Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

Votecount #8!

Kairyuu (5) - afatchic, CF Riot, Artem, sekinj, germy
afatchic (2) - Kairyuu, mykonian
sekinj (1) - wolframnhart
Artem (1) - springlullaby

Not Voting (3) - alvinz95, Ku_F, Scigatt

7 to lynch.

-=wolframnhart replaces Nightwolf=-

[CF Riot]

Sekinj's vote looks like a wagon-hop to me. All the justification for the vote looks good, but he wasn't the first to say it AND he made 2 posts after that quote by Kairyuu, before posting this logic and voting him.

Mykonian's strange, blatant defense of Kairyuu is throwing me for a loop. I'm not sure if I think it's scummy though. Some of it makes sense.

Germy, germy, you're pinging my scumdar.

Can you verbalize this a little more? How, why, etc.?

[Kairyuu]

Seems I forgot about the godfather and it led to two more votes on me. Oh well. I'm at L-2, so do you guys want me to claim now? Or when I get another vote?

I'll respond to the points against me thus far now:

@CF Riot:

Really? That's his mastermind attempt to stop all the pro-town conversation? Confuse us with random votes?

Really? You think I had an actual case against him? I FOSed him, nothing more. I like FOSing people. I do it alot, and not always to people I am fully convinced are scummy. I merely pointed out what, at that point, struck me as odd.

False. Edify joined September 29th, two days before the game began.

Accident. For some reason I thought I saw a July on his join date. My bad. But if you are actually trying to use that as a point against me, then you must not be confident in your case at all.

Surely you don't really believe this. They're not concrete of course, but almost nothing in this game ever is. Still, you can't seriously tell me a person's relative experience means nothing in judging their actions. Maybe Edify is a mafia expert who has played for years under a different handle, and made that account just to come play in this game with the advantage of appearing like a newbie. Maybe he actually is a newbie, and wanted to random vote because as far as he knows, that's what you do at the beginning of a game. Which do you think is more likely?

I stand by my point. The simple fact that both of your situations are possible, no matter how unlikely, means that you can't judge people by their join dates.

Also not entirely true. I didn't look it up but I know for a fact that I never attacked him on it, and I have thought he is more likely town than scum from his first post on. However that detail is minor.

The point that I need to refute here is, I don't find you suspicious because you attacked Germy. I would find it very strange if no one attacked him.

I find you suspicious because you attacked Germy AND Edify AND afatchic so hard over such weak evidence. I personally think Sekinj was your strongest case, but at the time you FoS'd him it was for "active lurking to the extreme" on page 3. You're trying too hard to make cases out of thin-air.

Bolded: That bit is weak. I believe that I mentioned not going back and checking, so it's not all that surprising to me that I missed a person, but this tidbit from your first post:

Forgive me for keeping the possibility open that you're lying. =]

makes it seem like even though you were not attacking him, you were keeping the option open to do so. That doesn't sound like thinking him more likely to be either alignment.

Italics: Forgive me if I find more than one person scummy at once. It's the way I play. And by the way, it was quite early in the game, and there was very little strong evidence to go on. So of course my arguments were somewhat weak. Not everyone likes to sit back and not vote or FOS, or even take a real stance at all, for several pages.

Also, on the null tell thing. I think scum over-react worse, and more often than town to accusations made against them. I also think that in the context of the game, a person can reasonably judge whether the reaction is scummy or not by the way they do. I'll try to come up with an example of each, to show the difference if you want.

I would most certainly like the examples if you don't mind, because I would have to say that your opinion is merely that, an opinion. To prove that, I will also begin looking for an example of my own. Mine being of a townie overreacting worse than a scum in the same game. Will that prove to you that it is a null tell?

@Springlullaby:

Are you asking to be copped tonight so you can be confirmed?

No. I have something else in mind. There is more than one way to get confirmed.

Are you, in the same paragraph, stating that if you can't be confirmed, you are willing to be lynched tomorrow?

Yes, but more because I am confident I am correct, or that I can be confirmed. If I'm going to be lynched, then it will probably be today.

Explain in which situation it is ideal for a cop to come out D2 in the interest of revealing a negative investigation.

Look at Newbie 661. We broke the game by having the cop claim D2 with his investigation of a townie. I'd say that was a good idea. That's irrelevant though, because I am not insisting on an investigation, but something else.

Explain how any given cop should be taking such a risk for someone who have stated their willingness to be lynched if they can't be confirmed.

Never said that they should. I would actually suggest not investigating me tonight (unless things do not go the way I planned). Automatically assuming I'm asking for a cop claim is not the best move.

Explain why I shouldn't be voting you right now.

Is that a threat? Unfortunately, you do not scare me. I am reasonably confident in this town, and hopeful that if I am lynched, the scum will still be found.

To actually answer your question, I don't think you should be voting me for several reasons. I am aggressive, which, if you believe I am town, is a big help in finding the scum, because my method of scumhunting allows me to make the scum slip up more easily. Also, I have been actively scumhunting, whereas an unfortunately large amount of the town has not. And of course, the reason everyone would probably expect to be obvious coming from me, because afatchic is a much better place for your vote.

Ok, is it just me or this sounds like a mafia godfather talking?

Well, I could most certainly see it as having come from the godfather if I was in your shoes, so I will concede that you are right, it does sound that way. What I find odd is that this is the only thing you bothered to respond to from my entire post. You seem to be trying to evade everything else I said by pushing a small part of what I said. I think you need to go through the wiki section about logical fallacies, because you seem to be using quite a few of them.

@sekinj:

Actually - as days go by there is more and more reason to vote afat instead of less, since he is not defending at all....

My sentiments exactly.

This is just a bad logic/thought process for a townie.

For a town person to want to an an investigation basically wasted on them or the alternative to accept a D2 lynch?

either way we've either wasted a power for the night or lost 2 townies instead of one.

I think this is more likely arrogant scum knowing they will invesigate cleanly and get a free pass to the end of the game. If he gets a townie lynched D1, and then gets cleared N1... He really will have a free ride until endgame.

It looks liek Artem thought the same, and that makes me think he really was just defending himself against and over-the-top attack by Kair.

Bolded: Firstly, I never asked for an investigation. I mentioned hoping I could be confirmed, which was my way of implying that I could be confirmed. Secondly, I said that I would submit to a lynch if I couldn't be confirmed, which I do believe I can be.

Italics: Or perhaps you could consider the alternative: A townie confident in his ability to get confirmed, and also confident that the person he is voting is scum. Because that is what I am.

Underlined: Artem said it sounded like a godfather speaking. Which has nothing to do with our argument. I'm surprised I have to mention this again after calling Artem out about it already, but that thinking is called Correlation Implies Collaboration, and is a logical fallacy. Just because Artem thought the same way as you did on a single point does not mean that everything he has said has been pro-town, and just because a single thing I said could be interpreted as something scum might say, does not automatically mean that everything I have said is scummy.

@Scigatt:

I one that I can think of right off the bat is when you made that implicit FoS and insisted on not making one.

You too? Firstly, that is not reaching by any stretch of the imagination, and secondly, I never FOSed him in the section he mentioned, implicit or otherwise. He was the one reaching by claiming that the FOS was there when it wasn't.

You also seemed a lot more emotional in the debate with Artem, and I know from experience that being overly emotional can hamper judgement.

I would appeciate proof of that if you don't mind. Because the way I see it, neither of us were being emotional, unless you count getting irritated as being emotional, in which case we both were, because both of us were convinced that the other was misinterpreting the other's entire position.

@germy:

If you are Town, you should always fight your lynch, no matter how much "sense" you know it might make to the rest of the Town that you look like scum.

I both agree and disagree. I agree in that a townie should try to prevent their own lynch in favor of one they think to be better, but I disagree in that if a townie is almost certainly going to get lynched, they should submit rather than flail to their death, because a flailing townie hurts the town more than a townie who realizes that they are as good as dead and doesn't fight against it.

I think you (mykonian) and Kairyuu are scum. If Kairyuu is scum, it would kinda clear afatchic, as well as implicate you for defending and agreeing with him.

And if I am town? Does that implicate afatchic? Does it clear mykonian?

I'm not going to say one way or another whether a cop should investigate Kairyuu, especially since I'm voting for his lynch. However, the problem is that Kairyuu practically asked to be investigated, and is now a large reason why I find him suspicious.

Wrong. I asked to be confirmed. There is a big difference, which you will understand in due time.

I believe Kairyuu is likely to be scum, at this point, and mykonian is his scum-buddy.

That amuses me.

@everyone: Personally, I agree with everything mykonian has said. He is the only person so far that has correctly interpreted my actions. Of course, he also irritates me, because he provided me with motivations, which means you cannot determine if I came up with this reasoning on my own, or just went with what he said.

All I am asking is that you allow me to claim before you lynch me, because mykonian is right, I have a power role (but won't claim it until it is called for).

On another note, afatchic comes back every couple of days promising a good post that same day or the next, and then, nothing. Never posts the information he is being asked for, and then comes back again later (to avoid a prod) to say essentially the same thing. So far all he has done is say that I was wrong when I called him out for contradicting himself, and then when I showed him where the contradiction was, all he said was "I'll get to it later" and "Everyone is ganging up on me." I am most certainly confident that he is scum, trying to hide long enough for a townie (me) to get lynched in his stead.

[wolframnhart]

Finished reading, lot of things to go through for nine pages. Firstly hello Sekinj, been awhile since I have played with you. Secondly

unvote sekinj

since my predecessor had his vote there and I do not agree with his voting of Sekinj atm. Secondly I am not really sold on the Kar case, and I do not think that Myko is doing him any favors by defending him as he is. If Kar flips scum, then myko will be looked at hard the next day if scum leave him alive due to that defense. If everyone decides Kar's defense is good enough to unvote him for now because they don't want to risk lynching a power role, and for whatever reasons they vote Myko, then if Myko flips scum Kar will once again be looked at because a scum member had defended him as hard as he did. Also:

1. I think indeed afatchic is scum. If so, it would kinda clear Kairyuu.

2. if afat isn´t scum, Kairyuu promises us a story. I want to hear that story. Good story, we let him live, bad story, we lynch him. But I repeat, don´t investigate him as cop, because if Kairyuu is scum, it probably doesn´t matter.

3. Look at Kairyuu´s play. I don´t know how he usually play´s, yet the whole thing screams town to me.

If I were scum, day one wouldn´t be the day to make a lot of noise, to attract attention, and if I´m a godfather, I wouldn´t ask for a investigation day 1. It doesn´t fit. Same counts for Artem.

I want to look at Kairyuu again day 2, because then we have all the information necessary to decide on his lynch. The lynch, maybe the nightkill clears something, and Kairyuu´s story.

It could stop us from lynching a power role.

Bolded i did. I really don't like that part of your post Myko because all it is is WIFOM. Who cares how you would act in Kar's situation, you are giving him a defense based on your play, and that is not the topic at hand here. And asking us just to look at his play is doing nothing at all for Kar, because everyone's play is different depending on the game, the set up, the players involved, and the role given. And even if I don't agree with the case on Kar right now, i really don't like the second bolded either. What you are doing here is asking us o wait on a lynch, when players do feel that they have the info they want to lynch Kar, even if you don't, so we can have the info to lynch him tomorrow? That's basically saying "Let's save his lynch for tomorrow" because you know people will look at him tomorrow if he is alive because as you said, the NK (or NK's depending on setup) will clear something and Kar's story. Clear what? What something? and to clarify kar's story to me seem more a setup agains Kar that you could be planning for tomorrow.

In other words:

vote Mykonian

[germy]

If he

[afatchic]

flips town, then I will hope that someone can confirm my alignment, but if they can't then I will not fight against being the D2 lynch, because I was the one who proposed the case in the first place.

Okay, Kairyuu, lets walk through this.

First, I'll accept that you did not necessarily mean "investigate" when you used the word "confirmed." You even flatly denied it in response to springlullaby. Okay.

Second, you also further claimed that you are so "confident you are correct, or can be confirmed" that you believe you would not be considered a Day 2 lynch target.

Then why say you wouldn't fight it?

It's scummy to ingratiate yourself with the Town by pretending to agree with the majority, doubly so after you admit you don't expect the situation to occur and that you were only

placating us.

But,

*deep breath,*

let's say I accept this, too. Okay.

Third, you repeated in response to sekinj, that you are "a townie confident in his ability to get confirmed, and also confident that the person he is voting is scum." Confident you can be confirmed

and

that you are voting scum? Hm. I fully admit that afatchic is lurking, and it's been annoying the hell out of me. But how do you expect to be

that sure?

But, then again, fine. You're sure, so be it. Okay.

Given all of this,

what possible scenario exists that makes you so confident that you can be confirmed? Nearly every possibility, in the end, seems more likely to be a scum gambit than a true townie getting confirmed.

• A cop planning to reveal your investigation already, whatever the results? Or scum "revealing" a known townie?
  
• A doc hoping to protect the night kill target, and revealing you did so? Or scum simply not targeting a particular player?
  
• A backup doc, backup blocker, or one-shot vig claiming as such, hoping to draw out the true power role to confirm you? Or scum simply attempting to draw out the power roles?
  
• A blocker planning on blocking a townie, and claiming you were the one to do so on Day 2, while the townie confirms they were blocked. Or... a mafia blocker trying to curry the Town's favor?

The

only

possibilities I see working in your favor are either: innocent child or mason. However, in both of those cases your confirmation is

guaranteed.

Not "I hope to get confirmed," and neither leaves room for "in case I don't."

So, unless there's a possibility I have not discovered, I don't see any way that you can be "confirmed" if afatchic "flips town" that implies both your level of confidence as well as the admitted possibility of failure.

Oh, and there's also this:

And if I am town? Does that implicate afatchic? Does it clear mykonian?

The contrapositive is not necessarily true.

If Kairyuu scum => mykonian scum and afatchic town
If Kairyuu town !=> mykonian town
If Kairyuu town !=> afatchic scum

If you are Town, then my opinions revert to what they were before, with mykonian at the top of my list (in this case, trying to protect a townie to gain credence with the Town), afatchic could go either way, and everyone else on your lynch becomes suspicious. Only those on your lynch are implicated by your "townieness," not your own perceptions of other players.

[Kairyuu]

@Germy: I can't really say anything to your first bit because you didn't disagree with me. Moving right along:

Second, you also further claimed that you are so "confident you are correct, or can be confirmed" that you believe you would not be considered a Day 2 lynch target. Then why say you wouldn't fight it? It's scummy to ingratiate yourself with the Town by pretending to agree with the majority, doubly so after you admit you don't expect the situation to occur and that you were only placating us. But, *deep breath,* let's say I accept this, too. Okay.

Honestly, I could have worded it alot better when I initially proposed it. There isn't a whole lot I can do about that now, but on the positive side it provided quite a few reactions for me to work with.

Why did I attempt to placate the town in the event afatchic is town? Dunno really. Mostly because I wanted to make it seem like I would be an easy target for the scum to jump on tomorrow. I was trying to set myself up for a quasi-Slayer's Gambit, but without the terrible play part. Here are the possible situations I was inferring:

1. Afatchic is scum. I have no need to gambit because one of the scum has been caught and I can use the info to try to find the next one.

2. Afatchic is town. A few people hop instantly on my wagon. I then get confirmed, and can narrow down my list of suspects dramatically.

3. Afatchic is town and either no one or far too many people jump on my wagon quickly. Either way the wagon fails. If it is none then I move on to scumhunting, and if it is too many then I get confirmed and then move on in the same way.

In either of the first two situations the town has the advantage of positioning, and in the third one there is no loss other than my own confirmation making me a likely NK, which I am willing to risk in order to find the scum.

Third, you repeated in response to sekinj, that you are "a townie confident in his ability to get confirmed, and also confident that the person he is voting is scum." Confident you can be confirmed and that you are voting scum? Hm. I fully admit that afatchic is lurking, and it's been annoying the hell out of me. But how do you expect to be that sure? But, then again, fine. You're sure, so be it. Okay.

Do you realize how much fun this is for me, especially working with you? I love how confused and worked up people get at my playstyle. It is hilarious. I am

always

fully confident outwardly. No exceptions. That is what makes me such a threat to the scum. They don't know if I'm bluffing or if I really have an ace in the hole. Do they let me live? Do they kill me instead of someone they suspect of a power role because I am dangerous? I will not say how confident I really am that afatchic is scum, but I will say that I do want him lynched. I want it very much, because if he is we caught an obvious one, and if we didn't, it is very little loss because he has provided nothing substantive for us to to work with.

The only possibilities I see working in your favor are either: innocent child or mason. However, in both of those cases your confirmation is guaranteed. Not "I hope to get confirmed," and neither leaves room for "in case I don't."

Ah, but you see, if I didn't leave room for doubt, then where would I get the fun reactions from the town and the possibility of surviving the night. I will come out and state it right now. I can be confirmed with certainty, and will if I get to L-1 or there is a call for it. I would prefer moving onto someone else (afatchic) for today's lynch and hoping for a doc protect tonight so that I can put the town in a slightly better position D2, but I am doubting that I will have that good of luck. No matter. My strategy still works out just fine.

The contrapositive is not necessarily true.

Damn you math logic. -shakes fist- I understand though, and just wanted to know your take on the reverse situation.

If you are Town, then my opinions revert to what they were before, with mykonian at the top of my list (in this case, trying to protect a townie to gain credence with the Town), afatchic could go either way, and everyone else on your lynch becomes suspicious. Only those on your lynch are implicated by your "townieness," not your own perceptions of other players.

Still on mykonian? Other than his WIFOM (which he was pretty much right about anyway) he has been playing quite pro-town in my eyes. The interesting thing to note here is that you seem to be fixated on him. If I flip town you say that you would suspect him as scum for defending me, but if I flip scum you will also suspect him as my scumbuddy for the same reason. Sounds like you just want him dead however you can get it.

FOS: germy

I'm really hoping that you are having as much fun as I am, because this game is one of the most enjoyable I have played. First I get to but heads with you, then with Artem, and then I get wagoned in a situation where i can turn it to my own, and therefore the town's, advantage.

[germy]

I'm really hoping that you are having as much fun as I am, because this game is one of the most enjoyable I have played.

Actually, I am. Quite.

I'd like to

think,

and I

hope,

that I had a little something to do with having such a fun game, so far.

[Ku_F]

I'll read now. I was a bit busy. But I have some spare time right now .

[sekinj]

Unvote.

I'm quite convinced at this point.

[germy]

I can be confirmed with certainty, and will if I get to L-1 or there is a call for it.

Only

saying

you can be confirmed with certainty only confirms your power role for scum. I, and the Town, cannot trust your statement until you actually do.

You shouldn't just go halfway. If you're Town it only helps scum. If you're scum, I want to find out if you're lying. So I'm calling for it.

[springlullaby]

Prod: afatchic

[mykonian]

I, and the Town

weren´t you and the town in the same group?

[CF Riot]

1) Edify: Okay, your pretty much agreeing with me. My point is you're jumping on a lot of people for weak reasons, and you said since it was just a FOS, it was admittedly not very strong.

2) Join date: It's not supposed to be a point against you, I just needed you to know he was in fact a newbie. A fresh one at that.

The simple fact that both of your situations are possible, no matter how unlikely, means that you can't judge people by their join dates.

Oh, come on! I

know

you don't believe that. That's what this entire game is based on, judging how likely and unlikely two possibilities of the same situation are. You can throw out join dates if you want, sure. That logic is completely backwards though and you know it.

4) Who's attacking Germy: There doesn't have to be evidence that I thought he was town, I'm merely proving that not everyone you claimed was attacking him actually was. You made it seem like the only two not going after him were two of your suspects, and I knew that to be false.

But

, you've said this isn't really important and I've said this isn't really important, so I propose we drop it.

5) My point: You're attacking what I consider (opinion) a large number of suspects with what I consider (opinion) very little real evidence.
Your own words: "it was quite early in the game, and there was very little strong evidence to go on. So of course my arguments were somewhat weak."

You think this is not a tell, I think it is. This is still why I'm suspicious of you.

I would have to say that your opinion is merely that, an opinion.

And what is your opinion? Unchallengeable truth? I'll look for your examples now, although I can already see that they won't prove anything. You've said if two things are possible it's a null tell no matter what the likelihood of either is. This is where we disagree. Over-reacting is just one manifestation of the larger form we disagree on. Also, I doubt your example will prove anything to me, but I'm hard-headed so it's probably better that you bring it up anyways.

This is the part where I grumble a lot because I feel like I'm right and you're wrong, and yet I'm going to

unvote

you. Your whole claim situation seems very shady, but claims are claims and I think they carry weight. I'd rather you not claim today, but Germy has called for it. You're losing votes so I guess it's up to you.

My new top suspect is Sekinj. I thought the way Sekinj jumped on the Kair wagon was questionable and I think the bail off of it, with no questions asked and no new discussion on any point, is another scummy move.

Vote: Sekinj

I still think there is no case against Afatchic, but admit he is lurking badly. I will not vote him without some defense, no matter how long he lurks. (Day 1 anyways.)

[sekinj]

@CF - I just didn't have much time, and with kair so close to lynch I wanted to be sure to unvote. I will state my reasons later tonight but it was a lot of the stuff both kair and germy said.

I dont' knwo what you found scummy about voting kair. the godfather sounding comment just did it for me so I took the plunge and voted. It was about time since I hadn't voted anyone yet. I thought that supposed "slip" was good/bad enough for a vote, then Kair's explaination cleared it up. but I will point out specifically why I unvoted later tonight.

[germy]

I, and the Town

weren´t you and the town in the same group?

"I," specifically, as well as "the Town," generally.

[Kairyuu]

@Germy:

You shouldn't just go halfway. If you're Town it only helps scum. If you're scum, I want to find out if you're lying. So I'm calling for it.

Completely in agreement. I pretty much had to do the halfway thing in order to explain most of my reasoning. I wanted to see how people would react to my half-claim. That said, I will claim at the end of this post, and might I add that I came up with quite the flavor text if I do say so myself.

@Sekinj: I'm really on the fence with you right now. I think you are scummy because you just unvoted without giving any real reason, but I think you are possibly town for the unvoting part. I'm leaning more towards scum, because I would think that a townie would try to back off alot less obviously.

FOS: Sekinj

Ok. Saw your most recent post. I'll wait to pass judgement until after you explain further.

@CF Riot: My friend, you have finally allowed me to get a read on you, and it is not good. Let's dissect what you said.

Edify: Okay, your pretty much agreeing with me. My point is you're jumping on a lot of people for weak reasons, and you said since it was just a FOS, it was admittedly not very strong.

Yup. And that's the point now isn't it. This is pretty much just a playstyle difference, so I'll leave it there.

Join date: It's not supposed to be a point against you, I just needed you to know he was in fact a newbie. A fresh one at that.

Understood. It seemed to me like you were trying to use it against me, but since you weren't then I will drop it.

Oh, come on! I know you don't believe that. That's what this entire game is based on, judging how likely and unlikely two possibilities of the same situation are. You can throw out join dates if you want, sure. That logic is completely backwards though and you know it.

You are entirely right, but join dates are in a different realm of argument. Join dates are meta, and therefore not subject to the same rules. I despise meta, and will attack its use wherever I see it.

Who's attacking Germy: There doesn't have to be evidence that I thought he was town, I'm merely proving that not everyone you claimed was attacking him actually was. You made it seem like the only two not going after him were two of your suspects, and I knew that to be false. But, you've said this isn't really important and I've said this isn't really important, so I propose we drop it.

Consider it dropped.

My point: You're attacking what I consider (opinion) a large number of suspects with what I consider (opinion) very little real evidence.
Your own words: "it was quite early in the game, and there was very little strong evidence to go on. So of course my arguments were somewhat weak."

You think this is not a tell, I think it is. This is still why I'm suspicious of you.

Difference of opinion. I can't defend against it because I don't consider it scummy. Feel free to push the issue as much as you want. I won't argue, since I agree that I did do what you accuse me of.

And what is your opinion? Unchallengeable truth?

I'll look for your examples now, although I can already see that they won't prove anything. You've said if two things are possible it's a null tell no matter what the likelihood of either is.

This is where we disagree.

Over-reacting is just one manifestation of the larger form we disagree on. Also, I doubt your example will prove anything to me, but I'm hard-headed so it's probably better that you bring it up anyways.

Bolded: Nope. My opinion is an opinion as well. You are free to argue your points as much as you want, but if the evidence shows a null tell, then I go with the evidence.

Italics: We don't disagree nearly as much as you think we do. Probability is important in all cases but meta. I have been forced to drop points in other games due to evidence pointing in favor of someone else's point (the mod knows what I am talking about). I would link to the specific game, but it is still in progress.

I'll have the example game(s) included in my next post, but that may not be until Wednesday, when I come off of V/LA.

This is the part where I grumble a lot because I feel like I'm right and you're wrong, and yet I'm going to unvote you. Your whole claim situation seems very shady, but claims are claims and I think they carry weight. I'd rather you not claim today, but Germy has called for it. You're losing votes so I guess it's up to you.

I do not like this at all. This is what set my scumdar off. I made it blatently obvious that I had a power role, and you would rather let it go to the Night without knowing if I could back up my assertions? If you are town, you want to know what I am so that you can know whether or not to trust me. If you are scum though, you want me to give as little information to the town as possible so that you can kill me without as much risk of a doc protect (assuming there is a doc). That way, there is no possibility of my claim confirming anyone else (in the case of my being a mason).

HOS: CF Riot

My new top suspect is Sekinj. I thought the way Sekinj jumped on the Kair wagon was questionable and I think the bail off of it, with no questions asked and no new discussion on any point, is another scummy move. Vote: Sekinj

I don't really know what to make of this. Not getting strong feelings either way about sekinj based on just this.

I still think there is no case against Afatchic, but admit he is lurking badly. I will not vote him without some defense, no matter how long he lurks. (Day 1 anyways.)

I think afatchic is your scumbuddy right now. You have done your best to continually say that there is no case against him while he gets a free pass to lurk as much as he wants. And now you are even saying that you will continue to give him that free pass.

@everyone: Claim time:

I am Archibald Ebenezer Twillyfig, Master Mason of the Grand Lodge of Shuhullavah. I and Johnathan Hunter Forest (He should now reveal himself to confirm both of us), my second in command, have been sent to you quaint little town on a search an destroy mission. It seems that your town has been beset by an infestation of scum. We call ourselves the Masonic Mercenaries, or M Squared, and we are here to free you from that infestation which threatens to ruin the peaceful landscape of your pleasant town.

In other words, I am a mason, and my partner should claim to confirm the both of us now.

Now I and my partner will be at a serious risk of being killed N1, so if there is a doc among the rest of the town, please protect one of us.

And in keeping with almost every post I have made thus far: Everyone should be voting afatchic. He is scummy.

[wolframnhart]

If that is a true claim then i can probably guess as to who your partner is.

[Kairyuu]

Well I haven't exactly been trying to hide it, now have I. Don't guess at it though. I would prefer if he comes forward without people having guessed.

[wolframnhart]

which is why i haven't said it. besides, i could always be wrong

[CF Riot]

I made it blatently obvious that I had a power role, and you would rather let it go to the Night without knowing if I could back up my assertions? If you are town, you want to know what I am so that you can know whether or not to trust me.

What difference would it make if you were specific or not? You already claimed "power role", which for me is enough to not lynch you. It wouldn't make the slightest difference to me if you were a cop or a vig or a mason, because all of those are on the town's side, and regardless of what you can do, if you're town I want you alive.

If you are scum though, you want me to give as little information to the town as possible so that you can kill me without as much risk of a doc protect (assuming there is a doc). That way, there is no possibility of my claim confirming anyone else (in the case of my being a mason). HOS: CF Riot

I (as town) would rather you not tell exactly what you can do, because that gives the mafia a better idea of how to deal with you. Example, if you were the cop, mafia might try to block you instead of kill you, knowing a doc may protect you tonight. If you were the doc, mafia would have the option of straight up killing you (with less fear of being stopped by a doc) or of blocking you to get to a higher profile target. If you reveal nothing, the mafia doesn't know exactly what to do. In the event that you are a mason, and if you didn't claim, and if you got NK'd, we'd still know you were a mason when you died so it would still confirm whoever else claimed mason later in the game. Basically he gains nothing by you being more specific. By admitting what you are and by asking him to come out with it too, you're just putting both of you in danger rather than just yourself.

Back to other business, the reason I'm defending afatchic is because I don't think you have anything at all against him. The lurking issue actually is bad, but you pressed him before that happened, so I took it as you trying to build a case on nothing. What I said simply meant that I'm not going to vote for him for lurking alone. If he starts posting and there is

real

evidence to go on, I could change my mind, but I don't think your case holds water and if that and lurking are the only two points against him at deadline, I'll have my vote somewhere else. Since you're almost confirmed now, I wish you'd broaden your scope a bit because that gives me reason to vote with you, but I positively do not like the afat case, even knowing that you're town. (And obviously, I'm not going to vote for myself either.) I think Sekinj could be a good lynch, and I'm considering Artem after a reread, now that you're claimed mason.

[springlullaby]

I'm putting my posting my thoughts on hold until Kayryuu's partner has claimed.

One thing though, I'd like to hear more from our lurkers: afatchic, alvinz95, Ku_F, Scigatt, and wolframnhart.

Five lurkers in a 12 people town is too disproportionate for my liking, especially with a claim on the table.

[wolframnhart]

how the heck am i lurking? i joined sunday and have posted everyday.

[Kairyuu]

@CF Riot:

What difference would it make if you were specific or not? You already claimed "power role", which for me is enough to not lynch you. It wouldn't make the slightest difference to me if you were a cop or a vig or a mason, because all of those are on the town's side, and regardless of what you can do, if you're town I want you alive.

Essentially what you are saying here is that you promote blind trust in claims, even vague ones with no backing. That is not pro-town, because that philosophy means that scum could claim power role and you would believe it automatically because it is a power role.

I (as town) would rather you not tell exactly what you can do, because that gives the mafia a better idea of how to deal with you. Example, if you were the cop, mafia might try to block you instead of kill you, knowing a doc may protect you tonight. If you were the doc, mafia would have the option of straight up killing you (with less fear of being stopped by a doc) or of blocking you to get to a higher profile target. If you reveal nothing, the mafia doesn't know exactly what to do.

In the event that you are a mason, and if you didn't claim, and if you got NK'd, we'd still know you were a mason when you died so it would still confirm whoever else claimed mason later in the game.

Basically he gains nothing by you being more specific. By admitting what you are and by asking him to come out with it too, you're just putting both of you in danger rather than just yourself.

Bolded: I realize that if I was one of those roles and the scum figured it out I could become useless, but in my situation I doubt that the scum can block me, because I don't think that masonship is a blockable power.

Interesting note though is that you seem sure that there is a scum roleblocker, which is something only the scum could know for sure.

Italics: But if I am dead, then there can be no corroboration between myself and my mason partner, and if it gets to LyLo then scum could easily counterclaim as my partner and win the game. The strength of masons is that they can confirm each other while still alive. Once one is dead then the other becomes little more than a vanilla townie if they did not claim first.

Underlined: Not quite. Yes we will both be in danger of being NKed by the scum or the SK (if there is one), but it still gives the town a massive advantage for the first approximately 3-4 days, because the scum need us dead, and will have to focus on us during the night rather than looking for other, possibly more dangerous, power roles. If they can't manage to kill us, and the game hits LyLo, having confirmed townies greatly damages the chance of a scum win. If we have a doc, and the doc protects the right one of us even once, then we can almost guarentee a confirmed if we get to LyLo.

Back to other business, the reason I'm defending afatchic is because I don't think you have anything at all against him. The lurking issue actually is bad, but you pressed him before that happened, so I took it as you trying to build a case on nothing. What I said simply meant that I'm not going to vote for him for lurking alone. If he starts posting and there is real evidence to go on, I could change my mind, but I don't think your case holds water and if that and lurking are the only two points against him at deadline, I'll have my vote somewhere else. Since you're almost confirmed now, I wish you'd broaden your scope a bit because that gives me reason to vote with you, but I positively do not like the afat case, even knowing that you're town. (And obviously, I'm not going to vote for myself either.) I think Sekinj could be a good lynch, and I'm considering Artem after a reread, now that you're claimed mason.

What I had on afatchic originally was merely a stab in the dark at an inconsistant opinion. When he denied what he was accused of, and then started lurking when I provided proof, my case became serious. I will continue to push for his lynch unless it looks like the day will end in a No Lynch unless I swap my vote, because I am convinced that he is scum.

I don't think that I really need to broaden my scope much more. I have FOSes on sekinj, Artem, and germy, and a HOS on you in addition to my vote on afatchic. That's five people I am suspecting at one time out of a possible 10 (myself and the other mason being out of the question). Just because I don't move my vote doesn't mean that I'm not looking at other people. It just means that I like one of them as scum over the others.

[CF Riot]

I just realized I didn't clarify, but all the cop/doc/mafia RB talk in my last post is hypothetical, not speculation. =Edit= Kairyuu just posted about that. I can't say I didn't have that one coming.

I think I have my Scum Over-reaction Vs. Town Over-reaction post ready. The examples I will be using are very convenient for this argument. Both examples are of a user named Charter. The first is Charter as scum, in the first attempt at Mini 611. After gaining 2-3 votes, Charter gets really peeved, and you can tell by his posting.

• Me asking Charter a simple question. This is what led to the case against him, and his eventual over-reacting. X
  Charter: Refuses to answer the question. The post after this, I get on him about that being scummy. X
  Charter really gets steamed. As you can see in the next post, he only has 3 votes at this point. (He eventually maxes out at 4.) X
  More backlash at me. Now it's less anger, and more resigned spite for the people who've found him out. X

Next, is Charter as town in the second attempt at the same game. (The first was ruined by a scum revealing all the scum's roles on D1. We restarted, with a large number of the same players as the first game and a slightly different set-up.) Here, Charter gets almost as many votes as the first game (3 at the time of most of his responses. Actually gets 4, but is unvoted down to 3 again before he replies.) but never shows the same rash behavior he did as scum.

• Hadhfang puts vote 3 on Charter. X
  Page 4 has 4 responses from Charter, and none of them have that same biting attitude as his previous game. He had 3 votes throughout this page. X
  Another post from page 6. Still 3 votes, still no over-reaction. After this point, suspicion of Charter dies down with him never really being annoyed at it. X

After that, suspicion drifted elsewhere. Charter never reacts in his town game the same as he did in the scum game, despite have nearly the same amount of pressure and from a lot of the same people.

@Kairyuu: I guess 5 people is a pretty big number. It just feels smaller than that to me because I take out Afatchic and myself, and really Germy too since I've thought of him as town all day so far. I didn't think your FOS on Sekinj stood because you said something about waiting for his next post.

[sekinj]

I unvoted Kair becuase of his response to the pressure of being voted. These things in particular are what caught my eye when I read and caused me to unvote before taking the time to explain.

Look at Newbie 661. We broke the game by having the cop claim D2 with his investigation of a townie. I'd say that was a good idea. That's irrelevant though,

because I am not insisting on an investigation, but something else.

The bolded is what I DIDN'T know, and had to have kair state explicitly before I understood.

Never said that they should. I would actually suggest not investigating me tonight (unless things do not go the way I planned). Automatically assuming I'm asking for a cop claim is not the best move.

I DID assume he was asking for a cop claim, because that is how I read his initial statement.

I am aggressive, which, if you believe I am town, is a big help in finding the scum, because my method of scumhunting allows me to make the scum slip up more easily. Also, I have been actively scumhunting, whereas an unfortunately large amount of the town has not.

I can see that Kair's style makes him hard for me to read, and I agree that we have too many lurkers.

Well, I could most certainly see it as having come from the godfather if I was in your shoes, so I will concede that you are right, it does sound that way.

I am glad that Kair admitted this here. He's not saying we were stupid to ever think it, he is saying that it was reasonable, but wrong. That is something I can accept.

For a town person to want to an an investigation basically wasted on them or the alternative to accept a D2 lynch?

Firstly, I never asked for an investigation. I mentioned hoping I could be confirmed, which was my way of implying that I could be confirmed. Secondly, I said that I would submit to a lynch if I couldn't be confirmed, which I do believe I can be.

I feel justified in my response since many people read it the same way, however, I can see and understand that now after you have explained yourself, and to each person to boot.

I think this is more likely arrogant scum knowing they will invesigate cleanly and get a free pass to the end of the game. If he gets a townie lynched D1, and then gets cleared N1... He really will have a free ride until endgame.

Or perhaps you could consider the alternative: A townie confident in his ability to get confirmed, and also confident that the person he is voting is scum. Because that is what I am.

It looks liek Artem thought the same, and that makes me think he really was just defending himself against and over-the-top attack by Kair.

Artem said it sounded like a godfather speaking. Which has nothing to do with our argument. I'm surprised I have to mention this again after calling Artem out about it already, but that thinking is called Correlation Implies Collaboration, and is a logical fallacy. Just because Artem thought the same way as you did on a single point does not mean that everything he has said has been pro-town, and just because a single thing I said could be interpreted as something scum might say, does not automatically mean that everything I have said is scummy.

I didn't mean that just because artem thought you were godfather he was correct in the previous argument, but from my words do bear clarification. I just meant that if you were godfather, it was more likely that you were pushing too hard because you were trying to get a townie lynched. Rather than it just being playstyle and aggressive scum hunting, as I am back to believing.

If you are Town, you should always fight your lynch, no matter how much "sense" you know it might make to the rest of the Town that you look like scum.

I both agree and disagree. I agree in that a townie should try to prevent their own lynch in favor of one they think to be better, but I disagree in that if a townie is almost certainly going to get lynched, they should submit rather than flail to their death, because a flailing townie hurts the town more than a townie who realizes that they are as good as dead and doesn't fight against it.

These are good thoughts by kair is response to germy. I've seen towns ripped apart and scum wins all because of a townie who was a ditraction.

First, I'll accept that you did not necessarily mean "investigate" when you used the word "confirmed." You even flatly denied it in response to springlullaby. Okay.

agreed.

Mostly because I wanted to make it seem like I would be an easy target for the scum to jump on tomorrow. I was trying to set myself up for a quasi-Slayer's Gambit, but without the terrible play part.

Ah, but you see, if I didn't leave room for doubt, then where would I get the fun reactions from the town and the possibility of surviving the night. I will come out and state it right now. I can be confirmed with certainty, and will if I get to L-1 or there is a call for it.

This is were I can see Kair's little gambit. I think this was a good way to draw the scum out, and I hope we can use the information gained from it.


Each of these excepts from germy and kair are what led me to unvote. It seems perfectly resonable since the only reason i voted kair is becuase it looked liek he was godfather and slipped. Now, wiht his explainations he has convinced me otherwise.