Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50


User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #24 (isolation #0) » Fri Nov 14, 2008 7:29 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Nice to see Raging Rabbit again. I figured you were a done deal after that fiasco between you and Twito.
Well I did take a long hiatus. Sorry for making you replace into such a terrible situation btw, though you did an excellent job as far as I recall.

Vote BM
for backing off a selfvote. Also, he cried for Twito. :P
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #27 (isolation #1) » Fri Nov 14, 2008 7:33 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Voting yourself is kinda like saying "screw useless random votes, I'll start with voting myself for kicks and giggles." Then several joke posts after you switch to obsessive random voting. Doesn't mean much because the self-vote was apparantly a mistake and this being you an' all, but then again you did cry for Twito.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #38 (isolation #2) » Fri Nov 14, 2008 7:46 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Battle Mage wrote:
Raging Rabbit wrote:Voting yourself is kinda like saying "screw useless random votes, I'll start with voting myself for kicks and giggles." Then several joke posts after you switch to obsessive random voting. Doesn't mean much because the self-vote was apparantly a mistake and this being you an' all, but then again you did cry for Twito.
Lol, i dont think that is a reason against self-voting in the early stages. It is just as likely (in fact, moreso) to promote discussion than voting for an individual. Yeh the self-vote was a mistake, but the premise is kinda the same. It's a vote which doesnt affiliate me to anyone directly, but indirectly is far more useful than a random vote.

Twito was a legend. Face facts. :P

BM
Doesn't yield the same sort of information, and from my experience the discussion it creates revolves strictly around theory and meta and doesn't have much to do with the game. I'm not letting this deteriorate into a Twito discussion, you can keep crying your eyes out as far as I'm concerned. Also, you're buddying up to midgets.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #193 (isolation #3) » Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:24 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

vollkan wrote:This game looks set to be great. The list of players is absolutely brilliant.
Raging Rabbit wrote: Doesn't yield the same sort of information, and from my experience the discussion it creates revolves strictly around theory and meta and doesn't have much to do with the game. I'm not letting this deteriorate into a Twito discussion, you can keep crying your eyes out as far as I'm concerned. Also, you're buddying up to midgets.
Vote: Vollkan


Four questions:
1) What "sort of information" does a non-self random vote yield?
2) Can you see any inherent game value in having a theory debate early on?
3) Based on your answers to 1) and 2), do you think self-voting in the random stage can be a reasonable course of conduct?
4) Was your post that I quote above at all influenced by meta actions of myself?
1. I'm not exactly a fan of random votes, but they do form a sort of connection that can be analayzed later.
2. It's something to talk about and could lead to more game-related talk, other than that not really.
3. A better course of action which I sometimes use would be to just not vote and wait for something at least somewhat substantial; but I can't say selfvoting is that unreasonable, and clearly it's not a scumtell or any kind of a tell at all once it becomes a person's meta.
4. Nope. You always selfvote, I take it?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #194 (isolation #4) » Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:31 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Other than that, Korts is giving me a very bad vibe for some reason and BM is giving me a headache and making the noise ratio way too high. Will try to read more into this later.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #201 (isolation #5) » Sat Nov 15, 2008 8:18 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:
RR wrote:Other than that, Korts is giving me a very bad vibe for some reason
Don't I always?
Nope, and certainly not in the first few pages. Still trying to figure out what you're doing different.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #251 (isolation #6) » Sun Nov 16, 2008 8:26 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:Otherwise I feel DGB has been fairly pro-town, but this statement is openly buddying up to rofl.
What makes you read DGB as pro town?

You make some good points about Guardian, but none of them seem like a good justification for a vote other than "staying on the fence about CKD", which I don't think is accurate. Do you consider any of the other points you're discussing with Guardian a scumtell?


Vollkan, I saw a lot of theory discussion in your last post but not an actual explanation of why CKD's gut call is scummy despite him always using gut reads. I see you accusing him of double standards, anything else behind your vote on him?


BM - your votes don't mean whatever you want them to, at this point they represent more or less nothing. I'm actually more interested in who you
didn't
yet vote for.


Unvote, vote Elmo
. I want you to explain how your play here is in any way pro town.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #326 (isolation #7) » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:25 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'll have no access 'till Thursday, see you guys then.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #378 (isolation #8) » Fri Nov 21, 2008 4:46 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm back.

Vollkan, aren't "solidly based" suspicions just as affected by people acting rationally and calmly as pure gut reads, if not moreso? I believe it's easier for experienced/talented scum to look pro town from the rational analyst's point of view than from the gut player's. It's very hard to tell what a solid player's gut read is based on, but there is a form of behavior that's sort of universally considered pro town upon a rational analysis, which is hard to fake, but possible especially early in the game. For example rofl is ranked highest on your scale mostly, it seems to me, because he isn't as good at rationally explaining himself as most of the others are. (That's not to say a rational look at things isn't helpful, or that an empty gut feeling is sustance enough for a lynch, but I believe you're best off intially relaying on your gut for all reads.)

CKD, could you point us to a game where you self voted as town?

Elmo, I get that you didn't have too much to say at that point, but what did you gain by spamming and looking like you intentionally weren't contributing?

BM, are you scum?

I need to reread Korts when I'll have more time, see if there's anything solid behind the bad feeling I have on him. Will keep my vote where it is for the time being.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #433 (isolation #9) » Sat Nov 22, 2008 11:27 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I owe this game some serious catching up, hopefully tomorrow.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #441 (isolation #10) » Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:26 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Ok, read up.

I think CKD's early attack on rofl for buddying up is very unconvincing, but rofl's stance that CKD's scummy for not accepting des as auto town is reaching as well. I can buy CKD's attack as an attempt to justify his gut, and rofl was OMGUSy but is giving me a general town vibe. The whole exchange seems like a disproportioned early game argument. I think it's likely town-town. I don't think CKD self voting under pressure is indicative of much, either, since the exmaple he provided shows it fits his meta. Not really seeing any other merit to the case on him.

I don't think the link yos is trying to achieve between des and CKD holds any merit, and on the whole he comes up looking pretty bad from his exchange with des.
Yos wrote:Also, I find it odd that Korts, Volkan, and Destuctor are all all attacking for my vote on CKD and yet not one has shown the slightest bit of curiosity for why I am voting him.
Here it's bad that people suspected him based on his unexplained vote on CKD and didn't ask what the reasons were (though as was said before, suspicion based on lack of explanation implies interest in said explanation).
Yos wrote:Any reason you're only asking me this now?
When des bluntly asks what the reasons are, per Yos' request, Yos casts that in a questionable light as well.
Yos wrote: :roll:

This is exactally why some people just say "gut", you know. Because whenever you try to explain exactally why you have a bad, scummy feeling about someone's posts, you get attacked for it.

I'm not trying to constuct a "logical case" here, really. I think CKD is scum, and I'm trying to explain what gave me that impression. You can either agree or disagree.
Here in response to Vollkan's vote on on him, suddenly the reasoning for the CKD vote shoud've stayed at "gut" because his attempt to explain his logic got him attacked as well - though in the above quote he was all for explaining this. Very odd that he seems to hold the opposite opinion here, as if the only reason he explained in the first place was to say "I told you it should've statyed at gut."


DGB is acting way wackier than in the former and only other game I played with her, not sure what it means but I tend to see it as more of a scumtell since she's screwing up with everyone's scumdar and isn't doing much at this point to stir discussion. I'd like the people who think she's pro town to explain exactly why.


In addition to my strong gut feeling that he's scum here, Korts isn't doing any real scumhunting - case on Guardian was based on a missrep and Korts fizzled it out, now he's attacking BM who's always a comfortable target, for bad reasons - would BM off Guardian after buddying up to him? That's a giant WIFOM trap, not cause for a vote, and the only other reason I'm seeing is BM possibly missunderstanding rofl's intention, which means a grand total of nothing - as well as probing a ton of other subjects that are noncomittal and distract from his actual "case". Also his explanation for a town read on DGB makes no sense, when BM rightly said that pursuing suspicions (which DGB did in a way I believe she knew would not be taken too seriously) is a null tell, Korts answers:
Korts wrote:Ok, let me elaborate on that gut feel after all. DGBscum doesn't have any motive to be elbows deep in shit while she mimes scumhunting. DGB's actions so far have been pro-town, therefore I have no reason to suspect her. Why are you trying to dig any deeper when what we're discussing is a
town
read on someone?
Where are you seeing DGB elbows deep in shit? Are we even reading the same game? She's under no pressure at all...
The second sentence is a circular argument, and doesn't actually say anything.
Most importantly, your own case on BM is trying to dig deeper into his
town
read on Guardian. I find this inconsistency is very scummy.

Unvote, vote Korts. Fos Yos.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #443 (isolation #11) » Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:50 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

dgb gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. that has no bearing on her alignment at all, i just like her.

i also find her townish in this game.
Why? Pure gut?
ragingrabbit, what is your opinion of sensfan? post 441 left him out entirely.
It left many people out, I dislike commenting on players I don't have much to say about.
Sens said very little thus far, I never played with him in the past but I take it that this isn't his normal playstyle. I think we're too early in the game to take this as a very strong tell, so I'd say neutral to scummy.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #446 (isolation #12) » Sun Nov 23, 2008 7:51 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:This question is based on an assumption that isn't really based on any evidence. Why are you assuming the Guardian kill was a scumkill unless you took part in deciding it?
Because Guardian makes no sense as a vig kill, and we're not even sure we have a vig. I can't completely rule it out, but I'm willing to assume the far, far liklier option.
Korts wrote:You misunderstand me. When I said "elbows deep in shit" I was saying that she's not afraid to stir up shit with her bare hands, as in fishing for emotions, reactions etc.
Why can't that be a scum move? It carries no real bad implications for her and gives the appearance that she's actually scumhunting.
Korts wrote:Shouting WIFOM at every hint of it is idiocy and a way to be acting like you're scumhunting. Again, looking at the motivations for her actions, I have the impression that she has slightly more motivation to be stirring up shit the way she's doing as town than as scum. Ignoring the motivations and running around screaming WIFOM isn't exactly a logical reply.
I just realized I meant third sentence, which is:
Korts wrote:DGB's actions so far have been pro-town, therefore I have no reason to suspect her.
Circular argument, says nothing. Wasn't talking about WIFOM here. The BM-Guardian link that was part of your attack on BM is a WIFOM trap in light of his kill, I'm surprised you didn't comment on the kill in relation to BM before.
Korts wrote:This comment carries heavy implications without you having provided any proof. Where was I doing that? Quotes plz.
Korts wrote:Firstly, I didn't know how else to phrase it. Secondly, it was you who were implying you knew Guardian was town. Since there are no pro-town linked roles on the front page, this doesn't sit well with me, particularly because you didn't outright state that you thought Guardian was town, but tried to plant the thought of Guardiantown with a passing comment. I'd have had no problem with you stating that you have a town read on Guardian, what I do have a problem with is you trying to pass it as almost a suggestion.
Right here.
Korts wrote:If you can't explain why you made the assumption of Guardian being a scumkill, why you think it's WIFOM to explore the motivations for certain ways of behaviour, and how I was attacking BM for his town read on Guardian, my vote will be more than happy to visit you for an extended stay.
What good does this threat do you?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #471 (isolation #13) » Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:13 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Re: Korts
Korts wrote:I don't see how Guardian shouldn't make sense as a vig kill. You have to at least acknowledge that there were multiple players suspicious of him; and his attempt at stalling the CKD wagon at L-2 could've been taken as either buddying-up/opting for brownie points or derailing a scumbuddy-wagon as well as pro-town apprehension.
Any vig with a minimal amount of judgement who suspected such a connection would kill CKD rather than Guardian, to save the town a potential mislynch in case he was wrong. Other than the apparant connection I can't see any other reason anywhere near strong enough to warrant vigging Guardian, plus he was about to tell us why he didn't like the case on CKD so the timing of the kill prevented us information and was clearly anti-town, plus early kills in general favor the scum. Therefore, this being a vig kill is extremely unlikely and I'm comfortable assuming it was a scum kill.
If you take the first half of the sentence as granted, the second half is evident as conclusion. And the first half isn't circular logic/WIFOM in itself. Therefore I don't see what you're implying could be WIFOM here.
I never
said
it was WIFOM, I said circular logic. DGB's been pro town because you've no reason to suspect her, and you've no reason to suspect her because she's been pro town. This sentence doesn't actually say anything and is only there to make your read appear more justified.

First off, wait a second. Circular logic is the same as WIFOM, unless you're misusing the term. Please give your definitions to those two terms. My understanding of WIFOM is derived from the Princess Bride, and deciding whether the Wine In Front of Me or the Wine In Front Of You is poisoned is a very clear circular argument.
I don't have the patience to really go into exact definitions right now, but WIFOM is basically trying to form a set of assumptions that goes on an infinite loop and is therefore useless, while circular logic is an argument that depends upon itself as proof - X is bad because god said so, god said so because X is bad - and therefore in effect doesn't say anything new.
Second, I admit that I failed to correct that the BM-Guardian link that I made is obviously invalid now that Guardian's flipped town. But that never was the focal point of my case. Note that the vote on BM (in post 327) came structurally after I replied to BM misrepping rofl even after clarification, and not after I accused BM and Guardian of being connected. I also continued the post after the vote.
I just don't think a disagreement on the use of tenses - to which you later conceded - is cause for a vote, so I assumed the more important point was BM's connection to Guardain.
See bolded. My beef was with the very subtle implication that Guardian was town, specifically because of the structure of the sentence BM implied it in. When I first read it, I didn't even realize that he extended the implied townness to Guardian, I thought he only meant himself.
Subtle definitions aside, what you're basically doing here is
trying to dig deeper into a town read
- the same thing you accused BM of doing with your read on DGB.
Basically I thought, and still think, that you are merely following up on your stated "bad feeling" about me with a very poorly fabricated case. Your points are weak and rely in semantics.
Yes, my case stems from my inital strong gut feeling. How does that prove to you I'm scum exactly? I don't see any reasoning for your vote other than pure OMGUS.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #472 (isolation #14) » Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:42 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Re: Yos
Yos wrote:Oh? How so?
des wrote:Yos seems to go the distance to misrepresent my play.

Vollkan covered the point on your gut, so far as it's definition goes. I can concede, though, that my curiosity about your actual reasons may not have been as evident as I thought.

I don't understand how you could describe my vote change and interaction with ckd in the way you have, even after asking me for clarification and saying you understood. Saying I "dropped suspicion of ckd completely" is obviously misrepresentative given that my change of vote was accompanied by messages like, "ckd, I still want you to answer my questions." I've even said I could switch back to ckd if I wanted to. Where in that do you see me completely dropping my suspicion of him?

I don't even know why you'd begin to say I'm defending ckd or how my questioning you and Vollkan can be construed as attacks.

I'm seriously wondering if you actually believe this cause to suspect me.
This pretty much sums it up.
Yos wrote:What do you think about destructor's actions in regards to the CKD wagon after CKD put himself at lynch -1? Do they make sense to you?
Yes.
It's not questionable that he asked me, but it's really questionable that he didn't at all do so until I requested him.
Only because you somehow interperted the attack itself as not asking you that question.
Um, how could you possibly get that out of my post? That's pretty much the exact opposite of what I said.

I was pointing out that Volkan's actions were desturctive and anti-town, in that if you punish someone for trying to explain why he is suspicious of someone, then they're more likely to just say "gut", and that that is clearly less useful to the town.

I certanly didn't say "I told you it should have stayed at gut", or anything like that; me explaining my thought process should certanly help the rest of the town understand why I think CKD is most likely scum. On the other hand, Volkan voting me just because I explained my suspicions, especally when there was noting wrong or illogical about my suspicions, is very anti-town.
Misread you there, but that doesn't solve the issue - you continually nodge people into asking you for reasons, and then when you provide said reasons and they don't find them convincing you attack them for questioning your reasons, which you claim is anti town. Basically what you've created here is a win-win situation where any reason you provide should be seen as pro town because you could've just said gut. I think it's pretty absurd to say that questioning your reasoning is anti town in and of itself, questioning other people's reasoning is a big part of playing this game, despite the "pure gut" reasoning being impossible to question.
I notice you're trying to attack me for superficial and irrelevent side-issues and misrepresenting minor points of disagreement with Volkan, while totally not commenting on CKD himself here. Why is that?
Already commented on CKD, I'm not convinced by the case on him and see him as neutral-pro town. Anything specific you want me to refer to?
...what game is that?
Lovers Multiball, though to be fair she played most of it as TS and then replaced in as DGB.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #509 (isolation #15) » Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:20 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:The bolded part is BS. Me not having a reason to suspect her doesn't meant she's been pro-town specifically, just that she hasn't been scummy. Her being pro-town does, however, mean that I don't have a reason to suspect her.
You've
no reason
to suspect her > none of her actions are worthy of any sort of suspicion > "her actions so far have been pro town"
Korts wrote:I did later concede that point, but at the time of my vote, it wasn't clear whether BM was just being boneheaded about it or purposefully misrepping. And purposeful misrepping I see as a valid premise for a vote.
But you yourself admit it wasn't clear, and it a disagreement about the use of tenses is a very minor point anyways and not worthy of a vote.

Once you conceded it, both this and the connection with Guardian were no longer viable. Why didn't you unvote at that time, than?
Korts wrote:What? That's BS. You're completely missing the point. I wasn't "digging deeper into the town read"--there wasn't a stated town read. I was accusing BM of subtly implying the notion that Guardian is town. I never asked BM to clarify on his read.
There totally was a stated town read, subtle differences aside. What it seemed to me you said in response to BM's questioning was "it's worthless digging in to a town read" - in other words, town reads aren't good scumtells. You then used BM's town read on Guardian as a scumtell.
Korts wrote:I'll say it again. The thing that convinced me wasn't that you followed up on your gut case, but the fact that you followed up with such a weak case and invalid points, and seemingly only for the sake of staying consistent with your apparent "bad feeling" regarding me.
So any case made against you which you find weak is cause for a vote? I'd consider the earlier gut read a pro town sign in this case, if anything.
Yos wrote:Ok, you need to explain it to me, then.

Under what circumstances would someone putting themself at lynch -1 convince you to unvote them and instead push a different bandwagon? Because, personally, I can not think of ANY situation when I would do that as a pro-town person.
Des explained that perfectly well imo, he had two candidates for a vote and preffered switching to prevent a L-1 situation relatively early in the day. I don't get why you try to make it my responsibility to defend him.

Don't get what's the hurry about CKD's lynch.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #515 (isolation #16) » Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:26 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:Because I didn't see any better place for my vote.
Meh, I'd still unvote or at least state that I no longer find him suspicious. Plus your case on him was really weird to begin with.
Korts wrote:There was no stated town read! Show me where BM explicitly stated that he has a town read on Guardian before my accusation. My beef was with the implicit suggestion. You are blatantly ignoring my points and restating yours.
You are correct, I misread you. Now that I understand what you were saying, there isn't a contradiction with your read on DGB but the point itself is really reaching.


Korts wrote:When the case seems to have been made for the sole purpose of following up on a stated read, I think the conviction in it deserves to be tested. The gut read is at best a null-tell.
In your situation, assuming that you're town, a "weak" case that came out of nowhere would look worse to me than a "weak" case based on an ealier expressed gut - the case can be explained as the townie trying to follow up on his feeling, and not doing too well. I don't see how this is a town tell.

My case may not be very formidable looking, but I dislike the reasoning for your BM vote, disliked that you stayed on him despite conceding your case, and dislike you voting me just for finding my case weak - you've yet to even bother showing what in it is an actual scumtell, contradictory, or indicative of it being contrived. Since my bad gut also still very much stand, so does my vote.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #524 (isolation #17) » Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:02 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:I assume you mean scumtell.
Yup.
Korts wrote:Do you agree that making a very weak case and pushing it anyway is scummy?
Anti town yes, scummy not necassarily. Especially when said "weak case" is against you, because everyone's inclined to consider the majority of points raised against them weak. So I wouldn't consider it scummy unless I had reason to think the case was dishonest, or so extremely weak I can't see how that could possibly be means for a vote - which I don't think applies to my case on you.

I think you were just comfortable with OMGUSing me to have a more convincing place for your vote than BM and possibly pressure me into taking my vote away.

What do you make of elmo and des' votes on you?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #549 (isolation #18) » Sat Nov 29, 2008 6:45 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

vollkan, how about actually making an effort to pretend to scum hunt? This game isn't the debating club, and besides, after you're dead, we're going to need to know who you were bus'ing.
Wasn't vollkan the SK?

With deadline approaching it seems unlikely to me anyone but CKD or Korts is gonna be the lynch, so everyone who hasn't yet should pick a side and then we quickly make with the claims, which should give us enough time to discuss them some and make as much info out of the remainder of this day as possible.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #591 (isolation #19) » Wed Dec 03, 2008 3:16 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Yos is still pushing bad points on des, which is still scummy. Not sure what to make of the wall of text argument with Vollkan, both of them sorta lost me at some point.

BM, why can't Kors-scum be blatant about self reservation? It makes perfect sense for him to be. Still by far the best lynch imo.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #679 (isolation #20) » Sat Dec 06, 2008 10:50 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm here, back from a weekend's trip. Just skimmed the last few pages. CKD is a very bad lynch imo, Korts is still scum, very possibly with yos, and I'll be really impressed if DGB's scum and faked all her recent crazy posting that well.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #680 (isolation #21) » Sat Dec 06, 2008 10:54 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Was about to try explaining why people should vote Korts, but I just realized the deadline paased. Meh.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #682 (isolation #22) » Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:09 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Either he was telling the truth in his last post and is town (most likely), is scumpartners with Korts, or figured he was gonna get lynched as scum anyway and wanted to link himself to townie Korts.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #695 (isolation #23) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:17 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Vote Korts
.


Yos, I forgot you even asked that. The case I already posted summed up my suspicion to the best of my ability, along with the strong bad feeling he's consistenly giving me (and no, Korts, I don't always get that from you) that constituted my vote. I was about to get started on some sort of a Korts vs. CKD summary to try get someone to change his mind and maybe come up with some more points I didn't see before, but it became null once I realized deadline's passed. I'll review Korts again when I'll have the time.

sens is definitely lurking, but his activity is generally very low now (at least judging from a game he's modding) so it's hard to really draw conclusions from that.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #708 (isolation #24) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:10 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

You shouldn't auto assume there's a vig, Adel is perfectly capable of not doing the obvious. Also there could easily be one who chose not to kill for some reason. Or just an SK whose kill got blocked by a doctor/RB, I think it's unlikely we have both a vig and an SK owing to yesterday's single kill.

Sens should be utility lynched. He should either start posting or be replaced. His activity in the other game rofl linked to is certainly cause for suspicion, though.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #709 (isolation #25) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:11 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

And QFT on DGB's last post, Guardian was totally a scumkill as I already said.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #712 (isolation #26) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:28 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Sens should be utility lynched. He should either start posting or be replaced.
I meant should
n't
.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #714 (isolation #27) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:41 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

True, non-compulsive wasn't in the possible roles list. Missed that, I guess it makes it more likely for a second blocked kill to come from an SK - since he's likelier to target someone pro town looking who'd get protected by a doc - though that's not to say it couldn't have been a vig or that there necassarily even was a second kill.

It would be a mistake to lynch someone who provided very little input and could easily be replaced.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #716 (isolation #28) » Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Also, I'm mildly interested to see if people think that Elmo's idea for why Guardian was killed is legitimate.
Totally legit, I think this is very probably what happened.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #762 (isolation #29) » Mon Dec 08, 2008 1:00 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Quick recap on Korts, I really don't have the time for quote brackets - posts lots but doens't say very much, he comments on a lot of "soft" issues and asks lots of questions, which don't commit him to anything but give off the appearance of active scumhunting. His actual vote record is two random votes on Kison and BM, a bad case on Guardian for being "non-comittal" which he quickly retracted but didn't unvote, a worse case on BM, always a comfortable target, for a bunch of non-tells that he later claims to have conceded, but didn't unvote because he "didn't see a better place" for his vote, then a weak OMGUS attack on me which he quickly retracts as well, a self preservation vote on CKD without ever seeing the case on him, and now he goes back to BM without even explaining why, after all the reasons for his earlier BM vote turned out null. Also there's the bad logic behind his town read of DGB, which could easily be buddying up. I don't think he's at all concerned with actual scumhunting.

I agree with DGB, Kison is a bad vig candidate and since vigs also have no motive to kill early in the day it was very likely a scum kill as well.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #783 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:53 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Kills are made in real time, but Adel isn't constantly online and the death scene only occurs when she logs in. So who happened to be online at the time of her posting the death scene isn't much of a tell one way or the other. BM's case is bs, as is his similar attack on DGB.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #809 (isolation #31) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:43 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Meh, I guess BM annoyed people enough to make them forget all about the vote count. Just goes to prove that bad play doesn't necassarily make someone scum.

Vote Korts
.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #855 (isolation #32) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:24 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Eh? What are you talking about? I've been scumhunting pretty consistatnly all game. In fact, the reason you're attacking me here is because I was scumhunting and trying to find out if you were scum. Contradiction much?
Not at all. I haven't seen you do much scumhunting, for one, mostly you went back and forth with des and vollkan a whole lot and went all out on BM when the opprotunity presented itself. You don't seem to be questioning that many people or really be actively looking for scum. Your questioning of des, as you yourself keep stating, isn't because he's a main suspect but because you want to argue with him some and figure the point out (which I don't see how you haven't yet, his explanation has been fully satisfactory imo even before he started repeating it ad infinitum per your request), so it's not much of an attack really. You don't seem to be putting your head out much.
RR and Elmo said at the time that they didn't like my case on you. Which was fine; I certanly knew beforehand that I would take a lot of heat in suspecting someone that nearly everyone else in the game had already decided was town. But, you know, you can't worry about that when scumhunting.
Canonizing yourself here, I dislike that. Scum have strong motive to attack the people everyone think are pro town, especially with possible docs around that make them bad kill choices, so as scum you would definitely want to cast him in a doubtful light. Also, again, you weren't really attacking him, just "questioning his motives", which puts less heat on you because you never really comitted yourself to the suspicion. Instead of taking heat for selflesslesly attacking des as you present it here, your aim could easily have been discrediting des some while giving off the appearance of scumhunting and being attentive.

I'm totally up for Yos' lynch, he's been my second suspect for a while now.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #856 (isolation #33) » Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:31 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Above quotes are Yos', btw.
Korts wrote:Your case is basically this, correct me if I'm wrong: I made a case on Guardian (which was justified, just not based on the tell I thought it was); I made a case on BM based on a BS point of view in an argument, which I later retract on account of it being weak, but leave my vote because I can't find another place for it; "OMGUS" case on you, based on the fact that you seem to be pushing a weak case very hard; self-preservation vote on CKD (how's that even a point against me?); "bad logic" on the gut read on DGB.
You make a weak case on Guardian, than a really comfortable case on BM based on close to nothing which you never really seemed to believe, than you stay on BM after having admitted you don't have any real reason to suspect him anymoe, than you OMGUS me on a really weak basis which I quickly disprove and you unvote. So basically, you say a whole lot but actually do very little in terms of scumhunting, and seem to settle on targets just because they're a good place for you to keep your vote in at the time.

Also, jumping on rofl and uncovincing reasons for your town read on DGB are both mild scumtells.

Yos, what do you think of Korts?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #885 (isolation #34) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:55 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:
RR wrote:than you stay on BM after having admitted you don't have any real reason to suspect him anymoe
You are pushing this point like it's especially damning. I like keeping my vote out somewhere, and usually when I don't have any leads it's my most recent suspect who gets the honor.
RR wrote:than you OMGUS me on a really weak basis which I quickly disprove and you unvote.
See, it didn't happen that way. You presented a weak case on me. I answered your points. You kept pushing on the same ill-founded reasons. So I voted you for pushing a crap case. There's no OMGUS there (and I'm not even taking into account that OMGUS doesn't exist in practise)./quote]

Your vote was based on not liking how you thought my case was just a followup on my earlier bad gut, which as you yourself admitted later isn't a scumtell.

My focal point is that all of your cases had very little to none at all behind them, and you never invested yourself too strongly in one. They just seem like a tool for you to keep moving your vote around and appear to be scumhunting, which I don't think you are.

Yos being mafia further strengthens my suspicion, I had a feeling you were connected before but wanted to question Yos on his point of view first.

Yos asking questions about the case of you isn't an obvious defence as you tried to present it, it's more like casting an air of doubt on it and allowing himself room for either a bus or a more blatant defence should the situation arise.
You on the other hand have been very non-comittal on Yos, saying you don't see any proof of him being scum and later when more attention was going his way that you see him as slightly scummy, again giving yourself lots of leeway to change your read in whichever way you liked.
Korts wrote:Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching. Of the three main participants of that line of discussion (Yos, des, vollkan), vollkan seems to be the one who chimes in for personal motives.
Korts wrote:The Yosarian-suspicion I agree with to a lesser extent. I don't really see vollkan as scummy, though...
What changed?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #886 (isolation #35) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:58 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Quote tags got screwed up, here's the post in a less confusing format:
Korts wrote:
RR wrote:than you stay on BM after having admitted you don't have any real reason to suspect him anymoe
You are pushing this point like it's especially damning. I like keeping my vote out somewhere, and usually when I don't have any leads it's my most recent suspect who gets the honor.
RR wrote:than you OMGUS me on a really weak basis which I quickly disprove and you unvote.
See, it didn't happen that way. You presented a weak case on me. I answered your points. You kept pushing on the same ill-founded reasons. So I voted you for pushing a crap case. There's no OMGUS there (and I'm not even taking into account that OMGUS doesn't exist in practise).
Your vote was based on not liking how you thought my case was just a followup on my earlier bad gut, which as you yourself admitted later isn't a scumtell.

My focal point is that all of your cases had very little to none at all behind them, and you never invested yourself too strongly in one. They just seem like a tool for you to keep moving your vote around and appear to be scumhunting, which I don't think you are.

Yos being mafia further strengthens my suspicion, I had a feeling you were connected before but wanted to question Yos on his point of view first.

Yos asking questions about the case of you isn't an obvious defence as you tried to present it, it's more like casting an air of doubt on it and allowing himself room for either a bus or a more blatant defence should the situation arise.
You on the other hand have been very non-comittal on Yos, saying you don't see any proof of him being scum and later when more attention was going his way that you see him as slightly scummy, again giving yourself lots of leeway to change your read in whichever way you liked.
Korts wrote:Meanwhile, the debate between Yos and des doesn't seem to give proof of either one being scum. Yos seems to be slightly reaching, while des seems to be extrapolating Yos's scumminess from the fact that Yos is slightly reaching. Of the three main participants of that line of discussion (Yos, des, vollkan), vollkan seems to be the one who chimes in for personal motives.
Korts wrote:The Yosarian-suspicion I agree with to a lesser extent. I don't really see vollkan as scummy, though...
What changed?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #888 (isolation #36) » Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:28 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:It was about how your
weak
case was a follow-up. If you had made a stronger case, I would't have "OMGUS"-ed you.
Yes, but it being a follow up was a part of your attack, along with it being weak (and I'm sure it seemed more appealing due to the OMGUS part - it being against you). As you conceded later, the follow up bit doesn't strengthen your case but weakens it, if anything.
Korts wrote:The cases I made were all as strong as I could find. I didn't invest myself in them strongly because they weren't strong cases. If this is your focal point, it's not a strong one.
So basically, despite talking a lot, you aren't really doing any scumhunting. I happen to think that's a fine focal point.
Korts wrote:Why don't you FoS everyone who has expressed no suspicion or conflicting reads on Yos? I agree, I have been non-committal on Yos, but I don't see how that's exclusively a stance that scum would take.
Nothing is exclusively scummy, but it does make you more likely to be his scumpartner; along with other things.
Korts wrote:Didn't I concede that Yos was reaching? That, IMO, pretty much covers deserving suspicion to a lesser extent.
You said that the debate doesn't give proof of either's alignment, and that vollkan, the third participant, was the scummy one. Then suddenly you somewhat agree with the case against Yos and find vollkan pro town.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #927 (isolation #37) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 4:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm pretty sure Korts is anti town, whether part of a second mafia (far less likely) or SK makes little difference. Both second kills make no sense whatsoever from a town point of view, both because of timing and choice of target, and have very weak rational behind them. Even the Yos kill I'm not sure makes sense as a choice from Korts-vig point of view. My two biggest issues are the timing of the kills, which is both early in the day which means they were less informed decisions and didn't maximize their potential of helping the town (for example - a reasonable compulsive dayvig would vig a main lynch candidate every day, to essentialy make his kills more informative and effectively give the town two lynches a day), and more importantly both targets were going to provide the town valuable info that would make it easier for a vig to determine their alignment, so there's no reason for him to ever ever kill them befoer they got to. Also, in addition to Guardain's kill making no sense because CKD was a better choice according to his case, there's the matter of his so called suspicion of Kison, which he expressed as an unexplained gut read in one single post early day two before immediately submitting the kill, then going "whoops, guess I was wrong" - which is totally and utterly contrived looking, that unexlained "bad feeling" post seems meant for him to claim prior suspicion of Kison, thus making his vig claim more believable.

Also, there's the matter of the two kills that didn't go through. If Korts really is a vig that eliminates the possibility of a kill targeting the kill immune SK, which leaves us with a RB targetting the scum who made the kill - who should claim right now obviously, and since no one has yet I'm assuming for the moment doesn't exist - and a doc. So in order for Korts to be an SK the doc would've had to outguess the mafia two days in a row, and submit his target before them to top that off. I don't think that's very likely, and combined with the above I'd say I'm like 90% sure he's the SK.

Now, what I'm starting to wonder is whether in this current situation we may be better off keeping him alive anyways. I mean, after his claim we can force Korts to kill according to a second vote in any future days, effectively gaining us a second lynch. If he doesn't, we immediately lynch him and he (most likely) loses any chance he had of winning the game. Thus we improve the townkill:scumkill ratio dramatically to our side, and give ourselves a much better chance to finish off the scum quickly. Then when we assume there's no scum left, if we haven't won yet, we lynch Korts. This also takes care of the (quite slim imo) possibility he's telling the truth. Discuss.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #933 (isolation #38) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:39 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

All these "crumbs" only go to prove you planned claiming vig ahead, which makes perfect sense as an SK - in fact, some like the Kison post look more geared towards a future fakeclaim than an actual reflection of what a pro town player is thinking.
rofl wrote:thats a fair point. des and i basically quickhammered him between us.
True. I thought the scumkill is done at random if it isn't submitted until deadline, like the vig and SK kills, but it turns out it doens't. Still, anti town roles have a strong incentive to kill quickly while pro town roles are the other way around.

Unvote
for now while we contemplate whether to keep you alive. I need to take a long look at some other players, FL in particurlar is making me uncomfortable, and will hopefully do so later this week if I'll find the time.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #959 (isolation #39) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 5:44 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Yeah. When we hit prisoner's dilemma territory depends on the number of scum. Is 1 SK + 4 mafia too much? Probably, so.. 9 -- lynch -> 8 -- mafia kill -> 7 -- Korts kill -> 6 is effectively LyLo with two shots at hitting scum. But we only get the one lynch before that. So, yeah, if Korts is a SK, we kinda have
Not exactly. Korts' kill for today is done with, so assuming a mislynch and a scumkill that goes through we're left with 7 tomorrow. Now, without Korts this puts us in a situation where if the scumkill goes through we're at close to lylo tommorow, we'll have 6 left and a missed lynch means they can kill again early d5 and (assuming a 3 person scumgroup) win the game. With Korts, who kills as we choose to not get lynched/because he's actually town, we get today's lynch - which surely won't hit scum if we kill Korts - plus his kill tomorrow - the equivalent of the alternative's option's lynch, choosing 1 of 6 people - and if both fail and all scum kills go through we're at a very miserable situation, but still haven't lost. This looks like slightly better odds to me, but the factor of keeping the probable SK alive is quite indimidating and I'm really not sure yet. We also have to take into acount the possibilty of a 2 person scumgroup + SK which isn't that unbalanced in a 14 player game with potenially few power roles, mafia kills possibly getting prevented and Korts potenially being part of a second scumgroup. Confusion ensues.

I think DGB's town, her day two play and approach to BM in specific seem to come from a pro town point of view and are hard to fake. I suppose she could be throwing me off, but I'm going with my gut on this one.

Not seeing the case against vollkan at all, I have him as pretty neutral.

People who seem somewhat scummy and I need to take a closer look at - FL, tajo.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #962 (isolation #40) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 8:11 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote: Either way, I'm vidging Elmo tomorrow unless you want to lynch him instead.
You vig whoever the town wants you to, so as to gain us a second lynch which gives off more information and is in every way better than an individual decision, or we know you're the SK and lynch you. Simple as that.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #969 (isolation #41) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 10:41 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts wrote:Elmo is scum. Does it get any simpler than that? That's not just my opinion.
Wait 'till you hear everyone's opinion, then vig the majority choice. I think that's the obvious course of action if you're pro town.

Last post sorely tempts me to vote FL, but I'd rather do some rereading first.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #979 (isolation #42) » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:46 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Reread FL and tajo, which enforced my gut feeling that they're the two scummiest players, excluding Korts. FL is looking worse - for her weird approach to Yos, coming in to the game d3 and starting to comment on d2 of all things - and doing so by stating opinions on lots of things with almost no questions or attempts to discern anything further - odd for a replacement, like she wanted to keep to avoid confrontation. Bad case on DGB for what I actually consider a towntell, and pure OMGUS on Vollkan. I'd vote, but I don't want her at L-1 where she could be effectively hammered by a kill.

FOS: FL
, I'd like a claim please.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #993 (isolation #43) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:35 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:Why'd you think Tajo's scum, Rabbit? He seems townish to me. Not contributing tonnes, but what is there reads town. I suppose that haven't seen him as scum, and I only played with him once, like a year ago in a newbie game. But I'm more confident about him than a bunch of other people.
Ever since his entry post he seems to happy sticking to the backround, posting little substance that almost always goes along with popular opinion. I get this feeling he doesn't really care much about who gets lynched, which is very different from the town-tajo I played with who seemed much more emotionally invested in the game.

des wrote:The only part of vollkan's list I'm uneasy about is his read on RR. I know he hasn't done anything obviously scummy, but I'm worried that maybe he's flying under the radar. I feel like most of his posts have only been about Korts.
I also talked about Yos a lot. What's wrong with concentrating on two main suspects? Now that Korts probably is a questionable lynch and Yos truned scum, I'm looking at other people as well.


I'm really stating to wonder about the scumkill.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #996 (isolation #44) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:41 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

It just occured to me that we have 9 alive, so the whole thing about not voting FL to prevent a hammer via scumkill is BS - it stays 5 to lynch after the kill as well. Going back now to see who got this idea in to my head.

Vote FL
, enabling a
town
quickhammer that would make sure we'll have no scumkill today. FL doesn't seem to have any sort of defense ready considering the staggering amount of content in her last post, so that may be a pretty good idea.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #998 (isolation #45) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:48 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

populartajo wrote:Damn, sorry for the triple post.
If Vollkan isnt scum and if scum hasnt killed yet then I can autolynch vollkan if they decide to kill right now.
Unvote.

But I think he should claim, anyways.
Adel, also I think the number of nonvoters is off.
Hmm. This being a triple-post implements he might've gone back and looked at the numbers, so I don't see how he arrived to this conclusion. Maybe a false alarm in an attempt to look like he's thinking from a pro town PoV.

I can't seem to decide what I think of Vollkan. His play has been very logical and void of any real tells I can see, and the case about him is wholly unconvincing, but Vollkan's play is rational and distant enough that I believe he can play like that as scum as well, and bussing Yos seems like a reasonable play. Still, there's nothing I can really support this possibilty with and there are far better targets around right now.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #999 (isolation #46) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

populartajo wrote:RR, it was prob me. I might be wrong but if Korts is indeed SK/comp vig and the scum decides to kill we only have 8 players alive, autolynching FL immediately with your vote, right?
Korts already killed today. We have 9 alive.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1001 (isolation #47) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:53 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Tajo wrote:Vollkan, Im admitting I am a lazy bastard and just thought that one (if not both) of you and FL had to be scum since I have townie and neutral reads from other players.
Hmm. Why didn't you hammer FL?


If scum kills, err, we still have 5 to lynch... Nothing changes drastically except we're short one player.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1003 (isolation #48) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 5:13 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

If she turns scum, I figure that's bussing under pressure.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1012 (isolation #49) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:36 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I need to reread with the scum in mind to make sure, but right now the only ones I don't have a strong pro town read on are tajo, vollkan and Elmo, with tajo being the only one I actually suspect (not counting Korts, off course).

Korts, do not vig anyone until we tell you to. We'll auto lynch you on principle. That's bad for you if you're the SK since you lose any chance of winning, and bad for you if you're town since you deny us information from your kill and cause your own lynch to top. Seriously, don't.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1013 (isolation #50) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:38 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

populartajo wrote:
Korts wrote:
populartajo wrote:Woot I hammered scum.
Why am I not confirmed? :(
Why do you think that would confirm you?
I never said that would confirm me.
Its like all are having a party of confirmed townies for suspecting FL and Im not invited when she was my top suspect (along with Vollkan) for a long time.
Actually you were on both townie wagons, then voted for vollkan, then only hammered FL after I explicidly asked why you didn't earlier.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1015 (isolation #51) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:43 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

It didn't sound like you did yesterday, but I'm glad.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1033 (isolation #52) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 2:42 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:Well, that takes some of the edge off. I would guess we have a mafia roleblocker left, although we can always hope it's a doc and they now cannot kill. I think we shouldn't count on Korts being able to kill today. (We'll know if he's lying, because he's compulsive either way.)
Whichever it is, assuming a 3 person scumgroup there'd be no way for them to both kill and block Korts. And surely, Korts is able to kill - nobody else claimed credit on the Yos kill, so it was clearly commited by Korts, who also can't be a member of the mafia.
rofl wrote:also, possible korts should be suiciding today or tomorrow
Bad plan, SK's are immune to kills so a suicide would only be effective if he happens to be a vig. And he could claim he go blocked anyways. When we decide it's time, Korts should be lynched.

Des and DGB I'm almost sure are town, even regardless of rofl's possilbe knowledge. vollkan is an unlikely candidate given the excessive amount of bussing he needed to have done as scum, and Korts isn't mafia. That leaves tajo and Elmo as the two strongest candidates, so they should be today's lynch and vig imo. I'd suggest
vigging tajo
first.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1036 (isolation #53) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 9:46 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Above post pings my scumdar, for some reason. Something in the tone feels off.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1040 (isolation #54) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 11:55 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I suspect it's resembling that thing that scum like to do where they'll basically abandon any pretence at judging alignment and move straight to trying to get the person attacking them lynched. Difference is, I've been saying KortsScum for ages, and I'm probably OMGUSsing to some degree.

Or it could be something else; I don't know. I was feeling pretty ratty when I wrote it, if that's any info. (shrug)
It's not that, I think Korts is anti town as well and have for a while now. Feeling ratty is a probable cause for the pissed off tone, but there's something else there I'm having trouble putting my finger.
Elmo wrote:If he wanted me to support him as scum, yes, he would just have asked me to in the quicktopic thread. Scum do not try and force each other's hand to support them or take a specific course of action, they work AS A TEAM in a coordinated fashion. If I was scum with him, we would have done something like read over the thread together, figure out whether or not it was the correct move for me to defend him or bus him, and then act accordingly, and all without giving any indication of it in-thread. Probably it would come out roughly like how Vollkan acted.
This paragraph in particurlar is odd, both in the manner it's phrased and the way you pass off total WIFOM as absolute fact and use it to accuse vollkan.


Oh, and you're right about the roleblocker. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if Korts' kill gets blocked.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1045 (isolation #55) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:16 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo, that's 5 out of 6 players who aren't you that have you as one of their main suspects. I'd say it's claim time.

Incidentally, vollkan, who do you currently suspect? You had everyone alive other than Korts ranked at 50 and below in that list of yours.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1046 (isolation #56) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:23 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:That's roughly what I or any other competent player would have done as scum when they have access to daytalk; you act as a coordinated team, since that's the principle advantage you have as group scum.
Yeah, but he was talking about Yos asking you to defend him and you implement that to a throwaway comment on vollkan being scum. I don't like the subtle attempt to throw attention elsewhere.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1067 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:08 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Interesting stuff. I'd say a 3 person scumgroup + SK is far liklier than a 4 person scumgroup, and Korts I belive is anti town anyways. Question is,
mod
, does the SK's random kill go off at the end of the day even if he gets lynched? 'Cause if it doesn't, we lynch Korts and it's more or less an auto-win.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1082 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 11:58 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:Does c. sk vs. 3 mafia vs. tracker + doc + cop seem at all balanced to people?
Doesn't seem all that unbalanced. Remember that doc and tracker are weakened since they have to submit their action before the kill for it to work.

I still lean heavily towards Korts being the SK and last anti town player, but to maximize our options we should lynch someone else today and have another two kils tommorow, one of them being Korts. That's excellent odds if you ask me.

Basically, we need to pick two out of Elmo, tajo, DGB, des and myself. Elmo claiming an innocent on me makes me the only truely confirmed player, since we can't be scum together - 5 is just way excessive. des is also totally town, and deserves this win if he somehow isn't. So between the rofl-confirmed DGB, Elmo and tajo, I'd say we're best off lynching Elmo and tajo. Elmo should investigate Korts tomorrow to maximize our knowledge, so
vote: tajo
.

Oh, and we're best off massclaiming, just to make sure.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1084 (isolation #59) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 12:05 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:
Korts wrote:4 scum is much more likely than 1 GF and 2 Goons against a Cop-Doc-Vig-Tracker town.
I love how your argument is predicated on an existent cop. Would you please explain to the gallery how compulsive vig + doc + tracker is balanced against 1 GF + 3 goons? Or why the mafia would have even have a godfather with no cop in the setup?
Yeah, saying cop instead of tracker there is kind of a serious slip. I'm almost sure Elmo's a real cop now. Anyways, game breaking plan:

We lynch tajo. Tomorrow, Elmo investigates Korts. If he claims an innocent, we have Korts vig him and if he isn't scum lynch DGB. If he claims a guilty, we still have Korts vig him and if he doesn't or does and Elmo turns town, we lynch Korts. Pretty much a guaranteed win, I'd say.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1085 (isolation #60) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 12:07 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Oh, wait. That wasn't a slip from Korts. Misread him. Game breaking plan still stands, though. :)
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1088 (isolation #61) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 12:35 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

There only hole I see is that des has a slim chance of being both scum and a genius. Other than that, seems a guaranteed win.

And the existence of a GF proves nothing.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1090 (isolation #62) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 12:49 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

He could've plausibly chose to protect DGB d1, then D2 the scum just didn't get to send a kill in and D3 he protected me. But yeah, extremely unlikely. We basically win.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1093 (isolation #63) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:07 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Let's assume Korts is innocent, 'cause if he's the last scum we win anyways. 5 anti town roles in a 14 player setting is just way, way excessive. I'm pretty sure that's not the case.

Option A - lynch Korts - 5 left tommorow, we essentially have two lynches to figure out the scum. So one of tajo, Elmo DGB could be scum and win.

Option B - my plan - lynch tajo, tommorow Elmo investigates Korts before getting vigged, which confirms Korts as town if Elmo claims an innocent or scum if he claims a guilty - we earn the possibilty of saving ourselves a mislynch of Korts, enabling a DGB lynch which could decide the game if she happens to be our last scum. Slightly superior.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1097 (isolation #64) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:38 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Right. I have the Korts SK scenario stuck in my head, so I didn't take into account the possibility of more than one kill a day if he's a vig. Scum killing me or you early tommorow totally fucks up the numbers. I guess the right thing to do is lynch Korts, then.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1100 (isolation #65) » Sun Dec 21, 2008 2:10 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

No idea what Elmo's talking about, but it sounds like speculating about it will mostly help scum.

I like my plan too, it just gets too dangerous with the possibility of 2 kills tommorow. We should massclaim just to make sure there isn't anything we're missing, then lynch Korts. tajo should start.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1109 (isolation #66) » Mon Dec 22, 2008 5:09 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I ran my plan again, this time on paper. If we assume we aren't against scum + SK, but rather a single SK or single scum, it's superior to lynching Korts. Here's why: (I'm assuming des 100% inncoent, if he's scum we lose either way)

If Korts is the SK, with the current plan we immediatly win. With mine, we have 5 alive tommorow and even if Korts manages to kill Elmo before he gets his investigation in, he'll still be the obvious lynch (a town of me, des, DGB, Korts). So bascially, we win either way.

If we're against a single scum -
current plan - lynch Korts - 5 remain
tommorow's scumkill - 4 remain
Elmo either gets an investigation in or gets killed, so it narrows down to a choice between two of (Elmo, DGB, Tajo), one of which is confirmed inncocent - most likely Elmo will investigate tajo and claim a guilty, so it narrows down to a choice between the two of them. Assume a 50% chance of mislynching. If we mislynch, 3 remain and we have a slight chance to hammer the last scum before he gets his kill in. The odds, basically, are slightly superior to 50%.

Lynch Tajo - already the 50% odds of winning the former plan offers in this scenario. But assuming a mislynch, we have 5 remaining.
Scum kill - 4 remaining.
If they kill Elmo - Kors vigs DGB - 3 remaining, then gets lynched. 100% win.
If they kill either me or des - 4 remaining, Elmo investigates Korts, then gets vigged - 3 remaining. If he comes up the last scum, we win. If he doesn't, we have an innocent on Korts that tells us DGB is the last scum. Again, 100% win.

Scum + SK really complicates things, and in this case my plan is far inferior if Elmo or DGB's the scum and slightly superior if tajo is, but I find that scenario highly unlikely.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but we're better off lynching Tajo today.

And DGB, just to cover our bases, claim please.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1113 (isolation #67) » Tue Dec 23, 2008 3:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I have some reasons for suspecting him I outlined earlier I believe, but more importantly it's just process of elimination. You and DGB are very likely town, and Elmo we need to investigate tomorrow.

I'm almost sure lynching Korts will lead to an immediate win, but lynching tajo today covers our options better.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1114 (isolation #68) » Tue Dec 23, 2008 3:49 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

And I'm vanilla, btw. I suppose you are as well, des?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1117 (isolation #69) » Wed Dec 24, 2008 6:04 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:Post.

I can't think of much to say. Just waiting for Des/RR to agree on which plan. Posting so I can't get replaced. Merry Christmas!
What happened to your opinion on the matter?

Happy Chanukah! :P
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1119 (isolation #70) » Fri Dec 26, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm like 90% sure Korts is the SK and last anti town player, but I'm also almost 100% sure my plan gives us a better overall chance of winning this and will never forgive myself if we don't as a result of not following it.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1121 (isolation #71) » Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:56 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Vote tajo, than.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1125 (isolation #72) » Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:46 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo should hammah, I don't think it matters much if Adel's online or not. If he's killed by scum before claiming investigation, we have Korts vig DGB and than lynch him. Assuming we aren't against scum+Sk, that's an assured win.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1130 (isolation #73) » Sun Dec 28, 2008 4:10 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'd say we're good to go.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1145 (isolation #74) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:01 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

tajo wrote: Im getting a little paranoid with different people as I really expected people like des, Elmo, RR and DGB to play optimally. I know Im town so if one of these guys is scum then Im pretty much giving him/her the win with my(our) lazy attitude.
Actually Elmo or DGB lose as scum if you follow my plan.
tajo wrote:If we lynch Korts and if we assume a 4 team scumgroup then there would only be one scum left with 5-4 players alive and many scum connections waiting to be analyzed.
My question here is what happened to scumhunting?
Scumhunting becomes kinda obsolete here. Lynching Korts if he isn't the SK leaves 4 alive tomorrow, which means we'll be at almost LYLO - a mislynch means we have to speedhammer scum before they get a kill in D6 to win. No lynching is an option, but since our choice is likely between Elmo and tajo anyways that doesn't do us much good. With my plan we simply win if the setup fits my set of very reasonable assumptions, the chance that it doesn't imo is much lower than our chance of mislynching tomorrow - especially since Adel said she wanted to run this as a test for the Deep South mechanic, to see how it works in a game that by all other means is essentially basic. Secondguessing ourselves at LYLO is fun an' all, but I'm willing to set scumhunting aside for an almost guaranteed win.

I know I might sound a little paranoid but if the idea is maximizing the odds of winning then why RR and des, even me, are assuming that the other is town or genious scum?
I partially reread des earlier, and think he's just extremely unlikely to be scum here. He's consistantly both using good logic and giving me a good gut feeling for one, and Yos des and vollkan would have to completely fake that 3 way row they had earlier for them to all be scum together, which I think is very far fetched at best. If des is scum, he deserves to win this, and will anyways - it's not like anyone's gonna choose him as our one and likely only lynch if we lynch Korts today.

As for me, like des said I'd have to be a second godfather to be scum here, which I never saw happen in the same faction. I was also a likely doc protection, since rofl proclaimed me town. On top of that, why would I make up this plan and prolong discussion when I could just help Korts die and still be considered confirmed tommorow? Seems counterproductive to make everyone rethink themselves like that.


des wrote:Also, the number of kills involved, yours then Elmo's, seems like overkill. I'd still support a Korts lynch today since I don't see you (Tajo) as scum.
Why overkill? We leave a minimum number of people alive, essentially eliminating the chance of one of them being scum, before hammering our likliest target. It's not like Korts is given any wiggle room, if he doesn't vig whoever we tell him to tomorrow he immediately gets lynched.
des wrote:RR, if there's one more Mafia member left, what role do you think they are?
Well, second GF doesn't make sense, and a doc/roleblocker would've saved vollkan. So I have to go with goon here.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1146 (isolation #75) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:17 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

tajo reads slightly better upon another look, and the explanation for his being less emotionally involved here is reasonable. I think he's essentialy played a low profile pro town looking game, with did attack both remaining scum yesterday - but it's still possible for him to pull that off as scum imo, the most unlikely thing being the excessive bussing. Elmo looks more likely to be scum than him at this point, though my plan still requires a tajo lynch for Elmo to claim an investigation tommorow.

As for game balance, GF + 3 goons vs. cop + doc + tracker + vig seems excessive, but trading the vig for an SK seems unbalanced the other way around. The two setups that make the most sense to me are GF + 2 goons + SK vs. cop + doc + tracker + 7 townies (Korts is scum), or GF + 3 goons vs. doc + tracker + vig + 7 townies (Elmo is scum).
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1147 (isolation #76) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:24 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

A Korts lynch isn't the worst thing that can happen, of course, I've been suspicious of him since day 1, still believe he's most likely to be our last scum and will be glad to have been proven right, so I'll go along with it if that's what everyone prefers. I still think my plan maximizes our options in case I'm wrong about Korts, though, and if we lose this to Elmo/tajo/DGB I'm definitely gonna be saying I told you so.

What made you change to Korts, DGB?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1149 (isolation #77) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:48 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I agree, but we win anyways if he's the sole SK. If he isn't - didn't you already say you agree that my plan maximizes our probability of winning?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1151 (isolation #78) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:08 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

If that's so, we win either way.

If we're wrong about him, which tactic do you find superior?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1154 (isolation #79) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 10:40 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Yes. Elmo claimed an innocent on me and we can't be scum together.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1156 (isolation #80) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 11:38 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Either that or a 5 person scumgroup, I suppose.

Elmo's most likely to be scum if Korts isn't the SK, for reasons I just explained.

DGB is very likely town, because of rofl's likely protection amongst other things. Almost, but not quite, as likely as des imo. My plan still makes sure she doesn't win as scum, though.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1158 (isolation #81) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:16 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Hmm. Unless I'm mistaken, if either Tajo or DGB are mafia, they have a ready-made plan to win if we lynch Korts, based on RR's opinion of me.
What kind of a surprise move like that is even remotely possible, unless we're facing more than one scum?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1160 (isolation #82) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:38 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:Logically, if either of them are mafia, then either Korts is a vig or we're facing more than one remaining scum. In either case, it should be trivial for them to kill someone, probably Des, and then push my mislynch based on your opinion of me, after Korts is dead.
If there's another mafia in the game, I believe it makes a lot more sense for Korts to be telling the truth. 5 anti town roles out of 14 players is just overkill.

What you've outlined is possible if we lynch Korts today. If we lynch tajo, you'll be vigged by Korts prior to the lynch, which makes it impossible to push you. Thus we essentialy gain an extra town kill before LYLO by not lynching Korts today.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1162 (isolation #83) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:03 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Yeah, I took it as "ready made plan to lynch to win if we lynch tajo", instead of Korts for some reason. Shouldn't be posting this late.

I don't really suspect you, it's jus that I really
don't
suspect des and DGB and you make more sense than Tajo as the last scum since I think the game will be more balanced without the addition of a cop.

Anyways, guess it's up to des/DGB right now.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1168 (isolation #84) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 3:20 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

My plan works of two base assumptions:
1. There is only one anti town player remaining.
2. Both RR and des are pro town.

If both if these are true, we win 100% of the time. Note that all of the cases in which we lose des outlined above require either him or myself to be scum.
des wrote:Regardless of what result Elmo claims on Korts, what incentive is there for him, as an SK, to kill him for the town? Killing Elmo will only either confirm all of his investigations are true or kill the last member of the Mafia, both of which make winning as SK harder. This is a pretty big hole in the plan.
Korts simply knows that if he doesn't kill Elmo, we auto lynch him. He's in a sort of Catch 22 since once Elmo claims a guilty on him we lynch him anyways, but there's really nothing he can do to prevent this unless there is another anti town role involved, which I pre-assumed there isn't.

The mafia kill makes no difference other than preventing the endgame situation you were talking about. Killing anyone but me or des allows further knowledge to be gained (e.g if DGB is killed and Elmo got an innocent on Korts, we know it's either me or des). Killing either of us doesn't really change the number - with 4 alive we still have a vig kill and a lynch before losing.


Now, let's examine the two situations in which don't auto win if we follow my plan - the contradictions of my base assumptions - and see how they play out if we lynch Korts today:

1.
There is more than 1 anti town player remaining
. I assume that has to mean there's another mafioso along with Korts-SK. (Note: still working under the assumption that des and I are innocent.)

Lynch Tajo - If the mafioso is Tajo, we still win. If he isn't - both Korts and the mafioso can kill innocents tomorrow, putting us into prisoner's dillema.

Lynch Korts - we basically have a 50% chance to guess the mafioso correctly tomorrow - Elmo's investigation narrows things down, and if we're wrong we have to speedlynch D6 before he gets a kill in or we lose.

The odds we get by lynching Korts are better than those we get by lynching Tajo, by I think this situation is unlikely and the improved odds in the case of one mafioso make up for that.

If for some reason there are two mafia remaining, lynching Tajo today again offers the better odds.

2.
Either des or RR is scum
. (Note: still working under the assumption that there is only one anti town player remaining).

Lynch Tajo - we lose, see above explanation by des.

Lynch Korts - there is no way we'll risk the game on either myself or des being scum, so we're guaranteed to lynch one of the other players and then try speedlynching another one when he turns town. So it's a clear loss as well, and it really doesn't matter which option we choose.

3.
There is more than one anti town player remaining; either des or RR is scum.


Very unlikely, but I find this analysis amusing:

Lynch Tajo - Korts SK will want to kill an innocent tomorrow to put the town in prisoner's dillema, so he's likely to choose either me or des for being most likely innocent. That gives him a 50% chance to hit the last mafia and lose himelf the game.

Lynch Korts - See above, town lose.


Basically, the only situation in which lynching Tajo worsens our odds is if we're facing an SK + mafioso tag team, and both des and I are innocent. I think the assured win in the case of one mafioso remaining more than makes up for that.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1170 (isolation #85) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:19 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

What do you make of my analysis, des?
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1181 (isolation #86) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:45 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

destructor wrote:What is the difference between mislynching Tajo and mislynching Korts?
In either case Elmo can still investigate one of Tajo, Korts and DGB and we can still chose to kill Elmo and confirm his investigations leaving us with the choice of lynching whoever is left at the end. The only difference is that lynching Korts
definitely
avoids a prisoner's dilemma. Do you see a problem with this RR?
Yes. Clearly we can't lynch Elmo to confirm investigations, as tomorrow's lynch is a form of LYLO. Korts' vig essentially allows us an extra kill before that, which we can use to confirm Elmo.

It is kind of ridiculous to be arguing this so much since it's very probably Korts, but I'll personally feel a whole lot more ridiculous if we lose as a result of not covering our options.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1182 (isolation #87) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:47 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Elmo wrote:I think everyone's town except Korts. My point is, that's literally the only way we can lose, from my point of view. (I think.) So if you've got two plans, one which allows it to possibly happen, and one which doesn't, it seems better to use the one that doesn't.

Thinking about it, I think we lose either way if DGB is mafia.. it goes, lynch tajo, I claim prob guilty on Korts, I'm vigged, Korts is lynched, someone is killed for the mafia win. Well, isn't this a pointless excercise.
If DGB is mafia, you'll get an innocent on Korts...
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1201 (isolation #88) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:56 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

The choice between Tajo and DGB only really matters if Korts is the SK in addition to either one being mafia, so it's not that dramatic a decision.

I read DGB's play at the end of D2 as very indicative of town, and she'd have to be one amazing actress to pull off all that bussing talk with vollkan while being his scumbuddy all along. Coupled with rofl's possible protection, I'd say she has a stronger town read in my book than Tajo. My best guess, of course, is that they're both townies, but I still slightly prefer lynching Tajo today.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1203 (isolation #89) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:37 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I refer you to my previous analysis, DGB. You're right about it probably being faster, though. :)
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1210 (isolation #90) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:37 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Korts, vig Elmo for suggesting that or face your doom. :)
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1217 (isolation #91) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:48 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Mod
, can we have a vote count/any sort of post that's not a death scene, if there isn't going to be one?

If Adel's post isn't a death scene, I'm voting Korts.
*twiddles thumbs*
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1219 (isolation #92) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:28 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Vote Korts.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1221 (isolation #93) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:46 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Yay for hammer!

Come to think about it, I really wish I was scum right now. :P
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1226 (isolation #94) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:36 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

We could have another 5 page discussion on the possibility of a mafia roleblocker, but somewhow I think I'd rather wait for the lynch.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1234 (isolation #95) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:30 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Woe to the wabbit. Why, Korts, why? :P

Very good game, the setup and modding really helped the pace become much faster and more enjoyable than it usually is. Also this is without a doubt the strongest town I've ever been a part of, special props to rofl and des. Personally, I'm quite proud to have been dead on with my two D1 suspects.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1235 (isolation #96) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:31 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

And yeah, I think the setup is well balanced. Said so in the thread before.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1243 (isolation #97) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 12:34 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

It turns out I really like Deep South games, makes for more exciting and better flowing days and saves the bother of wasting time on nights. I'm thinking of running one as a mini theme when my open game is finished. Would you mind if I borrow your rules, Adel? :)
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1250 (isolation #98) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 1:06 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Adel wrote:Sure, but I think my ruleset is getting a little sloppy -- I know that I need to clean them up a little. I'd even be happy to review it for you. I really want to popularize the format since I think it yields a better paced game.
Thanks! I'll send you a draft of the setup when I'll have one.


I don't like any of the role nerfs, unnecassarily weakens them and takes away from the real-time aspect, imo. Note that the nature of the setup slightly weakens these roles anyways, since in a normal game they're guaranteed to get the same result of winning the race here. You can disable all choices at the beginning of each day until everyone checks in to prevent the start of day races.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1262 (isolation #99) » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:10 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

des wrote:On that, was it really the best play to lynch him yesterday? We were all certain that Korts was the SK and most of us were also fairly certain that Tajo would flip town. But we lynched him anyway. I know that it did increase our chances of winning so I'm still trying to work out how it all made sense. I guess we decided to side with the numbers over our 'feelings' or something like that.
I think it was, it maximized our chances of winning and there was no real reason not to cover our back. It's not like we hurt Tajo's feelings or anything, he was lynched very emphatically I believe. :)
Still, apologies for making everyone go paranoid.

Hope I'll get another chance to catch a game with you sometimes in the future, des.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1291 (isolation #100) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:40 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Count me /in.
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Raging Rabbit
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1719
Joined: January 18, 2007

Post Post #1293 (isolation #101) » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:02 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

shaft.ed wrote:
The Fonz wrote:How about putting a 24hr delay on the kill, Adel? (Phrase it as 'in 24hrs time, or simultaneously with the lynch, whichever happens first).

That gives docs the chance to get in protects, trackers to get in their targets, and so on.
What about having a short night where Protective/Roleblocking etc roles make a night choice that remains throughout the following day? Investigative roles can go either at night or during the day or both.

Basically normal mafia except the scum have a daykill instead of a NK.


Oh and entertaining game, I didn't have time to play but the parts I've read have been fun.
I think that's pretty redundant, the best option seems to be a 24-48 hour period at the start of each day where choices can be submitted, at the end of which they all resolve together as they would on a normal night.

Return to “Completed Large Theme Games”