I'm just going to post my unfinished analysis because I think the ultimate post may be too big otherwise. I'm up to ~halfway through Page 13 right now, so I'm not sure of the events after that which led to Gremwell being tied for the lead lynch. I hope you will indulge me and wait for me to finish my analysis before lynching me, if you intend to.
I find charter's last post (504) interesting and rather presumptuous in stating I will definitely be the lynch. His gung-ho-ness also seems to contrast with opinions expressed in Post 78
charter Post 78 wrote:
Every game I've been in with a lynch in 3 or so pages or less for day one has resulted in a town loss... More later.
And posts 219:
charter Post 219 wrote:ITS NOT SCUMMY BECAUSE HE DOESNT GAIN ANY ADVANTAGE DOING IT AS SCUM THAN AS TOWN. I UNVOTED BECAUSE I DONT WANT A LYNCH ON WHAT, PAGE 5? I ALREADY SAID BOTH OF THESE.
...and 221:
charter Post 221 wrote:And do you know what we do with players that don't post farside? WE REPLACE THEM!!!!! YAY!! Wanting to lynch the tracker (or anyone actually) when they haven't made a single post, well it just strengthens my point that you don't care who gets lynched.
See the parallel between this and me?
Yet you seem to want to lynch me as soon as I replace in.
Going from the top:
I don't find Occam's speculation about the Bulletproof role is particularly suspicious. I am suspicious, however, of the way Monkeyman doggedly bandwagoned him, continuing into Post 166 which I found *amazingly* scummy:
MonkeyMan576 Post 166 wrote:Also, it should be noted that since Occum voted for Ceph, it is unlikely that they are both scum. That means either they are both town, Occum is scum and Ceph is town, or Ceph is scum and Occum is town. Since they have both exhibited questionable behavior, I think the first scenario is unlikely, I think they are on opposite teams. That means if we lynch one and they are town, then we can lynch the other one day 2(unless better info comes along), and they will likely be scum.
Looks like setting up Occam for the lynch knowing he is town, and then pre-emptively trying to suggest Ceph is the opposite alignment i.e. scum, to implicate him the next day. It’s one of the scummiest posts I’ve ever read.
farside22 Post 174 wrote: What if for a second I believed you as town. What happens when you put yourself at L-1 and some scum still hasn't voted. Your vote, your single vote is in terms self lynching at that point. Deal with it.
Self-votes irritate me as much as you but this is a bad argument because if the scum hammers without *good* justification there will be consequences for them.
Occam Post 189 wrote: Plus how is a BP SK not a really really bad thing? wtf...
That’s a pretty standard SK actually.
farside Post 190 wrote: Only people I ever seen do a quick hammer was scum. Proff. Look at every game and tell me a townie that did it. Anything else you wish to dismiss?
No way. The only times I’ve seen it happen were: scum in LYOL (obviously), Natirasha as townie first day of an open, and Occam (kind of) as a townie first day in an open.
Occam, if you don’t mind, please explain/reiterate exactly what you hoped to achieve by your early-day self-vote.
Occam Post 197 wrote: It was a directive intended to achieve a very simple objective - namely, ending the unfounded, quickly forming wagon on me.
A self-vote shouldn’t accomplish that, it should be due to you actually convincing people you’re not deserving of their votes.
Occam Post 201 wrote: 3. I also want you to realize and admit that my self-vote in this game was not anti-town.
I don’t see why she should say that- it’s not clear what your self-vote accomplished for either town or scum at this stage in the game.
Post 234, by Gremwell, whom I replaced is a bit scummy so I shall quote here in full:
Gremwell Post 234 wrote:Since they dominated the last few pages, and most people seem to have an opinion one way or the other, how many people think that either one of farside or occam is defiantly scum?
the reason I ask is that if we can at least agree on that much then we could lynch one and vig the other, I doubt anyone would disagree with a one for one trade
of course this hinges on one of them being definite scum, not just two townies slugging it out
its just a suggestion, as I can see this conflict clouding the rest of the game.
I personally don’t see anything yet pointing to one or the other of them definitely being scum, so don't agree with this post (which was later revealed as an apparent gambit).
I find Post 236 by farside odd. She seems to be contradicting herself by saying:
farside22 Post 236 wrote:They do something scummy and say look at the scum jump at ti.
but then says:
farside22 Post 236 wrote: Scum love to jump on opportunity when it comes to voting and lynching someone that is town.
charter Post 239, directed at Gremwell/me wrote: No. You are scum. Once again, you ignore everything important in the game to give us this. You've commented on virtually nothing that's happened in this game. Also, you're clearly trying to gather everyone else's opinion on this matter without giving your own, testing the waters if you will.
This seems an odd thing to say “you are scum" and not even follow it up with more substantive argument for me/Gremwell being scum. Indeed charter then happily changes his attention to farside at this point in the post, as can be seen if you look at the post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=234
Empking Post 245 wrote: Yeah, this last page of Gremwell's posts have been bad.
I don’t like this, he only made two posts that page and one was simply “waiting for others to weigh in". The other, as I have admitted, was somewhat scummy.
farside Post 246 wrote: Players who you think are scum is all I want. You have been really quiet this game compared to our last it it makes me itch.
FYI, to counter this accusation which will inevitably extend to me, Gremwell was at least as lurky in another game I played with him, Serum & Steel, as he was in this.
Empking wrote: Gremwell: The worlds most anti-town plan is mostly why I suspect him.
Even scummier than Monkey’s plan in Post 166?
charter Post 253 wrote: Ha. Thought it seemed wierd, but I didn't really read it carefully. But yeah, MM is now a solid number two, right after farside, and slightly above gremwell in terms of scumminess. He has done a lot of what gremwell has, with the not commenting on anything. Gremwell even refused to take a stance on his own question to everyone else, after it was pointed out that he needs to.
I feel like I can flip a three sided coin for who I want lynch today. Farside, gremwell, and MM all have their own side. Now off to find one...
Why have I been boosted to number 1 since then?
I agree with Oman in Post 252 in that I am also somewhat suspicious of Monkey's wariness to be linked with Empking in Post 250, and I'm slightly suspicious of the little exchange between Empking and Monkey in Posts 255 and 256.
Post 261 by me/Gremwell:
Gremwell Post 261 wrote:Ok I was hoping to get more people's thoughts on that but I think a day's long enough, anything more and it will get lost in the shuffle.
obviously I didn't actually want a plan like that to go through, I proposed it to get reactions, mainly on how fariside and Occam would respond in regards to the idea.
What I got is that as far as I could tell neither really that sure the other is scum, Farside criticized my plan and Occam voted me saying that he dosn't think farside is scum at all.
from the others I got a lot of FOS's, which was expected, but not much else.
In conclusion, my personal feelings on farside/Occam is right now two townies, though there is something to be said about the level of how personally they seem to be taking the argument, but that said personal shots and vendettas loose games.
Not a big fan of unverifiable gambits like these myself. I don't see how it can be interpreted as particularly scummy though, especially as he said he concluded both of farside/Occam were actually *town* (i.e. he wasn't trying to throw suspicion around in a scummy fashion through the gambit).
charter Post 265 wrote:Since Oman's 3 sided coin landed on Gremwell.
Unvote, Vote Gremwell
Even in the guise of a joke actually deferring your vote to dice is real scummy.
Monkey Man Post 268 wrote:I'm not voting for Gremwall because I think Occum is scum. I agree with Farside that selfvoting is scummy and I am also suspicious of him claiming that BP townie is worthless.
I'm afraid I can't reciprocate the lack of suspicion. Even though MM and Gremwell may not have found each other suspicious, I do find MM suspicious. Just pointing that out, and you can take it as you will: as either scum bussing, or as two different players interpreting another player differently from within the same townie role.
charter Post 276 wrote:Not lynching someone because of their role is dumb. While doctor can be useful, in hands of scum it's way worse. Stop trying to start a lurkerhunt as well and comment on the people that are talking, they've said plenty.
Why is the doctor particularly good at helping scum?
And I will admit having read some of Gremwell's posts I did re-check my role pm to ensure I was indeed isolationist.
^^^ Yes, you can only take that as WIFOM, oh well.
Cephrir, why in Post 281 did you agree with charter that the doctor is far more useful for the scum than the town. Have I missed something about the usefulness of the doctor in this setup? I could protect scumbuddies, but if someone missed their kill that night, they would know who I protected and if I flipped scum this would implicate them also. It really isn't that amazing a scum ability imo.
Monkey, please explain the "witholding opinion" accusation levelled at Gremwell in Post 295? His scummy posts seem to be 234 and 261, and the scumminess lies in pursuing a gambit which involves wagoning two players. So what's the deal with the "withholding opinion" accusation?
I like Drunken Piper for Post 300. And if I didn't slip this in earlier I also find it *somewhat* suspect farside apparently didn't notice the existence of an SK in the game.
charter Post 312 wrote:Well, if people don't start voting Gremwell soon I'm just going to move on to MM. I still think Gremwell is the scummiest, but MM and farside are right behind.
No matter how blatant you make your opportunism about lynching, it's not going to make it less scummy.
MonkeyMan Post 313 wrote:Like I said, I'd be glad to vote for Gremwall if necessary for a lynch, but certainly not as a threat.
Same as above. You should be advocating who you want lynched the most. There's a very good chance at least one of your top 2/3 suspects is in fact not scum, so you shouldn't be happy to go with "whomever".
Occam gets into a meaty attack on me/Gremwell in Post 320:
Occam Post 320 wrote:[74] Here you get the first scent that something's awry. Grem says "I'm not saying we should lynch the BP" which is good. But then he makes sure to say "we should be weary of Occam for the suggestion" - but I never suggested that we lynch the BP. Still though, Grem hasn't done anything overly scummy thus far.
Being wary of you isn't really the same thing as actively finding you suspicious. I think that's a fair enough attitute to take, even though I didn't find your BP role speculation particularly damning.
Occam Post 320 wrote:[184] Here, grem says a couple of incorrect things. First, he says that the scum do "the most night killing" in a setup where there are two other NK roles. Then what the rest of he says once again goes against what he said earlier about the BP role being pretty useless for the town. The worst thing he says is:
He's not going to be a wasted Vig kill
When that's exactly what a Bp scum would be - a wasted vig kill, because he wouldn't be a kill at all. That's part of what makes him dangerous as scum - durp.
I think you are misinterpreting him, he was probably half-humorously referring to the high likelihood of a vig actually killing townies, and stating that in the probable (3/4 or 2/3 chance, depending on number of scum in the game) event that a BP is town, they cannot be mis-vigged like this.
Occam Post 320 wrote:[191] Grem points out that he said a BP SK would be the worst case scenario - which sort of makes sense, I guess, except it's just as bad on a S.C.U.M. as it is on the SK, since they're essentially the same exact thing once there's only one S.C.U.M. left. I just wonder why he'd say this, and it seems like a BP SK is the worst case scenario for scum, but either a BP SK or a BP S.C.U.M. are equally bad for town - so this seems like a scum-driven comment.
Yes, because scum are totally open about their motivations when talking publicly. And what would Gremwell-scum have to gain by making his S.C.U.M.-fear of a BP SK public?
Occam Post 320 wrote:[261] This is Grem's backtrack post, where he says he was just doing it to get reactions, and that he didn't actually want his plan to go through. He then says he thinks both myself and farside are townies. I think this post is straight bullcrap.
What do you think his scum-motivations for a gambit which results in him classifying you both as townies could be?
Biggest suspects right now: Monkey and charter.
