Open 801: Trust Fall (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Trust Count 1.16

Uncrowned (2) - Necessary Sneasel, Hectic

Not Trusting (8) - Akarin, Fidget, Jake The Wolfie, Rainbow Reads, Gloria Cleary, shellyc, Uncrowned, PookyTheMagicalBear

The deadline is Sunday, December 6, 2020, at 7:30 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2020-12-06 19:30:00).

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

hm.

i have the impression that town!pooky is more abrasive/spontaneous while scum!pooky loves to buddy/present himself as likeable and I think the latter is happening rn

shelly so red lol

what is she even talking about

[Gloria Cleary]

hm.

i have the impression that town!pooky is more abrasive/spontaneous while scum!pooky loves to buddy/present himself as likeable and I think the latter is happening rn

Pooky wasn’t even remotely likeable in Hideyoshi. There’s a coldness to scum!Pooky like you almost feel you don’t want to get to close because he might be hiding a knife underneath all that cuddly fur so I disagree with you. I wanted to hug him in Death Curse but carry pepper spray in Hideyoshi.

I think cute Pooky is actually more often than not town!Pooky because I don’t feel like I feel the urge to mace him in this game.

[Fidget]

@Fidget, why do you think you’d be sr me here if it weren’t for Death Curse? I know you liked Rockhopper as well, so I really don’t understand your paranoia on me at all. Why wouldn’t negligent scum think I’m miselimable? I’m very obviously town here and it seriously baffles me how you’re not seeing it, yet.

Interestingly enough, that’s why I’m not sold on Pooky!scum because his reaction to RR putting me in the red means he’s tr me. I actually think his shocked reaction probably means he isn’t buddies with RR. So if Jake is town, then there’s someone wrong I’m tr here. I have no idea who yet.

You lend yourself to getting pocketed when you reciprocate townreads like this. And you're basing your read on Pooky off of his reaction to RR's read on you, as well. I'm very unsure how you're determining Pooky is town solely by his read on you.

I was suspecting you because of death curse, not in spite of it. Now I have a question for you: How good of a scum player do you feel you are, in general?

[Fidget]

I don't need to give reads because if I pair my daughters off correctly we win the game.

Are there three of us? You need to pair off three daughters correctly. And assuming you aren't dating one of us, that means you need to call 6/7 of the other townies correctly for this plan to work. Are you not concerned about that?

[Necessary Sneasel]

Yeah that was a prod dodge.

meh ok post towny things then lol

[Necessary Sneasel]

you think Jake and rainbow are that similar? can you try rainbow again?

They obviously have different playstyles, but yeah I think they're basically going to amount to the same in terms of difficulty reading. Neither strikes me as the scummiest player, for reasons I mentioned before, and your previous point on Rainbow, but at the same time I'd be super-hesitant to bet the game on both of them being town near endgame.

You disagree?

I think only one of them is making any effort to post game related content & feel like rr is a fair bit townier than Jake yeah I see what you get at tho

yeah my read on rr isn't crazy high confidence but taking Jake out here would be literal policy and I think he has non negligible scum equity so I'd rather not policy to help someone I just don't townread at all and go into sudden death

[Uncrowned]

rainbow reads is trustworthy af

[Necessary Sneasel]

Necessary Sneasel has rabies

that obvious huh

shellyc is someone I have no faith in my ability to read and hasn't done anything really notable but has been questioning Sneasel a bit

ideally town just wins without sorting shelly but I have a slight townread on her

[Necessary Sneasel]

Oh yeah, we should do a thing where we propose to the towniest people, and have them not accept. We can "clear" people if we slowly propose to the UTRs until we have a smaller pool. So we can IC people while keeping them in the game while they can continue to weigh in

interesting theory, ideally I'll be around after trust 1 to talk more about this

[Necessary Sneasel]

Because it would flip them now and the endgame would be actually readable players, and they don't seem like they're scumreading each other particularly.

We shouldn’t ship anyone unless we think they’re both town. If the majority think this then great but that’s the only way that makes sense.

Nothing about either has really pinged me either way but I want to hear from players who

actually have reads

on them.

Like Sneasel

and Fidget for example. I would be extremely shocked if either one of them flipped scum here, so I think I trust their reads the most.

don't slander me I have no reads

rainbow reads weakly town because I don't feel like they're trying to look town (this is a setup which necessitates scum being very likeable), so much as doing things which they need to do as town. their iso is very undersold.

jake has done nothing in this game

Um what? I called you one of my strongest trs. How am I slandering you?

bolded for illustration

calling me scum would be a compliment, not slander

[Necessary Sneasel]

Maybe. Playing the odds, sure, random nulls have a 4/5 chance of being town. There's only a 65% chance that both true nulls will both flip town, though, if I understand math.

odds shift down if we assume uncrowned is cleared
odds shift down again if we have consensus townreads

it's a good strategy in a weak plist where nobody towntells (so communal reads are closer to rand) but I'm not really sold on it unless people actually think Jake & rainbow both have a somewhere above rand chance of being town. vague "they feel like those lategame VT flips" isn't really doing it for me, we need to get grittier.

[Uncrowned]

I've come to the conclusion that I am town

Not sure about the rest of you though.

Rainbow Reads is 99% of the time just a pure homie and someone to have a couple drinks with

Sneasel is cute af but my mother always told me to not be vain

Pooky has a good heart but I just can't bring myself to accept them. It's not you, it's me. I don't want to let you down.

More updates later.

[Necessary Sneasel]

With Pooky, it's tricky. Usually I would expect him to seize hold of a gamestate as scum, whereas as town he might just do whatever. In this game though, I am not sure. You aren't really obligated to do anything except for get trusted, as both alignments, really. Figuring out who we shouldn't trust is helpful, but technically the bare minimum a townie must do is be trusted.

one good pocket can get you out of the game successfully
it takes one towny who wants you to be town to stuff up and give you the escape

people who try to towntell or get on people's good sides early are bad news

pedit: .... you like me don't you

[Necessary Sneasel]

If

HURT: RR No way town has either us so low.

?
who are you again

towncase yourself for me?

[Uncrowned]

you'll never catch me blushing

I am a man of dignity and elegance, and not one who will fall for cheap tricks.

Towncrowned is a mildly respected figure around these parts and he will be keeping his reputation together in this game.

[Necessary Sneasel]

don't slander me I have no reads

rainbow reads weakly town because I don't feel like they're trying to look town (this is a setup which necessitates scum being very likeable), so much as doing things which they need to do as town. their iso is very undersold.

jake has done nothing in this game

I feel the opposite way about Rainbow. They've been bringing out flashy readslists, but in reality they haven't really done anything to further town wincon with them at all. After all, they haven't really shown us their work, no? So it really only gives us the vague impression that Rainbow is solving, without them actually having to show us any of their solving.

If you want someone who isn't trying to look town, I'd point to Jake for that from what I can remember.

good take! if you think Jake and RR can be flipped in my reads I'm fine with that, I'm not married to my read on either of them

pairing them off is still a bad idea because there is scum equity in that pair regardless of which one it is

[Uncrowned]

ideally I'll be around after trust 1 to talk more about this

ooo yet you have me trusted atm?

[Necessary Sneasel]

Sneasel, you're going to need to do more than discredit reasons for Akarin being townread in order to prove she is scum. Townreads, I feel, are going to be inherently weak since there is A.) no elimination mechanic, B.) many many absences, and C.) no flips yet.

So far, I have only noticed your insane Freudian unconscious guilt theory on why Akarin is scum here. Do you have more?

not really
she posted elsewhere onsite between the post before the one that struck me as guilty & her post before it so I kinda assumed she wasn't literally inactive the whole time

I'm still surprised she didn't feel compelled to engage with anything else, I'm still struck by the fact she's more focused on mechplay than reads, but she has some kind of tonally natural posting style that could also be town

I'll work her out later if I need to, someone we don't really care for can trust her if they want. if we do the Jake/RR thing and there's scum in there I do think akarin should be endgamed but if it's like rr/akarin or something then someone like Pooky probably loses the game for town anyway so let's hope it's not

[Necessary Sneasel]

No, I only mean the part about scum being guiltied if they trust each other. Not his theory concerning Pooky/Uncrowned. Uncrowned is very likely town though.

Oh. I see.

This is how I'm feeling currently. No heavy review, just from catching up. I want to believe I've got both scum below the dash, but beyond that, not so confident.

{Uncrowned}
{Akarin, Sneasel}
{Gloria}
-
{Hectic}
{shelly}
{Rainbow, Jake, Pooky}

could you dissect those hectic & shelly reads for me?

[Necessary Sneasel]

hectic actually proposed this time

and this ring... oh my! it's massive. how much did this cost?!?!

I... I'll have to think about it

hello..... I'm right here.....

[Necessary Sneasel]

RR has seriously questionable reads

why aren't you asking questions then?

[Jake The Wolfie]

I think this has already been stated, but I just wanted to throw it out there that UC is probably (though not confirmed) town.

However, I'm pretty sure the next thought I had hasn't been said yet:
Could Uncrowned be deepwolfing to get their partner on the bench of trust fallees?

[Necessary Sneasel]

town!Pooky sometimes has some pretty good reads

love that you call rr's readlist fishy but use this as a reason to posture reconsidering a hard townread

[Necessary Sneasel]

I don't need to give reads because if I pair my daughters off correctly we win the game.

Who would you like Akarin and Fidget to be paired with?

Posts like these make me think it isn’t Pooky.

One or both scum in RR/Jake.

Uncrowned/Fidget/Shelley top town reads,

hmm not as hard as I was thinking maybe
not really important, keep posting Gloria