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Frogsterking
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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:10 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 299, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 293, Flavia wrote:OK, so, less confusing.

Furtive townreads Passenger, you say they might be right about them being town but might be a bit presumptive, then you post a list of people that were clear cuz I was town, including Passenger (I believe this is the team solve they were talking about). Then they ask basically why you said fugitive view is presumptive but they were in your town reads.

You had a whole case on me, why was this interaction more significant.
1) I have a whole case on Passenger as well I'm procrastinating posting which is even better than the one I had on you.

2) I think Dease is Town this game and is a very competent player so I'm willing to rethink my read on you.

3) If I work under the assumption that you and Kookaburra are Town, that means I would expect scum to be pushing a vanity wagon and not taking an active role in deciding whether Flavia or Kookaburra is the D1 lim. I looked through Passenger's ISO and saw that not only were their main two targets myself and Dease, they are currently pushing a nonsense scum read on me and interacted with both you and Kookaburra as though they already know you two are Town very early in the day.
You are wrong about the solve Passenger was talking about by the way, they are reacting to a solve I posted earlier where I said they mightbe scum with you
In post 155, Frogsterking wrote:If partner equity is going to become a theme, I'd like to propose Passenger has partner equity with N.Y.M and Flavia. When players are hyper accurate (like I
sometimes
am on D1) it can force scum to make scumtells they wouldn't ordinarily make (like chainsawing.) I can link to you at least one completed game where scum were forced to react this way to me. looks... unnatural to me? It pings me in a way Passenger's posting hasn't done yet. I feel there can be an element of projection in it where Passenger accuses me of approaching other slots in bad faith while they themselves manufacture a case by misrepresenting my motivations.

I'll admit Koko was a part of my team solve I mentioned earlier, but now with more information (from their wagon piling on) I feel their reaction to pressure is more indicative of a Resident who is wrongly accused.

Also yes I may as well out my team solve is N.Y.M/Flavia/Passenger, it was previously N.Y.M/Flavia/Koko
.


My opinion is that there is an element of Price's Law at play, where Flavia and N.Y.M are abandoning thread control and Passenger feels motivated to take up the reigns as a more active scum poster.

I'll wait a little bit longer before I get into my ideas about hunting for the Dictator.
I also was clearly FoSing Passenger in my post addressed to furtive, just expressing some uncertainty about it.

Part of the reason I removed Passenger from my third team solve is because I don't think you and Passenger are aligned.

The fact that Passenger is still pushing me partlybecause I included them in an outdated team solve is very survivalistic and behavior I have seen as more likely to come from scum than Town.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:31 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 299, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 293, Flavia wrote:OK, so, less confusing.

Furtive townreads Passenger, you say they might be right about them being town but might be a bit presumptive, then you post a list of people that were clear cuz I was town, including Passenger (I believe this is the team solve they were talking about). Then they ask basically why you said fugitive view is presumptive but they were in your town reads.

You had a whole case on me, why was this interaction more significant.
1) I have a whole case on Passenger as well I'm procrastinating posting which is even better than the one I had on you.

2) I think Dease is Town this game and is a very competent player so I'm willing to rethink my read on you.

3) If I work under the assumption that you and Kookaburra are Town, that means I would expect scum to be pushing a vanity wagon and not taking an active role in deciding whether Flavia or Kookaburra is the D1 lim. I looked through Passenger's ISO and saw that not only were their main two targets myself and Dease, they are currently pushing a nonsense scum read on me and interacted with both you and Kookaburra as though they already know you two are Town very early in the day.
4) your defense in is significantly better (in that it is more likely to come from Town) than Passenger's in and

5) I value my case on Passenger more than you because of this timeline below:

#1 I out my initial team solve here
In post 155, Frogsterking wrote:If partner equity is going to become a theme, I'd like to propose Passenger has partner equity with N.Y.M and Flavia. When players are hyper accurate (like I
sometimes
am on D1) it can force scum to make scumtells they wouldn't ordinarily make (like chainsawing.) I can link to you at least one completed game where scum were forced to react this way to me. looks... unnatural to me? It pings me in a way Passenger's posting hasn't done yet. I feel there can be an element of projection in it where Passenger accuses me of approaching other slots in bad faith while they themselves manufacture a case by misrepresenting my motivations.

I'll admit Koko was a part of my team solve I mentioned earlier, but now with more information (from their wagon piling on) I feel their reaction to pressure is more indicative of a Resident who is wrongly accused.

Also yes I may as well out my team solve is N.Y.M/Flavia/Passenger, it was previously N.Y.M/Flavia/Koko.


My opinion is that there is an element of Price's Law at play, where Flavia and N.Y.M are abandoning thread control and Passenger feels motivated to take up the reigns as a more active scum poster.

I'll wait a little bit longer before I get into my ideas about hunting for the Dictator.
#2 I post a huge case, realizing in the process Passenger is unlikely to be aligned with Flavia.
Spoiler:
In post 193, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Flavia
In post 9, Flavia wrote:
In post 7, Star Power wrote:Hello everyone! I am here, ready to be a shining light against the delegation!

VOTE: DeasVail
VOTE: Star Power

I hate shining lights. Always being deceptive.
Shading a slot which seems likely to become unpopular. Projection.
In post 13, Flavia wrote:
In post 12, DeasVail wrote:Hello! To make up for all the votes in Frog’s post, I will not vote.
Letting him take over all the votes? Opposition politician role?
A useless question in an effort to appear solvey. Low key pocketing vibes toward Dease.
In post 40, Flavia wrote:
In post 37, The Bombay wrote:
In post 10, Kokabiel wrote:
In post 7, Star Power wrote:Hello everyone! I am here, ready to be a shining light against the delegation!

VOTE: DeasVail
JUST the delegation?
I am kind of thinking that StarPower appearing to not know that there is a 3rd party makes them more likely to be town.

Seriously doubt that the actual 3rd party would not be too self-conscious to frame it that way, so imo town>scum>3rd party
But mafia can't collaborate with the 3rd party in this game. Everybody losses. So, makes sense mafia would be as interested in this 3rd party as the town. Or not that interested yet as the game just started.
Insight into Flavia's point of view: they think a lot about scum win con and not much else.
In post 57, Flavia wrote:
In post 55, Passenger wrote:
In post 50, Bell wrote:
In post 49, DeasVail wrote:I'm trying to make posts made so far AI in my head, but I'm not really coming up with much.
Must be scum out of ideas.
This is also what I thought. It seems like DeasVail is playing from the point of view of someone who is looking over posts with a checklist of tells to appear useful, rather than engaging in actual solving.

VOTE: DeasVail
Maybe but why them specifically over hmm...basically everyone else, excluding Bombay and maybe Bell. Rest of us weren't exactly overtly solving stuff.

PS: I'm taking frogsterking's readings on page 1 as a joke, not them being serious
Low key pocketing vibes toward Dease, pointlessly listing players in the game (seemingly...), TMI into the gamestate.

As for their comment about me:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... 8.2B1.0.29
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... 8.2B1.0.29

Two scumtells in one. Discrediting a player who is aggressively solving as well as discrediting an argument against them by claiming it to be a joke. Empirically I can also say that no Town has ever reacted to me by assuming that I'm "joking" and on more than one occasion scum have pretended to interpret me to be "joking." Trolling, bizarre, weird, off-color, scum, "toxic" etc. are all responses I've recieved from Town, "joking" is not one of them. I can't provide direct evidence at this time as per site rules so you will have to take my word for it that to claim my first post was a joke is an example of an unnatural thought process which is likely to come from scum.
In post 103, Flavia wrote:
In post 44, The Bombay wrote:
This feels like you misunderstood. My point was that the mafia would be
more
cognizant of the existence of the 3rd party, while StarPower's post reads like someone who was not thinking about the existence of a 3rd party.

Therefore, town being the most likely alignment to make such a post.

Not the basis for a strong read, but as far as page 1 posts go, it is nice to have an inkling on someone

~Luke
OK, I see where you come from.
In post 59, Passenger wrote: The difference between DeasVail and the people who have been posting but not DeasVail is two things.

1. The fact that DeasVail posted about his inability to solve. This shows that DeasVail is scum concerned whether people believe he is solving or not. Statistically this has proven to be a weak but >rand tell.

2. The content of his post. He says that he’s trying to make posts AI in his head, but can’t. Scum when out of ideas tries to do exactly that: look at posts and see if they follow a list of common tells, rather than organically notice a post and realize that it follows a tell, which town does. I suppose the gist of what I’m saying is that DeasVail is scum trying to find reads by creating thought processes, meanwhile town finds reads not by creating thought processes but by simply having those thought processes.
OK, did post 74 change your read?

Ah, psychoanalysis...not my favorite but what can you do?
Low key pocketing vibes toward Bombay as well as Passenger and more shading the scary Resident who is trying to solve the game. Very useless question directed toward Passenger about 74, remember "a question a day keeps the tracker away." https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... 8.2B0.5.29

If you don't believe me, keep reading this post and tell me how much you think Flavia thought about the answer to their question about 74.
In post 109, Flavia wrote:Well, might seem so but ignoring isn't the best word to use. Reserving judgement till I can come to a conclusion.

You think so? Thing is Bell made one statement about DeasVail being scum out of ideas. Passenger asks a question about what means to make AI posts in their head. Next post, votes expanding on Bell's reasoning. I'm actually interested how things...change. If they do.

See no reason to lie about you liking psychoanalysis. I mean, lots of people do. Just not my liking...all those associations. Never believed in them
Taking a reserved and cautious approach is a scum tell for most players. Quibbling over semantics is scummy. Summarizing what happened in the game (and reminding us that there are other players in the game by listing their names again) without any attempt to parse for alignment information is scummy. The bit at the end about psychoanalysis is pointless jabber which seems pockety toward anyone willing to listen.
In post 115, Flavia wrote:On page 5? Sorry, I'm not clairvoyant, mafia or really a good player. You'll get what I can think of now:

The Bombay: liked post 44, though I can really say I agree with that logics. Seems solvey. Maybe, maybe town.
Oh, I think the whole vote stuff about that vote is just playing Freud. Starting a random wagon might not be very efficient but it seems as much as I've read on this site to be a very used tactic.

Kokabiel: post 47- hmm, maybe they believe they've seen something but the way I see "a cigar is just a cigar". Don't get what scum-DeasVale would get from asking to join a vote that as far as I can tell is pretty much random. Basically, they either are trying to solve but I am not getting the logic or trying to find a reason to vote someone. Not sure yet.

Andresvmp- Post 94 has some logic. Granted, pretty non-committed but it was was page 3 or 4.

Furtiveglance- person who claimed miller. Suppose for the moment we can't disbelieve this claim.

DeasVail- so, I guess he tries to find town. Which is logical. No idea why you'd have a list so early. You might be contagious.

You- post 11. Reason I took it as a joke is that well, IMHO, anyone who can say who is mafia/town based on 1 post is either mafia or should work for FBI. Post 66- you really think two experienced mafia players couldn't make that interaction? Other than intuition why it couldn't be SvS? Post 87 is logical question, though didn't see Johnny post any reason to be suspicious of DeasVail? rest is mostly you knowing the whole mafia team is stuff and being overly assertive.

Passenger- told you why I found some posts...worrying.

The rest are the rest. No real idea.
My alleged "psychoanalysis" indicates Flavia is the type of player who doesn't feel confident in faking SvS interactions or making up reads on scum buddies. I think almost all of the above are Town, if not all. I also don't think Flavia has interacted with their partners very much if at all. My "pychoanalysis" extends deeper however; Flavia
feels isolated
and Flavia
is the most active groupscum.


Also, if you want to know what a Town response looks like, try this:
In post 99, Herta wrote:
In post 79, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 26, Herta wrote:Softclaim present.

VOTE: johnny
In post 27, Herta wrote:
In post 7, Star Power wrote:Hello everyone! I am here, ready to be a shining light against the delegation!

VOTE: DeasVail
I'm gonna need coffee.
Time's up, Herta. I need you to stop thread flaking and write a reads list now.
Rude.
In post 100, Herta wrote:Marci is town.

or sometimes this:
In post 336, Rad wrote:
In post 296, Frogsterking wrote:I'm waiting to hear more from you about your own reads, Rad.
Sure. I'm leaning town on a few people. Off The Hook. PenguinPower. Pooky. Nothing specific about them, just some early vibes that I don't weigh too heavily but they are there.

Lean scum on The toad. I think is reading too deeply into my question. I could only come up with 2 good explanations as noted in , and I'm leaning towards the scum read.

No other real reads atm. I think Lukewarm has given enough good content to come to a reasonable early read, which I might go do now. Most people are still joking around so it's hard to tell what's what yet. Also this is such a huge game I don't even know how to approach it. I think the wagon on Ceph was interesting but not sure what I can get out of it yet.
I'd stake my life on the fact that #115 from Flavia is horseshit which was improvised on the spot.
In post 133, Flavia wrote:Random or serious?
"A question a day keeps the tracker away." Remember to continue reading for Flavia's follow up to their questions in and .
In post 160, Flavia wrote:
In post 135, Passenger wrote: This doesn’t make sense, because Marci’s vote was clearly RVS. From this incorrect premise Kokabiel comes to the logical conclusion that Frogster is town and DeasVail is scum. Her assumption that Marci is scum for her naked vote is an NAI overreaction.
Do you agree with that logic or are you saying is making sense based on Kokabiel logic. Cuz I'm not seeing it.


Also, the miller claim. Never played with one. But from what I've read, it's basically a claim that's usually treated as "consider it true for the moment cuz we can't really disprove it". That's why I don't see much in Bell's reaction- said that it could be totally true, but could come from either town or mafia who played with a miller.
"A question a day keeps the tracker away." Now we have a question in to stay mindful for the follow up as well. Here they go bringing up Bell again. Why? Why do they keep reminding us Bell exists in the game? Do they think his posts can be viewed as scummy and they're hoping we will all suddenly notice and miselim him?
In post 162, Flavia wrote:
In post 155, Frogsterking wrote:If partner equity is going to become a theme, I'd like to propose Passenger has partner equity with N.Y.M and Flavia. When players are hyper accurate (like I
sometimes
am on D1) it can force scum to make scumtells they wouldn't ordinarily make (like chainsawing.) I can link to you at least one completed game where scum were forced to react this way to me. looks... unnatural to me? It pings me in a way Passenger's posting hasn't done yet. I feel there can be an element of projection in it where Passenger accuses me of approaching other slots in bad faith while they themselves manufacture a case by misrepresenting my motivations.

I'll admit Koko was a part of my team solve I mentioned earlier, but now with more information (from their wagon piling on) I feel their reaction to pressure is more indicative of a Resident who is wrongly accused.

Also yes I may as well out my team solve is N.Y.M/Flavia/Passenger, it was previously N.Y.M/Flavia/Koko.

My opinion is that there is an element of Price's Law at play, where Flavia and N.Y.M are abandoning thread control and Passenger feels motivated to take up the reigns as a more active scum poster.

I'll wait a little bit longer before I get into my ideas about hunting for the Dictator.

If it becomes a theme- maybe I should figure it out what this partner equity is.

And you've figured it out I'm mafia all the while back. Your confidence is impressive...though very wrong. But I'm really curious...how did NYM got into that team. And when did we abandon threat control when I posted very little and NYM posted- exactly once.
Low key pocketing vibes toward me, mistaking me for a mere frog who will flip their read because I got a little attention (I am not a frog, I am both a frogster and a king.) Playing dumb pretending not to understand the concept partner equity refers to even though it's immediately obvious that it refers to associative tells is an example of a unnatural thought process which is more likely from scum.

I have some empirical evidence is more likely to come from scum which I can share as per site rules but I am getting burnt out so I will save the rest of my analysis of this post, the one below and my conclusion for another time.
In post 169, Flavia wrote:
In post 163, The Bombay wrote: It makes it feel like she wanted to make a comment on *something*
~Luke
That part might be true. I try to talk more.

Maybe, but it was an observation related to my question to furtive.

Current discussion? Well, I am here: Kokabiel is convinced asking for votes on them is scum. Plus the whole inviting vs invited being a sign of town/mafia. Nope, don't agree with this logic but I don't think mafia would be so willing to put it all on that hill.

Frog- they made it clear they scumread me from the beginning. I was sincerely curious how they came to the conclusion the team is me/Passenger and the person who posted once.


#3 I clarify here:
In post 197, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 196, N.Y. M wrote:So you can continue to wrongly push me and look stupid doing so, up to you. I can’t bus anyone because I’m town and if you knew a damn thing about my meta, you would know that I don’t have sr’s straight out of the gate in most cases.

I’m taking my fucking time because we have a post cap of only 125 posts with 3 heads. I had 250 in Happy Face and almost had 200 posts in under two rl days.

I will look at your Flavia case but going out of your way to piss me off when you’re apparently being pretty dense here because I once again repeat: I don’t make stuff like that up. Btw, I did check our discord and Mastina should be on tomorrow.
I already know you aren't group scum because of Flavia spew. The problem is you can still be Dictator. These players all get the Flavia-cleared groupscum stamp of approval:


Kokabiel
Dease,
Passenger,
N.Y.M
Bombay
Bell
Myself

This leads me to believe andres is scum with Flavia because:

1) this comment
In post 115, Flavia wrote:Andresvmp- Post 94 has some logic. Granted, pretty non-committed but it was was page 3 or 4.
2) I have played with andres as both alignments and skipping a night after promising to be back is a red flag from andres
In post 95, Andresvmb wrote:Anyway, I’m going to sleep. I’m back tomorrow.
3) andres matches the profile of a lurker slot leaving Flavia to feel isolated in her scum game.

So my current solve for group scum is Flavia/andres and one more player who both has less than eleven posts and isn't excluded in the list above. The players who meet both of these criteria are:

Herta
Furtive
Penguin
Starpower

Now if I sheep Nancy and Bell's Townread on Furtive, I assume Flavia isn't aligned with Star because of their first post, and I give some lenience to Herta because they clapped back at me in a Townie way when I demanded reads from them, that leaves me with this team solve:

Flavia/andres/Penguin
#4 Passenger, who is playing reactively and survivalistically, is concerned only with the fact their name appeared in a team solve all the way back at point #1
In post 241, Passenger wrote:
In post 235, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 234, Passenger wrote:
In post 172, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 170, furtiveglance wrote:I townread Passenger
Congrats, you have now ensured your survival to endgame.

(I'm half-joking, you may be right for all I know, it feels a little presumptive to me though)
Let me get this straight. furtive’s townread on me is presumptive, but your team solve with me in it is not presumptive?
You aren't in my team solve. *snap snap* sharpen up.
I was definitely in your team solve when you made that post.
The above is a scumtell.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
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N.Y. M
N.Y. M
They
Townie
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Joined: November 3, 2022
Pronoun: They

Post Post #302 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:50 pm

Post by N.Y. M »

Okay we might be hitting that post count limit because I am immediately disregarding my own fucking stance of only engaging if I feel I have to or if directly asked to directly do so. :P
In post 298, Frogsterking wrote:I don't know mastina well enough to know if they are unwilling to learn from past mistakes.
I do learn! But I don't have eidetic memory. Simply put, I haven't played with you enough to have a good foundation for you. A single, minor, past mistake that was mostly not notable in part for how shortly it lasted, ain't gonna magically make me able to know you.

I was dayvigged early into TFT uPick and while I thought you scum even from the grave initially, my stance there shifted and was ultimately irrelevant given you died shortly after me anyway.

I didn't get a chance to properly have a wrong push on you. And I learn from
pushes
I perform, not from reads made from a distance. While I was keeping up with TFT from the dead, and trying to solve up to a point, my lack of ability to actually push/engage the town/etc. means that simply put: I have no memory of what happened that game. (I have shit memory on the best of days tbh.)

It's only when I have something very strong happen that things become memorable. Memorably getting a read wrong, memorably getting a read right, both of those I remember and learn from and my mistakes are learned from those.

But simply put:
You were forgettable.

You aren't nearly as memorable as you seem to think you are.

Maybe you can become so, but so far, you hadn't been.
You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.

It's a lot of them.

Now, granted.

I've always been insistent on "do as I say, not as I do"; if I listened to all of my own MD advice I'd be a far better player than I actually am. :P
It's hard for me to actually do the things I say you should do as town, so I can't pull them off.

Also granted!
The articles are all fairly old--while I say they are largely timeless, not all of their advice is applicable. Much of it is cyclical, depending on the current town meta. And there's some that's just outright outdated. Plus, many were poorly written, with a few that are memes, and the ideas behind them were never properly fleshed out.

And, granted!

My philosophy as a player has shifted a lot;
my current philosophy is the philosophy of the "push strongly, and never stop pushing"--I never wrote my article on this, but it is essentially what I call "the ideal of mastina", which is the idea that by me being me, making exaggerated pushes of high strength and pushing them hard, it is pro-town even, or arguably especially, when I am wrong, because those engagements generate content that make it harder for the scum to win the game.

That short-term, you might get TvT fights and even eliminate town who arguably should not have been eliminated, but that the process of the hard push still guides the game in a direction that is highly, innately, pro-town. That, counterintuitive as it seems, all those strong TvT pushes actually make it easier for the town to win, because when handled appropriately, it allows for the town to form proper information networks where the revelation of the alignments involved in certain areas basically blows the entire game wide open. Where once one or two key players have their alignment revealed, the previous hard pushes spew the entire game's players' alignments.

That philosophy is one which, objectively, is inferior to a more objective/reasonable/logical approach.

But, somehow, it still produces good results. Even--and arguably,
especially
when I am wrong--the strong pushes I make can help make the town at some point just
click
, in ways that make it hard for scum to win.

It might seem arrogant to say that a strong wrong push from me helps the town more than a more reserved right push would--but I strongly and firmly believe that, by and large, it DOES. I am okay with being the player with the worst reads in the game; I am okay with, in spite of having terrible reads, believing that my reads are great and pushing off of that. I am okay with not getting the credit for what I did; I am okay with players believing that the town won in spite of me, not because of me.

But, while the town might think that my strong pushes on town mean that they won in spite of me not because of me, I genuinely believe that those wrong pushes actually ARE vital to the town's wins in those games. It is usually not in the most obvious of ways. For instance, in Datisi's cafe I was wrong on basically everything. But I still feel my pushes were vital to the town's win there. Ydrasse became conftown by guiltying Titus in a way she could not have achieved otherwise.
I managed to force fireisredsir to lock in a claim that eventually got him killed by the serial killer--he very much didn't want to make that claim, but felt forced into making it off of my push that I had a guilty on him. And it got him killed, which in turn eliminated the last groupscum from the game, making furtiveglance be boxed in.
I managed to get nightkilled by fireisredsir, and the nightkill on me looked like it was made by furtiveglance, which helped get furtiveglance eliminated in the end.
And beyond that, Dannflor was one of the final candidates for being a final scum, but I feel like Dannflor was seen as more town in part because of the way he had handled things the entire game, which I was a significant contribution to; Dannflor was forced to put up with my bullshit, and the way that Dannflor dealt with my bullshit didn't just spew him as not groupscum but also spewed him as being just town.
Among others.

Could the town have still won without all of that? Well, being honest with myself: yeah, probably. These things might've still happened without my strong wrong pushes. But we can never really know what would have happened without the strong pushes, what we know is what happened with the strong pushes and the town won that game with those things being contributing factors to it. The town from there will probably say it was in spite of me not because of me and that I am delusional for saying what I did helped them win. And I am okay with that, because I am at peace with the flaws behind my chosen current philosophy of play.
I will always need to acknowledge all the areas I fuck up in. I make it a point to, unless I am explaining this philosophy like I am right now, not actually claim credit for the things, even if I feel like credit should be given for the effect I have on games. I am a facilitator of activity. I am an amplifier of activity.
Games are more active with me in them, than with me not in them. (Most of the record-breaking games have me in them, and that is not a coincidence.) In spite of me never being the top poster in them! I'm usually barely in the top-50%, in the ~25-33% range. There's like 5-8 players whose activity exceeds mine in games. Yet every game in which I die in, there is an IMMEDIATE drop in activity the next phase. Literally every single game I am in.

I don't think that's coincidence. You'd expect drops in activity when there are less players alive in any game, but in games I am in where I live, game activity really
does
seem to mostly stay constant in spite of the dwindling number of living players--until the phase I die. After which, it plummets off a cliff. And I don't think it's arrogance to say that's a direct result of my presence in the game and the affect having me around and pushing has on player activity. I make people post more, I make them engage more, just by living to the mastina ideal.

I'm aware it won't be appreciated by the players. I'm aware they see me as annoying, frustrating, and anti-town. Delusional. Arrogant. I am aware they think I deserve no credit for their wins, that they believe the town won in spite of me. I am aware I need to constantly acknowledge all of my fuckups and that I have very little in the way of tangible definitive proof that demonstrates that I did actually help the town. The only way there would ever be proof of me being right would be if we could view alternative realities where I didn't do what I did and see how the town fared in those games compared to the one in our reality. Since that's impossible, my value to towns is speculative. I speculate it is tangibly a notably good thing, just not a thing I can point to being good. So I recognize that others who believe my speculation to be wrong, will think that I am less than worthless. That my prior articles had a superior playstyle, that what I was doing in the old days was more effective and that the current mastina is just trash that drags games down.

But I stick by my beliefs in the philosophy of conviction. I have conviction in my conviction.

ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY,

You can link to your own MD theory, but so can I.

On D1, especially this early, there
is
no established townbloc to be paranoid of. There IS no establishment of how the town are acting and how the scum are acting. There isn't any idea of what the town are doing and what the scum are doing. So there is no reason to not speak openly about your thoughts.

If this were D3 and the town was doing well and you were a large contributing factor to that, Frogsterking, you would be quite correct; saying "I think Frogsterking is bussing" would be actively harmful to the game.

But it is not D3 with the town doing well.

It is D1 with the game still early.

And,
In post 247, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Passenger
You explicitly pivoted
away
from Flavia.

You pivoted away from voting the read that I think is right,
Onto a read that is more of a tossup and a less surefire thing that I currently lean town on (albeit weakly so).

Objectively, why
shouldn't
I think your Flavia push was distancing?

You literally wrote up a case for why Flavia is scum, and
abandoned
the case to chase after Passenger instead.

Your entire argument would be valid if you were still actively pushing Flavia, but you are actively pushing AWAY from Flavia.

That means that, actually, yes.

You DO look like scum distancing.
In post 298, Frogsterking wrote:Yes mastina, gogo, get that scummy frog. If I post a case it's because I'm bussing and know it will make me look good, if I don't post a case it's because I'm scum who hasn't thought about my reads. Excellent deductions.
This would be valid if you actually stuck to Flavia and/or we were later into the game.

But to reiterate.

We are in the early stages of D1.

And you pivoted away from the Flavia case you wrote.

Why shouldn't I, with my suspicion of Flavia, think that you writing a good case on Flavia and then discarding it when Flavia is gaining momentum to push elsewhere, is you distancing Flavia but avoiding committing to the hard bus?

What makes that be an unreasonable and paranoia-based conclusion? That you know your alignment and know it's not true?

Well newsflash, I don't, so I am going to call it like I see it.

Could you be town who simply decided to focus elsewhere?

Well, yes!

But there's no reason for you to get over-defensive about the callout which, contrary to your assertions, is actually a perfectly reasonable one to make in this gamestate.

-mastina
(gotta go, I know there's more recent posts but I wasn't meant to make even this one but I couldn't not comment on it, sorry)
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:51 pm

Post by JohnnyFarrar »

Man and I thought I would be in trouble with this post count limit
Phone posting. Low effort, big fun.
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:59 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:my stance there shifted and was ultimately irrelevant given you died shortly after me anyway.
...my player slot was combined with Titus and turned into a mod-given Hydra called "Legends" who proceeded to eliminate scum D1 and absorb 4 consecutive dayvig shots from the scum team. If you are telling the truth and this was a banal series of events to you--DOUBT--then sign me up for whatever games you have been playing please.
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:02 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:And you pivoted away from the Flavia case you wrote.

Why shouldn't I, with my suspicion of Flavia, think that you writing a good case on Flavia and then discarding it when Flavia is gaining momentum to push elsewhere, is you distancing Flavia but avoiding committing to the hard bus?
Because that's the dumbest scum play I've ever heard and makes no sense whatsoever from an Informed perspective?
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:06 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 305, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:And you pivoted away from the Flavia case you wrote.

Why shouldn't I, with my suspicion of Flavia, think that you writing a good case on Flavia and then discarding it when Flavia is gaining momentum to push elsewhere, is you distancing Flavia but avoiding committing to the hard bus?
Because that's the dumbest scum play I've ever heard and makes no sense whatsoever from an Informed perspective?
Flavia was the largest wagon at 4 votes when I decided to push Passenger and Kookaburra hadn't even joined yet. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard :lol:

I think the N.Y.M slot is probably scum here :lol:

Well played mastina, you had me going for a second after I read your first post.
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:14 pm

Post by RH »


Day 1 Count V

Notes
  • My mod ISO is here.
  • The Bombay and Herta are V/LA until Monday.
  • I'm pretty sure Penguin is on weekend V/LA but I'll doublecheck.
  • If I missed any other V/LAs, let me know.
  • With 14 remaining, it takes 8 to form a majority.
The
Day
concludes in (expired on 2022-11-16 17:00:00).

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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:16 pm

Post by PenguinPower »

VOTE: flavia
<(") | (")>
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You DO look like scum distancing.
In post 88, Andresvmb wrote:Hey all. It’s good to be here. I’ll do a quick read, catch up, and put a preliminary vote down. Once I’ve done that, I’ll go to sleep. Expect more from me tomorrow.
In post 92, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 86, Kokabiel wrote:VOTE: Bombay
VOTE: Passenger
In post 93, Andresvmb wrote:^I didn’t mean to quote that post. It’s irrelevant to the vote.
In post 94, Andresvmb wrote: is over-explainy. Which is the only reason I’m putting this vote down. I’m not buying Scum enters the thread and basically says I can’t find ways to contribute. I would probably spam or act silly before I admit that I am not actively contributing to solving. That’s my perspective so obviously won’t apply across the board. But that’s all I got. So I think Passenger is trying to justify a vote with too many words when there’s no way you can make that long a case about anyone.
In post 95, Andresvmb wrote:Anyway, I’m going to sleep. I’m back tomorrow.
K
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:38 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

I don't believe that

1) mastina is pushing me because they actually think I'm distancing from Flavia.
2) the TfT game is so forgettable they can barely remember it.
3) is a Town post. It seems to be written mostly about things unrelated to the game in a way that scum do when they aren't sure what to say.

I think it's more likely that the scum team is something like N.Y.M/Passenger/andres and I've scared them sufficiently enough by including their names in my solves that they feel compelled to attack my slot.

@andres
if I'm wrongly accusing you again I'm sorry but if you look at your ISO you can see why I would be suspicious that you're distancing from Passenger.
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:42 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.
"Biasing Yourself
There is basically no situation where you are doing yourself a favor by arbitrarily assuming something must be true, because of whatever factor. This player must be town because that player is totally scum. This player must be scum because they are the only unflipped player on that wagon. Things like this, you want to avoid. You cannot make progress if you are discarding evidence to fit a preexisting presumption.


You can make notes: “this fight doesn’t seem town-town” would conflict with “I am townreading both participants”, sure enough. But how do you know which is the right conclusion? You cannot out-of-hand arbitrarily assume one is correct and immediately throw out the other. So instead of blindly forcing these conclusions, reason it out and find which is more likely to be true. Resolve conflicting data by looking closer at both sides, not by looking at only one side."

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... g_Yourself

Gotcha. Very believable scum play. Psh
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:47 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 311, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.
"Biasing Yourself
There is basically no situation where you are doing yourself a favor by arbitrarily assuming something must be true, because of whatever factor. This player must be town because that player is totally scum. This player must be scum because they are the only unflipped player on that wagon. Things like this, you want to avoid. You cannot make progress if you are discarding evidence to fit a preexisting presumption.


You can make notes: “this fight doesn’t seem town-town” would conflict with “I am townreading both participants”, sure enough. But how do you know which is the right conclusion? You cannot out-of-hand arbitrarily assume one is correct and immediately throw out the other. So instead of blindly forcing these conclusions, reason it out and find which is more likely to be true. Resolve conflicting data by looking closer at both sides, not by looking at only one side."

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... g_Yourself

Gotcha. Very believable scum play. Psh
In post 296, N.Y. M wrote:Continuing on:
I realize that Frogsterking actually does vote Flavia here, with a case no less, but tbh, it kinda feels like a bus tone-wise. It feels like Frogsterking is using logic he knows is good to make a push he knows is good, but that he isn't actually invested in the push because he is making it to be performative.

I'll admit I could be wrong, he could be town casing scum, or scum making a hollow push on town.

But gutwise he looks like scum distancing.
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:Objectively, why shouldn't I think your Flavia push was distancing?

You literally wrote up a case for why Flavia is scum, and abandoned the case to chase after Passenger instead.
In post 311, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.
"Biasing Yourself
There is basically no situation where you are doing yourself a favor by arbitrarily assuming something must be true, because of whatever factor. This player must be town because that player is totally scum. This player must be scum because they are the only unflipped player on that wagon. Things like this, you want to avoid. You cannot make progress if you are discarding evidence to fit a preexisting presumption.


You can make notes: “this fight doesn’t seem town-town” would conflict with “I am townreading both participants”, sure enough. But how do you know which is the right conclusion? You cannot out-of-hand arbitrarily assume one is correct and immediately throw out the other. So instead of blindly forcing these conclusions, reason it out and find which is more likely to be true. Resolve conflicting data by looking closer at both sides, not by looking at only one side."

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... g_Yourself

Gotcha. Very believable scum play. Psh
In post 296, N.Y. M wrote:Continuing on:
I realize that Frogsterking actually does vote Flavia here, with a case no less, but tbh, it kinda feels like a bus tone-wise. It feels like Frogsterking is using logic he knows is good to make a push he knows is good, but that he isn't actually invested in the push because he is making it to be performative.

I'll admit I could be wrong, he could be town casing scum, or scum making a hollow push on town.

But gutwise he looks like scum distancing.
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:Objectively, why shouldn't I think your Flavia push was distancing?

You literally wrote up a case for why Flavia is scum, and abandoned the case to chase after Passenger instead.
In post 311, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.
"Biasing Yourself
There is basically no situation where you are doing yourself a favor by arbitrarily assuming something must be true, because of whatever factor. This player must be town because that player is totally scum. This player must be scum because they are the only unflipped player on that wagon. Things like this, you want to avoid. You cannot make progress if you are discarding evidence to fit a preexisting presumption.


You can make notes: “this fight doesn’t seem town-town” would conflict with “I am townreading both participants”, sure enough. But how do you know which is the right conclusion? You cannot out-of-hand arbitrarily assume one is correct and immediately throw out the other. So instead of blindly forcing these conclusions, reason it out and find which is more likely to be true. Resolve conflicting data by looking closer at both sides, not by looking at only one side."

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... g_Yourself

Gotcha. Very believable scum play. Psh
In post 296, N.Y. M wrote:Continuing on:
I realize that Frogsterking actually does vote Flavia here, with a case no less, but tbh, it kinda feels like a bus tone-wise. It feels like Frogsterking is using logic he knows is good to make a push he knows is good, but that he isn't actually invested in the push because he is making it to be performative.

I'll admit I could be wrong, he could be town casing scum, or scum making a hollow push on town.

But gutwise he looks like scum distancing.
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:Objectively, why shouldn't I think your Flavia push was distancing?

You literally wrote up a case for why Flavia is scum, and abandoned the case to chase after Passenger instead.
In post 311, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:You're not the only one who can link to mafia theory, mate. Take a look at here and see how many of those I wrote.
And how many I wrote on townplay.
"Biasing Yourself
There is basically no situation where you are doing yourself a favor by arbitrarily assuming something must be true, because of whatever factor. This player must be town because that player is totally scum. This player must be scum because they are the only unflipped player on that wagon. Things like this, you want to avoid. You cannot make progress if you are discarding evidence to fit a preexisting presumption.


You can make notes: “this fight doesn’t seem town-town” would conflict with “I am townreading both participants”, sure enough. But how do you know which is the right conclusion? You cannot out-of-hand arbitrarily assume one is correct and immediately throw out the other. So instead of blindly forcing these conclusions, reason it out and find which is more likely to be true. Resolve conflicting data by looking closer at both sides, not by looking at only one side."

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... g_Yourself

Gotcha. Very believable scum play. Psh
In post 296, N.Y. M wrote:Continuing on:
I realize that Frogsterking actually does vote Flavia here, with a case no less, but tbh, it kinda feels like a bus tone-wise. It feels like Frogsterking is using logic he knows is good to make a push he knows is good, but that he isn't actually invested in the push because he is making it to be performative.

I'll admit I could be wrong, he could be town casing scum, or scum making a hollow push on town.

But gutwise he looks like scum distancing.
In post 302, N.Y. M wrote:Objectively, why shouldn't I think your Flavia push was distancing?

You literally wrote up a case for why Flavia is scum, and abandoned the case to chase after Passenger instead.
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:51 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

@mastina

In post 279, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 274, Passenger wrote:I was white-knighting Kokabiel and Flavia… but you also said earlier
Nah my read trajectory on you makes sense, re-evaluating is Townie and being too consistent is a scum tell. My read changed on you because I'm uninformed so it takes me longer than you to figure out what's going on. Like I said, this is really vanilla BnB scum whining your putting out, I need something spicier if I'm expected to pay attention to your complaints.
In the case the irony in is lost on you.
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:55 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

@everyone
In post 111, Frogsterking wrote:@Kookaburra I'm not as confident in my read on you as the other two, fwiw #110 at least is more likely to come from a Resident. I'll let others decide if our interactions look TvT or not.
Same thing now with N.Y.M. If it looks like a TvT thunderdome then intervene.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:22 pm

Post by JohnnyFarrar »

Speaking personally I've opened this thread like 4 times today and had a "not my monkeys, not my circus" moment, which is bad because this kind of IS my circus, you know?

But y'all are making it hard to engage
Phone posting. Low effort, big fun.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:29 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 315, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Speaking personally I've opened this thread like 4 times today and had a "not my monkeys, not my circus" moment, which is bad because this kind of IS my circus, you know?

But y'all are making it hard to engage
I'm going to have to stop posting so much anyway because of the cap. At least I am trying. Complaining while not doing much, which you are doing, doesn't really help anything. Are you saying it's more likely that mastina and I are ignorant townies butting into each other? Or are you just complaining?
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:33 pm

Post by JohnnyFarrar »

I haven't read enough to say one way or the other. I'm just complainin'
Phone posting. Low effort, big fun.
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:36 pm

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 317, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I haven't read enough to say one way or the other. I'm just complainin'
Okay well my activity will be condensed down into a few posts a day going forward so it should be easier for you to engage.
In post 188, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I love that part in Hercules where some of the hydra heads just fuck off and get lattés
I thought this was funny by the way.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:56 pm

Post by Herta »

VOTE: unvote
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:36 pm

Post by N.Y. M »

In post 284, Kokabiel wrote:It's a Moonlight dancer with an additional on-death trigger, and no it's sadly not a vengeful.
I claimed and gave out my reads so there is no info you can get from me apart from the flip. So y'all useless lazy town without any reads better start working. 4 Days remaining, you can always come back to finish the job.
I’m leaning to probably town on this. Btw Frogs, if you’re going to continue wrongly push us, I sadly won’t be able to trust the rest of your reads, so smarten tf up if you want our help.

I haven’t yet caught up since yesterday so I will review and @furtive not naked vote, though it may appear that way due to the stupid post count thing.

We are a hydra and our reads aren’t all in agreement. I told Mastina in our discord that you were one of my top townreads but if enough time passes and you don’t realize we’re town when you read me correctly in LOST, Elected Decisions and eventually in Masque, I may possibly lose confidence in that.

It’s maybe a weakness in my solve but when slots that claim to be good at scumhunting and I know you can be continue to wrongly read me, I ultimately lose faith in their solve. Do better.

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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:57 pm

Post by N.Y. M »

In post 135, Passenger wrote:
Spoiler:
Breaking down this interaction:
Post 1

Kokabiel says Marci’s vote on her is scummy.
Kokabiel says Marci asking Frogster to join the wagon is towny for Frogster.
Kokabiel says DeasVail inviting himself onto the wagon is scummy for DeasVail.
Post 2

Frogster asks why DeasVail is scummier than him, because they did the same thing.
Frogster says that Kokabiel is trying to start a TvT fight between DeasVail and Johnny
Post 3

Kokabiel asks Frogster why he claims that she faked her evaluation.
Kokabiel asks Frogster why he never asked Marci why she faked her read on her.
Post 4

Frogster asks Kokabiel why he would ask Marci why she voted Kokabiel.
Frogster asks Kokabiel why DeasVail inviting himself on the wagon is scummy.
Frogster asks Kokabiel why she disagrees with Johnny’s case on DeasVail.
Frogster asks Kokabiel why she is asking him questions.


My Analysis:

Kokabiel scumreads Marci because Marci’s vote on her was a naked vote with no explanation. This doesn’t make sense, because Marci’s vote was clearly RVS. From this incorrect premise Kokabiel comes to the logical conclusion that Frogster is town and DeasVail is scum. Her assumption that Marci is scum for her naked vote is an NAI overreaction.

Frogster does not understand both Kokabiel’s premise and her logic, and thinks she must be trying to start a fight between DeasVail and Johnny. This point is invalid because her premise is wrong but NAI and her logic is correct. Frogster is scummy for this post because he assumes that because he doesn’t understand something, it must be scummy. If he was trying to engage with her in good faith he would have waited for her answer.


Kokabiel correctly points out Frogster’s leap of “I don’t understand” to “this is scum.” Frogster responds by asking Kokabiel questions she has already answered and then he asks her what she intends to achieve by asking him questions. Frogster also says that he will always scumread things he doesn’t understand.

By this point, Frogster has conceded he engaged in scummy behavior, and all of his reasons for Kokabiel being scum are invalid because of that.
VOTE: Frogster
I dislike this post, Passenger seems to be basically treating Frogs like he’s town but nevertheless reaching the conclusion that he’s scum. This analysis makes no sense. and the logical conclusion from this premise logically ought to be Frogs is incorrect in his analysis as opposed to being scum.

VOTE: Passenger

~Nancy
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:21 pm

Post by Herta »

But why move off of Flavia? After Mastina just endorsed your vote?
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:38 pm

Post by N.Y. M »

In post 307, RH wrote:

Day 1 Count V

Notes
  • My mod ISO is here.
  • The Bombay and Herta are V/LA until Monday.
  • I'm pretty sure Penguin is on weekend V/LA but I'll doublecheck.
  • If I missed any other V/LAs, let me know.
  • With 14 remaining, it takes 8 to form a majority.
The
Day
concludes in (expired on 2022-11-16 17:00:00).

I don’t understand Herta, you aren’t voting there? I could switch my vote back to her but I really disliked that posts and there are others, like Pqssenger sr furtive for claiming “the” miller”. In OMB, I recall scum!Gamma sr a slot due to something like that. Hyperfocusing on things like that are something scum is more likely to do where as town tends not to really pay too much attention to things like that.
In post 30, Passenger wrote:
In post 15, furtiveglance wrote:Hi everyone. I'm the Miller
Is this TMI? furtive says that he is
the
miller, as opposed to just a miller. This suggests that he knows there is no miller in the game, thus suggesting that killer is a fakeclaim he was given by the mod.
I read that claim and didn’t even notice the “the”. It’s just seems bizarre how he came up with this analysis from that. Had he just asked furtive why the “the”, I probably wouldn’t think much of it.

But if you were currently voting Flavia and not Passenger, your question would make way more sense to me as you clearly prefer Passenger to Flavia, so I’m really confused now?

Mastina wants to vote Frogs and I definitely disagree with that. I don’t really have enough of a read on Johnny yet to pursue that one way or the other.

~Nancy
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:25 pm

Post by Herta »

Actually I was thinking about going back to Flavia. It occurred to me that I may have been blindly following Frogster on Passenger. On someone else too I don't recall right now. I didn't have any agency there. But your moving off of Flavia stuck me.

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