Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[mykonian]

zade, it would be a weak point on his own, so most times if I see it, and when it doesn't fit in, I won't tell it, but hey! there is more against you.

[Wall-E]

or

someone

wants

the claimants

to get lynched to save themselves some trouble.

What do you mean by this? Who is the bolded selection referring to? Who is the underlined bit referring to?

[mykonian]

mafia, isn't it obvious?

[germy]

I really need to hear reactions from Kairyuu and germy regarding the lack of a nightkill.

If we have an SK, the mafia was able to pinpoint exactly the player and the mafia roleblocker (yes,

THE

) blocked them. I doubt that is very likely at all. If we have a vig, I don't believe they would have tried on Night 1, considering the slight tendency toward town agreement to not kill on the first Night.

My previous post was before I had read any part of the thread. Just read through, and I agree with Wall-E. Not regarding my play, of course, but with his plans for the Day.

Unvote: Scherherazade

Vote: sekinj

[mykonian]

germy, I will be looking at you. Later in the game... I don't exactly like your posts, yet I doubt you are scum.

[germy]

I have always wanted to be a part of a mafia game where a good portion of the Town organizes within the first couple Days, then methodically lynches scum one by one. I believe this semi-open setup, and my original softclaim, allows for that possibility, and I believe we may see that happen this game.

At this point, if sekinj is mafia => Wall-E is town. The converse, and contrapositive, in this case, are also true. Which is why I'm voting sekinj instead of Scheherazade or Scigatt. I'm hoping we can go into Day 2 with Wall-E, myself, Kairyuu, and mykonian as "confirmed townies," and rally the rest of the Town into lynching the remaining scum.

My hopes, anyway.

[SilverPhoenix]

I've been looking over the thread again and I've been getting a bad feeling about Artem...
He begins by making his arguments against Kairyuu and afatchic (to a lesser extent) over isolated Posts 0-7, 9-14. A lot of the argument was semantic stuff (small contradiction for the opening vote, pulling 1/4 out of thin air, reacting at Kairyuu for defending afatchic's 1/4, etc.)

You're not my main attacker, Kair, you're simply scum who's building up suspicion on me, in case your attack on afatchic falls through and you need somebody else to pounce on. Notice how you jumped from Germy onto afatchic:

He isn't? Then who was? I know this quote is from a while ago, but then you "jumped" from Kairyuu to Zade in order to deflect suspicion since the guy that you built your entire case against claimed town. You then were largely out of discussion for the time up until your hammer (I know you where V/LA for a couple of days), in which you immediately regretted. Publicly stating your regret is not town-like at all, as it means you worry too much about how your vote sounded and how the lynched is going to affect the town. Considering that springlullaby's main suspicion was on you, I would definitely be worried about my image too. Just not publicly.

Vote: Artem

Artem: What do you think about the lack of a nightkill?

I am also not sure why people are just moving back to their original targets of the lynch. In my eyes, it is too easy to do that...I think there was a lot of juicy stuff before the lynch.

[Wall-E]

mafia, isn't it obvious?

Obvious or not, it's important I get an answer.

[Kairyuu]

@Zade:

As far as my reasoning for voting springlullaby, my reason c was the same reasoning you gave. Therefore, your problem isn't with insufficient cause. That indicates to me that one of the other reasons I gave seemed scummy to you. Which reason is it and would you care to elaborate?

Gladly:

a) because I think springlullaby's posts over the past few pages haven't actually given me much insight into her thinking despite being asked questions I too want answered, which might be a tactic of scum, b) because she's reacted poorly to the criticism offered so far and to the votes against her, c) because I want to work out a compromise, and d) because my number one suspect, Sekinj, has gone on record strongly against springlullaby and I hope spring's alignment might strengthen or weaken my case against Sekinj (I'm keeping bussing in mind, too, don't worry).

a. That was my inital reasoning for being suspicious of her, so this could just be latching onto the reasoning of the "confirmed" townie.

b. This is valid.

c. Also valid, because otherwise there would have probably been a No Lynch.

d. This could very easily be a scum reason. Essentially you say that you are going to lynch SL, who (as scum) you know is town so that you (as scum) can go after sekinj D2.

I'm calling this right now. If Zade is scum, then sekinj is most likely town. If sekinj is scum, Zade is probably town. If Zade is town, it tells us nothing about sekinj, and if sekinj is town, then Zade is above 50% for being scum. I see more information in the sekinj lynch, so I will seriously consider moving to her soon.

And not to put more pressure on you (the APs are well worth your time, if you ever doubt that, believe me), but I just wanted to mention the rereading you promised, lest you forget it in the excitement of the new day.

I forgot. I'll try to do it soon when I have time.

@Scigatt:

Okay, what the heck is the case on Scheherazade? I've read hers and afat's posts but nothing seems scummy enough to warrant this attention.

Read my and myko's posts from D1. Both of us outlined out own specific cases several times.

@Wall-E:

What do you mean by this? Who is the bolded selection referring to? Who is the underlined bit referring to?

Are you serious? The "someone" is the scum, and "the claimants" are me, myko, and germy, you know, the people who have claimed their roles. That could not have been more obvious.

@Everyone: I am almost positive that there is no SK. The SK automatically has the DI and BI abilities, making it's kills almost inevitable. The fact that there was no kill last night means that we either have 2 docs and the mafia failed to kill (or we have 1 blocker) in which case germy is either a backup RB or lying scum, or we have a doc who protected the mafia's target, and two town RBs (or one and one) blocked the SK in ehich case germy could be either backup doc or RB (or lying scum). There might be some other possibility that I missed, but I think that the much more likely scenerio is that there is no SK, and we merely need to find the scum. Keep in mind that the SK would be obligated to submit a kill.

[SilverPhoenix]

That could not have been more obvious.

Not necessarily to a recent replacement.

[Scheherazade]

@Kairyuu: What's the major difference you see between this:

d) because my number one suspect, Sekinj, has gone on record strongly against springlullaby and I hope spring's alignment might strengthen or weaken my case against Sekinj (I'm keeping bussing in mind, too, don't worry).

And this:

I'm calling this right now. If Zade is scum, then sekinj is most likely town. If sekinj is scum, Zade is probably town. If Zade is town, it tells us nothing about sekinj, and if sekinj is town, then Zade is above 50% for being scum. I see more information in the sekinj lynch, so I will seriously consider moving to her soon.

Because I've been advocating lynching Sekinj since my first substantial post, you think that knowing her alignment will give you a strong indicator of mine, right? What's the difference between that and saying that because Sekinj is so certain that springlullaby deserves to be lynched, knowing springlullaby's alignment will give me insight into Sekinj's?

[iamausername]

Votecount #19

sekinj (3) - Wall-E, CF Riot, germy
Scheherazade (2) - mykonian, Kairyuu
Artem (1) - SilverPhoenix

Not voting (5) - Scheherazade, Artem, Scigatt, wolframnhart, sekinj

6 to lynch.

[Kairyuu]

@Zade: It's all in the intention really. I would prefer to lynch you, and then have that determine how I see sekinj, because I don't really want to lynch her when I am confident that you are scum. She gives me mixed reads, and I wish to use your lynch as a clarifying point about her, whereas you wanted to use SL's lynch to further you own agenda.

Yes, I know I said I would move my vote, but I would really rather lynch the one I actually believe is scum. I will however, still vote sekinj if it looks like that is going to be the play for the day and nothing i do will change it (because I agree with germy about the whole unified town thing).

The comment about her lynch providing more information is just that if you turn up town it won't really tell me anything about her, since she hasn't made her stance on you very clear. The fact that I think you will flip scum means that I am willing to bank on that chance, but that you may win again and survive the day if the rest of the town wants you to.

So essentially they are the same thing, and it is merely the implications of each that differenciate them.

[Scheherazade]

@Kairyuu: I'm still slightly confused. It seems to me that your position when you declared a willingness to lynch Sekinj is a hope that her lynch will clarify my alignment to you. You've explained that you'd prefer the reverse, my lynch clarifying Sekinj's alignment, but see her lynch as more likely. However, as it stands, you've declared an interest in using an approaching lynch as evidence against me, your target for most of the game.

Now, is it the fact that I said "my case against" rather than "my suspicions about" Sekinj the reason why you think I'm advancing an agenda separate from the agenda of the town? I know that I didn't write this nearly so explicitly as you, but when I wrote that I had in mind the possibility that springlullaby would turn up mafia, clearing Sekinj. That's why I included the "or weaken" and mentioned, parenthetically, that I was keeping the possibility of bussing in mind. I'd only have said that if I had in mind the idea of letting off Sekinj due to springlullaby being confirmed mafia.

Do you really think that our intentions are that different?

[Wall-E]

@Wall-E:

What do you mean by this? Who is the bolded selection referring to? Who is the underlined bit referring to?

Are you serious? The "someone" is the scum, and "the claimants" are me, myko, and germy, you know, the people who have claimed their roles. That could not have been more obvious.

Thanks for clarification. You can take me at face value. If I start cussing at you, I think you're town and being dumb. If I ask a straight question, I'm just clarifying.

If I build a case on you, you're scum.

[Kairyuu]

@Zade: What it really boild down to is, like I said, the implications of the statement. Yours gves me the impression that you somehow know of SL's towniness, which implies that you would be using it as a way to fabricate a stronger case against sekinj. You also implied (seemingly, correct me if I'm wrong. I don't want to be a hypocrite) that even if SL was scum, you would be going after sekinj (because 'weaken' would mean the case was still there). The fact that you would be going after sekinj even if SL was scum seems to indicate that you already knew the result of the cardflip.

I probably just made it more complicated for you rather than clearer, but that is the way my mind works. It's like a convoluted series of cause and effect, so if you can follow it feel free to comment, and if you can't, then I'll pick it apart myself and try to explain a bit better.

@Wall-E: Fair enough, except for the part about you only building cases against scum, because that would imply that you are always town, and always right (which cannot possibly be the case).

Any comments on my arguments against Zade?

[sekinj]

So... Apparently my lynch would confirm Wall-e as scum and partially confirm Shez as scum?

[Kairyuu]

@sekinj: Where do you get that your lynch will confirm Wall-E as scum? I never said that. Wall-E is completely unrelated to your lynch as far as I can tell.

[Kairyuu]

Wait. I missed that he was voting you.

It still doesn't change anything, because if I said that both he and Zade were scum if you flipped town, then I would have to say that so is everyone else who ever votes you, and we can't have that many scum.

[Scheherazade]

I think she's referring to germy's post, number 480, which I'm not sure I follow either.

germy, what makes you think that Sekinj and Wall-E are necessarily on opposite teams?

[sekinj]

@sekinj: Where do you get that your lynch will confirm Wall-E as scum? I never said that. Wall-E is completely unrelated to your lynch as far as I can tell.

well, I don't see the connection either. germy is the one who said that. I don't understand it at all.

At this point, if sekinj is mafia => Wall-E is town. The converse, and contrapositive, in this case, are also true. Which is why I'm voting sekinj instead of Scheherazade or Scigatt. I'm hoping we can go into Day 2 with Wall-E, myself, Kairyuu, and mykonian as "confirmed townies," and rally the rest of the Town into lynching the remaining scum.

I also don't like how shez seems to love everything that wall-e is saying, like it's gospel or something.


And @Wall-E - I don't appreciate your reasons being kept secret. If you have a case against me, then bring it, otherwise unvote. I'm not going to sit here mute while you continue voting for me with zero justification.

[sekinj]

I also don't like how shez seems to love everything that wall-e is saying, like it's gospel or something.

scratch this. she just questioned him on something

[Artem]

1. Doctor saved the target.
2. Mafia is scared of killing an obvious player.
---I'm not sure I follow here, though. What would they lose by killing germy?
3. Myk and Kairyuu are mafia and have refrained from killing to put off the time when we have any solid evidence that they're a scum-team not masons.
---Even if this were the case, germy seems like a safe choice, unless germy is the third mafia player.
4. The mafia has refrained from killing to cast suspicion on Myk and Kairyuu.
5. The mafia is content letting all the town live due to the suspicion of town players.

There's also a whole host of possibilities involving a serial killer and pro-town blockers.

I've been looking over the thread again and I've been getting a bad feeling about Artem...
He begins by making his arguments against Kairyuu and afatchic (to a lesser extent) over isolated Posts 0-7, 9-14. A lot of the argument was semantic stuff (small contradiction for the opening vote, pulling 1/4 out of thin air, reacting at Kairyuu for defending afatchic's 1/4, etc.)
Artem wrote:
You're not my main attacker, Kair, you're simply scum who's building up suspicion on me, in case your attack on afatchic falls through and you need somebody else to pounce on. Notice how you jumped from Germy onto afatchic:

He isn't? Then who was? I know this quote is from a while ago, but then you "jumped" from Kairyuu to Zade in order to deflect suspicion since the guy that you built your entire case against claimed town. You then were largely out of discussion for the time up until your hammer (I know you where V/LA for a couple of days), in which you immediately regretted. Publicly stating your regret is not town-like at all, as it means you worry too much about how your vote sounded and how the lynched is going to affect the town. Considering that springlullaby's main suspicion was on you, I would definitely be worried about my image too. Just not publicly.
Vote: Artem

1. Kair was not my main attacker because I was convinced he was scum. Why do you assume somebody had to occupy the role of a main attacker?
2. I didn't "jump" on Zade. I was suspicious of afat before Kair surpassed him in scuminess. (You yourself said that I was suspicious of afat.) After Kair claimed, I went to my #2 suspect at the time. It makes sense to me.
3. I didn't regret my vote. I regretted the fact that I asked all those questions of SL, when my vote ended up being the hammer. Frankly, I forgot that players that got lynched could speak during twilight, so she could really have answered them there. She chose not to.

Artem: What do you think about the lack of a nightkill?

In general, I try not to speculate about lack of a night-kill, unless it makes sense (For example, using the no NK, I've caught inactive scum in the past: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8999)

But in this setup, there are simply too many possibilities to make any kind of a good educated guess. Could be a lucky doc, could be a lucky pro-town RB, could be a missed deadline. *shrugs*

[Wall-E]

@Wall-E: Fair enough, except for the part about you only building cases against scum, because that would imply that you are always town, and always right (which cannot possibly be the case).

I was being facetious.

[sekinj]

I also don't like how shez seems to love everything that wall-e is saying, like it's gospel or something.

scratch this. she just questioned him on something

actually - scratch the scratch, she was questioning germy not wall-e.