Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

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We should let the SK kill some Mafia for us first.

1. roflcopter
2. Yosarian2
3. Raging Rabbit
4. Kison

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

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Vote: Raging Rabbit

I speculate that this setup has no more than 1 Mafia Doctor and at least 1 Mafia Godfather. In the absence of a Mafia Doc, there will almost certainly be at least 1 Mafia Roleblocker. With 14 players I think it's likely we have a Mafia of 3.

i'm on that shortlist why?

more interestingly, yosarian is on that list why?

You are the four I've never played with before.

Why is it more interesting that Yos was on the list?

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nice Des has his cool avatar back

Destructor is 100% town.

These are both entirely true.

cause yos hadn't even posted yet.

Ok, I can believe that.

Mod:

You've listed Elmo and I as voting for RR separately. Sens' vote on BM as well.

not particularly

Wut

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Yeah, I know, but why won't you reply? It's a valid question, don't you think?

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Korts, do you think asking someone who they this is town is a scumtell?

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Is anything interesting you besides rofl's question?

How about ckd unvoting you?

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At this moment, I don't see anything in particular that interests me in a scumhunting sense.

CKD's was a random vote, and he found a slightly better place for it. I don't see anything with it. Why bring that up in particular?

What about you? Anything of interest to you?

If ckd is scum, is his vote still random?
He didn't say why he voted for rofl either, so why say that was a better place for his vote?
I can understand asking rofl that question the first time. I don't see as much merit in persisting for an answer like you have, though. I'm not convinced that your play so far is pro-town, so I wonder about ckd leaving your wagon.

unvote, vote: BM

For two consecutive posts without a vote. Shame on you.

Good catch, but I'm already voting for his buddy, Kison.

Damn. Well, at least you'll never find out who my other buddy is!

*cough*Sensfan*cough*

BM

What's with the WIFOM?

FOS: Battle Mage

This is the first FOS I've pointed in about 12 months. Consider it seriously hardcore.

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At this moment, I don't see anything in particular that interests me in a scumhunting sense.

CKD's was a random vote, and he found a slightly better place for it. I don't see anything with it. Why bring that up in particular?

What about you? Anything of interest to you?

EBWOP: this was Korts, not ckd.

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ckd, before rofl called me town, why'd you vote him?

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Now I'm confused.

Because I caught all three scum, and now there's a fourth.

CKD...

3 scum + SK?

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Kison, you openly called it a joke. Maybe you are distancing, but it makes sense to me that you were playing along with DGB, so I'm not reading into it any more than is warranted. BM's tone might have been jokey as well, but I don't see what the point of implicating Sens was.

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Des, gut (page 4)..couple posts caught my attention...but now this is just too much

I'm rereading his posts on page 4. Why'd they make you think he was a better vote than Korts?

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and Des, Korts was a random vote...this one, not so much...seems like a silly question.

Well, if Korts is scum, he could call your vote random with more confidence.

Des question for you...what do you think the difference is between "acting" protown and "being" protown? Do you understand whay he is saying?...What do you think you have done that deems you "being" protown versus just "acting" so? These are his terms not mine....curious if you have a clue...

Acting and being are kind of mutually exclusive. So far as I can tell, we can't say what someone "is" without extra role-based info, but we can comment on how they act.

I don't think I should try to explain what rofl was saying. I'm not even sure myself.


I was hoping RR would post before I unvoted him, but I have to agree that ckd's attack on rofl looks like noise to me.

Unvote
Vote: curiouskarmadog

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Also, it's self-bus'ing. I mean, he can only bus himself. He's doing it to get town cred in case he goes down in flames.

I'd strongly encourage any SK/s to adopt this excellent strategy.

Whether this is what's happening here or not, if you swap bussing with distancing, what DGB says has merit. A Mafiate can die and still win. SKs need to stay alive, so implying that you're willing to be lynched is alluding to not having survival in your win condition.


I think rofl's "clearing" of me is being blown out of proportion. I said I'm not sure of what rofl meant, but I have an idea of what rofl's train of thought was. I'm not saying more than that because it's not my place to speak for him.

and Des, you are voting me why?..becauase you think it is noise?

I think it's an unreasonably reachy argument. There is no reason arguments and cases have to be weak just because it's early in the game. What you're doing isn't even prodding and probing.

I stated several times it wasnt a case...I am not trying to parade it as anything else

I don't buy this. It's like you're saying you're only testing the waters. Here are some quotes:

first major scum move this game..

vote in the right place.

because I dont think you are "clearing" people right now. you are trying to buddy up with people right now.

he knows I caught him in a load a bullshit and he trying to avoid admitting it.

These all sound like you're definitely accusing rofl of being scum, more than just sniffing around.

it looks like someone trying to LOOK like they are doing something without really doing anything.

What do you make of Korts' contributions before page 5?

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Korts, If ckd is scum he's going to be conscious of whether or not he's voting for someone who's on his team. He unvoted you and moved to rofl without giving much more reason than his first vote.

ckd saying ""vote is boring... and I think lacking" only tells me that he didn't think he should vote for

you

anymore. You aren't curious about what reason he had to vote rofl in the first place? You've said his vote is OMGUS, but he voted rofl before they started their exchange. ckd can't justify his vote retrospectively and you're ignoring this.

I like my questions answered. Avoidance of them, however minor or pointless they seem to be, is a scumtell and is done for a reason, therefore the more they're avoided, the more I want them answered.

He said he'd answer them after vollkan replied. Generally speaking, what was wrong with that? Did you think he wouldn't?

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DGB said rofl and I are 100% town, which seems a bigger statement than rofl ever made. I'm wondering why ckd and Kison are making rofl the bigger deal here and in fact saying nothing about DGB at all.

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quadruple post

Vollkan, do you have a problem with rofl's gut read of me?

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I don't see much sense in what Sens is saying.

This whole discussion is pretty lame, though. I don't even know if 'gut' means the same thing to everyone. I think of gut as the impression I get when I pick up on recurring nuances over a number of posts that I can't always point at immediately. Why shouldn't this get me leaning town, as opposed to scum, on someone?

The page number thing is also a fallacy. The post count and content of the player(s) in question are more meaningful.

Basically, we need to stop arguing about vague shit using vague terms.


The real issue I see people taking with rofl is that the page number on which he'd made a call on me being town was too low, or something. His comment would only be particularly questionable if I had a low post count or little content. If someone had said they had a town gut read on me on page 12 while I had the same number of posts, would this still be an issue?

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BM, I know you said it jokingly. I'm repeating myself here. You got the FOS for implicating Sens. Kison played along with DBG based on interaction that already existed. You specifically bought SensFan into it for no reason I can understand. What was the point of that?


For the record, my vote on ckd has more to do with Korts than it does rofl. One of Korts and ckd is scum, if not both. I think that ckd was threatened by rofl's vote and his following case against him seemed almost knee-jerk. I asked him to explain his gut read because his case seemed to come out of nowhere, like he was just running with it, hoping it'd become believable at some point. This impression was reinforced when he later said he didn't have a case and wasn't trying to "parade it as anything else", which I don't think is true - he was definitely accusing rofl of being scum.

I already said I had issues with ckd unvoting Korts (Post 108). I wasn't convinced that ckd had a good enough reason to say his vote on Korts was "lacking". What Guardian says here applies to Korts, imo.

Posting a lot of nothing can make you look like you are scum hunting, being active, thinking about the game, etc. when you aren't.

The Korts-ckd connection became more evident when Korts talked about ckd's motives with so much confidence (Post 161). He describes ckd's case on rofl as OMGUS, ignoring the fact that ckd voted rofl before this could have been a factor. Why isn't Korts questioning the legitimacy of ckd's reasoning prior to his exchange with rofl? I think it's because he's scum trying to slow his buddy's wagon down, or possibly scum who knows ckd is town.

So, ckd needs to tell us what he thought of Korts' play compared to rofl's before he switched his vote.

I disagree; I'm not defending CKD, but rather one of his arguments. Why? Because I think the argument in question is valid.

Are you concerned about ckd at all? You said you didn't agree with much else he said. What do you think of Korts?

About the rofl drama, I think he can nip it at the bud (which might be blooming a little) by collecting a few quotes of mine that gave him a town read of me. That shouldn't be hard.
BM claims to have a reason to believe ckd is town, so he should explain that as well.

Elmo, Yos and vollkan need to post more.
I have a mildly town read of RR.
I think all 4 of you should place a non-random in your next post.

Zaz, which parts of your first post were serious?

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I think the polarised ckd-rofl thing is a distraction. A case on either rofl or ckd that revolves around each other is based on isolated scummy play. This is going to be less effective and informative than making cases based on interaction with at least one other suspicious player. I say this player is Korts.

I also note that a number of players have backed ckd up but only DGB and I have swayed on the side of rofl. So, ckd, Kison and anyone else who thinks rofl is scum - who's distancing from him?

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How suspicious do you think it was in the context of this game and the rest of his play?

Does my case on Korts interest you? What about his connection to ckd?

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EBWOP:
"How suspicious do you think [rofl's refusal to answer] was in the context of this game and the rest of his play?"

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I'm sorry, I haven't been keeping up since my last post. Looking at the last vote count I see that Korts is catching up to ckd. I'm not sure which of Korts/ckd I actually find most suspicious but I'd be pretty happy with either of their lynches (maybe leaning Korts, actually) from where I left off. more later tonight.

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Thoughts as I catch up...

Guardian, you didn't answer this:

Does my case on Korts interest you? What about his connection to ckd?

des, are you accusing me of not scumhunting?

Yep.

The Korts-ckd connection became more evident when Korts talked about ckd's motives with so much confidence

Korts, If ckd is scum he's going to be conscious of whether or not he's voting for someone who's on his team. He unvoted you and moved to rofl without giving much more reason than his first vote.

I still don't see how that's particularly scummy, placing multiple random votes.

Is this me talking about motives "with so much confidence"? Cos it was you that implied that CKD's second vote was pretty much another vote without real reason (i.e. a second random vote). I don't know why CKD decided his vote on me was lacking. The fact that I didn't do much constructive posting up 'til then does make his unvote raise my eyebrow, looking at it now, but I fail to see that as an associative tell (I would say that, though, wouldn't I).

You're calling his second vote (for rofl) random now, but you didn't at the time. I was calling into question the fact that you seemed to think the best of his votes. You didn't consider that ckd could be scum.

Why isn't Korts questioning the legitimacy of ckd's reasoning prior to his exchange with rofl?

Because "gut" is an acceptable though not very helpful reason for an early game state, while BS is always invalid.

I'm not interested in beating a dead horse, but you didn't make a note of this earlier. Your comments about ckd seemed to default to ckd-town. I think that's suspicious.

BM, I know you said it jokingly. I'm repeating myself here. You got the FOS for implicating Sens. Kison played along with DBG based on interaction that already existed. You specifically bought SensFan into it for no reason I can understand. What was the point of that?

He was a name i could remember was in the game, that i hadnt mentioned yet? I dont know. It's called the RANDOM voting stage for a reason.

You've said your vote-hopping has a pro-town function (I think it's inefficient and limited, but that's probably not worth discussing anymore). What was the pro-town function of WIFOM'ing us?

@Kison-ive already explained my stance on CKD at least twice.

@Des- same applies to you. It'd be nice if you read some of my posts, before asking me questions that i've already answered.

You definitely didn't. You on ckd:

I'm pretty sure you're town at this point.

But i have a town read on him based on a meta i can't reference, so it isn't of great value to the game at this point.

This is actually a very good point. If DGB wasnt a professional bser, and CKD strongly protown, i might be tempted to follow you.

A strong town read based on a meta that you can't reference is BS. And you're comfortable to say this by Post 28?

How much of what you post do you actually mean? A lot of your posts are just coming across as completely counter-productive. Sure, they might make sense to

you

and I'd love to understand, but unless you're going to share the fruits of your play with us in a way we can all understand, don't bother since that's definitively anti-town. This is a team game and posts like this:

And ftr, my votes do mean whatever i want them to, TO ME. Why would i care what significance you place upon my votes?

are poor examples of teamwork.

Someone asked me what I think of the furious karma dog. As I said, I agree with his point about clearing Destructor so early without being able to point out why, but disagree with most everything else he used as a basis for switching his vote. However, whether or not his switch of a vote indicates a link between him and Korts, I do not know. I'm going to go back and look over the whole ordeal right now and will post back shortly.

What do you think now?

scum list:
ckd ✔
guardian

X

elmo

X

bm?

X

kison? ✔
korts? ✔
sensfan? ✔

Why'd you tick Kison?


BM, your vote for rofl (again) in Post 300 wasn't great. rofl already expressed suspicion of you, so it makes sense that he'd want Elmo to explain why he read you as town. On the other hand, most players who questioned rofl's reasons for finding me or DGB town hadn't provided much (or any) reason to think we were scum, anyway. It's kind of like speculating that scum didn't send a kill in when a night passes without a kill.


I'm not sure what to think of Guardian's fixation on DGB. I can appreciate expecting clarity and transparency from a player but I'm beginning to suspect that Guardian could be using his gripe with DGB as an excuse for not involving himself with other issues in the game. I might need to reread to see how true this has been.


Korts is more active now, but I'm still not convinced that he's really trying to catch scum. I'm finding a lot of his argument's reachy. I can point to them later. I want to finish catching up first. I also don't believe DGB is as obviously town as he's saying, which is also weird.

SensFan

, do you think I'm scum?


I'm caught up. This post was kind of boring.

Things I'm thinking:
I find ckd and Korts scummy. I'd be a little shattered if I was wrong about

both

of them. I definitely want at least one of them dead by day 2.
Sens hasn't been hunting scum. This is suspicious.
My impression is that Yos has contributed more theory discussion than game discussion, which is mildly unsettling.
On that note, I reckon the theory discussions are taking up space. I figure we all agree that gut isn't anything to hammer someone on alone. Requests for quantification of gut reads or any other comment like vague assertions are completely reasonable.
I'm trying to think about who the scum are if both of ckd and Korts are town, but no one's coming up obviously. That said there are a number of players who haven't posted very much including RR, Zaz, Sens and, until recently, Elmo. I have a feeling at least one of the scum has been relatively inactive so far.
I wonder what scum are day talking about...


And.. I still need ckd to reply to posts 143 and 214.

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Hmm.

Unvote
Vote: Korts

ckd, I still want to see you responding to the posts I mentioned.

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Vollkan and Yos, if not ckd, who would you be voting for? Why?

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Des unvoted....now why would he do that?

I could have left you at L-1. I don't see what's wrong with me changing to my other suspect. Also, not including your self-vote, you and Korts are equal in the vote count.

Vollkan and Yos, if not ckd, who would you be voting for? Why?

Rofl. Reason: Ignoring my questions about his declaration of suspicion on SensFan.

Your vote was on ckd for gut. I'm finding it hard to believe that this is the next most suspicious thing you've seen in all 15 pages of this game. What are you thinking about Korts? SensFan? Yos? Elmo?

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Your vote was on ckd for gut

No it wasn't. I've already explicitly said that I take gut as a null-tell for CKD. I jokingly voted CKD over the gut thing, but the point I was addressing seriously was his mimicry of

Yes Minister

through the use of an irregular verb: "I scumhunt early game-style", "You reach and attempt to appear scumhunting"

Whoops, I missed that. Sorry.

More to the point, I still find it inconsistent that you're saying one thing of all of rofl's play makes him second most worthy of your vote. By the standards you've explained to us, isn't Yos' gut vote on ckd worse? rofl made a perceptibly casual mention of Sens as a suspect but Yos

voted

for a player without an explanation that went further than gut, saying he was happy to leave him at L-1. Why aren't you asking Yos to quantify his read of ckd as you're asking rofl to do of Sens?

And are either of these scummier than Korts? Where do they rate on your scale?

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I didn't like the ckd wagon being at L-1. I see no merit in having a wagon that strong where discussion has been relatively limited and some players have contributed little. I already explained that I had moved my vote to my second suspect, levelling the two wagons. I could easily switch back to ckd if I wanted to, making him the deadline lynch, just as much as anyone could change which wagon is leading with a single vote. (Note that since DGB unvoted ckd, Korts has become the deadline lynch).

I asked you and vollkan who else you'd vote for because... I didn't know who else you suspected. Can you answer now?

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Korts, L-1 and L-2 aren't anywhere near the same thing. I'll point to those reachy arguments soon.

Yos made no pretences about having anything other than gut. As I said, I don't like Yos's vote, but there is a difference between casting a vote and stating it is based on gut (bad enough, imo) and casting a vote which is apparently based on something non-gut but then seemingly avoiding actually explaining what that 'something' is and why it is actually scummier.

But Yos left ckd at

L-1

! rofl didn't even vote for Sens! How is rofl's action more significant than Yos'?

It is reaching…but NOT THAT reachy. It was early in the game…I upgraded my random vote (korts) to rofl who I felt might be making some scummy posts…and while you deem this as not prodding or probing, look at the reaction to come out of it. Now, I am not saying I did this for a reaction, but I didn’t do it to be safe either. I would not have advocated lynching rofl at the moment based on that, but it was enough for me to change my vote.

I should clarify. By saying it wasn't prodding or probing, I meant that you were actually accusing rofl of being scum. I should have said that it was

more than

prodding and probing. The quotes I posted made this evident. I didn't like the fact that you tried to downplay how serious you were about it all ("I am not trying to parade it as anything else").

Nothing..couple jokes..random votes…he wasn’t doing much of anything..but that was what most of goes on Day 1 in the first pages of a game…it was different in rofl play…I assume you are asking me about Korts at this point because I had my random vote on him…but what did anybody do in the first 5 pages of the game…other than BM spamming the thread..nothing really got this game going until my attack of rofl.

to me, just seems like someone who is trying to look like they are scum hunting...again this is just a couple pages into the game.

My question is, really, what made rofl's scum-hunting seem forced but Korts' seem genuine? For example, do you think Korts' suggestion that rofl was trying to buddy up to Yos wasn't tenuous and forced?

Given that it's been pointed out that BM has declared that you're town past the random stage, can you answer rofl's questions here again?

ckd, kison: how does bm's declaration that ckd is protown differ from my own about des, and why has it gone ignored by you two up to this point?

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I didn't like the ckd wagon being at L-1. I see no merit in having a wagon that strong where discussion has been relatively limited and some players have contributed little.

Yeah, but...it was only at L -1 because he put it there. That dosn't seem like any kind of reason to unvote him...

You weren't concerned about the day ending earlier than was necessary?

Eh...other then ckd and Guardian, no one really stood out to me as especally scummy to me when I read through the thread. If there's a decent case against someone else, I'd like to hear it.

But you wouldn't like to make one yourself?

I cover some of my reasons for suspecting Korts in Post 214. It's that plus other impressions I get that make me think he's not really trying to catch scum. The "rofl's buddying up to Yos" comment is one of them. "Guardian is on the fence" is another. I'll make a list later.

Tajo, hi again.

In the meanwhile, anyone would like to explain me the game in few words and make a brief summary of everything going on here, like why Korts has 4 votes and such?

It'd be better if you did that all for yourself.
Also, if we make it to end-game, please don't get all tunnel-visioned on me again. :p

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I thought my pointing out that your vote was based on gut made this implicit. Vollkan just asked you if that justified it too.

Um, I just said no one else really stood out to me as scummy just yet, which kind of means that no, I'm not going to make a case against someone else. What, you expect me to catch the whole mafia in the first 4 real-life days of the game?

There's no need for hyperbole. If you didn't see anyone else as obviously scum in your first read, I'd expect you to do some rereading and look for new leads.

So.. why is ckd most likely to be scum?

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Yos seems to go the distance to misrepresent my play.

Vollkan covered the point on your gut, so far as it's definition goes. I can concede, though, that my curiosity about your actual reasons may not have been as evident as I thought.

I don't understand how you could describe my vote change and interaction with ckd in the way you have, even after asking me for clarification and

saying you understood

. Saying I "dropped suspicion of ckd completely" is obviously misrepresentative given that my change of vote was accompanied by messages like, "ckd, I still want you to answer my questions." I've even said I could switch back to ckd if I wanted to. Where in that do you see me completely dropping my suspicion of him?

I don't even know why you'd

begin

to say I'm defending ckd or how my questioning you and Vollkan can be construed as attacks.

I'm seriously wondering if you actually believe this cause to suspect me.

What you did instead (Drop your suspicion on him completly, move your vote to a different wagon, and begin to strongly defend him and attack everyone else on his wagon) is quite confusing if you really are a townie who previously thought he was suspicious looking, unless A. you thought there was new evidence pointing to him being town, or B. you never actually wanted to lynch him in the first place, you just wanted it to look like you did.

Because what you say I did isn't even true and even if I thought he was suspicious, and

still

think he is suspicious, I see nothing unusual, unexpected or suspicious, to the degree you're asserting here, about exploring in other avenues - there are more players in this game than ckd and Korts. A. doesn't even make sense anyway since I never indicated that I thought ckd was town. Even if it did, listing only one other possible explanation is overly simplistic and so fallacious.

Um, I just said no one else really stood out to me as scummy just yet, which kind of means that no, I'm not going to make a case against someone else. What, you expect me to catch the whole mafia in the first 4 real-life days of the game?

There's no need for hyperbole. If you didn't see anyone else as obviously scum in your first read, I'd expect you to do some rereading and look for new leads.

Who's using hyperbole? If one person looks significantly more scummy to me then anyone else, I'm not likely to go around making detailed cases on people I find less scummy. I'm certanly willing to listen to them though, and will keep an open mind.

You were using hyperbole:

What, you expect me to catch the whole mafia in the first 4 real-life days of the game?

Since when did pointing out a suspect necessitate catching an entire scum-team and making detailed cases? This was never what I asked you to do, so stop trying to make me sound unreasonable. And this is all aside from the point that, so far as I could tell, you were basically asking other people to hunt scum for you.

To sum it up, your entire case on me seems to be hinged on ckd being scum. If this turns out to be true, then maybe try bringing it up again. Until then, I'm only curious about how far you're willing to stretch this theory. Its basis is already a reach.

So.. why is ckd most likely to be scum?

Any reason you're only asking me this now?

I didn't see your vote as being particularly significant until I started questioning vollkan about rofl being his second suspect. It was the first and only vote you've placed and you made it for non-specific reasons. It became more meaningful to me in the time around the posts where it was discussed. Look back at those posts - I referred to your vote in vollkan's terms, since it was his take on it I was asking about.

I'm not sure what to make of vollkan's semi-defence of me or his delayed reaction to Yos' vote. It's not sitting well with me.

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I was obviously suspicious of Korts long before I ever voted him. If I had two votes, one would have been on Korts. I'm pretty sure at one point I even said I'd like to see ckd or Korts dead today. The way Yos says I started pushing a "different" bandwagon, as opposed to one I was already supporting, frames my vote switch completely out of context with the sum of my play today. For him to frame my play as he has, he would have to have either ignored or not read most of my posts. Neither of these are particularly pro-town. That Yos is failing to acknowledge all the relevant information available in his case on me and isolating the bits that he feels he can attack me with is concerning.

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Ok. At one point, you were voting for CKD over Korts, which (I assume) means you thought CKD was scummer then Korts at that moment in time.

Then CKD voted himself; combined with the guardian kill, this put him at lynch -1.

After this point, you for some reason were happier voting Korts over CKD, which (I assume) means you now thought Korts scummier then CKD. You also did not continue to persue or attack CKD in any of your posts after this point.

ckd hadn't responded to my last questions to him before he went inactive. What else was I supposed to say besides asking him to respond to them? (which I did)

This is the thing I can't understand, since I would normally consider someone self-voting would make them more scummy in my eyes, not less. Was there some other factor that made you decide after that point that Korts was scummier then CKD, or am I missing something, or what?

I don't see self-voting as inherently scummy. ckd doesn't look more town for having done it or anything, though, and I

never

said or implied that it did. I've already explained why I switched my vote after

you

asked me. You seemed to have no problem with my answer then, so why did you suddenly start having problems with it now?


And I still don't see how you could say you understand that I was suspicious of Korts yet still frame your case as you have been. You've consistently been pushing that my vote switch was like some panicked and arbitrary jump off of ckd's wagon.


Also, Korts quotes will be coming soon. Probably tomorrow or possibly later tonight. I've been kind of lazy about going through the thread to collect them. =/

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What destructor seemed to be arguing was that if you vote someone, and then they later end up at lynch -2 or lynch -1, you should unvote them just because of that. I find that an absurd argument, and I think that kind of thinking would tend to make games last forever.

I didn't say that. Yos' vote wasn't an L-2 vote. ckd only made it to L-2 when he self-voted. The Guardian kill put him at L-1 and that was when I unvoted because I didn't think a player being at L-1 at that point in the Day was a good thing. My unvote wasn't a comment on anyone else's vote.

Having thought about it more, my biggest issue with Yos is that his case is

bad

. It's not 'weak', in the sense that it's based on something mildly suspicious and nothing else. If what he said was true, I think it'd be a compelling case and I'd probably have to be scum. But it's

not

true, which makes it bad. And this makes me think that Yos had to actually

try

and make it up, as opposed to organically noticing things and seeing them fall into place.

Mod:

Can SensFan be prodded? I think everyone else is accounted for, but, just incase, BM might need one too.

[destructor]

Wait...what's not true? The questions I have with your play?

The way you describe my play. Your case falls apart if this is not true.

By the way, is there a reason you still haven't actually answered my question? I've asked it like 3 times now, and you keep changing the subject.

Why I changed my vote? I've already explained that.

[destructor]

Hello. I'm going to respond to everything I have to respond to and get those Korts quotes later today.

Also, I definitely approve of this:

STRATEGY FOR TOWNIES:

Now that Korts and CKD are head-to-head, and all the scum except BM is off-wagon, let's not move our votes and check out the scum's moves. They may hesitate because they are picking between two scumbags.

[destructor]

Stuff on Korts:

Why is it more interesting that Yos was on the list?

Nice catch. rofl, are you suggesting that Yos is particularly pro-town? Buddying up much?

This was early in the game, but it was still a significant reach to suggest that rofl was calling Yos pro-town.

My issue with his persistent questioning rofl about his questions to DGB and vollkan (around 96) was that it seemed kind of pointless. I thought it could be a way for Korts-scum to be active even though he wasn't really doing much to catch scum. (This ties into my case on ckd. He characterised rofl's play as strained and resembling someone trying to look like they were scum-hunting. I thought this better described Korts' play.)

Korts' unprompted defences for me around here seemed off as well.

225 was where he says Guardian was "on the fence". He's also a bit all over the place, voting for Guardian, accusing DGB of buddying up to players, then accusing Guardian of misrepresenting DGB.

Hmm. So, having done a reread of Korts up to the point when I said I found some of his arguments reachy, I'm not sure why I thought this was so important. Or maybe I didn't. His early play definitely made me uneasy, but it's improved, and I've agreed with some of what he's said, especially in relation to BM. Hmm.


Anyway, here's the crazy idea that's churning around in my head for a good part of today: Korts, ckd and Yos - Mafia. Korts' jab at rofl about Yos was a shot at linking the two. Yos is bussing ckd and his attack on me is an attempt to get something out of ckd's lynch - a mislynch on me. Scum may have killed Guardian and reduced the number to lynch hoping to get a reaction just like mine (someone leaving ckd's wagon) so that they could try and link someone to ckd. It seems kind of tactless, but I've explained how I feel Yos had to have made a special effort to make the case on me he has. Those are the connections but each, or at least ckd and Korts, have their own isolated instances of suspicious behaviour that I picked up on, which is probably what got me looking at them in the first place.

All of this said, I'm pretty sure it isn't that simple and I'm probably wrong about one or two of them. I'm confident, though, that odds of there being at least 1 scum in the 3 is high. I'm just trying to figure out which of the three is a better lynch. Having reread Korts, I'm suddenly leaning ckd or Yos, but maybe I'm second-guessing myself too much, which is something I tend to do. =/ I'll sleep on it.

We've got a little over a week before deadline. I think it'd make sense to see some claims. ckd is the deadline lynch. He's back on the 1st (I think), so I think he should claim first thing.

[destructor]

The above seems obvious to me;

Would someone mind explaining this to the slow kid? I don't get it at all.

I'm not surprised that Kisonscum got it right away. Elmo, who henceforth shall be referred to as a 'townie,' must be on the right track, then.

I think Elmo was saying that scum probably guessed that Guardian was a Tracker based on his questions to Adel.

Also, didn't you think Korts was town once? Why was that?


Also also, I realise Yos had some other questions for me and there's probably other stuff I should respond to, but I'm tired and want to sleep.

[destructor]

Yos is bussing ckd and his attack on me is an attempt to get something out of ckd's lynch - a mislynch on me.

Lol. Is that really going to be your defense now?

Yos, seriously? That was obviously speculation. Enough with the whole quoting me out of context thing!

Wait...what's not true? The questions I have with your play?

The way you describe my play. Your case falls apart if this is not true.

Um...the way I described your play is completly accurate, as far as I can see.

Lines like...

You talked about how my vote was based on gut (which, by the way, I never said), but then, rather then ask me why I was suspicious of CKD, you tried to get me to make a case on someone else.

[... and ...]

Drop your suspicion on him completly, move your vote to a different wagon, and begin to strongly defend him and attack everyone else on his wagon

... are inaccurate descriptions of what I actually did. I've covered this already.

Frankly, I'm not sure why you're making such a big deal about this; I'm not even trying to make a case that we should lynch you today or anything, at least not at the moment; I just want to understand the reasons behind your actions.

Again, I'm certain I've covered this a number of times and you didn't say anything about the explanations lacking then.

Here:

I didn't like the ckd wagon being at L-1. I see no merit in having a wagon that strong where discussion has been relatively limited and some players have contributed little. I already explained that I had moved my vote to my second suspect, levelling the two wagons. I could easily switch back to ckd if I wanted to, making him the deadline lynch, just as much as anyone could change which wagon is leading with a single vote. (Note that since DGB unvoted ckd, Korts has become the deadline lynch).

I asked you and vollkan who else you'd vote for because... I didn't know who else you suspected. Can you answer now?

My reasons were:
- I didn't want a player to be at L-1 at that point in the game because there was probably more to discuss and some players hadn't said much, and
- I didn't know who you or vollkan suspected besides ckd.

1. While you were voting CKD, did you think CKD was scummier then Korts?

2. Now that you are voting Korts, do you think that he is scummier then CKD?

3. If the answer to both 1 and 2 is yes, then what changed your mind?

1. I did when I placed the vote. It was early on, though. Nothing was in stone.
2. I'm not sure.
3. Changing my vote to Korts never implied that I suspected Korts more and this is like the fifth time I'm explaining this. I put my vote where I thought it would be most useful.

[destructor]

Tajo, why would a ckd lynch be more optimal than Korts'? Also, what do you mean by optimal? Informative? Likely to hit scum?

[destructor]

BM's been active in other parts of the site but hasn't posted here since the 28th. His play here is reminding me of how he played as scum in Nice Shot, taking little jabs at people, going inactive and never following through on his suspects or producing a substantial case.

Sens' inactivity gives him negative points too. He's done no scum-hunting in any of his 11 posts. I've got other reasons to suspect him, but I'll have to see him play more before I give them more weight.

[destructor]

Ok, thank you.

So, with #2, in saying you're "not sure", I suppose that means that you currently think CKD and Korts are about equally scummy now, is that right? Could you explain what you think the cases on each one are?

I voted ckd because I thought his attack on rofl was scummy. His reasoning for his case didn't gel with the explanation he gave for voting rofl in the first place - gut. This isn't really a huge discrepancy, but I pointed out that I felt his issues with rofl's play were probably more applicable to Korts'... which in turn had something to do with why I suspected Korts. I listed my thoughts on Korts about 3 posts ago as well as in some other posts (e.g. Korts ignoring the invalidity of ckd's first vote). I also noted that I was more interested in trying to make a case based on connections as opposed to isolated scummy behaviour.

And, could you explain why you think your vote is "more useful" on Korts now then it would be on CKD.

It stopped the day from ending prematurely, it applied pressure to my other suspect, it created a more level vote count meaning any other votes placed could be read into more.

[destructor]

EBWOP:

His reasoning for his case didn't gel with the explanation he gave for voting rofl in the first place - gut. This isn't really a huge discrepancy, but I pointed out that I felt his issues with rofl's

early[/i] play were probably more applicable to Korts'.

[destructor]

asdf

His reasoning for his case didn't gel with the explanation he gave for voting rofl in the first place - gut. This isn't really a huge discrepancy, but I pointed out that I felt his issues with rofl's

early

play were probably more applicable to Korts'.

[destructor]

Without canonising him as Saint Des the Most Protown

LOL

@ everyone

- When you read my play, do you see what Yos is saying about me?

I also think BM absolutely needs to be held accountable for everything he's said today and hasn't answered for yet.

[destructor]

Yos is still pushing bad points on des, which is still scummy.

I was never really "pushing points on DES"; I was just trying to get him to explain himself and just answer a couple of simple questions, and for some reason he spent 10 pages fighting me over it before finally giving me some half-decent answers.

I mean, how is me doing that scummy? What possible scum motive would I have for getting into a side argument with someone who everyone else in the game is apparently already convinced is town?

I'm pretty sure nothing I posted in my last response to you hadn't been posted already. I think that's done for now, though. heh

The last paragraph of the quote above is why I asked everyone if they saw what you did. If not, it lends more credibility to the idea that you had to go out of your way to describe my play as you did.

Do you think there is a case on Korts?

[destructor]

(shrug) I don't think it's especally relevent; even if no one else noticed the exact same thing I did, dosn't mean I'm wrong. Especally if they had already decided you were pro-town before that event happened.

Sure, but everyone else can be better judges of this than me and it would be more meaningfully discussed by other players. I'm basically handballing the argument to everyone else.

[destructor]

BM still hasn't explained why he thought ckd was town in the first place. He's referenced meta at least twice but hasn't explained what that meta is either.

Mod:

I think a few people need prods. Sens and probably Elmo.

Also, I'm going to have limited access until Dec 14.

[destructor]

If Sens posts again and doesn't start contributing, I'm up for lynching him. But Yos' vote for him seems lazy. His whole play so far this game seems lazy. It really doesn't feel like Yos is trying to catch scum. When I look back at his case on me, it still looks like a big show for all the reasons I've stated. Given that ckd was town his case on me obviously doesn't stand, but rather than searching for a new case, he goes on easy mode and joins a lurker wagon.

Yos, if Sens has flaked, will you still vote his replacement? Why?

BM:

Why do you continue to avoid explaining why you thought ckd was town?

[destructor]

... I pretty clearly was just stating clear and obvious facts.

???

You keep accusing me of trying to "create a big show", but you have yet to explain exactally why you think anything about what I did in questioning you yesterday was scummy (keeping in mind that "scummy" means "more likely to come from scum then from town").

???

You're being pretty liberal with your use of the word "fact".

Off the top of my head:
You said I "dropped my suspicion of ckd

completely

." This was NOT a clear OR obvious fact.
You said I was "trying to get people to switch their votes off ckd." This was also not a clear or obvious fact.
I maintain that both of these were clearly and obviously untrue and I say the fact that

no one else

expressed any agreement or support for your case is a testament to this.

Why was this more likely to come from scum? Because your read of me was so counter-intuitive that I suspect you have to

try

and make it out like you did. Townies don't need to try and make someone look more suspicious than they are.

Protip: A lurker wagon is always the right move.

I'm all for lynching lurkers and have seen scum lurk to victory (SensFan himself, in fact), but Sens is looking more like a flaker than a lurker right now. I would call him a lurker if he'd been posting enough to avoid prods without really contributing, which is more likely to be insidious, as opposed to not posting at all to the point of replacement, which is plain flaking.

I want to vote you, but I need to work vollkan out. =/

---

Courtesy of Kison's 691...

Group A

(People that were on ckd's wagon at some point in Day 1):
roflcopter
Yosarian2
populartajo
Korts
vollkan
DGB
destructor

Group B

(People that were never on ckd's wagon):
Elmo
Raging Rabbit
Kison - town
BM
SensFan

---

Suspects from Group A:

Yosarian2
Korts
vollkan

rofl and DGB seem like good guys to me. Tajo seems weakly townish.

Suspects from Group B:

BM
SensFan
Elmo

Sens and Elmo are there by virtue of inactivity.
Raging Rabbit hasn't done anything scummy, so far as I can remember. I think he's been kind of light on posting, though.

I don't think that all of Group A could be scum together.

Of Group B, I noted Elmo saying he might vote Yos but never getting around to it. He did vote for Korts pretty much all through Day 1, so if Yos and Korts are scum together, I'd say Elmo is pretty clear. BM is being nonsensical and evasive. Sens is not here.

With 14 players, a scum group of three seems reasonable. I don't know if my head can get around sorting that list into trios right now.

@ Everyone

Which of the six I've named do you think would give us the most insight to the others' alignments if lynched?
That is, I think we should lynch one of those six and focus on narrowing that list down.

[destructor]

Just for the record, BM also used this tactic in Adel's Nice Shot. Want to take a guess about his alignment?

This.

Vote: Battle Mage

Yes, it is a clear and obvious fact that you never mentioned any suspicion on CKD again after that point. That is what I meant when I said you "dropped your suspicion". As I've already explained.

I don't have the time right now to bring up the quotes to prove that this is untrue.

The fact that you're still OMGUSing me about this, even after the argument has become obsolete, really dosn't make you look good, destructor; are you really that touchy about anyone suspecting you at all?

How is this OMGUS?

And again, "No one else agreed with you, thererfore you're scum!" is a horribly flawed argument, and I'm not sure you realize that.

You asked why I found it scummy. Specifically, how it was more likely to come from scum. I didn't say it made you scum, I explained why it was more likely to come from scum, in your own terms. So this is a strawman.

Um...what? "counter-intuitive"? It was an entierly logical interpretation of a possible motive for your actions. Why is it you don't see that?

Why doesn't anyone else see it?

Isn't Mafia a game of probabilities, of judging whether certain actions are more likely to come from scum than town? Aren't the reactions of every other player in this game reasonable yardsticks to make some of these judgements?

What do you think about [SensFan's] contributions before November 29th, his last post, then?

Not great. I said this in 557:

Sens' inactivity gives him negative points too. He's done no scum-hunting in any of his 11 posts. I've got other reasons to suspect him, but I'll have to see him play more before I give them more weight.

The other reason was a meta from this game: Mini 570.

I also just remembered BM WIFOM'ing us early in the game by implying that Sens was his scum-buddy.

[destructor]

shit
I think I just hammered.

[destructor]

=/

I'm pretty sure we should lynch Yos today.

Vote: Yosarian2

(and welcome to the game FL.)

[destructor]

If it was tunnel-vision I probably would have voted you in Day 1, or at some point in Day 2 at least, wouldn't I? I've been labouring over whether I should try to get you lynched for long enough. The fact that I didn't vote you earlier, even though I was obviously thinking about it, is really more of an indication that I've been holding back to work out whether my read is being tainted by OMGUS. I'm pretty sure this isn't OMGUS. If it had been someone else you'd made that case on in Day 1 I'd feel the same way about it.

I also very interested in seeing who else is willing to lynch you.

[destructor]

Proof that I hadn't dropped suspicion of ckd after unvoting him.

Hmm.

Unvote
Vote: Korts

ckd, I still want to see you responding to the posts I mentioned.

Des unvoted....now why would he do that?

I could have left you at L-1. I don't see what's wrong with me changing to my other suspect. Also, not including your self-vote, you and Korts are equal in the vote count.

I already explained that I had moved my vote to my second suspect, levelling the two wagons. I could easily switch back to ckd if I wanted to, making him the deadline lynch, just as much as anyone could change which wagon is leading with a single vote.

How did you miss this one?:

It is reaching…but NOT THAT reachy. It was early in the game…I upgraded my random vote (korts) to rofl who I felt might be making some scummy posts…and while you deem this as not prodding or probing, look at the reaction to come out of it. Now, I am not saying I did this for a reaction, but I didn’t do it to be safe either. I would not have advocated lynching rofl at the moment based on that, but it was enough for me to change my vote.

I should clarify. By saying it wasn't prodding or probing, I meant that you were actually accusing rofl of being scum. I should have said that it was

more than

prodding and probing. The quotes I posted made this evident. I didn't like the fact that you tried to downplay how serious you were about it all ("I am not trying to parade it as anything else").

Nothing..couple jokes..random votes…he wasn’t doing much of anything..but that was what most of goes on Day 1 in the first pages of a game…it was different in rofl play…I assume you are asking me about Korts at this point because I had my random vote on him…but what did anybody do in the first 5 pages of the game…other than BM spamming the thread..nothing really got this game going until my attack of rofl.

to me, just seems like someone who is trying to look like they are scum hunting...again this is just a couple pages into the game.

My question is, really, what made rofl's scum-hunting seem forced but Korts' seem genuine? For example, do you think Korts' suggestion that rofl was trying to buddy up to Yos wasn't tenuous and forced?

Given that it's been pointed out that BM has declared that you're town past the random stage, can you answer rofl's questions here again?

ckd, kison: how does bm's declaration that ckd is protown differ from my own about des, and why has it gone ignored by you two up to this point?

This was all before you said:

What you did instead (Drop your suspicion on him completly, move your vote to a different wagon, and begin to strongly defend him and attack everyone else on his wagon) is quite confusing if you really are a townie who previously thought he was suspicious looking, unless A. you thought there was new evidence pointing to him being town, or B. you never actually wanted to lynch him in the first place, you just wanted it to look like you did.

Which, even as speculation, is still a huge leap from the evidence.

[destructor]

Um, none of that is "proof" of anything. Not one of those posts was any kind of actual attack against CKD, or case against him, or pressure on him.

But they clearly show me dropping all suspicion of ckd?

You were claimng you were suspicious of him, but it didn't look like you really were.

I'm pretty sure 409 shows me doing everything you say I wasn't.
What, specifically, gives you the impression that I wasn't actually suspicious of ckd? Impression is too soft a word to use here actually, because you were implying that you had more than an impression at the time.

[destructor]

Um, none of that is "proof" of anything. Not one of those posts was any kind of actual attack against CKD, or case against him, or pressure on him.

But they clearly show me dropping all suspicion of ckd?

Well, it certanly looks like you didn't want to go after him there in those posts. I'm not sure why you're quibbling over semantics here; you know what I mean.

Because you've never actually substantiated that claim.

You are now saying that I wasn't "acting in such a way that would actually raise the pressure on CKD," which is notably different from suggesting that I obviously and perceptibly stopped suspecting him. Are you backtracking?

I think you said at some point that my case on you was all about your case on me. It is what I've posted the most about, but I don't recall you doing a heap of scum-hunting either and that is definitely a factor here. Most of your votes seem to have been made without a huge amount of consideration. That is, you've been going after easy targets and I've seen little evidence of you doing much to proactively catch scum.


I'm hoping it's clearer now why I say Yos' play was counter-intuitive as town. I'm bringing the posts up and demonstrating how they suggest that Yos' case on me was a reach. He's even said it was a leap himself.

To me, it doesn't look like Yos followed a train of thought that is natural to scum-hunting - seeing point A (me unvoting ckd) and, exploring it, coming to a logical conclusion, point B (I was distancing from ckd). It looks more like he saw point A and then went about trying to connect it to a point B rather than organically arriving at it.


I would really like to hear Raging Rabbit, Elmo, Tajo and FL comment on the cases on both me and Yos. With my case, I guess it'd be commenting on how valid Yos' points looked in context.

[destructor]

Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching.

What about the rest of Yos' play?

This quote actually reminds me of the time you ignored ckd's reasons for voting rofl... selective commentary, or something... like your giving the discussion lip service without actually saying anything.

Which of the six I've named do you think would give us the most insight to the others' alignments if lynched?
That is, I think we should lynch one of those six and focus on narrowing that list down.

I actually dislike this post since it seems to be lining up lynches that could be completely off, and if enough of them are wrong, cause a win for des scum. Not sure if I think you are scum or not, but I think your idea was horrible.

It's some basic vote count analysis. Scum know who each other are and so it's usually safe to assume that their play will be influenced by how their buddies vote. I split my suspects into those on ckd's wagon and those off because I tend to think scum won't all vote together.

The list looks like this now:

Suspects from Group A:

Yosarian2
Korts
vollkan

Suspects from Group B:

SensFan

forbiddanlight
Elmo

I'm thinking a scum-team like Yos, Korts, {FL, Elmo} is most likely right now. I suppose FL and Elmo could be scum together and only one of Yos, Korts and vollkan is scum. If I'm wrong about this, I'll have to look at rofl, DGB and Tajo again but none of them have given me many reasons to think they're scum so far.

I know Elmo's having computer issues. I hope he's back before long because if he's town I'm sure he'll be extremely helpful.

[destructor]

I've been scumhunting pretty consistatnly all game. In fact, the reason you're attacking me here is because I was scumhunting and trying to find out if you were scum. Contradiction much?

...

For that matter, if I was scum, what would I stand to gain from speculating about a possible link day 1 between you and CKD?

I call it a show. The whole idea was to make it look like you

were

scum hunting.

I saw point A, you unvoting CKD in a situation where, well, where it's totally counter-intuitive a townie would; point B, you then stopped putting pressure on CKD, and point C, you started trying to get other people to be less focused on CKD. I came to the possible conclusion that you didn't want CKD lynched at that point, for whatever reason; and even then I didn't assume you were scum, I considered that you might be linked to him, or you might have changed your mind and now thought he was town. How is that not a "natural train of thought" in scum-hunting?

I don't believe it's counter-intuitive to unvote to avoid a day ending sooner than it needs to. Point B and C never actually happened. *cue repeat*

[destructor]

Korts, do you like my list?

[destructor]

How about the people I left off? rofl, DGB and Tajo.

[destructor]

Mmm. Yosarian's reach on des might have been a distancing attempt, especially since he kept reiterating that he wasn't attacking des for the points he raised, merely questioning him.

What?! You think we were

distancing?!

Vote: Korts

L-2

Mod:

Can Elmo be prodded? I think it's been 72 hours now.
I'm getting wary of his inactivity. We need to hear what he's thinking asap.

[destructor]

Why do people think Korts is a Vig as opposed to an SK?
Doesn't a Guardian kill make more sense from an SK? If he suspected Guardian on the basis of ckd being scum, why not kill ckd and start building a case on Guardian? And Kison was going to post analysis on the ckd wagon, which, if Kison was scum, would have given scum-hunting-Korts more info to work with and find Kison's scum-buddies with. Not convinced that he suspected Yos enough to warrant Vigging, as opposed to outright killing, either.

I don't think Korts' play makes sense as a Vig. It's too careless.

[destructor]

Korts, you cut Guardian short like you did Kison. Guardian was just about to post a defence of ckd and more:

CKD is under such suspicion and likely lynch that I would like to say some things in his defense, and I have a hell of a lot more I want to say today before ckd gets hammered. I prefer short days, but I prefer that we end days when we choose to, not because we didn't realize scum could kill someone and reduce the requirements to lynch.

His request for someone to unvote was reasonable for someone who said they didn't think ckd was scum. I don't see why you would have seen this as an

insidious

defence of ckd.

Besides the defence, from what I can read, this was your case on Guardian:

Here are the things I think are scumtells of the points against Guardian:

The conflict of projected motives; Guardian's "So does it indicate nothing or does it indicate that he is SK?" question, although to very minor degree; his implication that self-voting is inherently scummy.

You had conceded on the other points, like Guardian fence-sitting.

The Kison kill is almost completely random. I can see breadcrumbs for it, but the fact that you never actually explained what gave you a gut feeling that he was scum and actually went ahead and killed on gut alone is definitely points against you. That sort of play makes much more sense as coming from an SK playing like a Vig. I would expect a town killer to be far more careful.

And you on Yos:

Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching.

Basically, no read on Yos.

To be honest, I haven't had the time to thoroughly go through your row. As much as I gathered, Yos starts out slightly reaching, but has a valid point in you apparently dropping much of the suspicion you had on CKD. He seems to be tunneling pretty much exclusively on you, though, and apart from an exchange with vollkan on the same topic, and the push on the obvious BM lynch, he hasn't really commented on anything else.

Still no firm stance on Yos.

I agree that forb deserves suspicion. The Yosarian-suspicion I agree with to a lesser extent.

So why didn't you kill FL? Instead you kill a player who you are less suspicious of than FL, who, from what I could tell, you were mildly suspicious of.

Similar question with Guardian. You were voting BM at the time. Why not kill BM then?

[destructor]

FL, why do you believe that Korts has claimed truthfully?
Do you think RR is town?


RR, what do you make of Korts' claim? Who else do you suspect now?

[destructor]

Re: the Guardian-kill--my case wasn't enough to lynch, I give you that. Which is why I opted for vidging, instead. His defense of CKD wasn't explicit, you're right in that, des, but the urgency in his tone suggested, to me, that he really didn't want CKD lynched.

I actually think his defence of ckd

was

obvious, even if he never really explained it, and he hadn't seem to try to hide that at any point. What I'm not seeing is why you perceived it as scummy at all.

@Des:

Why do people think Korts is a Vig as opposed to an SK?

What stops him being mafia either? He's claimed the Yos kill, but I can't see what makes it necessarily the case that he commited it...

Well, the lack of counter-claim is the first thing I think of. I considered that he might still be Yos' scum-buddy, but that would have meant to me that the Inuit Mafia killed their Godfather or Korts is trying to flush the real Vig/SK out. If Korts is

Mafia

, I'd make much more sense that he was part of a second Mafia group, which is a possibility no one's really raised yet.

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I'm not sure that vollkan is scum. My biggest issue with him was how he seemed to miss that Yos' ckd vote kept ckd at L-1. I don't think there is much more of a case on him or if that's enough on its own.

I'd rather lynch FL today. Vollkan's definitely been coming out on top in their exchange mostly because he's making complete sense while FL seems to be more interested in portraying vollkan's every move as that of ovbscum.

About Korts, if he's an SK, I don't think it's a good idea to keep him alive. We could end up in a prisoners dilemma before we knew it. I do think the number of kills we've seen increase the chances of him being an SK over doc protections/roleblocks as well. If we're going to lynch him, it should be sooner rather than later.

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I do think the number of kills we've seen increase the chances of him being an SK over doc protections/roleblocks as well.

That said, I'm not sure how likely a kill Korts was for the Mafia in the first place.

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4am posting!

I've decided that now is not the time to work out what the deal with all the night kills is. Assuming that we're missing some because Korts-SK was targeted by Mafia is speculation and not some I'm particularly confident about.

Elmo's looking more town than FL and I'm thinking Korts isn't the lynch today.

Unvote
Vote: fobiddanlight

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Wtf is with the vollkan and Elmo hate? Maybe they are scum, but I'm not seeing anything close to a compelling case on either. The only player I've seen really post something that resembles a case on vollkan is FL, and I disagree with just about all of what she posted in it.

Tajo, what are you thinking? Can you give us a player by player run down?

rofl, I'm not getting what you're saying about real lynches. Yours is the only vote on Elmo. Do you think his lynch is likely today?

Korts, why is Elmo scum?

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The only part of vollkan's list I'm uneasy about is his read on RR. I know he hasn't done anything obviously scummy, but I'm worried that maybe he's flying under the radar. I feel like most of his posts have only been about Korts.

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Suspects from Group A:

Dead

Yosarian2 - Inuit Godfather

Alive

Korts (Claimed Vig, possible SK, very likely not part of the Inuit Mafia.)
vollkan (Claimed Townie)

DGB seem like a good guys to me. Tajo seems weakly townish.

Suspects from Group B:

Dead

BM - Townie

SensFan - Iniut Goon

Alive

Elmo

The list is still good.

Of Group B, I noted Elmo saying he might vote Yos but never getting around to it. He did vote for Korts pretty much all through Day 1, so if Yos and Korts are scum together, I'd say Elmo is pretty clear.

I doubt that Korts is Inuit Mafia, so I need to look at Elmo's interaction with Yos and Sens/FL again.

I think it'll be safe to say that anyone rofl declared town after Day 1 is very likely town.

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rofl dying means, assuming we have 3 Mafia, the last Mafiate is not a Mafia Doctor.

I could support a massclaim today. I'd like to see claims in this order:
Elmo
Tajo
Raging Rabbit
DBG

I'd prefer to go last, unless someone has a reason for me to go earlier.

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Maybe massclaim isn't so useful.

Elmo is my first choice for a lynch. I'm doing some reading over his involvement in the FL wagon and he seems overly cautious about it, like he was biding his time, hoping he wouldn't have to join it if he didn't need to. I'm also fairly suspicious of how silent he became about Yos and, again, how he seemed to bide his time without committing to a position on Yos until after he was killed.

If vollkan is scum, he was distancing from Yos and being bussed by FL. Possible, but I don't see why the Inuit mafia would have thought that that was necessary.

FL trying to link DGB and Yos makes DGB look more like town.

RR still seems townish, but I think he could pull all of this off as scum... except...

dgb, des and raging rabbit are all surely town, so i think we're in pretty great shape right now.

Dunno if this means he protected the three of us the last three days.

I will do some rereading, but I'm definitely leaning towards Korts killing Elmo today.

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Elmo is lying.

There are three basic categories:
1. Instant actions: kills
2. Rest of day actions: block, protect
3. End of day actions: investigations

Investigations are resolved at the end of the day, so he couldn't have "just" gotten a guilty on vollkan and he put the X on BM before Day 1 ended.

Regardless of this, by elimination, Elmo makes the most sense as the scum-buddy of Yos and FL.

I think it's time for Korts to kill.

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Like I'd ever make that kind of mistake. Pfft!

LOL.

Hmm.

Then there's not that much to argue about here.

Well that's game. Vig me. Lynch Elmo. Lynch Korts.

Sounds like the best plan, assuming the game doesn't end with vollkan's death.

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DGB, BM was quick lynched courtesy of rofl and I.
vollkan is the best play right now - if he flips town, we know that Elmo is lying and lynch him. I'm mostly just waiting for Korts to put the kill in for now.

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It's been more than 2 hours since Korts says he submitted the kill and Adel has posted on site without posting a death scene.

Assuming no kill goes through...
1. Korts has been blocked
or
2. Korts is the SK who didn't sent his kill in.

Mod:

Is the SK immune to it's own kills?

Elmo, why'd you investigate vollkan and not Korts?


If Korts' kill doesn't happen, I think we should lynch vollkan anyway. If he's town, we get Korts to kill Elmo tomorrow and, assuming the game doesn't end, the numbers will probably look something like this:
5 Alive, made of 0-1 Mafia, 0-1 SK, 3-4 Town

If one of the Mafia is still alive and kills:
4 Alive, made of 0-1 Mafia, 0-1 SK, 2-3 Town, which could be LYLO.

This is a little scary.

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Elmo claiming an innocent on me makes me the only truely confirmed player, since we can't be scum together - 5 is just way excessive.

I hadn't noticed this. I suppose it's true, unless Elmo is a Cop and you're a second Godfather.

Thinking...
1 Mafia Godfather
2-3 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia [something]
1 Vig
1 Tracker
1 Doctor
1 Cop
3 Townies
3 Unclaimed

Eh, it really doesn't seem likely. We were lucky as hell that the Mafia didn't get any kills in on the first 3 days. We could have a Roleblocker or a duplicate power role who hasn't claimed yet, but to me that would only make the setup more swingy if we have 4 Mafia. I think a second Mafia Godfather could actually be balanced here, though, even if Korts is an SK.

All of this said, I'm pretty confident that the last scum is Korts the SK.

But, just in case.

We have at most 2 scum from different factions left. There are 6 alive and the option of a lynch today.

A.
If we no lynch today, we enter day 5 with 6 alive and will see up to 3 deaths. If there ARE 2 scum left and all of the deaths tomorrow are of town, it'll be a prisoners dilemma.

B.
If we lynch today, we enter Day 5 with 5 alive and will see up to 3 deaths (unless we lynched scum). If all of the deaths are of town, the town loses.

C.
If we lynch Korts today, who we know is a killer, we enter Day 5 with 5 alive and will see up to 2 deaths. If both deaths are of town, we'll be in a 3 player end-game.

B could be the same as C if we lynch Korts tomorrow before he puts a kill in. But what would be the point of that? I think it's come to a point of the game where a Compulsive Vig is a liability anyway.

If there are 2 scum left, Korts IS one of them. So, now's the time to lynch him.

Vote: Korts

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Elmo claiming an innocent on me makes me the only truely confirmed player, since we can't be scum together - 5 is just way excessive.

I hadn't noticed this. I suppose it's true, unless Elmo is a Cop and you're a second Godfather.

Whoops. That wasn't Korts. It was the Rabbit.

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Lynch tajo - 5 alive
Elmo investigates Korts then killed - 4 alive
Lynch Korts or DGB - 3 alive (RR, des, {DGB, Korts})

What if Elmo is scum but Korts is still an SK?
How do we know that Elmo-town will get an investigation in before scum kill him?
Scum killing

anyone

besides Elmo or Korts, or Elmo before he claims his investigation, puts a spanner in the works, doesn't it?

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I do like your plan though, RR, and think it's unlikely that there are any Mafia left. I just think controlling the number of kills per day and players that are alive is the safest route right now.

Elmo, I'm curious about the other problem. Would it be detrimental to the town to say what it is? (This isn't me specifically asking.)

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I agree that you should hammer. I think Tajo would be a good investigation.

Not sure why we should be massclaiming now. Why not after we lynch Korts?

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I'm still not sure that lynching Tajo is the best play. I see lynching Korts as ultimately leading to the same thing, only the town will have more control over who dies and when.

Why do you think that Tajo is Mafia?

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Hello. I hope you all enjoyed the christmas time. I apologise for not letting you all know before disappearing for a bit.

I think both plans are essentially the same so long as Elmo hammers and makes sure Adel is online to receive his investigation and give him a result.

Tajo, are you okay with being lynched today for RR's plan?
Elmo, are you okay with being killed by Korts for RR's plan?

Korts, are you okay with being lynched today for my plan?

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My only reservation about RR's plan comes from the fact if he's Mafia we will probably lose. I'm paranoid. But yeah, I'm down with the plan. Lynch Tajo today, investigate Korts tomorrow.

Make it so, El-mo.

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Well, that's what my plan was. Lynch Korts and control the potential number of kills per day. Korts is compulsive either as an SK or a Vig, so if he's dead, even as a vig, the town will have more control of who dies and when.

I'm still not 100% sure on RR because I think a 4 man scum team of 2 Goons and 2 Godfathers would be balanced in this setup with Korts as Vig or SK (that's also taking a Cop and Tracker into account), which is my greatest issue with the plan as it is. Also, the number of kills involved, yours then Elmo's, seems like overkill. I'd still support a Korts lynch today since I don't see you (Tajo) as scum.

Elmo, please wait before hammering!

RR, if there's one more Mafia member left, what role do you think they are?

Also, Elmo, do you think Tajo is scummy?
I'm going to look at RR's case on Tajo again.

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One of the most attractive features of a Korts lynch is that if the game continues to Day 5, we can

know

that there is one Mafia left and will have at least 2 days to work out who it is with the option of no lynching for further investigations/actions.

Actually, if we lynch Korts, I think the plan should be to have Elmo investigate DGB or Tajo and vote for No Lynch immediately, hopefully before scum get a kill in, then repeat it again in Day 6. If we pull anther deathless day off, Elmo could claim a result on every player and we'd still have 5 alive, which would give us at least two lynches to find the last scum.

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Eh, I thought the setup in Nice shot was abnormal so far as convention goes, but it certainly wasn't unreasonable.

Do you think the setup is balanced with a Cop, Doc, Tracker, SK/Vig vs 2 Goons and 1 GF? Didn't you say you thought scum would at least have a Roleblocker?

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I'm about to go to bed. Slightly random and highly likely not to be useful, but anyone have any ideas of why Adel called this "Crackers"? She said she called her last game Nice Shot because she thought a Hider being killed while hiding would play a pivotal role in the outcome of the game. I guess it very vaguely alluded to the presence of Hiders in the game. the only thing that came to my mind about Crackers! was C(op) + (T)racker = Crackers, but who knows what that's supposed to mean. They can crack the setup open? eh.

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=/

Let me try to sort this out...

If we lynch Tajo, one of the following is likely to happen.

• 1. Tajo is Mafia.
  • 1.1. The game ends.
    Town wins.
    
    1.2. Day 5 starts with 5 alive (probably 4 Town, 1 Scum). Elmo investigates Korts, claims result, and is killed by Korts.
    • 1.2.1. Elmo is Mafia. The game will probably end.
      Town wins.
      
      1.2.2. Elmo is Town. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, DGB, RR, des (probably 3 Town and 1 Scum)
      • 1.2.2.1. Elmo claimed a guilty on Korts. We lynch Korts. The game will probably end.
        Town wins.
        
        1.2.2.2. Elmo claimed an innocent on Korts. We lynch DGB.
        • 1.2.2.2.1. DGB is Mafia. The game will probably end.
          Town wins.
          
          1.2.2.2.2. DGB is Town. Day 5 continues with 3 alive - Korts, RR, des.
          The Town

          will

          lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc
          , in which case we have a 3-player end-game with 1 confirmed innocent (Korts, on account of him being an Vig).
  2. Tajo is Town. Day 5 starts with 5 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, Elmo, des (probably 3-4 Town, 1-2 Scum). Elmo investigates Korts, claims result, and is killed by Korts.
  • 2.1. Elmo is Mafia.
    • 2.1.1. The game ends.
      Town wins.
      
      2.1.2. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, des (probably 3 Town, 1 Scum).
      Town gets 1 mislynch before being end-gamed
      unless the last scum is a Mafia Doc, in which case we get 2. A 5 player Mafia groups seems unlikely. The last scum would probably be SK-Korts.
    2.2. Elmo is Town. Day 5 continues with 4 alive - Korts, RR, DGB, des (probably 1-2 Town, 1-2 Scum).
    • 2.2.1. Elmo has claimed a guilty on Korts. We lynch Korts.
      • 2.2.1.1. The game will end.
        Town wins.
        
        2.2.1.2. Day 6 begins with 3 alive - DGB, RR, des.
        The Town

        will

        lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc.
      2.2.2. Elmo has claimed an innocent on Korts. We lynch DGB.
      • 2.2.2.1. DGB is Mafia. The game will probably end.
        Town wins.
        
        2.2.2.2. DGB is Town. Day 5 continues with 3 alive - Korts, RR, des.
        The Town

        will

        lose unless we lynch scum before they get a kill in or the last scum is a Mafia Doc
        , in which case we have a 3-player end-game with 1 confirmed innocent (Korts, on account of him being an Vig).

Nothing above takes the threat of a Mafia kill into account. If the Mafia are still alive, we'll be in a prisoners dilemma, that is, the town will lose.

Which is one of the biggest problems I've had with RR pushing the plan at all. The plan is supposed to protect the town from the possibility of there being another Mafia member left but it doesn't seem to take the risk of being put into a prisoner's dilemma into account. If Korts is an SK, his play tomorrow will not be to kill Elmo at all. It will be to kill someone else and make us figure out whether we can trust Elmo's results. If there is Mafia still alive, their play would be not to kill and hope the town lynches Korts anyway, at which point we'd enter Day 6 with 3 alive and be end-gamed when they submit a kill. In fact, if Korts

doesn't

kill Elmo, whichever way we lynch tomorrow we lose. A SK

will

put us in a pseudo prisoner's dilemma by NOT killing Elmo tomorrow. (Assuming Tajo isn't scum.)

Regardless of what result Elmo claims on Korts, what incentive is there for him, as an SK, to kill him for the town? Killing Elmo will only either confirm all of his investigations are true or kill the last member of the Mafia, both of which make winning as SK harder. This is a pretty big hole in the plan.

I don't see anyone as more likely to be scum than Korts. If we lynch him today we don't have to worry about prisoner's dilemmas, we will probably win straight away and if we don't, we'll go into Day 5 with 5 alive knowing that there is one Mafia left and be able to play accordingly.

Not lynching Korts today means we're left with questions if he refuses to kill Elmo and if we have two scum left, the town is pretty much all but guaranteed to lose.

I say we lynch Korts today then go back to old fashioned scum-hunting tomorrow if we don't win before that. If I've missed something, someone let me know.


Regarding the normality of the setup, I thought "normal" referred to the nature of the roles included and not the combination of them. I don't think two Godfathers is unbalanced in a 14 player setup and I believe that's more important to consider than what is conventional, especially with a mod like Adel.

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On top of this, that Korts hasn't been involved in this discussion increases the chances of him being anti-town. As town, I would expect him to be contributing, looking for the last scum since, as a Vig, he'd

know

that there's Mafia left alive. Instead, he's mostly stopped posting altogether.

If Korts' lynch doesn't end the game, I'd rather hear Elmo's result on DGB tomorrow. I think he's expressed more reasons for believing everyone else to be town. So far as I can tell, he's got the least pro-town read on DGB. Is this right, Elmo?

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Yeah, I haven't been participating in the discussion of possibilities mostly because I have bigger things looming at the moment than mafia, and partly because the decision isn't down to me anyway and I much rather would like to see someone unbiased go through with the numbers than mess up and be accused of fiddling with the probabilities and stuff.

I'm pretty sure the remaining scum is either pop or DGB. Other than that I have nothing in particular to add.

I've seen you posting frequently around the site.

Also, finding the last member of the Mafia doesn't require you to look at numbers. It would have more to do with making cases.

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What is the difference between mislynching Tajo and mislynching Korts?
In either case Elmo can still investigate one of Tajo, Korts and DGB and we can still chose to kill Elmo and confirm his investigations leaving us with the choice of lynching whoever is left at the end. The only difference is that lynching Korts

definitely

avoids a prisoner's dilemma. Do you see a problem with this RR?

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What do you make of my analysis, des?

It's very reasonable. But I'm still paranoid about the possibility of two scum remaining and how not lynching Korts today in this situation will inevitably lead to a town loss. I'm very confident that he's the last scum, so there's a good chance that all this worry will have been for nothing.

Des, if we lynch Korts, then we'd have five alive tomorrow; minus the mafia kill, that puts us with four alive in LyLo. So we couldn't practically lynch me to confirm my results, right?

You're right. This was the advantage of having Korts kill you. hmm

Would you be willing to self-hammer right after you claim a result, aiming to do so before a kill goes through?

Otherwise, yeah, this is a big advantage in RR's plan. I'm still really caught up on the whole two scum left thing. *pulls out hair*


(I just realised that a SK is more likely to win in a prisoner's dilemma in this setup. They can't be nightkilled. Mafia

might

win if they convince the townie to lynch the SK. The Town can never win.)


Ok. Tajo, sorry, but I am agreeing with covering the bases. If RR is scum, he's devious. Otherwise, we're going to win, whether you're mislynched or not.

Unvote
Vote: populartajo

Korts, if you kill anyone other than Elmo tomorrow, or before Elmo claims a result, I'm voting you on principle!

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I was actually thinking that DGB would be a better choice. I've never seen you play as scum, but you're reactions aren't like what I'd expect from scum either and can be contrasted with Korts', even though he's claiming LA.

RR, are you still around? I'm willing to vote DGB if you are. I know that rofl seemed to breadcrumb a DGB protection, but I don't know if she was a likely nightkill. It might have been that scum tried to kill SK-Korts on the day he protected or DGB, if he protected her at all.

Tajo, you should probably change your vote to DGB because I don't think Korts is going to be lynched to day. You're the deadline lynch at the moment.

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LOL!
I find this all so amusing.

If Korts is a Vig, he should have no issues with killing Elmo since Elmo would have to be Mafia. So, Korts, kill!!

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I wanted to be on that wagon. =(

I hope we can say gg now.
*twiddles thumbs*

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=)

This is possibly the most enjoyable game I've played on ms. You guys were all great to play with, so thank you for that. I probably won't be joining a new game any time soon but hopefully I'll be able to play with some of you again if/when I play again. Adel, thanks for making such an interesting and enjoyable game for us.

I've nominated it for a Most Enjoyable Game scummie here.

I think our powerroles played great. rofl's protections were obviously well chosen and his "town-fishing" was something special, haha. Elmo played a good Cop. I appreciated his comment about trying to play just scummily enough not to be a nightkill but also not be a huge suspect and I think he did that well.

Guardian, was there a reason in particular that you chose to track me? Also, can you remember why you thought ckd was town?

Most of our vanillas were awesome too. Despite my paranoia, RR's play was effective and very pro-town. I'm not sure what BM was on this game and I think his lynch did actually help the town (besides the fact that I hammered early ), so I guess that was an exception, ha. I was looking forward to more insights from Kison. He was looking pretty pro-town to me as well. Even Tajo seemed so town to me.

On that, was it really the best play to lynch him yesterday? We were all certain that Korts was the SK and most of us were also fairly certain that Tajo would flip town. But we lynched him anyway. I know that it did increase our chances of winning so I'm still trying to work out how it all made sense. I guess we decided to side with the numbers over our 'feelings' or something like that.