Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[Kairyuu]

Alrighty then Zade, let's see what there is here for me to respond to, because I do believe you reacted in exactly the way that I figured the scum would.

I'm not going to argue the reasoning for the two different lynches, because you will probably try to get it so that I have nothing left but to say we have differing opinions about the available information. So, assuming you have already done that to save time, I will move on.

Before I support this, what specifically will make it easier for the town? What scenarios do you envision?

I would like to say that, but I won't. Why? Because if I do then the scum know exactly what I am looking for. Besides, having the possibilities open makes it more likely for the scum to figure out a possible way around the trap.

By the way, I noticed something odd about what you said. You didn't include the possibility of a mafia role-blocker. You said:

while the scum's powers are useless or can be rendered such (godfather negated by lack of cop, and spy negated by a massclaim)

Where's the role-blocker? Clearly, based on the assumption that we have the set-up...

MMDDBTX, with X being either a third M or a V.

...then we have all three, mafia spy, role-blocker and godfather. And clearly, the mod isn't telling us which one Natirasha was. Why have you left role-blocker off of the list? Do you know that Natirasha was the mafia role-blocker? How? 0.o

Furthermore, the role-blocker would actually be helped a bit by the mass claim, wouldn't he? So if he's still in the game, he would be one mafia player whose powers aren't useless. Instead, he'd be more effective because he'd know who the doctor is.

Right then. This is obviously a mistake on my part right? Not at all actually. Remember Nat's claim? He claimed blocker, because he was probably hoping that he wouldn't be counterclaimed and could ride out the game looking like town. This would imply that he was, in fact, a blocker, but the scum blocker. I did not include the blocker in my plans because I am of the opinion that Nat was the blocker, and therefore there is no blocker remaining. That is what I am assuming, so therefore that will be reflected in my posts.

In fact, a mass claim would be excellent for the mafia if the role-blocker is still alive, because if we didn't lynch one of them, then the role blocker could block the doctor and the mafia could kill the vig, if he exists, or the innocent or the nurse followed the next night by the doctor, demolishing the town's advantage.

On second thought, isn't it kind of scummy of you to be asking for a mass claim?

Nice one. The whole "start at agreement but turn it around to suspicion" play. I like it. Unfortunately for you though, it doesn't matter. My plan has absolutely nothing to do with using the roles to secure a win. If Nat wasn't the blocker, then the blocker can block whoever he wants before he gets lynched. My plan will still work fine.

So, to answer your question, no, it is not scummy to suggest a massclaim, but from my experience it is a pretty decent indicator of scum to directly oppose one (example: In mini theme 568 all three of the scum, and only one of the townies opposed or were on the fence about a LyLo massclaim).

[Scheherazade]

@Kairyuu:

I notice a bit of a contradiction:

The last thing I don't really like is that you've laid this out. I might be partly responsible, because I was curious about your thinking. But now it looks like you're giving the scum a map to manipulate your system. Are you going to be able to trust anybody who becomes linked to your system now? He could be mafia trying to get in bed with the two masons.

Meh. It's out there because I am a firm believer in laying out any and all information I have for the town to pick apart if I am town. I do a little bit of it as scum too, but only null tells or weak stuff. I just find it to benefit the town way more to have all of my reasoning laid out in the thread in the event of my death.

Before I support this, what specifically will make it easier for the town? What scenarios do you envision?

I would like to say that, but I won't. Why? Because if I do then the scum know exactly what I am looking for. Besides, having the possibilities open makes it more likely for the scum to figure out a possible way around the trap.

From these, I can only assume that you believe your current plan will result in the identification of the scum players before you might die. That's why you refuse to share it with us.

It also indicates that your plan, if guessed correctly, can be avoided. Which means it isn't fool-proof: as long as the scum players don't guess what you're playing at, you'll be fine. If they do, your plan has the potential to kill the town's power-role advantage, at best.

Which means not only do you have extreme faith in your plan to begin with, but you have confidence that nobody else in this game will be able to predict your plan.

That brings me to the fact that I think a mass claim would help the scum more than town. Right now, the doctor and the other power-role are hidden with two other players and all of them are under suspicion. I think that represents a form of protection against the mafia.

If we mass claim, that gives us four vanilla claims to choose from to lynch mafia, but lets the mafia know who our power roles are.

If we don't mass claim, our doctor and final, unidentified power-role retain protection and the town has six players to choose two mafia from. If we're about to lynch, we can call for a claim and counter-claim.

Of the two options, I fully admit that I prefer the second unless you have a good reason to call for a mass claim. If you think that's scummy logic, lynch me.

As for this:

Nice one. The whole "start at agreement but turn it around to suspicion" play.

I never pretended to agree with you: I simply left the possibility open and voiced my biggest concern with your plan. That's why I said "before I support this" not "I support this but." You're getting illogical again when dealing with me.

[Scheherazade]

EBWOP:

Another way of stating my analysis in the second to last part of my post is this:

Assuming all claims are true thus far,

Without a claim, the town has 1/3 chance of going after scum, with the possibility of a last minute claim increasing our chances, while the scum has 1/2 chance of hitting a power role, with an incentive not to try to kill one because all four of their pool are under suspicion.

With a claim, the town has a 1/2 chance of going after scum, while the scum have a 1/1 chance of hitting the desired power-role with all incentive not to kill the doctor removed.

As we're at two mislynches to ly-lo, our chances of getting both the scum before losing are 1/4.

Of course this doesn't try to account for our ability to scum-hunt. But I don't like the numbers at all. Which is why I see your request for a mass claim as a request for our blind trust in you and asked to see your reasoning.

If somebody else can provide a compelling reason that won't compromise Kairyuu's master-plan, then I'm still willing to listen.

[Wall-E]

I find myself agreeing strongly with zade's insistence that the massclaim's benefits are outweighed by our anonymity.

Point to zade in my book.

[mykonian]

Kai, massclaim can wait. There is no haste. Let's see what happens. We can still mislynch a few times, and that is why there is no real need to do it now.

[CF Riot]

As we're at two mislynches to ly-lo.

I thought about it a lot last night and now I'm pro-massclaim. Regarding this quote, if a mass-claim lends us 4 vanillas consisting of 2 real vanillas and 2 scum, and we can have 2 mislynches w/o losing the game, then laying out the vanillas like this will ensure definite win, because even if you lynch wrong 2 times in a row the next 2 lynches should hit scum because that's all that is left.

[sekinj]

Just skimming right now. I'd be fine with a mass claim

[Wall-E]

I'll do it if EVERYONE does it.

[iamausername]

Votecount #29!

Scheherazade (2) - mykonian, Kairyuu
Shanba (1) - germy

Not Voting (6) - Scheherazade, Shanba, CF Riot, Wall-E, wolframnhart, sekinj

5 to lynch.

[Wall-E]

I would like those who suggested and agreed to the massclaim to go first. I'll volunteer to go third. All of this is predicated on EVERYONE agreeing to massclaim, to reiterate.

[Kairyuu]

I ran the numbers several times today, and I got an 87.5% town win rate if we massclaim, and that was assuming a low estimate on one scenerio.

unvote

because I want to see the claims now.

I think we should assume that I started, followed by myko, and the germy, because we have all claimed fully. I propose a popcorn style claim for the rest of you, starting with Zade (if no one has any objections).

[wolframnhart]

I have no objection to a popcorn style claim.

[Wall-E]

What is this "popcorn" style? Last claimant calls on the next one?

[Wall-E]

That's brilliant because the scum won't hand the ball to their own for fear of massclaim, so it ensures the scum go last.

[CF Riot]

I don't understand how that's "brilliant" but okay. Also, it's possible/likely town could hand off to scum not knowing that they did, so scum don't necessarily go last. I'm not especially worried about the order because I don't really know what you gain/lose by doing it different ways.

Everyone place your bets now and we'll see who guessed right at the end. I'm putting one lot on Zade/Wolf, and a smaller lot on Shanba/Sekinj.

[Kairyuu]

@CF Riot:

Everyone place your bets now and we'll see who guessed right at the end. I'm putting one lot on Zade/Wolf, and a smaller lot on Shanba/Sekinj.

Are you

trying

to give the scum more info than they need right now? We might have them on the ropes with the massclaim idea because they may not have planned for this situation, but now you want to give them the information about how each member of the town views the other members? Not a good idea in my opinion.

[Scheherazade]

Well, that's a majority of the town responding in favour. I'm ready to start, using the set-up proposed.

[Kairyuu]

Well then start, unless you have an alternative starter who you want to propose as an alternative.

[Scheherazade]

Not at all. I'm vanilla town. I think that CF Riot should claim next.

[CF Riot]

VT. Wall-E, cause he's probably online still.

[Kairyuu]

I would assume that 'VT' stands for vanilla townie, correct?

[Wall-E]

V

anilla

T

ownie here.

[Wall-E]

Kairyuu, go!

[Wall-E]

I have the greatest power role of them all.

[CF Riot]

I think we should assume that I started, followed by myko, and the germy, because we have all claimed fully.

Wall-E I think you should pick someone else. I suggest Sekinj or Wolf because they're both online right now.

@Kair: If you doubted yourself, yes I meant Vanilla Town.