Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Raging Rabbit]

No idea what Elmo's talking about, but it sounds like speculating about it will mostly help scum.

I like my plan too, it just gets too dangerous with the possibility of 2 kills tommorow. We should massclaim just to make sure there isn't anything we're missing, then lynch Korts. tajo should start.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm around, I can start.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm around, I can start.

[Elmo]

If we're going to start the party by lynching Korts, I need to be told who to investigate tomorrow. I think we'll have game over, but there may not be much time between sending it in and me eating a NK if we do have more scum.

For that reason, I'd like to be that hammer, if we lynch someone; I can wait until Adel is around, hammer, send in the investigation, and post the result back here before scum get the kill/RB in. I can't think of any benefit to me as scum for doing this, offhand.

[destructor]

I agree that you should hammer. I think Tajo would be a good investigation.

Not sure why we should be massclaiming now. Why not after we lynch Korts?

[Adel]

a mistake free votecount!


˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of 1104

_{with 6 alive, 4 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
¬populartajo:

1

:Raging Rabbit
Korts:

1

:destructor

No Lynch:

none

not voting:

4

:DrippingGoofball, Elmo, Korts, populartajo,

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 4's deadline is December 31st at 08:08 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[Korts]

Not that my opinion matters at this point, but RR's plan sounded good. If you lynch me:

5 alive-RR, des, Elmo, DGB, pop
a)Elmo succeeds in both getting a result and claiming it
b)Elmo is killed before he can claim a result

Either way, mafia will probably try to prevent Elmo claiming by killing him.

4 alive-RR, des, DGB, pop
Possible scum is {des, DGB, pop} if Elmo doesn't claim results, otherwise change scumlist accordingly. If Elmo doesn't have a guilty, only an innocent, it's still fifty-fifty.

If you leave me alive, and Elmo is killed within 48 hours of the day, I will keep my shot to myself and you'll have two lynches for two or three possible scum(depending on whether Elmo can claim.)

[populartajo]

Im here. Sorry for my sudden absence.
I skimmed the last three pages and Vollkan was lynched (yey, was right again) and now Im thinking something I read somewhere, I think it was des. If Korts is a SK then I think its time to lynch him since we either win or we get rid of a possible complicate daykill.
I can start claiming and that matches my offer to lynch me if its still safe to do it. Im vanilla.

Vote:Korts.

I still think all my town reads are townies and that Im inclined to believe Elmo for that breadcrumb in the exclamation mark next to BM.
Either that or Im playing with a genius in the scum side.
Im at work right now and should be able to reread tomorrow. Just thought you would need my thoughts.

[Korts]

I guess I have to put my money where my mouth is.

vote: populartajo

It's up to the town now.

[Raging Rabbit]

I ran my plan again, this time on paper. If we assume we aren't against scum + SK, but rather a single SK or single scum, it's superior to lynching Korts. Here's why: (I'm assuming des 100% inncoent, if he's scum we lose either way)

If Korts is the SK, with the current plan we immediatly win. With mine, we have 5 alive tommorow and even if Korts manages to kill Elmo before he gets his investigation in, he'll still be the obvious lynch (a town of me, des, DGB, Korts). So bascially, we win either way.

If we're against a single scum -
current plan - lynch Korts - 5 remain
tommorow's scumkill - 4 remain
Elmo either gets an investigation in or gets killed, so it narrows down to a choice between two of (Elmo, DGB, Tajo), one of which is confirmed inncocent - most likely Elmo will investigate tajo and claim a guilty, so it narrows down to a choice between the two of them. Assume a 50% chance of mislynching. If we mislynch, 3 remain and we have a slight chance to hammer the last scum before he gets his kill in. The odds, basically, are slightly superior to 50%.

Lynch Tajo - already the 50% odds of winning the former plan offers in this scenario. But assuming a mislynch, we have 5 remaining.
Scum kill - 4 remaining.
If they kill Elmo - Kors vigs DGB - 3 remaining, then gets lynched. 100% win.
If they kill either me or des - 4 remaining, Elmo investigates Korts, then gets vigged - 3 remaining. If he comes up the last scum, we win. If he doesn't, we have an innocent on Korts that tells us DGB is the last scum. Again, 100% win.

Scum + SK really complicates things, and in this case my plan is far inferior if Elmo or DGB's the scum and slightly superior if tajo is, but I find that scenario highly unlikely.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but we're better off lynching Tajo today.

And DGB, just to cover our bases, claim please.

[DrippingGoofball]

Vanilla.

[destructor]

I'm still not sure that lynching Tajo is the best play. I see lynching Korts as ultimately leading to the same thing, only the town will have more control over who dies and when.

Why do you think that Tajo is Mafia?

[populartajo]

Prob V/LA since today until after Christmas, maybe more.

[Raging Rabbit]

I have some reasons for suspecting him I outlined earlier I believe, but more importantly it's just process of elimination. You and DGB are very likely town, and Elmo we need to investigate tomorrow.

I'm almost sure lynching Korts will lead to an immediate win, but lynching tajo today covers our options better.

[Raging Rabbit]

And I'm vanilla, btw. I suppose you are as well, des?

[Elmo]

Post.

I can't think of much to say. Just waiting for Des/RR to agree on which plan. Posting so I can't get replaced. Merry Christmas!

[Adel]

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of 1115

_{with 6 alive, 4 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
¬Korts:

2

:destructor, populartajo
populartajo:

2

:Raging Rabbit, Korts

No Lynch:

none

not voting:

2

:DrippingGoofball, Elmo,

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 4's deadline is December 31st at 08:08 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[Raging Rabbit]

Post.

I can't think of much to say. Just waiting for Des/RR to agree on which plan. Posting so I can't get replaced. Merry Christmas!

What happened to your opinion on the matter?

Happy Chanukah!

[Elmo]

After I think it through, there is a problem with my problem with RR's plan.

I... still really couldn't care, I think we just kill Korts now.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'm like 90% sure Korts is the SK and last anti town player, but I'm also almost 100% sure my plan gives us a better overall chance of winning this and will never forgive myself if we don't as a result of not following it.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm with RR.

[Raging Rabbit]

Vote tajo, than.

[destructor]

Hello. I hope you all enjoyed the christmas time. I apologise for not letting you all know before disappearing for a bit.

I think both plans are essentially the same so long as Elmo hammers and makes sure Adel is online to receive his investigation and give him a result.

Tajo, are you okay with being lynched today for RR's plan?
Elmo, are you okay with being killed by Korts for RR's plan?

Korts, are you okay with being lynched today for my plan?

[DrippingGoofball]

Vote tajo, than.

vote: poptajo

[Korts]

Korts, are you okay with being lynched today for my plan?

If that's the plan, sure.