Mini #717 - Alpha Centauri Smalltown (Game Over!)

[Cephrir]

If you're thinking what I think you migh be, it's not a good idea to bring it up I suppose. But some of your wording seems weird if you're referring to what I'm thinking of, so maybe I'm wrong.

[Raging Rabbit]

Starting a quick reread now.

[iamausername]

"War is war; destruction is destruction. You think this is obvious. But war is not destruction, it is victory. To achieve victory, simply appear to give the opponent what he wants and he will go away, or join you in your quest for additional power."

-- Datatech Sinder Roze, "Information Burns"

-=Vote Count #19=-

Empking (2) - Occam, Raging Rabbit
Drunken Piper (1) - Empking
Cephrir (1) - charter

Not Voting (4) - Cephrir, Drunken Piper, MacavityLock, ortolan

5 to lynch.

[ortolan]

all I will say at this stage is that I'm extremely interested to hear your idea, ML, if indeed you decide to voice it.

Withholding my other opinions at this stage.

[Raging Rabbit]

Got interrupted, only had time to skim the later parts. Some stuff that stood out:

Vote: MacavityLock

- Roleblocker.

Interesting. Why the roleblocker, emp?

Occam is scared, which is fair. But srsly way too many people on this for it to be a wagon on scum early.

Vote: Cephrir

You don't say you're jumping on the largest bandwagon for no reason. You're doing it for a reason.

His first serious vote of the game. Could be distancing, but the reasoning is solid so maybe he could just be going for a comfortable attack on a townie that did something scummy.

I don't want to put the number of votes you have too high, but I wish I could vote for you: Cephrir

This definitely smells like scumbuddies.

I refuse to believe occum's self vote as anything more that what it usually is: a null tell. Its interesting, but not able to be analysed right now.

you see there are too many variables to deal with here. I can give you one scum-occum for every town-occum scenario you give me. And one town-occum for every scum given to me.

We'll look back on it later, especially if occum is scum.

Interesting how he sticks his neck out so much to protect Occam. Usually I'd say it's too bold a move for them to be scum together, but I wouldn't put it past Oman.

If it was a bandwagon vote, why would I word it as though I hadn't noticed the other votes? When I finished what I was saying and decided to random vote, I just looked up and his was the first name I saw. Don't get why it's being assumed that I'm lying.

Occam's selfvote is weird, there's not much else to say about it. I do think it's a slight scumtell, there's no protown reason to pull shenanigans like that, ever, but he seemed to think it made sense.

Vote: Oman

for assuming that I'm lying for no apparent reason, and for not finding Occam at least a bit shady after that exchange.

This post is very unconvincing and his reasoning for voting Oman is a stretch. Definitely leaning towards distancing now.

As Cephrr is only on three.

Unvote

Vote: Cephrir

Now when things look safer, I can vote my scumbuddy...

69 - There are many out there that would call Occam -> Farside an OMGUS vote, but I am seeing it more and more like distancing. It just screams "look while I rationalise this vote". Not to mention the "if you feel I should be voted out etc." looks like getting the wagon to build to allow someone to victimise people. Of course, on the Hanlon side of things (and I've just been rereading games I've played that makes me think that running with Hanlon is a good thing) he looks like a frustrated townie, backed up by the caps at the top.


95 - Farside hits me with more of these weird extrapolations about "so cephrir wasn't random voting, that means you don't believe Occam had a knee jerk reaction" and all this. Basically I find farside is trying to push the conversation back to Occam from Cephrir. That means that Occamscum and farsidescum are now less liklely than before, because farsidescum was more likely to let Occamscum go there to go after Cephrir town. Of course Cephrir scum makes Farsidescum much more likely.

101 - Cephrir OMGUSes me. Well done.

First he links farside to Occam, then he does a doubletake and links her to Ceph instead. Then the odd comment on Ceph's OMGUS. Ceph's likely a scumbuddy.

192 - Alignments aside (a dangerous idea): FUCK YEAH! This is an awesome post in a pool of wishy crap.

If Occam is scum I'm looking at:

• Empking
• Monekyman

192 is a response to farside by Occam. The list of possible buddies for Occam that has nothing to do with the rest of his conclusions implies they're scumbuddies, but writing "alignments aside" is resp to a scumbuddy is one hell of a gutsy move. I don't know what to think here.

My bad, along with RR's points I'm happy to declare myself wrong here that you two do not seem like scumbuddies right now.

This could be read as "OK, now that MM looks like he's gonna be the lynch, I see no further point connecting him to my buddy". That seems to straightforward though, I'm starting to feel that Oman is

trying

to conncet himself to Occam.

Unvote

Vote; Gremwell

Though I still think MM is scummy, rereading the thread, I feel that Gremwell's plan, the famous "It wasn't scummy, it was a gambit" and the "I'll wait to see other's options" puts her/him as scummier.

Abandons suspicion of Ceph in favor of second strongest wagon. Very possibly wanted to be able to continue his line of thinking d2 and chase a townie rather than a buddy.

If I wasn't sick of this day and almost sure that MM was scum, I'd be jumping on Cephrir. Tomorrow. lacking a better target through night choices, I'm jumping on him.

I'm still thinking bussing.



So... Oman's connected to Ceph and acting really weird about Occam, Ceph's connected to emp, emp is the scummiest player followed by Ceph. Lets have Ceph hammer emp and bathe in the mafia's blood.

Occam's early posts give me an odd vibe upon rereading, his attack on BP in specific could be an SK tell. I'm currently leaning towards his connection with Oman being contrived, which means he probably isn't mafia, but I'm admittedly still confused about that.

I have no real read on DP. Kinda afraid he's the SK.

ML, ort and charter I think are town.

[Occam]

I got the same impression, that for whatever reason he was trying to connect himself to me. It didn't make any sense particularly because he was in no danger of being killed. I think I can agree that emp and ceph are possible partners - I looked at Oman but I didn't notice the connections between ceph and emp.

[Empking's Alt]

Emp: Why did you ask a useless question and then refuse to answer anything directed towards you? Do you find asking useless questions and then refusing to answer anything directed towards you scummy?

Everyone: How do people feel about "Lynch All Liars"? I have a tiny voice in the back of my head suggesting that someone may have lied about their night action, though purely for game theoretical reasons, not for any posts this person made or other game-specific knowledge. I'm also slightly worried that it is possibly beneficial for that person to have lied both as scum and as town. Still, I kind of feel like LAL is generally a good plan, and want to get other opinions.

If people agree to it, and said person doesn't admit to a lie, I will likely propose a small plan for some of tonights' actions.

LAL= Bad (in practise)

For your questions. Wasn't useless I managed to see how DP reacted. (By dodging it.)

No I don't.

I thought we should take about the redirector because it is a powerful scum role.

[Raging Rabbit]

[quote=Occam"]I got the same impression, that for whatever reason he was trying to connect himself to me. It didn't make any sense particularly because he was in no danger of being killed. [/quote]

Good scum tend to plant red herrings just in case.


No idea what ML's on about. I don't think with should automatically LAL if that lie is good play for both town and scum, but I have to know what he's talking about to actually make up my mind there.

[MacavityLock]

Occam, are you planning on Commuting tonight? If you'd rather not answer, that's understandable, but if you won't answer please say why you won't.

Still waiting on answers from charter: Why did you vig at all last night? Do you think you'll vig tonight?

As for Empking, your question was put out there to be dodged. No one would/should ever take your question seriously. Why did you refuse to answer questions posed to you?

[Empking]

RR; I picked RB because it was the most anti-town role.

I didn't want to let DP dodge questions.

[charter]

Charter, why did you decide to kill farside?

I was about as sure that her and ort were scum. I also figured I'd have a much easier time today getting Ort lynched, so her.

Why did you kill at all last night?

I thought farside to be mafia.

Occam (and everyone) what is your opinion of Ceph? Mine is that he is scum.

Vote Ceph

Why is Ceph scum? Why is ort no longer scum?

I'll post that shortly. ort is no longer mafia because it means either he and RR are both mafia or neither is. I think neither is. I don't know who is the SK, but I don't see ort's play as very SK'ish, I thought he was mafia yesterday.

@charter: Why? Also, what happened to ortolan? He's still near the top of my list, so what changed?

Based on RR's and ort's night actions, they are either BOTH scum or NEITHER is scum.

This is incorrect. There are 3 scum remaining: the SK, the mafia that made the kill, and the mafia that didn't make the kill. RR only cleared ort of being the mafia that made the kill.

Hmmmm, you make a good point. What I said up there isn't true now.

You also haven't answered my question as to why you vigged at all. Actually, another question: Do you think you'll vig tonight?

I thought farside was scum. I think it's premature to decide if I'll vig tonight right now. Depends a lot on who gets lynched and their alignment.

Everyone: How do people feel about "Lynch All Liars"? I have a tiny voice in the back of my head suggesting that someone may have lied about their night action, though purely for game theoretical reasons, not for any posts this person made or other game-specific knowledge. I'm also slightly worried that it is possibly beneficial for that person to have lied both as scum and as town. Still, I kind of feel like LAL is generally a good plan, and want to get other opinions.

I despise LAL. It's 100% not true.

So... Oman's connected to Ceph and acting really weird about Occam, Ceph's connected to emp, emp is the scummiest player followed by Ceph. Lets have Ceph hammer emp and bathe in the mafia's blood.

I don't think that Emp is necessarily mafia (at least not as much as others) but if Emp is going to get lynched, I do vote Ceph does it.

659- Lets not start arguing now about roles being anti town. That was fine in the beginning, but now it's just going to cause headaches.

[Raging Rabbit]

Occam, are you planning on Commuting tonight? If you'd rather not answer, that's understandable, but if you won't answer please say why you won't.

Still waiting on answers from charter: Why did you vig at all last night? Do you think you'll vig tonight?

As for Empking, your question was put out there to be dodged. No one would/should ever take your question seriously. Why did you refuse to answer questions posed to you?

Oh. That's by no means cause for a lynching, and I see no pro town reason for you to want to know the answer to that.

FOS ML

.

[MacavityLock]

Oh. That's by no means cause for a lynching, and I see no pro town reason for you to want to know the answer to that.

FOS ML

.

As I said, my plan doesn't end with a liar-lynch, but it could end up in a liar-death.

Fine, I'll just put it out there now. This has more to do with my distrust of charter than of anything about Occam. Given that we could have up to 5 deaths over the course of today/tonight, I don't want charter to get his vig-kill. (Potential for 5 deaths comes from lynching Emp-saint, which I'm not against.) Those deaths could easily end the game with a town loss. So, my plan was to effectively neuter his vigging by directing his kill towards Occam-commuter.

Very simply this comes down to me not trusting charter with his vig, and this plan failing if Occam actually lied about not commuting yesterday, which I could see both scum or town doing. So, if we get Occam's sign-off, does anyone see a major problem with this plan?

[Empking]

[
659- Lets not start arguing now about roles being anti town. That was fine in the beginning, but now it's just going to cause headaches.

You dshould be claming RR for asking about it.

[charter]

ML, why do we need Occam to prevent me from vigging, why don't you do it?

[Occam]

Hmm. It's a reasonable plan but only if you're hoping to catch a liar, not scum. LAL, IMO, is not safe or particularly effective. Catching liars and catching scum are two different things.

[Cephrir]

This post is very unconvincing and his reasoning for voting Oman is a stretch. Definitely leaning towards distancing now.

Pff. I just couldn't believe no one was believing that I hadn't intended to bandwagon, because at the time I hadn't yet realized that the truth is a bit hard to believe in this instance. I thought his vote for me was one of the worse ones and the point I made about his attitude towards Occam made him the best vote for me at the time. Basically what you're saying is that I'm scummy for choosing correctly.

I can't answer for others' comments but I can say that effectively lynching both Emp and myself today based on connections between us is stupid. Firstly, you can't really label two players as probable scumbuddies until one of them is dead. I think there's a decent chance Emp is town, but if he's not then, since all your evidence that I'm scum with Emp is based on connections from him to me and not vice versa, it's equally possible that he's scum and is trying to make me look like his buddy. Normally I'd say that Emp isn't a good enough player to come up with something like that, but a lot of those posts do look to me like precisely that.

@ML's plan: well, I did figure out most of it (as the commuter is the only role with an incentive to lie as town). I have to agree with charter that you may as well just roleblock him, if you find it necessary.

[Drunken Piper]

just dropping by to say,
no time to add anything today..

[MacavityLock]

ML, why do we need Occam to prevent me from vigging, why don't you do it?

Because maybe my RB will be better used elsewhere. I just wanted to get the idea out there, and if people aren't for it, that's fine.

[charter]

Your plan doesn't make sense. It all stems from YOU not trusting me. I see no reason why the town should support your idea unless they all don't trust me either. You're trying to plan out someone's night action, why should the town get behind that when they don't know your alignment?
My argument is pretty much the same as yesterday when people wanted to plan out night actions. It still isn't a good idea.

[Occam]

You're trying to plan out someone's night action, why should the town get behind that when they don't know your alignment?

A fair point.

I also agree that planning night actions out loud is not a good course of action.

Suggestions

are certainly welcome but straightforward direction, or worse, mass-claim of planned actions, is not cool.

[Occam]

Plus, as far as night actions are concerned I find that

lying

about them can be

protown

, so that's another gaping hole in LAL. Lying about claims is one thing, but lying about night actions can go either way, without a doubt. The entire point is to keep the scum as uninformed as possible, because they already know more than the town, and telling them what we're going to do can only hurt.

[ortolan]

Oh. That's by no means cause for a lynching, and I see no pro town reason for you to want to know the answer to that.

FOS ML

.

As I said, my plan doesn't end with a liar-lynch, but it could end up in a liar-death.

Fine, I'll just put it out there now. This has more to do with my distrust of charter than of anything about Occam. Given that we could have up to 5 deaths over the course of today/tonight, I don't want charter to get his vig-kill. (Potential for 5 deaths comes from lynching Emp-saint, which I'm not against.) Those deaths could easily end the game with a town loss. So, my plan was to effectively neuter his vigging by directing his kill towards Occam-commuter.

Very simply this comes down to me not trusting charter with his vig, and this plan failing if Occam actually lied about not commuting yesterday, which I could see both scum or town doing. So, if we get Occam's sign-off, does anyone see a major problem with this plan?

It's a terrible plan. If I was commuter-town I would have absolutely no qualms with lying about having commuted. Doing so only makes scum's job harder. This is especially the case when all three kills (mafia, SK, vig) were accounted for last night anyway, so Occam telling the truth about whether or not he commuted couldn't give us any extra info anyhow (whereas it might if for example there was an unaccounted for kill and we wanted to work out whether it was directed @ him or prevented by some other method).

I am thinking charter is town.

I wondered why he targeted farside instead of me, also. However I find the fact he said this indicative of him being town:

Charter, why did you decide to kill farside?

I was about as sure that her and ort were scum. I also figured I'd have a much easier time today getting Ort lynched, so her.

This is something of a scummy thing to admit to i.e. "the reason I didn't vig someone was because I thought I could simply convince the town to lynch them" (i.e. it's the same thought process scum might go through). However because he openly and unashamedly admitted this as his reasoning I'm inclined he's not trying to cover up for his actions as scum would.

@charter: Why? Also, what happened to ortolan? He's still near the top of my list, so what changed?

This reads as both lazy and scummy to me- "why aren't you still bandwagoning who I want you to?" But he doesn't give any reasons for why I am scummy, simply asks charter why he no longer finds me scummy. Surely the onus of proof is on the accuser? I will ask you now Cephrir, what about me is still or newly scummy in light of both old and recent events and discussion?

I can't answer for others' comments but I can say that effectively lynching both Emp and myself today based on connections between us is stupid. Firstly, you can't really label two players as probable scumbuddies until one of them is dead. I think there's a decent chance Emp is town, but if he's not then, since all your evidence that I'm scum with Emp is based on connections from him to me and not vice versa, it's equally possible that he's scum and is trying to make me look like his buddy. Normally I'd say that Emp isn't a good enough player to come up with something like that, but a lot of those posts do look to me like precisely that.

This reads like you're trying to both defend and bus Empking at once. You say he's likely town, but that if he is scum he's deliberately associating himself with you to implicate you if he flips scum, but in fact you doubt he's intelligent enough to try to do this anyway. Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it too- you're trying to discourage an Empking lynch but if one does occur you want to be dissociated from him.

Cephrir, do you have anything more to say about Empking?

Empking, do you want to say anything about Cephrir in light of his recent posts?

ML, what do you think of both of them?

[MacavityLock]

Your plan doesn't make sense. It all stems from YOU not trusting me. I see no reason why the town should support your idea unless they all don't trust me either.

Yes, exactly. Sounds like others do trust you, so there we go.

If I was commuter-town I would have absolutely no qualms with lying about having commuted.

This is why I specifically asked for Occam's sign-off on the plan.

ML, what do you think of both of them?

Emp remains near or at the top of my scumlist, though barring me being JKed or Emp being one of the redirecteds, my RB has semi-cleared him of being the SK and the mafia that made the kill.

As for Ceph, there are certainly a couple things that I don't like, but I need to do a re-read to decide for sure. Given LA/No Access, that won't come for a little while.

[Empking]

Cephrir's recent posts are wierd and don't seem to follow the same thought. Slightly more scummy and he's still one of my big perople I'd vote for.