Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Elmo]

Hmm. Tajo, if you assume I'm town, and that we'd lynch Korts-SK, Des would be killed, and RR+DGB would lynch me for the town loss tomorrow, which do you think is better?

Des, if we lynch Korts, then we'd have five alive tomorrow; minus the mafia kill, that puts us with four alive in LyLo. So we couldn't practically lynch me to confirm my results, right?

It's interesting to note there isn't actually an endgaming mechanic that I can see, but it's pretty much the same, I think.

[populartajo]

Hmm. Tajo, if you assume I'm town, and that we'd lynch Korts-SK, Des would be killed, and RR+DGB would lynch me for the town loss tomorrow, which do you think is better?

Des, if we lynch Korts, then we'd have five alive tomorrow; minus the mafia kill, that puts us with four alive in LyLo. So we couldn't practically lynch me to confirm my results, right?

It's interesting to note there isn't actually an endgaming mechanic that I can see, but it's pretty much the same, I think.

So do you think DGB is scum?

[populartajo]

Just pointing out that if Korts is the only mafia left we are going to look very funny postgame.

[Elmo]

No, I think she's town; but pretty much every other realistic scenario leads to a town win. Meh.

Also, yeah, I think Adel is probably laughing her ass off. How long have we been at this, now?

[populartajo]

No, I think she's town; but pretty much every other realistic scenario leads to a town win. Meh.

Also, yeah, I think Adel is probably laughing her ass off. How long have we been at this, now?

So if you think shes town with RR town also who is the other scum left? Me?

[Elmo]

I think everyone's town except Korts. My point is, that's literally the only way we can lose, from my point of view. (I think.) So if you've got two plans, one which allows it to possibly happen, and one which doesn't, it seems better to use the one that doesn't.

Thinking about it, I think we lose either way if DGB is mafia.. it goes, lynch tajo, I claim prob guilty on Korts, I'm vigged, Korts is lynched, someone is killed for the mafia win. Well, isn't this a pointless excercise.

[Raging Rabbit]

What is the difference between mislynching Tajo and mislynching Korts?
In either case Elmo can still investigate one of Tajo, Korts and DGB and we can still chose to kill Elmo and confirm his investigations leaving us with the choice of lynching whoever is left at the end. The only difference is that lynching Korts

definitely

avoids a prisoner's dilemma. Do you see a problem with this RR?

Yes. Clearly we can't lynch Elmo to confirm investigations, as tomorrow's lynch is a form of LYLO. Korts' vig essentially allows us an extra kill before that, which we can use to confirm Elmo.

It is kind of ridiculous to be arguing this so much since it's very probably Korts, but I'll personally feel a whole lot more ridiculous if we lose as a result of not covering our options.

[Raging Rabbit]

I think everyone's town except Korts. My point is, that's literally the only way we can lose, from my point of view. (I think.) So if you've got two plans, one which allows it to possibly happen, and one which doesn't, it seems better to use the one that doesn't.

Thinking about it, I think we lose either way if DGB is mafia.. it goes, lynch tajo, I claim prob guilty on Korts, I'm vigged, Korts is lynched, someone is killed for the mafia win. Well, isn't this a pointless excercise.

If DGB is mafia, you'll get an innocent on Korts...

[Elmo]

No, I meant that the only realistic way we can lose, from my point of view, is if there's a SK and a mafioso.

From my point of view, it's really obvious that Korts = SK. Therefore, it's not a question of SK / Mafia / SK+Mafia, it's a question of SK / SK+Mafia. If it's just SK, we win. That's my reasoning.

[Elmo]

Okay, I'm pretty much past it, if you've got anything to say before I get my beauty sleep, now's the time.

I'm okay with hammering whoever is at L-1. I'm not actually sure which offers the better chances; very helpful, I know.

[destructor]

What do you make of my analysis, des?

It's very reasonable. But I'm still paranoid about the possibility of two scum remaining and how not lynching Korts today in this situation will inevitably lead to a town loss. I'm very confident that he's the last scum, so there's a good chance that all this worry will have been for nothing.

Des, if we lynch Korts, then we'd have five alive tomorrow; minus the mafia kill, that puts us with four alive in LyLo. So we couldn't practically lynch me to confirm my results, right?

You're right. This was the advantage of having Korts kill you. hmm

Would you be willing to self-hammer right after you claim a result, aiming to do so before a kill goes through?

Otherwise, yeah, this is a big advantage in RR's plan. I'm still really caught up on the whole two scum left thing. *pulls out hair*


(I just realised that a SK is more likely to win in a prisoner's dilemma in this setup. They can't be nightkilled. Mafia

might

win if they convince the townie to lynch the SK. The Town can never win.)


Ok. Tajo, sorry, but I am agreeing with covering the bases. If RR is scum, he's devious. Otherwise, we're going to win, whether you're mislynched or not.

Unvote
Vote: populartajo

Korts, if you kill anyone other than Elmo tomorrow, or before Elmo claims a result, I'm voting you on principle!

[Elmo]

With five alive before the kill, we need three to lynch. I don't see getting a lynch together before the kill happens as viable, unless I'm missing something. Especially when we're, y'know, talking about it here.

[populartajo]

I bet many of you dont even think Im scum.
Just thinking why dont we try this exercise with DGB?

[destructor]

I was actually thinking that DGB would be a better choice. I've never seen you play as scum, but you're reactions aren't like what I'd expect from scum either and can be contrasted with Korts', even though he's claiming LA.

RR, are you still around? I'm willing to vote DGB if you are. I know that rofl seemed to breadcrumb a DGB protection, but I don't know if she was a likely nightkill. It might have been that scum tried to kill SK-Korts on the day he protected or DGB, if he protected her at all.

Tajo, you should probably change your vote to DGB because I don't think Korts is going to be lynched to day. You're the deadline lynch at the moment.

[populartajo]

I think RR or Elmo have a reason to think DGB is more prob town than me but I cant find it. I know these guys are around so correct me if Im wrong.

Unvote Vote DGB.

[DrippingGoofball]

On top of this, that Korts hasn't been involved in this discussion increases the chances of him being anti-town. As town, I would expect him to be contributing, looking for the last scum since, as a Vig, he'd

know

that there's Mafia left alive. Instead, he's mostly stopped posting altogether.

Excellent point.

[populartajo]

On top of this, that Korts hasn't been involved in this discussion increases the chances of him being anti-town. As town, I would expect him to be contributing, looking for the last scum since, as a Vig, he'd

know

that there's Mafia left alive. Instead, he's mostly stopped posting altogether.

Excellent point.

Excellent timing, as you would say.
Opinions of the current plan and such?

[Elmo]

If it's not Korts, I'll hammer and investigate Korts.
If it's Korts, I'll hammer and investigate Tajo.
Changes to that, say now, preferably in CAPS LOCK mode.

I personally think Tajo is more likely to be town than DGB, for whatever that's worth. But, again, I think they're both town. I rather doubt that RR will change his mind on his ordering, he seemed quite convinced that DGB was more townish if I remember correctly.

Hi, DGB.

[DrippingGoofball]

We all seem to agree that Korts is the scummiest player, and most likely a SK. All the signs point to it. The speed of his shots into the day. The premature, gung-ho shooting down of Guardian, whose line of questioning hinted at being a tracker. His lack of interest in today's discussion.

Fourteen players, 3 mafiates, one SK, would be standard balance.

Everyone is solidly town, except Korts. Why are we making our lives complicated?

I unvoted poptajo in order to lynch the scummiest player, rather than poptato, who has not exactly been setting my scumdar on fire, or anyone else's for that matter. Korts is the logical play for today. Not poptajo, and not me, either, for that matter, for the same reasons.

[DrippingGoofball]

If Korts is an SK, he can seriously muck up with any plan we might have tomorrow. He's been cooperating; but before he claimed vig, his choice of target was very flimsy indeed. And in Guardian's case, clearly anti-town.

[Elmo]

<-- bedtime. Catch you later.

[Korts]

"clearly anti-town" is a huge overstatement. I had valid suspicions that were shared by others.

[populartajo]

Well, DGB. I was thinking the same thing but if Korts is the only mafia left (SK) or Elmo is lying then tomorrow des, RR and the other prob townie between you and me should lynch any of them according to actions/claim.
The only scenario we are talking right now is which of us has more probs of being a hidden scum that wrecks the town tomorrow if Korts is indeed the SK.

[DrippingGoofball]

The only scenario we are talking right now is which of us has more probs of being a hidden scum that wrecks the town tomorrow if Korts is indeed the SK.

That'd be Korts, hands down. As for all the other players, they are in my mind solidly town, and I wouldn't be able to pick one from the lot as scummier than the rest if you put a gun to my head.

[DrippingGoofball]

"clearly anti-town" is a huge overstatement. I had valid suspicions that were shared by others.

Still you shot pretty quickly.