Mini 619 - Ramen Mafia (Over!)

[charter]

I have a dilemma. I think No Lynch is the proper play here (go into endgame with three and not four) but I'm all but convinced that CWR and strife are town. CWR after outing Darla like that, when there was no need for him to bus, and strife after food's mason flip. Hence, that leaves sthar8. I will try and get in a reread when I can and see where that leads me.

I don't see how telling who I protected is going to help us, but if you all want to know, I will tell.

[strife220]

We have no information roles (cop = dead), and I'm a confirmed townie. So all a night will do is let scum kill me. No purpose.

Might as well say who Charter

[charter]

strife220

[sthar8]

vote: charter

strife, I don't consider you completely cleared, but you are so unlikely as scum that I'm not going to worry about it.

CWR: I'm not even close to sure on you, and I'm not sold on the idea that you wouldn't have bussed Darla, but the setup makes more sense if charter is the scum.

The big point in charter's favor is that he claimed doc day 1, when he couldn't have known that there wasn't another doc in the setup. I think that his claim was intended to bait a real doc out, and give scum some gain from the loss of their roleblocker. When there was no counterclaim, he played along and hoped no one would notice that a claimed doc didn't die for

four consecutive nights

. We might be able to WIFOM some reasoning about hoping that he gets modkilled for the first couple of nights, but in the lategame there is no reason for scum to leave him alive if he's a doctor. In addition, I think the setup actually makes more sense without a doctor than with. strife, you gave the example of a standard cop, doc, vig, mason game, which you said favored the town slightly. If I am scum, that means our town power is cop, doc, JOAT, jailkeeper, masons. Doesn't it make more sense to balance this game by giving the town an underpowered doc (jailkeeper) and a bulletproof townie? The cop+doc combo is very powerful, and with the amount of power we already have I can't help but think the mod would have taken some precaution against it.

I understand that we're in LYLO, but there can't be two scum left, so there's no chance of a quicklynch off of my vote, even if I'm entirely wrong about charter.

[strife220]

Doc not getting killed N1 is very surprising. However, regardless of who's scum, I can't wrap my head around why Oman was killed. N2 there was no kill, so who knows why the doc survived - having 2 strikes is a decent explanation. After role-claim, there was no need to kill the doc given that the role-blocker can clearly block and make kills. So the only strange result is N1, which is unexplainable any way.

Game is perfectly balanced if Oman wasn't pro-town, which I think is true.


I definitely think CWR is town. I'm much much more confident Sthar8 is scum than Charter, and if that's all Sthar8 can muster up, I don't see a point in excessive discussion.

Vote: Sthar8

If you think more needs to be said, go ahead and pose some questions. Charter will surely pick Sthar8 over himself, so it's up to you to either lynch Sthar8 or change my mind.

[sthar8]

having 2 strikes is a decent explanation

Not really. You think it's reasonable, knowing how powerful a doc is, that scum would

hope

that a claimed doc would get modkilled because he's not active enough? On a night when, if you're correct, 2/3 of the members had no suspicion cast on them yet, so there was no pressing need to kill anywhere else? And you're making assumptions here. Maybe the scum were afraid of whatever power Oman might gain, so they blocked kiwi and killed him. Or maybe killing Oman didn't activate his power and scum targetted me. Or maybe they just no-killed to cause some kind of WIFOM.

Game is perfectly balanced if Oman wasn't pro-town, which I think is true.

The best we can say about Oman's ability at this point is that he

might

have switched alignments at some point. Any idea that he started out as scum is inane, unless you suspect that every other player who has died might have been scum. Even if Oman started as some kind of neutral and our mod didn't tell us that when he died, I fail to see how that balances two reliable doc effects plus a one-shot doc and cop. You

know

about as much about the setup now as you did when you

insisted

there couldn't be any more power roles.

if that's all Sthar8 can muster up

What, exactly were you expecting? You're making random assumptions based on faulty logic using an appeal to authority, then voting based on the flawed conclusions. I've pointed out several times how dangerous it is to make baseless assumptions and try to outguess the mod, but you ignore me and keep doing it anyway. "Our cop is probably insane, guys" "let's not lynch muerrto, guys" "there can't be any more power roles, guys." How many times do you have to be wrong before you see that your approach is flawed?

Look, all game I've made pro-town moves, been transparent with my motives and intent, and answered any questions put to me. No one has expressed any suspicion of anything other than the probability of my role being in this setup, which means I haven't been very scummy. Charter, in contrast, got called out day 1 for mudslinging, WIFOM, and poor logic. If you really need me to specifically address your "case" however:

a) Or, my motives could be exactly what I said they were when

I pointed out that I had breadcrumbed

. It's not like this is some kind of lie that you caught me in. And what am I supposed to say about your "normalcy" argument? I have no idea what you're using as a standard, since the most explaining you've done is say " I have Experience. Because of my Experience, I know that X is Normal. See, here's a game with X. Therefore X is Normal." Regardless, your standard certainly isn't applicable here. I can't really prove that, of course, but I've tried to make you see how dangerous it is to apply some meta ideal to a specific game.

b) Actually, I

had

breadcrumbed cop, doc, and vig on the first day, which you pointed out in your last argument. I didn't softclaim because it was a terrible idea, but my staunch opposal to a massclaim should have written "special role" in glow-in-the-dark paint all over my naked body. Besides, that's yet another false dilemma. I agree that it's most likely that scum tried to kill me, but it could have been that they missed their deadline. Or, I could be wrong about charter, and he could have protected someone. And you can replace my name with

anyone

in that last argument and it still holds water.

Food agreed with me

SURPRISE! No offense to Food, but he has been following you around like a lost puppy all game. And let's not forget that he's the one who suggested that a softclaim was a good idea because it might distract and confuse the scum.

I also find it hilarious that, now that it looks like CWR might agree to lynch me, charter feels the need to point out that he protected

you

, strife. Doesn't that make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside?

So how about instead of quicklynching me because strife doesn't understand why I don't have a night action, you guys think carefully about this before deciding who needs to die.

Regardless, I'd appreciate it if you guys would give me a few more days of life to work something out before murdering me.

[charter]

The big point in charter's favor is that he claimed doc day 1, when he couldn't have known that there wasn't another doc in the setup. I think that his claim was intended to bait a real doc out, and give scum some gain from the loss of their roleblocker. When there was no counterclaim, he played along and hoped no one would notice that a claimed doc didn't die for

four consecutive nights

. We might be able to WIFOM some reasoning about hoping that he gets modkilled for the first couple of nights, but in the lategame there is no reason for scum to leave him alive if he's a doctor. In addition, I think the setup actually makes more sense without a doctor than with. strife, you gave the example of a standard cop, doc, vig, mason game, which you said favored the town slightly. If I am scum, that means our town power is cop, doc, JOAT, jailkeeper, masons. Doesn't it make more sense to balance this game by giving the town an underpowered doc (jailkeeper) and a bulletproof townie? The cop+doc combo is very powerful, and with the amount of power we already have I can't help but think the mod would have taken some precaution against it.

This is exactly what I was waiting for. The explanation as to why I've lived through all the nights. It was the most likely scenario I had come up with, and you've confirmed it for me. My theory is that you knew that this was coming and knew that the town would have no choice but to lynch the doc. I figured the last scum would use WIFOM right off the bat to try and get me lynched as opposed to actual arguments as to why I'm scummy. A) It's a whole lot easier and B) It's extremely believable in this situation. I have no explanation for living this long, and for failing to protect anyone the entire game (though that's really just two nights). Neither CWR nor strife proposed the WIFOM argument, even though they both must have been thinking it for a while.

Doesn't it make more sense to balance this game by giving the town an underpowered doc (jailkeeper) and a bulletproof townie? The cop+doc combo is very powerful, and with the amount of power we already have I can't help but think the mod would have taken some precaution against it.

I've pointed out several times how dangerous it is to make baseless assumptions and try to outguess the mod, but you ignore me and keep doing it anyway.

He's trying to sell it, but he doesn't believe in it.

Charter will surely pick Sthar8 over himself

Yes, I was waiting to see if my 'scum will propose WIFOM case right away' theory panned out.

vote sthar8

[charter]

unvote

Actually, I thought about it. If CWR is scum, then we would have just handed him the win. I reread a couple of posts from yesterday and BB had CWR as his top scum suspect. Plus, there is no need to put him at L-1 if CWR is indeed scum.

I need to do my reread, but I'm still almost positive it's sthar8.

[strife220]

CWR being scum is too unlikely to consider.

[charter]

But not worth the risk of just throwing the game away.

[strife220]

Eh. Of course if you wanna re-read to be Extra sure then go ahead. But I'll be shocked if you come up with a case against him that's anywhere close to the case against Sthar8.

Waiting on CWR. No need to argue excessively with Sthar8 if we're all on the same page.

[sthar8]

My theory is that you knew that this was coming and knew that the town would have no choice but to lynch the doc. I figured the last scum would use WIFOM right off the bat to try and get me lynched as opposed to actual arguments as to why I'm scummy.

Remember when Oman was talking about misuse of the term WIFOM? Congratulations, you've proved his point. WIFOM is only applicable when there is no dominant course of action for either side. In this case, mafia have a clear, solid advantage if they eliminate the doc right away. Down comes the house of cards. And where do you get the idea that I don't see any scummy behavior from you? I pointed out the day 1 case against you, which was dropped only because you claimed doc. Since then you've laid low and spent most of your time agreeing with strife and picking on minor inconsistancies. We've always had someone scummier to lynch, so there was no need for you to take any risks.

He's trying to sell it, but he doesn't believe in it.

Since no one will actually

think

about this, the only thing I can do is present countercases based on the same faulty logic. I'm showing that even by strife's unsubstantiated norm (you know this is a theme game, right?) his assumptions don't hold.

I'm touched that you all read my case and examined my arguments logically instead of blindly following some insane value judgements to a town loss, and I think it's very protown that you are all going to give me the time that I asked for instead of quicklynching me.

Oh Wait...

[strife220]

Time you asked for? To do what?

Mod

I know it's only been like 44 hours, but could we get a prod on CWR?

[charter]

Ok, not WIFOM, but still not arguing as to why I'm scummy. I did a reread of CWR outing Darla, if they were scum, he didn't need to out her as he did. So while it's technically possible, I agree with strife that it's so remote as to not worry.

vote sthar8

[sthar8]

Ok, not WIFOM, but still not arguing as to why I'm scummy

So what is it? Balloon animals?

If you really need more, lets further examine some of your positions since day 1. You were against lynching Muerrto on the day that WK claimed, you expressed no suspicions of darla until almost everyone else had already done so, you tried to push the CWR wagon even once the darla one had gotten underway, but you switched your vote to darla once it was clear she was going down. In contrast to your hesistance to vote for scum, your day 1 play shows no caution with the placement of your vote, and you were willing to vote for CWR and BB right away later in the game. You may bring up the fact that one of your day 1 votes was for darla, but I'll remind you that your vote was the only one on her at the time

and

your reasons were garbage. We have a name for that, and it begins with a D.

I did a reread of CWR outing Darla, if they were scum, he didn't need to out her as he did. So while it's technically possible, I agree with strife that it's so remote as to not worry.

Who are you talking to here? Because I'm pretty sure that strife has expressed this opinion already, and CWR is not going to vote himself. If you're telling

me

these things, and not buddying up to strife, then may I ask what part of my vote for you has you convinced that I think CWR is the scum?

Time you asked for?

Regardless, I'd appreciate it if you guys would give me a few more days of life to work something out before murdering me.

To do what?

Since it doesn't matter now, I'll tell you. When I realized that you have some kind of erotic fixation on me, I realized that the greatest chance for a town victory would be if I were dead. I PM'd the mod to see if I would still win with the town if I intentionally had myself modkilled. I was waiting for his reply. I just received a PM from him that makes it clear that Allah will be offended if I choose that route, so no dice. (I briefly considered doing it anyway, but he'd probably end the day and make scum win, and even if he didn't I'd rather share a loss with you than hand you a win that you don't deserve.)

At this point, it looks to me like we only have one shot at a town win. If CWR is town (which I have to assume at this point) and I can convince him not to vote for me, we can force the no-lynch. If strife is town (which I also have to assume) scum choose between killing CWR and strife. If they kill CWR, I need to somehow deprogram strife and make him realize that charter is scum. If they kill strife, then I need to convince CWR that I'm innocent. Our chances are slim at this point, but I'd really like a win here, so I'm going for it. CWR, if you need any help deciding to vote for charter, just let me know.

[ClockworkRuse]

Forcing a no-lynch today would have little to no effect. That said, I am not willing to hammer sthar.

First of all, I do not need any help with my vote. I'm not going to let anyone manipulate my vote like that.

Second of all, the 'doctor has two strikes' argument has annoyed me all game. I wouldn't risk the chances of charter becoming active and posting consistently and I fail to see how not killing the doctor anyways wouldn't have helped the scum. UNLESS they really were going for a 'omgz, the doctor is alive" argument.

Third, Charter, I brought up that argument day two if you remember. I was wondering why you were still alive? I have to admit that I'm still wondering it but I'm not convinced enough to vote you.

I'm going to have to re-read soon when I have some more time.

[Flameaxe]

VC here!

[sthar8]

Forcing a no-lynch today would have little to no effect. That said, I am not willing to hammer sthar.

If you die, it might make it easier to convince strife that he's wrong. If strife dies, we have a majority to lynch charter. I can't die, and charter won't kill himself. Since strife seems to have made up his mind, I can't see any other alternative besides the no-lynch.

First of all, I do not need any help with my vote. I'm not going to let anyone manipulate my vote like that.

You know very well that I was asking if you needed any clarification on my arguments. Don't be silly.

Remember to keep your activity up, CWR. You getting modkilled will guarantee a scum win.

[strife220]

Just to chirp in,
Scum have no motivation to send in a kill tonight if a no-lynch was reached. At some point the four of us will have to reach a majority.

[sthar8]

I was hoping no one would suggest to scum that they no-kill, because that makes it exceptionally harder for us to win.

On the plus side, any residual doubt of CWR's alignment is now gone. If he were scum, he would have won already, so I know for sure now that I'm not wasting my time trying to convince him.

[ClockworkRuse]

Well thank you.

sthar, you seem to be under-estimating the intelligence of the scum which I think is a bad play. We should always assume that the scum are going to make it harder for the town, right?

Strife, why are you convinced it's sthar?

[charter]

Any questions for me? (also avoiding modkill)

[strife220]

Well thank you.

sthar, you seem to be under-estimating the intelligence of the scum which I think is a bad play. We should always assume that the scum are going to make it harder for the town, right?

Strife, why are you convinced it's sthar?

I think I posted my reasoning fairly well already. Bad claim, no kill N2 (when BB jailed him), process of elimination, no play inconsistent with being scum, process of elimination, etc etc

[charter]

My daily post.

[ClockworkRuse]

Well thank you.

sthar, you seem to be under-estimating the intelligence of the scum which I think is a bad play. We should always assume that the scum are going to make it harder for the town, right?

Strife, why are you convinced it's sthar?

I think I posted my reasoning fairly well already. Bad claim, no kill N2 (when BB jailed him), process of elimination, no play inconsistent with being scum, process of elimination, etc etc

I can see your points with this, I really can... I'm still just thinking everything over.