wagon jumped! That's scummy at the verfy least it's even more indecisive than what you are accusing me of being when I didn't hammer.

2) One post made you think actarus was scum enough to hammer his wagon, my left foot.

3) If any bussing is going on here its OP bussing Tom, hence the hammer instead of waiting for me to make a case and drop the hammer. OP couldnt risk me lynching his scum buddy as I was obviously leaning.

1) There was 8 other people. Nobody said you had to choose between Tom and Actarus. I wagoned jumped? Yes. Did I have suspicions of both of them? Yes. It'd be scummy if I randomly switched boat, but I didn't. I thought both were scummy.
2) It wasn't just one post. Let's just say I am very indecisive in intense situations.
3) If I didn't want a Furpants lynch, I could've just..you know, kept my vote stuck on Actarus. Then again, with 9 people alive, there doesn't have to be solely two people to decide between. If you were so obviously leaning towards FT, you probably should've placed a vote on him, don't you think? I don't see how I am bussing him. Sure, I said I "trusted him" in his little experience..as much as you can trust somebody day 1. That's because I figured he had knowledge = town. He wouldn't have said that if he was scum. And then he went around and said he was lying about having information.

[Furpants_Tom]

Hey, come on - you've got to stop misrepresenting this. I didn't tell a lie; I did just what I said I would - I gave you a piece of valuable information. And it got the conversation moving, for which I'm unrepentant. If I could do it again today, I definitely would.

It wasn't what people were looking for; but it's the only option I had available - except for lying, which would have been much worse for the town in both the short and long term.

[Erratus Apathos]

blizzire and luchs have been prodded.

[luchs]

sorry guys, I have been having difficulty logging in.

[orangepenguin]

Where is everyone? About 10 days until deadline.

[roflcopter]

Yes, rofl's case is that I'm Mafia because I try to convince people to disclose information, and disclose information myself. For a while, I was scum because I wasn't disclosing fast enough, but then I was scum because I disclosed the wrong thing.

He doesn't want us talking, and has done nothing but attack people who do. Take a look through his posts - what has he actually contributed?

you still continue to horribly misrepresent my position against you, but for now there are more important matters.

I see, exonerating the hammerer preemptively, very town. Now I regret not being the hammer...which leads me to...

@orangepenguin Nice flip/flop for the hammer, risky gambit...unless Furpants is your scum buddy?

yeah, i suppose his flip flop to become the hammer looks bad in light of tom's public opinion on hammer voters, but he's an ic and i expect he knows that one persons strange policy opinion would not save him just because he was the hammer. now you on the other hand did this:

Let's see

Unvote

and Ill vote before deadline, again testing a theory here.

very, very late, basically forcing what would have been a decision for you between tom and actarus, and automatically making

you the hammer

if op hadn't switched wagons instead. so your attack on orangepenguin for being the hammer vote looks mighty hypocritical when you were obviously posturing for that position yourself.

Good reason to kill tucking_fypo, for you or scum who wants to frame you

but... you were the other person fypo named as a possible investigation, so literally the exact same thing could be said against you. it seems that you're trying desperately to deflect any and all attention that could come from facts that would seem to apply to both of you solely onto him.

Desperately signaling scum buddy at L-1?

this is just a huge, huge reach. you're just groping for some more crap to fling at op.

Well, I think Honko is town. I realise it's WIFOM, but he seems to have known about the Post 87 easter egg prior to nightfall, and Typo was still killed. I think the mafia would have picked someone else for the nk if they hadn't thought he might be the cop.

this i agree with

I'm very certain that blizzire is town.

this i really don't get at all. blizzire has barely posted anything, so i don't know what you think there is to read on him, let alone be certain of.

I mentioned way before I was placed in the postition of hammer that I had a theory. I thought that the maifa, was not coordinated enough to lynch either of Actarus or Furpants earlier. The reason being that one of the two were mafia and the other wagon had not hit the critical mass of town votes to push through a lynch with mafia votes.

you make it sound like being in the position of hammerer was an accidental thing brought on by somebody else's actions, but you seem to have unvoted at the opportune time very intentionally, and it was most certainly brought about only by your own unvote close to the deadline. you can't rewrite history just because its convenient to push your case against op

If I was scum I would have hammered immediately and gone oops my bad. I made a simple mistake, sorry...and then redirect to an innocent townie. Hmm, sounds familiar.

this is a classic example of wifom. "if i was scum i wouldn't do action x, but i did action x, so i can't possibly be scum!" unfortunately for you, logic doesn't work quite like that.

vote: infinis

[Furpants_Tom]

While I generally agree with the suspicion of Infinis, the lack of a counterview is making me waver. Is there no-one in the room willing to speak up for him? No-one at all who finds me or OrangePenguin - or rofl, blizz, Honko or luch, for that matter - more mafiesque?

If you have doubts, I'd be interested to hear them.

[Infinis]

So after Day 1 of basically leading the Tom wagon this is what you decide to do PBPA and weak reason to vote me. You are voting me because WIFOM?

Let's be clear about what happened.

1. I was the hammer
2. I clearly stated I was testing a theory when I unvoted
3. Orange Penguin switched from one wagon to another becoming the hammer
4. We were well under deadline no pressure to hammer was evident
5. No one else in the game flip flopped wagons after L-2 on either player
6. OP flip flopped purportedly based on a single post by Act

There are three logical explanations for what happened:
A) OP was bussing Tom (or just hiding on a wagon) waiting for the hammer

B) OP thought I was scummier than either Tom or Act, therefore if he allowed me to be the hammer I would hammer an innocent townie

C) OP had doubts about his vote, but decided who was scummier between Tom and OP for his vote. When he saw that one post he changed his mind.

I'll let you decide which is more plausible between A, B, or C. However before you decide which is most likely look closer at each scenario

A) OP is either scum or is an unsure n00b. No IC is a n00b. So what does that leave?

B) OP decided to second guess everyone in town. OP thought he knew best and thought that I am the scummiest player beyond both Tom and Act.

C) OP gambled away an innocent townies life based on a single post. Not a well reasoned set of arguments, since he didn't present any before his vote, not a list of scummy posts, nothing other than one flimsy reason.

@roflcopter and Furpants Tom

Tell me which scenario best fits what happened? And if not these, then what?

[blizzire]

What's the chance of hitting a mafia by random lynching? Isn't it the same as lynching someone you suspect?

[Furpants_Tom]

I hope not. If we're only as accurate as chance, we're probably going to lose; because there are two individuals here who know who they need to get.

[Furpants_Tom]

Look, I know this is going to sound suspicious, but I'm no longer comfortable pushing for Infinis. He's got no defenders, which weirds me out a little. I want to hear more from luchs, blizz and Honko, for starters, because I'd like to hear where they stand; but having the 3 most vocal players in a row come out strongly against him - with rofl and op both near the top of my scumdar - either means he's getting bussed by the other mafia, or I'm totally wrong about him.

Moreover, every accusation against him ends something like: "... or he's just incompetent." Including mine. And, it should be remembered, this is a noob game, for noobs, full of - mostly - noobs. What if he is just panicking, and flailing around - acting scummy like I did yesterday because he's trying to save his skin? Yes; WIFOM strikes again, but it's a valid question.

Orangetown has a pretty good reason to push for Infinis. He knows that as last night's hammerer, he's in a weaker position with most of the townies - except for me, who doesn't believe that scum will hammer N1. He doesn't want to get lynched, because he knows it'd be a waste, and he's got enough reasons to suspect Infinis that a quick lynch would be a good gamble, in his opinion.
He's got every incentive to go straight for Infinis, make him the centre of conversation, distract people from the fact that he flipped twice and gacked the wrong guy.
Of course, he's not going to get it because of the rampant inactivity in the game; but that's another story.

Orangescum has a very good reason to push for Infinis, too; whether or not Infinis is mafia. If he's a townie, fantastic - see if he can turn his ballsy strategy of stealing Infinis's hammer - and taking out Actarus, who was very suspicious, but had strongly hinted he was hiding a role - into an extra townie lynch.

If Infinis is mafia too, they will have probably discussed the fact last night that they're now the two most suspicious players on the board. Given that there was a really good chance of the town wasting one or the other; it would make a lot of sense to get out on the front foot, and start proactively bussing. I don't like this theory, though; because OP should have known that his action - flipping and beating Infinis to the hammer - would land them both in hot water. Sure, I can understand some frustration at Infinis, since his overt delaying was a poor mafia tactic; but it still seems a bit too kamikaze for my liking.

If rofl is a townie, he's also got good reasons to vote for Infinis. He's an C, he can see that Infinis' actions are best interpreted as a noobish mafia play. He's played noob games before, and he's probably fully aware that the most obvious explanations will generally hold true. He took some time to see where other people were going; but has probably decided that stretching the day out is unlikely to be very productive. Infinis is flailing, but Scum are even more likely to flail wildly than your average townie, because the stakes - in terms of winning or losing - are much higher for them.

If he's mafia, he's just seen a brilliant opportunity. If OP and Infinis are both town, he's just hit a goldmine. He was probably intending to continue campaigning hard against me today; because I'm highly exposed, but with this situation landing in his lap; the possibility of another townie/townie choice made a change of tactics profitable. Watching OP and me come out against the guy instantly made the decision for him - go for the quick lynch of the townie today; and have a choice of OP or myself to score the final, victory-lap lynch tomorrow. FLAWLESS VICTORY!

If Infinis is mafia, though, I suspect he's just had a massive dressing down from rofl for yesterday's play. As with the Infinis/OP/mafia theory; bussing may well have been decided upon. Rofl didn't make the mistake of switching votes and making them both suspicious - once Infinis starting playing up, he kept his head down. Smart. But as they will have discussed, lobbying for OP's death at this point would be extremely risky. If Infinis were to be lynched, Rofl would look guilty; and if OP were to be lynched, Rofl would look guilty. He intends to surive to endgame, because he considers himself the brains of the team - so neither of these options are appealing. He lets Infinis know that he'll be bussing; but instructs Infinis that his best chance of survival is to aim squarely for OP.

I don't credit any theory that puts OP and Rofl on a mafia team. Their play, coming out together against a potential townie - is just too blatant. They would have to know that one of them would likely be lynched tomorrow. Or me, maybe; but that's a big gamble.

Basically, I don't think the reactions we've had here make Infinis any more likely to be scum. I think there's a good chance that either OP or Rofl are scum - if Infinis is innocent, it's more likely to be OP who's mafia; and if he's guilty, it's almost certainly rofl who's guilty with him. I don't know what we'd gain by hanging anyone but Infinis at this point; but I really don't want to just yet - because it just seems too easy.

Any thoughts?

[Honko]

I'll post tomorrow. For the moment,

He's got no defenders, which weirds me out a little.

I agree with this. If everyone in the game wants him dead, that means the mafia wants him dead as well. It doesn't mean he's necessarily innocent in this case, especially since we haven't heard from everyone yet today, but it's a general theory I've heard elsewhere that looks like it could possibly apply here.

[Infinis]

@Furpants It does seem more than suspicious I have no defenders. If this remains the case, then my lynch is counterproductive. We (the town) would be in no better of a position tomorrow (Day 3). In fact it would be worse 4 dead townies.

Come on, guys; quit playing so conservatively. If you lot don't start throwing some mud around, we'll never see what sticks.

I've given you all plenty to work with, so far - if there's a pattern to my accusations, you'll continue to get a steady stream of data to discern it. But blizzire, Honko and orangepenguin, you're giving us next to nothing to go on. Infinis and Actarus, it wouldn't hurt to have a bit more info from you two, as well. And tucking fypo is brand new, so some initial thoughts would be appreciated. roflcopter and luchs, I like the way you work, keep it up.

Oh, and specifically - Infinis, what makes you think I'm scumbuddies with Actarus or roflcopter?

I feel you are back-and-forth a lot between the both of them. From my limited experience, it usually boils down to two voices battling it out and the town picking sides Day 1. When a third person gets in the mix, I feel that at least one of these three people is scum, if not more.

That being said, I felt the fear and/or anger over that second vote during random, so I'll

unvote. FoS luchs

instead of vote since he did try to explain his actions.

Luchs explained himself after this, but it seems my original idea may be fact but I have no evidence to delineate the remaining two between town and scum. Ill maintain my vote until more evidence presents itself.

rolfcopter bussing Tom would be genius. Especially since rofl started early and hard. And today Tom returns to the fray. If either flips scum the other would be untouchable. If OP's actions weren't so scummy, I would switch my vote now.

FoS

Furpants Tom

FoS

roflcopter

That being said I dont feel good about all the lurkers we have this game. Going to be rough scum hunting late game.

[roflcopter]

i have more to respond to, which will come in a bit, but this

Moreover, every accusation against him ends something like: "... or he's just incompetent."

is incorrect. my attacks had nothing to do with incompetence and everything to do with how infinis' actions make him scum.

[Furpants_Tom]

is incorrect. my attacks had nothing to do with incompetence and everything to do with how infinis' actions make him scum.

Having checked back through the posts, this is true. I apologise. You never mention incompetence.

[blizzire]

I have nothing to say. I'm not changing my vote unless someone gives a reason to vote someone else. If you have already said something, tell me and I'll read it.

[orangepenguin]

MOD

can we have a new vote count, please?