Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[The Fonz]

429: Good contradiction-based scumhunting by Ku_F.

Jebus' 434 doesn't advance the game at all.

Haha, Friend of Scum in 436.

You don't think quicklynching a claimed Doc is scummy?

Not when he's obviously lying. Lest we forget, he also claimed townie.

Unvote, Vote: Empking

As if the backtracking isn't enough, his stream of insults reminds me of Mini 617, where kuribo caught me like page 2 and I,

bereft of alternatives, RELEASED THE FUCKING FURY. Didn't work then, won't work now.

Heh, unleashing the fury is not a scumtell. (I pretty much only do it if someone is genuinely misrepresenting me). That

said, the lie was worth voting.

476: HEADDESK. Though actually a towntell on me. (If you wish to dispute that town are more likely to suggest another town

player is a jester, go ahead).

480: BA 'ICs' but doesn't really add anything.

I've said it once, I'll say it again: I strongly suggest you claim. I plan on voting you very soon,

because the lack of a claim suggests, to me, that you do not have a pro-town role.

OH, COME ON.

More obvscum posts from the confirmed scum. Reticence to claim is not a scumtell, precisely the opposite.

Well, awesome night for the town. Going to go back and reread the dead players. Also, I would believe the

Japanese Mafia is gone, but playstyle should not be altered either way. We'll see whether or not they're still alive

tonight.

Well, kinda should be: the Greeks are the obvious priority here.

@sekinj's 'bah' post - This means there'r more Yakuza. Probably one more left to wipe off the faction.

This is a good catch.

farside replaces in and spots the obvious.

skitzer's 575 raises a good point: Massive has been uberlurky, can't remember a single thing he's done.

And 581, amusingly, looks like a fairly good facsimile of a whiney scum post. You can't tell that the two players lynched were lynched because they were caught in lies? Seriously?


OTOH, 591 is good. If BA is Jap, he'll be the last one, and if he's not Jap, then most of the case against him goes away, because it's mainly associative tells. Apart from the bit at the bottom... please explain why it would benefit a scum to speculate that a townie might be Jeter?

That would not balance CKD. Too much night related variance.

Agreed... and if you have a cult, you can't really have 9 scum to 14 town. A cult needs townies to recruit. It is possible sekinj was just screwing with us, of course.

How would 14/4/4/1/1+(cult) give more variance than 16/3/3/1/1+(cult) ? It's the same amount of nightkills, right?

Fewer town. More scum. Fewer lynches, so town more dependent on night game in order to be balanced.

Re: 599, there is no particular reason to think 'assassinated' refers to the Japanese mafia.

Yeah, Hascow! Readable players are always good.

611: Such speculation ill-befits you, massive. Just a TERRIBLE argument, almost voteworthy alone.

so your versus of grandpa scum hunting is voting based on flavor?

QFT.

But isn't flavour not supposed to reveal information the players don't know?

Precisely.

691: Agreed.

NOTE:

SG has not done a dice vote in any other game on MS. I find that very interesting.

This IS interesting. In so far as people tend to always do it, or never do it.

713: Meh, even a good vote from massive comes with a crap reason attached.

I don't think the smiley was the reason that definitively made him scum.

I like the dice command. That's why I used it.

Then why is this the first time? And what makes you 'like' it?

732: This is a good defence of the above.

armlx's 743 gives me VERY good vibes. I mean, the original argument wasn't very good, but that feels like an impossible bar to set. (I also feel that crediting armlx with 'good scumhunting skills' may be stretching it. IIRC, he's good at sounding reasonable, but merely decent at scumhunting).

unvote, vote ShadowGirl

Her helpful vote counts pre-both-lynches coupled with her joy of the previous night's events are a desperate attempt to appear townie. I don't believe a townie needs to do that.

Voting for the next highest vote getter when you are in the suspicion spotlight = mafia to me.

vote massive

That's all you have to say?

It was a good point. He didn't need to write a wall of text explaining it. That was Rush' best post to date. Jumping from someone you've been attacking to someone who happens to be second to you in terms of wagon size is scummy. Minus points for arm.

Still I agree that gorckat deserves more attention. Just not because of the tracking/flavour argument, but because Sera was scummy as hell before he was replaced. In a game I played recently, one of the scum admitted to have asked for replacement when he got caught in a tight position, not because he really needed replacement but because he figured a replacement might be the only thing to save him from a lynch. It worked. Thanks to that game, I'm now a bit more wary of people replacing in for someone who was especially scummy.

Except that he wasn't that scummy, and certainly wasn't the next in line to lynch.

EA's 764 looks opportunistic. I really don't understand how the first real rush wagon springs up in response to his best post.

SG defends, rather than doing something about, her active lurking.

How many more times does Rush need to jump on a bandwagon without scumhunting and then intentionally lurk to avoid being questioned about it before we realize he's not just dead weight, he's dead scum weight?

This bothers me, since i'm just seeing 'dumb newbie.' Of course, hindsight is wonderful.

Remember this when I get lynched as townie.

GRRRRR, unnecessary townie claim.

Also, whiny scum-a-like.

<3 CKD 839.

Between the 3 of them, Massive is by far the worst lynch. Two of the people voting him are Rush and Skitzer, who are lynch-candidates themselves. Another is Gorkat. Do I need to say more?

Noticing this. Also, how skitzer has suddenly become a candidate after people ignoring him for several pages.


893:

FOS Farside22

for the obvious craplogic vote. He clearly meant 'killing groups' and you shouldn't be voting people over obvious typos.

Oh seriously, obviously I meant "all 4 killing groups." If you really think I'm intimating that there are 4 mafia groups, you are using blatant opportunism and have quickly risen in my "likely to also be scum" list.

This is a scum reaction.

Vote: massive

No, it is not, it's the obvious one.

898: BlakAdder still scummy as F***.

899: Llama's pick of Niv (me) even ignoring the obvious OMGUS reaction, is horrible. The claim that Seraph appears to have inside information is laughable. I'd love an explanation of why seraph is 'likely greek mafia' and not pulled out of your ass. But then, I think you're greek scum, as we'll come to soon.

Vote BlakAdder

Finals week so im a little busy. The Japanese mafia is still killing, therefore they arent all dead. I would much rather get rid of the end of the first faction today so we only have two anti-town groups left.

And this fits that hypothesis perfectly.

I wasn't keeping track of who might be in which mafia. I'm not picky at the moment.

This is hella scummy. Town needs to think what they're accusing people of being.

908: Let us see reactions to this one.

BlakAdder's claim, combined with Jebus', indicates that one or other HAS to be lying scum. EA may yet claim vig. We'll see.

Also, how can you be so sure that Jebus is not lying? And how did you come to the conclusion that there must be a Mafia Doctor if he is lying? I smell scum slip.

There is no reason for Jebus to be lying regardless of alignment. As SK or a Jap member he just nuked his chance at winning unless he picked a member from both other factions correctly. I brought up mafia doctor to show how over the top stupid calling Jebus lying scum is, since it is the only way that this is a good idea.

A mafia doctor would not affect anything. Those players ACTUALLY died, and Jebus is claiming to have seen the killers. Either he is truthful in both respects, or lying scum. Those are the only options.

My other accusation was that if I had claimed vig, you still would have said I was confirmed scum.
I'm not a vig, but I still know he's lying, because I'm a vanilla.

Not true- no-one would assume someone who'd NKed scum to be scum.

EA is not Jap. Could well be Greek.

927 makes sense.

934: Grrr. I need to think about whether to apply LAL here. Probably not, though what the hell, if BA was a different PR?

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

SK is certainly possible, but that means there's a real vig to take him out.

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

But he hasn't been counterclaimed. Though, I'm not sure the real vig would/should want to claim, anyway.

Vigs should never counterclaim. Just shoot the faker.

If EA is the SK, I would actually prefer a vig claim today, since it does eliminate one anti-town role in its entirety. This would mean only two anti-town kills to deal with per night. If the vig waits for the night to kill EA, there is still a shot going out from him.

This is horrendously antitown.

unvote
vote niv

Since niv is scum for sure. /quote]

You haven't provided anything like the case needed to make that statement. Scum.

The last page doesn't really add anything, except for: too many people are not reading the thread.

Although:

Niv is now at L-1 (three votes and his self vote), and I implore that no one hammer him until he's posted/claimed.

More 'looking helpful' from SG.

unvote

Sierra, sorry, but no dice. There are only three people voting me. One of whom at least I think is scum. The case on my role, as far as I can see, is lurking plus the Jester thing. The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell, and I'm invalidating any lurker case here and now by contributing lots. (Plus, you can't really make a case on my role for lurking which is distinct from the case on, say, Spring. Which is not to say that lurking is OK, but that lurkerlynching me seems stupid). That leaves you with basically nothing.

Vote: Llamafluff

Reasons, in chronological order:

1) Cybele's weirdness with regard to her random vote. YES, it is still a valid tell.
2) Being the one living player clearly tied to the dead greek mafiate: see above, regarding to Electra's behaviour re: EA tunnelling on Cybele.
3) Insistence on Jap mafia being the priority, even when Greeks could win overnight.
4) Trying to get a vig to out itself needlessly. (Indicates that EA is SK or genuine rather than Greek if Llama is scum).
5) Calling Niv (me) certain scum, without a single good argument for the proposition to his name.

[Jahudo]

I need to look over some of the stuff you're saying about Llamafluff, but I do like your effort to bring in as much information as possible to help revitalize this town.

Haha, Friend of Scum in 436.

This does seem like an important post by sekinj. She (jap scum) FoS Electra (greek scum) for defending BA (who we think is jap scum) on the grounds that him being jap scum is too obvious. I actually like the idea that Jap would say this. It’s distancing sekinj and BA while suspecting someone who’s linking BA to Japs.

611: Such speculation ill-befits you, massive. Just a TERRIBLE argument, almost voteworthy alone.

Agreed. Drawing conclusions from flavor looks worse when there’s a vote in the same post.

713: Meh, even a good vote from massive comes with a crap reason attached.

What reason are you referring to?

898: BlakAdder still scummy as F***.

Agreed.

899: Llama's pick of Niv (me) even ignoring the obvious OMGUS reaction, is horrible. The claim that Seraph appears to have inside information is laughable.

Llama this could use clarification. When I read “Inside information” I thought you were talking about Seph calling the lynch Tar’s idea and that if Emp turned up town then the joke would be on Seph.

934: Grrr. I need to think about whether to apply LAL here. Probably not, though what the hell, if BA was a different PR?

And it wasn’t well thought out because it might have gotten the real killer (if they’re pro-town) to counter claim.

Vigs should never counterclaim. Just shoot the faker.

That sounds like the best plan but SK’s are sometimes NK immune right? Is that a varient that is not typical for large normal game roles?

The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell

I didn’t mine the Jester theory so much but I did have a problem with him trying to disown himself from the hammer by saying it’s Tar’s idea.

[farside22]

That sounds like the best plan but SK’s are sometimes NK immune right? Is that a varient that is not typical for large normal game roles?

This is what I thought too. I don't want to out guess the mod but with 3 kills going on not including the SK I can't imagine a SK not NK immune.

[The Fonz]

713: Meh, even a good vote from massive comes with a crap reason attached.

What reason are you referring to?

This.

Her helpful vote counts pre-both-lynches coupled with her joy of the previous night's events are a desperate attempt to appear townie. I don't believe a townie needs to do that.

Some people are just helpful. That she isn't saying owt of substance is a far more pressing concern.

Vigs should never counterclaim. Just shoot the faker.

That sounds like the best plan but SK’s are sometimes NK immune right? Is that a varient that is not typical for large normal game roles?

Well, NK-immune is significantly less common in setups like this. Largely because there's something a bit unbalanced about a role which cannot commit associative tells, OR be killed at night. In any case, it's something to worry about if he's still alive and the mafia dead later.

The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell

I didn’t mine the Jester theory so much but I did have a problem with him trying to disown himself from the hammer by saying it’s Tar’s idea.[/quote]

He was disowning it, but in the sense of 'Well, I told you he looked like a Jester, don't blame me if he is.' He wasn't trying to avoid blame if Emp came up town; in fact, Seraphim explicitly denies the possibility:

If he isn't a jester, he's definitely scum.

[ShadowGirl]

@The dice thing: I just like the command ever since I was playing mish mash games with it. [Such as Roll a dice or Yahtzee.]

[ShadowGirl]

Slow posting 'til Christmas.

[Jahudo]

Well, NK-immune is significantly less common in setups like this. Largely because there's something a bit unbalanced about a role which cannot commit associative tells, OR be killed at night.

What do you mean by "setups like this". I understand what you mean about already not having associative tells is like a power.

He was disowning it, but in the sense of 'Well, I told you he looked like a Jester, don't blame me if he is.' He wasn't trying to avoid blame if Emp came up town; in fact, Seraphim explicitly denies the possibility:

If he isn't a jester, he's definitely scum.

Ok. That quote about jester or definite scum does seem to disown from a jester reveal more than a town one.

[LlamaFluff]

1) Cybele's weirdness with regard to her random vote. YES, it is still a valid tell.
2) Being the one living player clearly tied to the dead greek mafiate: see above, regarding to Electra's behaviour re: EA tunnelling on Cybele.
3) Insistence on Jap mafia being the priority, even when Greeks could win overnight.
4) Trying to get a vig to out itself needlessly. (Indicates that EA is SK or genuine rather than Greek if Llama is scum).
5) Calling Niv (me) certain scum, without a single good argument for the proposition to his name.

Just got done with a very long drive so making a brief post, more tomorrow.

I cant really refute 1 or 2 since that wasnt me, but given my role and what i thave figured out, I know I am town and am trying to piece together a few more things.

3) Swing and a miss here. We have 11 alive, and I am making a 4-4-1-1 assumption for killing roles, or a 3-1-1-1 alive. If we eliminate one of the 1s, there are only three kills and the game cant end given that three greeks need four non-greek kills to win. Jap lynch eliminates today being a possible lylo.

4) I dont want what I am thinking to be a wash here, and if EA is the vig what I am working on will take much longer to actually figure out, and possibly cause quite a bit of confusion. There is a good reason for me to want to know if EA is lying about being the vig, since there are a few people who are obviously not the SK already. It being another 1 faction, eliminating it would prevent lylo

5) I put some stuff up on Seph a while and will go through again later. There just seem to be multiple instances where he ended up with an idea about the setup of the game before it became part of the scene. You fit as greek to me though, and eliminating a greek does take away from the lylo threat unless its a five player scumteam.

[Claus]

Mod's Hint of the day:

Step back when knocking on doors.

Vote Count!

The Fonz 3 - Llama Fluff, Jebus, Sierra
Blak Adder 3 - Massive, Farside, Springlulaby
Massive 1 - EA
Llama Fluff 1 - The Fonz

Not Voting: Jahudo, Shadowgirl, BA

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.


==============

Also, I'm going for a trip tomorrow, will be back on the 6th. I may have access meanwhile, but don't count on it. I know you guys will behave

[The Fonz]

3) Swing and a miss here. We have 11 alive, and I am making a 4-4-1-1 assumption for killing roles, or a 3-1-1-1 alive. If we eliminate one of the 1s, there are only three kills and the game cant end given that three greeks need four non-greek kills to win. Jap lynch eliminates today being a possible lylo.

You are correct that that is the case; you are incorrect in that the Greeks are still the priority. The chance of five kills all hitting different non-greeks is pretty small anyway; the 'can win overnight' point was merely to show that they are the strongest threat right now.

4) I dont want what I am thinking to be a wash here, and if EA is the vig what I am working on will take much longer to actually figure out, and possibly cause quite a bit of confusion. There is a good reason for me to want to know if EA is lying about being the vig, since there are a few people who are obviously not the SK already. It being another 1 faction, eliminating it would prevent lylo

Again, trying to argue for something that would lead to an SK (ie non-Greek) lynch.

5) I put some stuff up on Seph a while and will go through again later. There just seem to be multiple instances where he ended up with an idea about the setup of the game before it became part of the scene.

I've looked, and this is flatout untrue.

[LlamaFluff]

You are correct that that is the case; you are incorrect in that the Greeks are still the priority. The chance of five kills all hitting different non-greeks is pretty small anyway; the 'can win overnight' point was merely to show that they are the strongest threat right now.

They are the strongest threat at this point, while getting rid of an entire faction is slightly preferable since it does bring the ammount of NKs down, bringing down a faction to the point where they can not end the game (even on a low chance) is ideal.

Again, trying to argue for something that would lead to an SK (ie non-Greek) lynch.

I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason for getting a counter to EA. Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.

I've looked, and this is flatout untrue.

Seph was the first to speculate about multiple factions, with just two kills at night. There was a cult and scum flip which again really doesnt sound like scum-scum-cult-sk threat to me. At this point in my read I expected scum-cult-sk-maybe vig.

There was also the fact that Seph when hammering Emp, really sounded like he expected a town flip. When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum. This hammer just still leaves me floored. Seph hammered a player 1) Because of another player 'making' him 2) who he thought was a jester. It just feels like newbie scum being overly cautious of what is an easy lynch to me, and trying to shuffle the blame to another player a bit too blatantly given that he knew Emp wasnt scum (with him at least). The fear of having Emp be opposing scum is likely what made him keep scum as second option. Remember Seph knew there were two families at this point.

Later Seph brought back the "two families" arguement after the death of a Greek, but for the first time gives any reasoning for this train of thought. At this point though the reasoning was already public.

While this is primarily inside information thoughts that make Seph Greek (not Jap since Jap could not of known of duel families untill D3 broke), the actions regarding the lynch of Emp make him look very scummy.

Gor on his own feels pretty scummy as well. He initally really doesnt commit to a whole lot, his first read comes as SG-scummish due to OMGUS reasons about his predicessor. Later this changed to a massive vote for "willing to vote many people", which I disagree with as being suspicious of and sticking to three suspects isnt trying to lynch everyone.

Apart fromt that all the Gor did over his short stay was apoligize for Seph being scummy, and for not contributing too much. Him coming in with a very weak suspicion of SG and a vote against massive (who was a pusher of a Seph lynch with some decent reasons) is scummy in the suspicion category.

You just replaced scum who was on the way out here I am thinking. In your opinion though - What is the ideal scum group to lynch?

[Sierra]

Still I agree that gorckat deserves more attention. Just not because of the tracking/flavour argument, but because Sera was scummy as hell before he was replaced. In a game I played recently, one of the scum admitted to have asked for replacement when he got caught in a tight position, not because he really needed replacement but because he figured a replacement might be the only thing to save him from a lynch. It worked. Thanks to that game, I'm now a bit more wary of people replacing in for someone who was especially scummy.

Except that he wasn't that scummy, and certainly wasn't the next in line to lynch.

Seraphim seems to have thought differently about that, judging by his hammering post:

Fine. You know what? You can lynch me next round; I don't care. He could be Jester; I don't care. I'll deal with that next day. For now, I think I speak for the majority when I say

Vote: Empking

Tar, just remember, this was your idea. If he isn't a jester, he's definitely scum. If he turns up town, I guess the joke's on me, then.

Sierra, sorry, but no dice. There are only three people voting me. One of whom at least I think is scum. The case on my role, as far as I can see, is lurking plus the Jester thing. The Jester thing obviously isn't a scumtell, and I'm invalidating any lurker case here and now by contributing lots. (Plus, you can't really make a case on my role for lurking which is distinct from the case on, say, Spring. Which is not to say that lurking is OK, but that lurkerlynching me seems stupid). That leaves you with basically nothing.

As much as I appreciate the effort you are putting in, it's going a bit too far to say this clears you of all cases stated against your predecessors. LlamaFluff - even if you think he's scum - makes some valid points against you (against Sera acually) that you haven't answered to yet.

[The Fonz]

You are correct that that is the case; you are incorrect in that the Greeks are still the priority. The chance of five kills all hitting different non-greeks is pretty small anyway; the 'can win overnight' point was merely to show that they are the strongest threat right now.

They are the strongest threat at this point, while getting rid of an entire faction is slightly preferable since it does bring the ammount of NKs down, bringing down a faction to the point where they can not end the game (even on a low chance) is ideal.

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason for getting a counter to EA. Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.

I'm sure you do have a personal priority to lynch the SK; he isn't your scumbuddy. I'm not sure what you're getting at about this 'modified doctor wifom' thing- could you clarify?

I've looked, and this is flatout untrue.

Seph was the first to speculate about multiple factions, with just two kills at night.

This is, again, untrue. The first speculation as to the likelihood of a second scumgroup is this post:

An unrelated point: Does stef being in the japanese mafia imply two mafias?

TSPN was, of course, town. armlx, also town, agrees that this is the likely implication of stef being tagged as 'Japanese' mafia. Seraph's speculation in 326 is of an entirely similar type to that post, and CKD's 329 (where it is suggested that a vig is very likely, and an SK unlikely).

There was a cult and scum flip which again really doesnt sound like scum-scum-cult-sk threat to me. At this point in my read I expected scum-cult-sk-maybe vig.

And this, yet again, you've just pulled it out of your arse. He did not say scum-scum-cult-sk. He didn't mention an sk. What he said was along the lines of 'I think we have multiple scum families, and the cult leader might have died trying to recruit scum.' There's no inside information here AT ALL. The multiple scum families bit follows logically from Stef being tagged as Jap. The cult leader dying recruiting scum is also a perfectly plausible possibility (he doesn't seem to consider what happened to the other scumgroup's nightkill).

There was also the fact that Seph when hammering Emp, really sounded like he expected a town flip.

This is...drumroll... untrue. He said 'if he's not a jester, he's DEFINITELY (emphasis mine) scum.' Please explain how, in a million years, that can be translated as 'expecting a town flip.'

When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum.

He said 'ok Tar, this is your idea,' sure. The obvious implication of this is not to blame Seph if Emp was, indeed, a jester. It's a 'don't say i didn't warn you' kind of thing.

This hammer just still leaves me floored. Seph hammered a player 1) Because of another player 'making' him 2) who he thought was a jester. It just feels like newbie scum being overly cautious of what is an easy lynch to me, and trying to shuffle the blame to another player a bit too blatantly given that he knew Emp wasnt scum (with him at least).

See the following newbie thought process:

1. Seph thinks Emp is scummy beyond belief.

2. Seph think Emp is soooooo scummy, he must be actively trying to get himself lynch. I mean, no-one's

that

scummy.

This is a function of Seph's inexperience; if he'd played with, say, ABR or Guardian before, he'd know full well that plenty of the time people are that scummy/abusive/whatever.

3. If he's trying to get himself lynched, then he must be a jester. He vocalizes this notion.

4. People jump down his throat for suggesting Jester, implying that he's making a 'too scummy to be scum' defence of Emp. (Note the incentives for various actions here: if Seph genuinely were scum, he'd know Emp isn't his buddy. That he's worried about being tied to Emp means he must think Emp is definitely not town; since if Seph is scum and believed Emp is town, the beneficial thing to do is to say this, and get credit for defending a townie. The implication here is that Seph is either town, or scum who genuinely thought Emp was a rival. But hang on... if he thinks he's rival scum, why does he raise the Jester point in the first place? It would be easy enough to support the wagon. The ONLY reasonable explanation here is that Seph is town).

5. Feeling browbeaten, Seph thinks 'oh, to hell with it.' Seph's convinced Emp's definitely not

town

; so it's not that big a loss anyway. So he hammers, with the disclaimer that he still thinks jester is a distinct possibility.

The fear of having Emp be opposing scum is likely what made him keep scum as second option. Remember Seph knew there were two families at this point.

Sorry, what? I'm not following here. He didn't know anything. He logically worked it out here. You're arguing from the perspective here of 'Seph is definitely scum' and everything he does then fits into your argument, even if it doesn't.

Later Seph brought back the "two families" arguement after the death of a Greek, but for the first time gives any reasoning for this train of thought. At this point though the reasoning was already public.

The reasoning was already 'public' before Seph ever speculated on the existence of a second scumgroup.

While this is primarily inside information thoughts that make Seph Greek (not Jap since Jap could not of known of duel families untill D3 broke), the actions regarding the lynch of Emp make him look very scummy.

Except that I've shown there was no inside information, so this is bunk. Jap 'could not have known of a second family?' Then HOW COME MULTIPLE TOWN PLAYERS CAME TO THIS EXACT CONCLUSION?

Gor on his own feels pretty scummy as well. He initally really doesnt commit to a whole lot, his first read comes as SG-scummish due to OMGUS reasons about his predicessor.

Ah, the OMGUS accusation. How I hate thee.

Later this changed to a massive vote for "willing to vote many people", which I disagree with as being suspicious of and sticking to three suspects isnt trying to lynch everyone.

Being willing to 'float in the wind' certainly is a scumtell.

Apart fromt that all the Gor did over his short stay was apoligize for Seph being scummy, and for not contributing too much. Him coming in with a very weak suspicion of SG and a vote against massive (who was a pusher of a Seph lynch with some decent reasons) is scummy in the suspicion category.

You just replaced scum who was on the way out here I am thinking. In your opinion though - What is the ideal scum group to lynch?

And you were applying the label of 'obvscum' to someone who wasn't there to fight back, on the basis of terrible/nonexistent reasoning. You thought you would be able to browbeat any replacement. Well, tough luck, sugar. You've been caught.

Oh and priority? Greek, obviously. You.

Also, note LF's clear double standard in expecting me to defend Seph, whilst saying of my suspicions of Cybele 'well, that's not me, I can't answer for it.'

Sierra: posting his hammer post, and saying 'Well, he did think he was next in line' doesn't add anything. It doesn't support your argument. Please address my argument: namely, that it is blatantly obvious that Seph is only distancing himself from the hammer IN THE SCENARIO WHERE EMP COMES UP JESTER.

[Jahudo]

Seph was the first to speculate about multiple factions, with just two kills at night. There was a cult and scum flip which again really doesnt sound like scum-scum-cult-sk threat to me. At this point in my read I expected scum-cult-sk-maybe vig.

I suspected Seph for doing more setup talk than scumhunting but I didn't think that he slipped by talking about the scum factions or that he did anything scummy by bringing it up. And Fonz notes that Seph wasn't the first to talk about the possibility of two mafias. So Llama's point #5 looks like an inflated suspicion.

Assuming two mafia families when there are only half of what have become the normal death rate makes me think he saw an opposing mafia faction flip, and jumped to a conclusion.

Since Seph was responding to Sweatpantsninja's comment about the word japanese, it was a small step to wonder why they didn't flip regionally nondescript mafia goon. It would be a small step then to assume that the 2 night kills were performed by the 2 mafias.

And IMO, CKD and Tar are the ones that look worse in hindsight for playing down the idea of 2 mafias so people won't think in those terms.

An unrelated point: Does stef being in the japanese mafia imply two mafias?

I do believe there are at two Mafia families. The first clearly killed a member of the opposing family, so there's now a Mafia family with one less member. The second kill may be the Cult Leader who tried to recruit a Mafia member or the second Mafia family's kill.

If we have two mafias, I bet we also have a vig (of some sort) unless he is allowing cross kills. With evidence of a cult, I doubt we have a SK, but nothing should be ruled out.

I doubt we have two full Mafia groups, based mainly on the existence of a Cult. Mafia + SK sounds more plausible to me.

[LlamaFluff]

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

I'm sure you do have a personal priority to lynch the SK; he isn't your scumbuddy. I'm not sure what you're getting at about this 'modified doctor wifom' thing- could you clarify?

I do have a priority, that is all about that. The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch. We have EA who is our vig and Jebus who is our watcher. Jebus watches EA at nights, and scum can not kill him. If we eliminate one entire anti-town faction, that increases the likelyhood of only having Jebus be NKed, while still leaving the chance of EA getting double killed, and two scum caught. Whoever Jebus watches cant die before Jebus, modified doctor.

He said 'if he's not a jester, he's DEFINITELY (emphasis mine) scum.' Please explain how, in a million years, that can be translated as 'expecting a town flip.'

When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum.

He said 'ok Tar, this is your idea,' sure. The obvious implication of this is not to blame Seph if Emp was, indeed, a jester. It's a 'don't say i didn't warn you' kind of thing.

I just hate any "I warned you" type posts, since regardless of what they net, quite a bit of the blame is ready to be shifted. While when its a good lynch Seph would lose some credit, he still gets enough for a few points.

See the following newbie thought process:

And for countermeasures this one

1. Emp looks really scummy, is he Jap?

2. I wonder if he is jester?

3. Emp is an easy lynch, but I dont want to lose the game by taking the easy lynch and killing the jester.

4. Ok fine its worth the risk, but if we lose I blame Tar.

Ah, the OMGUS accusation. How I hate thee.

Did you read the reasoning behind his suspicion? It was due to the SG-Seph exchange.

Being willing to 'float in the wind' certainly is a scumtell.

Listing multiple suspects on the otherhand does NOT fall in the scumtell category. Look at massives eighth post, small cases on his top three. Not 'float in the wind'. Over the next couple

weeks

he voted for two of them, in fact by the time gor voted him, he had only voted for one. Not even close to 'float in the wind'.

Also, note LF's clear double standard in expecting me to defend Seph, whilst saying of my suspicions of Cybele 'well, that's not me, I can't answer for it.'

Difference here is all you have done apart from an analysis is post a case on me. What do you expect me to do here? It seems like you want me to just drop everything all your predicessors did for no real reason. You on the otherhand are using things that I have done and calling me scum for it. So we either both drop predicessor actions and I can only defend or belittle your analysis, or I can use the scummy stuff Seph and Gor did as active evidence.

[The Fonz]

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

But a self-vote would be so much more effective. (In all seriousness, I'm not trying to convince YOU: you're scum. I'm trying to demonstrate that your allegations are ridiculous).

I'm sure you do have a personal priority to lynch the SK; he isn't your scumbuddy. I'm not sure what you're getting at about this 'modified doctor wifom' thing- could you clarify?

I do have a priority, that is all about that. The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch. We have EA who is our vig and Jebus who is our watcher. Jebus watches EA at nights, and scum can not kill him. If we eliminate one entire anti-town faction, that increases the likelyhood of only having Jebus be NKed, while still leaving the chance of EA getting double killed, and two scum caught. Whoever Jebus watches cant die before Jebus, modified doctor.

This is so dumb it makes my head hurt.

WHY does Jebus have to watch EA? Answer: he doesn't. Since we think EA is likely SK, we have no problem with him being killed; in fact, we expect our vig to do it.

Also, for those of you playing along at home with the 'Llamafluff obvscum contradiction counter':

1.

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch

He said 'if he's not a jester, he's DEFINITELY (emphasis mine) scum.' Please explain how, in a million years, that can be translated as 'expecting a town flip.'

When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum.

Yes. This is what happened. It seems we are agreed on this. How does this answer the question?

He said 'ok Tar, this is your idea,' sure. The obvious implication of this is not to blame Seph if Emp was, indeed, a jester. It's a 'don't say i didn't warn you' kind of thing.

I just hate any "I warned you" type posts, since regardless of what they net, quite a bit of the blame is ready to be shifted. While when its a good lynch Seph would lose some credit, he still gets enough for a few points.

You just hate them. A-ha. And, again, it is scummy how? HE HAS STATED EXPLICITLY he doesn't see any chance of Emp = town. He is clearly not trying to deflect responsibility in the event that Emp is town.

He suggested Jester. He got told that was a really stupid, perhaps even scummy suggestion. He gives in, but with the caveat that he still feels a jester is a distinct possibility.

See the following newbie thought process:

And for countermeasures this one

1. Emp looks really scummy, is he Jap?

2. I wonder if he is jester?

3. Emp is an easy lynch, but I dont want to lose the game by taking the easy lynch and killing the jester.

4. Ok fine its worth the risk, but if we lose I blame Tar.

Yup, thank you, you have proven my point: this one doesn't make any sense. Specifically: phase three.

Ah, the OMGUS accusation. How I hate thee.

Did you read the reasoning behind his suspicion? It was due to the SG-Seph exchange.

*Sigh*

Go check out the MD discussion entitled 'OMGUS doesn't exist.' Started by me. Gorckat claimed to get a scummy vibe off SG's interactions with seph; if you want to try and make the case that you don't think a town player really would have gotten scum vibes there, be my guest. Calling it 'omgus' doesn't add anything, and is the kind of thing people throwing mud rather than genuinely scumhunting do.

Being willing to 'float in the wind' certainly is a scumtell.

Listing multiple suspects on the otherhand does NOT fall in the scumtell category. Look at massives eighth post, small cases on his top three. Not 'float in the wind'. Over the next couple

weeks

he voted for two of them, in fact by the time gor voted him, he had only voted for one. Not even close to 'float in the wind'.

Posts like this:

I could follow you on to armlx, CKD.

Seem to fit that description perfectly, in my eyes. He also lists things he 'finds suspicious' about three others. Then makes the above post. Then votes Seph, who wasn't one of those three- based on truly horrific reasoning. Then goes to SG.

Then of course, there's these - from consecutive posts no less-

Of course I'm willing to vote for anyone.

Please point out where I've indicated I'm willing to vote for anyone.

Difference here is all you have done apart from an analysis is post a case on me.

Well, apart from

analysis...

What do you expect me to do here? It seems like you want me to just drop everything all your predicessors did for no real reason

Nope. That's what you're doing. Again, expecting me to defend Gorckat/Seph, but unwilling to defend Cybele.

You on the otherhand are using things that I have done and calling me scum for it.

Actually, my case is more on Cybele than you. (Pretty much the only thing she did that looked like town scumhunting, she disavowed as soon as she was pressured for it). However, I'm certainly not going to ignore your scummy actions, nor neglect to defend my own and my predecessors' from craplogic attacks.

So we either both drop predicessor actions and I can only defend or belittle your analysis, or I can use the scummy stuff Seph and Gor did as active evidence.

Again, double standard. I'm happy enough to defend Seph: not only is he my predecessor, he wasn't actually that scummy, lurking aside. I'd just like people (not just you) to take a long hard look at Cybele.

[LlamaFluff]

WHY does Jebus have to watch EA? Answer: he doesn't. Since we think EA is likely SK, we have no problem with him being killed; in fact, we expect our vig to do it.

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though. Again you trying to increase the chance of our vig dying is scummy.

1.

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I just hate any "I warned you" type posts, since regardless of what they net, quite a bit of the blame is ready to be shifted. While when its a good lynch Seph would lose some credit, he still gets enough for a few points.

You just hate them. A-ha. And, again, it is scummy how? HE HAS STATED EXPLICITLY he doesn't see any chance of Emp = town. He is clearly not trying to deflect responsibility in the event that Emp is town.

He suggested Jester. He got told that was a really stupid, perhaps even scummy suggestion. He gives in, but with the caveat that he still feels a jester is a distinct possibility.[/quote]

I still think that Seph was thinking that Emp was either jester, jap or town at the end. What I dont see is town really fretting about a jester too much if he also saw Emp as scummy. Scum would seem a little bit more afraid about the Jester possibility, especially Greek who got rid of the cult threat, and an opposing facton member.

Go check out the MD discussion entitled 'OMGUS doesn't exist.' Started by me. Gorckat claimed to get a scummy vibe off SG's interactions with seph; if you want to try and make the case that you don't think a town player really would have gotten scum vibes there, be my guest. Calling it 'omgus' doesn't add anything, and is the kind of thing people throwing mud rather than genuinely scumhunting do.

Damn I hate this debate. To me OMGUS in pure terms really doesnt exist, but a player being hostile or voting you, will, even if it is very slight, make you think they are scum. You may be able to back up the vote with evidence or things like that, but being influenced by people voting against you occurs in the game. As less and less reasoning for a return vote occurs, the vote moves farther from the "logical vote" area of the scale to the "OMGUS vote" scale (which is onyl achieved in the random stage and again is debateable there).

ANYWHO. Gor called SG suspicious purely on the exchange between SG-Seph (who Gor just replaced). This suspicion was also never really elaborated on, just left at gut. Even if you disagree on the OMGUS vote line, you have to agree that this was a really shitty suspicion.

Seem to fit that description perfectly, in my eyes. He also lists things he 'finds suspicious' about three others. Then makes the above post. Then votes Seph, who wasn't one of those three- based on truly horrific reasoning. Then goes to SG.

Then of course, there's these - from consecutive posts no less-

Of course I'm willing to vote for anyone.

Please point out where I've indicated I'm willing to vote for anyone.

While I am not saying the vote on Seph was well reasoned, I do think its the correct vote so am probably giving it some deserved slack. The quote of "I am willing to vote for anyone" is being exaggerated a bit though. I dont think that it was everyone in the extent of every player, but everyone as in anyone he is suspicious of (SG, Seph, BA, EA, armlx). This is something for massive to clarify though.

Nope. That's what you're doing. Again, expecting me to defend Gorckat/Seph, but unwilling to defend Cybele.

Well partially because I have zero clue HOW to defend 'lurky' since I am more of a prolific poster then anything else, especially when I am into a game.

Anyways for the backing off, I just think that Cybele was afraid of getting wagoned D1 for what really was a semi-serious vote and freaked out. He isnt a mafia player for the most part, still at the goon status while having almost 2200 onsite posts. I have seen lots of new players who are experiancing things for the first time just freak out under pressure as town.

I dont get the #2 point though. I dont see Cybele ever tunneling on anyone or Electra being suspicious of anyone really (except maybe KUF/Jahudo).

[farside22]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

[The Fonz]

WHY does Jebus have to watch EA? Answer: he doesn't. Since we think EA is likely SK, we have no problem with him being killed; in fact, we expect our vig to do it.

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit.

You're not going to get away with merely asserting that.

I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though. Again you trying to increase the chance of our vig dying is scummy.

It is ALWAYS a bad idea to protect claimed vigs unless they are confirmed (for the same reason it's pretty much always a bad idea to lynch them the same day). It is your suggestion that is scummy.

The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.[/quote]

This adds nothing.

I still think that Seph was thinking that Emp was either jester, jap or town at the end. What I dont see is town really fretting about a jester too much if he also saw Emp as scummy.

I HUGELY disagree. Town is FAR more likely than scum to worry about a jester there. If a player's really scummy, it's easy enough for scum to just join the wagon without any fanfare. No-one will really attack you over it, since everyone thinks the guy's really scummy. A townie, however, is going to worry about whether the guy really is scum. Hence your claimed scum thought process for Seph is ridiculous- because 'Oh, I'd better not lose the game by hammering a jester' doesn't make any sense.

Again, the reason the jester idea went through his head in the first place is

because he thought Emp was superhumanly scummy.

Scum would seem a little bit more afraid about the Jester possibility, especially Greek who got rid of the cult threat, and an opposing facton member.

This makes no sense. As i've said, town is more likely than scum to be afraid of the jester possibility.

ANYWHO. Gor called SG suspicious purely on the exchange between SG-Seph (who Gor just replaced). This suspicion was also never really elaborated on, just left at gut. Even if you disagree on the OMGUS vote line, you have to agree that this was a really shitty suspicion.

To do this, I would have to agree that gut suspicions are inherently invalid. I don't.

While I am not saying the vote on Seph was well reasoned, I do think its the correct vote so am probably giving it some deserved slack. The quote of "I am willing to vote for anyone" is being exaggerated a bit though. I dont think that it was everyone in the extent of every player, but everyone as in anyone he is suspicious of (SG, Seph, BA, EA, armlx). This is something for massive to clarify though.

Right. Someone attacks my predecessor with craplogic, and you say 'although it was badly reasoned, I think it's right so...' You're opening from the assumption that Seph is scum.

Nope. That's what you're doing. Again, expecting me to defend Gorckat/Seph, but unwilling to defend Cybele.

Well partially because I have zero clue HOW to defend 'lurky' since I am more of a prolific poster then anything else, especially when I am into a game.

The case on her is not lack of posts. It's her lack of

saying anything,

and ties to the only dead Greek.

Anyways for the backing off, I just think that Cybele was afraid of getting wagoned D1 for what really was a semi-serious vote and freaked out. He isnt a mafia player for the most part, still at the goon status while having almost 2200 onsite posts. I have seen lots of new players who are experiancing things for the first time just freak out under pressure as town.

Right, so YOUR newbie predecessor's actions are 'just newbie.'

I dont get the #2 point though. I dont see Cybele ever tunneling on anyone or Electra being suspicious of anyone really (except maybe KUF/Jahudo).

It's not that Cybele was tunneling. It was that EA was voting and attacking Cybele, and Electra asked him to 'stop tunneling.' This looks to me like a scum trying to get attention off of a buddy.

[Jebus]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

What, what?

Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )

[Jahudo]

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though.

@LlamaFluff, what happened to thinking EA was the SK? You said his kill pattern DID fit SK earlier:

EA is nearly certain anti-town since the vig probably killed Rush.

EA I did have leaning town, but results say he killed the townish CKD last night. Rush was nearly certaintly the vigs doing.

I like the EA lynch since he is the one doing the murdered kills, and neither ooba or CKD looked scummy to me meaning I dont think he is the vig.

Also, what makes you think Sierra or I are the SK?

[The Fonz]

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though.

@LlamaFluff, what happened to thinking EA was the SK? You said his kill pattern DID fit SK earlier:

Just for those of you still counting the obvious contradictions in LF's posts.

[farside22]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

What, what?

Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )

Didn't you claim you saw BA target GW and that was not the truth?

[farside22]

Eh, screw it.

unvote
Vote: Erratus Apathos

I'm a watcher. He killed (specifically) CKD.

I targeted Tarhalindur (didn't get targeted), Ghostwriter (killed by BlackAdder), and then CKD (killed by Erratus Apathos).

I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.

Ghostwriter was a Japanese mafia, so BlackAdder is not. Erratus Apathos could be any scum, so I go with him over BA.

They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.

Here is the quote. As I said Jebus the statement in regards to BA targeting GW was a lie you stated later it wasn't true so to me yes BA's reaction is genuine as if BA is scum with GW why would he target him the night he died.

[Jahudo]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

So BA's denial was genuine but it doesn't make him any less likely to be scum, he's just not responsible for GW's death.

Llama: I'd also like to know how BA not killing a japanese mafia member (GW) makes BA less likely to be in japanese mafia?