Mini #717 - Alpha Centauri Smalltown (Game Over!)

[ortolan]

ignore a key fact to arrive to the conclusion that you're obvtown, and that the speculation therefore looks contrived.

key fact? What is this key fact? If you are referring to the fact that if I didn't protect you I would have looked scummy, then I've already said why that simply isn't true- I could have simply claimed I didn't find you town, or alternatively just had the mafia target you for a kill.

[ortolan]

and how did I "miss" it? I am actively arguing with you over it...

[MacavityLock]

I think charter is the SK.

Occam (and everyone) what is your opinion of Ceph? Mine is that he is scum.

Vote Ceph

Why is Ceph scum? Why is ort no longer scum?

I'll post that shortly. ort is no longer mafia because it means either he and RR are both mafia or neither is. I think neither is. I don't know who is the SK, but I don't see ort's play as very SK'ish, I thought he was mafia yesterday.

@charter: Why? Also, what happened to ortolan? He's still near the top of my list, so what changed?

Based on RR's and ort's night actions, they are either BOTH scum or NEITHER is scum.

This is incorrect. There are 3 scum remaining: the SK, the mafia that made the kill, and the mafia that didn't make the kill. RR only cleared ort of being the mafia that made the kill.

Hmmmm, you make a good point. What I said up there isn't true now.

2 important things to note here:
1) charter is aware that the SK has the untrackable NK.
2) He admits his incorrectness on the ort/RR scumbuddy conclusion.

RR/ort would have to be the scumteam and NOT made the kill last night.

Again, not true. It's entirely possible that ort did protect who he says he did but is still scum.

He has to be scum with RR still.

He forgets point 2 from above.

Ort is either scum with RR or not scum at all.

And doesn't allow for the possibility that ort is the SK. Maybe because charter knows that he isn't?

Charter, why did you decide to kill farside?

I was about as sure that her and ort were scum. I also figured I'd have a much easier time today getting Ort lynched, so her.

Oh really?

Farside gets demoted to almost certainly scum, just below Gremwell again. Not looking to start a wagon on farside anymore. MM reading is still the same.

Grem/ort has been my top suspect for like ten pages.

If he's your top suspect, why wouldn't you kill him? Maybe because you found that it would be easier to get another lynch. farside was unlikely to be wagoned today had she survived, while ort almost certainly would have.

Oh wait. I'm an idiot. I just got what you were trying to say. Ort goes back to a prime suspect. I could now lynch ort today as well.

came immediately after

Your insistence that ort has been cleared means you have more information about night kills than the rest of us. In this open setup with you as vig, that means you're scum.

The moment I accuse him of having additional knowledge about NKs, he "figures it out." I think he simply got caught.

If you re-read him, charter comes off as by far the most blood-thirsty player in this game. I don't think it's just a fact of his vig-ness. Everyone who thinks of him as a good townie, I don't particularly disagree. A good SK in this setup will look exactly like a good townie. But the other tells are enough for me.

----

I'm having a really hard time figuring out Empking. He had a couple good scummy actions yesterday (vote jump to Gremwell, the discussion about whether or not redirector-scum should act, general unhelpful behavior [possible common Emp-meta]). Today has been pretty much nonsense. Even more unhelpful, and I'd say specifically detrimental to the town with his harping on DP for no good reason. (I will accept no arguments that refusing to answer a stupid question is scummy.) Problem is that I have absolutely no idea if he's playing bad town or bad scum, though given day 1, I'm thinking scum.

Basically, I'm torn between whether I want to lynch charter, or whether I want to lynch Emp and have charter be the hammer. I'm leaning the latter, but will leave my vote on charter for now.

[Raging Rabbit]

errrrr?

the alternative was not protecting him and night-killing him thus leaving no evidence of me not having protected him to begin with.

Quoted for like the third time. Key fact being ignored. Obviously you couldn't ignore it any longer once I directly pointed at it.

I think it's fairly obvious that me getting killed following you saying you didn't find me town would result in at least some amount of scrunity for you, and since you were a leading lynch candidate yesterday I can see how scum-you would prefer going for the most pro town looking choice. I initially thought you being town is a better explanation, but the above looks more likely since you refuse to admit it's a viable option for scum-you and keep pushing the "I protected RR and am thus obvtown" argument.

I'll review charter later.

[iamausername]

"The entire character of a base and its inhabitants can be absorbed in a quick trip to the Rec Commons. The sweaty
arenas of Fort Legion, the glittering gambling halls of Morgan Bank, the sunny lovers' trysts in Gaia's High Garden, or the somber reading rooms of U.N. Headquarters. Even the feeding bay at the Hive gives stark insight into the sleeping demons of Yang's communal utopia."

-- Comissioner Pravin Lal, "A Social History of Planet"

-=Vote Count #25=-

Empking (2) - Occam, Raging Rabbit
Cephrir (2) - charter, ortolan
charter (2) - Claus, MacavityLock
Claus (1) - Empking

Not Voting (1) - Cephrir

5 to lynch.

CLICK HERE FOR DEADLINE CLOCK.

[Raging Rabbit]

Just pointing out that it's just over 3 days to deadline, so if we want Ceph (or anyone else) to hammer emp we better start piling votes and applying some pressure.

[Empking]

I haven't had ascum read on Charter.

Vote: Cephrir

[MacavityLock]

2 important procedural things:

1) We need a true majority to lynch. If we do run up Emp and our choice for hammerer refuses to, we will end up with a No Lynch. (Unless I'm reading the rules wrong.)

2)

@mod

, due to Claus's recent replacement, I'd like to officially request a deadline extension. I don't see any rules about whether you'll accept that or not, but I think it's worth it to at least ask.

[Cephrir]

Vote: ortolan

I guess I'd hammer Emp if that's the consensus but I don't really think he's scum so I really don't want to.

[ortolan]

And why are you voting me exactly?

[Cephrir]

Is that a serious question?

[ortolan]

normally I expect you to give accompanying reasons for a vote, because otherwise, you know, scum can just vote for whoever they like with no consequences.

[charter]

LYNCH CEPHRIR

Cmon people. I MUCH prefer just lynching Ceph over trying to force him to hammer Emp.

I haven't had ascum read on Charter.

Vote: Cephrir

That's nice. Why is the choice only between myself and Ceph? With no one having more than two votes you don't need to throw an unjustified vote around.

[Occam]

Having Ceph hammer Emp is clearly the best option here. I think Emp is scum and Ceph has played a very scummy game as well. I don't see how that's not the most advantageous route to take, so I'm keeping my vote on Emp.

[Occam]

Hmm. But I suppose the problem is, as Mac pointed out, that really, all Ceph has to do to avoid having to hammer Emp is lurk for the next couple of days, unless we get a deadline extension. I will have enough time to monitor this game over the next two days and see how things pan out - if we get the extension I advocate my plan, if not we might have to quickly rethink it.

[charter]

2 important things to note here:
1) charter is aware that the SK has the untrackable NK.
2) He admits his incorrectness on the ort/RR scumbuddy conclusion.

1) That info is in the second post
2) How is me admitting a mistake make me a SK?

And doesn't allow for the possibility that ort is the SK. Maybe because charter knows that he isn't?

Cause you can't use night actions to find the SK.

If he's your top suspect, why wouldn't you kill him? Maybe because you found that it would be easier to get another lynch. farside was unlikely to be wagoned today had she survived, while ort almost certainly would have.

Yes, this is almost exactly what I said, there's no maybe's about it.

If you re-read him, charter comes off as by far the most blood-thirsty player in this game. I don't think it's just a fact of his vig-ness. Everyone who thinks of him as a good townie, I don't particularly disagree. A good SK in this setup will look exactly like a good townie. But the other tells are enough for me.

Really? I've had like four or five suspects. There's four scum.

Basically, I'm torn between whether I want to lynch charter, or whether I want to lynch Emp and have charter be the hammer. I'm leaning the latter, but will leave my vote on charter for now.

Where does Ceph fit in?

Your thinking that I'm the SK is based largely off of flawed reasoning.

[ortolan]

I think ML's case for charter being the SK is rather weak. I'm not saying charter couldn't be the SK, but I think those things ML put forward are null-tells rather than SK-tells

[iamausername]

Claus replaced in a full week before the deadline, which I think is plenty of time to ingratiate himself, so I will not be extending the deadline at this time.

[Empking]

LYNCH CEPHRIR

Cmon people. I MUCH prefer just lynching Ceph over trying to force him to hammer Emp.

I haven't had ascum read on Charter.

Vote: Cephrir

That's nice. Why is the choice only between myself and Ceph? With no one having more than two votes you don't need to throw an unjustified vote around.

Its almost DeadLine.

[MacavityLock]

Time for some charter-style case:

FACT - charter was and is fully aware of the SK being untrackable.
FACT - charter made the claim many times that "Ort is either scum with RR or not scum at all."
CONCLUSION - charter knows that Ort is not the SK.

FACT - At the end of Day 1, charter's top scum suspect was Grem/ort. Top, not tied with farside.
FACT - charter vigged his supposed 2nd suspect.
FACT - At the start of Day 2, charter claimed that farside was tied with Grem/ort at the top of his list.
CONCLUSION - charter is making excuses for a bad vig. This bad vig also gives many people an obvious Day 2 lynch target.
OPINION - charter's case on farside wasn't all that compelling to begin with.

@ort or anybody - What SK tells are you looking for? Have you found any?

@charter - I won't be voting Ceph just yet, though I'd prefer his lynch to No Lynch. I'm re-reading your iso post 73 (your case on Ceph). Some of it is good, some of it is weak. More in favor of the Emp lynch, though I'm not psyched about getting consensus on how to do this with a pretty close deadline. charter, would you be willing to vig Emp tonight?

[Cephrir]

LYNCH CEPHRIR

Cmon people. I MUCH prefer just lynching Ceph over trying to force him to hammer Emp.

Fortunately you aren't the entire town. You haven't really addressed why you don't accept my defense, you're just glossing over it and attacking me anyway. And I still don't get why you won't even consider ort. I'm beginning to wonder if you could be scumbuddies even though I thought you were town because you were after him strongly yesterday, vigged your second suspect instead of him, and now that Oman died ort has magically vanished from your suspects.

Vote: charter

because I'm being forced to choose between him and Empking, who I believe to be town.

Hmm. But I suppose the problem is, as Mac pointed out, that really, all Ceph has to do to avoid having to hammer Emp is lurk for the next couple of days, unless we get a deadline extension. I will have enough time to monitor this game over the next two days and see how things pan out - if we get the extension I advocate my plan, if not we might have to quickly rethink it.

Yes, but I would only do that if I were scum. And I'm not, so I won't but if I did then I'd have outted myself anyway.

[Cephrir]

Unvote, Vote charter

I would rather lynch ort still but I just don't think it'll happen. And if my theory is correct I suppose a vig is more dangerous.

[Raging Rabbit]

Forcing a hammer on emp is very unlikely to work by now.

Unvote, vote Cephrir

. That's L-1, and therefore hammertime. Ceph is a way better lynch than charter, I can see some merit in ML's SK case on charter but Ceph is loads scummier and can be either SK or (more likely) mafia.

[Cephrir]

I love how everyone just ignores my defenses. Just like in 698. Ugh.

Anyway, I think I'm about to set a record for most consecutive games lynched by day three. Look at ort/charter after I die, GL.

[Raging Rabbit]

The only line of defense I see is "don't lynch me today, you need me to investigate!"