Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

Votecount #27!

Natirasha (4) - mykonian, Shanba, germy, Kairyuu
Scheherazade (2) - Natirasha, sekinj
Shanba (1) - Wall-E

Not voting (4) - Scheherazade, wolframnhart, SilverPhoenix, CF Riot

6 to lynch.

[sekinj]

what a clusterfuck

thanks sha-HAIR-ah-zod

(pronounciation is key!)

I think it's SHEH - HEH - RA - ZADE

[Shanba]

My instinct says Natirasha is lying. If we accept germy/mykonian/kairyuu, and I am inclined to, then one of the rbers must be lying. Why? Because there was no SK kill last night. The only way that is possible with the SK being DI and BI (only 3t at max) is if both one of the claiming roleblockers and a further scum roleblocker targeted the sk last night: in other words, Zade or myself are sk, and the scum roleblocker blocked us as well as the one claiming in thread.

SP's play makes sense for a roleblocker who targeted me: Firstly, it is not until night that he begins to attack Artem; before that he had been lightly defending or neutral on him. Secondly, his suspicion is vague but enduring and justified by a reread - conforming to what I expect of a power role. Thirdly, he counterclaimed - in my experience, the counterclaimer is almost never mafia.

Coupled with my suspicions of Scigatt, my belief in germy/mykonian/kairyuu's claims and my belief that there is no SK, I'm pretty sure natirasha is scum. We gain nothing from lynching for information - the presence of a doc and the possibility of a gambit means we can't be sure of anything we do learn.

[mykonian]

To me, what ever Scigatt/nati will be, my suspicions will be the same.

At first, I thought the move of vote to zade to be suspicious (Sekinj). Wall-e isn't: he stated reasons.
SP is the roleblocker. I have not a lot to suspect SP, nati is scummy. He picked the powerrole with the least chance some other person would have it, chose absolutely the wrong person (zade is the only one scigatt defended) so that claim is dead. Let's lynch scum.
To Nati's counter: if you are not a roleblocker, we need only one D, to have a doctor that had a 50% chance of targeting the right mason.

We have no SK, because with all this town power, the SK's kills could hardly be protected.
I had germy maybe as SK, certainly no scum, or a backup power role, and because he is no SK, he spoke the truth.

Why said Nati-scum that he targetted zade: Wifom. Ultimate distancing. If one flips scum, the other is far from confirmed.

I think zade is scum, yet Nati is far more obvious. A shaky claim, a solid counterclaim. If Nati is scum, now he is spreading doubt. Don't let him succeed.

Conclusion: To roleblock a kill is hard. To doc-protect one of the two masons is easy. One of the two claims is wrong and I still think whe have a doc.

lynching the roleblockers target tell nothing about the RB.

Nati is scum, and not lynching the scummiest player is antitown, as the chance is bigger to mislynch on an other player (assuming (scumminess*constant)=(chance player is scum))

[sekinj]

@myk - I did state my reason. Zade was at the top of my suspect list before all the claim stuff came about. Then in post 715 I stated my after-claim reasoning...

[Wall-E]

To me, what ever Scigatt/nati will be, my suspicions will be the same.

At first, I thought the move of vote to zade to be suspicious (Sekinj). Wall-e isn't: he stated reasons.
SP is the roleblocker. I have not a lot to suspect SP, nati is scummy. He picked the powerrole with the least chance some other person would have it, chose absolutely the wrong person (zade is the only one scigatt defended) so that claim is dead. Let's lynch scum.
To Nati's counter: if you are not a roleblocker, we need only one D, to have a doctor that had a 50% chance of targeting the right mason.

We have no SK, because with all this town power, the SK's kills could hardly be protected.
I had germy maybe as SK, certainly no scum, or a backup power role, and because he is no SK, he spoke the truth.

I agree that we have no SK.

Why said Nati-scum that he targetted zade: Wifom. Ultimate distancing. If one flips scum, the other is far from confirmed.

I think zade is scum, yet Nati is far more obvious. A shaky claim, a solid counterclaim. If Nati is scum, now he is spreading doubt. Don't let him succeed.

Conclusion: To roleblock a kill is hard. To doc-protect one of the two masons is easy. One of the two claims is wrong and I still think whe have a doc.

They could both be telling the truth. It's a very slim percentage of likelyhood, so I won't push this issue beyond mentioning it.

lynching the roleblockers target tell nothing about the RB.

No, but the scum didn't kill last night...

Nati is scum, and not lynching the scummiest player is antitown, as the chance is bigger to mislynch on an other player (assuming (scumminess*constant)=(chance player is scum))

I could be convinced to lynch Nat. I'd still prefer my own choice, but I'll play ball with this suggestion if that doesn't pan out.

[CF Riot]

Okay, now that I had a night to sleep on it, I'm pretty sure Nati is by far the best lynch. I agree with pretty much everything that's been said (what a great blanket statement huh?) about how the presence of a doc negating most ties that come from the RB's flip. We can worry about that tomorrow though. Let's lynch scum.

Vote:Natirasha

L-1

[Wall-E]

What else should be discussed here?

[sekinj]

The thing said that made me think the most was when myk said that we shoudl lynch the scummiest player. I've been in games where I didn't follow that advice and it turned out bad for the town. So, although I think Zade would be a good lynch, I agree that Scig was the scummiest player, and Nat has only added to that with his claim.

unvote

We still have a week until deadline... so I don't think there shoudl be any rush to hammer.

[mykonian]

I think nati lies. The claim is not strong. However I don't think Shanba is scum, and he wanted to kill and was roleblocked. How big are the chances. A RB had in this case 1/11 chance to prevent the kill. A doc had 1/2 (guess the right mason). I would think it highly unlikely that there isn't a doc. I don't want to go to a lot of maths, but series of different letters are more likely then series of the same letter. (MMDBBTT) is more likely then (MMMBBTT). If we have a Vig, I would ask to kill Zade...

[wolframnhart]

I find it odd that SP says he blocked Shanba last night, hence the no vote, so he is voting Nat for claiming RB, yet Shanba says Nat is lying? Wouldn't Shanba try and refute Sp's claim or am i missing a big piece of the argument here?

[Wall-E]

This situation is extremely convoluted. I don't trust my understanding of things 100%, but I'm trying my best. If anyone can do a better job of summarizing the situation for me I think I'd be able to make a more informed decision.

[Scheherazade]

@wolframnhart: As has been pointed out by mykonian for one, it's more likely that the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor than the role-blocker at that point in the game.

If Shanba is town, then he can either confirm or not confirm that SilverPhoenix blocked him. Confirming would mean role-claiming, i.e. "I'm the cop and my night action was blocked." That would make both of them targets for the mafia, not just one. Also, it would cast suspicion on SilverPhoenix, which Shanba wouldn't want if he believes that Natirasha is lying. Being unable to confirm would mean that he's claiming vanilla. In that case, he doesn't know that SilverPhoenix is lying and he can't really argue that SilverPhoenix lies.

If Shanba is scum, then obviously he would have to claim a pro-town role to refute SilverPhoenix. Given our apparent knowledge of the set-up, that would be very, very risky, I think. It's also possible that if Shanba is scum that voting for Natirasha is a way of bussing someone who's a likely lynch.

@Wall-E and sekinj: I think you're both half right. What are you thanking me for, Wall-E?

@mykonian: If that happens, I submit an "I told you so" in advance, applicable to you, Kairyuu, the vig, and anybody who's voted for me for silly reasons.

[wolframnhart]

@wolframnhart: As has been pointed out by mykonian for one, it's more likely that the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor than the role-blocker at that point in the game.

If Shanba is town, then he can either confirm or not confirm that SilverPhoenix blocked him. Confirming would mean role-claiming, i.e. "I'm the cop and my night action was blocked." That would make both of them targets for the mafia, not just one. Also, it would cast suspicion on SilverPhoenix, which Shanba wouldn't want if he believes that Natirasha is lying. Being unable to confirm would mean that he's claiming vanilla. In that case, he doesn't know that SilverPhoenix is lying and he can't really argue that SilverPhoenix lies.

If Shanba is scum, then obviously he would have to claim a pro-town role to refute SilverPhoenix. Given our apparent knowledge of the set-up, that would be very, very risky, I think. It's also possible that if Shanba is scum that voting for Natirasha is a way of bussing someone who's a likely lynch.

@Wall-E and sekinj: I think you're both half right. What are you thanking me for, Wall-E?

@mykonian: If that happens, I submit an "I told you so" in advance, applicable to you, Kairyuu, the vig, and anybody who's voted for me for silly reasons.

Ok i think i am beginning to understand now, thank you.

[Wall-E]

What are you thanking me for, Wall-E?

I was being sarcastic. Thanks for the explaination (not sarcasm this time).

[SilverPhoenix]

I find it odd that SP says he blocked Shanba last night, hence the no vote, so he is voting Nat for claiming RB, yet Shanba says Nat is lying? Wouldn't Shanba try and refute Sp's claim or am i missing a big piece of the argument here?

If Shanba is town, then he can either confirm or not confirm that SilverPhoenix blocked him. Confirming would mean role-claiming, i.e. "I'm the cop and my night action was blocked." That would make both of them targets for the mafia, not just one. Also, it would cast suspicion on SilverPhoenix, which Shanba wouldn't want if he believes that Natirasha is lying. Being unable to confirm would mean that he's claiming vanilla. In that case, he doesn't know that SilverPhoenix is lying and he can't really argue that SilverPhoenix lies.

If Shanba is scum, then obviously he would have to claim a pro-town role to refute SilverPhoenix. Given our apparent knowledge of the set-up, that would be very, very risky, I think. It's also possible that if Shanba is scum that voting for Natirasha is a way of bussing someone who's a likely lynch.

That pretty much answered it. There is no evidence that Shanba was a blocked scum because of the existence of the doctor.
Also, I'm not voting just yet, considering Nat hasn't posted anything in defense in a while.

[Natirasha]

Read sig.

[mykonian]

Good luck Nati!

[Kairyuu]

I would hammer, but my vote is already there, so I must wait.

Also, in addition to NaNo (in my sig) I am grounded for about 2 weeks, which means I can only post at school and when my parents aren't around. I'll do my best to keep up, but I'll probably be rather lurky for awhile.

[Kairyuu]

Also

@Zade: 'I told you so' noted. I submit that you are using the appeal to emotion logical fallacy as my response.

[Wall-E]

How can zade be using something as your response? Can you reword that so I can understand it?

[Scheherazade]

Is there any reason not to hammer Natirasha now? Are we going to get more out of this?

@Kairyuu: No, it'll make me feel less stupid when I say "I told you so" out loud after you kill me.

[Kairyuu]

@Wall-E: To rephrase, I was saying that, in response to the statement, I was claiming it to be a logical fallacy. Sort of a joke, sort of serious, because this is the second or third time a similar thing happened.

@zade: Feel free to hammer. Nat is pretty much gone until deadline I would assume. I doubt we will get anything more from him.

[Wall-E]

Unvote: Vote: Natirasha

Let's see what this does.

[CF Riot]

@Wall-E: Thank you for not making the same old "hammer time" joke that everyone loves so much.