Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Elmo]

Yeah. When we hit prisoner's dilemma territory depends on the number of scum. Is 1 SK + 4 mafia too much? Probably, so.. 9 -- lynch -> 8 -- mafia kill -> 7 -- Korts kill -> 6 is effectively LyLo with two shots at hitting scum. But we only get the one lynch before that. So, yeah, if Korts is a SK, we kinda have to figure it out today, I think.

Meh, I hate this kind of mechanic stuff. Let's see how much of Sens/FL I can reread before I tap out for the night.

[DrippingGoofball]

It's still claim time for vollkan.

[Elmo]

Yeah. When we hit prisoner's dilemma territory depends on the number of scum. Is 1 SK + 4 mafia too much? Probably, so.. 9 -- lynch -> 8 -- mafia kill -> 7 -- Korts kill -> 6 is effectively LyLo with two shots at hitting scum. But we only get the one lynch, Korts has no compulsion to follow . So, yeah, if Korts is a SK, we kinda have to figure it out today, I think.

I don't want to speculate about what happened to the mafia kill day 1.

Meh, I hate this kind of mechanic stuff. Let's see how much of Sens/FL I can reread before I tap out for the night.

[vollkan]

Firstly,

Claim: Townie.

I'll say now that I am somewhat bemused by the wagon on me. Des rightly takes fault with my failure to take note of Yos's vote being at L-1, but other than that I cannot work out what I am under suspicion for. For future accountability and to give me something to defend myself against, I'd like each person on my wagon to give an explanation of why they find me scummy.

@pop:

My crumbs:

Before the Guardian-kill, I made several points against Guardian. After the Guardian-kill, I posted this:

I would like people speculate as to why Guardian was killed. No, really.

Scumkill and vigkill are both likely possibilities. Scumkill because Guardian was basically uncovering a plan that could ensure a quicklynch, and vigkill because the same, which was a clear attempt to stop any more votes on CKD, implied a heavy connection between Guardian and CKD. Why do you think this question will help in any way?

Before the Kison kill:

I have this vague feeling Kison is scum. I dunno why, but I'll definitely look into this gut read properly when I have normal access (I'm currently through a proxy site right now, my brother blocked MS and the searchword "proxy" because apparently I'm spending too much time on MS...)

After the Kison kill:

Ok so I was wrong.

Also, I could've sworn I said how the Kison-kill could easily have been a vidgekill; can't seem to find it.

Before the Yos-kill:

Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching.

As much as I gathered, Yos starts out slightly reaching, but has a valid point in you apparently dropping much of the suspicion you had on CKD. He seems to be tunneling pretty much exclusively on you, though, and apart from an exchange with vollkan on the same topic, and the push on the obvious BM lynch, he hasn't really commented on anything else.

I agree that forb deserves suspicion. The Yosarian-suspicion I agree with to a lesser extent.

After the Yos-kill, the claim.

The deciding posts, approximately:

From Guardian:

ps: people unvote ckd, otherwise it seems that the scum could kill someone and change it from 8 to lynch to 7 to lynch. we don't want ckd lynched unless we want ckd lynched and have him hammered; if he is town and is at 7 votes, the scum can kill someone and get an instant lynch on ckd.

And this:

if ckd is town, lynch -1 basically means lynch, because mafia can kill someone, then there are 13 people alive, then it is 7 to lynch when it is now 8 to lynch.

so, realize that if you vote CKD now, and put him at lynch -1, you are effectively hammering him.

if you all are comfortable with that... then I'll find you suspicious for it.

CKD is under such suspicion and likely lynch that I would like to say some things in his defense, and I have a hell of a lot more I want to say today before ckd gets hammered. I prefer short days, but I prefer that we end days when we choose to, not because we didn't realize scum could kill someone and reduce the requirements to lynch.

From Kison, a general gut feel.

From Yos, basing a whole case on des on a reaching point.

RR, you're excluding the possibility that scum failed to send in a kill Day 2; BM was lynched pretty suddenly.

Also, I can live with it if you think I'm an SK and you want to keep me for vidging purposes.

I think that the breadcrumbs you made add credit to you being an individual killer - be it a vig or a SK. I don't think they are really evidence supporting you being a vig, though, seeing as it is an easy way for a SK to avoid suspicion. As in, having telegraphed your suspicions dodges the accusation that "the kills don't match your suspicions", but it doesn't really make it more likely you are a vig, if that makes sense.

[Elmo]

I would have to agree, I dislike the way this wagon has gone. I pretty specifically made note of it as something odd, not anything that I'd run you to L-1 for. I think this is disproportionate. Now, I've been bitten by bussy scum or just a very eager town before, but I really want to see a more solid case than just the thing with Yos. If he's scum, there's got to be more than that.

I also feel Korts' attempt to link me with Yos goes far beyond the natural interpretation into the scummy kind of reaching, especially since he just said Yos was actively trying to link to him. But perhaps I'm OMGUSsing slightly... it looks ridiculous, though.

Eh. Statement of the obvious, Vollkan is pretty good if he's scum here. I would like to believe that I'd go metagame him by reading some previous games where he was scum, but I know deep down it'll never actually get done. I am curious to see his %-list, if that's appropriate.

[Elmo]

I would like people speculate as to why Guardian was killed

{...}

Why do you think this question will help in any way?

Seems like something a real vig is more likely to say. It's not that strong, but eh.

Things are crystallising a bit. DGB seems to have got this far sans any serious scrutiny; I'd like people to say if they find her town, and preferably why.

roflcopter, what happened to your sens hate?

lurking is only one part of the equation of sens' scumminess

if we get a sens replacement bm is a good wagon

And I don't understand this progression. You called him obvscum, then seem to pretty much drop it after he's replaced. You basically jump onto the BM-wagon quite happily out of nowhere, actually.

Hey, Vollkan, when FL replaces in, she doesn't talk about Yos2 much. Why don't you push his lynch at that point, if you're trying to get him lynched at the time you're having a back-and-forth with her?

I'm wondering if BM really has that Jester magic, or if there was scum on that wagon. It seems to have taken off like wildfire.

[Elmo]

the fact BM's entire suspicion list jumped on him the minute a bandwagon was viable. She was on it, and I feel the most scum vibes from her.

What do you think of the other voters on that wagon? Why is she worse than them (e.g. roflcopter)?

[Elmo]

There aren't a lot of places where Sens is mentioned; rofl's "obvscum" stance and switch away is really the only interesting thing apart from Yos' lurker vote. I don't think you can safely read anything into the latter. FL's set of long posts is the only real thing from the role - they seem fairly.. unfocussed, for want of a better word, pretty much like you'd expect someone trying to get a grip on the game anew. I find it odd that she narrows in on DGB's behaviour towards BM, it seems fairly arbitrary.. the lack of analysis of Des - Yos is kinda worrying. It just feels unnatural to go concentrate on the BM wagon instead of looking at that, it seems a more "immediate" issue than the day 2 lynch, especially when you're primarily rereading day 3; again, I'm biased, Yos was creeping me out slightly with his first couple of posts, heh. (Yay meta.)

One thing I don't like is that she says Yos2 should be looked at closer, but doesn't seem to e.g. look up why Des suspects him. I think she asks if she missed reasons someplace, but it doesn't seem like it should take more than a couple minutes to skim back and get the overview of it. I don't think Des posts between then and when Yos is killed, but the direction of her posting doesn't seem to be towards Yos2, she doesn't ask him any questions, for example.

Overall, that is a megapost of bullshit to paint me red by using semantic arguments as well as blatant lies

I really fucking hate semantics. I would like you to clearly, concisely lay out the parts where he's definitely deliberately lied rather than misinterpreted, been incorrect, etc.

I find Vollkan's infatuation with "emotive phrases" or similar pretty odd. Yeah, you can sometimes manipulate people a bit by using loaded terms like OMGUS or whatever, but there needs to be some analysis of whether or not that's actually what they're doing. And he doesn't appear to go deeper than "she said it was OMGUS when it was not OMGUS and that is kind of scummy". The situations in which that kind of thing are useful are actually fairly specifc, in my view, so it'd make sense to look for them. I'm not (I hope) being critical, but I don't really get that.

916 seems horribly OMGUSsy. And fairly weak into the bargin. FL, could you sum up briefly exactly why you are voting Vollkan? (I suppose this is subsumed by what he already asked people to do, oh well.)

Calling it a night.

[Adel]

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of post 957

_{with 9 alive, 5 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

¬vollkan:

3

:DrippingGoofball, roflcopter, forbiddanlight
Korts:

1

:destructor
forbiddanlight:

1

:vollkan
Elmo:

1

:Korts


No Lynch:

none

not voting:

3

:Elmo, populartajo, Raging Rabbit

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 3's deadline is December 26th at 12:28 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[Raging Rabbit]

Yeah. When we hit prisoner's dilemma territory depends on the number of scum. Is 1 SK + 4 mafia too much? Probably, so.. 9 -- lynch -> 8 -- mafia kill -> 7 -- Korts kill -> 6 is effectively LyLo with two shots at hitting scum. But we only get the one lynch before that. So, yeah, if Korts is a SK, we kinda have

Not exactly. Korts' kill for today is done with, so assuming a mislynch and a scumkill that goes through we're left with 7 tomorrow. Now, without Korts this puts us in a situation where if the scumkill goes through we're at close to lylo tommorow, we'll have 6 left and a missed lynch means they can kill again early d5 and (assuming a 3 person scumgroup) win the game. With Korts, who kills as we choose to not get lynched/because he's actually town, we get today's lynch - which surely won't hit scum if we kill Korts - plus his kill tomorrow - the equivalent of the alternative's option's lynch, choosing 1 of 6 people - and if both fail and all scum kills go through we're at a very miserable situation, but still haven't lost. This looks like slightly better odds to me, but the factor of keeping the probable SK alive is quite indimidating and I'm really not sure yet. We also have to take into acount the possibilty of a 2 person scumgroup + SK which isn't that unbalanced in a 14 player game with potenially few power roles, mafia kills possibly getting prevented and Korts potenially being part of a second scumgroup. Confusion ensues.

I think DGB's town, her day two play and approach to BM in specific seem to come from a pro town point of view and are hard to fake. I suppose she could be throwing me off, but I'm going with my gut on this one.

Not seeing the case against vollkan at all, I have him as pretty neutral.

People who seem somewhat scummy and I need to take a closer look at - FL, tajo.

[destructor]

4am posting!

I've decided that now is not the time to work out what the deal with all the night kills is. Assuming that we're missing some because Korts-SK was targeted by Mafia is speculation and not some I'm particularly confident about.

Elmo's looking more town than FL and I'm thinking Korts isn't the lynch today.

Unvote
Vote: fobiddanlight

[Korts]

There aren't a lot of places where Sens is mentioned; rofl's "obvscum" stance and switch away is really the only interesting thing apart from Yos' lurker vote. I don't think you can safely read anything into the latter. FL's set of long posts is the only real thing from the role - they seem fairly.. unfocussed, for want of a better word, pretty much like you'd expect someone trying to get a grip on the game anew. I find it odd that she narrows in on DGB's behaviour towards BM, it seems fairly arbitrary.. the lack of analysis of Des - Yos is kinda worrying. It just feels unnatural to go concentrate on the BM wagon instead of looking at that, it seems a more "immediate" issue than the day 2 lynch, especially when you're primarily rereading day 3; again, I'm biased, Yos was creeping me out slightly with his first couple of posts, heh. (Yay meta.)

One thing I don't like is that she says Yos2 should be looked at closer, but doesn't seem to e.g. look up why Des suspects him. I think she asks if she missed reasons someplace, but it doesn't seem like it should take more than a couple minutes to skim back and get the overview of it. I don't think Des posts between then and when Yos is killed, but the direction of her posting doesn't seem to be towards Yos2, she doesn't ask him any questions, for example.

This is a very good case. Either Elmo is bussing, or he took the time to dig up material on a likely townie. Either way, I'm vidging Elmo tomorrow unless you want to lynch him instead.

unvote, vote: forbiddanlight

[Raging Rabbit]

Either way, I'm vidging Elmo tomorrow unless you want to lynch him instead.

You vig whoever the town wants you to, so as to gain us a second lynch which gives off more information and is in every way better than an individual decision, or we know you're the SK and lynch you. Simple as that.

[Korts]

Elmo is scum. Does it get any simpler than that? That's not just my opinion.

[roflcopter]

i think elmo is a good vig target

why hasn't vollkan been lynched yet?

[Korts]

Because fl is a much shinier wagon.

[Elmo]

Elmo is scum. Does it get any simpler than that? That's not just my opinion.

What exactly is that meant to mean?

I don't think Elmo is a good vig target. I'd like to point out that Korts has kept on saying I'm scummy without ever making an actual case beyond that insane Yos2 thing. I don't expect reasons from rofl, but I'm pretty sure you don't have any beyond "I saw Elmo be ill when he was scum once and he was bored + ill here", which sucks.

[Korts]

I'll post a case soon; I don't have the energy nor the time right now.

[forbiddanlight]

What do you think of the other voters on that wagon? Why is she worse than them (e.g. roflcopter)?

I have more of an idea of rofl always being like that than I do of DGB. She's...odder, I guess the way she shifts. As for Korts, he's supposedly a vig. I like the SK theory though. His kills make more sense with that, and his breadcrumbs could be setting him up for that.

As for not paying enough attention to Yos2-des, I was distracted by vollkan and also haven't been engaged in this game. I'd say just lynch me since I didn't want to take it on so late in the game and didn't realize this much had happened, but are are a bit dangerously close to not being able to afford dead townies.

It's basically up to you all though, I'm kinda listless :S.

[Raging Rabbit]

Elmo is scum. Does it get any simpler than that? That's not just my opinion.

Wait 'till you hear everyone's opinion, then vig the majority choice. I think that's the obvious course of action if you're pro town.

Last post sorely tempts me to vote FL, but I'd rather do some rereading first.

[vollkan]

Eh. Statement of the obvious, Vollkan is pretty good if he's scum here. I would like to believe that I'd go metagame him by reading some previous games where he was scum, but I know deep down it'll never actually get done.

Most recent completed scum game is Mini 688. Good example of my scum play is Mini 500

I am curious to see his %-list, if that's appropriate.

I'll do one shortly.

Hey, Vollkan, when FL replaces in, she doesn't talk about Yos2 much. Why don't you push his lynch at that point, if you're trying to get him lynched at the time you're having a back-and-forth with her?

Pretty simple.

Yos posted in 831. I responded to him in 836, along with beginning my exchange with FL which continued for the next few posts by us. Yos didn't post again until 852, and that post was exclusively in response to Des. That was Yos's last post before dying.

I'd made my views on Yos clear, and there was nothing to add in the time that I was debating FL.

I find Vollkan's infatuation with "emotive phrases" or similar pretty odd. Yeah, you can sometimes manipulate people a bit by using loaded terms like OMGUS or whatever, but there needs to be some analysis of whether or not that's actually what they're doing. And he doesn't appear to go deeper than "she said it was OMGUS when it was not OMGUS and that is kind of scummy". The situations in which that kind of thing are useful are actually fairly specifc, in my view, so it'd make sense to look for them. I'm not (I hope) being critical, but I don't really get that.

I'll try and explain my stance more fully:

With most attacks on people, you have to (or, rather,

should

) 1) point to an action and 2) explain why it is scummy. Calling something "OMGUS", "WIFOM", "strawman", etc serves to skip the second stage. After all, there is a consensus that OMGUS, WIFOM and strawmanning are scummy.

Rather than looking at DGB's and evaluating whether or not they were actually scummy, FL chose to attack the merest semblance of OMGUS and, rather than explaining how it was OMGUS, contented herself with the simple label "OMGUS".

And, of course, then FL has the gall to accuse me of playing semantics. Let's suppose for just a moment that "OMGUS" has the very wide meaning that FL is trying to give it. The way FL's argument broadens the term "OMGUS" turns it into something which is a complete null-tell

There aren't a lot of places where Sens is mentioned; rofl's "obvscum" stance and switch away is really the only interesting thing apart from Yos' lurker vote. I don't think you can safely read anything into the latter. FL's set of long posts is the only real thing from the role - they seem fairly.. unfocussed, for want of a better word, pretty much like you'd expect someone trying to get a grip on the game anew. I find it odd that she narrows in on DGB's behaviour towards BM, it seems fairly arbitrary.. the lack of analysis of Des - Yos is kinda worrying. It just feels unnatural to go concentrate on the BM wagon instead of looking at that, it seems a more "immediate" issue than the day 2 lynch, especially when you're primarily rereading day 3; again, I'm biased, Yos was creeping me out slightly with his first couple of posts, heh. (Yay meta.)

If he had good reasons for attacking DGB's BM stance, this would almost be understandable. But he doesn't.

Wait 'till you hear everyone's opinion, then vig the majority choice. I think that's the obvious course of action if you're pro town.

Agreed. Letting Korts individually decide who he should kill is as absurd as letting Korts individually decide who we should lynch.

[Elmo]

This is making me do a double take a couple of times a post, so, FL is a she

Loosely, getting people lynched is persuading other people, and generally (imo) the best way to do that is to talk directly to potential voters. I would have thought that you would have taken that opportunity, conversing with FL, to try and get her vote on Yos2 instead of talking about BM. I don't currently take issue with you case on Yos, but it seems odd to me that you talked about something essentially tangental. If I were you, I think Yos2 would have been uppermost in my mind, and I would definitely have tried to persuade her to vote Yos, if you see what I mean. Do you follow roughly my train of thought? Basically, you don't seem to have actively sought a wagon on him, and you can contrast that with what Des did by e.g. asking people to comment on his case, and this is especially noticeable in the subject you chose to talk about with FL. I'm curious why you didn't do that.

Volk, assuming FL is scum, what's her motive for saying essentially "DGB OMGUSsed"? If there is a consensus on what OMGUS means, it seems silly to misrepresent what she was doing in an attempt to make a case on her. Offhand, I'd agree that her stance is probably incorrect, but I don't see the leap between "bad logic" and "scum". Yes, it's

harder

to present good logic as scum, but I really don't think bad logic alone is indicative of much. And I don't currently draw much more than that from what you referenced.

I'm kind of wary of the argument between you and FL, since it looks not unlike a typical town-town-OMGUS situation. I went over it yesterday; I don't think either of you has convinced me, really.

Korts, just anything resembling a summary would be nice. The degree of near-certainty implied by what you've said should mean that it's not so difficult to sum up, right? Or were you just being opportunistic?

I wish I had more to work with from FL (yes, I know, irony) because her last post seemed quite townish, again. In fact, everyone seems at least a little townish except Korts and Vollkan, and the only reads I'd consider too weak to rely on are DGB, FL and (kinda) Tajo. I'm just not sure what the margin of error in a DGB read is supposed to be (and I mean this in a good way). I do think Tajo is town, but that's not really based in anything 'solid', he had a good post on day 1 but has kinda chipped in here and there since. I dunno I'd trust that read in LyLo.

If I'm correct, the next day will have a deadline of 12 days, so we might do well to think ahead, somewhat. What pairings do people feel are most likely? I can't think of a particularly plausible group aside from {Yos2, FL, Vollkan}.

[Elmo]

Oh, yeah, someone: from memory, the reason Yos jumps on Sens in the first place is that someone else brings up the fact he's lurking. Yos doesn't seek out a lurker, he joins on an easy wagon that is already formed. So that's why; no double standard there, that I can see.

rofl, have you finished going through the phase where you struggle to remember why I was supposed to be scummy, yet?

[roflcopter]

nope, can't put my finger on it right now, but elmo is definitely scum, and this vollkan wagon seems to have stopped short of the lynch i was hoping for

unvote, vote: elmo

[Elmo]

I would obviously vote for him over being lynched. That would make four. You could easily make him the deadline lynch by keeping your vote on him, I think. Why the switch?