Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Korts]

Huh...What was the time pressure?

exams and general time crunch.

It is WIFOM (and scum-Korts really has just as much selfish motivation to make kills which don't obviously benefit him as he does to make kills which do. The very fact you are making this argument now puts this into action).

And, also, what about you as group

True, simply making the point that I wouldn't have had motivation gives me motivation. I can't argue with that. But have you really thought out how I could feasibly be part of a scumgroup? If I'm of the same group as Yos, why would I basically out myself after the group has already lost Yos himself? If I'm of another scumgroup, and that group did, indeed, kill Yos, that makes more sense, but not by a lot.

[populartajo]

Well, if Korts is indeed a vig then it would be helpful if he stoped trusting his gut since we can use him as a second lynch, right?
What are the odds of two mafia groups, taking in count the role Yos had?
This FL-Vollkan thing smells bad, like the Yos-Vollkan thing did.
I promisse Ill reread this soon and come back with at least one scum. Apparently, Korts' decisions dont make much sense so Id like that he, plz, points out his breadcrumbs and precise quotes of the players he killed that finally decided their respective fates.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'm pretty sure Korts is anti town, whether part of a second mafia (far less likely) or SK makes little difference. Both second kills make no sense whatsoever from a town point of view, both because of timing and choice of target, and have very weak rational behind them. Even the Yos kill I'm not sure makes sense as a choice from Korts-vig point of view. My two biggest issues are the timing of the kills, which is both early in the day which means they were less informed decisions and didn't maximize their potential of helping the town (for example - a reasonable compulsive dayvig would vig a main lynch candidate every day, to essentialy make his kills more informative and effectively give the town two lynches a day), and more importantly both targets were going to provide the town valuable info that would make it easier for a vig to determine their alignment, so there's no reason for him to ever ever kill them befoer they got to. Also, in addition to Guardain's kill making no sense because CKD was a better choice according to his case, there's the matter of his so called suspicion of Kison, which he expressed as an unexplained gut read in one single post early day two before immediately submitting the kill, then going "whoops, guess I was wrong" - which is totally and utterly contrived looking, that unexlained "bad feeling" post seems meant for him to claim prior suspicion of Kison, thus making his vig claim more believable.

Also, there's the matter of the two kills that didn't go through. If Korts really is a vig that eliminates the possibility of a kill targeting the kill immune SK, which leaves us with a RB targetting the scum who made the kill - who should claim right now obviously, and since no one has yet I'm assuming for the moment doesn't exist - and a doc. So in order for Korts to be an SK the doc would've had to outguess the mafia two days in a row, and submit his target before them to top that off. I don't think that's very likely, and combined with the above I'd say I'm like 90% sure he's the SK.

Now, what I'm starting to wonder is whether in this current situation we may be better off keeping him alive anyways. I mean, after his claim we can force Korts to kill according to a second vote in any future days, effectively gaining us a second lynch. If he doesn't, we immediately lynch him and he (most likely) loses any chance he had of winning the game. Thus we improve the townkill:scumkill ratio dramatically to our side, and give ourselves a much better chance to finish off the scum quickly. Then when we assume there's no scum left, if we haven't won yet, we lynch Korts. This also takes care of the (quite slim imo) possibility he's telling the truth. Discuss.

[roflcopter]

i like the leave korts alive til it seems like we've run out of scum to kill plan. i for one don't think his kills are that preposterous from his perspective. i would have considered the same kills in his position, except that i wouldn't have killed yos, so i guess you guys should be happy he's the one with his finger on the trigger and not me.

[DrippingGoofball]

Locking in RR as town for remainder of game.

[roflcopter]

Locking in RR as town for remainder of game.

for reals

[Korts]

@pop:

My crumbs:

Before the Guardian-kill, I made several points against Guardian. After the Guardian-kill, I posted this:

I would like people speculate as to why Guardian was killed. No, really.

Scumkill and vigkill are both likely possibilities. Scumkill because Guardian was basically uncovering a plan that could ensure a quicklynch, and vigkill because the same, which was a clear attempt to stop any more votes on CKD, implied a heavy connection between Guardian and CKD. Why do you think this question will help in any way?

Before the Kison kill:

I have this vague feeling Kison is scum. I dunno why, but I'll definitely look into this gut read properly when I have normal access (I'm currently through a proxy site right now, my brother blocked MS and the searchword "proxy" because apparently I'm spending too much time on MS...)

After the Kison kill:

Ok so I was wrong.

Also, I could've sworn I said how the Kison-kill could easily have been a vidgekill; can't seem to find it.

Before the Yos-kill:

Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching.

As much as I gathered, Yos starts out slightly reaching, but has a valid point in you apparently dropping much of the suspicion you had on CKD. He seems to be tunneling pretty much exclusively on you, though, and apart from an exchange with vollkan on the same topic, and the push on the obvious BM lynch, he hasn't really commented on anything else.

I agree that forb deserves suspicion. The Yosarian-suspicion I agree with to a lesser extent.

After the Yos-kill, the claim.

The deciding posts, approximately:

From Guardian:

ps: people unvote ckd, otherwise it seems that the scum could kill someone and change it from 8 to lynch to 7 to lynch. we don't want ckd lynched unless we want ckd lynched and have him hammered; if he is town and is at 7 votes, the scum can kill someone and get an instant lynch on ckd.

And this:

if ckd is town, lynch -1 basically means lynch, because mafia can kill someone, then there are 13 people alive, then it is 7 to lynch when it is now 8 to lynch.

so, realize that if you vote CKD now, and put him at lynch -1, you are effectively hammering him.

if you all are comfortable with that... then I'll find you suspicious for it.

CKD is under such suspicion and likely lynch that I would like to say some things in his defense, and I have a hell of a lot more I want to say today before ckd gets hammered. I prefer short days, but I prefer that we end days when we choose to, not because we didn't realize scum could kill someone and reduce the requirements to lynch.

From Kison, a general gut feel.

From Yos, basing a whole case on des on a reaching point.

RR, you're excluding the possibility that scum failed to send in a kill Day 2; BM was lynched pretty suddenly.

Also, I can live with it if you think I'm an SK and you want to keep me for vidging purposes.

[roflcopter]

RR, you're excluding the possibility that scum failed to send in a kill Day 2; BM was lynched pretty suddenly.

thats a fair point. des and i basically quickhammered him between us.

[Raging Rabbit]

All these "crumbs" only go to prove you planned claiming vig ahead, which makes perfect sense as an SK - in fact, some like the Kison post look more geared towards a future fakeclaim than an actual reflection of what a pro town player is thinking.

thats a fair point. des and i basically quickhammered him between us.

True. I thought the scumkill is done at random if it isn't submitted until deadline, like the vig and SK kills, but it turns out it doens't. Still, anti town roles have a strong incentive to kill quickly while pro town roles are the other way around.

Unvote

for now while we contemplate whether to keep you alive. I need to take a long look at some other players, FL in particurlar is making me uncomfortable, and will hopefully do so later this week if I'll find the time.

[Elmo]

Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching. Of the three main participants of that line of discussion (Yos, des, vollkan), vollkan seems to be the one who chimes in for personal motives.

This is not putting Yos as #2. Based on this, I would have guessed you would have vigged Vollkan if someone told me you were a vig for sure. Also.. how imaginative does one need to be to come up with the idea of killing off the most popular lynch roughly halfway through the day?

If the mafia has a mafia doc, why wasn't Yos protected? Did they just underestimate how bad he looked? He seems far and away most likely to be vigged apart from a) Korts and b) townies, and you'd obviously want to keep the GF alive. Maybe I'm biased.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm going to do a re-read now that we know Yos's alignment.

[populartajo]

RR, welcome to the townies club.
After that posts, Korts is screaming either SK or second mafia group, if he indeed killed Yos.
Yos and Kison, I can buy discarding the problems with vig timing. The Guardian kill is the one that makes me wonder its protown motives, specially as Guardian was screaming that a kill would eventually generate a lynch.
And why did you claim, did anyone ask?
But if youre telling the truth, we'll know eventually. I say we keep him alive, use his kill as a second lynch and shotgun some mafias in the way.
So des, rolf, RR and apparently DGB are probtownies, leaving an interesting amount of players to look right now.
Vollkan, Sensfan (FL) and Elmo.
Thoughts of these players?

[Korts]

If the mafia has a mafia doc, why wasn't Yos protected? Did they just underestimate how bad he looked? He seems far and away most likely to be vigged apart from a) Korts and b) townies, and you'd obviously want to keep the GF alive. Maybe I'm biased.

Why the hell would you even bring this up? This comment serves no real purpose.

[Korts]

And why did you claim, did anyone ask?

So I shouldn't have claimed, being at L-2 and with more than two people off wagon having expressed willingness to vote me? It's not in my win condition to get lynched.

Elmo seems scummy enough in his own right, but there's also a definite connection between him and Yos. DGB seems like a good scumpartner to Yos, too.

vote: Elmo

[Elmo]

If the mafia have a doc, then you're probably actually a liability even as a vig, especially if we're going to direct you, because you can only kill townies. By deduction, whether or not the mafia have a doc is important in whether or not to lynch you.

How am I scummy?

yos was way too concerned about why people were wagoning you day one and made it his business to make sure your wagon didn't outcompete ckd's.

{...}

I can see your point of view. He was a bit too obvious, though. Buddying up, incriminating me, red herring for the town, I don't have much else I can reply with.

So right after this, you are pushing a connection between me and Yos on the basis that he went out of his way to mention he wouldn't vote for me, when he had no good reason to vote for me in the first place? If you're town, does it not occur to you

maybe he was doing it again

?

Why is DGB a good partner for Yos?

[Elmo]

Also, if you are a compulsive vig, I'd be surprised if they didn't have some way of stopping the kills. That probably means (I think) doc or RB. And figuring out which they have is probably useful. The fact a mafia doc cannot kill might be abusable in some way.

Actually, having a compulsive vig around vs. something like mafia doc + goon is probably less bad than I thought provided we lynch one of them. Either we lynch the goon and the mafia lose their kill, or the doc and the goon is viggable again. There's also the chance of vigging the doc, which is 50-50 at random.

But yeah, that's roughly why I'm thinking about that.

[DrippingGoofball]

Korts, any special reason you're keeping vollkan alive?

[Adel]

I have a nagging suspicion that there is a mistake in this votecount, but I can't identify it.

fixed

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votecount as of post 941

_{with 9 alive, 5 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

¬vollkan:

3

:DrippingGoofball, roflcopter, forbiddanlight
Korts:

1

:destructor
forbiddanlight:

1

:vollkan
Elmo:

1

:Korts


No Lynch:

none

not voting:

3

:Elmo, populartajo, Raging Rabbit

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Day 3's deadline is December 26th at 12:28 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[populartajo]

Adel, I think RR isnt voting anymore.
I like Elmo's last post.

Unvote Vote : Vollkan.

I think there is a big chance that either he or FL, if not both, are scum.
Claim, plz.

[populartajo]

L-1, BTW.

[populartajo]

Damn, sorry for the triple post.
If Vollkan isnt scum and if scum hasnt killed yet then I can autolynch vollkan if they decide to kill right now.

Unvote.

But I think he should claim, anyways.
Adel, also I think the number of nonvoters is off.

[Adel]

that would be it. thank you.

[roflcopter]

k, vollkan claim time

[destructor]

I'm not sure that vollkan is scum. My biggest issue with him was how he seemed to miss that Yos' ckd vote kept ckd at L-1. I don't think there is much more of a case on him or if that's enough on its own.

I'd rather lynch FL today. Vollkan's definitely been coming out on top in their exchange mostly because he's making complete sense while FL seems to be more interested in portraying vollkan's every move as that of ovbscum.

About Korts, if he's an SK, I don't think it's a good idea to keep him alive. We could end up in a prisoners dilemma before we knew it. I do think the number of kills we've seen increase the chances of him being an SK over doc protections/roleblocks as well. If we're going to lynch him, it should be sooner rather than later.

[destructor]

I do think the number of kills we've seen increase the chances of him being an SK over doc protections/roleblocks as well.

That said, I'm not sure how likely a kill Korts was for the Mafia in the first place.