Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Ectomancer]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

This statement looks backward.

It isn't the random stage, it isn't even day 1. We don't need to invent a wagon simply to have 2 of them.

[Adel]

completed mini-normals on the most recent page of Little Italy. Only counting finished games, not counting Open games or Minivitationals

nevermind. It looks like my meta on that was either out of date, or never was valid.

I was expecting to see a lot more games like http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8823
and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 03#1310403
and
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9225
and
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=200
and
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 14#1270214

5 games out of 25 isn't very many.

[Korts]

I'm "pushing it"?

That's the impression I got.

[Adel]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

This statement looks backward.

It isn't the random stage, it isn't even day 1. We don't need to invent a wagon simply to have 2 of them.

the town isn't going to learn a single thing from my lynch otherwise. There will just be 5 players sitting around saying "oh well, I thought she was scum. What now?"

[Ectomancer]

You're not making sense to me anymore to be quite honest. How am I supposed to be learning anything about you after you die, (assuming a town Adel) when what you say doesn't hold water, and when I criticize the case, you tell me to just accept it because we need 2 wagons?

[Adel]

You're not making sense to me anymore to be quite honest. How am I supposed to be learning anything about you after you die, (assuming a town Adel) when what you say doesn't hold water, and when I criticize the case, you tell me to just accept it because we need 2 wagons?

what did I say that doesn't hold water? Using his character's history of replacement in this game as a mild town-tell for afatchic while voting for ThAdmiral?

If you are going to lynch me today I would much rather my lynch produced useful information, but the way it is going there isn't going to be much information to illuminate the alignments of other players.

[Adel]

this game is seriously cracking me up.

"OMG she got all of us suspicious of Tubby and then hammered him when it looked like IP was going to be the lynch -- OBVIOUS SCUM!"

and y'all can't even find a case against anyone besides me, and won't pay attention to one when I present one.

lol, and good luck.

if this is the way it is going to be (not considering alternative to me), you are pobably better off lynching me sooner rather than later, so the game won't stall out too badly, and townies will have more of a chance to rememember what other townies said earlier.

...

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

[Korts]

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice. This day has drawn on long enough.

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

You can always count on me

[TDC]

Vote Count

Adel (1): Korts
ThAdmiral (1): Adel

Not voting (5): Ectomancer, insanepenguin02, Kison, afatchic, ThAdmiral

[Adel]

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice. This day has drawn on long enough.

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

You can always count on me

Korts needs company on my wagon. Any volunteers?

[Adel]

Rage - believe his claim, so town.

Again, I'll ask this: do you believe that he is a

tracker

? The reason I ask this is because the front page clearly indicates that the tracker can be a scum role. So if you merely believe the claim, I must ask why you believe he is town as a result of it.

I believe he is the town tracker.

My question is: due to metagaming, would adel-scum feel the need to do so much pro-town activity so as not to be obviously scum, or could adel-scum just not contribute as much and get away with it?

my last game as scum was Mature Mafia

IMHO I lurked through that game, or active lurking anyways, I always made sure that I was more active than 1/3rd of the other players.

I felt like I could get away with it against a cast of veteran players that included: DrippingGoofball, Talitha, zu_Faul, Pooky, mathcam, Glork, elvis_knits, Macros, Axelrod, Phoebus, & Werebear.

Check out my wiki for the rest of my games as scum. They are all there.

In this case I am far more inclined to think you are town.

you probably shouldn't be. In some games I am really active as scum. Look at SMM2 and Newbie 540 (links on my wiki page) for examples of where I was just about the most active player in the game as scum. My activity level probably isn't a good determinant for my alignment.

@ThAdmiral: do you recall ever playing in a game where I was scum before?

ThAdmiral, why do you draw the conclusion that since Rage's claim is believable, his alignment must be town also? Or is the conclusion of his alignment independent of his claim?

I believe he is town since his claim lead to the lynch of a mafiate.

@ThAdmiral: do you recall ever playing in a game where I was scum before?

Yes. One of the first games I played on this site actually. Mini 548. Mastermind of sin was playing and pretty much won the game himself.
Your style was similar there (in that you did the big colorful graph thing and were quite active), however you seemed to be targeting lurkers more and I seem to remember you getting quite flustered when attacked.

I think this exchange is interesting, and may deserve some attention.

[ThAdmiral]

Back.

I don't think using whether someone has been replaced as a town tell is a good idea. It is a very unreliable tell at best.

@ Adel: if you had to choose out of ip and afatchic who would you choose?
also
why do you think kison is town?

[Adel]

remember, before he linked me to tubby, Korts linked me to someone else:

Adel- BoW may have been the scummiest play i have ever read through. he def. ranks up in the top 3 or 5. and reading through i was astounded he wasn't lynched a few pages into day 1. however if you look at it assuming he is town, i believe there is a very logical explanation, which i expect to hear from Adel later in the game. If i don't hear the explanation i am waiting for, i may be inclined to vote him based on how badly BoW played, but right now i think he is a townie.

This paragraph seems particularly wishy-washy, even for you, afatchic. You first state that Adel's predecessor is definitely scummy, then you assume he's town, then you demand an explanation from Adel; and finally you conclude that right now she's probably a townie. I sense a connection; such uncertainty makes me think of a partnership where you can't decide whether to bus, distance or defend.

so ecto are you saying adel is scum??

cause i tried that on one of my re-reads and then dropped it cause all i found is WIFOM arguments that weren't pro town,

and if somone claims to have the gun would you then want rage to track that person to confirm that they indeed shot that person?

what if there are two guns out there??

i mean if we are playin what if letts throw it all out there right?

Note: tubby is defending Adel. If tubby flips scum, Adel has a slightly higher chance of being scum herself.

tubby, have you finished the case on me and Rage yet?

he is the first time Korts linked me to tubby.

who has actually done some research over there, and what were your conclusions?

Unfortunately I haven't had much time or patience for that. Nevertheless, tubby has more than enough on him for a lynch IMO.

Why vote IP when as far as I gathered your top suspect is tubby?

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

1. In order:
   1. Rage
   2. Adel
2. Rage

so Korts was still more suspicious of Rage than me at this point, even after Rage had claimed tracker.
Rememebr that Korts stayed on the Rage wagon longer than others, and voted for tubby only after Kison, Ecto, IP and I did, and then only once Ecto and IP and I had unvoted. tubby only had one vote when Korts placed a second vote on him at 681.

Kison being on both wagons is a very minor point.

insanepenguin's argument that he couldn't have voted darkdude if he was scum is either extremely thick-headed or scum being at a loss as to how to react to speculation (which makes him thick-headed to a lesser extent). IP, why did you consider the implied connection between you and darkdude something which you had to reply to, other than acknowledging the theory?

The lessening of pressure on tubby is a sad thing; unfortunately I haven't had the time to go through his games, so I have nothing new on him.

I also notice my vote is still on Rage, who I think answered the case on him pretty well. Let's correct that.

unvote, vote: tubby

The reasons: tubby's appeal to role-specific meta; his passive role in scumhunting; frequent bandwagon hopping on the most popular wagons and application of general pressure wherever the most people are turning.

and tubby fired off a quick reply in 682

so are you trying to relieve pressure from your partner IP there korts or what?

it seems like an easy thing to do since i am a popular target and people would surely jump back on.

but you cleverly give yourself an out cause you suspect him of being thick headed and kinda scummy?

after 682 Korts and tubby exchange some brief words over ad hom. attacks.

because i am working a post with a case on you as well as ip, but i felt your post needed attention, since thats what i got when i read it

vote:tubby

I want to see this alleged case of his.

Note that tubby never posted his alleged case on Korts.
and then IP jumped aboard the wagon, setting Korts at lynch -1 in post 692.

For one, you have been in this game from the first day so should have no reason not to follow the game play. But it seems that as time as gone by, you have been separating yourself more and more from the game, not being as analytical as you were before, etc. This makes me wonder why. I guess that I shouldn’t say that I think it is scummy it is just interesting. Interesting because with less analysis and activity, you start to lose that pro-town feel that you are looking out for the best of the town. I wish I could get more here but I’m having trouble reading into you much more than that…

I've said this multiple times. I have exams in January and studying takes up the majority of my time; and the overnight walls of text in this game make it a hard read. I'm sorry if my activity is lacking, and I will correct that once I'm through with the exams (if I don't have to go again, the last one's on jan. 7th)

is this the post of a scumbuddy letting his partner know that "I'm bussing you, and I'm going to be lurking, so please don't freak out that my vote is on you"?

Tubmeister, what happened to this :

sorry catching up, i appologize for my absence sick kids,

thing is owe, case on IP and case on Korts _ probably post by tonite

i completely lost track of it,

was tubby planning on building a case against his scumbuddy and one Other player? Did he decide to bail on that idea? Why didn't he ever present his case?
The most simple answer I can think of is that OP is his partner, and the game totally looked lost.

remember this?

{large graphics removed}

and the way that insaneP joined the rage and tubby wagons without what I consider to be good reasons, leads me to suspect that he is more likely to be scum than tubby.

Hmm. Adel makes a fair point. But after the implied connection between tubby and Adel, I'd really like to see tubby lynched; if he does flip scum, the connection is now slightly more strongly implied.

I'm confident enough of Adelscum's skills to presume she wouldn't outright defend tubby, and she did vote him to L-1 recently; but I also think Adelscum wouldn't turn down the opportunity to lynch someone else over an incriminated partner, if she thinks she can make a strong enough case. And IP is the perfect target in case of a tubby-Adel scumteam.

hmmm.... after this post I hammered tubby as soon as afatchic placed tubby at lynch -1

the next day...

First off, I support massclaiming tomorrow rather than today. It's pretty clear we're not in lylo yet.

Second, Adel is suspicious for suggesting two godfathers. Such a setup would render any cop practically useless, and since we know there was one cop at least, I'm more than prepared to rule out such a thing. I get the feeling you're just trying to avoid narrowing the field of suspicion down; Ecto is near-confirmed at this point.

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

You're nearly confirmed, but I wouldn't call you 100% confirmed yet. There's some chance of a 4-player scumgroup, with you and ThAdmiral as scum, however unlikely.

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

or a godfather.

Pushing this theory is not constructive. It is more than unlikely that there would be two godfathers.

Vig kill of Rage, but no scum kill would indicate another town role of roleblocker or protector. Would it really be best to mass claim in that situation?

Yes, we would have PR + who he protected as confirmed innocents.

Unless enough of their confirmed innocents are dead to make claiming unprofitable. If they haven't claimed yet, they shouldn't now.

As for Adel and tubby's previous interactions; if the connection that was implied by tubby's defense of Adel was one-sided, I would doubt my read and have to consider that tubby may have been tying himself to town, but Adel's voting pattern late into yesterday very much implies half-hearted support of the tubby-wagon (i.e. distancing/bussing). She also started pressuring IP when tubby came alarmingly close to the lynch threshold; there's no real doubt in my mind about her.

vote: Adel

I think that any theory that has be as scum needs to explain:
1. why I am so active (both in posting and in voting), and drawing so much attention to myself
2. why I built the wagon on tubby
3. why I hammered tubby.

If there are any other reasons anyone has for thinking I am scum, please let me know, so I can address them.

[Adel]

Back.

I don't think using whether someone has been replaced as a town tell is a good idea. It is a very unreliable tell at best.

I attempted to prove that it was, and failed. I now agree.

@ Adel: if you had to choose out of ip and afatchic who would you choose?
also
why do you think kison is town?

I keep on flip flopping. Right now IP. I had Kison in the town category because of the absence of alarming scumtells, his early vote on tubby, and how many times he was replaced. Whenever I start to suspect that he is lurking, I see that his activity level in this game remains about the same compared to his activity in other parts of this site.

[Adel]

Whenever I start to suspect that he is lurking, I see that his activity level in this game remains about the same compared to his activity in other parts of this site.

which is totally not true for afatchic, but is true for everyone else.

check it out: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=afatchic

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... epenguin02
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Kison
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Korts
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... =ThAdmiral
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... uthor=Adel
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Ectomancer

unvote, vote: afatchic

[Adel]

better yet, proof that afatchic is not overwhelmed by his other games: from the replacements thread:

[mrow]

Requested

[col]

Name/Type/Flavor

[col]

Moderator

[col]

Length

[col]

Notes

January 21st

[col]

Mini 727 - Mafia in Standardville

[col]

LlamaFluff

[col]

Day 1, 14 pages

[col]

Replacing BSG, active group of players. Automatic three week deadlines, day one deadline January 25th.

Found thanks to afatchic

with a fairly recent join date and just under 10 posts per day posting average, his lack of activity in this game must be alignment based.

[Kison]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

Speaking for myself, I am not sold on anything. Mature Mafia was a good enough example to cause me to rethink, especially after considering the distinction between the example I pulled up earlier and the (theoretical) tubby216 bus, mainly there being a far higher risk factor involved with pulling a quick tubby bus. I'm not really sure I buy into the argument that your hammer was as clearing as you seem to indicate, because by that point, Korts and I had already been on your case for ditching the wagon. If I was scum and in that situation I know I'd be tempted to cave in. The key moments I'm considering are:

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

why do you think kison is town?

...Speaking of which, didn't you think I was scum just yesterday, ThAdmiral?

[Adel]

which is totally not true for afatchic, but is true for everyone else.

check it out: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=afatchic

fail.

I didn't bother to look at page two+, so all that looking at his posts really proves is that he hasn't posted in this game much for almost a week.

unvote

[Ectomancer]

Relax Adel. Drama doesnt become you. At least you recovered right away. The Korts thing is detailed and plausible.
I'm in my listen to everybody stage, and if you are silent, I hear that too.
I don't want to stir things too much, and Adel, I need you to power down and just stare meaningfully at someone for awhile.
I want to hear wild theories from everyone else too. Please don't make me prod you personally, there aren't that many of us left.

[Adel]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

[Adel]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

[Kison]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

Ditching in general, but the one I pointed out yesterday(the one for 'unstated reasons') was the one that caught my eye and gave me a deja vu. You say that creating an alternative wagon is always a good idea - is this something you typically do as town?

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

Do you think that counting only vanilla VS counting

all

forms of mafia(including those with roles) will sway the results?

[Kison]

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice.

This day has drawn on long enough.

I really beg to differ. In fact, I'd really like to hear lots more from ThAdmiral and afatchic. Why are you in such a hurry?

[afatchic]

Whenever I start to suspect that he is lurking, I see that his activity level in this game remains about the same compared to his activity in other parts of this site.

which is totally not true for afatchic, but is true for everyone else.

check it out: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=afatchic

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... epenguin02
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Kison
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Korts
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... =ThAdmiral
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... uthor=Adel
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Ectomancer

unvote, vote: afatchic

You really didn't have to go through all that trouble, i would have gladly told you i have become extremely bored with this game. normally i am extremely active, as you can see by my other games, but this one is just boring me because the conversation just seems to be going around in circles, and is more about meta crap then about actual in game things that have happened.

Right now my LOS looks something like this...
Korts
Adel
ThAd.
IP
Kison

I would say Korts seems somewhat scummy, while Adel and ThAd. are both in the neutral zone still, and i believe IP and Kison are most likely town.

[Adel]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

Ditching in general, but the one I pointed out yesterday(the one for 'unstated reasons') was the one that caught my eye and gave me a deja vu. You say that creating an alternative wagon is always a good idea - is this something you typically do as town?

Ecto's case against IP and my own unease about how quickly IP placed tubby at L-1 without warning were the unstated reasons.

I was about to that that it is something that I typically do, but I don't know if I can prove it. It is something I've been aware for for a while, but it usually isn't very difficult for me to make sure there are two competing wagons (when I am town, allowing a lack of competing wagons in a day was a scumtell of mine until right now).

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

Do you think that counting only vanilla VS counting

all

forms of mafia(including those with roles) will sway the results?

hmmm... actually I think vanilla good vs. vanilla townie would be the best basis of comparison. The danger is that you would have to include so many games that changes in the meta get ironed out. Generally you probably have about 1.5 vanilla goons in each 12-player mininormal, and a good sample size would be ~60, so that would be all of the 12-player mini-normals on the two most recent pages of little Italy. Plotting each game's (townie replacement rate) and (vanilla goon replacement rate) on a chart against game number would also give a general idea of how the meta is changing with time. We can estimate that the current meta is projected about two months further along the rolling average line, and get testable predictions from the model.