Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

Vote Count #2!

germy (3) - Kairyuu, Edify, Nightwolf
Kairyuu (1) - afatchic
CF Riot (1) - ChuckNorris
sekinj (1) - springlullaby
Edify (1) - mykonian

Not Voting (5) - alvinz95, Artem, CF Riot, germy, sekinj

[sekinj]

<snip>
I agree with the miller claims, and to be honest I don't really mind the type of claim he did. The thing I don't like, is the fact that it was

the first

post. <snip>

It actually wasn't

the first

post... it was the third... but I understand your point...

[ChuckNorris]

If this is a gambit, he is going to be cought. Every day, every night information streams in about the setup. Would be a very weird move. I don't see the potential for a "great move".

I didn't think of that true. So it is most likely that he is the role he claims.

[springlullaby]

I don't think germy is likely to be scum, sekinj you're not gonna really ignore me are you? I really didn't like what you said about scumhunting you know.

[sekinj]

I don't think germy is likely to be scum, sekinj you're not gonna really ignore me are you? I really didn't like what you said about scumhunting you know.

why not? do you prefer random voting to scumhunting? I'm not sure what your point is...

[springlullaby]

My point is I don't see you scumhunting.

[sekinj]

My point is I don't see you scumhunting.

Your right, I hadn't yet kicked my scumhunting into gear on page 2. however, I also wasn't participating or promoting the random voting, which was my point. Rather than continue random voting, let's start scum hunting. and no, I don't have a case on anyone yet, but I am participating and noticing how everyone interacts.

Why did that one word put you into such a tizzy?

[germy]

sekinj you're not gonna really ignore me are you? I really didn't like what you said about scumhunting you know.

why not? do you prefer random voting to scumhunting? I'm not sure what your point is...

I'm working on a more extensive post, but I want to head off this argument.

• Sekinj - Springlullaby is commenting on the fact that you claimed to prefer scumhunting to random voting, yet at that point your posts had no content that "hunted for scum." Springlullaby is not saying random voting is better, just that you had been doing neither.
  
• Springlullaby - Sekinj was simply claiming that scumhunting, in general, was better than random voting. She was making a general statement.

At least, that's my interpretation of this spat.

[germy]

I love this, Page 3 with

tons

of discussion already, without watching

"as people childishly overreact to the random voting,"

forcing a townie lynche as often as not.

F

IRST,

It seems you would have thought about this a lot to come up with all of your information about the setup that you originally posted, so you should be able to tell us

at least

one of these ways that it puts “those that believe you at an advantage.” (Use a theoretical situation if necessary)

Let's say that another "dependent role" exists, and that player believes me. (I am not saying "backup role" because the dependent roles include the backups as well as a one-shot vig and masons). That second dependent role, without even claiming to the rest of the Town, now knows that we have

at least

a YYZZTTT situation. That player now knows that the mafia has a roleblocker, and that if there is a serial killer they will also have the CI ability. That player has a distinct information advantage as a result of my claim, and can then make better lynch decisions and Night actions accordingly.

S

ECOND,

My goal regarding my first post claim is twofold. One, give the Town access to the information discrepancy. I recognize that on Day 1, especially, this is "unhelpful" in that no one knows if I am telling the truth or if I am scum.

However

, one of the best strategies for the Town, in my opinion, is to analyze posts of previous Days.

My second goal does not manifest until the endgame, when a certain number of vanilla townies, mafia roles and town roles have been revealed and we can go all the way back to Day 1 to analyze posts. By endgame, with Night kill information and role reveals, we can likely determine the exact makeup of the mafia, and what has been said Today in response to my reveal will be invaluable.

Without my reveal, most of Day 1 is useless. It consists of random voting and overreactions that gain us relatively little information. By claiming as I have, not only on Day 1 but so

early

in Day 1, both Today and when we search back through everyone's posts in endgame, the Town will have more information to work with.

This is my point:

Not only have I hoped to give the Town extra information from the outset, but I also want the Town to have an extensive post record for everyone come endgame. By announcing my status as a "dependent role," (as opposed to power role or vanilla), I have limited the damage to the Town, and limited the advantage the mafia might otherwise gain.

T

HIRD,

Now that everyone has posted, I have scum theories!

I recognize that agreement or disagreement with my conclusions or claim is not a direct indication of scumminess. I am attempting to base my thoughts on

how

people have reacted, so far, as opposed to

what

the reaction is.

Here is my initial take:

mykonian is mafia

• I don't like the way he is wavering on how to interpret my posts and claim. He is defending me while pointing out the flaws and dangers of my argument. The "chumminess" reeks of being artificial.

Edify is mafia

• This is based on mykonian being mafia. Edify had a token vote on me for disagreeing, and i think mykonian was trying to find an in-game reason to place a meaningless vote on a scumbuddy. Given I think mykonian is mafia, his fellow mafia will try to place votes on me, and I have other reasons why I think Kairyuu and Nightwolf are more likely to be Town.

springlullaby is mafia

• The attack on sekinj seems excessive, plus I don't like a "random vote" in her first post when she had already begun discussing my claim.

So,

Vote: mykonian

My thoughts on who is likely Town:

Artem, CF Riot, Kairyuu, Nightwolf, sekinj

[mykonian]

Am I wrong when I say you are not today's lynch? 2 of your three mafia I can agree with, but not with myself.

To put my point very simple: I think your play was antitown, yet not scummy. You can say that yourself, and it will be called wifom, if I say it, maybe someone listens.

[springlullaby]

I think it's very unlikely that germy could fake 'self-important town' so good. From the formatting of that post to the tone and content. If germy is scum, tipsing my hat right here for that show.

Though in honesty I'm not sure if the 'Second' paragraph really make sense, and I'm not gonna try to figure it out because I already said I'm crap at evaluating probabilities and such.

As for me,

springlullaby is mafia

• The attack on sekinj seems excessive, plus I don't like a "random vote" in her first post when she had already begun discussing my claim.

Excessive really? I feel I'm being merely conversational, if not banter-y. And not everything is about you babe, thing is when I discussed your claim in my first post, I didn't intend to 'begin' anything, but rather to close the chapter, because I didn't find your stunt that interesting.

My read on you for now, germy, is 'a bit on the presumptuous side, attention grabbing, doesn't know better' town. Am I right?

My point is I don't see you scumhunting.

Your right, I hadn't yet kicked my scumhunting into gear on page 2. however, I also wasn't participating or promoting the random voting, which was my point. Rather than continue random voting, let's start scum hunting. and no, I don't have a case on anyone yet, but I am participating and noticing how everyone interacts.

Why did that one word put you into such a tizzy?

I didn't like it, and didn't like the post about ignoring me. Do you have any conclusions so far?

[sekinj]

As for me,

springlullaby is mafia

• The attack on sekinj seems excessive, plus I don't like a "random vote" in her first post when she had already begun discussing my claim.

Excessive really? I feel I'm being merely conversational, if not banter-y. And not everything is about you babe, thing is when I discussed your claim in my first post, I didn't intend to 'begin' anything, but rather to close the chapter, because I didn't find your stunt that interesting.

I do not find your style "banter-y" at all. and certainly not conversational.

My point is I don't see you scumhunting.

Your right, I hadn't yet kicked my scumhunting into gear on page 2. however, I also wasn't participating or promoting the random voting, which was my point. Rather than continue random voting, let's start scum hunting. and no, I don't have a case on anyone yet, but I am participating and noticing how everyone interacts.

Why did that one word put you into such a tizzy?

I didn't like it, and didn't like the post about ignoring me. Do you have any conclusions so far?

Well, I have to admit that the vote and "reason" were so ridiculous, I

really

did think you were joking/random voting until you kept on it. and No, I have not come to conclusions in the last 2 hours, but I will be sure that you are the first to know since you are so anxious to see my scumdar in action.

[Kairyuu]

@Artem: I find it amusing that you repeated the same thing you said earlier about my having a contradiction while saying that you now see my point. In my post responding to germy's first post, I said he was narrowing down the town power role possibilities for the scum

if someone believed him and did the same thing

. This is what I said specifically (important part bolded).

In essence, you are rolefishing with a convoluted claim

in order to draw out backup power roles

.

I never contradicted myself, and you should be able to see that now. I can see your response as coming from a misreading of what I said, or as an overeager scum trying to start a weak wagon. I'm leaning toward the misread option because of the unvote, but I'll be watching you a bit more closely now, if only because of your snap decisions.

@germy: In my opinion, your actions hurt the town quite a bit more over time than you are trying to convince people, but I have been seeing activity that worries me more than you do right now. I will

unvote

for now until I have gotten a better read on you, because I'm not fully convinced that you are scum any longer. Of course, my suspicions are still higher than 50%, since I could still see your original claim to be a scum gambit. I am liking the ramped up discussion though, and see you as slightly more town because of it, since scum like to hide in the chaos of D1 to avoid suspicion.

To comment on your cases:

I am hesitant to believe that mykonian is scum simply because he hasn’t taken a decisive stance on your claim yet. There are three votes on you already, and him tossing his own on would make it four, so it is completely understandable for him to be hesitant to take you to one vote away from the threat range of L-2 to L-1. I think you are simply overreacting to what is likely a townie trying to avoid a mislynch.

I don’t like Edify’s vote any more than you do, but I don’t like your reasoning. Edify did not come up with any reason for his vote, claiming it to be random. By that point there was plenty of information to make a decent case floating around, but he ignored it and told you to chill out. Sounds to me like he’s a member of the scumtype I mentioned earlier in this post, trying to reinstate the usual chaos so that he can be written off as harmless. Also, you base Edify being scum on mykonian being scum, when mykonian never had a vote on either you or edify before Edify voted you. His was on Nightwolf originally, and moved to Edify because he was the only one voting you who had no case, unique or otherwise.

I think that you have the Springlullaby thing reversed as well. She has been attacking someone who she seems to think is scum based on the fact that he is not scumhunting. This is scumhunting itself. I would look much more closely at sekinj for failing to post any content, effectively active lurking.

As for your likely town section:

You claim that you think Nightwolf and I are town and that you have a reason to think that, but you don’t provide it. What have either of us done to affirm our towniness in your eyes?

You also claim that you think CF Riot, Artem, and sekinj are town, but don’t even tell us if you have a reason to think that. It would be much appreciated if you didn’t make unsupported assertions like that.

Now for my alternatives:

I think Edify is scum for the reasons I mentioned above (No reason for his vote, trying to send the town back to the rvs that lasted all of one post). He is not the most helpful lynch in my eyes right now though.

FOS: Edify

I think afatchic is scum because he instantly latched onto you without question, and then when further points began to be raised against you, he continued to say he supported you, but started trying to pull away, advocating only the miller claims rather than supporting you completely as he began. I think this could be scum latching onto a townie and then trying to back off when that townie was put under fire. I think we could gain quite a bit from this lynch because, if afatchic is scum, you are much less likely to be scum in my opinion, because I have almost never seen buddying up between scumbuddies so early in D1, especially not accompanied with a quick backing off.

vote:afatchic

I think that sekinj is scum for the reasons mentioned above (no scumhunting, no content, active lurking to the extreme). Again, not a whole lot of information we can gain from this, except that if sekinj is scum, then Springlullaby is somewhat more likely to be scum as well because it is not at all uncommon for scumbuddies to distance themselves from each other during D1.

FOS: sekinj

As for my views about townies:

Mykonian is town in my eyes because he seems worried about putting someone reasonably close to a lynch without being sure about their scumminess, but instead pointing out all of his thoughts on the matter for the town to see.

Nightwolf is town in my eyes because even though he has made only one post so far, that post has been entirely logically sound. Not one thing he said was untrue, and he made some very good points against you.

There are a few more people who I can make judgments on, but each of those people are linked to another person turning up scum or town, so I will not presume to make idle conjecture.

@sekinj: You keep saying that you don’t have anyone to make a case on. Umm . . . right, sure. We’re well along, and there are plenty of people who can have cases made against them at the moment. Either you’re spending too much time in your dialogue with Springlullaby to be able to focus on anything else, or you are having trouble making a case against anyone, because you know their alignments and can’t figure out how to make a case against a townie when you don’t believe it yourself.

@Springlullaby: Tunnelvision is not good. Care to provide some more thoughts on who you find scummy or who you think is town?

@alvinz: I have heard from several sources that you have a tendency to lurk for extended lengths of time. This will not be tolerated. Unless everyone is active, the chances that we catch scum are lowered significantly. You have made one post, and a short one at that. Kindly participate.

@CF Riot: I understand where you are coming from, and am leaning towards germy as a townie hurting the town more than he realizes, but I think that saying he is either town or scum for sure is contingent on whether afatchic flips scum.

@ChuckNorris: Can you explain your opinions a bit more? Why do you think that germy would do what he did as scum? As town?

@Edify: You also have made only one short post, except that yours contains absolutely no information at all, which is even worse than alvinz not having a vote attached to his. Share your opinions.

@mykonian: I like your ideas, even if I prefer a more aggressive playstyle myself. Do you have any opinions about people other than germy? Questioning one person is good, but multitasking in scumhunting, especially this early on, benefits the town much more.

@Nightwolf: The only comment I can make about you is that you have only made one post. It was a good, solid post, but it was still only one over the course of 3 days. It would be much appreciated if you would pick up your activity levels.

[germy]

I am hesitant to believe that mykonian is scum simply because he hasn’t taken a decisive stance on your claim yet. There are three votes on you already, and him tossing his own on would make it four, so it is completely understandable for him to be hesitant to take you to one vote away from the threat range of L-2 to L-1. I think you are simply overreacting to what is likely a townie trying to avoid a mislynch.

Let me clarify that I am not saying anything with surety. mykonian simply seems to me the most suspicious at this time, for my listed reasons. He seemed wishy-washy and chummy even before Edify's vote. I don't think he ever planned to put a vote on me.

I don’t like Edify’s vote any more than you do, but I don’t like your reasoning. Edify did not come up with any reason for his vote, claiming it to be random. By that point there was plenty of information to make a decent case floating around, but he ignored it and told you to chill out. Sounds to me like he’s a member of the scumtype I mentioned earlier in this post, trying to reinstate the usual chaos so that he can be written off as harmless.

I agree. mykonian's actions, in my mind, simply seemed to corroborate this.

Also, you base Edify being scum on mykonian being scum, when mykonian never had a vote on either you or edify before Edify voted you. His was on Nightwolf originally, and moved to Edify because he was the only one voting you who had no case, unique or otherwise.

Yes, I know. One of my assumptions is that the mafia will not all vote for the same person, and that one mafia member usually pretends to defend a townie while another mafia member will vote for them. This is the situation I am predicting, here.

I think that you have the Springlullaby thing reversed as well. She has been attacking someone who she seems to think is scum based on the fact that he is not scumhunting. This is scumhunting itself. I would look much more closely at sekinj for failing to post any content, effectively active lurking.

I easily could, admittedly. If sekinj doesn't start contributing more, soon, then I can see reversing my vote. I can also see, though, two scum making shots at one another over a trivial point in an attempt to distance one another. We'll see what happens over the next few real-time days, as well as game Days.

As for your likely town section:

<snip>

There is no reason to provide support for why I think particular players are Town. Scumhunting is good - towniehunting is bad.

Hypothetical example: I think mykonian is the Cop while sekinj and springlullaby are masons . I should not say in the thread,

"I think mykonian is Town because he's made these cop tells,"

or

"I think sekinj and springlullaby are Town because they act like masons."

Unless it's endgame where such information is useful for narrowing down scum, I will not explain my reasons for whom I think is Town.

I think afatchic is scum because he instantly latched onto you without question, and then when further points began to be raised against you, he continued to say he supported you, but started trying to pull away, advocating only the miller claims rather than supporting you completely as he began. I think this could be scum latching onto a townie and then trying to back off when that townie was put under fire.

A good point, and one I'll consider. But I don't think afatchic has really posted enough to really conclude what you have.

[afatchic]

kairyuu can you please explain to me how i am just latching on and then backing off when he went under fire? the best i can tell i don't even think he is under fire. i thought it was a good idea and could prove helpful to some PR townies. i also don't like how 62 posts into the game you are already saying that i am a good lynch. that comment is based off of two or three posts where i say i thought his action was pro-town and answered a couple questions that had been asked. my vote on you just went from random to serious for talking about having a good lynch this early in the game.

[CF Riot]

In answer to your question, . .

<snip>

I didn't ask you anything. No one asked you anything. ???

Chuckie can I get a response to this? I don't know how relevant it is, but it confuses me. A second clarification:

Post 28- I think that it could be a gambit being played. I think that it could be a potentially great move by scum. Or it could just be what he said. I think that WIFOM could be applyed here aswell.

Is that post number correct? I don't understand what gambit you're talking about.

[ChuckNorris]

@CF- Firstly, I meant 27. Think it was a typo. By gambit, I meant Scum trying o cement a place as a townie. Then someone else said about that he could be trying to get some kind of power role, ie. not townie, as a NK for night. That then makes me think that I could be right about

a

gambit. Maybe not the one I suggested but I think he could be scum making a big gambit.

Secondly you, asked a question to everyone post 19(I know it is this post =P) and I answered it.

Post 58- I think that, after this post, it makes me think he is no longer scum. But if he is, he is very dangerous as he is great at looking pro-town.

@germy- What is your read on me? What do you think of all of my posts?

@ChuckNorris: Can you explain your opinions a bit more? Why do you think that germy would do what he did as scum? As town?

I think as Scum, he is either trying to look town and not get lynched, at least not on day 1/2. Also as scum he could be trying to get a kind of "dependant" role I think it is, for NK N1. But as town, I think he could be trying to narrow down the possibilites of who is scum.

I must apologize. I suck at this game. I enjoy playing, but I must warn you I suck. Also

Unvote: CF

- It was a random vote, and the random vote stage is over.

[mykonian]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

or we could scumhunt instead...

Seemed to me like a reasonable post: He said what I thought. Edify didn't want any discussion on germy, he just wanted to start the day again. Springlullaby doesn't like Sakinj's reply, and votes without a reason. After I ask the reason he comes up with this:

Because I didn't like sekinj post.

1. I don't see her walking the walk.
2. I don't see contradiction between scumhunting and random voting.

I think Sakinj made a valid post: discussion helps more in hunting scum. Random voting, is what it says it is: random. It maybe helps you a bit, but talking helps way more. Edify says: "I don't want to talk yet, let's random vote". I think you have your vote there for the wrong reasons spring. And now we wait for a slightly longer post from Sakinj.

There is one person with us that actually likes germy's claim. Afatchic. Defending a towny, or not? So if he is lynched you can say: I told you. I don't like germy's claim, most people didn't, and they gave reasons. You didn't.

And what about chuck? He seems to repeat "what if he (germy) is scum" and has said at least one time he doesn't think germy scum.

I don't know about the others.

[alvinz95]

Kairyuu, I don't lurk, rather post something small every so often. I'm not a bulk mafia poster, so don't expect too much. I point out valuable but short things, rather concise.

Germy, I don't think you can take too much out of 2 pages so call people "scum" now. Also i have a distaste on how you said Day 1 is useless. If we lynch quickly, we won't have much information for the next day. For some reason, I have a feeling that you are scum, and that you attacking people that were supporting you to distance. Of course, I have no backup right now, but its a gut feeling that I will keep note of.

[Artem]

I find it amusing that you repeated the same thing you said earlier about my having a contradiction while saying that you now see my point. In my post responding to germy's first post, I said he was narrowing down the town power role possibilities for the scum if someone believed him and did the same thing.

I never contradicted myself, and you should be able to see that now. I can see your response as coming from a misreading of what I said, or as an overeager scum trying to start a weak wagon. I'm leaning toward the misread option because of the unvote, but I'll be watching you a bit more closely now, if only because of your snap decisions.

I re-stated the contradiction because you didn't seem to understand my argument and I said I now see your point because CF Riot pointed out what you meant.

I don't think my decision to vote you was any more "snap" than your decision to vote Germy. In my mind, I had a good reason and it seemed to be a good reason until CF Riot pointed out the flaw.

To be frank, the reason I thought you were arguing what I said you were came from your computations:

According to you, there are approximately 4 full power roles and 3 vanillas. If everyone does as you say, then instead of looking at the game and having 12 (minus lynch and scum members) people to choose from, the scum have a 4/7 chance of hitting a town power role during the Night.

First, the scum always have "12 (minus lynch and scum members)" to choose from during Night 1 so that statement says nothing.

Second, where does 4/7 come from? When I first saw that, I thought that, assuming that there are 3 scum and a non-scum gets lynched on day 1, you're arguing that out of the eight remaining non-scum, only seven will now be targeted by the mafia because of Germy's claim. So, I thought you were making two assumptions:
-A non-scum gets lynched;
-Germy is town and mafia will not be targeting him during night 1;
Hence, my vote.

I personally have a problem when players post numbers that are not immediately apparent and don't follow it up with an explanation, because:
a) They could be wrong;
b) They might be making some assumptions that should be stated explicitly. What's more important is they might be making some assumptions that only make sense from the mafia's point of view.

For example,

...since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles.

Where does 1/4th come from? Is that referring to 3 out of 12 players being scum? In which case, why does afatchic assume we have 3 scum?

After thinking about it, I agree that it makes sense for there to be 3 scum, because either Germy is a townie and is telling the truth or if he was scum, he wouldn't be fishing for back-up roles knowing there were only two mafia (which would mean the setup doesn't have back-up roles).

But the fact wasn't immediately apparent to me.

So, when afatchic says that scum know 1/4th of the roles, is that because he went through the same logic as me? Or is that because he believes Germy? Or is that because he

knows

there are 3 scum?

[afatchic]

artem- not really good at quoting just one sentence out of a huge post like that, but this is for the last 2 paragraphs.
i just assumed that there are atleast three scum for a few reasons. first i think i saw it come out of one of germy's posts after all his math.
but second i think the only way it would be anything less, would be if it was a 2-10 setup. which if germy was scum, he would know that there are no PR and would not have any reason to fish for PR's, which makes me think if he is scum there are atleast three, or that he is a backup PR townie and he is really trying to help.
so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

[Nightwolf]

For those voting Germy: Whether or not the information he has posted benefits the town or scum more is debatable. Nightwolf and Kairyuu's arguments have me leaning towards it hurting the town more than it helps. Let's assume for arguments sake that his info does not help the town in any way. Do you find it more likely that he is scum running a gambit, or town unintentionally harming his teammates?

Honestly, I find it more likely that a townie would have done this. If he thought he had a reason, he may not have thought it through completely enough to realize that it was a bad move. Or maybe I am completely missing something that makes it helpful, but I doubt it. With that said, however, I find the nature of his first post very suspicious, due to reasons I have stated in my last post. I am not just going to let the move slide by just in case because I do see potential for it to be a good move by scum.

If this is a gambit, he is going to be cought. Every day, every night information streams in about the setup. Would be a very weird move. I don't see the potential for a "great move".

Not necessarily… it could work the other way around as well. As the game moves forward, more information comes in about what roles and letters were used to set up the game. The scum would know their own makeup, and therefore about how many letters were used on them. These letters would then provide an area for a “safe claim” as long as they know of a role that exists in the game and could have a “dependent role” as long as that dependent role does not already exist. By the time it gets that far though, there may be enough information for them to judge which ones are and aren’t in the game.

I have noticed a theme developing during this game already. This is that one real life day is a long time.

It looks liek we are still waiting for some people to post for the first time?

Posted less than 24 hours after the game started.

Sorry about the long gap between my last post and this. I've had school and just come back from band practice.

Posted approximately 23 hours after his last post.

@Nightwolf: The only comment I can make about you is that you have only made one post. It was a good, solid post, but it was still only one over the course of 3 days. It would be much appreciated if you would pick up your activity levels.

Posted 2 days after the game started, not 3 by the way.
On that note I would like to make a quick announcement. I usually do not have enough time to make more than 1-2 posts every 1-2 days (so between 0.5 to 2 posts per day). This may pick up a little on some weekends, but otherwise that is about what you can expect my posting rate to be. If this is not enough, please let me know and I will replace out.

Now, on to germy:
First, (italics added)

Let's say that another "dependent role" exists, and that player believes me. (I am not saying "backup role" because the dependent roles include the backups as well as a one-shot vig and masons). That second dependent role, without even claiming to the rest of the Town, now knows that we have at least a YYZZTTT situation.

That player now knows that the mafia has a roleblocker,

and that if there is a serial killer they will also have the CI ability.

That player has a distinct information advantage as a result of my claim, and can then make better lynch decisions and Night actions accordingly.

Again mentioning the roleblocker… How does knowing about a mafia roleblocker give them an information advantage? All it would do is allow that player to know the reason that their night action did not take effect. Seriously, take a look at the possible pro-town roles that have night actions… cop, doc, vig, and rb. All of them would be able to tell if their night action failed except for the rb. The only way they could possibly fail is by being roleblocked. Now, is there a way to tell if this was due to a mafia or townie roleblocker? No. Does it really matter? No. If there is a roleblocker of either kind and they choose to block you, that’s what happens. The only other option is if another rb blocks them, and they still wouldn’t know if they were successful or not with their choice. There is no way to stop yourself from being blocked, so how does knowing that one exists before you make a night action choice help you to make that choice? As far as I can tell, you would still choose the person you thought deserved that action with the only difference being that you would now be hoping that you aren’t blocked.
Knowing if a SK would have the CI ability is only marginally more useful. It would allow cops to know that they cannot always trust their innocent results, but there is also the chance that they are insane and therefore wouldn’t be able to completely trust them anyway until they can confirm their state of sanity.

I would like to dispute the Second point because I find your method a bit extreme and some of your statements depend on things I have already disagreed with, but Day 1 usually does require some sort of unusual move by someone to get it into more serious discussion before the normal way leads to a lynch without all that much reliable information. In this way I like that you made your claim, but I still believe that your information helps the mafia more than the town, especially since you originally wanted

all

dependent roles to claim.

Although I still do not like or agree with germy's actions yet, I am starting to think it may be better to wait until we have some more information before lynching him. Since his claim was mixed with information on the setup, knowing the results of the first lynch and night may help come to a better conclusion about him.

Unvote, FoS: germy

Moving on to cases against other people:
germy, are you talking about post 28 when you mention mykonian? If you are, I do not see that as wavering at all. He is simply summarizing his thoughts on the case against you there. He gave his stance on the topic in post 21 and has kept that stance through all of his posts since that point.

I do not understand germy’s reasoning behind Edify at all. He is making a point against him based

completely

on the assumption that mykonian is scum. This gives it no real weight unless mykonian does turn out to be scum, in which case he is still guessing about how mykonian would act as scum.
I also do not like Edify’s vote, and I can see what Kairyuu is saying, but I would like to see what Edify has to say for himself before I form too much of an opinion on this one.

On the springlullaby-sekinj topic, I do not feel that springlullaby’s attack was excessive. Poorly handled, perhaps, since she did not mention her reason for her vote originally and wasn’t very clear the first time she did, but since then it seems like she has just been mentioning it more times to get an answer/response from sekinj. sekinj has made 11 posts so far, and none of them have actually accused or gave opinions about anyone. She hasn't even placed a vote during that time for random or serious reasons. For someone who makes a comment saying that we should be scumhunting, I find this to be rather contradictory. All her posts have been doing is adding extra conversation to appear active while not actually taking any positions at all. This is active lurking like Kairyuu said, and can be an attempt to stay out of the spotlight and off of people's radars by not saying anything that could be used against her.

Vote: sekinj

and lastly, afatchic:

Really don't like how you CLAIMED on page 1. This doesn't mean its scummy, but quite ridiculous actually. You just planted a bullseye on yourself if you are town for a nightkill. To me it seems you're trying to appear very townly with an overkilled beginning post full of stuff that should appear later naturally.

No random vote this time around.

not necessarily

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim. and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum.

all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup

, since

the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles

.

while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be

, i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

Blue – I had made a long post just before this one saying how I cannot see knowledge of the setup is actually helpful. You seem to agree with germy and think it is. Can you give an example of how it can actually help the town?

Orange – No, the scum do not have a good idea of it. The most that they could figure out from their own setup is the relative number of town power roles, not what or who they are. However, by germy sharing his info, it would tell them who one of the dependent roles are and helps them to find the more powerful ones by taking him off of the list of people they could be.

Green – A better idea of who a backup role

might

be? It would tell them who a backup role

is

and help them to find the main power roles over time.

i thought it was a good idea and could prove helpful to some PR townies.

Once again… How?

I can usually respect that a person is willing to go against the crowd, who in this case, all thought germy’s claim is at least anti-town, but afatchic has not really offered any of his own reasoning for his view. Instead he has just been using the same things that germy has been saying that others have already argued against without actually supporting them.

FoS: afatchic

[germy]

Nightwolf -

I cannot say how, in a specific sense, how my information helps. No, it does not particularly help when a given power role makes a Night decision.

However, it

might

help in following Days when determining what happened during the Night.

I believe information is helpful to the Town, that's all. I saw my claim, of all possible claims, to give the Town maximum information with minimized damage.

[Kairyuu]

@germy: Your case against mykonian is weak. You are looking at everything he is doing as if he is scum, without taking the time to consider if his motivations could be pro-town. The fact that you are basing your views of Edify on mykonian being scum means that your case against him is even weaker, and I cannot support your opinions even though I have my own case against him.

As for your reason for not backing up your assumed town section, you are misinterpreting what I'm asking for. I did not ask you to list all of the tells that we left, but rather support your opinions. Stating that "I like his playstyle, it's very logical" does not tell the scum any more than "I think he is town, and I have a reason for that." In fact, it tells them less, because by saying you have a reason you won't state, you are implying that you think they are a power role. Saying that they are logical just says that you like their opinions. I will never ask anyone who they think is a power role. Reading Newbie 588 (Hi Artem) shows why this is an extremely bad idea, because that is what made the mafia win in that game. I will repeat my question: Why do you think those of us you mentioned as town are town, in a general or playstyle related way?

As for not thinking afatchic has posted enough to let me conclude that yet, you will soon notice that I am a very agressive player. This method is helpful in my opinion, because scum tend to be very shaken up about being attacked aggressively and continuously. This makes them slip up. I like to gather reactions, and the best way to do that is to play in a way that stands out (in your case, softclaiming on your first post, in mine, pushing for lynches on page 3).

@afatchic: I love it when the scum react in exactly the way I expect. To answer your question, here is what I'm saying:

okay

i like the first post my germy. i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already.

and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.i also agree that miller should claim now and it may help catch a scum early on.

Bolded: You issued a blanket statement saying that germy's initial post was good, that you agreed with it, and that you liked his ideas.

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim.

and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be,

i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

Bolded: You suddenly move from "I agree with what germy says" to "I liked the claim, but I don't like everything he wants us to do, so only millers should claim." A number of people had said by this point that germy was wrong, and that backups shouldn't claim because it would help the scum, so you say that you now don't think that backups should claim. But they had also stated that miller claims are a good idea, so you decided it was fine to continue agreeing with that part.

Italics: I can't believe I didn't see this before. That is exactly the attitude that lets scum skate by. Just because something doesn't hurt the town 'too much' or 'right now' does not, in any circumstance, mean you ignore it, especially with something like germy's idea, where it is quite clear that while it has no major negative effects (but no real positive effects either) on the town

right now

, there will be a time, in a game day or two, where it can mean the difference between a town win and a scum win.

And your bit about it not mattering if a backup is NKed because they can't do anything yet, that is one of the most antitown statements I have ever read. Killing a townie is

never

a good thing, and suggesting that it's fine to kill a backup power role because they don't have their power yet is like saying that you want to lose all investigative power if the cop dies, or lose all protection power if the doc dies.

Not thinking ahead is a major mistake that scum make, and it leads, more often than not, to them suggesting a scenerio in which the town's chances are severely reduced, and then getting caught for it. I think you made that mistake.

I'm also just

loving

the fact that you turned your vote on me from random OMGUS to full out OMGUS just because I made a case against you. I am about 80% sure you are scum right now.

Confirm vote: afatchic

for revealing even more scummy actions when called out on the first ones.

@mykonian: A reasonable post?!? He told people to start scumhunting when he hadn't even cast a vote or said anything of consequence all game. And he

still

hasn't posted substance yet, only argued with springlullaby.

@alvinz: If you're only going to post infrequently, then it would be appreciated if you would put more content into the posts you do make. Otherwise it is much harder to get any sort of read on you, because there is little to no information to go on later in the game.

@Artem: My vote on germy was a 'snap decision'? How so? He put up a post that had the potential to severely damage the town, and I called him out on it, because I could see scum trying that exact thing to make themselves look town. My opinion hasn't changed. I still think that germy hurt the town with his post, but I'm more interested in afatchic than him right now, so my vote moved (it has a tendency to do that alot).

Now to where you are calling me out for something I already explained:

First, the scum always have "12 (minus lynch and scum members)" to choose from during Night 1 so that statement says nothing.

Of course it says nothing. I said

instead of

, implying that that situation was the norm, and that germy had changed that in a way that affected the scum's choices.

Second, where does 4/7 come from?

Look at the words

right before that

. You know, where i said "according to you (in reference to germy)." Don't take my words out of context. And besides, I already explained that I had misinterpreted what germy had been talking about right there (I thought he meant 4 full power roles when he meant 4 roles including backups), so the point is moot either way.

I personally have a problem when players post numbers that are not immediately apparent and don't follow it up with an explanation, because:
a) They could be wrong;
b) They might be making some assumptions that should be stated explicitly. What's more important is they might be making some assumptions that only make sense from the mafia's point of view.

I have a problem with that too, which is why I did not do it. When I am making an assumption, I will state that it is an assumption, and when I post numbers (apart from scum percent chances, which are personal opinions which are likely to change from post to post) I give a reason for why they are there and what significance they have (in this case I was using what I thought germy's numbers were, which I

did

explain).

Your example is simply a case of nitpicking to the extreme. The meaning of the numbers was implied by the fact that people had been talking about there being 3 scum if germy was not lying. If you need to have everything spelled out for you so that you can make absolutely sure of what people mean, then you should not be jumping to conclusions about what I said because you misread it, but giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt for what he did. That is a bit hypocritical.

FOS: Artem

[iamausername]

This is a filler post to make a new page for the votecount.