Mini 730 - Hard Nights in the City - OVER!

[Megatheory]

confirm

[Megatheory]

Self voting is ridiculously stupid. It accomplishes nothing positive for the town and provides no information that we can use to determine your alignment. Knock it off. Seriously. Don't try to defend this boneheaded action or you will just be risking getting yourself lynched for no benefit whatsoever.

Vote: Danchaofan

Your vote is for someone who is concerned that their activity level will get them modkilled. Why is that suspicious? If anything, geraintm is expressing concerns that are only good for the town.

[Megatheory]

sorry, i thought we were in the random/joke vote phase.

unvote

funny. it is "ridiculously stupid" and has "no benefit", yet you use my self vote to show your towniness.

just to be clear: have we moved past the random/joke vote phase?

You're acting like the random phase has no actual purpose. Besides breaking the ice, sometimes scumtells can come through during that time. Beyond that, self voting is bad

all the time

. What was your intent other than to say "haw haw, I self voted! Isn't that goofy?"

This is a team game, remember? If the town doesn't work together, there is no chance for success. Advising you the way I did is intended to move you towards better play. I don't know if you are town or not, but statistically you are probably town unless I have a reason to believe otherwise. My intent was not to appear now townie, that was just a side effect.

[Megatheory]

vote: chaosomega

for not have an explanation for voting for Megatheory

Why don't you try asking him why he voted for me instead of jumping to conclusions?

The implication is from nameless is that gera is on the mafia side, to which gera respons something about 'us'. This is wifom as surely no mafia would imply that they are mafia. Or, would they? =P

Current serious level:-25%

I saw his use of "us" to mean "the town." You're really grasping at straws.

my vote broke the ice. by virtue of us still talking about it, it has obviously generated some type of discussion. discussion is pro town.

Discussion does not always benefit the town. If two townies get into an argument and one of them gets lynched over it, their discussion was ultimately bad for the town. Our goal here is to find scum, so our discussion needs to be aimed at that end. Discussions about self votes rarely help find scum.

also, the idea of the random vote is multi faceted. by randomly choosing someone we can hope to land on scum. if we land on scum then perhaps a "scumtell" comes through in their reaction. so why wouldn't a "scumtell" come through in someone elses reaction to a self vote? i.e. you say my lynch has no benefit. does that mean that you know i'm town?

Two aspects of this are completely wrong. First, you're ignoring the fact that we can gain information about a random voter's alignment. If said voter votes for himself, there is no alignment related information to gain. Second, scumtells usually come out during random votes

when a scum reacts to someone voting for them

. The idea is that the scum is more concerned about being lynched than a town player, so they will be more sensitive about a vote for them and react too strongly.

i believe you mean "anti-town." self voting can actually be a "good" scum manuver later in the game if properly executed. again, the fact that we are having a discussion contradicts your assertion that self voting is ridiculous. come to think of it, it also contradicts the fact you are trying to make with the above statement.

Wow, this makes no sense whatsoever. Self voting is good for the town because it's good for the scum in certain situations? So why on God's Green Earth would it be good for a

townie

to self vote? If I didn't know better, I'd see this as you admitting that you are scum!

do you still believe a self vote in the random phase to be "ridiculous and stupid"?

Yes. You haven't demonstrated that self voting is good for the town in any way, except "it generates discussion." Is it still good for the town if we are both townies and this argument leads to one of us being lynched because you didn't realize what you were doing?

[Megatheory]

Mega is pushing very hard for early, weak points. He's also placing vote/lynching under general discussion, and his idea of scum being more sensitive than town to votes is bad (I'd say a player's personality would have has much impact and townie power roles would be as sensitive anyway). Suspicious, and that's not a question this time.

I am trying to convince don_johnson that self voting is bad. Do you think self voting is a good plan? If so, why?

I'm not pushing don. I don't find him suspicous. Where is this coming from?

Why is placing voting/lynching under discussion as early as possible suspicious? Voting is a fundamental part of the game that gives a great deal of information.

By the way, you are completely wrong about scum being more sensitive to votes. It's a fundamental factor in scum hunting. Usually, the best way to find scum is to vote for someone and gauge their reaction.

i have asked him

You posted that when I was typing up my last post. Do you find his reasonless vote suspicious?

discussion always helps town. that is my stand.

Okay. Let's discuss how self votes are always suspicous because only scum vote for themselves ever. Or, we could discuss things that are rooted in reality and will help the town find scum.

multifaceted was meant to imply that there are more than just two ideas and motivations behind the random voting phase. you make no sense here. first, are you implying that you can determine someones alignment based on who they randomly vote for? the self vote promotes discussion. through that discussion scum can be exposed.

Combined with other factors, random votes can help determine someone's alignment. For example, scum might vote for one of their parteners as a low risk way to distance themselves. If you think two players are scumparteners, such a vote may be evidence that such a relationship exists.

Can you provide any examples of how self voting promotes discussion that helps the town?

also, as i said: someones reaction to a self vote can also contain a scumtell. the point you italicize is part of the point i made. we agree on that. no aspect of what i said is wrong. you have misunderstood.

Okay, my mistake. We agree. Wonderful. We are discussion two completely different reactions, though.

who said "self voting is good for the town because it's good for the scum in certain situations"? if one is scum, then self voting can be a "good" manuver late in the game. i.e. to cut off discussion and drop the hammer on oneself. no one implied or said anything about this being good for town. you said "self voting is always bad." what you should have said is "self voting is anti-town." either way, you are wrong. self voting is not

always

anything.

If you are town, why would you want to do something that is demonstrably only good for scum? That makes no sense.

you seem to be overly concerned with lynching. its quite early in the day. also, for someone so concerned with this argument leading to a mislynch, you seem to be pushing it towards that end quite forcefully. are you going to vote me now?

There is no such thing as "being overly concerned wth lynching" in a game of mafia. Mafia is about lynching. That's like telling a football player that he is overly concerned with touchdowns.

I'm not pushing towards your lynch. I'm not voting for you. I don't find you suspicious. You are using some weird logic and I am interested in seeing where this goes, but if you are willing, I'd be fine with droping this altogether.

[Megatheory]

Unvote

I like Danchaofan's reaction to the votes that came his way and he seems pretty townish so far.

If two townies get into an argument that still helps an attentive town as much for other people's reactions as the two arguing. If one of those arguing is lynched, then it's the voting that's causing a problem, not the discussion itself. More discussion means more analysis, if a townie can't cope with the quantity that's a personal time issue that could be overcome by eg. just analysing key exchanges. Given it's the primary source and basically the point of the game for the town, discussion = good. Portraying discussion as sometimes bad (or trying to keep discussion low) seems slightly dubious.

I'm suggesting that discussing things that really don't benefit the town and can't be used to determine someone's alignment are bad. Is that dubious as well?

Starting to get the feeling now that Mega is just verbose rather than intentionally arguing strongly.

This is hilarious because in every other area of my life, I'm anything but verbose. Maybe that's what my mafia style is evolving into.

You're suggesting two scenarios here: one, in which I'm extra verbose (ha), or two, I'm arguing strongly for... something. In the second scenario, what am I arguing strongly for?

i do find it suspicious. i think that even in the "random voting stage" you should have a reason to vote, as it sparks conversation. In this case, the opposite is happening, no reason, yet still sparking conversation.

So if someone votes randomly or arbitrarily and they give a silly reason like "they have green in their avatar!" is that reason good enough that you wouldn't find it suspicious?

And Juls, you haven't voted yet. Why?

Because nothing has compelled me to vote yet. I was thinking about throwing a joke vote out there but conversation got underway. I don't think don_johnson is scummy for self voting and I dont thing megatheory is scummy for making a huge deal out of it. I am watching and reading and when I get ready to place a vote I will do so.

Sounds like scum sitting in the background waiting for a convenient wagon... =P

I have to agree. I'd really like to see where this goes.

Vote: Juls

Vote: Plum

For not posting since confirmations

This seems like a really noobish post. Do you have any real thoughts about the game so far?

hindsight is always 20/20. once you find one scum it is definitely worth going back and analyzing their vote pattern. however, there is usually going to be no way to pick out a scum pair using

only

the random voting phase. so yes, combined with other factors, random votes can help determine someones alignment. just like my self vote. to answer the question: see above. and of course, hypothetically, if this discussion were to tailspin into your lynch and you flipped scum then my self vote would have been extremely good for town.

Why are you implying that I'm scum? Do you find me suspicious? If so, why?

you are free to drop it anytime you wish.

I'd love to, really, I would. But you are using such weird logic in this discussion. You are unwilling to recognize any risk to yourself, and you keep turning it back on me, like I will be lynched regardless of the fact that I'm not pushing you, nor did I find you suspicous before. You're certainly getting there, though.

[Megatheory]

Okay, hold a moment. I'm all for harassing lurkers, but let's put this into perspective here. At this time of this vote, the game had been started for all of ~30 hours. Jumping the gun much?

I find it a more relevant discussion than the needless/useless argument Mega and Don are engaged in. The level of outrage and defensiveness seems disproportionate considering the subject matter. And it does not help us find scum.

Forget my question, you just answered it.

[Megatheory]

Just checking in really quick. I'm putting together a big post, but I have to eat soon so I don't know when I'll get it up.

[Megatheory]

I took this comment by danchaofan to be a joke based on the little smilie at the end:

Sounds like scum sitting in the background waiting for a convenient wagon... =P

So mega you think this is what I am actually doing? Like I said, I was going to throw out a joke vote but considering the conversation turned serious pretty quickly I thought a joke vote would be inappropriate. Considering I don't think either side's case is scummy I am not going to throw out a vote just to apease people. I would like to have a valid reason for my vote rather than vote just for the sake of voting.

I don't care if dan was serious or not. I am. Why is that relevant?

I didn't expect you to vote immediately. What I saw was two players (insanepenguin and yourself) who were posting but contributing very little. What set you apart was your "I'm waiting for something to happen" attitude, which came off as scum rationalizing their lack of contribution. Obviously, chaosomega and geraintm weren't contributing much either, but the two of you really stood out to me.

It's strange that you would finger insanepenguin for the same thing you were accused of. What sets you apart from him in the early game?

Unvote

I like Danchaofan's reaction to the votes that came his way and he seems pretty townish so far.

I think I'm at two votes? I think it's rash to judge someone's reactions based on two votes.

It can be enough sometimes. I voted you over something relatively small and I didn't see anything after that made you suspicious.

Am I to infer that its noobish to find the discussion you're having with don to be pointless and potentially distracting from the game? If so, then I'll accept the insult, because that is exactly my current 'thoughts on the game': too much time spent discussing self votes and how much discussion is too much discussion and not enough time spent actually looking for scum.

I wasn't trying to insult you at all. Evaluating players and guessing their alignment based on your evaluation is part of scumhunting. I saw your title (townsperson) and what you initially posted (voting Plum for not posting since confirmation) and thought you might be new. I saw what you posted later and got the contribution I asked for. Why is this insulting?

Because you've already admitted that you dont find don supicious. So why are you devoting an ungodly time responding to every single stubborn thing he's said?

I was trying to investigate his possible motives for self voting. I could have gone about it the wrong way and/or taken it too far, but there is some odd logic in his arguments about it. ATM I think he is probably town, though he did give me little scum vibes here and there.

I'm going to go ahead and agree with everything Chaos said in his last post. Also @ Mega, the alternative to you just being generally verbose is that you were being deliberately verbose and overly argumentative towards Don over comparatively minor issue; this appears scummy.

Does this set me apart from don? He was arguing over comparatively minor issues as well.

1) You voted for danchao for one reason (voting for somebody based on their thoughts on a possible lurking player) and later unvoted for another reason (danchao's reaction to votes). I have a couple questions here: IF that is the reason you voted for him, what do you still think of the issue, both about geraint being MIA and about danchao's initial vote on him? And then also, what impressed you so much about danchao's "reaction to the votes" on him that caused you to unvote?

His vote for geraintm seemed like scum attempting to skewer a town player over a very minor tell. His later posts didn't give me anything else to make me think he was scum.

2) Why are you SO intent on having don_johnson see the concept of self-voting your way? I would assume that you have already read what I have to say about don_johnson so you should know that I am eyeing the two of you as being possible scum buddies with a plan to spin the townies' heads with a pointless arguement. So why so much between the two of you????

At first I thought he didn't know what he was doing. Later on, his arguments didn't make sense to me, so I tried to see if I could find out why he was so certain and why he was arguing so strongly.

3) What I find really interesting here is that you were also then quick to say that you were NOT pushing, voting, etc. for don_johnson. Why, you don't want your scum buddy to get votes on him? (That was mean, I'm sorry )

a) I was making no attempt to get him lynched. I was investigating his possible motive for self voting.

b) Why are you trying so hard to be inoffensive?

Why are you implying that I'm scum? Do you find me suspicious? If so, why?

Why would you want to bring this up? So that you can get another's opinion and make yourself less scummy? Interesting....

If I can't question people in this manner, I'm really at a loss as to how I'm supposed to defend myself let alone find scum. It is perfectly natural to question don about where he is in the argument and what he is getting out of it. There is no good reason to find this suspicious and it makes me think that you are scum trying to take advantage of the situation.

Overall, I can't look at penguin's post and find where he is getting his rankings from.

2) why do you feel that mega suggested that he and don_johnson are town? What was there specifically in mega's post that brought this to your attention and made you think to bring it up to everyone? What do you now think of them and their arguement?

The tenor of his "teaching" voice, to me, assumed that the scummy behavior was just bad play. It didn't seem to me that he was even considering the possibility that his "student" was town.

Penguin is asking a question about this post:

1. The last sentence in Megatheory's post says to me he's assuming/knows you're town, too.]

I am really confused about Porken's answer. First, Porkens says I was assuming that don's behavior was bad play (which is accurate, actually), then he says I wasn't even considering the possibility that don was town? That is totally, 100%, completely wrong. The self contradiction is more interesting, though.

you are willingly hopping onto a bandwagon with two players you find scummier than the person you are trying to lynch. you rate both chaosomega and me as scummier than megatheory(co:3,dj:3, mt:3.5). yet you vote for megatheory. please explain your rationale behind this vote.

This is a very good point.

one more thing to add on: Megatheory: You said you weren't pushing Don and you don't find him suspicious....so...why did you vote him and question him and rant about self voting?

This is answered above. Everyone keeps asking me the same question. Well, there are some who have jumped to conclusions already... (chaosomega comes to mind, there may be others)

Please inform me how some of my points and assumptions are bad/wrong.

It's hard to actually answer this since nearly everything you say is worded as a question you can easily deny implications of later (how convenient for you)

You did the same thing in post 34. Was that not conveinient for you as well?

Some of the votes have been poorly justified, and there has been little attention towards Don despite him being IMHO more at fault for the exchange. Also, it irks me.

Why is don more at fault?

I don't like geraintm's latest post at all. It seems like the kind of post an uncomfortable scum who didn't know what sides to pick or what to say would post. There is very little, if anything, actually there.

Unvote Vote: insanepenguin

IP's rating me at thrid scummiest but still throwing his vote on my bandwagon was certainly scummy, but my vote is coming from his odd reasons for finding me scummy, and I find his method of ranking people but asking them questions rather than providing more reasons for the rankings suspicious.

[Megatheory]

Juls

, maybe you missed it, but you didn't answer this question:
It's strange that you would finger insanepenguin for the same thing you were accused of. What sets you apart from him in the early game?

Side note: I have a feeling I'm being suckered into believing female's innocence. The avatars aren't helping >.<

I've done that before. Who in particular are you talking about and why did you bring it up?

I'm not sure what to make of penguin's reaction to his bandwagon. He is responding mostly to the accusations regarding voting for the player he ranked thrid scummiest, but I had other reasons for voting him and some other people did as well. I'd like to see him respond to those other reasons in more detail.

I will say that his wagon seems to have grown very quickly.

*sigh*, this always seems to happen day one.

I don't want to/will not regurgitate what you all have already said. I've decided that yes, penguin should claim or die, based on the cases

you people

have presented.

And christ, I hope someone does quckhammer. that'll certainly give some direction to day two.

I understand if you don't want to just repeat what has already been said, but it would help a lot if you would highlight whatever reasons stand out the most for you.

[Megatheory]

And at this time, the only thing that I will claim is that I am town. Anything other than that, power role or vanilla, will be for a later time if I get back to L-1 with good reasoning (if you guys give me the time to respond before hammering, that is).

So basically you won't claim until you get some kind of attack you like?

Thanks for nothing.

I'd still like to hear some comments from you about something other than voting for your third scummiest player. IMO that's the weakest reason against you.

P.S. Playing the pissed-off townie card isn't going to help you here.

[Megatheory]

Huh? None of that seemed to make sense to me....

I will claim when I need to in order to protect my role.

You welcome?

Comments from me? I think I have said plenty in the game outside of my "vote for the third scummiest player" arguement that is actually getting quite old and pointless the more it gets brought up. Can I say....still scum? And are you commenting on me or others when you say "IMO that's the weakest reason against you"?

PPS Huh? Pissed off townie? Is that a role?

"Pissed off townie" refers to your attitude. Normally, townies do react this way when they are under suspicion, but it looks like an act to me. You're not going to help yourself by continuing to be angry and calling us idiots for suspecting you.

You refused to claim unless you were voted for "good reasons," but that's not for you to decide. Apparently, the town has judged the reasons against you and found them good enough to put you at L-1. That's the appropriate time for you to claim, whether you like it or not. It's moot now since you've claimed, but I'm bringing it up because this action has done nothing but make me suspect you more.

There are things I've brought up that you haven't addressed. I think there are points brought up by others that you haven't addressed either. I can find them for you so you can respond, but honestly, you should be doing that yourself. I think, if you were town, you would be more than thorough since you seem to think the arguments against you are so poor.

Yes, I am commenting on others by saying that the primary reason against you isn't very good. I am suspicious of those who are using that as their primary reason.

And I should just say this - to those of you who are town, I would strongly suggest noting the players that are pushing these points against me the most as they will likely be the ones that end up scum at the end of the game. They know who they are and know that everyone else is town and therefore will gladly want to bring up anything that could be taken as scummy about someone else and beat it to death if it means no suspicion or discussion occurs about them during that time.

Just a thought.

What points? You're being unhelpfully vague, and this isn't the first time, either.

***

Since the OP tells us there are no cops in this game, tracker seems like the next logical fakeclaim for scum. Personally, I wouldn't believe penguin regardless of what he claimed. IMO he is behaving like cornered scum. Is there any way we can reliably test him tonight to see if he really is a tracker?

I'm still not liking geraintm. His posts reek of unhelpful, low contributing scum. It might be early to make that judgment, but I definitely see a pattern forming.

If anybody hammers within the next five real life days, my vote will not move from them D2, no exceptions.

I hope you're not serious. Do you think it's highly likely that penguin is town? Can we confirm if he is really a tracker?

Afterthought: You know, I'm seriously not sure which I found more dubious: insanepenguin02, or his wagon. Even if IP is scum I wouldn't be surprised to find scum bussing right now.

There's no way his wagon wasn't scum driven. I still think he's scum because if I was his partner, I would probably bus him, too.

Porkens

Is there anything about the case against penguin that sticks out for you, or do you just want to lynch someone ASAP because you hate day 1 so much?

[Megatheory]

porkens has been a little jumpy...

You know what, don't even bother answering. Lynch this man.

vote: Nameless

vote: insanguin I think it's time for a claim, pengy.

i agree with him about Day 1. I don't think who is lynched day 1 really matters, for the begininng of Day 2 and peoples "reactions" to the nightkills can be a good source for scumhunting. And i mean one townie gone isn't necessarily a bad thing. Unless, of course, there is an abnormal amount of scum/multiple familes. But granted this is a mini game, and only 12 players.

vote: insane penguin.

This is exactly what i meant by digging yourself a hole...because of your large post, you had to respond to all 11 players, and in those 11 responses you revealed more, and mucked up.

The more I think about this post, the worse it gets. bovine votes for penguin, so that would indicate that he thinks penguin is scum. He says penguin dug himself a hole and mucked up by revealing more. I can't imagine why a townie would ever say this to scum.

Is bovine using Porkens' excuse as a cover? I've looked over his posts and I'm not seeing anything to indicate he had this opinion up until this post.

FOS canadianbovine

[Megatheory]

the only way for you to

know

that the wagon was scum driven 100% is if you are scum. ip's post was terrible. scum may have been on the wagon. scum was probably on the wagon. but

definitely

? only scum could know for sure. this is not the first time you have chosen your words poorly. i suggest you start proofreading your posts if you are town.

So you think a typical town would run up penguin to L-1 in that situation without any scum voting for him?

[Megatheory]

do you get my logic behind him digging a hole? sure its a little heterodox but what i was saying is that because he was posting this huge post which would require many follow up posts would of been a bad decision if he was scum.

It doesn't explain your vote in any kind of protown way.

[Megatheory]

Unvote

The deadline is less than a week away. We need to decide

right now

if we're going to lynch penguin or not. I strongly suggest we table all other issues until we come to a consensus on this, or we will probably wind up slapping together a poorly informed lynch or even wind up no-lynching, and if either of those things happen, we have virtually no chance of winning. We've already put this off for too long.

Throwing around suspicion and discussing side issues can wait. We need to focus on this. Now.

I still think penguin is scum. Tracker is an easy role to fake and is the next logical choice for scum given the dead NPC cop and backup cop in the opening flavor. I think penguin is by far the best lynch for today, but I'm willing to compromise under the following conditions:

-Penguin can only get off the hook if he finds a player who targeted a dead player.
-If that player is lynched and comes up scum, penguin should be lynched unless he finds another player who targeted a dead player.
-This continues until penguin does not find a scum or three scum are dead. At that point, penguin is lynched.
-We guarantee that penguin does not survive until endgame.

This is pretty elaborate and is probably half-baked. I'm trying to prevent the town from developing stupid townie syndrome and letting penguin live based on some WIFOM bullshit or something like that. If any of you can think of a better test for penguin, I'd love to hear it.

I'm sure this should go without saying, but just in case: DO NOT CLAIM A POWERROLE AND SUGGEST THAT PENGUIN TARGET YOU TONIGHT.

[Megatheory]

Finished readthrough (finally!). A post will come tonight with my thoughts, I just need to turn my notes into a coherent post.

Please save it until we've made a decision about penguin.

Also, let's not direct the doc, if there is one.

[Megatheory]

I don't want someone to post some long analysis that spirals into an argument that distracts the town from coming to a conclusion about penguin. This needs to be settled as soon as possible so the deadline doesn't force us into making a poor lynch.

I'd like penguin to describe his power so those who don't know what a tracker does can find out, and we might catch him in a lie if we are lucky.

[Megatheory]

I want us to focus on dealing with insanepenguin because I can see us not having a workable solution until the absolute last mintue, if at all. Excuse the hell out of me for trying to keep the town on task and preventing (for the millionth fucking time) a hastily thrown together lynch. Discussion is going in eight different directions at once. How are we going to decide on this if everyone is talking about completely different things?

There's a lot that I would love to post, but I'm not posting any of it yet because it could very easily drown out the more important discussion regarding penguin. I can already see that happening. There are a number of people who aren't responding to potential solutions or providing solutions of their own.

This issue is being ignored

.

Can we just focus on penguin until Monday? Is a couple days of focus really too much to ask? Wouldn't it be better to have those remaining days focusing on finding a new lynch candidate instead of taking even more shots at penguin?

I could be completely wrong about this, but if I'm right and we wind up with a bad lynch or no lynch at all, you have no one but yourselves to blame.

My Suggestion for the InsanePenguin tracker claim

I think for the IP tracker situation it should be handled like this. Leave him alive today. If there is a doctor out there, you can choose whether or not you feel he warrants protection. Each day IP can tell us who he targeted and what the result was. I suggest the town notes it and but does not make it their sole reason for voting. DO NOT COUNTER HIS RESULTS CLAIM, IF YOU DO, I WILL ASSUME YOU TO BE SCUM. After we have caught one mafia, we can lynch IP, he will hopefully have served his purpose by then and we will be able to confirm his role. Once he is lynched we will know if his night results were true or not and then we can use them at that point in our analysis. I suggest finding one mafia first because we can be relatively certain there are at least two mafia. So there is no need to lynch IP until we find the other one. Does that make sense? I realize there may be more but if there are only two we will have found the first one and if IP is the second we will get a quick lynch and have either 2/3 or be game over. Thoughts?

The problem with this is there is no guarantee we can find the first scum. What if we get to lylo and penguin is still alive? Do we lynch him and risk losing by lynching a *gasp*

uncounterclaimed powerrole????

Of course, we won't. Once we get to lylo, we will never be able to lynch penguin. It won't happen.

#215, Mega's plan to deal with IP is a bad one because it relies on chance, but a probably good one because it ends with a dead IP and IP bussing a scumbuddy D2 if we're really lucky. But bad again because if we were actually stupid enough to plan lynches like that all the powerroles would just No Action and laugh as IP was lynched for free. But seriously, we can't reliably test IP's claim, I doubt IP's getting lynched now so we'll get back to that if he's alive D2 or 3, and I'll be suggesting one or two alternative lynches for D1 when I have more free time tomorrow. (Sneak Preview! If all else fails we policy lynch Porkens for lurking.)

What is your suggestion then? I'd love to just lynch penguin now and get it over with, but we aren't going to get our way today. We need to compromise. How are we going to prevent penguin from solidifying his claim without actually being a tracker?

Wow, quite the conditions there, mega. Now why would you want me lynched if I fail to find a second scum after I find one (theoretically) and he comes up scum? If I can get that lucky to track a mafia member night one, state that in day two, and it comes out correct, why would you want me lynched right away???? Wouldn't a pro-town member want to only lynch SCUM?? If I were to die, wouldn't you want the mafia to take me out so the town doesn't waste a lynch on one of their own?

This list of conditions in INCREDIBLY scummy IMO. Other thoughts by anybody?

I still think you are scum, so I'm trying to prevent you from turning over a scum partener and guaranteeing your survival until endgame. Tracker is an easy role to fake and does not have such a high value that we absolutely, positively must keep you alive.

P. S. Where the hell is ChaosOmega?

[Megatheory]

I'm going to reread starting tomorrow. It shouldn't take longer than two days. One of the things I intend to do over this reread is provide penguin with a list of issues he either has not addressed or should provide more detail on.

Regarding my plan, I still think my scenario is the best one presented so far

as long as the town thinks penguin is suspicious

. If penguin begins to appear more like a townie (and I mean

a lot

more), it would be silly to lynch him based only on his supposed tracker results. My plan is designed to prevent penguin from proving himself solely through his role or an attempt to fake said role.

By the way, Porkens, your subtle and continued support of penguin is definitely noted.

[Megatheory]

Since it has come up a few times, I want to put this out there and get some discussion on it:

I think the opening flavor is definitely intended to indicate that there are no cops in this game. Not only was an NPC cop killed, but an NPC backup cop also. It's also become hip and trendy to avoid the doc/cop combo in setups, as well as eschewing cops altogether. If anybody knows anything about Spyrex (the mod) and his general take on cops, that might help in sorting this out.

However, I don't think we should conclude that there is definitely a serial killer or two scumgroups until we have an actual night phase. Two kills could just mean that the mod wanted to eliminate the possibility of a cop or backup cop. Two different killing

methods

, however, does indicate that there may be a serial killer. Ultimately, we don't know anything until there is at least one night phase, and making any conclusions before then is unwise.

[Megatheory]

First thing I need to say:

Since it has come up a few times, I want to put this out there and get some discussion on it:

Ultimately, we don't know anything until there is at least one night phase, and making any conclusions before then is unwise.

Yes, yes. Therefore it's useless, distracting, and anti-town to bring it up for extended discussion. Doubtless DonJ will get into a few long, boring, almost pointless arguments and then . . . what? We won't know enough for certain to have gained everything, and we won't benefit from making WIFOM-prone conclusions as to this sort of stuff Day 1 anyway. So why did you want to bring this up?

Somebody implied that the two kills are evidence of a serial killer. I'm pretty sure don brought it up while putting together his case on Nameless, or supporting his case, or something like that. I haven't got to that part in my reread yet. I wanted to bring it up because I think it could help me understand his case better.

Don't jump all over me about it. Don (I think) brought it up. Jump all over him.

[Megatheory]

okay, jump on me for speculating about a possible sk. i have been in games with them. the flavor fits. but i digress. apparently noone wants me to talk.

I'd love to hear about it. Please. Make your case for there being a serial killer.

[Megatheory]

but i digress. apparently noone wants me to talk.

Stop the whiny-townie attitude here, if you please. I'd like you to talk scum-hunting sense. Not speculate about an SK. That speculation is worthless, distracting, and anti-town Day 1.

Anyone else notice that Plum is trying

really hard

to shut down discussion about a serial killer?

Why now, Plum? It was brought up before!

[Megatheory]

but i digress. apparently noone wants me to talk.

Stop the whiny-townie attitude here, if you please. I'd like you to talk scum-hunting sense. Not speculate about an SK. That speculation is worthless, distracting, and anti-town Day 1.

Anyone else notice that Plum is trying

really hard

to shut down discussion about a serial killer?

Why now, Plum? It was brought up before!

Must have lost it in DonJ's long posts, I suppose, not really cared to add on another lump to my long posts entitled 'that setup discussion that lasted a page? It was a waste for reasons X, Y, and Z'. You really want to discuss the possibility of there being an SK? Tell me why you think it would be town-beneficial to do it right now.

Like I posted before, it will help me understand don's case against Nameless. Both of them are good lynch candidates for today (don't take this as gospel, I'm still rereading).

[Megatheory]

Hey don, if you really think Nameless is scum you shouldn't give up so easily.

[Megatheory]

In fact, both of you should be summarizing cases against the other. We need a good lynch today.

[Megatheory]

Ugh, this is a disaster and I feel I must blame myself. I saw a geraintm lynch as a horrible idea last night, but it was late and I just couldn't get the words out.

geraintm, Porkens, and, to a lesser extend, canadianbovine are all guilty of the same thing: bad day one play. The only reason to pick ger over the other two is because other people have been suspecting him already. This leads me to suspect Porkens, Plum, and Namless for pushing his lynch. Nameless especially, since for a while now I've thought that the lynch would be ger, Namless, or don and if don is lynched and is town, Nameless will be exposed.

mega - fixated on penguin for a long long time
Posted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 5:53 am
this post has don and nameless as top lynch targets, not sure why nameless
sad he didn't make any mention of my post on the night zero kills which were just above him, i wanted credit.
seems happy now to let others make cases on who to lynch and follow. just not getting a good feeling on him, seems eager to find a wagon to jump onto.

I'm still rereading. I have seen evidence in my reread that Nameless is scum. don obviously believes strongly that Nameless is scum, and many of the things he is accusing Nameless of are good scum tells. There are only two possibilities here: don is scum and he pushed Nameless but dropped it since he wasn't getting anywhere,

or

don is town and has caught scum, but became discouraged. I'm 99% sure that lynching one of them is the correct play today. I'm holding final judgment until my reread is complete.

This is all evident in my recent posts. ger, you are looking at the basic surface of things, but you aren't examining motives. This is why your scumhunting is percieved as so poor and that is why you are in trouble now.

plum - seemed fine, can't get passed how he jumped on my wagon after Atronach post. on monday, plum named nameless, porkens, don and dan all ahead of me in scum lists, and seemed very happy to jump towards me. said some of the reasons atronach's reasons he doesn't agree with, but picks me up for the pushing the random lynch - why didn't plum go after me weeks ago when i made this, and the whole joke i tried to make in my first posts, again, why only use this now to attack me as scum? i don't mind leaving the vote thing on, i've said sorry before as i didn't think it was sucha huge deal but i'll clearly not make that mistake again.

I feel this is very important. Plum was pinging my scumdar all last night. I'll try to examine these issues more closely in my reread.

Atronach - i forgot he was in the game for a long time, he seemed under the radar to me
then he pushed an attack on me, i am not sure if he really believes all he has written. the things he has one me, i would never consider them scummy on someone else

Although, you still haven't acknowledged the fact that you don't seem to have scum hunted much.

dan - "IP: any flavour on tracker? " this one line i noted and liked. makes me think he got some flavour in his role and was hoping penguin would have something similar. this might be something tiny to go on, but i buy dan as town

This feels like someone trying to out a power role >.< I never said I had flavor in my role. I ONLY specifically mentioned in the apocalyptic flavor of the OP.

penguin -if scum, then picked a good role to claim.

This comment just feels odd...

juls - seems ok, done decent posting, gotten really sidetracked with the tracker thing.

Do you think discussing what we should do with our tracker is beneficial?

vote: Geraintm

This is nothing but a bandwagon jump. If I understand correctly, you are voting ger because he isn't acknowledging his poor scumhuing. He hasn't before, why would he now? This is bad investigation. You're hung up on this one issue and aren't looking at the rest of what ger has posted in any kind of serious way. I can't tell if this is a scum move or bad town play.

claim then
Jack of All Trades, i can't focus on anything, i like to imagine myself as randy from my name is earl.
one shot tracker
one shot vig

as i said, i had flavour in my role message, hence my liking that post which was askign for flavour from penguin.

glad that got sorted out quick, you can all either decide to lynch me or go looking for someone else to go lynch.

I believe ger. His play is consistend with a bad attempt at protecting his role, which is why his hasn't scumhunted well.

(Sorry to keep insulting you, ger.)

yep, planning how to deal with a tracker on day one when you are going to get results from otehr players seemed odd. i knew that i was going to be able to throw in a tracker result too for example, and i strongly suspect there will be mor epro-town info to come after night 1. i considered it a waste of time.

why did you not speak up previously? the discussion of what to do about ip carried on for several pages. why only mention this now?

He was trying to protect his role. Duh. Think about who you are talking to.

also, i find it interesting that you don't think i have been scum hunting. you could say i have been extraordinarily poorly scum hunting, but to say i haven't been scumhunting to me is extemely suspicious. i have over fifty posts in this game, and though some contain arguments with other players, they are mostly arguments over who i believe to be scum. i have repeatedly pointed out why i think players are scummy. i have backed up every reason i have used with evidence. you can call my evidence weak, but to say it is non existant is a complete misrepresentation of how i have been playing. i believe at this point that you are scum. you were cornered. though your claim doesn't seem desperate, you have pushed the town in my direction with your subtley placed criticism of my play which you have backed up with absolutely ZERO EVIDENCE.

I get the feeling you are taking this personally. Step back and look at the wagon on ger. Look at ger's play and see if it's consistent with a powerrole.

ebwop: i have rethought some things and alot will depend on how you respond. however, vig may be an entirely provable claim due to flavor in this game. i.e. if town directs ger's one-shot kill i would think it would not turn up as "beheaded". just a thought. what are others ideas?

He should vig himself.

you seem to just be following along porkens, you've been on both of these bandwagons. Do you have a list of people you would like to lynch today?

Quoted for extreme truthery. The interesting thing is, sometimes he actually does have something to say. I think looking at his day one play and seeing where he actually posts substance can help determine his alignment.

ebwop: found this on wiki.

The Jack-of-all-trades is a role with

several night abilities

, such as investigating, protecting, etc. Once he has used a type of ability, he won't be able to use it again.

several implies more than two.

i will stop posting for a while. if i am going to be bandwagoned i would like my questions answered and my suggestions considered.

Please don't split hairs. Several can mean any number.

If you want to find out who is lying,

look at what they are posting

.

[Megatheory]

so MT doesn't mind lynching nameless, don, or ger? I'm not reading who CB or porkens (still) would like to lynch.

I do NOT want to lynch ger. If you would pay attention, you would notice most of my last post is devoted to arguing

against

his lynch.

don or Nameless should be lynched today.

Note that Megatheory attempts to handwave the different cases against three players under the same category of "bad D1 play". This is stupid because bad play is an incredibly general term that pretty much every scummy action falls under, and because Mega tries to use this as a reason to attack several players for, god forbid, pushing a single player for lynching. Mega then states that one of Don or I must be scum (BAD, townies get into arguments too, you know). Mega also obviously defends Gera.

HoS: Megatheory

and this man needs to be examined closely D2.

I noticed you can't argue that ger's actions are truly suspicious as opposed to bad play. The difference is huge because town and scum are equally likely to play badly. Your vote is still on him. Do you really want to lynch someone when you can't argue that they are suspicious? Maybe you can, but instead of addressing my arguments and understand what I'm saying, you're taking the opportunity to shovel dirt on me while masking the core issues I've brought up.

I defended ger because I believe his role claim. His play backs it up. Why bother arguing that it doesn't when you can just heap suspicion on me?

You and don have had much more than a simple argument. don thinks you are scum, and went so far as to campaign for your lynch. Either he is scum and dropped a case that he saw wasn't working, or he is town and caught a scum, but became discouraged too soon. Unless you can suggest an alternative scenario

with evidence

, then the best play is to lynch one of you.

I'm still rereading, but I already know what we should do.

Vote Nameless

[Megatheory]

You have no stronger evidence of the two scenarios above than I have of suggesting that DonJ is town and thought he caught scum, and became discouraged while Nameless was town. There's nothing precluding Don from having made a case and petitioned for the lynch of a townie as town. None at all. The best play is not

necessarily

to lynch one of them today, as there's no good guarantee that one or the other has to be scum.

don was campaigning in a way that indicates that he is convinced that Nameless is scum. Some of his accusations cover genuine scum tells. I have found things in my reread that indicate that Nameless is scum. You say you have evidence that the two of them are townies, but you haven't presented any.

Further, you obviously don't think don is a townie

because you are voting for him

.

Weird that you asked

with evidence

. Sounds suspiciously related to the 'Burden of Proof' logical fallacy.

Nameless heaped suspicion on me without actually arguing against anything I said. He is trying to prevent his own lynch and prevent don from being lynched because it may expose him.

[Megatheory]

EBWOP: Nameless has to present evidence because without it he is doing nothing but preserving his own life.

[Megatheory]

During my reread, I found a number of things suspicious about Nameless.

I found this part of post 34 suspicious very early:

Don and Mega have started going at each other very quickly, perhaps suspiciously so? Penguin comments, but doesn't contribute to

serious or non serious discussion, is that suspicious? Chaos says nothing but votes, suspicious?

I didn't find it too suspicious, so I decided to wait and see more of Namelss's play before calling him out on it. In retrospect, I

should have immediately. When I did ask him about it, Nameless said these questions where "rhetorical":

Oh come on, my first three questions in #34 were obviously rhetorical.

That's not much of an explanation. I'd like some more detail on this. I don't see any reason to phrase these as questions except to

draw suspicious responses while easily distancing himself from them. He uses a similar distancing tactic later on.

Post 42:

Mega is pushing very hard for early, weak points. He's also placing vote/lynching under general discussion, and

his idea of scum being more sensitive than town to votes is bad (I'd say a player's personality would have has much impact and

townie power roles would be as sensitive anyway). Suspicious, and that's not a question this time.

Why is placing voting and/or lynching under discussion suspicious? I asked Nameless about this, but he lumped his response in with

a response to something else. Of course, he can't answer for this because it makes no sense.

i liked your post, though i would definitely request less "stream of consciousness" posting. i do it as well

sometimes, but i find it easier to communicate when things are structured well.

This makes me laugh because you have trouble finding your Shift key. But seriously, you're exaggerating Mega's scumminess in your

game theory

exchange and saying one of you must be scum is

very wrong

. (Protip: Townies disagree often, and you are

getting tunnel vision. There will be more than one scum, why not take a break from Mega and try to give opinions on who the others

might be? You're allowed to have some initiative rather than wait for questions, you know. -_-)

Here Nameless is totally distorting don's case against me. I hate to admit it, but don had good points against me. Nameless

addresses none of them, and instead paints it as poor play.

Afterthought: You know, I'm seriously not sure which I found more dubious: insanepenguin02, or his wagon. Even if

IP is scum I wouldn't be surprised to find scum bussing right now.

Megatheory states there are no cops in this game (from flavour NPC kills).

He also states that scum must be on IP's wagon

. I

find both these statements overly sure and dubious.

So Nameless obviously thinks there were probably scum on penguin's wagon, but when I

quote his post and agree with it

, it's

dubious. I also noticed that Nameless's comment came after don said he thought I was overly sure about this. Very suspicious.

don_johnson

, for the self vote, following overly long/pointless discussion, following mega vote and the

awful "wifomic? yes. but only until my death." self pairing THING,

still disagree with the way he jumped on the IP bandwagon

with what I see as the (then exagerated) smallest reason, seriously arguing semantics (eg. #172), frequently using "wifomic" to

cast false suspicion on arbitrary players/posts, for a second time exagerating and pushing a single minor point as the only reason

to lynch somebody (that's me!), make it overly clear that he doesn't know the scum setup, trying to partially direct the doc

(#220), aaaaaand epic stretching by taking a cassual comment ("Yeesh ...") as serious evidence that someone (me again) is

SK.

This is huge. Nameless accuses don of "jumping on the bandwagon" when don was literally the first person to vote for penguin after

his big post. (Juls had her vote on penguin

before

his big post but took it off immediately after.) Go ahead and look, town,

don was first. Further, Nameless uses a distancing tactic by saying he "disagrees" with this action. Why is this suspicious if simple disagreement is the strongest criticism that he can come up with?

don's posts brought this to my attention, and it is a strong scum tell.

I have more to say (a lot more, really), but I have expended all of the effort I can this evening. Seriously, lynch Nameless, he is so obviously scum it's not even funny. Also, sorry about the ugly ass line breaks.

[Megatheory]

You have no stronger evidence of the two scenarios above than I have of suggesting that DonJ is town and thought he caught scum, and became discouraged while Nameless was town. There's nothing precluding Don from having made a case and petitioned for the lynch of a townie as town. None at all. The best play is not

necessarily

to lynch one of them today, as there's no good guarantee that one or the other has to be scum.

don was campaigning in a way that indicates that he is convinced that Nameless is scum. Some of his accusations cover genuine scum tells. I have found things in my reread that indicate that Nameless is scum. You say you have evidence that the two of them are townies, but you haven't presented any.

Further, you obviously don't think don is a townie

because you are voting for him

.

Total strawman. I do not say I have evidence that the two of them are townies. I'm saying that there's no "proof" that one of the two of them has to be scum. I've campaigned for a lynch as town for someone I genuinely believed to be scum. I found things in rereads and made a strong case against said player. We were both town. I don't think DonJ is too likely to be a townie, but am far from convinced that I'm infallible. It's my best effort at this point, my vote on DonJ, and I think it's good. But you have not made a convincing case that it must be the case that one of Nameless and DonJ

must

be scum. It's plausible, but by no means the only plausible explanation for these events.

Weird that you asked

with evidence

. Sounds suspiciously related to the 'Burden of Proof' logical fallacy.

Nameless heaped suspicion on me without actually arguing against anything I said. He is trying to prevent his own lynch and prevent don from being lynched because it may expose him.

I'll analyze that in a later post, as that may take a long while to address properly. The fact that you find Nameless suspicious is not related to the logical fallacy you're using. You made a sweeping statement: 'One of [Nameless and DonJ] is scum'. Am I correct? And you continued to say that 'therefore we should lynch from one of the two of them. If you want to argue you must

prove

them both town. The lack of proof that they are both definitely town doesn't make it certain that one of them must be scum in any way, shape, or form.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... n_of_Proof

Read it and weep. Stop strawmanning me and such.

On preview: You're still strawmanning this whole situation. You mean to say that he must present evidence that both he and DonJ are town or be lynched for trying to save his own skin? You're still using a logical fallacy and still not making any sense.

I'm sorry, I used the wrong word both times in that post. I said "evidence" when I should have said "reason to believe". I have reasons to believe that lynching don or Nameless is the correct play. (Actually, that's kind of old news. I just want to lynch Nameless now.)

Let's look at the situation more closely. Don is pushing a case against Nameless and is even going so far as to emote handing out fliers and buttons. He has accused Nameless of distorting his statements, and is even pointing out where Nameless distorts the words of others. You're right that a townie can campaign against another townie, but there are different levels of certainty regarding one's target. I know when I get to a high level of certainty I have caught scum. Don is projecting a level of certainty that is so high, he is probably right.

Now, you suggested that they are both townies. What is your reason for believing that outside of it just being a basic possibility? Can you point to anything in the thread that leads you to believe they are both townies?

Of course, you don't think they are both townies. You are voting for don, so you must think he is scum. Acknowledging that you are infallible is irrelevant when you are clearly pushing for his lynch. Why would you come out so strongly against the idea that one of them should be lynched today? That's not an unusual idea. Townies propose their ideas for what is the correct lynch all the time. Further, why would you come out against suggesting one of them should be lynched when you are voting for one of them? The answer is obvious: to protect the other. You are protecting Nameless because you are his partner.

I noticed you can't argue that ger's actions are truly suspicious as opposed to bad play

Yeah, see, you could say that about anything. Plenty of Gera's actions obviously benefit the scum (leaving a player at L-1, not contributing to discussion for quite a while, agreeing with Porkens' random lynch comment etc.), so why assume they come from a townie playing badly?

I find ger's play consistent with a townie trying to protect his role. I found him suspicious because he wasn't contributing much. Obviously, trying to stay under the radar could be an attempt to protect his role. Now, all three of the things you point out here are anti-town, but you don't suggest that they are scum tells. Why? Because you can't. ger's play could be coming from scum or town. Of course, at this time I believe ger's claim, so I am more inclined to believe he is town.

He is trying to prevent his own lynch and prevent don from being lynched because it may expose him.

... At the time I made my last post, exactly zero players were voting for me, and I was tossing up whether to swap my vote to the other possible bandwagon of Don. Where the heck did you get THAT from?

I never said you were under any kind of pressure. I said don's lynch was a threat to you because it may expose you.

sorry, the self vig thing was serious?? i assumed it was a joke?
people really expect me to kill myself??

If you are dead, it will confirm you as town. If you really think exercising your tracker power is so important, do that tonight and vig yourself the following night. If you just want to survive, that's anti-town and may indicate that you are lying.

Hey town

when you see Nameless reference a post number instead of quote the post, go back and actually read the post becaue he is most likely misrepresenting what was said.

#360. Megatheory says I can't argue Gera's actions are suspicious compared to bad play, but Mega has at no point argued why Gera's actions are bad play rather than suspicious, making this a nulltell at best and hypocritical at worst. (See also my reply in #366.) Mega accuses me of not addressing his arguments and just heaping suspicion on him, but even after quoting my points does not respond to them. Also hypocritical. Mega then states either Don or I must be scum. These kind of absolutes are bad for the town in any case, but he specifically points out I would need evidence to argue against this, after proving none himself. Again, hypocritical.

You wanted to lynch ger, therefore the burden of proof in on

you

. You have admitted that ger's actions are blatantly anti-town (which is just another way of saying they are bad play), but you cannot demonstrate in any way why they must come from scum. Again, if you want to throw dirt on ger, it is up to

you

to show that his actions can only come from scum. You still haven't. Why?

I did respond to points you raised. I'll quote the post and leave it up to the town to decide if my response was sufficient or not:

so MT doesn't mind lynching nameless, don, or ger? I'm not reading who CB or porkens (still) would like to lynch.

I do NOT want to lynch ger. If you would pay attention, you would notice most of my last post is devoted to arguing

against

his lynch.

don or Nameless should be lynched today.

Note that Megatheory attempts to handwave the different cases against three players under the same category of "bad D1 play". This is stupid because bad play is an incredibly general term that pretty much every scummy action falls under, and because Mega tries to use this as a reason to attack several players for, god forbid, pushing a single player for lynching. Mega then states that one of Don or I must be scum (BAD, townies get into arguments too, you know). Mega also obviously defends Gera.

HoS: Megatheory

and this man needs to be examined closely D2.

I noticed you can't argue that ger's actions are truly suspicious as opposed to bad play. The difference is huge because town and scum are equally likely to play badly. Your vote is still on him. Do you really want to lynch someone when you can't argue that they are suspicious? Maybe you can, but instead of addressing my arguments and understand what I'm saying, you're taking the opportunity to shovel dirt on me while masking the core issues I've brought up.

I defended ger because I believe his role claim. His play backs it up. Why bother arguing that it doesn't when you can just heap suspicion on me?

You and don have had much more than a simple argument. don thinks you are scum, and went so far as to campaign for your lynch. Either he is scum and dropped a case that he saw wasn't working, or he is town and caught a scum, but became discouraged too soon. Unless you can suggest an alternative scenario

with evidence

, then the best play is to lynch one of you.

I'm still rereading, but I already know what we should do.

Vote Nameless

1. Suspecting Nameless because of his scumbuddy speculation (fine) but asking him to elaborate, saying that 'without explaining yourself you leave the players in question with no possible way of defending themselves from what may eventually turn into an angry mob'. You continue to press this point and ask for elaboration (that's anti-town) long, long after the point had been well-done; you seemed to need to burn it to charcoal.

Why is it anti-town to ask Nameless to elaborate on the reasons behind his scum pairings?

Since it's been brought up, my belief that don or Nameless should be lynched doesn't come from a belief that one of them absolutely has to be scum. Initially, I only believed that lynching one of them would have a good chance of hitting scum and provide a lot of information on the other.

Also, notice that Namless and Plum are working together to get that point across.

[Megatheory]

Don is projecting a level of certainty that is so high, he is probably right.

Ahahahahaha, oh god no.

You can mock this all you want as long as it's clear that don's certainty is part of what brought the two of you to my attention, but is not my reason for suspecting you.

Hey Megatheory, wanting to not kill yourself, particularly if you have a powerrole, is not anti-town. Wanting a vig to waste their kill on a (for them) confirmed townie without any particularly dire context IS.

This is strange coming from you when your vote helped force ger into a claim. If you were being honest about this issue, you would want him to prove his role. I mean, he is suspicious, right? Do you have an alternative solution?

You wanted to lynch ger, therefore the burden of proof in on you. You have admitted that ger's actions are blatantly anti-town (which is just another way of saying they are bad play), but you cannot demonstrate in any way why they must come from scum. Again, if you want to throw dirt on ger, it is up to you to show that his actions can only come from scum. You still haven't. Why?

Megatheory is clever, but fails to take into account the fact that he was actively supporting Gera and therefore shared the burden of proof. The answer for why I haven't shown that Gera's actions can only come from scum is something I'm pretty sure I've already mentioned: You can't. Town players are known to perform actions which accidentally benefit the scum. Scum perform the same actions deliberately to benefit the scum. The more of these actions a player performs the greater chance they are scum, but there is no way to literally prove it because there are no actions which could only have come from scum. That's where the whole game comes from, and why you lumping three different players under "bad play" is scummy. (You did not address this issue.)

I am supporting ger because I believe his claim. I believe his claim because he didn't post much substance prior to his claim, but he has stepped up his game after he claimed. This looks to me like he was trying to stay under the radar in an attempt to protect his role. That evidence indicates that his bad play is coming from a town player.

You have admitted that you can't prove that his bad play is coming from a scum player, So why not push for Porkens at that time? His behavior can be classified as bad play also. But ger was already under suspicion, and Antronach posted a case for you, so you pushed ger. That is why I put ger in a "bad play" group, because there is nothing in ger's bad play that indicates that he is scum, and there is nothing in Porkens's bad play to indicate that he is scum, either. (I really wish I didn't put canadianbovine in that group, I'm not so sure if he applies. But Porkens does.) So why

did

you choose ger instead of Porkens?

(I'm going to look at Antronach's case again tomorrow.)

not to argue, but nameless promised to self hammer. if he doesn't then he is scum.

Absolutes ... It's not like a townie couldn't get cold feet. You could have just said Lynch All Liars anyway.

so in a way it makes sense to place nameless at L-1 and request the self hammer.

Only if you assume I'm scum, in which case there's no reason for someone else not to hammer. Except I'm town, so all you'd prove was that I was honourable!

You make a promise to hammer yourself, but when someone calls you out on it, you backpedal and use it to throw dirt on that person? Puh-leeze!

God, just lynch Nameless already, he can't even hold to an entirely protown promise before he could even act on it.

I'm not responding to Plum entirely just yet, I need to think about it more first. I'm not sure yet if saying "evidence" when I meant "reason to believe" is resulting in a misunderstanding or if she really was defending Nameless. Two things though:

Oh, I get it. First you accuse me of being an SK because I don't think that that setup speculation is a good use of the town's resources today. Now you accuse me of being Nameless' partner because of this.

I never accused you of being an SK. You seemed to be really,

really

trying hard to shut down discussion about it, and I found it very strange.

Why is it anti-town to ask Nameless to elaborate on the reasons behind his scum pairings?

Scumpartner speculation Day 1 distracts the town and is generally next to useless. Nameless did it, I didn't like it. You didn't either. Great. On the other hand, you want to continue to keep the subject open and elaborate on it, further distracting the town - the last thing we needed was inevitably incomplete speculation on Nameless' part, instigating more walls of text which would be absolutely useless and distracting. That's anti-town. In the context of already attacking Nameless for scumbuddy speculation, I find that scummy.

I said this, not don. I have never attacked Nameless for speculating on scumparteners. In fact, I have not posted a word on it at all.

Besides, if it's so damn distracting, isn't Nameless ultimately responsible for causing that distraction by posting those speculations in the first place? This is extremely relevant because he posted another scum trio recently.

[Megatheory]

I was clubbed unconscious last night. I doubt that would have any effect on penguin's power if he really is a tracker.

Also, in case it's not clear, we are in LYLO. We have nine players now. 9 alive - 1 lynch - 2 kills = 6 which is a town loss barring some kind of miracle. This basically makes my plan on dealing with penguin an extraordinarily bad idea.

I'll post more later.

[Megatheory]

You're right that a townie can campaign against another townie, but there are different levels of certainty regarding one's target.I know when I get to a high level of certainty I have caught scum. Don is projecting a level of certainty that is so high, he is probably right.

Since it's been brought up, my belief that don or Nameless should be lynched doesn't come from a belief that one of them absolutely has to be scum. Initially, I only believed that lynching one of them would have a good chance of hitting scum and provide a lot of information on the other.

The last statement you made about this does not synch up with what you've been saying all along. Even earlier in the same post. You say that if one flips town, the other doesn't 'absolutely' have to be scum, but that's not consistent with what you're saying at other times. Your earlier statement sets up Don for a high fall if he's been wrong about Nameless all along and you have, meanwhile, distanced yourself from the blame

No. Abolustely not. I will

never

distance myself from lynching Namless or don if he is lynched today. I accept full responsibility for the consequences of my actions.

Also, it's pretty ridiculous to suggest I'm doing something to distance myself from blame when I've put all of my effort into creating this situation. If I am scum, I did a very poor job of executing any kind of plan that accompolishes what you are suggesting.

No way to lynch either now unless someone switches their vote. I (and the town)need more information for day 2 so I am going to switch. Note: I don't think Nameless is more scummy but if he flips town and I live through the night my vote will stay on don, no exceptions.

Unvote. Vote Nameless (L-1)

Why did you switch your vote at this time? It seems really early, suspiciously early even, especially when ger had not voted yet.

MTs wording seemed to be pretty clear that "

Either

he is scum and dropped a case that he saw wasn't working,

or

he is town and caught a scum, but became discouraged too soon. Unless you can suggest an alternative scenario with evidence, then the best play is to lynch one of you." i.e. one possibility is NL is scum and don is town, the other is that NL is town and don is scum. There are no other possibilities, unless you search the thread and come up with evidence. He neglects the possibility of 2 scum parties, 2 towns, partners busing, etc. Furthermore, he uses burden of proof to further suggest that none of these other possibilities are possible.

You keep harping on the specific wording of this one point, but you aren't looking at the whole situation. I posted that don or Namless should be lynched, then Namless comes along and heaps dirt on me but doesn't address the reasoning in what I posted. At that time, I thought it was highly likely that he was scum, and when he posted what he did, I thought he was just ensuring his survival and limiting his liability by protecting don. I posted reasons to believe that lynching one of them was the best play, and Namless suggested that it was equally likely that they were both townies but he didn't provide any reasoning behind it other than that it was a possibility. So, thinkin that he was scum, I insisted that he provide some kind of evidence that the two of them were townies.

nameless lynched himself. don_johnson has all of one vote, it took seven to lynch. not only did nameless lynch himself, he did it instead of claiming a role, which if looked up in the mafiawiki is described as a possible "gamebreaker", that role being nurse. nameless self vote was quite possibly the single most anti-town action taken by a player on day 1. no wonder he got lynched.

Um, you jumped all over him when he implied that he wouldn't self vote like he promised he would. Besides, why are you heaping dirt on a dead townie?

knowing that if nameless didn't self hammer, he would be outing himself as scum, why on earth did juls change her vote?

This is something you and I believed, but I don't remember Juls expressing this opinion. You are putting our words in her mouth.

@ geraintm: why did you not vig me? it would have saved us a hell of a lot of trouble.

WTF? How can you expect ger to vig you when you posted this in twilight:

a mislynch is not terrible. if town has vig's, please be careful. if we see two nk's, a misfired vig shot could put town in a lynch scum or lose position tomorrow. if people want to be mad at me and not move their vote tomorrow that's fine. i will have to assume you are scum. look at the wagons, not just the drivers. scum throw votes on with little to no reasoning more often than not, and if your were paying attention to the last few pages you should have picked up on some of those.

i would like there to be discussion. if we decide to string me up, so be it. if we have a vig, i am a much better nightkill.

I really don't care for this line. You've just told us how you shouldn't be lynched, you have one (count 'em ONE) vote on you, and you're already bargaining for a night kill instead.

i don't look at it as "bargaining". i am just trying to help town. lynching me would put us at even steven tomorrow from the looks of it(assuming three anti town roles.) all i'm saying is that town

allegedly has a vig

. from the flavor and number of the kills per night we should reasonably believe that we can clear him. sure there is wifom, mafia could send in a no kill, but at least i would be cleared without a mislynch.

porkens: do you have any other suggestions for a lynch? or would you rather force through the day, like juls, without discussion, investigation results, etc.?

i am a dead man walking. that much is clear. you guys just need to make the right choices to win this game. if anything, my day 1 play should be a complete null tell, so lynching me will prove nothing.

Hmm... I don't like this line of reasoning. If you don't want to be lynched, asking to be vig killed instead doesn't help the town if we are in LYLO like it appears we are. It's also weird to suggest that you should be vigged and also suggest that your day one play is a nulltell.

Your quote conveniently misses the "Either" which MT originally had. Otherwise, I would probably agree that your interpretation might be valid.

i do not miss the either. either i am scum and dropped a case that wasn't working(no mention of why). or i am town who has caught scum. mt's theory is that i am either scum or town. it does not directly translate into nameless' alignment.

This pretty much captures my thought process perfectly. However, if some idiot comes along and insists that I have to push for don's lynch because of it, I won't dignify that bullshit with a response.

just noticing this, but from my point of view, if ip is telling the truth(and barring the existence of an investigation immune role), juls would be the only unconfirmed on the bandwagon. i am wondering if mine and nameless' argument could have caused a complete self destruction?

What? Both of us were on the wagon and we're anything but confirmed, obviously.

i am mistaken. ip does not confirm mega. mega's posts seemed very town to me on day 1, but i could be skewed because we shared the point of view that nameless was scummy. i am not trying to spread misinformation. i would appreciate it if we could converse a little less argumentatively here on day 2. i am trying to help. my statement was pure speculation. juls, you are now calling for a lynch of on of two people. what was so scummy about mega from day 1?

You only thought I was town for about 10% of the day. The rest of the time, you accused me of committing a mountain of scumtells. You only decided that I was town when I helped you get what you wanted (a Namless lynch). So what makes you so sure that I'm town?

I will post an analysis after I have heard about geraintm's night actions. I think it is important to know if he used his vig ability or his watcher or ability or neither. And it is important that conversation move fast because our deadline is Thursday. I am disappointed. Let me be disappointed. I will post more after I hear from geraintm.

In twilight, you said you suspected myself, don, and canadianbovine. CB is dead and you are clearly pushing for the two of us that are left, so nothing has changed. The only reason to hold back your analysis is to limit your liability if ger's actions contradict your assessment.

No, MTs statement breaks down into a) a is town, b is scum b) a is scum, b is town. With no other possibilities, unless "you" can find sufficient evidence that there is another case.

you are completely wrong here. mt never states why player "drops" the case. mt never states that b must be scum. you are wrong. i am not going to argue with you.

Your quote conveniently misses the "Either" which MT originally had. Otherwise, I would probably agree that your interpretation might be valid.

i do not miss the either. either i am scum and dropped a case that wasn't working(no mention of why). or i am town who has caught scum. mt's theory is that i am either scum or town. it does not directly translate into nameless' alignment.

Ok, so based on the wording of the first statement, it allows for 3) a is scum, b is scum. But, the implication of MT's statement still is if either flips town, the other is scum. Which is convenient for mafia if both nl and don were bickering townies.

No, this is not convinient for mafia at all. If you lynch one, you still have to make a case to lynch the other. Scum do not gain an advantage by suggesting what I have suggested.

Suggestion about trackers: perhaps, if our tracker tracks someone who went out and they did not target a dead person, we have the tracker lie and said that they did not go out at night? Assuming mafia have a role-blocker or something, then us assuming someone that went out a night and did not kill is a town could prove fatal, meanwhile the knowledge that someone did go out and is not part of the mafia makes our power roles vulnerable to attack, pegs some people as vanilla and the mafia will still have an easy time at picking power roles. If we ever decide to string up one of our trackers I think we should then ask because if there is a possible mass confirmation of townies than we can possibly more easily avoid mis-lynches...

Are you really suggesting that powerroles should lie to confuse the scum? Don't forget that such a lie would confuse townies as well, which is a bigger blow to the town then it would be to the scum.

also the wifomic nature of your question helps to clear him. my bottom line: are you going to clear him for playing dumb? i have won as scum by playing dumb. its one of the easiest ways to skate through to endgame.

I get your point, but which is more likely: ger is playing dumb, or he really made a mistake regarding his role? In my experience, townies do make these kinds of mistakes. Do you have any reason to believe that he is playing dumb outside of this one mistake?

I was clubbed unconscious last night. I doubt that would have any effect on penguin's power if he really is a tracker.

what

?

That's flavor I got last night. I was clubbed unconcious.

Also, in case it's not clear, we are in LYLO. We have nine players now. 9 alive - 1 lynch - 2 kills = 6 which is a town loss barring some kind of miracle. This basically makes my plan on dealing with penguin an extraordinarily bad idea.

What kind of miracle?

I don't know, that why I'm so sure we're in LYLO.

[Megatheory]

nameless lynched himself. don_johnson has all of one vote, it took seven to lynch. not only did nameless lynch himself, he did it instead of claiming a role, which if looked up in the mafiawiki is described as a possible "gamebreaker", that role being nurse. nameless self vote was quite possibly the single most anti-town action taken by a player on day 1. no wonder he got lynched.

Um, you jumped all over him when he implied that he wouldn't self vote like he promised he would. Besides, why are you heaping dirt on a dead townie?

sorry, not trying to heap dirt on the poor bastard. i don't remember "jumping all over him". i think that might have been you.

I would prefer a lynch over a no lynch, even if it is Nameless. We need to know some stuff in order to have a direction D2. If you turn up as town I will take a very thorough look at the others on your wagon.

i agree. not to argue, but nameless promised to self hammer.

if he doesn't then he is scum.

that is pretty good information going into day 2, and town will only lose townies to nightkills instead of having an extra mislynch.

You didn't jump all over him, but you did expect him to self vote after he promised to. It makes no sense to expect him to do something and then call it the most anti-town action in the game.

knowing that if nameless didn't self hammer, he would be outing himself as scum, why on earth did juls change her vote?

This is something you and I believed, but I don't remember Juls expressing this opinion. You are putting our words in her mouth.

nosirree bob. i had this conversation with juls. she may not have felt the same way, but i explained this line of reasoning directly to her.

So, really, you're just imposing your will on her. She saw what you wrote, but that doesn't mean she believed in it, and if she didn't believe in it, she didn't have to act on it.

i am mistaken. ip does not confirm mega. mega's posts seemed very town to me on day 1, but i could be skewed because we shared the point of view that nameless was scummy. i am not trying to spread misinformation. i would appreciate it if we could converse a little less argumentatively here on day 2. i am trying to help. my statement was pure speculation. juls, you are now calling for a lynch of on of two people. what was so scummy about mega from day 1?

You only thought I was town for about 10% of the day. The rest of the time, you accused me of committing a mountain of scumtells. You only decided that I was town when I helped you get what you wanted (a Namless lynch). So what makes you so sure that I'm town?

nothing really. it is not odd in the least for someones suspicions to shift during the course of this game. sometimes players can have revelations about other players and shift their opinions quickly. it wasn't the fact that you jumped the wagfon with me that made me think you're town, it was your reasoning behind it. the fact that you were home last night helps a bit. though i wonder why you were clubbed...

I'm concerned that you are buddying with me. You keep supporting and defending me. On the other hand, you're defending me with what looks like solid logic. I keep coming up with reasons to suspect you, but nothing really sticks and overall, I can't build any kind of case or call you scum and actually believe it. I think you are town. If you are actually scum, you're good at using safe language because every theory I come up with is counteracted by the wording you use.

also the wifomic nature of your question helps to clear him. my bottom line: are you going to clear him for playing dumb? i have won as scum by playing dumb. its one of the easiest ways to skate through to endgame.

I get your point, but which is more likely: ger is playing dumb, or he really made a mistake regarding his role? In my experience, townies do make these kinds of mistakes. Do you have any reason to believe that he is playing dumb outside of this one mistake?

his play is terrible. i outlined the few other reasons i have. his post that significantly reduces my contribution to day 1 to "nothing of substance" and "more wasting time on the doc" just doesn't sit right. you can write it off as my ego, but i am tempted to do a pbpa of that post and point out everything he decided to glaze over. also, his denial of evidence is scummy. refute evidence. don't deny that it is applicable when it clearly is. a definition

straight from the mafiawiki

is not something that should be dismissed with a simple wave of the hand. has anyone in this game been in a game with a JOAT? if so, how many abilities did they have?

Do your PBPA. We need to lynch correctly today, so we need as much information on the table as we can get.

i am also not sure what to think of mega's "clubbing"? it may be an attempt to smear IP. IP admitted to going to mega's house. why would he admit that if there was some sort of foul play? also, what kind of role goes around clubbing people anyhow?

The only role I can think of that would club people is a roleblocker. If penguin is a roleblocker, he could club his target and claim that he tracked them going nowhere. But there's no way to prove that, so, really, we're back to square one: we have to decide to lynch him or not based on his merrits.

Or we can wait and see what his result is tomorrow.

TO ALL: if we are in a possible lylo, how do we feel about a mass claim? if we choose to do it, how would we go about doing it?

I don't like a massclaim with 9 living players. Too much wiggle room for scum. Plus, a massclaim would make things a hell of a lot easier for penguin.

@Everyone- I understand Lylo to mean you must lynch scum or lose the game that day? I think that we'd only be in that state tomorrow, and that's IF we cant catch scum today. What am I missing?

In a typical mini, you have three or four scum. 9 players - 1 lynch - 2 kills = 6 remaining. At that point, scum control the lynch.

That's a

horrible

breadcrumb, bro :p

But, even though, maybe even

because

, you flubbed your role, your claim makes 1000X more sense now, so I believe ya.

That post wasn't really a breadcrumb at all because it came after ger claimed and

in twilight

. It makes perfect sense for scum to have a plan of action by the time the day is over. His "breadcrumb" proves absolutely nothing. Why does his mistake make his claim more believable anyway?

also, i know he says he wanted to be honest, but why admit to being a "one shot vig" in the first place? it sets up the scenario for the explanation of a nk later in the game. this is a huge liability for town.

honestly, i don't believe him at all.

why mention the vig role, well i have always been taught to be truthful as town, don't lie. if i hadn't mentioned the vig and then later killed someone, how would i have explained that?

I didn't catch this before. It's pretty bizzarre to expect a townie to lie.

ger conveniently clears himself and the other tracker. however, later in the game he could easily make the case that he only knew IP was out. this still leaves IP in the hotseat for a mislynch. yeah, i'm reaching a bit, but its plausible. making others look town can easily help any one of us look more town. like i said, i'd like others input. noone seems to be sure of anything. i guess i am just believing IP's "dumb" act more than ger's, and due to the fact that neither one of them was targeted in any way makes me think at least one is lying.

i have not cleared penguin at all. all my result shows is that no one came to penguins house, penguin can still be doc, SK or mafia. if you are thinking me an penguin are paired because i have cleared him, then you are making assumptions based on very foolish thinking.
i hope you go back now and rexamin your thinking knowing that i have not cleared penguin at all

That's not what you claimed at first:

so was kinda weirded out and realised the blunder when i got told by mod i was a watcher and not tracker. my plan was, thinking i was a tracker, track penguin, see where he went and that would confirm him one way or the other.
all i got was that penguin's house was empty.

Can you describe what your watcher power is supposed to do?

MTs wording seemed to be pretty clear that "

Either

he is scum and dropped a case that he saw wasn't working,

or

he is town and caught a scum, but became discouraged too soon. Unless you can suggest an alternative scenario with evidence, then the best play is to lynch one of you." i.e. one possibility is NL is scum and don is town, the other is that NL is town and don is scum. There are no other possibilities, unless you search the thread and come up with evidence. He neglects the possibility of 2 scum parties, 2 towns, partners busing, etc. Furthermore, he uses burden of proof to further suggest that none of these other possibilities are possible.

You keep harping on the specific wording of this one point, but you aren't looking at the whole situation. I posted that don or Namless should be lynched, then Namless comes along and heaps dirt on me but doesn't address the reasoning in what I posted. At that time, I thought it was highly likely that he was scum, and when he posted what he did, I thought he was just ensuring his survival and limiting his liability by protecting don. I posted reasons to believe that lynching one of them was the best play, and Namless suggested that it was equally likely that they were both townies but he didn't provide any reasoning behind it other than that it was a possibility. So, thinkin that he was scum, I insisted that he provide some kind of evidence that the two of them were townies.

(we're talking about nameless right =P) Let's assume two town are seriously debating. And both are under close scrutiny for lynch. Mafia can subtly put forth a statement that one or the other has to be scum. Come day 2 and one of the lynchee flipped town. The mafia pick up the other wagon (which had to have evidence if both were in consideration for lynch) and continues under the premise that one of the two had to be scum. Thus, the mafia ensures two mislynches. Meanwhile someone comes along and says, "hey, what if these two guys are just two townies" Your line, puts burden of proof to find evidence that BOTH are town. There may not be evidence, both townies probably had scummy actions due to them being lynch candidates, but, the possibility is discredited due to lack of "evidence".

You didn't quote the part of my post that pretty much destroys your assertion, so I'll tell you again: Scum gain absolutely, positively nothing by doing what you suggest. If the scum leads the lynch on one, they still have to push for the other. There's no subtlety in it either. You're asserting that I wrecklessly setup up two misslynches but did absolutely nothing to protect myself. If you're going to insist that I can distance myself from those lynches, I've got news for you:

I will never distance myself from the Namless lynch or a don lynch if it happens

.

Can you go back and find where NL said it was "equally" likely that they are both town. I don't think NL ever protected don. NL's posts seem fairly confident that don is scum but concedes the possibility that both NL and don are town.

You've got me there. I can't find anything like that. When I wrote that part you quoted, I just wrote my thoughts from memory.

I'd really,

really

hear why Juls thinks don is so suspicious because I can't find

anything

on him at this point.

[Megatheory]

Well, that's lynch. I liked Juls' case. I sure hope don is scum...

[Megatheory]

I don't know what you mean about "making things a hell of a lot easier for penguin" if we massclaimed. Are you saying making it easier for the tracker to do his business is a

bad

thing?

I'm not convinced that he is really a tracker. Why are you so convinced?

I will never distance myself from the Namless lynch or a don lynch if it happens.

But...

I'd really, really hear why Juls thinks don is so suspicious because I can't find anything on him at this point.

Huh?

Yesterday I said don or Nameless should have been lynched. The logic I used implied that don was scum if Nameless flipped town. Even if I never voted for him, my actions contributed to his lynch today somewhat.

[Megatheory]

Dan: Why did you kill me? And why did you claim on day 3? You could have won if you had claimed vanilla, IMO.

Also, I played horribly this game. I haven't played mafia in a while, and it's not unusual for me to play this bad when I haven't played in a few months. But that's not really an acceptable excuse for doing very little scumhunting on day 2. I didn't have much confidence in myself after the Nameless lynch. I'm surprised Antronach was scum. I had Dan late in day 2. I should have been all over Porkens on day one, his play was pretty much classic scum play throughout the day. I guess I was too forgiving.

I'm glad we won, even if it was in the lamest way possible.