Mafia 83 - Game Ended Scum Win!

[qwints]

no..I had no info on Alvins. And I'm not telling you what claim it is but i'd appreciate if no one else claimed. Hasdgfas is not townie.

I blocked Alvinz. I thought it wasn't as conclusize night 1.

I'll

unvote

because the claim deserves consideration. But I have a big problem with the contradiction between these two statements.

[qwints]

Hear are some thoughts about players out of the spotlight at the moment.

Reading..

This is killa seven's only post since day 1. He had 7 posts on day 1. Killa, I want to hear your opinion about Panzer's claim.

HOS: killa seven

Chaz - I think he's now confirmed town if jebus flips doc. - Should we expect more than two power roles that can prevent kills?

Jebus - Why is he still alive? If panzer is telling the truth, does that confirm jebus?

Mana_Ku - no read at the moment

reclusion - on a four week vacation, too little information

xtomx - no read despite solid activity

[hasdgfas]

Doubt it

Then why the two-part death flavor?

[Jebus]

I blocked Alvinz. I thought it wasn't as conclusize night 1. Especially because jebus proced some one random ass, i wasn't sure. I'm more sure on Cow.

Wait, what? This doesn't make sense to me (probably because of spelling errors >.<)

[Jebus]

Hear are some thoughts about players out of the spotlight at the moment.

Reading..

This is killa seven's only post since day 1. He had 7 posts on day 1. Killa, I want to hear your opinion about Panzer's claim.

HOS: killa seven

Chaz - I think he's now confirmed town if jebus flips doc. - Should we expect more than two power roles that can prevent kills?

Jebus - Why is he still alive? If panzer is telling the truth, does that confirm jebus?

Mana_Ku - no read at the moment

reclusion - on a four week vacation, too little information

xtomx - no read despite solid activity

Because I protected Chaz does not confirm him as townie. He could still be the SK, or any other third party role (eg. survivor).

I'm still alive probably because I'm still lynchbait <_<

reclusion was replaced, wasn't he?

@ The bit about two kill blocking roles - Doc + Roleblocker :/

Personally, I don't quite believe panzer, though it does hold a tad of plausibility. Rereading time.

[qwints]

1. AFAIK Reclusion wasn't replaced
2. If there are only two players who can stop a mafia kill
and If the mafia tried to kill someone night one
and If Panzer is telling the truth about being a roleblocker who blocked Alvinz
and If Jebus is a doctor.
then chaz is town.

[hasdgfas]

2. If there are only two players who can stop a mafia kill
and If the mafia tried to kill someone night one
and If Panzer is telling the truth about being a roleblocker who blocked Alvinz
and If Jebus is a doctor.
then chaz is town.

Can you elaborate? I have no idea how you can get that.

[qwints]

Whoops, I didn't think enough about the possibility of chaz being a 3rd party role. Jebus is correct when he says that chaz could still be a 3rd party.

So add a "if chaz is not a third party" to my last post.

[hasdgfas]

I still don't understand how you can say that. What assumptions are you making that lead you to that? I don't see logical steps.

[qwints]

The more I think about it, the more I think my main problem is a failure of imagination at possible roles.

As I noted above, Jebus correctly pointed out an error in my reasoning. Just b/c the mafia tried to kill chaz doens't make him town as he could be a serial killer.

I'll explain my (flawed) thinking:

The mafia didn't kill on night one. They either chose not to kill or were blocked. It seems most likely that they chose to kill. (Unless they were trying to validate jebus's claim)

I think it is most likely that the mafia attempted to kill someone. They obviously didn't kill Yaw (unless there is a role that could make them kill mafia when they targeted non-mafia.) So they must have been blocked, i.e. roleblocked or had a doc protect their target.

There are a limited number of players who can stop a mafia kill. 2 out of 14 seems reasonable, 3 would seem like a lot. Panzer claims he blocked a townie, alvinz, night one. If he is a roleblocker, that would be 1 of 2 accounted for, assuming only 2 power roles capable of blocking kills. (Perhaps an unjustified assumption.)

If jebus is a doctor, he would therefore be the only player capable of stopping the mob kill on night one. He says he protected chaz on night one. There's no reason a doctor would lie about who he protected. (An assumption I failed to note.) Therefore the mafia tried to kill chaz a night one.

I then concluded that if the mafia tried to kill chaz, then chaz was town. (This is just plain wrong.)

I retract my statement for the reasons listed above. The fact that I missed the third party possibility makes the whole thing a non sequitor. I hope this makes it clear why I came to the incorrect conclusion that I did.

[Jebus]

Either way, there's a good chance of Chaz being town. 3/14 are mafia, 1-2/14 are 3rd party. So 1-2/11 chance Chaz is 3rd party (as the SK or possible survivor).
And note the numbers are estimations, not definites.

[chazworthington]

The sun started to reach over the mountains and 9 people slowly gathered around to the town's center. They looked around but could not find Battle Mage or iamausername! They had both disappeared. The 9 people broke into two groups to find where each person was. The first group found BM, who had a bullet wound right in the center of his forehead. Then, they noticed that Battle Mage's face had hearts with Iamusername all over it. They knew that
Battle Mage was Iamausername's lover
As thus, the first group found the second group and helped them find Iamausername. Tovarish was extremely bored and decided to make a wishing coin go into the local lake.

Here he found Iamausername stuck at the bottom of the lake with a knife stabbed directly in his heart. The Knif'es handle was engraved with "Battle Mage, my love, my moon in the evening, I will miss you dearly".

This confirmed the fact that
Iamausername was Battle Mage's lover
The 9 villagers decided to go back to the center of town to avenge all of those souls that have been lost to the dreaded scum.

Above is the flavor for the deaths of Battlemage and iamuser. There should be no question that Battlemage was NKed. The bolded part is what we're disagreeing with: my initial read was that iamuser was committing suicide via his lover role. I'd agree that there was only one kill, or possibly that battlemage was targeted by both the mafia and SK/vig. It would be a hell of a coincidence that both lovers were NKed in the same night. I doubt this is going to yield anything, but it probably should be asked:

@Mod:

Can you confirm if iamuser was NKed or committed suicide?


Regarding Panser's claim:

Netman came pretty close to claiming he had a role D1, which is a point in his favor. But I really don't like how he went after Alvinz without any explanation D2.

I think the fact that both Jebus and Panser are both alive right now is very suspicious. It still bothers me the way Yaw went for Jebus at the end of the day, when we would have had enough votes to lynch Netman.

@Panser:

Can you explain, after you saw the results of N1 and heard the night action Jebus claimed, why you still pushed hard for Alvinz's lynch without providing any explanation?

[chazworthington]

That's a strange mistake to make Jebus ...

That said, a sk hitting a suicidal lover seems unlikely (although the text on the first page does seem to suggest a double kill similar to alvinz's lynch + modkill.) I'm willing to proceed under the theory that we have a serial killer for the moment.

If panzer is to be trusted, I don't understand why we shouldn't lynch a known sk. Isn't a known sk a plus for scum?

1) The town has to have the sk dead to win.
2) The scum can simply endgame the sk
3) The sk is significantly more likely to hit town than scum
4) Every two extra townies killed costs the town a chance to lynch.
5) We're more likely to hit scum the day after we lynch the sk (assuming a nk)

So, if we trust panzer, we must lynch hascow today. I am unwilling to trust panzer, however, before he makes a full claim and allows an opportunity to counterclaim.

Regarding this post:

Based on points 1) AND 2), doesn't that mean that it is in the SK's best interest to try and kill scum right now?

My concern about going after a SK now is that the town doesn't have much room for error to win, even if we do lynch the SK today. Hunting for the SK lets the mafia hide another day, and they already got a huge gift D2.

I really think we need to find scum today. And I think we need to give extra attention to those looking for the SK.

[qwints]

My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

[MafiaSSK]

Any NK that is made is only one action unless a role has other ways in which it could die. If both happen on the same night then its a two part death.

[Xtoxm]

My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

Yes, I pretty much agree with this. It does have to be removed for town to win, and it's absense is one less kill a night. But if unknown, the larger scum team should be sought.

I also fail to see how Panzer's claim would in any way make Cow SK.

[Xtoxm]

Hmm...About the protective roles topic, it varies massively between games, that it's really hard to make an estimate. For example, i've seen (atleast one) games with no protective roles, and another I played in had about 6 or 7. Those are pretty much the extremes, but just to illustrate the point.

[Xtoxm]

Stabbed through the heart

and then

drowned in a lake

Although SSK was (probably intentionly) vague, I still think this was a double kill.

[qwints]

I agree that it looks like a double kill.

[chazworthington]

I agree that it looks like a double kill.

Agreed. My bad.

We've got a few problems here at the moment. K7 isn't contributing at all. Reclusion was never temporarly replaced as far as I can tell. And we've got a deadline approaching.

In Yaw's list of players D1, he mentioned that Cow was unjustly targeted D1. That might be the closest thing we have to Yaw defending another player.

Yaw also stated he was going after the lurkers. Looking at who's been posting alot D1 and not so muchafterwords, Mana_ku sticks out like a sore thumb.

Of these two, I like Mana over Cow. She's stated earlier that we needed more than 6-7 pages to make conclusions. We're at 19 now and I'm still not seeing anything.

Unvote; Vote: Mana

[chazworthington]

My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

And my point is that if we do that today, then we start D4 with 7 players and most likely only one mislynch as our margin of error. And that's not just the town, the SK is also in the same position. Since our interests are aligned at the moment, it's in the SK's best interest to target scum at night, and in our best interest to not lynch him today.

[hasdgfas]

In Yaw's list of players D1, he mentioned that Cow was unjustly targeted D1. That might be the closest thing we have to Yaw defending another player.

I find that scum more often defend townies than their partners. Have I actually done anything scummy to make you think I'm scum? Or are you just thinking that based on dead scum "defending me" and Panzer's terrible "info" on me?

[qwints]

My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

And my point is that if we do that today, then we start D4 with 7 players and most likely only one mislynch as our margin of error. And that's not just the town, the SK is also in the same position. Since our interests are aligned at the moment, it's in the SK's best interest to target scum at night, and in our best interest to not lynch him today.

Are you saying the sk is basically a vig for the purposes of today? It's not like the sk knows who is scum and who isn't, so the question appears to be if the chance of the sk hitting scum tonight is greater than the chance of them hitting town.

Mod: can we get a prod on killler7?

[killa seven]

Hear are some thoughts about players out of the spotlight at the moment.

Reading..

This is killa seven's only post since day 1. He had 7 posts on day 1. Killa, I want to hear your opinion about Panzer's claim.

HOS: killa seven

His claim is believeable, i dont think he would come out and fake claim on day 2, i have never played with him but it doesnt seem likely.

As for the night kills it does look like there was 2 kills last night and just happened to be both lovers, BM is allways vocal in all his games and have seen him killed before, as for username he was vocal in this game so maybe thats why he was targetted. right now im looking at the alvinz wagon it seemed to pick up speed fast and alot of people just seemed to hop on. more thoguhts later.. sorry i havent been around personal issues.. feel free to ask me questions.

[Jebus]

People jumped on Alvinz because he claimed scum and asked to by lynched. He even hammered himself. I don't think there'll be too much to gain from it :/

@qwints and Chaz: For today (and possibly the next few days as well) the SK is most likely going to act as a vig, and in that case, like a townie as well. The more townies that go, the more likely the mafia's kill (by chance, since kill is quasi-random) will hit the SK. I've got a pretty good idea as to who our SK is, as I'm sure some others do, which will limit our guesswork, but for now, let's focus on scum.