Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[DrippingGoofball]

Kinda.

I didn't realize vollkan was dead scum until this morning, haha. Well. Three scum and one SK, methinks all we have is an SK. That would be Korts.

[Raging Rabbit]

If that's so, we win either way.

If we're wrong about him, which tactic do you find superior?

[Adel]

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of 1151

_{with 6 alive, 4 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
¬Korts:

3

:destructor, populartajo, DrippingGoofball
populartajo:

2

:Raging Rabbit, Korts,

No Lynch:

none

not voting:

1

:Elmo,

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 4's deadline is December 31st at 08:08 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[populartajo]

RR, were you confirmed at some point in the game?

[Raging Rabbit]

Yes. Elmo claimed an innocent on me and we can't be scum together.

[populartajo]

In what possible scenario are you scum? 2 GFs right?
Do you think Elmo is telling the truth?
Thoughts of DGB?

[Raging Rabbit]

Either that or a 5 person scumgroup, I suppose.

Elmo's most likely to be scum if Korts isn't the SK, for reasons I just explained.

DGB is very likely town, because of rofl's likely protection amongst other things. Almost, but not quite, as likely as des imo. My plan still makes sure she doesn't win as scum, though.

[Elmo]

Hmm. Unless I'm mistaken, if either Tajo or DGB are mafia, they have a ready-made plan to win if we lynch Korts, based on RR's opinion of me. I'm thinking maybe it's actually in my best interest to be vigged tomorrow, if that's the case. But they're probably not mafia, so... I can't think of anything that Korts could do to get out of it, though.

I hate the way we seem to be going back and forth on this. Note that I cannot effectively do anything other than hammer Korts at the moment. I am loosely fine with either, but I'm constrained by what the confirmed innocents are thinking/doing, so if you could settle on one or the other, that'd be nice.

30.5 hours.

[Raging Rabbit]

Hmm. Unless I'm mistaken, if either Tajo or DGB are mafia, they have a ready-made plan to win if we lynch Korts, based on RR's opinion of me.

What kind of a surprise move like that is even remotely possible, unless we're facing more than one scum?

[Elmo]

Logically, if either of them are mafia, then either Korts is a vig or we're facing more than one remaining scum. In either case, it should be trivial for them to kill someone, probably Des, and then push my mislynch based on your opinion of me, after Korts is dead.

My reasoning is simply that Korts is very likely doomed SK, so the only thing that can screw us is a mafioso. I don't think it's at all likely, but it changes my mind about which plan is likely to be better. Like I said, I think it's probably academic, but since we're here.. (shrug)

[Raging Rabbit]

Logically, if either of them are mafia, then either Korts is a vig or we're facing more than one remaining scum. In either case, it should be trivial for them to kill someone, probably Des, and then push my mislynch based on your opinion of me, after Korts is dead.

If there's another mafia in the game, I believe it makes a lot more sense for Korts to be telling the truth. 5 anti town roles out of 14 players is just overkill.

What you've outlined is possible if we lynch Korts today. If we lynch tajo, you'll be vigged by Korts prior to the lynch, which makes it impossible to push you. Thus we essentialy gain an extra town kill before LYLO by not lynching Korts today.

[Elmo]

That's.. roughly what I just said.
I don't think another mafioso is at all likely, but it remains the only way to lose.
What I said is not only possible but actually quite likely if we lynch Korts today and the game doesn't end, so bearing that in mind, I have a preference to lynch Tajo. I am basically assuming you won't change your mind, since people rarely do. (I don't even know why you suspect me, but whatever.)

[Raging Rabbit]

Yeah, I took it as "ready made plan to lynch to win if we lynch tajo", instead of Korts for some reason. Shouldn't be posting this late.

I don't really suspect you, it's jus that I really

don't

suspect des and DGB and you make more sense than Tajo as the last scum since I think the game will be more balanced without the addition of a cop.

Anyways, guess it's up to des/DGB right now.

[Elmo]

Yeah, I think that's fair; I mean, I don't suspect them either.

So yeah, Des, I think lynching Tajo offers a better contingency, now I think it through. Even though he's prob town. Blah.

[destructor]

=/

Let me try to sort this out...

If we lynch Tajo, one of the following is likely to happen.

• 1. Tajo is Mafia.
  • 1.1. The game ends.
    Town wins.
    
    1.2. Day 5 starts with 5 alive (probably 4 Town, 1 Scum). Elmo investigates Korts, claims result, and is killed by Korts.
    • 1.2.1. Elmo is Mafia. The game will probably end.
      Town wins.
      
      1.2.2. Elmo is Town. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, DGB, RR, des (probably 3 Town and 1 Scum)
      • 1.2.2.1. Elmo claimed a guilty on Korts. We lynch Korts. The game will probably end.
        Town wins.
        
        1.2.2.2. Elmo claimed an innocent on Korts. We lynch DGB.
        • 1.2.2.2.1. DGB is Mafia. The game will probably end.
          Town wins.
          
          1.2.2.2.2. DGB is Town. Day 5 continues with 3 alive - Korts, RR, des.
          The Town

          will

          lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc
          , in which case we have a 3-player end-game with 1 confirmed innocent (Korts, on account of him being an Vig).
  2. Tajo is Town. Day 5 starts with 5 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, Elmo, des (probably 3-4 Town, 1-2 Scum). Elmo investigates Korts, claims result, and is killed by Korts.
  • 2.1. Elmo is Mafia.
    • 2.1.1. The game ends.
      Town wins.
      
      2.1.2. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, des (probably 3 Town, 1 Scum).
      Town gets 1 mislynch before being end-gamed
      unless the last scum is a Mafia Doc, in which case we get 2. A 5 player Mafia groups seems unlikely. The last scum would probably be SK-Korts.
    2.2. Elmo is Town. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, des (probably 1-2 Town, 1-2 Scum).
    • 2.2.1. Elmo has claimed a guilty on Korts. We lynch Korts.
      • 2.2.1.1. The game will end.
        Town wins.
        
        2.2.1.2. Day 6 begins with 3 alive - DGB, RR, des.
        The Town

        will

        lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc.
      2.2.2. Elmo has claimed an innocent on Korts. We lynch DGB.
      • 2.2.2.1. DGB is Mafia. The game will probably end.
        Town wins.
        
        2.2.2.2. DGB is Town. Day 5 continues with 3 alive - Korts, RR, des.
        The Town

        will

        lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc
        , in which case we have a 3-player end-game with 1 confirmed innocent (Korts, on account of him being an Vig).

Nothing above takes the threat of a Mafia kill into account. If the Mafia are still alive, we'll be in a prisoners dilemma, that is, the town will lose.

Which is one of the biggest problems I've had with RR pushing the plan at all. The plan is supposed to protect the town from the possibility of there being another Mafia member left but it doesn't seem to take the risk of being put into a prisoner's dilemma into account. If Korts is an SK, his play tomorrow will not be to kill Elmo at all. It will be to kill someone else and make us figure out whether we can trust Elmo's results. If there is Mafia still alive, their play would be not to kill and hope the town lynches Korts anyway, at which point we'd enter Day 6 with 3 alive and be end-gamed when they submit a kill. In fact, if Korts

doesn't

kill Elmo, whichever way we lynch tomorrow we lose. A SK

will

put us in a pseudo prisoner's dilemma by NOT killing Elmo tomorrow. (Assuming Tajo isn't scum.)

Regardless of what result Elmo claims on Korts, what incentive is there for him, as an SK, to kill him for the town? Killing Elmo will only either confirm all of his investigations are true or kill the last member of the Mafia, both of which make winning as SK harder. This is a pretty big hole in the plan.

I don't see anyone as more likely to be scum than Korts. If we lynch him today we don't have to worry about prisoner's dilemmas, we will probably win straight away and if we don't, we'll go into Day 5 with 5 alive knowing that there is one Mafia left and be able to play accordingly.

Not lynching Korts today means we're left with questions if he refuses to kill Elmo and if we have two scum left, the town is pretty much all but guaranteed to lose.

I say we lynch Korts today then go back to old fashioned scum-hunting tomorrow if we don't win before that. If I've missed something, someone let me know.


Regarding the normality of the setup, I thought "normal" referred to the nature of the roles included and not the combination of them. I don't think two Godfathers is unbalanced in a 14 player setup and I believe that's more important to consider than what is conventional, especially with a mod like Adel.

[destructor]

On top of this, that Korts hasn't been involved in this discussion increases the chances of him being anti-town. As town, I would expect him to be contributing, looking for the last scum since, as a Vig, he'd

know

that there's Mafia left alive. Instead, he's mostly stopped posting altogether.

If Korts' lynch doesn't end the game, I'd rather hear Elmo's result on DGB tomorrow. I think he's expressed more reasons for believing everyone else to be town. So far as I can tell, he's got the least pro-town read on DGB. Is this right, Elmo?

[Elmo]

Yeah, that's mostly because I find it hard to get a good read on her. I do think they're both town, though.

RR's plan basically assumes there's only one scum left, I think. I believe that's why he's not accounting for scenarios where we face prisoner's dilemma. I'd have to loosely agree.

The things with Korts killing someone else was part of my 'problem'. I think what would happen is, someone'd die, we'd all look at Korts and go o_O why isn't Elmo dead, and he'd be left with nowhere to go. I think. I suppose it's strictly better than autolosing by confirming my investigation of him, but I can't see him not being lynched post haste in that scenario.

My problem is that "old fashioned scum-hunting" tomorrow probably ends in my lynch. Generally, I like the idea, but the specifics are lousy.

Lemme post something similar to the list...

[Korts]

Yeah, I haven't been participating in the discussion of possibilities mostly because I have bigger things looming at the moment than mafia, and partly because the decision isn't down to me anyway and I much rather would like to see someone unbiased go through with the numbers than mess up and be accused of fiddling with the probabilities and stuff.

I'm pretty sure the remaining scum is either pop or DGB. Other than that I have nothing in particular to add.

[Raging Rabbit]

My plan works of two base assumptions:
1. There is only one anti town player remaining.
2. Both RR and des are pro town.

If both if these are true, we win 100% of the time. Note that all of the cases in which we lose des outlined above require either him or myself to be scum.

Regardless of what result Elmo claims on Korts, what incentive is there for him, as an SK, to kill him for the town? Killing Elmo will only either confirm all of his investigations are true or kill the last member of the Mafia, both of which make winning as SK harder. This is a pretty big hole in the plan.

Korts simply knows that if he doesn't kill Elmo, we auto lynch him. He's in a sort of Catch 22 since once Elmo claims a guilty on him we lynch him anyways, but there's really nothing he can do to prevent this unless there is another anti town role involved, which I pre-assumed there isn't.

The mafia kill makes no difference other than preventing the endgame situation you were talking about. Killing anyone but me or des allows further knowledge to be gained (e.g if DGB is killed and Elmo got an innocent on Korts, we know it's either me or des). Killing either of us doesn't really change the number - with 4 alive we still have a vig kill and a lynch before losing.


Now, let's examine the two situations in which don't auto win if we follow my plan - the contradictions of my base assumptions - and see how they play out if we lynch Korts today:

1.

There is more than 1 anti town player remaining

. I assume that has to mean there's another mafioso along with Korts-SK. (Note: still working under the assumption that des and I are innocent.)

Lynch Tajo - If the mafioso is Tajo, we still win. If he isn't - both Korts and the mafioso can kill innocents tomorrow, putting us into prisoner's dillema.

Lynch Korts - we basically have a 50% chance to guess the mafioso correctly tomorrow - Elmo's investigation narrows things down, and if we're wrong we have to speedlynch D6 before he gets a kill in or we lose.

The odds we get by lynching Korts are better than those we get by lynching Tajo, by I think this situation is unlikely and the improved odds in the case of one mafioso make up for that.

If for some reason there are two mafia remaining, lynching Tajo today again offers the better odds.

2.

Either des or RR is scum

. (Note: still working under the assumption that there is only one anti town player remaining).

Lynch Tajo - we lose, see above explanation by des.

Lynch Korts - there is no way we'll risk the game on either myself or des being scum, so we're guaranteed to lynch one of the other players and then try speedlynching another one when he turns town. So it's a clear loss as well, and it really doesn't matter which option we choose.

3.

There is more than one anti town player remaining; either des or RR is scum.

Very unlikely, but I find this analysis amusing:

Lynch Tajo - Korts SK will want to kill an innocent tomorrow to put the town in prisoner's dillema, so he's likely to choose either me or des for being most likely innocent. That gives him a 50% chance to hit the last mafia and lose himelf the game.

Lynch Korts - See above, town lose.


Basically, the only situation in which lynching Tajo worsens our odds is if we're facing an SK + mafioso tag team, and both des and I are innocent. I think the assured win in the case of one mafioso remaining more than makes up for that.

[destructor]

Yeah, I haven't been participating in the discussion of possibilities mostly because I have bigger things looming at the moment than mafia, and partly because the decision isn't down to me anyway and I much rather would like to see someone unbiased go through with the numbers than mess up and be accused of fiddling with the probabilities and stuff.

I'm pretty sure the remaining scum is either pop or DGB. Other than that I have nothing in particular to add.

I've seen you posting frequently around the site.

Also, finding the last member of the Mafia doesn't require you to look at numbers. It would have more to do with making cases.

[Raging Rabbit]

What do you make of my analysis, des?

[populartajo]

I was just going to post that Korts is a very active poster.
If we are looking about worst scenarios and risking a win to a hidden scum then Korts

has

to be one of them.
I find unlikely that we have another scum in the setup TBH but in all scenarios we are getting rid of an unwanted death and a very very likely SK.
I dont like how many theories are considering me as scum. I know its for prob reasons but the only thing that indicates that Im scum that I can think is that I made a mistake before hammering FL, my main suspect with vollkan, the other scum.
Many things could be said about other players and you all are not even considering that prob.

[Elmo]

Eh, RR did it better than me. I'm not at all worried about a solo mafioso, since I'd (we'd all) have to be completely wrong about Korts and one of DGB/Tajo. I do think that 4 mafia + SK sounds excessive to me, but it's the only thing that can go wrong.

About 16 hours, 45 minute left. Des, are you going to be around before deadline beyond now?

I kinda want to sleep soon. (Don't ask.)

[destructor]

What is the difference between mislynching Tajo and mislynching Korts?
In either case Elmo can still investigate one of Tajo, Korts and DGB and we can still chose to kill Elmo and confirm his investigations leaving us with the choice of lynching whoever is left at the end. The only difference is that lynching Korts

definitely

avoids a prisoner's dilemma. Do you see a problem with this RR?

[Korts]

I've seen you posting frequently around the site.

Also, finding the last member of the Mafia doesn't require you to look at numbers. It would have more to do with making cases.

I've been posting in those games where I had something to pursue. Here, the decision comes down to one of me and tajo, and you're deciding on probabilities. I don't have much say or sway in matters at the moment.

About making cases; I don't have the time resources to go back and make a proper case right now.