Mini 619 - Ramen Mafia (Over!)

[charter]

My daily post.

[ClockworkRuse]

My daily post.

Please say something more then "My daily post."

Try to find something to support your case against sthar. The more active lurking you do, the more reason I have to be suspicious of you.

[charter]

First of all, I do not need any help with my vote. I'm not going to let anyone manipulate my vote like that.

I just thought from this you didn't want a gigantic battle between me and sthar8. I'll get on why sthar8 is scum for you.

[ClockworkRuse]

First of all, I do not need any help with my vote. I'm not going to let anyone manipulate my vote like that.

I just thought from this you didn't want a gigantic battle between me and sthar8. I'll get on why sthar8 is scum for you.

What I meant by that is that sthar said "Let me know if you need any help with your vote" and I didn't like that.

You should still be making a case because you will obviously interrupt things differently then me and you might see something I missed.

[charter]

Ahhh, sorry I misunderstood you. I'll post some thoughts in a bit.

[strife220]

Are you re-reading still CWR? Are you undecided, or heavily leaning one way, or what?

[ClockworkRuse]

I'm undecided. I can see the cases of both sides as being plausible.

[strife220]

I'll do a re-read on Charter later tonight and see if I can come up with a defense on why he doesn't make a lot of sense as scum.

[sthar8]

sthar, you seem to be under-estimating the intelligence of the scum which I think is a bad play. We should always assume that the scum are going to make it harder for the town, right?

Ummm, what? Didn't we talk earlier about how we shouldn't give scum advice on their nightactions so that they might possibly screw up? All I'm doing is trying to aim the town at the choices that are most likely to result in a town win.

Bad claim, no kill N2 (when BB jailed him), process of elimination, no play inconsistent with being scum, process of elimination, etc etc

What about my claim was bad, other than your insistance that it can't be part of the setup for some reason?

I've already addressed the N2 kill situation. There are plenty of other explanations for that, and ignoring them doesn't make any of them less likely.

You understand that you should only eliminate options when you're sure, right? "Process of elimination" is invalid unless there are no other options, and it's pretty clear at this point that your evidence isn't really solid. You may be convinced that your reasoning is some kind of flawless masterpiece, but it should be pretty clear to anyone who isn't blindly following faulty logic that you're risking an awful lot on some pretty tenuous assumptions.

And what the hell is "No play inconsistant with being scum?" You're saying that I should be lynched in LYLO because I'm not cleared town? But you can't point to any specific scumtells? And you don't see anything wrong with this?

I'd really like to know what the et cetera is, because I don't see anything that you've presented that isn't covered by the weak points you enumerated.

I'll do a re-read on Charter later tonight and see if I can come up with a defense on why he doesn't make a lot of sense as scum.

Right. Charter won't defend himself, so you should do it for him. That's definitely pro-town. And I like how you're not hunting up reasons that I'm scum, your looking for reasons charter might not be. Good job, carry on.

It's pretty amazing what insane things you can come up with when you don't want to admit that you're wrong.

[ClockworkRuse]

Daily post. No time, will post thoughts later tonight.

[charter]

I teased Oman about the name claim in order to let him know that I got the joke and found it amusing. I don't think the rolename "Creamy Chicken" would tell us anything, since Chicken could either refer to some kind of healing as a reference to chicken soup, hiding as a reference to being chicken, vanilla as a reference to the popularity of the flavor (or, everything tastes like chicken), or mafia if our Mod doesn't like it.

Softclaimed several different roles, then claimed a different flavor and role after all those got taken.

Beyond_Birthday: I haven't attacked anyone yet. What I

am

doing is asking a lot of questions while expressing my opinions on things the town seems interested in. Some of the questions I ask may seem insignificant; I assure you that they are not. The answers to these early, low pressure questions provide a baseline by which we can evaluate the behavior of individuals and groups later in the game.

He's playing very cautiously. I consider playing overly cautiously to be a scumtell, as the general reason for it is to avoid all suspicion. Also, did your evaluation of players based on your early seemingly insignificant questions ever happen?

I'm going to go ahead and

Unvote, Vote: charter

You have six in-game posts, and three of those have been votes. Two of the remaining three have been explanations for your serious votes. Now, your second point against Darla may be valid (I'll wait till her post to decide) but it seems to me that you are fishing for reactions with these votes, which could be scum trying out wagons to find the easy lynch.

Has waited quite a bit after I vote Darla to vote me (after several others have found it suspicious). He posted a few times after I vote Darla before he made this one. Why wait until after it's safe to say my actions are suspicious?

Food: Just because some of us think the wagon on you was silly doesn't mean you can lurk. I need opinions from you about other players.

Aka, do I need to kill you tonight?

That's up to page 11, continuing further now once I get something to eat.

[charter]

I'll believe for now that Kiwi has a killing role, as I expected at least two kills per night in this setup, and a controlled kill is verifiable.

This after Kiwi's out of the blue claim. What caused you to "expect" at least two kills per night? I don't see how you infer that from Kiwi's claim, WK's and your own role without intimate knowledge of the scum's roles. Also, you've been doing setup guessing for longer than strife but still remand him for doing it!

Follows me after I question CWR for his repeated speculation. Then also follows after I and strife suggest that we wait until D3 to lynch Meurrto.

post 530, sthar8 flip flops on massclaim when there's not enough time left before deadline for it to be of any town benefit.

BB claims to jail sthar8 in 586. Both N1 and N2, and there was no N2 kill...

All through day three, you were all for the whole BB jail WK plan, same as I, but since I did it I've 'been going along with the town' as you say.

I think that the fact that I still live shows that most of the players have already independantly determined that the odds of a scum that is not me accidentally trying to kill someone who is protected are greater than or equal to the odds of me being RB'd scum.

I never came to that conclusion, I didn't see anyone else come to it either. It looks like you're trying to suggest something that sounded plausible since some of us were confused a little.

That covers up until today. I think I already responded to sthar8's accusations against me. Anything someone wants me to clarify or anything?

[strife220]

Did a bit of digging on 'all posts by...'
Darla didn't actually address Sthar8 a single time through the entire game.

Charter did some early day voting on Darla.

Yea didn't come up with anything particularly incriminating for either candidate. Maybe I'll try an actual re-read later.


In the meantime:
Sthar8, why do you think there was no kill N2?

[sthar8]

Charter did some early day voting on Darla.

If you really need more, lets further examine some of your positions since day 1. You were against lynching Muerrto on the day that WK claimed, you expressed no suspicions of darla until almost everyone else had already done so, you tried to push the CWR wagon even once the darla one had gotten underway, but you switched your vote to darla once it was clear she was going down. In contrast to your hesistance to vote for scum, your day 1 play shows no caution with the placement of your vote, and you were willing to vote for CWR and BB right away later in the game.

You may bring up the fact that one of your day 1 votes was for darla, but I'll remind you that your vote was the only one on her at the time and your reasons were garbage. We have a name for that, and it begins with a D.

Sthar8, why do you think there was no kill N2?

I agree that it's most likely that scum tried to kill me

because

I

had

breadcrumbed cop, doc, and vig on the first day, which you pointed out in your last argument. I didn't softclaim because it was a terrible idea, but my staunch opposal to a massclaim should have written "special role" in glow-in-the-dark paint all over my naked body.

[strife220]

You breadcrumbed cop, doc, and vig. So scum decided to try to kill you, even though the cop was outed, you didn't counter-claim the doc after 2 days, it was clear we didn't have a vig, AND there were 3 people that explicitly claimed powerroles?

[sthar8]

You have to read all the words. I was basically confirmed to have some kind of power even if they missed all the breadcrumbing, and it was something that would make me oppose a massclaim, meaning something we wouldn't want scum to know about. You, BB, and food, however, announced your desire to out your roles, which should have said to scum that your powers weren't really that dangerous. If you'd been some kind of information role you would have either stayed hidden, or just claimed, and if you were protective, you should have wanted to stay hidden.

And they didn't know I wasn't the doc, because charter isn't. It's conceivable that a doc would not counter in order to be able to protect a claimed cop safely. In fact, that's probably the correct play.

And I'm not sure how it's clear that we didn't have a vig, since someone could have tried to kill Oman to prevent shenanigans, and not to counter kiwi, since he could just kill the impostor later. This is also probably correct play.

See, you keep oversimplifyng the circumstances, so it's no wonder that you think your deductions are the correct ones. You're ignoring competing theories because they don't fit with your preferred explanation for events.


So, I've been thinking about the night actions. I'm going to guess that kiwi was RB'd that night, because he had said that he might target Muerrto if Oman looked scummy. The mafia then killed Oman, because they thought thought that the cop would investigate him and find him innocent, because they wanted to eliminate his potential power, or because Muerrto, having played with Oman before, thought that he'd be able to talk his way out of getting lynched. Kiwi's convenient modkill freed up the RB for N2, and they attempted to kill me because I looked to have a dangerous role, and I'd been casting suspicion on one of their members the previous day. Knowing that the cop was no longer a threat and that the other power roles didn't seem suspicious of them, the mafia could easily afford to ignore the three softclaims and go fishing for any real docs or unclaimed information roles. After massclaim, darla was unfortunate enough to be caught by a lucky guess. Seeing an easy opportunity to get BB lynched, our remaining scum blocked him and killed the now-useless cop. That left no need for roleblocking on Night four, and a choice between CWR, food, and strife for the nk. Not once since day 1 has strife expressed any doubt in the doc claim. Therefore strife was the most likely ally our false doctor could expect coming into today. I don't know why scum decided to kill food over CWR, because CWR had expressed doubt in the doc claim much earlier (though he was shouted down for it by charter and Muerrto, hmmm). Either way, it was mainly irrelevant, because strife had already expressed his confidence that neither food nor CWR could be scum.

[charter]

I think it's pretty clear sthar8 that no one else is the doc. You really think that I'd, as scum, claim doc day 1 and expect not to get countered and then not lynched at some point in the game? Really?

[strife220]

That left no need for roleblocking on Night four, and a choice between CWR, food, and strife for the nk. Not once since day 1 has strife expressed any doubt in the doc claim. Therefore strife was the most likely ally our false doctor could expect coming into today. I don't know why scum decided to kill food over CWR, because CWR had expressed doubt in the doc claim much earlier (though he was shouted down for it by charter and Muerrto, hmmm). Either way, it was mainly irrelevant, because strife had already expressed his confidence that neither food nor CWR could be scum.

Funny. Food was the only one to explicitly say in thread:

I agree with a lynch on BB.

Vote Beyond_Birthday

...
If BB turns up town I suggest we target Sthar8.

[sthar8]

I think it's pretty clear sthar8 that no one else is the doc.

Is there another language that I can type this in that you'd understand? I'm speaking to knowledge of the scum on early days, not our knowledge now. Unless this is a ridiculous straw-man, you need to start thinking before you post. Do you really think that someone could believe, at this point, that someone had fake-claimed during the massclaim,

and

not counterclaimed you in LYLO?

You really think that I'd, as scum, claim doc day 1 and expect not to get countered and then not lynched at some point in the game? Really?

Horse Laugh? No, I think that you, as scum, felt caught by the Day 1 wagon and claimed doc to bait the real doc into counterclaiming so that your team could nightkill him. The fact that there is no doc in this setup means that you got very lucky and have been able to ride that luck out to the endgame. I'm pretty sure I've outlined all this before.

Funny. Food was the only one to explicitly say in thread:

I noticed that too. That actually could be WIFOM, or it could be that charter felt that I would be able to talk food out of lynching me. I'm confident that I could have.

I noticed that I've missed a couple charter posts. I'll address them shortly.

[charter]

Why wouldn't I pick something reasonably believable and not virtually impossible to continue living while claimed (such as your claim) instead of my instant painting a bulls eye on myself? Fakeclaiming doc DOES NOT make sense, sure you might get the real doc to confess, but a one for one trade is not something that scum usually (if ever) do...

You have outlined it before, but I have to keep correcting you because you're wrong.

[sthar8]

Softclaimed several different roles, then claimed a different flavor and role after all those got taken.

Are you suggesting that I softclaimed scum in this quote? Clearly you missed the

actual

breadcrumbing I did, which lends credence to the theory that it was my Day 2 behavior that made you want to kill me.

He's playing very cautiously. I consider playing overly cautiously to be a scumtell, as the general reason for it is to avoid all suspicion. Also, did your evaluation of players based on your early seemingly insignificant questions ever happen?

Yeah, it's not like that post was from early day 1 when no one had made any scummy moves yet. And if this is such a scumtell to you, why didn't you bring it up on day 1? You seemed to have no problem attacking anyone

else

for no reason. As for my evaluation of motive, where do you think I got

every suspicion I've expressed in this game

? Just because I say that I use a certain method to scumhunt does not mean I'm promising a gigantic post full of psychoanalysis. And just because I describe one of the tools I use doesn't mean it's the only one.

Has waited quite a bit after I vote Darla to vote me (after several others have found it suspicious). He posted a few times after I vote Darla before he made this one. Why wait until after it's safe to say my actions are suspicious?

I voted you

less than 24 hours

after you voted for her. This is approximately how long it took me to review your actions and decide that they were scummy. And my posts between were addressing other conversations that I was involved with. Futhermore, only

one

person had actually expressed suspicion of that vote, and one other had asked for clarification. I was also waiting for Darla's next post, because I felt that there might be some merit to your "waiting for a case to latch onto" remark, and I was hoping to see her reactions.

Aka, do I need to kill you tonight?

How is it anti-town to want every player to be contributing, and to be transparent with their suspicions?

Do they call you Mr. Fantastic?

This after Kiwi's out of the blue claim. What caused you to "expect" at least two kills per night? I don't see how you infer that from Kiwi's claim, WK's and your own role without intimate knowledge of the scum's roles. Also, you've been doing setup guessing for longer than strife but still remand him for doing it!

Umm, do you remember what my role is? Based on my role and the prequel game, I guessed that we would likely have at least two kills per night. And I continue to

reprimand

strife because there is a fundamental difference between the kind of guess that I made and, for example, an assertion that there could be no more town power. You'll not that I noted a

possibility

in the setup as

part

of my support for deciding whether a claim was believable. I did not gamble anything on my guess, and I was not entirely convinced by speculation. I only noted that I felt it was likely, but that we should test it anyway. What I

didn't

do was come up with a theory based entirely on what I felt would be "balanced" and some vague "norm," then stretch or ignore evidence in order to fit said theory.

Follows me after I question CWR for his repeated speculation.

Now you're just making things up. I'd like to see any evidence you think you have for this, because I remember stressing that I was suspicious of CWR for different reasons, and that yours were very weak. And I'm not sure, but I think my criticism of CWR began on day 1, while yours started on Day 2.

Then also follows after I and strife suggest that we wait until D3 to lynch Meurrto

What? Are you even reading the same thread?

Closest thing I can find would be:

I guess I can deal with the "lynch the second best option today and save Muerrto for tomorrow" plan, even if I don't like it.

What about this makes you think I agreed with your ridiculous plan?

post 530, sthar8 flip flops on massclaim when there's not enough time left before deadline for it to be of any town benefit.

First, how is this scummy? Second, I disagree that it was too late in the day for town benefit. Massclaim actually took slightly more than one day, if you cut through all the irrelevant objections. We still would have had about a week left in day 2 had we not accidentally lynched Muerrto. Six days should have been enough time to process the claims, especially since we'd already decided on the lynch. Third, I "flip flopped" because I had pointed out the town advantages to avoiding massclaim, and some players foolishly decided to strip us of those advantages. There was no reason

not

to massclaim after the softclaim stupidity, so why would it be scummy to advocate it?

BB claims to jail sthar8 in 586. Both N1 and N2, and there was no N2 kill...

You are reading my posts and strife's, right? Weve discussed this at length.

All through day three, you were all for the whole BB jail WK plan, same as I, but since I did it I've 'been going along with the town' as you say.

Tu Quoque? How does agreeing with you once invalidate my claim that you have been playing it safe and following along with strife?

I never came to that conclusion, I didn't see anyone else come to it either. It looks like you're trying to suggest something that sounded plausible since some of us were confused a little.

Again, just because it's not in thread, doesn't mean no one is thinking about it. And if you felt I was so scummy at that point, then why didn't you say anything about it? My conclusion was reasonable from the evidence available, and no one corrected it, which suggests that it was true.

Why wouldn't I pick something reasonably believable and not virtually impossible to continue living while claimed (such as your claim) instead of my instant painting a bulls eye on myself? Fakeclaiming doc DOES NOT make sense, sure you might get the real doc to confess, but a one for one trade is not something that scum usually (if ever) do...

Why would town leave someone with my claimed power alive? There's no way to positively confirm my role, and it's not helpful to town unless the player doesn't look scummy. "Bulletproof" is

not

one of the roles that will save you if claimed when wagoned. Cop was already taken, and scum will trade one for one if they're trading with a doc, especially if they already think they're caught.

You have outlined it before, but I have to keep correcting you because you're wrong.

Actually, this is the first time you've "corrected" me, usually you just strawman me or ignore my points.

[ClockworkRuse]

Here. I will have more time to post tomorrow. Another game took my time tonight with a re-read, so I will concentrate on here tomorrow.

[ClockworkRuse]

Okay, not much time at the moment. So just a few points that I'm going to point out.

-Strife is more likely than not Town. It wouldn't make much sense to me for him to be a Scum Mason/Roleblocker mixed into one. That's a pretty over-powered role. Plus, why would they kill their mason partner if they could use their partner's vote?

-Sthar, you say that you don't understand why scum wouldn't have killed me. It is exactly why you say, I did question the doctor claim. Why, if I was still suspicious of it, would the scum kill me? That doesn't make much sense at all.

-I don't see how Charter claiming Doctor would have been a smart idea for a role-blocker to do. The mafia would have been losing more than the town, in my opinion, with a God Father and a Goon left. It seems like an unnecessary risk.

-The interaction between Darla and Sthar is noted.

[sthar8]

-Strife is more likely than not Town. It wouldn't make much sense to me for him to be a Scum Mason/Roleblocker mixed into one. That's a pretty over-powered role. Plus, why would they kill their mason partner if they could use their partner's vote?

I agree.

-Sthar, you say that you don't understand why scum wouldn't have killed me. It is exactly why you say, I did question the doctor claim. Why, if I was still suspicious of it, would the scum kill me? That doesn't make much sense at all.

Ummm, what? Charter might kill anyone who was suspicious of his claim in order to make the final lynch easier by decreasing suspicion on himself. The real question is, why would charter leave you alive knowing you had been suspicious of his claim? I think maybe he forgot that you had been suspicious of the surviving doc thing (supported by his posts, in which he accuses me of being the first to bring it up) or that he felt it wouldn't matter since I have been so suspicious of you that you would be inclined to vote me.

-I don't see how Charter claiming Doctor would have been a smart idea for a role-blocker to do. The mafia would have been losing more than the town, in my opinion, with a God Father and a Goon left. It seems like an unnecessary risk.

With a cop and vig claimed, the only remaining significant threat to the scum is a doc. If we had had a doc, and said doc had gone unclaimed, scum would be forced to block the cop and hope to get rid of the vig, then hope that the doc would be outed before the rb was lynched. It would, of course, have been optimal to keep the RB hidden, but the town chose him for the next wagon. When their RB fell under suspicion, he needed to get rid of any doc so that his partners would be able to kill the cop on the next night, and be left with only a vig who they couldn't deal with anyway. When he wasn't counterclaimed, he was in a very safe place. The cop would be unlikely to investigate a claimed doc, and no sane vig would shoot at one. If he could keep under the radar, he'd be good at least until LYLO. And look what happened! In short, fakeclaim doc wasn't a dangerous risk, it was a last-ditch attempt to help his buddies. Such a gambit was necessary because of the circumstances; in almost every other situation scum would have still lost their RB, and for less potential gain. No counter was very lucky for charter, and was probably an unexpected bonus.

On a side note, I just realized how unlucky it was for scum that Muerrto was investigated. If WK had not misread Kiwi's intentions, Muerrto might have gone quite a bit longer without being discovered. Since Darla was immune to investigation and Charter was unlikely to be looked at as a claimed doc, and Muerrto was expected to die that night, cop shouldn't have been investigating scum. Therefore, there would be no need to kill the cop, as he would likely investigate Oman, who was marked for death accordingly.

-The interaction between Darla and Sthar is noted.

That's fine, but you should keep in mind that I had no control over her actions. Such a strategy could have been intentionally employed by scum in order to implicate me in the event of her death, or it could be a coincidence. I wasn't particularly suspicious of Darla until the end, and I wasn't scummy enough for her to lynch easily, so there was no need to interact with me.

[charter]

Just started school again, and I won't have time to address these tonight, but it's coming when I get a chance.