Mini 680: Portlandia- Game Over!

[bionicchop2]

Did the game end or did everybody run out of thoughts?

vote KoC

There is something to discuss. Enjoy.

Vote Count as of post 1000

(1)Knight of Cydonia: bionicchop2

Not Voting: Knight of Cydonia, Casey, Farkshinsoup, icemanE, X
4 votes to lynch.

[Casey]

I'm here, I was waiting for Knight to respond before posting again, but whatever. Let's make something happen.

Here's my perspective:

I'm believing Ice and X as cop and miller.

That leaves me with a 2/3 chance to vote scum: Bionic, Fark, and Knight.

Bionic has voted for Knight twice today, and, although this is total WIFOM, I'm going to assume that if you are scum, you didn't just vote for your scumbuddy twice, which means only one of you two is scum, which means Fark is scum.

After everything I wrote, I'm a little disappointed that this is all I got in return, so whatever.

WIFOM:

Vote Fark

[X]

Vote: KoC

.

I can see that KoC only ever put RBT in a negative light when he proposed the afatchic-icemanE-RBT scumgroup. His vote pattern (or lake thereof) is odd. And yeah, his disbelief of icemanE is plausible, but disbelief of a Miller for no reason whatsoever besides my claim is unfounded. Seems like he's looking for someone to incriminate.

[Farkshinsoup]

I'm still waiting for Ice to answer my question from my post 995. I still don't believe his cop claim, and you guys are letting him off the hook too easily.

Vote: Ice

But he must have a partner - so it's either KoC or Casey, IMO.

[bionicchop2]

After everything I wrote, I'm a little disappointed that this is all I got in return, so whatever.

To be honest, I had already gone over sanity scenarios in my head which is why I thought the GF was in name only. Once it became obvious there was something altering reports, it because useless to take it any further.

Re:Casey, I'm not sure if all of that was meant to clarify things for us or muddy the waters even more.

This might be on the minds of a few of us since I had a similar thought when it was posted. I could see a town player trying to figure it out, but I could also see a scum player who knew why the results were that way trying to throw out scenarios that point to a town player being scum.

You never even responded to my response(s) where I point out that me as scum is not the only possibility of one of your scenarios. You have made a few glaring errors in your analysis since you entered the game.

Moreover, it increases the chance that you are scum. Saying you're confused instead of asking the mod for clarification also shows a reluctance to solve the game.

Point to where I said I was 'confused'. That is just a twist of words. I said:

I don't think I can make a solid conclusion about anybody based on this. All it does for me right now is increase the chance Ice could be scum running a gambit.

There is no confusion even implied. I just refuse to guess who scum might have framed. I am not confused at all. I understand the basics of the framer role from Epic Mafia and am working with those concepts which would have any framing done prior to an investigation (basically that player becomes a miller) and then cop sanities work as normal.

Now back to:

After everything I wrote, I'm a little disappointed that this is all I got in return, so whatever.

Don't you think X deserved some sort of response for his voting analysis post? I responded and then the game sat for over 24 hours with nobody saying anything. I don't know if you have ever gone through a game and logged every vote, but I have before. Trust me, it takes quite a bit of time and it does more in the way of scum hunting than trying to guess who got framed.

[bionicchop2]

I started a rework of X's analysis the other day, but didn't have a chance to finish it. Here it is now. His analysis shows the flow of players jumping on wagons. This chart shows them in isolation by each player to see the full body of a player's votes.

Vote Analysis

BC2 =>

RBT

BC2 => Casey
BC2 =>

Adams

BC2 =>

afatchic

BC2 =>

Xtoxm

BC2 =>

afatchic

BC2 => 0
BC2 =>

afatchic

BC2 => 0
BC2 =>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

BC2 => icemanE

End of D2

Start of D3

BC2 => NL
BC2 =>

RBT

End of D3

Start of D4

============
X =>

afatchic

X =>

Adams

X =>

afatchic

X =>

Xtoxm

X => 0
X =>

Xtoxm

X =>

afatchic

X => 0
X =>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

X =>

RBT

X => BC2

End of D2

Start of D3

X => NL
X =>

RBT

X => 0
X =>

RBT

End of D3

Start of D4

============

Adams

=> BC2

Adams

=> X

Adams

=> 0

Adams

=> KoC

Adams

=>

RBT

Adams

=> 0

Adams

=>

q21

Adams

=> 0

Adams

=> icemanE

Adams

=> 0

Adams

=> KoC

End of D1

Start of D2

============
FIS => BC2
FIS =>

Adams

FIS => KoC
FIS =>

Xtoxm

FIS => 0
FIS =>

afatchic

FIS => 0

End of D1

Start of D2

FIS =>

Xtoxm

FIS => 0
FIS => icemanE
FIS => 0
FIS =>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

FIS => NL
FIS => 0
FIS =>

RBT

End of D3

Start of D4

============
icemanE => Casey
icemanE =>

Adams

icemanE => 0
icemanE =>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

icemanE =>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

icemanE =>

RBT

icemanE => 0
icemanE =>

RBT

End of D3

Start of D4

============
Casey => FIS
Casey =>

Adams

Casey => icemanE
Casey =>

afatchic

Casey => 0
Casey => 0
Casey =>

RBT

Casey =>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

Casey => icemanE

End of D2

Start of D3

End of D3

Start of D4

============

q21

=> X

q21

=> 0

q21

=>

G-Force

q21

=>

RBT

q21

=>

afatchic

q21

=>

Xtoxm

q21

=>

afatchic

q21

=> 0

q21

=>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

End of D2

Start of D3

============

G-Force

=>

Xtoxm

G-Force

=> 0

G-Force

=> X

G-Force

=> 0

G-Force

=>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

============

afatchic

=> X

afatchic

=>

Xtoxm

End of D1

Start of D2

afatchic

=>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

afatchic

=>

RBT

afatchic

=> NL

afatchic

=>

RBT

End of D3

Start of D4

============
KoC =>

Adams

KoC =>

Xtoxm

KoC =>

Xtoxm

KoC =>

Xtoxm

End of D1

Start of D2

KoC =>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

End of D3

Start of D4

============

Xtoxm

=>

afatchic

Xtoxm

=>

Xtoxm

Xtoxm

=> 0

Xtoxm

=> icemanE

Xtoxm

=>

afatchic

Xtoxm

=> 0

Xtoxm

=>

afatchic

Xtoxm

=> KoC

End of D1

Start of D2

Xtoxm

=> KoC

Xtoxm

=> icemanE

Xtoxm

=>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

============

RBT

=>

afatchic

RBT

=>

Adams

End of D1

Start of D2

RBT

=>

afatchic

RBT

=>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

RBT

=> X

End of D3

Start of D4

1. Cops don't fit the profile of a standard town player. I generally have them on the scummy side of my reads. They have more information than others and play secretive. I think the voting of the cops is more conservative.

2. My theory has always been that scum vote for less people and try to avoid direct conflicts. They pick a target and stick with it. Sometimes this gives a false scum read on town depending on the player.

3. KoC's voting most closely resembles that of RBT and fits how I would see scum vote. Look at how many times in a row he voted for Xtoxm when his vote was already there. Compare this voting pattern with RBT. RBT voted afatchic, adams and xtoxm. KoC focused on xtoxm and adams. Also of note is no voting during the lynch of RBT (same for Casey).

KoC =>

Adams

KoC =>

Xtoxm

KoC =>

Xtoxm

KoC =>

Xtoxm

End of D1

Start of D2

KoC =>

Xtoxm

End of D2

Start of D3

End of D3

Start of D4

[Knight of Cydonia]

Is it just me, or has this game turned into "Who Can Post the Most Meaningless Data", with a bonus round of "Why, Regardless of Anything Else, This Means KOC=Scum".
These walls of text aren't just annoying, they're scummy, because the essential intent is to hope people get bored, flick to the last paragraph, and see "KoC is scum", then go with it.
Oh, and I like how my absence for the end of D3 suddenly becomes a scum tell because I wasn't around to hammer RBT.

[bionicchop2]

Heaven forbid a forum mafia game has words in it and you are forced to read. How painful that must be.

Start scum hunting.

[Casey]

You never even responded to my response(s) where I point out that me as scum is not the only possibility of one of your scenarios. You have made a few glaring errors in your analysis since you entered the game.

This is true. I was going to wait for Knight to respond before I admitted that I realized that you could have been framed the night before. The post Knight has given us, however, is underwhelming.

Yes, I have made errors, and I thank you for pointing them out. I haven't ever played with a framer so I had to do my second analysis to fix the first, and the conclusion from my analysis after your correction is that an innocent result on you means nothing.

Don't you think X deserved some sort of response for his voting analysis post? I responded and then the game sat for over 24 hours with nobody saying anything. I don't know if you have ever gone through a game and logged every vote, but I have before. Trust me, it takes quite a bit of time and it does more in the way of scum hunting than trying to guess who got framed.

Again, I was waiting for Knight to post. And I apologize, but I have absolutely no idea how analyzing votes works. Even the wiki article on it seems reads like a bunch of WIFOM.

The mod also got back to us on the framer ability, so I'm going to believe that Ice is the insane cop. The investigation on Bionic means nothing.

---

What I do find surprising, however, is Fark's recent vote for Ice.

Both you and I, Bionic, have narrowed the suspects down to 3 (Fark, Knight, and each other), because we believe (or at least I believe) Ice's claim of cop and X's claim of miller.

Ice is letting everyone do the thinking for him.

X accuses Knight.

Knight says tl;dr and then OMGUS's... all of us?

While Knight is definitely coming of scummy, I feel that Fark is a safer choice for a few reasons that may or may not be WIFOM:

1) He still accuses Ice and fingers, of all people, me or Knight as Ice's partner!
2) Bionic voted for Knight, and I'm assuming that scum didn't just vote for scum.
3) Bionic voted for Knight, then X voted for Knight, then I voted for him, and he didn't respond to any of it.

I still think my original guess of Fark & Knight is correct.

Fark & Knight: Bionic is acting too pro-town for me to believe he's scum (although his sig may be subliminally making me think that!). 70%
Fark & Bionic: Well played, if true. 20%
Bionic & Knight: Still a possibility. 10%

My vote will stay on Fark for now.

Waiting to see who Ice leans toward / votes for.

[icemanE]

KoC's latest post is a REALLY, even admittedly lazy defense. I don't like that at all.

I think we have to disregard my report now, which is a bummer, if there's a framer, and it seems there is.

To answer someone's question about where I "got the idea" that there was a framer in the game, the epicmafia setups with 4 cops almost always have an alignment altering or concealing role. Framer is the only one that makes any sense for what has happened this game.

[Farkshinsoup]

While Knight is definitely coming of scummy, I feel that Fark is a safer choice for a few reasons that may or may not be WIFOM:

1) He still accuses Ice and fingers, of all people, me or Knight as Ice's partner!

Please explain why this is scummy. You are the two scummiest players after Ice, IMO.

2) Bionic voted for Knight, and I'm assuming that scum didn't just vote for scum.

Just to be clear - who do you think is scum, bio or KoC? And how does this relate to me?

3) Bionic voted for Knight, then X voted for Knight, then I voted for him, and he didn't respond to any of it.

There was really nothing to respond to in any of that. What should I have said?

To answer someone's question about where I "got the idea" that there was a framer in the game, the epicmafia setups with 4 cops almost always have an alignment altering or concealing role. Framer is the only one that makes any sense for what has happened this game.

Yeah, that was me that asked. You've known that there were 4 cops for awhile now, and we've all known that there were 4 cops since you claimed yesterday. If the "4 cops and a framer" is so common and well known to you, how come you didn't mention it until today? Seems pretty convenient.

[Casey]

While Knight is definitely coming of scummy, I feel that Fark is a safer choice for a few reasons that may or may not be WIFOM:

1) He still accuses Ice and fingers, of all people, me or Knight as Ice's partner!

Please explain why this is scummy. You are the two scummiest players after Ice, IMO.

It's WIFOM. You could be fingering KoC to distance yourself from a scumbuddy, or you're town and you think he's scum.

And why do you think Ice and I are the two scum? I really don't see how you can say that an airtight cop claim and scumhunting are scumtells.

2) Bionic voted for Knight, and I'm assuming that scum didn't just vote for scum.

Just to be clear - who do you think is scum, bio or KoC? And how does this relate to me?

That's the thing: I don't know. Like I said: These are WIFOM reasons. Either Bio voted for his scumbuddy, or Bio is scum and Knight is clean, or Knight is scum and Bio is clean. 2 out of 3 possibilities result in you being scum.

3) Bionic voted for Knight, then X voted for Knight, then I voted for him, and he didn't respond to any of it.

There was really nothing to respond to in any of that. What should I have said?

You should have realized that voting Ice was dumb, but you didn't. Why? I don't know. Again, that's WIFOM, Either Ice or X is going to die tonight. Ice is basically posting as a dead man walking.

So why am I voting for you?
1) After all my analysis, I'm out of things to go on except WIFOM
2) I believe X's and Ice's claims, so that makes it a 66% chance that you're scum.

Again, my gut says Fark and Knight are scum, so let's see what they say to this:

Fark, if you had to choose between Bio, Knight, and I, who do you think is the scum? Explain your answers.

Knight, if you had to choose between Bio, Fark, and I, who do you think is the scum? Explain your answers.

[Farkshinsoup]

airtight cop claim

There's your problem, right there. As far as I know, ice has not been CONFIRMED as a cop. Yet you are treating him as if he is, and you are throwing out scum accusations accordingly. So I'm scum because I don't believe Ice's claim lock, stock, and barrel? The question is, why are you doing this? Are you a misguided townie, or scum?

Fark, if you had to choose between Bio, Knight, and I, who do you think is the scum? Explain your answers.

I'd really like to go back and do a reread to give a proper answer to this, but I just haven't had the time for the 40 plus pages here. I will say that I don't think bio is scum. So it would be down to you and KoC.

Anyways, it's clear that Ice won't be lynched today, so

unvote:ice.

. Bio and X: how certain are you that KoC is scum?

[bionicchop2]

Bio and X: how certain are you that KoC is scum?

How certain can anybody ever be about who is scum? I feel fairly solid that ice and X are town - as I have stated.

This leaves 3 players and the assumed 2 remaining scum. The town player out of that group is either going to be you / Casey IMO since I have seen what appears to be scum hunting from both today. Further more, KoC has been at L-2 with both you and Casey not piling on (also ice did not add a vote) - which convinces me Fark/Casey cannot be a scum pair. Unless X is scum (I don't believe so) enough voting opportunities have popped up to convince me the only reason KoC has not been lynched yet is because he is scum.

[X]

Bio and X: how certain are you that KoC is scum?

I can see that KoC only ever put RBT in a negative light when he proposed the afatchic-icemanE-RBT scumgroup. His vote pattern (or lake thereof) is odd. And yeah, his disbelief of icemanE is plausible, but disbelief of a Miller for no reason whatsoever besides my claim is unfounded. Seems like he's looking for someone to incriminate.

And like bionicchop2 said, it's in comparison to others' scumminesses.

[Farkshinsoup]

How certain can anybody ever be about who is scum?

Poor phrasing on my part. What I should have said was: How likely are you to keep your vote on KoC until the end of the day?

I hate to do it this way, but by process of elimination:
Ice won't be lynched today, although he's my top candidate. Since his investigations (or fake investigations, IMO) won't tell us anything more about his (or anyone else's) alignment tomorrow, I see no good reason to keep him alive, unless you actually believe his claim.

Between Casey and KoC, (the only other people I'd vote for) it seems that KoC is the only one who's got enough votes for the lynch, but I'm reluctant to do that until we hear more from him. KoC, I"d like a role claim from you (I'm putting you at L-1) and some idea of who your top scum candidates are. Anyone who hammers before KoC has a chance to respond should die a flaming death tomorrow.

Vote: KoC

[bionicchop2]

Anyone who hammers before KoC has a chance to respond should die a flaming death tomorrow.

Well, since we are at mylo, this is the end unless he is scum. Again, since there was no quicklynch of him when you and Casey were on, then I can be pretty sure both of you can't be scum.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Am I at L-1? Hm.
Well, I'm a god's honest VT, so, with the inevitability of Obama's assassination, where's the hammer...

[Farkshinsoup]

KoC, I"d like a role claim from you (I'm putting you at L-1) and

some idea of who your top scum candidates are.

[Casey]

There's your problem, right there. As far as I know, ice has not been CONFIRMED as a cop. Yet you are treating him as if he is, and you are throwing out scum accusations accordingly. So I'm scum because I don't believe Ice's claim lock, stock, and barrel? The question is, why are you doing this? Are you a misguided townie, or scum?

As I've said before, I'm in the same boat as Bionic and X. I believe Ice and X are town. If I'm misguided, so be it.

With Knight at L-1 and Ice not voting yet, that means that there is a scum (or two scum!) voting for Knight right now.

Here's the WIFOM:

1) Bio is scum. Bio leads the crusade against Knight and we all fall into it because he's so mesmerizing. Doesn't matter if Knight is scum or not, the next day shouldn't be much different than this one.

2) Bio is clean. Honest scumhunting prevails.

I hate WIFOM. Is Knight scum or just a poor townie? Is Fark working with Bio or is Fark just taking Bio's lead?

Blah, blah, blah. I'm starting to ramble.

Still no scumhunting from Knight. VT was the only thing Knight could claim and get away with, so claiming is pointless. He didn't answer any questions posed to him. Although saying that an assassination of Obama is inevitable is rather offensive...

80% sure I want to hammer. I'm still incredibly worried about the possibility of a Fark/Bio scumpair. Would like to hear from Ice, but if the game starts to stall with few posts in the next two days, I'll hammer on Feb 1.

[icemanE]

unvote - vote: KoC

[Haschel Cedricson]

Vote Count as of day's end:

(1)Knight of Cydonia: bionicchop2, X, Farkshinsoup, icemanE

Not Voting: Knight of Cydonia, Casey,
4 votes to lynch.

Knight of Cydonia is quickly strung up and lynched. Hopefully he was a member of the Mafia...

Before you can check to see what KoC's alignment was, a shot rings out. Bionicchop2 falls to the floor dead. Farkshinsoup reveals a small pistol that he's been concealing for the entire game...

"Help us, IcemanE!" X cries. "Fark is definately Mafia! Arrest him!"

"I'd love to," Ice replies, "but I'm not that kind of cop."

"Trembling with fear, Casey asks, "What do you mean you're not that kind of cop?"

Iceman pulls out a gun. "As it turns out, I'm not actually a cop at all..."

Knight of Cydonia,

Vanilla Townie

has been lynched!
The Mafia (

Riceballtail, IcemanE, and Farkshinsoup

) win!

I'm not at my normal computer, so role PMs, night actions, and Mod Thoughts will be posted later tonight.

In the meantime, I know you want to know the sanities, so I'll tell you afatchic was sane, the other cops were both naive.

Congrats to the winners, a thank you for all of you who replaced in, and another thank you for those of you who didn't replace out.

[bionicchop2]

gg ice. My inability to tell cops and scum apart has been killing me. Your play won the game and you did it with me hounding you for 2-3 days.

[icemanE]

Alright!

Thanks bio - honestly I'm shocked I wasn't caught in my bogus cop claim after the whole mixed results thing - I'm also shocked that there were actually 3 cops in the game - I figured fat might be a mafia traitor or an SK or something. Man, that was fun - good game everyone.

I think fark did a really nice job distancing himself from me - in fact I was afraid he was going to get me lynched at some points.

[Farkshinsoup]

*smacks self hard in the head* I'm so dumb. I did not know it was mylo until you said it bio. Sorry Ice. Luckily it didn't hurt us. When I said I had kind of lost track of this game, THAT wasn't a lie.

Nice going Ice! The cop claim was perfect. I was worried that I might get lynched for opposing you!

And Ice was the framer, BTW.

Good game, town. There were lots of times that I thought the jig was up.

Were there any other town power roles?