Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I will accept the yelling-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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Again.In post 1493, Radical Rat wrote:
If Umlaut is Town, with four cops already flipped... 4 dead + 2 claimed = 6, which is impossible in a 5 cop game, but possible in a 6 cop game.In post 1491, Ranger wrote:
Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.In post 1488, Radical Rat wrote:We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.
redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel
And now Enchant
And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.
With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchantnot being flipped last night, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.
If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.
Which meansregardless of Umlaut's alignment, the scumwould not doubt your claim--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.
Therefore if scum believes me it's confirmed a 6 cop game, and if they don't it's highly likely a 5 cop game.
Enchant wasn't dead last night.
For all intents and purposes,regardless of 5:5 or 6:4, the scum wouldn't know RR was faking if RR were town.They would assume RR instead of Enchant was the last cop.
Imagine if Enchant had claimed yesterday and RR did not.
We'd have six claimed cops, and scum would know the total (and it would be either five or six).
It's identical in every way to RR having claimed and Enchant having not.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Ranger, you're just wrong here.
Scum can believe me if Umlaut is scum, but if Umlaut is Town they can ONLY believe me in a six cop game because four plus one equals five. And six is greater than five.
You're right that if Enchant claimed instead the math would be the same, but wrong that scum would believe everything regardless-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Unless they believed me and thought Umlaut was lying I guess? But I can't imagine they'd believe the cop with results over the cop without any-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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If Umlaut is in fact town as claimed post-hammer, I do in fact lean towards {RR, KawaiiKame} for the hammer Kawaii dropped if nothing else.
Prior to Gimli's recent posting I thought Gimli could be TMI'ing scum by virtue of having pushed Cephrir over furtive and RR over Umlaut (in other words, being right on both scum is actually arguably suspect), but with Gimli's solving I actually believe he genuinely came to those conclusions organically without knowing too much.
I don't believe LLD is ever scum here.
So the last two scum are in {RR, KawaiiKame, Save the Dragons}.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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If Umlaut's Town, Kawaii's definitely on the team-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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Again, you're arguing under the knowledge Enchant has flipped. But he hadn't.In post 1502, Radical Rat wrote:Scum can believe me if Umlaut is scum, but if Umlaut is Town they can ONLY believe me in a six cop game because four plus one equals five. And six is greater than five.
If Umlaut is town, there's six cops in the game and yesterdaythere were six cops claimed. Six, not five, not seven.
If Umlaut is scum, there's five cops in the game and yesterdaythere were six cops claimed. With the scum knowing Umlaut is scum, that's five legit cops total. Five, not six, not seven.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Yes. And scum knows AHEAD OF TIME how many cops there are.
So if there are six claims and they know there's only five in the game, BEFORE anything happens with Enchant... what does that mean?-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I guess it doesn't matter at this point.
Either Umlaut's flip will prove me right, or I'll look very silly for trying to predict what scum would do-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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I'd like to reiterate this.In post 1506, Ranger wrote:
Again, you're arguing under the knowledge Enchant has flipped. But he hadn't.In post 1502, Radical Rat wrote:Scum can believe me if Umlaut is scum, but if Umlaut is Town they can ONLY believe me in a six cop game because four plus one equals five. And six is greater than five.
If Umlaut is town, there's six cops in the game and yesterdaythere were six cops claimed. Six, not five, not seven.
If Umlaut is scum, there's five cops in the game and yesterdaythere were six cops claimed. With the scum knowing Umlaut is scum, that's five legit cops total. Five, not six, not seven.
With RR's claim being false regardless of their alignment, RR's claim is interchangeable with Enchant's. The scum cannot magically know RR's claim is false unless RR is scum.
If Umlaut is town, with Enchant having been a cop (just unflipped), scum knew the total of cops was six, and Umlaut+RR/Enchant made 6. The scum would believe the sixth was RR, if RR were town.
If Umlaut is scum, with Enchant having been an unflipped cop, scum knew the total of cops was five, and RR/Enchant made five (with Umlaut fakeclaiming).
The scum would know any scum claiming would be fake, but with Enchant havingnotclaimed,scum could not have known RR's claim was fake...unless of course RR was scum.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I really don't want tomorrow to just be arguing over elementary school math, so please just. Look at it again over the night without confbias-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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You're arguing something impossible: Umlaut+Enchant town with five cops in the game after 4 had flipped.In post 1507, Radical Rat wrote:Yes. And scum knows AHEAD OF TIME how many cops there are.
So if there are six claims and they know there's only five in the game, BEFORE anything happens with Enchant... what does that mean?
Your argument literally relies on that impossible scenario, which the scum would know was impossible.
The scum know the total of cops is either five or six.
The scum know Umlaut claimed cop.
The scum know RR claimed cop (and RR in this case is interchangeable with Enchant).
5 cops with Umlaut+Enchant/RR both claimed is impossible, and scum knew that yesterday.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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There's no confbias involved.In post 1510, Radical Rat wrote:I really don't want tomorrow to just be arguing over elementary school math, so please just. Look at it again over the night without confbias
Regardless of your alignment, andregardless of Umlaut's alignment, there is never too many cop claims yesterday in the scum's eyes.
There's either exactly the right amount, orone too few.
The scum know the total number of cops this game.
If the total is 5, then yesterday they would see 4 dead cops and two claimed cops. They would know that's an impossibility and one would be fake. If neither claim is scum, they would "know" one was town and lying. (And with Enchant taken into the equation without their knowledge, they would betwo over the total, because 4 dead + Enchant + RR + Umlaut = 7.) This scenariorequires both claims to be lies, because with 5 cops in the game and Enchant unclaimed, both claimed cops would be fake.
And since Enchant was a cop and Umlaut is claimed cop,this cannot be possible.
If the total is 5, then yesterday they would see 4 dead cops and two claimed cops, and know which of them was lying. They would "know"the remaining cop was town.
If the total is 6, then yesterday they would see 4 dead cops and two claimed cops, and know if any were lying. They would "know" the claims to be real.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Okay, I apologize, I see what you're saying now.
Umlaut + Enchant still makes sense, so if Umlaut is Town a five cop game is impossible, and if Umlaut is scum, a five cop game IS possible but Umlaut wouldn't count toward the limit.
I'm sorry I got heated over that, I was hung up on the raw numbers and didn't consider the implications different scenarios had.-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Which means there's a very real probability I was just incredibly wrong on the whole thing. Fuck.-
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Ranger She/Her{Top Tier}She/Her
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To be clear, I'll be instavoting Radical Rat tomorrow if Lady Lambdadelta dies overnight.
If Umlaut flips town cop as it seems, LLD would be forced to accept I'm town on D5.
I'm not letting RR get away with "I protected Ranger" as an excuse for letting LLD die.AKA, rBree2. Casual tryhard. I've Quite the RANGE. #pluralgangGame History"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."- RadiantCowbells |"Ranger's been town in most of them."- Plotinus
"Ranger fake claiming? I'm shocked"- usesPython-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I'd have preferred you not say that because now I have to play double WIFOM with scum-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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if tomorrow is elo then I don't see how scum doesn't either shoot ranger or holsters
ranger going 'defend lld or i'm going to tunnel you' doesn't help
neither does it help eliminating the likelier town in the rr/umlaut pair-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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I hope kawa is scum anyway-
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Gimli he/himJack of All Tradeshe/him
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std and lld also spent a huge chunk of the game just letting town eat itself up
meh-
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LavosCore Fae/FaerGoonFae/Faer
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LavosCore Fae/FaerGoonFae/Faer
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Last edited by LavosCore on Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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LavosCore Fae/FaerGoonFae/Faer
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LavosCore Fae/FaerGoonFae/Faer
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