Mini 734 - GrimMafia - OVER

[springlullaby]

Aha! Springlullaby is scum!

That just sounds too saucy to be true.


---------------------------------------------------

Right now I'm kinda puzzled by the quality of the argument, or lack thereof, directed at me and think it quite scummy but I'm also thinking 'man scum can't be that bad at it, can they'.

[springlullaby]

Ectomancer, what do you think of Nuwem associating her name with yours in questioning zwet?

[Ectomancer]

My questions were equally tied in with Zach's, so it didn't phase me to see my name so many times from someone else, especially when Zwet kept neglecting his responses.

Zwet, your answers have been inadequate. My vote was withheld because I'm always concerned about running someone up the rope when they seem to hold strong convictions after night takes place. It gets me into the situation where I'm forced to wonder if something occurred the night before for this sudden opinion. Therein lies the rub. Would a cop or other role like a tracker just suddenly come out on Day 2 with a statement that is practically a claim to scum if they are actually town?
It doesn't make sense to me unless they are pulling the Goon sacrifice that would get a townie lynched today (due to their claim), another townie tonight, followed by their lynch on day 3.

That would setup (assuming no dob/block/etc and 3 scum) 2 scum and 4 town in Lylo day 4 and if we hit scum we are back in Lylo on Day 5. Not a good scene for us and a good return on a sacrifice for scum. Factor in the possibility of a counterclaim from town, thereby exposing a power role and there is good reasoning for them to try such a gambit.
I would advise any such player to hold their tongue if I've correctly anticipated his move.

vote Zwet

The only thing that makes sense to me is if you got a guilty investigation and felt it worth the trade of 1 town for 1 scum, hoping for a Doc block tonight and getting maybe a 2nd investigation for tomorrow or maybe even 2 if lucky. But your method makes no sense. I would either claim and reveal the guilty right off the bat, or keep completely quiet and try to guide the lynch in his direction today, but not this mystery proclamation where we've spent 2 pages focused on you.

[Nuwen]

I just backread and realized that I voted for Spring based on inaccurate time recollection. I thought Spring's shift from supporting a policy lynch on Zero to preferring a Jere lynch was instantaneous, but she had expressed that view for a few pages, with no single trigger pushing her in one direction or the other. I'm not sure why the opposite was firmly ingrained in my memory.

unvote

"Fluff" refers to information exchange or discussion that gives the impression of grilling or stance reading, but actually goes nowhere. You pointed out that Jere said something to the effect of "we should lynch scum because it's good to lynch scum." Your exchange with Zach went along the lines of:

1. Why do you think anything Jere said is not scummy?
2. omg ask nicer. Explain why you think he IS scummy.
1. wtfnice. I already did. So why don't you?
2. omgurnotnice. So why is he scummy?
1. gtfomanners. Find why he's scummy.

[Pablo Molinero]

When I read zwet's first declaration after the night, I thought, "This has to be a joke". But lo and behold: baffling seriousness. Was scum really trying to set this up that badly? I had suspicions on day 1, but he had answers. Now...

vote: zwetschenwasser

[Beyond_Birthday]

What accusations? All he said is that Zach didn't vote. BB is reluctant because of that noob town switch. It was too hasty and seemed contrived.

With this post, you show you obviously don't feel the need to read people's posts. Not really scummy, just a notice that bothered me.

Oops. I thought I did vote spring on page fourteen. I must have deleted it.

Vote: Spring

. I'd like Zach to explain exactly why my post makes him think I pushed for a NK, using quotes from yesterday. I never showed much interest in Spring yesterday, and I don't think I implied yesterday that I was going after the spring case today. I simply noticed the arguments presented against spring, and now that significant incriminating evidence has been provided, I have good grounds to find him scummy.

Why are you not citing specific cases from yesterday? How is JereIC's alignment give you damning evidence on Spring? I see you forming some kind of case against Spring here, and yet, you are accusing her of being scum based on interactions (without explaining how they conclude: "If Jere town, spring scum") between jere and spring without showing where (or which posts) demonstrate that Spring is likely to be the inverse alignment of Jere.

[Zachrulez]

I'm finding it awfully tempting to vote for Zwet, but when I really think about it, I'm not sure if my vote is better placed on him or Nuwen.

They are my top suspects though.

Let's start with Zwet.

349: Aha, Spring is scum. Nice to know that can be argued without any kind of a case, and based only on the NK.

351: Claims JereIC's town flip incriminates Spring. Oh yeah, also COMPLETELY agrees with Nuwen... huh?

353: Fluff

355: I posted that Spring was scum before Nuwen!

358: Direct quote in bold.

I thought it was clear from yesterday's spring/jere debate that jere's alignment would point towards spring's scum/towniness.

I would like Zwet to explain how that statement carries merit. It's based off the assumption that apparently only scum are critical of/attack townies.

364: Points out BB's reluctance to the Zero wagon. I'm sensing that someone likes pointing fingers so that we don't notice who pushed Zero's wagon so hard, antagonizing him the whole way.

366, 368: Demonstrates either an inability to read, or an inability to pay attention to what was said.

371: Votes Spring after being asked why he didn't vote in the face of such certainty. Points out his relative disinterest in the Spring case on day 1, but says he did notice the arguments against her, and finds the night 1 evidence incriminating. Hmmm...

Now Nuwen.

350: "Zero's wagon was virtually useless" stinks of scum gloating to me. Argues the JereIC wagon as a reason for voting Spring... and also a fascinating theory about my exchange with her being designed to distract from her attempted wagoning of JereIC. I say fascinating, because I thought the point of my disagreement with her was to DRAW attention to what she was doing.

356: WIFOM argument. I hate these. I see the point of it... but I'm very reluctant to buy/act/play based on it. I see it being a far more beneficial strategy for Spring to simply kill someone else if she's scum.

357: Direct quote in bold

Yeah, that's why Ecto and I don't like it. We realize that you've been pursuing spring since yesterday, but you didn't point out how Jere and Zero's alignment confirmed spring's alignment to you. I have the reasons I stated, but they're less definitive - care to share yours?

When playing mafia, it's a good idea to assume others players cannot read minds.

I am VERY confused by this post, because I haven't seen any posts prior to post 357, back to the beginning of the day where Nuwen states any concern for Zwet's suspicion of Spring.

361, 362: Backtracks on me being Spring's most likely scum buddy.

365: Grills Zwet on his presumption of Spring being scum. What about YOURS?

367: Fascinating. I smell a scum bus.

369: More scent to possible bussing. Nuwen asks where Zwet's vote is... which is a fair question. (Zwet does vote soon after I believe.)

378: D'OH! Re-read indicates that Spring doesn't look suspicious to Nuwen after all. The transformation is complete, now the entirety of the suspicion can be focused on Zwet. One thing here... what stopped you from doing a re-read BEFORE voting for Spring? Just curious.

Not ready to vote yet, and I don't really see any hurry to.

I want to see Zwet's response to the case and votes against him, and am also interested to see Nuwen's reaction to me... and I'm interested in seeing more of how Zwet and Nuwen react to each other as well.

For now.

FOS: Zwet and Nuwen

From here, I'll probably have another look at day 1, and see if there's anything there that can shed more light on what's going on now.

[Nuwen]

I can see where the bussing theory is derived from, but it depends on three assumptions that need to be proven independently:

1. Zwet is scum
2. Nuwen is scum
3. Nuwen is currently pushing for Zwet's lynch

If 2 is assumed because 1 is assumed because 3 is predicted, the theory deteriorates.

"Zero's wagon was virtually useless" stinks of scum gloating to me.

Or someone trying to nip mislynch finger-pointing in the bud. A classic scum tactic is to set up a mislynch and then cycle through every member of the wagon and lay blame on thick, especially if the lynchee was overtly scummy. I usually open each day with an analysis of 1) Final wagon members 2) On & off votes 3) Density of support from each wagon member, but Zero's poor town play makes that senseless to do.

I don't deal with WIFOM directly either; instead I try to identify and reason out the source for it. It's one thing to fall into a WIFOM trap and another altogether to

point out

where its being employed and attempt to deduce why.

I am VERY confused by this post, because I haven't seen any posts prior to post 357, back to the beginning of the day where Nuwen states any concern for Zwet's suspicion of Spring.

Nothing screams scum/irrational town play to me like an unjustified vote. I don't have to actively pursue a player to read one of his or her posts, recognize a fault, and point it out or ask for clarification. Are you suggesting that someone needs to be tunneling another player in order for his or her suspicions not to be suspicious themselves? I think you read this post in retrograde,

after

deciding that I'm bussing Zwet, and then tried to make it fit the scenario.

D'OH! Re-read indicates that Spring doesn't look suspicious to Nuwen after all. The transformation is complete, now the entirety of the suspicion can be focused on Zwet. One thing here... what stopped you from doing a re-read BEFORE voting for Spring? Just curious.

I was working from a combination of notes and memory which are usually reliable, save me from ten-tabbed browsing, and give me an easy way to compare evolving voting patterns. You can take a peek. I'll probably have my voting matrix reordered and converted to a more readable chart soon.. A lot of my early day 1 notes are condensed though; I expected to be replaced.

[Ectomancer]

I can see where the bussing theory is derived from, but it depends on three assumptions that need to be proven independently:

1. Zwet is scum
2. Nuwen is scum
3. Nuwen is currently pushing for Zwet's lynch

If 2 is assumed because 1 is assumed because 3 is predicted, the theory deteriorates.

It doesn't deteriorate, it was simply built on an unsound foundation. Plus, from the get go, even if 1 and 3 are true, it still does not directly correlate to 2 being true. For that, you have to go with analysis. Personally, I would have waited rather than giving the case for you bussing Zwet

until

Zwet actually gets lynched and turns up scum. Posting a case beforehand is almost a warning sign saying "Stop what you're doing before I really catch you doing something scummy".

[zwetschenwasser]

I don't like how Nuwen igored that part of Jere's case on her was the Jere flip-flop. I thought it should point against Spring's towniness because:

1) Spring had an argument with Jere and thought him scum yesterday
2) Spring probably thought that if Jere died and flipped town he would be incriminated
3) If a cop investigated Jere and got an innocent Spring would be in a big pit
4) Solution: take out Jere fast and try to convince the town that it was a Mafia framejob today
5) Get mad at everyone by saying that cases against him would be WIFOM.

[Pablo Molinero]

That seems awfully specific. Sounds more like you're trying to sell us a story.

[zwetschenwasser]

See? Spring is trying to get people to say this. And are you saying tha specific cases are bad?

[Ectomancer]

See? Spring is trying to get people to say this.

And are you saying tha specific cases are bad?

Whaaat? Spring has subliminal messages in his avatar?

Listen, your 5 point step still makes no sense. Why would a cop investigation on JereIC turning up innocent be so much more condemning than a NK'd Jere turning up town?

[Nuwen]

See? Spring is trying to get people to say this. And are you saying tha specific cases are bad?

Spring hasn't "tried" a thing. You're the one pushing faulty presumptions here:

1) Spring had an argument with Jere and thought him scum yesterday
2) Spring probably thought that if Jere died and flipped town he would be incriminated

I've already dismissed this as WIFOM, in addition to being a poor argument. Why would Spring pursue a case if she feared the town flip would point directly in her direction (more WIFOM, sorry)? If an informed minority pushes for a lynch, he

knows the target will inevitably flip town and should prepare for it

. This is scum 101. Backing off a lynch with a predictable outcome is a bad action to present as a scumtell.

3) If a cop investigated Jere and got an innocent Spring would be in a big pit

Why would this be any more or less incriminating than a town flip? If a mislynch occurs, do all former attacks on that player instantly become scummy, logical or not?

I hate to behave exactly as BB predicted and I don't want to bolster his shaky bus theory, but I'm putting a big, fat

FOS on Zwet

.

[Nuwen]

Oh, and

prods on Wolfblitzer, madam.fobs.hero., and Sipylus

please.

[madam.fobs.hero.]

im here.

vote: beyond_birthday

not gonna lie, pretty pissed that despite a few smarter people going hes town you morons you guys still lynched z3r0ph34r.

lets get the scum this time, hmm?

[zwetschenwasser]

Behold how Nuwen ignored Zach's case again. If Jere had been investigated it would look like scum pressing for a mislynch.

[Nuwen]

Herro there.

I was really hoping Zero would get day vig'd before being lynched; his play made his wagon meaningless, and our first day's lynch could have been spent developing a more striated bandwagon to pick apart today. I'm a strong advocate of Lynch All Liars - I can't think of a single claim gambit that is more beneficial than detrimental to the town. He and his multiple claims would have been a liability for the rest of the game. But I wanted to make a case for this scrubby obvtown play so scum couldn't hide on his wagon as easily. Scum love scummy town.

Behold how Nuwen ignored Zach's case again. If Jere had been investigated it would look like scum pressing for a mislynch.

What the bugger are you going on about?

If a cop wants to use an innocent result as ammunition against someone, two things need to happen:

1. He needs to breadcrumb an innocent result,

and then question anyone still pursuing the case AFTER obvtown is laid out

. Are you really going to call pursuit on a non-obvtown target scummy?

Really

?

2. The target needed to be obvtown prior to the investigation, which Jere was not.

I think you should take another look at your list of scum tells. Most of them appear to be equally indicative of pro-town play.

[Beyond_Birthday]

I don't like how Nuwen igored that part of Jere's case on her was the Jere flip-flop. I thought it should point against Spring's towniness because:

1) Spring had an argument with Jere and thought him scum yesterday
2) Spring probably thought that if Jere died and flipped town he would be incriminated
3) If a cop investigated Jere and got an innocent Spring would be in a big pit
4) Solution: take out Jere fast and try to convince the town that it was a Mafia framejob today
5) Get mad at everyone by saying that cases against him would be WIFOM.

1. True.
2. Assumes Spring is scum, so I will treat "Spring is mafia/scum" as a given. Thus, I suppose that to a mild point, town Jere might incriminate spring.
3. Cop would out himself for an innocent? This seems rather stupid. A cop dying=/= the gain of a "proven" innocent. (Sanity of cop is also assumed, so you're starting to reach.) Also, wouldn't it be easier to attempt and find cop and kill him before he reveals Jere is town. (Now, this assumes that Cop won't out himself with only one result.) Also, this plan of trying to find cop works far better because cop may investigate Spring, which is undefended in your theory. Sounds a bit like specious reasoning...
4. ...a gambit by mafia this early is an assumption also based on specious reasoning. Also, this hasn't happened.
5. This hasn't happened either.

Vote Zwet

im here.

vote: beyond_birthday

not gonna lie, pretty pissed that despite a few smarter people going hes town you morons you guys still lynched z3r0ph34r.

lets get the scum this time, hmm?

Just acknowledging the vote on me since there is nothing to defend against.

[zwetschenwasser]

It's his evil scum plan.

[Nuwen]

Would Grimmy be cruel enough to put a Jester in this game?

[zwetschenwasser]

Exactly. Enter WIFOM stage right.

[Ectomancer]

Heh, no. WIFOM is when you have 2 equally likely outcomes to an event. I'm not certain how many games I've played, but I've got over 3000 posts (and I think some were lost a couple times when the server went thhppbbt). I've never played in a game with a Jester role. Nor would I care if there were. I refuse to consider that person 'winning' simply for being lynched, and if he believes he did, whatever. I'm pretty sure the game just keeps playing to see which group gets "2nd".

Anyhow, no way is this even close to a 50/50 proposition.

[Nuwen]

I care, because Zwet is pining for a lynch right now.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 26#1506626

I have a pre-in for Suzumiya, but I'm not dead in one of my four minis, but I want to be in Suzumiya. What do I do?

Trying to suicide out of our game?

[Zachrulez]

The last few posts make me uncomfortable...

A Jester claim is one of the safest claims you can possibly make in a game.

I wouldn't say I'm exactly worried about actually lynching a Jester though.

The whole concept of the role seems retarded, because it basically punishes town for doing exactly what they are supposed to do.

I say we don't second guess based on that.

Nuwen proposing the concept as a possibility for Zwet not being scum concerns me though.