Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Raging Rabbit]

Elmo should hammah, I don't think it matters much if Adel's online or not. If he's killed by scum before claiming investigation, we have Korts vig DGB and than lynch him. Assuming we aren't against scum+Sk, that's an assured win.

[populartajo]

There is not much I can argue about when my lynch is only a consequence of maximizing the odds for finding scum.
So yeah Im ok with my lynch as long you dont screw it tomorrow.
In the other hand, if RR or des, or even DGB are scum Im going to nominate one of them for an award.

[Adel]

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of 1126

_{with 6 alive, 4 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
¬populartajo:

3

:Raging Rabbit, Korts, DrippingGoofball
Korts:

2

:destructor, populartajo

No Lynch:

none

not voting:

2

:Elmo,

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 4's deadline is December 31st at 08:08 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[Elmo]

Elmo, are you okay with being killed by Korts for RR's plan?

Yeah, I don't think it's ideal because it involves me dying, but then I'm biased on that note and I don't really have a plan that would be better or probably acceptable. But I think we win anyway. (shrug)

I'm hammering Tajo and investigating Korts, right? People please say if you're okay with me doing it now, I don't want to be premature if we're missing something. Deadline snuck up fast, actually, but apparently we know what we're doing, so eh.

[DrippingGoofball]

Let's do it folks.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'd say we're good to go.

[destructor]

My only reservation about RR's plan comes from the fact if he's Mafia we will probably lose. I'm paranoid. But yeah, I'm down with the plan. Lynch Tajo today, investigate Korts tomorrow.

Make it so, El-mo.

[populartajo]

Im getting a little paranoid with different people as I really expected people like des, Elmo, RR and DGB to play optimally. I know Im town so if one of these guys is scum then Im pretty much giving him/her the win with my(our) lazy attitude.
My problem with the plan is why dont we lynch our source of an unwanted kill tomorrow (Korts) rather than someone who doesnt make sense as scum. (me)?
If we lynch Korts and if we assume a 4 team scumgroup then there would only be one scum left with 5-4 players alive and many scum connections waiting to be analyzed.
My question here is what happened to scumhunting?
I know I might sound a little paranoid but if the idea is maximizing the odds of winning then why RR and des, even me, are assuming that the other is town or genious scum?

[destructor]

Well, that's what my plan was. Lynch Korts and control the potential number of kills per day. Korts is compulsive either as an SK or a Vig, so if he's dead, even as a vig, the town will have more control of who dies and when.

I'm still not 100% sure on RR because I think a 4 man scum team of 2 Goons and 2 Godfathers would be balanced in this setup with Korts as Vig or SK (that's also taking a Cop and Tracker into account), which is my greatest issue with the plan as it is. Also, the number of kills involved, yours then Elmo's, seems like overkill. I'd still support a Korts lynch today since I don't see you (Tajo) as scum.

Elmo, please wait before hammering!

RR, if there's one more Mafia member left, what role do you think they are?

Also, Elmo, do you think Tajo is scummy?
I'm going to look at RR's case on Tajo again.

[populartajo]

Des, to help you with you reread, I pushed either FL or volkan as scum yesterday, my supposed scumpartners.
I think I need to reread RR since I definitely think you are 100% town, I believe Elmo's breadcrumbs and I find DBG-FL pretty hard to believe as scumpair.

[destructor]

One of the most attractive features of a Korts lynch is that if the game continues to Day 5, we can

know

that there is one Mafia left and will have at least 2 days to work out who it is with the option of no lynching for further investigations/actions.

Actually, if we lynch Korts, I think the plan should be to have Elmo investigate DGB or Tajo and vote for No Lynch immediately, hopefully before scum get a kill in, then repeat it again in Day 6. If we pull anther deathless day off, Elmo could claim a result on every player and we'd still have 5 alive, which would give us at least two lynches to find the last scum.

[Elmo]

I think two godfathers would be overly abnormal. If there's something in Adel's modding history that I have missed, feel free to point it out. Hmm, skimming, I see that Nice Shot had two mafia roleblockers. The convention of a single godfather is much stronger, though, seeing as thematically he is 'head of the family'. I suppose this comes down to the debate of whether players are right to rely on non-explicit conventions or not but I'm not suspicious of RR, I also don't think there is any realistic chance of the inuit mafia kill being blocked when rofl protected him... I mean any one of those on their own is probably not very likely, the only way he can be scum is IF he's got past our collective scumhunting and IF he's a godfather because there are two and IF some bizarre circumstance that would account for rofl. That's pretty unlikely.

I don't think Tajo is scum. He hasn't posted a great deal, but I think what is there has that 'townish sheen' about it, in my mind. I think RR's main gripe seems to be lack of raw material to look at, and I'd probably be agreeing with that if I hadn't played with him before and thus had a better handle on how he 'feels' as town. He seems very similar to how he was as town, albeit obviously more experienced. The way he said he expected to get a town vibe from Vollkan/Yos but didn't, and actually got a very neutral vibe pretty much matched up exactly with my feelings, for example. I think that's hard to fake.

DGB is a bigger question mark in my mind, but I don't have any reason to suspect her, and there are certainly points in her favour. At minimum, they've done a fairly good job of distancing, faking interactions, etc. If it were me, personally, I would probably be lynching Korts. Take that as you will; I have said roughly why. He has basically been on my shitlist since early day 1.

While we're here: DGB, what was it that made you so confident that Vollkan was bussing Yos? Or was that just posting style? Or is that a trade secret?

I would point out that we have approximately 47.5 hours before deadline hits. Practically speaking, either DGB or RR would need to move their vote to him in order for me to hammer Korts, even hypothetically. Part of the reason I wanted what we're doing sorted out ahead of time is so we wouldn't have the traditional deadline scramble.

Honestly, I haven't been thinking about the game that much since around the point we agreed it was probably straightforward. But I can recall roughly my level-of-suspicions, and that's them.

[Elmo]

By overly abnormal, I mean that this game is set up to encourage speculation over the setup, open roles, mod history in the first post, etc. And all the role interactions and revealed roles indicate a fairly normal, standard game. If I remember correctly, she has said it would be a normal game, as in Large Normal, New York, if it weren't for the deep south mechanics. Now, I wouldn't take it too far, but all that makes "bastard mod" setups like multiple godfathers - and indeed, godfather without a cop - relatively unlikely in my mind.

[Elmo]

Why'd you think Tajo's scum, Rabbit?

Ever since his entry post he seems to happy sticking to the backround, posting little substance that almost always goes along with popular opinion. I get this feeling he doesn't really care much about who gets lynched, which is very different from the town-tajo I played with who seemed much more emotionally invested in the game.

Okay, so RR's gripe is not amount of material per se; that's not accurate, sorry. His response is roughly this:

I usually get more involved in small games and in games near to Lylo. Nice Shot Mafia is a perfect example of this and you can ask des if it helps you increase your possibilities of finding scum..

I think maybe this factors in as well, if not more:

Vollkan,

Im admitting I am a lazy bastard

and just thought that one (if not both) of you and FL had to be scum since I have townie and neutral reads from other players.

Now I'm biased because I have to admit to being something of a lazy bastard too in various games at various times. But I don't see anything inconsistent with being town (or more likely to come from scum) coming from Tajo. I think being in the background is a natural result of not being involved with the game, which would make sense to me. I just.. ugh. If you're not feeling motivated to get stuck in the game, then regardless of alignment, a lot of that behaviour follows naturally from that. Yes, it's somewhat anti-town in a manner similar to lurking because of the problems we're having now in terms of figuring out his motivation, but I don't think it's telling of alignment, personally.

I'd also note that, CKD apart, the majority opinion has mostly been correct, I think. I don't think willingly following the majority is a significant tell under those circumstances. Apart from CKD and BM, it's been largely scum wagons. I think it's hard to blame him for adapting at least a vote pattern that looks interchangable with "lynch everyone who I don't have a town read on" when not only pretty much everyone else has done that, but it's been pretty effective too.

..I am now irrevocably destined to get a guilty on him after we lynch Korts, of course. </pessimism>

[destructor]

Eh, I thought the setup in Nice shot was abnormal so far as convention goes, but it certainly wasn't unreasonable.

Do you think the setup is balanced with a Cop, Doc, Tracker, SK/Vig vs 2 Goons and 1 GF? Didn't you say you thought scum would at least have a Roleblocker?

[Elmo]

My balance is kind of shaky, that's why I keep asking everyone about it I did think the mafia should have a RB, but that was based on a kinda skewed viewpoint seeing as things have gone as they have. Also, I pretty much assumed that cop & doc = mafia RB, in retrospect for basically no reason. I guess godfather just doesn't seem that powerful to me. But I've never modded my own setup, so. Oh, yeah, and I thought the mafia would have some way of stopping the KortsKills either way.. they're basically sitting ducks. But I suppose that's true in any setup where there's a SK. I didn't think that far through it.

Vig is kind of controversial (obvious statement is obvious), I personally think that vig would make it at least town-leaning, but then we've heard nuff about Korts from me. I think cop+doc+tracker vs. sk vs. 2 goons + gf could work fine. My main thing would be how the number of potential deaths interact with the power roles, but then again you've got quite a benefit from the two info roles w/ doc. I would still be liable to give the mafia a RB, maybe in addition to GF, though; it would avoid cop+doc better than having a GF, I think. The point is that claimed innocents are still pretty useful, and can be very useful if you happen to lynch the GF before approaching endgame, even after the cop dies. But like I said, shaky... I suppose the mafia RB still has to find the cop in the first place. Meh. But yeah, it's certainly not terrible with 7 townies. I still can't wrap my head around the way deep south changes the balance, it seems more dependant on the players remaining attentive. I don't think it's that different to 'normal' mafia, though, and it definitely seems at least reasonable to me.

[destructor]

I'm about to go to bed. Slightly random and highly likely not to be useful, but anyone have any ideas of why Adel called this "Crackers"? She said she called her last game Nice Shot because she thought a Hider being killed while hiding would play a pivotal role in the outcome of the game. I guess it very vaguely alluded to the presence of Hiders in the game. the only thing that came to my mind about Crackers! was C(op) + (T)racker = Crackers, but who knows what that's supposed to mean. They can crack the setup open? eh.

[DrippingGoofball]

unvote

[DrippingGoofball]

While we're here: DGB, what was it that made you so confident that Vollkan was bussing Yos? Or was that just posting style? Or is that a trade secret?

Violent accusations coming out out of a clear blue sky.

vote: Korts

[Korts]

Do I have any chance of convincing you otherwise?

[Raging Rabbit]

Im getting a little paranoid with different people as I really expected people like des, Elmo, RR and DGB to play optimally. I know Im town so if one of these guys is scum then Im pretty much giving him/her the win with my(our) lazy attitude.

Actually Elmo or DGB lose as scum if you follow my plan.

If we lynch Korts and if we assume a 4 team scumgroup then there would only be one scum left with 5-4 players alive and many scum connections waiting to be analyzed.
My question here is what happened to scumhunting?

Scumhunting becomes kinda obsolete here. Lynching Korts if he isn't the SK leaves 4 alive tomorrow, which means we'll be at almost LYLO - a mislynch means we have to speedhammer scum before they get a kill in D6 to win. No lynching is an option, but since our choice is likely between Elmo and tajo anyways that doesn't do us much good. With my plan we simply win if the setup fits my set of very reasonable assumptions, the chance that it doesn't imo is much lower than our chance of mislynching tomorrow - especially since Adel said she wanted to run this as a test for the Deep South mechanic, to see how it works in a game that by all other means is essentially basic. Secondguessing ourselves at LYLO is fun an' all, but I'm willing to set scumhunting aside for an almost guaranteed win.

I know I might sound a little paranoid but if the idea is maximizing the odds of winning then why RR and des, even me, are assuming that the other is town or genious scum?

I partially reread des earlier, and think he's just extremely unlikely to be scum here. He's consistantly both using good logic and giving me a good gut feeling for one, and Yos des and vollkan would have to completely fake that 3 way row they had earlier for them to all be scum together, which I think is very far fetched at best. If des is scum, he deserves to win this, and will anyways - it's not like anyone's gonna choose him as our one and likely only lynch if we lynch Korts today.

As for me, like des said I'd have to be a second godfather to be scum here, which I never saw happen in the same faction. I was also a likely doc protection, since rofl proclaimed me town. On top of that, why would I make up this plan and prolong discussion when I could just help Korts die and still be considered confirmed tommorow? Seems counterproductive to make everyone rethink themselves like that.

Also, the number of kills involved, yours then Elmo's, seems like overkill. I'd still support a Korts lynch today since I don't see you (Tajo) as scum.

Why overkill? We leave a minimum number of people alive, essentially eliminating the chance of one of them being scum, before hammering our likliest target. It's not like Korts is given any wiggle room, if he doesn't vig whoever we tell him to tomorrow he immediately gets lynched.

RR, if there's one more Mafia member left, what role do you think they are?

Well, second GF doesn't make sense, and a doc/roleblocker would've saved vollkan. So I have to go with goon here.

[Raging Rabbit]

tajo reads slightly better upon another look, and the explanation for his being less emotionally involved here is reasonable. I think he's essentialy played a low profile pro town looking game, with did attack both remaining scum yesterday - but it's still possible for him to pull that off as scum imo, the most unlikely thing being the excessive bussing. Elmo looks more likely to be scum than him at this point, though my plan still requires a tajo lynch for Elmo to claim an investigation tommorow.

As for game balance, GF + 3 goons vs. cop + doc + tracker + vig seems excessive, but trading the vig for an SK seems unbalanced the other way around. The two setups that make the most sense to me are GF + 2 goons + SK vs. cop + doc + tracker + 7 townies (Korts is scum), or GF + 3 goons vs. doc + tracker + vig + 7 townies (Elmo is scum).

[Raging Rabbit]

A Korts lynch isn't the worst thing that can happen, of course, I've been suspicious of him since day 1, still believe he's most likely to be our last scum and will be glad to have been proven right, so I'll go along with it if that's what everyone prefers. I still think my plan maximizes our options in case I'm wrong about Korts, though, and if we lose this to Elmo/tajo/DGB I'm definitely gonna be saying I told you so.

What made you change to Korts, DGB?

[DrippingGoofball]

The quick trigger on Guardian didn't look too good.

[Raging Rabbit]

I agree, but we win anyways if he's the sole SK. If he isn't - didn't you already say you agree that my plan maximizes our probability of winning?