Ok I'm going to simplify things best i can.
If a 4 person cult exists (1 recruiter with 3 recruits)
And we lynch a townie or a mafioso
then its 4 cult and 6 other going into night
If cult successfully recruits someone and is not nightkilled then we have 5 cult 4 scum or town. Game over cult wins
it cult gets nked its 3 to 6 which will make things back ok where we started in terms of proportions 4 to 7 >> 3 to 6
OR...
If we lynch a cult recruit
its 3 cult and 7 town or scum going into night
if cult successfully recruits its 4 to 6
if cult is then nked its 3 to 6.
which will make things back ok where we started in terms of proportions
4 to 7 >> 3 to 6
And if townie is nked its 4 to 5. That be sucking bad!
BUT...
If we lynch a cult recruiter
its 3 recruits and 7 other going into night.
Cult can no longer sucessfully recruit
nk hits cult then its 2 to 7 otherwise its 3 to 6 but they can't recruit again ever.
Lynching the recruiter today would be our best chance of effectivly avoiding lylo should a cult exist. if we don't lynch a recruit or the recruiter the cult will win if they aren't nightkilled. So
@Gurgi...
This is Lylo!
We have to decide if they are a red herring or not today because if they are around, not lynching cult with or without mass claim is potentially game over.
@Azimuth,
you are correct that mafioso's can have extra actions. Darla was a role attractor and scum after all.
BUT cultrecruiters always have only 2 possible actions recruit or kill. Cult recruiters can't role block or any confirmable crap like that anywhere in my cult experience and I have never read a game where a cult could do more than recruit or kill. This plan will not out the mafia or recruits. It is designed to get the main cult guy only.
If the recruits can't talk with and don't know the identity of their recruiter, then an un-recruiter would not potentially break the entire setup. It is possible cult can know its members and leader all around but i don't think its likly. If recruits and leader can talk and know each others real names then any preset or picked claim order could be bent to their advantage. This is why I suggest a completly random order determined by dice be used.
From my view point I can confirm 5 people as having actions that can't belong to cult recruiters.
1) Strappado
2) Whoever is The machine that goes Bing
3) Whoever is The Bridgekeeper
4) Whoever is The other role that hit me night 1
5) K7
6) If you guys want to count me you can here. I don't like saying it myself since i can't clear myself only those I target can confirm me as not lying about what i can do.
11 people alive total. We can verify 5+ that aren't recruiter.
These 5 people including myself can still be mafia or recruits
, but they can not be the recruiter based on their true character actions being known. Cult recruiters can't watch, track, go bing (or whatever), bridge keep, or do the other thing that hit me night 1. Cult recruiters can only kill or recruit. Since the six above don't kill or recruit then they aren't the recruiter. They can still be scum or recruit but recruiter is not possible.
@Strappado,
nope this is not cheating. Scum usually have safe claims to stop this sort of thing and avoid it from destroying the entire group. Chenshi had a safe claim of the Black Knight or he just got lucky guessing something no one counterclaimed. The action Chenshi claimed was kill protection. That skill is 100% percent unconfirmable. So if chenshi was alive he would be suspect for potential cult recruiter.
@Azimuth again,
This claim procedure is not designed to find a role that fits a character who we think could be a recruiter. The character description don't determine who is cult automatically. A good guy can have a bad guy role and a bad character can have a good guy role. I have seen things flopped like that before. I would not have pegged Bruce as the Cop either, so we will not be lynching a guy because his character makes sence as a cult recruiter. We will be narrowing down those with un-confirmable actions and overall scummy play and lynching them since they are scummy and have potential for being the recruiter.
The cons of the massclaim
is if there is no cult (they are a red herring) I would estimate a scum group of at least 2 maybe 3 remaining based on usual 18 player game balance. It is common knowledge that a too early massclaim can give the scum group a road map of which role is best to night kill when. This is our main con and we would also be telling mafia what we all do so that they could know how to exploit things there too. Massclaims are always high risk high reward based on how the town plays things.
If we lynch the recruiter today we will be back in business away from lylo. And ironically if scum use what knowledge they gained to kill a cultist then things will be more against the cult. If cult exists and they ain't killed or lynched. We are all fucked!
If someone has a better idea to find the cult then massclaiming they are more than welcome to come forward with it. If Elvis has some role that will reveal a better way, it is solely up to her if she wants to claim now and give this other idea.
Massclaim is just the best idea i can think of at the moment and if a better one with far less risk can be thought up then we should use that idea.
I believe I've put out all facts in terms of what we can gain and loose with and without a massclaim. I feel it will increase our potential for lynching cult.
If anyone feels I missed some big obv con then speak now. We need to decide today...
1) If cult exists
2) What is best way to find recruiter.
3) is Massclaim best and only way
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Massclaim(3): PokerFace, Farside, Strappado
No Massclaim(2): Muerto, Azimuth
???(2): Gurgi, Elvis
Not voting (Everybody else)
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When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly