Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Sierra]

Vote ooba

for sucking up to the mod with an animated avatar.

[Sierra]

Vote ooba

for sucking up to the mod with an animated avatar.

You're clearly ignoring Shadowgirl's animated avatar.

FoS: Sierra

Look again.

[Sierra]

Vote: DynamoXI

Unvote, vote skitzer

for not having some witty/funny comment with his random vote.

[Sierra]

ARRGGH!!!

The problem with this is I don't know who is serious and who isn't...

Sierra, Cybele, BA, clarify your vote as random or serious, please.

That vote was as random as they get.

[Sierra]

Pressure on Stef is good. I'll wait to see how he responds to the accusations above before I decide whether or not to put my vote there.

Im bored.
Im vanilla.
Discuss.

Claiming vanilla this early is -usually- bad play if you're town, even if you were only joking (which I can't tell for sure).

FOS populartajo.

Sorry. Frankly, large group discussion isn't my forte. Also, random voting is also my least favorite stage of the entire game.

Not participating in the random voting stage is scummy in my book.

Unvote, vote Seraphim.

Now that the randomness seems to be ending, I'd like to see you post more often.

[Sierra]

Not participating in the random voting stage is scummy in my book.

Why? Could you be specific as why you think that scum are more likely to skip the random voting phase?

By not participating in the random voting phase you are denying other players from getting any kind of read on you. Just because someone doesn't like that stage of the game, doesn't mean he should be allowed to get off not participating in it.

[

Pressure on Stef is good. I'll wait to see how he responds to the accusations above before I decide whether or not to put my vote there.

[...]

Only the existence of Stef prevents me from voting you for the italicized portion of this post.

FoS: Sierra

Please explain what you don't like about that sentence.

[Sierra]

To answer some questions directed at me:

By not participating in the random voting phase you are denying other players from getting any kind of read on you. Just because someone doesn't like that stage of the game, doesn't mean he should be allowed to get off not participating in it.

So, its sort of a lurking scumtell, you're saying? Do you find lurkers are more often scum?

In short: yes and yes.

By not participating in the random voting phase you are denying other players from getting any kind of read on you. Just because someone doesn't like that stage of the game, doesn't mean he should be allowed to get off not participating in it.

I didn't place a random vote... why isn't that suspicious?

Checking back, there are actually several others who didn't vote or only posted once in the random voting stage. Seraphim got my vote, because he happened to be the one who caught my eye and because he gave a reason for not contributing that I didn't agree with.

1) Please phrase your questions better. It's not so much that I don't like your sentence as that I find said sentence very, very scummy.

2) What is so scummy about your sentence? That would be your approval of the Stef wagon without actually placing a vote or FoS on him. It gave me the strong impression that you were trying to push along a wagon without actually committing to said wagon, which I generally find to be a sign of scum who either don't want to be tied to a bad wagon or scum who don't want to draw the attention of a well-known town player.

I see how you could interpret it as such. The reason for me supporting the pressure on Stef but voting and FOSsing other players, was because I don't think it's a good idea to focus the entirety of the town's attention on one person. At that moment, the lead on Stef was the only lead that was being pursued, while I found Seraphim and Tajo also deserved some of that attention. That's why I didn't vote Stef.


I notice that Stef's posting doesn't look newbish at all. Stef, if you don't mind me asking: how much experience do you have with mafia on other forums?

[Sierra]

In short: yes and yes.

Care to back that up? I bet you for every one lurking scum you can find, I can find two lurking town.

Lurking is bad for town, so by definition lurking is scummy. You are right when you say that there are also townies that lurk, but that's like saying there are also townies who commit scumtells. That's no reason not to vote someone for it. I'm very doubtful if there are really that many more lurking town than there are lurking scum, but I don't think that would be a very fruitful discussion at this point.

[Sierra]

When I wrote this:

Im bored.
Im vanilla.
Discuss.

Claiming vanilla this early is -usually- bad play if you're town, even if you were only joking (which I can't tell for sure).

FOS populartajo.

the reason I used the word "usually" is because I thought of one exception where it would not be bad play to claim vanilla: when you're a doctor. I find it very odd how nobody (except ShadowGirl) appears to be even considering the fact that Tajo is really a doctor.

The deadline for this day is still 3 weeks away; there's no need for a hasty lynch.

@Tajo: enough with the caps please.

The reason for me supporting the pressure on Stef but voting and FOSsing other players, was because I don't think it's a good idea to focus the entirety of the town's attention on one person. At that moment, the lead on Stef was the only lead that was being pursued, while I found Seraphim and Tajo also deserved some of that attention. That's why I didn't vote Stef.

Aww. I defended you the first time and now you post something like this. The previous page focused primarily on Cybele and PT. That's hardly the town's attention focused on one person.

I wouldn't call the arguments against Cybele at that point a valid case. It was bound to be buried under the arguments against Stef and PT. So you're right when you say the town's attention wasn't focussed on one person, it was actually two: Stef and PT. I wanted to add a third. (and then ended up being that third suspect myself - oh the irony)


I'm sad to see my vote on Seraphim doesn't appear to have had any impact. All he's posted since then was

Though I haven't done much in this game, it's mostly because big games scare me. I'd like a vote count before I start posting actively; I don't want to, like BlakAdder, hammer someone prematurely.

which is almost a repeat of his post before that

Sorry. Frankly, large group discussion isn't my forte. Also, random voting is also my least favorite stage of the entire game.

Why join a 24-player game if you don't plan on participating in such discussions?

[Sierra]

Checking in! Don't have time to read up right now, but you'll hear from me tomorrow.

[Sierra]

Looking back at day 1 when Stef was getting pressured for saying "what's with all the questions?" and ooba presents his WIFOM + smillie-meta argument, a few people stand out.

I think Tajo was worse.

Vote: Tajo

Im bored.
Im vanilla.
Discuss.

Unvote, Vote: populartajo

There is absolutely no valid reason whatsoever for a townie to claim like that. More votes for tajoscum please.

[...]

Empking

and

EA

push the Tajo case, possibly hoping to draw attention away from Stef (Empking explicitely states he likes the Tajo case better than the one on Stef, EA ignores the one on Stef. I'm not sure which is worse).

You are all right! I'm scum and i'm trying to get myself lynched. That's way more probable than me Joking.

This is soo wrong ..

Plus although you use a lot of smileys, this is the first time you've used a 'lol' smiley in all your games on MS till now ..

The WIFOM statement followed by a deviation from your normal posting practice leads me to ..

Unvote. Vote : Stef

wow - Do you keep track of my smileys too? I think some meta is valuable, but this may be going a bit too far...

It is? Didn't know that. [sarcasm]I'll never use a smiley ever again[/sarcasm]

[...]

sekinj

and

Ku_F

look to be defending Stef by discrediting ooba's smilie-meta argument.


However, none of these 4 are as scummy as BlakAdder. CKD's post 309 says it best. BlakAdder looks to have been planning to use the Tajo lynch as a way to get suspicion off of Stef.

Vote BlakAdder.

[...]there is too much uniformity on ba which makes me think lynching him would be a mistake.

This is an argument I would agree with in some cases, but when there is evidence at hand as clear as that on BlakAdder, even mafia would be happy to join in lynching a scumbuddy.

I also notice that 2 of my suspects - Empking and EA - can be linked to BlakAdder. Empking for his insistence in voting CKD over BlakAdder day 2. EA for accusing CKD of chainsawing when he voted BlakAdder and not Tajo day 1. Note that CKD being involved in both these cases is probably coincidence IMO. I'm not as sure as Tar looks to be about CKD being town. However, CKD is definitely not the best choice for a vote at this point.

[Sierra]

It's been a few days since we last heard from BlakAdder. When he shows up again, I would like to hear from him who he thinks is most suspicious at the moment. Up until now, the only accusation I've seen him make was suggesting there might be a link between Tajo and Stef, which we've seen was false. I want to hear more of his thoughts on the game, instead of only defending himself.

[Sierra]

4 kills.. 0_0

armlx's theory on the setup sounds plausible enough. I'll have time to reread Wednesday, so you'll hear more from me then.

[Sierra]

set up would be 14/4/4/1/1+(cult)

That would not balance CKD. Too much night related variance.

How would 14/4/4/1/1+(cult) give more variance than 16/3/3/1/1+(cult) ? It's the same amount of nightkills, right?

Regardless of the setup, I think we ought to focus on finding more members of the Greek mafia more than on finding a possibly remaining Japanese mafia, simply because the Greek mafia poses more of a threat.

Electra only had three posts of substance (posted immediately after eachother). I'll quote them here so people don't need to look back too far:

This is just the first part of one post, I have to go now, but if I don't post it, I will lose it.

armlx - attacks Stef for WIFOM, votes stef after ooba has meta, pursues Stef for a little bit, but then votes P-T after a while; scummyrelation level: low
blakadder - random votes Stef(!!scum partner random vote?), finds P-T and Stef suspicious, the infamous "Since your scumminess relies on the assumption that you and tajo are partners, you'll be partially cleared if tajo flips town. " which I don't find to be much of a read unless BlakAdder is newbie scum. (is he?) a lot of stuff about how he wasn't defending Stef. scummyrelation level: midhigh
CKD - calls stef out for too much random voting (cautioning partner?), pursues BlakAdder a lot, scummyrelation level: medium
Cybele - votes blakadder for seeming like stef's scumbuddy, but never addresses stef? level: midhigh
Empking - likes the pt bandwagon more, does not address stef. a bit too obvious for a scumbuddy? level: midlow
Erratus - does not address stef, level: medium
Ghostwriter - does not address stef or post, level:medium
Haschel - does not find stef suspicious due to small sample size, level: medium
Jebus - does not address stef, level: medium
Ku_F - random votes stef(!!) is also random voted by stef (!!), does not address stef otherwise. level:midhigh
massive - does not address stef, level: medium
ooba - pursues stef a lot, uses meta against him, etc. shifts to pt later, but still, level: low
Rush - does not address stef, level: medium
sekinj - defends stef a little bit, attacks PT, doesn't really mean much, although the amount of defense is the amount that scum would do. level: medium
Seraphim - does not address stef, level: medium
Shadowgirl - does not address stef, level: medium
Sierra - says that pressure on stef is good but does not go any further, asks stef about his experience, is pressured about his semi-support of the wagon, level: medium
skitzer - tells stef that people on the site are commonly insulted and that he should adapt, level: medium
Tarhalinder - votes stef because he has a problem with questions? (why would he do this?) jumps to Sierra because of his defense-ish of stef, but then stops caring about stef very soon after, lists stef with pt and sierra (rule of three?), level: midhigh

@ curiouskarma dog - This isn't a list of who I find scummiest given all factors, it's a list of people in their likeliness of being scumpartners with Stef.

Also, I knew ooba was dead, but I forgot ;O But I ranked him as low, and we know that he wasn't a scumpartner

@ Ku_F - If people didn't address Stef and didn't give any other tells, then I can only rank them as medium. Also, defending Stef doesn't necessarily mean anything, because a mistaken townie is just as likely as scum to defend (since scum are sometimes more reluctant to defend in case they can be associated). It's mainly in the way Stef was defended, if it seems more like a serious defense, I'm more likely to believe it's town.

Also I missed that SGirl random voted stef, but it's not really enough to go off of considering she didn't address stef again.

Here is the rest of the post:

TheSweatpantsNinja - did not address Stef the day before, but doesn't like BlakAdder today, level: medium
Stef: addresses a few people, doesn't really give any tells as far as I can see, except he says, "Empking, Elektra, BlakAdder, Jebus, Rush: More activity and/or content from you guys! What do you think about the latest developments in the game? What are your 3 top suspects and why? " so obviously one of these five is scum (not me :p)

So anyway, ultimately, it does seem like BlakAdder is a good choice, however, it almost seems too obvious? Cybele's one move is very suspicious to me, but since he didn't do anything else, I can't say for sure. Ku_F's response is kind of weird, it seems almost like fake-indignant. Not sure if the double random vote is less or more suspicious than a single random vote. I also find Ku_F's posting to be Mafia-ish aside from interactions with Stef, no examples, just a general read. Tarhalinder's actions are very very interesting, and could definitely be a scumbuddy, but aside from stuff relating to Stef, I don't find his actions too scummy. Thoughts on these four?

Electra, now I'm confused.
I'm midhigh as I random voted Stef and Stef me. In your next post, you say that you don't know if the double random vote is less or more suspicious than a single random vote. But in that same post you say that eventhough SG random voted Stef, it doesn't change her level as she doesn't adress Stef afterwards. Then tell me why I'm midhigh and SG medium.

Also you say that one of the following five is scum: Empking, Electra, BA, Jebus and Rush.
Of those players, BA is the only one who has a midhigh level. Then why aren't you voting him? You're only excuse is that it seems to obvious.
However, we don't know what the scum could have planned for this day to try and save Stef (and BA if he's scum) as Stef was killed last night. Their whole plan was suddenly destroyed.

Also what does BA have to do with the connection of each player with Stef (see TSN)?

I guess the main difference is that there was the double random vote, but you didn't address Stef otherwise, so it seems extremely coincidental. On the other hand, Shadowgirl single random voted Stef, but didn't address stef, but that's fairly common if it was truely a random vote. My commont on the one vs. two votes is sort of like asking if other people think it's actually more suspicious, or does the lack of reason for scum to so obviously vote each other override it?

As for voting, I'm not ready yet. xD Does no one think this BlakAdder thing is too obvious? After all, even though Stefdeath was a surprise, they would have had to know that Stef would still be under suspicion today and possibly be lynched? Which would have the same effect on BlakAdder. Does that make sense?

She looks to be getting ready to see BlakAdder lynched, but saying "I told you it was too obvious" the next day. While BlakAdder could still be that possible last Japanese mafia, judging by Electra's posts, he's not part of the Greek mafia so should not be the lynch for today.

Other people she classifies as 'midhigh' are Cybele, Ku_F, and Tarhalinder. Even though the possibility of bussing exists, I think it's more likely Cybele and Ku_F are not Japanese mafia. The fact that she put armlx down as 'low' is a null-tell as far as I'm concerned.


Electra's posts are not linking to a possible scum-buddy. It might be good to look back at the suspicions of other players that were killed last night. What I get from the scene is that Electra was killed by GhostWriter (Jap mafia). Unfortunately, I can't tell who else is responsible for which other kills. It would help if we figured this out. If we can figure out which kills belong to the Greek mafia, we might be able to reason about why they killed a certain player (possibly getting too close to the truth?). Same for the SK.

There seems to be some consistency in the way people are killed.

15- Stef - japanese mafia member -

killed

on Night 1
16- ooba - cult leader -

murdered

on Night 1

09- Electra - greek mafia member -

assassinated

on Night 2
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member -

killed

on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member -

murdered

on Night 2
21- Tarhalindur - tracker -

slain

on Night 2

The Night 2 'murder' is colored red in post 1, but I gave it purple here to match the Night 1 'murder'. Obviously, the Japanese mafia 'assassinate'. If we assume the vig didn't kill Night 1, the vig 'slays' his targets and was the one who killed Tarhalindur. That leaves the Greek mafia and the SK 'killing' and 'murdering', but which does what exactly is still unclear. I first thought Stef was killed by a vig, but knowing this it was probably the SK. That would mean the Greek mafia is responsible for ooba's and sekinj's death. I will be looking at who ooba and sekinj were accusing later.

[Sierra]

Where is everyone else? Since my last post, only armlx, CKD and massive have posted.

[Sierra]

you are talking about two different things...Sierra is talking about how people were killed (assassinated, murdered, killed)...these ARE clues as to who is killing who..

you are taking something said in flavor (which DR has said does not tell us anything)...

Err, I was actually using the flavour too, to determine that Electra was killed by Ghostwriter. I know mods generally don't give out information like that in scenes, but they certainly don't lie about it, do they? Look at these fragments from the scene:

The joy of a tracker is to follow a player who performs a kill, Tarhalindur was very excited antecipating the revealing of his results.

GhostWriter was back in the hall, music is loud and most people are dancing.
He spots his buddie and nods. It's their code for "work done, Electra dead".

Either the mod is giving very clear hints about the night-actions in the scene, or he's actually

misleading

the players about the night-actions in the scene. The second would be bastard-modding, so I'm believing the first is true.

Massive argument is still not necessarily valid though, because he's presuming to be able to guess who Tar decided to track. I'll be looking back at Tar's posts later to see where Massive got this idea, but it will remain an educated guess at best.

[Sierra]

First page and a half contain a bandwagon on me. While it may be partly random, I still think it's noteworthy enough to give the five an FoS. GhostWriter, armlx, Tarhalindur , Erratus Apathos, and ooba. Three of them are dead, two of them were mafia/cult. So there's a moderate possibility that Erratus and armlx are scum.

FoS: Erratus, armlx

I don't get this part. How does the fact that GW (mafia) and ooba (cult) (and Tar (town)) were voting you imply that armlx and EA are scummy for voting you too? Especially with the game still early in the random voting stage at that point, this argument holds no water. It looks more like an OMGUS argument to me.

Your FoS on curiouskarmadog and hascow for voting Haschel Cedricson is also based on random votes. I don't see how you think that's noteworthy.


How are the replacements doing with their catching-up?

[Sierra]

Sierra has been quiet recently which I find very interesting.

I'm kinda waiting for the mod to respond to CKD's question.

MOD NOTE:

The flavor in this post is just a humorous summary of the conversations during the game. No alignement and no portion of the setup is revealed there.

MOD, I know that every game I have ever been in that you modded (this would be the third) you have put this disclaimer (or something like it) on your every scene that you post...however, on yesterday's scene you did not.

can you please verify that this is indeed true for this scene? Because I am going on the basis of other games you have modded, but if you cant verify this, it changes things for this game

[Sierra]

Mod:

No comment on last night's flavour? Even saying "no comment" would be something.

eh,

vote massive

again, I feel his case returning, and

FoS: ShadowGirl

because it's mainly parts other than the dice roll.

This post seems very opportunistic to me. You're piling pressure on the two people who have been getting most attention last page, with only a "what they said"-like explanation to excuse the vote and fos.

I'm not that suspicious of SG and Massive myself. I was much more interested in the case against Sera - now gorckat - myself, but with these discussions about SG and Massive, people seem to have forgotten about him.

Gorckat, what did you get from your reread? All you posted was

Not keen on Shadowgirl. Hard to say why. Just gut over some of the Sera exchanges.

and that's not much really.

[Sierra]

I believe Seraphim/gorckat is a good candidate for Tar's final night choice. He publicly decried Seraphim/gorckat as scum and it seems logical that he'd verify it. Do you disagree?

Although there is a good possibility Tar targeted Sera, this is guesswork on your part. Tar might have targeted the person he was most suspicious of, or he might not have. There is no way to be sure who Tar would target, unless you could read his mind - which nobody can.

Still I agree that gorckat deserves more attention. Just not because of the tracking/flavour argument, but because Sera was scummy as hell before he was replaced. In a game I played recently, one of the scum admitted to have asked for replacement when he got caught in a tight position, not because he really needed replacement but because he figured a replacement might be the only thing to save him from a lynch. It worked. Thanks to that game, I'm now a bit more wary of people replacing in for someone who was especially scummy.

[Sierra]

on a side note: this is the least active I have ever seen gorkat...I dont think it means anything, but would like an explanation.

I'm well aware of this. I've never been this busy at work, which is where I do ~50% of my posting. Because I've been working so many weekends and evenings, it's cut into my home posting as well (not as many nights up until midnight.)

I am coming in to work tomorrow, but in a primarily "sit on my ass and make sure the building doesn't fall down" capacity, so I commit to give you folks some more meat to chew on.

I have been reading up on things to stay current, so its just a matter of going back to read up on what some people have referred/pointed to, and justifying my gut feelings and vote.

I believe "tomorrow" was two days ago.

[Sierra]

Vote gorckat

. I don't believe the meat he promises will arrive before the deadline; he's just stalling.

Arg. Deadline is in a week, apparently.

@SG: who do you think is scum, and why?

[Sierra]

The list is people who haven't posted for more than a week is saddening:

01- skitzer
02- springlullaby (Haschel Cedricson)
03- gorckat (Seraphim)
05- Cybele
06- Erratus Apathos
08- Ku_F
14- Jebus
20- Rush

It would be nice if Bobo came over for another visit. It would be even nicer if these people would pay more attention to the game without a clown having to threaten them.

With the deadline only 3 days away, it would be interesting to look at the votecount. I hope no one minds that because of lack of a recent vote count, I checked the votes myself:

Sierra's Votecount

(upto post 802)

massive

(4): gorckat, skitzer, Jebus, Rush

ShadowGirl

(3): hasdgfas, armlx, massive

gorckat

(2): Sierra, BlakAdder

BlakAdder

(1): farside22

Rush

(1): Erratus Apathos

armlx

(1): springlullaby

Not voting

(5): Cybele, Ku_F, ShadowGirl, curiouskarmadog
Deadline is on

November 27

Needed for a lynch: 9 votes
If by deadline no one has 9 votes the player with more votes is lynched
If two players share the top score of votes lynch is decided by

duel

If nothing changes, massive would be lynched. I would prefer if it were gorckat in his place, but I don't think that's going to happen in only 3 days. Massive should consider claiming.

[Sierra]

Sierra, why is Gorckat's behavior scummy?

Since he replaced in, he hasn't shared any of his insights of this game, except saying that he thinks massive and SG are scummy without much of an explanation. He's been promising it will come, but it looks like he was just stalling until deadline.

An even more important reason why Gorckat is scum is because of the circumstances in which he replaced Seraphim. Seraphim had gotten himself into a lot of trouble day 2, even saying this in the post where he hammered Empking:

Fine. You know what? You can lynch me next round; I don't care.

Seraphim was expecting a lot of heat day 3. Now look at when he got replaced. His last post was on October 29th:

Sorry. Almost forgot about this game.

I think I should address some points.

First, my bad. Got this confused with another game. Next, I'm getting in my stride here. Frankly, I think this game hasn't been going very good for me. I'm aiming for a reread when I have time.

Next, it was just a guess. I thought it was very clear that there was two families by the fact that one family was labeled. This turned out to be very correct. I'll read the thread, definitely, and try to glean some new insights.

He's not indicating he wants to be replaced at all. Only 4 days later, on November 2nd, the mod posts:

I will have to relace Sweatpantsninja, Haschel and Seraphin...for now

Why replace Seraphim? If you check Sera's posts, you will find that he was actually posting very actively in the period in between his last post and the post where the mod announced he would be replaced, so it can't be the case Seraphim didn't pick up a prod. The only explanation is that Sera privately asked for replacement. But why? He was posting actively and even signed up for a new game on November 1st. He was obviously not short on time. I'll show you why: just look at Mafia 80: Nice Shot! Mafia. In that game, BM asked for replacement in the last day of the game. Korts replaced him and won the game for scum. Read why BM said he asked for replacement after the game ended:

Korts....you just did.... F***ING AWESOME! Surprised

I just completely screwed up in this game, and knew that we needed a fresh face in order to give us a shot. But tbh, i didnt really expect it would make much difference. You did far more than i could have anticipated. Well done! Very Happy

BM

I'm seeing this happening all over again in this game.

[Sierra]

I have limited time to devote to mafia right now and for the next week and will probably give my attention to games I'm more engaged in. If that is unsatisfactory, I should be replaced.

Then why did you replace in?

I would like to see the deadline extended, too. Does this count as my vote or do we have to PM you, Claus?

[Sierra]

Sorry for my absence past week, real life became somewhat hectic. I was hoping to be able to show more people how awfully scummy Gorkat/Seraphim's actions were, but now that he's asked for replacement, he looks to be getting off the hook today.

I'll be content with a lurker-lynch today. I don't see how Skitzer's one post shortly after CKD mentioned him makes him an 'active lurker' though. Who is to say he wasn't accidentally online at that very moment and happened to post just after CKD. The fact that he said he needed to read up supports the theory that he hasn't been keeping up at all. Still, I don't think he's added much more than rush to this game, so I would be as fine with Skitzer being lynched as I would with rush or cybele.

[Sierra]

Between Rush, Massive and Skitzer, I'm going to:

Unvote, vote Rush.

If I counted correctly, that puts all 3 of them at 4 votes. Unless everyone is very anxious to see how this 'duel' mechanism works, someone else should follow my example and vote Rush before the deadline.

Between the 3 of them, Massive is by far the worst lynch. Two of the people voting him are Rush and Skitzer, who are lynch-candidates themselves. Another is Gorkat. Do I need to say more?

Both Skitzer and Rush are fair choices, but there is at least some hope that Skitzer will surprise us with good and helpful content. With Rush on the other hand, the chances of him contributing something to the game in the future is practically zero. If we don't lynch him now, we'll only have to do it later. (not accounting for a possible vig kill of course)

[Sierra]

Not much time to post, because I'm leaving on a weekend trip. I won't be back until Monday.

Niv, you're replacing a person who I think was definitely scum. I'm looking forward to hearing from you.

[Sierra]

That was a very confusing read, thanks to Jebus faking results. Still, with EA confirming having killed CKD, I believe he's really a watcher.

I agree with others saying that it might be useful to figure out which killing method belongs to which faction. I tried doing that the previous day already, but with the information night 3 gave us I'm going to have to review that attempt.

killed

15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
20- Rush - vanilla townie - killed on Night 3

murdered

16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2
07- curiouskarmadog - vanilla townie - murdered on Night 3

assassinated

09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2
04- armlx - vanilla townie - assassinated on Night 3

slain

21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja) - roleblocker - slain on Night 3

I previously assumed that a vig wouldn't kill night 1, but the deaths of Stef, GW and Rush really look to be the work of a vig. There is always the chance that it's an SK (or even Greek mafia) trying to pass as a vig, but I'm putting my money on it really being a vig.

EA murdered ooba, sekinj and CDK. He claims to be vig. I find that very hard to believe. The reasons he gives for targeting the three of them all come down to "I didn't agree with them" in some way. When asked why he didn't vote for a more obvious choice like Rush or massive last night he answers:

I of course would have shot either Rush or massive if they weren't in the duel, making killing them a potential waste.

From what I understood, he had his chance to send in your target

after

the duel took place. His excuse is void.
I think EA is either SK or Greek mafia.

I don't think the 'assassinated' or the 'slain' kills were done by a vig. The only way I could see the 'assassinated' kills done by a vig, would be if the vig was springlullaby, because she was the only one expression any serious suspicion on armlx. Electra could have been killed by a vig. These kills could just have well been done by an SK or Japanese mafia though. The 'slain' kills could have been done by anyone but a vig. Tar and hasdgfas were both strong town-players in my eyes, so I see no reason why a vig would target them.

Speaking of springlullaby, why hasn't she been replaced? Her last post was Nov 27th:

I have limited time to devote to mafia right now and for the next week and will probably give my attention to games I'm more engaged in. If that is unsatisfactory, I should be replaced.

It is unsatisfactory. She should be replaced.

Mod

, any word on this?

In conclusion, lynching EA will result in the death of a SK or Greek Mafia for 90% sure. This is obviously the most rational action to take.

Vote EA.

Hey wait... Are people voting Niv? Are people really finally voting Niv, prev. Gorckat, prev. Seph, aka. Mr "OMG I'm busted - I'd better replace out"?!
THANK YOU!

Unvote. Vote Niv.

[Sierra]

It's never a good idea to hammer before getting a claim, so don't.

I don't like how farside practically ignores Niv by saying "I have no case on Niv myself". It looks to me like he's trying to divert attention away from Niv by first trying to push a wagon on EA, and when that fails he resorts to attacking BA. Possible scum-buddy behaviour there.

[Sierra]

Niv flaked in all his games in the week since his last post here. His posts and inactivity are a null tell for me and I'd like to hear what the fonz has to say about the game, if he's read everything yet since he's been in line to replace in.

When The Fonz gets here, I'm expecting nothing less than a roleclaim from him.

[Sierra]

Still I agree that gorckat deserves more attention. Just not because of the tracking/flavour argument, but because Sera was scummy as hell before he was replaced. In a game I played recently, one of the scum admitted to have asked for replacement when he got caught in a tight position, not because he really needed replacement but because he figured a replacement might be the only thing to save him from a lynch. It worked. Thanks to that game, I'm now a bit more wary of people replacing in for someone who was especially scummy.

Except that he wasn't that scummy, and certainly wasn't the next in line to lynch.

Seraphim seems to have thought differently about that, judging by his hammering post:

Fine. You know what? You can lynch me next round; I don't care. He could be Jester; I don't care. I'll deal with that next day. For now, I think I speak for the majority when I say

Vote: Empking

Tar, just remember, this was your idea. If he isn't a jester, he's definitely scum. If he turns up town, I guess the joke's on me, then.

Sierra, sorry, but no dice. There are only three people voting me. One of whom at least I think is scum. The case on my role, as far as I can see, is lurking plus the Jester thing. The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell, and I'm invalidating any lurker case here and now by contributing lots. (Plus, you can't really make a case on my role for lurking which is distinct from the case on, say, Spring. Which is not to say that lurking is OK, but that lurkerlynching me seems stupid). That leaves you with basically nothing.

As much as I appreciate the effort you are putting in, it's going a bit too far to say this clears you of all cases stated against your predecessors. LlamaFluff - even if you think he's scum - makes some valid points against you (against Sera acually) that you haven't answered to yet.

[Sierra]

Damn you The Fonz. I was fully convinced that seph/niv/you was scum, but after reading over post 1012 a couple of times I can only conclude that you're right and most of the earlier accusations against you were flawed. You realize of course that if you're scum and end up winning this game, I will never ever trust a replacement again and I'll be pre-emptively voting every replacement in future games, only saying "blame The Fonz".

Unvote.

I will respond to this, because you asked:

Sierra: posting his hammer post, and saying 'Well, he did think he was next in line' doesn't add anything. It doesn't support your argument. Please address my argument: namely, that it is blatantly obvious that Seph is only distancing himself from the hammer IN THE SCENARIO WHERE EMP COMES UP JESTER.

I agree with your argument about Seph distancing himself from the hammer. The reason I quoted his hammer post is because he ends that post saying "If he turns up town, I guess the joke's on me, then." This sounds to me like he was expecting to get lynched the next day if Emp turned up town, which supports my argument about him replacing out to escape the heat.


I still believe EA is SK or Greek (see my post 954 for reasoning), but I guess I'm ok with letting the vig handle him. I'm not sure yet who to vote at this point. I have a town-read on massive and I was fairly positive about LF too, although I must admit that was partly because he agreed with me earlier on The Fonz being scum. I'll have to reread the last few pages keeping in mind that The Fonz is not necessarily scum. I don't have the time for that right now, so I'll get back to you on that this weekend.

[Sierra]

I am believing Llama's claim. I don't see mafia faking psychologist, because if he accidentally clear the SK, there's a good chance the SK will kill him the next night. There is a small chance Llama is the SK himself, but if we get a SK claim today we won't have to worry about that.

On that note: I am not the SK.

I think the earlier pressure on SG to get her to post was well-deserved and it proved effective. I don't see why The Fonz decided to vote her after her post and still has it out for her, when there is also someone called BlakAdder around. I would like BA to tell us whether he is the SK or not.

[Sierra]

I am not the SK.

Vote BlakAdder

, because he's definitely not town either. My bet is on BA being Jap mafia, because of his interactions with Stef and Tajo on day 1.

I know there are people who believe believe BA is really a vanilla townie because he reacted 'genuinely' to Jebus's gambit, but that's a terrible argument. As pointed out before, if BA didn't kill GW himself, then it would've been easy to figure out Jebus was lying. A vanilla townie and a mafia would react in exactly the same way if they knew Jebus was lying.

[Sierra]

I'm fine with a mass-claim. A quick warning: I don't have a lot of time on my hands until after the weekend, so I won't have a chance to read back on farside/SL links. I'll be sure to check in at least once a day though, to see if it's my turn to claim.

[Sierra]

Checking in before going to bed, and I see it's my turn already.

I'm a vanilla townie.

More input from me coming after the weekend.

[Sierra]

Nice fakeclaim Llama, congratz on winning this after replacing in and surviving without scumbuddies for so long.

Here's our QT, it's not nearly as interesting as Llama's notes though.
http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/NVMqBM5jgtAD

By the way, I didn't mean to lurk through this last day like this, I really was busy last week and ready to post today. I don't think I would've been able to come up with any plan to save myself though. I couldn't even think of any good fakeclaims at the time of the mass-claim.

Thank you for taking over the modding so well, Claus! This was my first large game and I really enjoyed it! I'm planning to take a break from mafia and this was an excellent game to end it with.